Midwest soybean planting is progressing and thus weighing on any strong gains in the soybean futures. Local bids are location dependent and range from $17.50 -$18.00/bu FOB farm. Insurance agents in the US northern dry bean growing region are beginning to field prevent plant calls from farmers. Deadlines are several weeks away, but some acreage shifting is occurring to accommodate shorter seasoned crops. In Canada, a somewhat fainter Loonie has been supportive for dry bean bids. New crop specialty dry bean bids are between 50¢-60¢/lb delivered. Due to a robust Aussie crop and moderate export demand, our domestic faba market remains largely ruled by the domestic feed values. New crop faba bids are showing up around $15.00/bu FOB farm for a #2. Old crop feed faba bids are near $13/bu FOB farm and when old crop #2 demand periodically occurs, it is often near $16/bu FOB farm.
Wheat continues to have more up days than down, with supply being the driving force behind this market. This is evident after the way markets responded to India putting export restrictions on wheat this past weekend. India felt it necessary to implement the restrictions as they have reduced their crop size by 5.7%. This just put more pressure on a wheat market that was already short by 50% due to drought, flooding and of course, the war. This market will likely continue to be strong until things get resolved between Russia and Ukraine. Markets this week see CWRS No 1. 13.5 protein trading over $16.65, CPSR at $16.12, SWS at $15.55, and feed wheat at $15.00/bu. As wheat surpassed durum prices this week, it will be interesting to see if durum starts to rebound and follow wheat up, or if wheat will remain on an island of its own.
There has been very little movement in pea markets and/or pricing this week. Old crop yellows remain priced at $17.00/bu picked up, greens at $14.00 – 14.25/bu picked up, and maple peas have the odd trade done at $17.00/bu on farm depending on variety and location. New crop pricing remains stagnant, but strong at $13.50 – 14.00/bu picked up with AOG for both yellows and greens, while maple peas will likely trade at $14.50/bu picked up. The pea market has been a little quiet as farmers are bullish based on Black Sea news, and the uncertainty of how many pea acres will get planted and ultimately harvested. Buyers haven’t been pushing bids as India remains a non-player, and China’s feed pea demand has disappeared as they turn to lower priced soymeal. It seems like what might change the opinions of buyers and farmers is if we continue to get rain throughout this growing season.
Barley continues to see some good values once again this week with old crop feed bids being posted at the $9.00/bu FOB farm range. In the world of dos and don’ts, barley is currently sitting in the do category. We would highly suggest offloading any remaining stock in the bins and begin preparation to fill them for what we hope to be a promising harvest this year. The malt side of things remains quiet, but we suspect you can still catch values around the $11.00/bu picked up range for good quality. If this price interests you, call in with your specs and let us find a firm bid FOB your farm. Moving on to the new crop side of things, we don’t see much change from old crop bids with feed barley posted around $8.80 – $9.00/bu FOB farm without act of God. New crop malt still shows interest around $9.50-$10.00/bu, in some cases FOB farm, with act of God. These values pencil in as a good sell for a certain percentage of expected production this year. With rain in eastern Sask delaying seeding, one would expect we might have some sporadic changes in seeding plans, and potentially see more barley being seeded than initially anticipated, given the shorter growing period. Although some remain hesitant to sell given last year’s poorer crop and growing conditions, these numbers just make sense today.
Oats seem to have found a little bit of life in the past couple of days here. Although the price has not spiked and, at this point in time, we don’t expect to see any big upswings, at least buyers are starting to get some more tonnage on the books. Old crop oats remain in that $8.00 – $9.00/bu for a #2 CW, but this is a very area dependent value. Feed oats are always of interest so if you are looking to move some, your best bet is to call in with your quality and let us do the work for you. New crop oats are boasting a $6.00/bu price and trending up a few cents should one lock in a later delivery period. Although this comes as a DDC, given the price, locking in a certain percent of your expected return is a good idea today. There might be a few buyers out there still entertaining the roll over option, so be sure to inquire when marketing your crop. As we have seen all year, if you’re looking for an option like this or even a little higher price, firm targets may grab buyer attention. As is always the case, we are just a phone call away, so feel free to call in to learn more about your options.
Unchanged chickpea markets are no surprise. Canadian demand is steady, but not pushing the ceiling of value. In fact, Canada imported 2500MTS of Australian chickpeas recently. Mexico completed their chickpea harvest at the end of April and was predominantly made up of larger sized 9 and 10mm product. While Mexican acres were up 20% from the previous year, growing conditions produced a smaller crop compared to a year ago, coming in at 152,000MTS. This is 8% less than last year and less than what Mexico would export on a standard year. Old and new crop bids out of Canada and the US remain relatively firm and considerably attractive. This would be due to a concern over the acres planted and the yield potential, given current growing conditions. Current crop #2 Kabuli are bid at $0.50-$0.52/lb FOB farm for May-July movement pending location. New crop #2 Kabuli’s are valued at $0.50/lb with an AOG or possibly higher on firm target. Sample quality chickpeas are valued at $0.30-$0.32/lb depending on downgrading factors.
Despite the 2021 flax crop being 40% smaller than the previous year, the higher prices have limited export demand. The US continues to be the dominate buyer for Canadian flax, and although prices are still strong ranging from $39-$40.00/bu, we can expect hand to mouth buying until new crop becomes available. New crop prices are sideways this week at $30-$31.00/bu picked up with an act of God. So far, there hasn’t been any increased demand for Canadian flax headed to Europe, despite interruptions to Russia’s exports. Analysts suspect 2022 supplies in Canada and the US won’t be large, but that there will be more supply than 2021 crop, which will give the market some room to breathe. China will continue to rely on Russian flax.
The lentil market continues its sideways trends of late; up a little here, down a little there, overall, not much change. Oversea markets have not picked up as some thought they would when India dropped tariffs on pulses. India still has not been a buyer, and at this point of the year, we are getting right up against where new crop and old crop prices meet – so the window to catch an old crop premium is drawing to a close. Current bids on reds are at 41 cents picked up on old crop #2 and 39-40 cents picked up on new crop with an act of God. Large green bids are showing 44 cent/lb range on a #2 new crop bid with act of God, and old crop is still catching 53 to 54 cents picked up on farm. If you dabble in niche lentil crops, estons are bidding 50 cents on #1, richleas are 40 cents USD on #1 US quality, and French green lentils are worth a whopping 100 cents/lb picked up on farm, so, sell those, if you have them.
Prices on mustard were stable this week as planting continues and rain falls in some mustard growing areas. The slight softness in spot bids did continue this week as more buyers report some decent coverage. Thoughts about the Russian crop are being talked about and it is likely strong prices have encouraged more acres to be planted there. But the big question is on shipping. Will trade restrictions limit their ability to sell and push even more trade to Canada? This will be something to watch as the war drags out. New crop values remain similar to last week: yellow, brown, and oriental mustard are all sitting at $0.92-$0.95/lb FOB farm, with an Act of God including drought. Spot levels have the price around $1.90 on yellow, but some bidders remain down in the $1.70 range again this week. The sought after $2/lb FOB seems to be unattainable on yellow for now as it appears that ship has sailed. Brown remains at $2.00/lb for a June/July movement, which is still outstanding. Oriental has slipped a bit to about $1.00/lb FOB farm.
When it comes to canaryseed, there is not much new to report in the way of pricing. Old crop targets are still triggering at that $0.50/lb FOB farm mark on a case-by-case basis, with the majority of buyers posting bids around $0.48/lb. New crop values also remain unchanged over the last couple weeks, if not months. Despite hopes of stronger production contract values, $0.40/lb with an act of God is nothing to brush over. Getting 10 bushels to the acre locked in at this price is a power play move for sure. We suspect there may be more canaryseed sitting in the bins than we think, even though we’ve seen rather slow trade the last few months. Chances are one shouldn’t expect any sporadic price spikes from now until harvest, where buyers will be able to readdress their needs for the 22/23 season. For any sales targets above market value, call in today to post a firm offer, as we have been seeing these marketing tools gain buyer attention.
While planting progress needs to be watched, it is expected that canola acreage will increase year over year. European Union production is forecast to increase by 8%, with many question marks surrounding the Eastern European production. Total Canadian canola disappearance during the first three-quarters of the crop year amounted to 11.6 million MT compared to 17.4 million MT last YTD. Global veg oil supply remains a hot topic of conversation and has underpinned domestic canola values. Strong old crop values are often readily available, subject to the wild cycles of recent market volatility. At the time of writing this, old crop values are in the range of $26.25-$26.50/bu FOB farm and new crop values sit in the range of $23.75-$24.00/bu FOB farm.
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