The oats market is as cold as Antarctica in December. Very few trades have been taking place on the both the milling and feed side of things. That being said, we do always have buyers looking to make some deals. #2 CW oat indications are between $2.25-$2.50/bu picked up in your yard. Price is dependent on location with bids seeming to be stronger the further south you are. For feed oats, prices are right around $2.00-$2.25/bu picked up dependent on location just like the milling oats. We have heard some new crop pricing around $3.00-$3.15/bu delivered into southern Manitoba for a Sept-Dec movement.
Like most markets these days, the chickpea one is quiet. Bids on old crop or new are still floating around, but firm numbers are getting tougher to track down for those that are looking to lock something in. Currently, we still have a few interested buyers around the 30-cent mark on across the board on sizing new crop Kabulis. We do have another buyer who had interest in new crop. This program related more to chickpea sizes, so if you have interest call the office for more details on that. Current crop prices are hard to find as both the supply and demand seem to have dried up, but if you happen to have product we can make some inquires to see what we can track down. The Mexican harvest is expected to be an above average yield on larger acres, so any market demand that is around likely has headed south already.
As seeding is coming along, Saskatchewan progress is rapidly advancing. Stat reports are indicating that Saskatchewan is at 64% complete on pea plantings. However, the pea markets haven’t seen a whole lot of change on the pricing side. Green peas are still sitting competitive at $9/bu delivered on old crop and $8.00-8.25/bu picked up on new crop. Yellow peas are trading at values closer to that desired seven-dollar value, but not quite there yet, at $6.75/bu picked up. The market for pea fractions is growing in North America, which is offsetting some of the lack in Indian demand. There is a market need for higher protein levels and we still have a pricing option for yellow peas at $7.25/bu picked up based on protein specs.
Flax prices this week are holding steady with $12.50-$12.75/bu picked up in the yard on old crop, in select areas, for both #1 and milling quality. New crop prices range from $12.25-$12.50/bu FOB depending on movement. Until recently, there has only been average demand. Modest amounts have been hitting the US in the last couple of weeks. Some analysts write that stocks are not as low as the March 31 StatsCan report, but do agree that 2018/19 could be a year of tighter supplies. Even if there are reduced exports to China and the EU, exports to the US are likely to remain steady due to its reduced acreage. This would leave Canadian ending stocks to potentially drop below 100,000 tonnes. The other factor that plays a role are the volumes of supply left in the Black Sea region. We saw exports slowdown in March from Russia and Kazakhstan, but inventories were still at a record. This suggests that volumes could pick up again as there is not a lack of supply. If you still have off grade flax in the bins, we can get it moved out before new crop comes up. Call your Rayglen merchant for options.
The canaryseed market has seen little to no change. Prices have been very stagnant and trading around 21c/lb FOB the farm. New crop contracts have seen no change either, sitting with indications at $0.20/lb FOB with a full Act of God. As of last week, there was 26% of the crop in the ground, up from last year at the same time, when only 20% had been sown. The five-year average is 19 % at this time. It seems that the western part of Saskatchewan has better growing conditions then in the eastern part of the province, although most producers are concerned over dry conditions.
There is not much to report on the feed wheat market. There is little to no change again this week, with values still quite strong. As most have heard or know, there are many concerns of dry weather for much of the prairie provinces and the United States. Time will tell how this will affect the market if moisture conditions don’t improve. Old crop contracts are still trading around $5.50 to $6.00 range FOB the farm pending location. We might see milling values bump up a bit if it remains dry throughout the major US growing areas and the prairie provinces. New crop prices are still around the same as last week, with some buyers sitting around $4.75 FOB on a DDC (Deferred Delivery Contract) – NO AOG.
Barley is more of the same deal as last week. We are starting to see buyers covering their needs for the next few weeks, which is why our prices are backing off a bit. With that being said, this dry weather could definitely put a scare in supply and field grazing for the summer, so prices may shoot right back up, or even higher than we have seen. Lots of the prairies are in need of some moisture and hopefully that comes sooner than later. For prices this week, barley is sitting around that $4.60/bu FOB farm mark. New crop barley with an Act of God is still available at $3.85/bu FOB farm for winter time movement. Offers are a great way to catch a high in the market so make sure you are talking to your merchant on those.
Soybean markets have been watching weather and trade talks lately. As evidence, beans are up today based on reports that Chinese buyer Sinograin has been inquiring about US soybeans this week. US soybean planting progress is near 60% complete, which is ahead of last year and ahead of the 5-year average pace. The large Brazilian soybean harvest still looms large over global soybean trade. A concern for US exports is the recent strength of the U.S. Dollar compared to the Brazilian Real, which has recently positioned Brazilian export prices on par with U.S. Gulf export prices. Local soybean bids have recently ranged between $11.00-$11.20/bu FOB farm depending on location. Local faba bean bids are in the $6.25-$6.50/bu FOB farm range for feed quality depending on location.
Canadian lentils are in a market fight with an overabundance of product. New numbers out this week show India’s forecast for next year is that the acres are going to increase again. Kazakhstan has exported more lentils this year and we are predicting a carryout of at least 395,000 MT. This news reiterates the message that we are overstocked with lentils. We have 10-12 weeks of shipping left before new crop will be hitting the market. StatsCan reported last week that we shipped 5,200 Mt of lentils, so if that number stays the same until end of July we will ship 52,000 MT in railcars, that’s 52 cars per week. Divide that by 4 major buyers and it works out to be 13 cars a week. If we continue at this pace, it will take 76 weeks to just use up Canadian ending stocks. Now come fall, shipping should increase. This year Canada shipped, on average, 22,0000 MT/month. If we get back to this number it will take 18 weeks to use up Canadian ending stocks. These numbers are why buyers are not getting too excited about reports of the dry weather yet as they know we have carryout that will cover them for awhile. This is the news that no one wants to hear, but this could be the reality if everyone keeps producing average to above average lentil crops.
Canola markets finished the day slightly stronger after a $2.50-3.00/MT gain on both nearby and new crop contracts. Support came from stronger soybean and oil markets and a weaker CAD, making it cheaper for importing countries. As mentioned in the bean comments, most of the upticks are due to dry conditions in Canada and the USA. Basis levels remain attractive for both old crop (as low as $3.00/MT under) and new crop (as low as $25/MT under). This puts bids delivered to plant at roughly $12.00/bu #1 old crop and $11.25 #1 new crop. Call to put in your canola target today; a good way to push the market and capture small, but profitable, premiums.
Mustard values again remain the same this week on little to no news on the mustard front. Seeding in most parts of Alberta and southern Saskatchewan on mustard is basically on pace with the 5-year average. Some growers in the southwest have reported to us their seeding is complete and now are waiting for timely rains. This does seem like an opportune time to get some old crop moved in June possibly, and new crop production locked up. Yellow mustard sits at $0.34/lb on old crop and $0.35/lb on new. Old crop brown varieties continue to hover around $0.40/lb on old and $0.33/lb on new crop. Finally, oriental mustard values hover around $0.27-$0.28/lb for both old and new crop, with a small opportunity for better spot values if you have Vulcan variety. With most of the prairies nearing completion on seeding, mustard seed and deliveries are coming to a close. If you are in need of some last-minute seed, please contact us and we will do our best to accommodate you.
Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.