Not much chirping is heard around canaryseed markets this week, with neither old nor new crop showing any major price swings. It’s worth noting that old crop values continue to sit around the $0.42-$0.43/lb FOB farm range for prompt delivery, however, bids seem to drop about a cent as delivery is pushed past immediate needs. New crop indications are holding steady around $0.34-$0.35/lb FOB farm, including an act of God clause. This suggests growers holding any canaryseed should strongly consider making sales on product in the bin before spot and production values converge. Further sell signals include a couple of purchasers pulling back on value, indicating comfort with the tonnage they’ve already secured. Spot and production contracts remain attractive with old crop sales offering cash flow and bin space before harvest, while new crop sales secure earlier movement and a decent hedge against market downside. Firm offers are still being considered, but the urgency to purchase seems to be waning.

Pea planting is in full swing, albeit slightly behind schedule in Saskatchewan, where reports suggest around 25% was seeded last week. Although the widespread moisture was largely welcomed, planting pace now lags the 10-year average due to rain delays and we start to see a need for vigilance against potential disease issues if wet conditions persist. Overseas, another cutback in Russia’s expected production was reported, though they’re still anticipating a large crop. Additionally, India’s extension of the zero-import tariff until October should shed further light on the new crop yellow pea market. Domestically, old crop bids remain steady for now, but some buyers are gradually shifting towards new crop pricing. Currently, old crop yellow peas are priced at $14-$15/bu FOB, greens at $20/bu delivered, and maple peas are showing indications at $27-28/bu picked up. New crop pricing for yellows is in the range of $11-11.50/bu, greens at $14.50/bu, and maple peas at $20-21/bu, all picked up on farm with an act of God clause.

Barley prices have remained largely unchanged for another week, hovering around $5.00-$5.50/bu picked up in the yard with movement extending to July. Despite fewer barley acres being planted in 2024, the carry-over from 23/24 and continued corn usage are expected to offset any significant price rallies before the end of the crop year. New crop bids mirror old crop values, with a lack of any major eagerness from both buyers and sellers at current levels. Sideways pricing is mainly influenced by ample corn availability in the US, suppressing domestic feed use. Those considering moving barley before new crop arrives should act sooner rather than later, as markets show limited prompt shipping options. Malt markets remain stagnant, with little demand for either spot or production contracts.

Flax markets have been rather uneventful as bids continue mostly sideways again this week. According to the latest StatsCan report, overall, flax prices dipped from the previous highs of $17.00/bu FOB, with indications now closer to $16-$16.50/bu picked up in most areas and we’d have to concur. Demand seems quieter than only a couple weeks ago, though opportunities to make sales exist and growers continue to trickle product into the market at these levels. The pricing gap between Western Canada and Europe remains significant, potentially spurring some renewed demand heading into 2024/25. While Canadian flax acres are decreasing this coming season, a supply cushion should be provided from the expected carryover. Yellow flax prices remain relatively stable, with indications at $20-$22.00/bu picked up. New crop prices mirror old crop, providing an opportunity for those looking to secure future contracts.

Chickpea statistics remain a puzzle, with Canadian production vs export figures still uncertain, making it exceedingly difficult to grasp the true picture of this crop. This inconsistency is rather uncomfortable as StatCan seems to have adopted a more speculative approach of late. As prices continue to decline, it’s evident that on-farm inventory remains abundant, and buyers feel no urgency to make purchases. Despite an uptick in inquiries for both new and old crop values, there’s a noticeable reluctance to sell. This sentiment is understandable given the scarcity of reliable information on local supply and demand dynamics. Perhaps it’s time for a palate cleanser. Here’s a recipe for chickpeas you might enjoy: Rinse and dry a can of chickpeas, coat them with oil and a generous amount of salt, then bake for 20-30 minutes in a 425-degree oven. Once out of the oven and still warm, toss them with pinches of your favorite spices. Snack on these as you navigate the markets, and who knows, maybe we’ll spark new demand!

The wheat markets have been relatively stagnant this week following a robust first half of May. Although Canadian stocks are lower than last year, growing conditions in Western Canada have shown improvement, with rainfall alleviating drought concerns, at least temporarily. There’s speculation about production from Russia and how weather issues might impact output, but nothing definitive has emerged yet. Seeding progress has been hindered by rainfall in many areas, causing delays, but work is still underway, albeit with the added challenge of moisture-induced breakdowns. Feed wheat prices remain steady, ranging from $7 to $7.50/bu picked up on farm, depending on the region, while milling prices hover just over $9 for CWRS and CPSR. There’s still some interest from buyers in hard white wheat, so if you have any in storage or plan to harvest some in the fall, feel free to reach out.

It sounds like the soybean futures market is experiencing quite a bit of volatility lately, driven more by geopolitical factors and government actions rather than traditional supply and demand dynamics. The increased tariffs imposed by the US government on Chinese electric vehicles and other products have definitely added uncertainty to the market, as traders are eagerly await China’s response. Additionally, the potential for expanded Brazilian acres and a stronger Argentine economy could further contribute to downward pressure on soybean prices. However, factors such as weather conditions, final seeded acres in the US, and actual production levels may help mitigate some of this downside risk. It’s interesting to note that despite the turbulence in the futures market, local soybean prices are still relatively strong, trading between $13.00 and $14.50/bu FOB farm depending on location. This suggests that there may be some insulation from broader market volatility at the local level. Given the current landscape, it seems like caution may be warranted for those involved in the soybean market, as uncertainty persists, and downside pressure remains a concern.

Lentils markets continue to back off from this year’s high prices. Several factors seem to be contributing to the drop in prices, including favorable weather conditions, anticipation of a new crop supply, and reduced overseas sales due to low stock availability. The recent rains across the prairies are providing a positive start to the growing season, alleviating some moisture concerns. However, it’s noted that while these rains are beneficial, they may not fully guarantee high yields. Overseas buyers appear to be holding off on purchasing until they see signs of potential production shortages, indicating a cautious approach to procurement. The red lentil market seems to be mirroring the movement of green lentil prices, suggesting a lack of independent dynamics in that market segment. Here’s a breakdown of the current prices: Old crop large green lentils (LGL): $0.78-$0.80/lb; New crop LGL: $0.53-$0.55/lb; Old crop small green lentils (SGL): $0.75-$0.77/lb; New crop SGL: $0.46-$0.48/Lb; Old crop small red lentils (SRL): $0.32-$0.35/lb; New crop SRL: $0.30-$0.34/lb.

What an eventful start to the week it has been for canola. Monday saw a robust surge in the market, only to encounter a significant downturn yesterday. However, signs of recovery are apparent today. At present, July futures are at $656.10/mt, while November values hover around $675.80/mt. Despite the strength in futures, basis levels have taken a hit, limiting local cash bid gains. Canadian stocks have risen, up by 17.5% from last year according to StatsCan’s March 31 report. Consequently, capitalizing on these market rallies to move old crop and free up bin space seems prudent. Supportive pricing has been sustained thus far, thanks to active export participation and Chinese interest. However, any forthcoming pullback could introduce volatility. Additionally, South American rainfall issues are unlikely to positively impact soybeans, thus minimizing the potential for any residual benefits for canola.

Mustard continues to trade in the same price range as the previous week with seeding progressing steadily in most areas. Recent rains in South and southwest Saskatchewan, as well as southern Alberta, have created favorable growing conditions, particularly in traditional mustard-growing regions. However, a concerning trend this year is the increase in US mustard exports coupled with a decrease in imports from Canada, contributing to current price dynamics. On a positive note, the EU’s plan to impose a 50% tariff on Russian oilseed imports starting this summer may potentially boost Canadian demand. It remains to be seen how this unfolds over time. Spot prices for yellow mustard remain in the low to mid 50 cent range, while brown and oriental varieties sit in the low 40 cent range. New crop prices are currently in line with spot pricing, inclusive of a 10bu/ac act of God clause and offering movement from September to the following July for optimal pricing.

The oat market hasn’t undergone any dramatic changes since our last report. Presently, bids for #2CW oats stand at $5.00/bu delivered for summer movement, with the caveat of no glyphosate. While there are markets open to glyphosate-treated oats, indicated values suggest a slightly softer stance. We suggest you contact your merchant for market opportunities on glyphosate treated product. Production contracts remain elusive, with buyers appearing mostly covered, but this week saw an opportunity for growers to sign $4.50-4.75/bu delivered plant. Given the favorable moisture conditions at this stage and little inclination from purchasers to increase bids to secure additional volumes, growers should consider these opportunities when they pop up. For now, we will likely play the “wait and see” game as the growing season progresses, at least until the market can depict an accurate picture of what the 2024 harvest has in store.

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.