Flax pricing, like weeks past, continues to be determined by short term buyer need, with exciting sales opportunities few and far between. Prices range anywhere from $14.00- $15.00/bu picked up for the summer months, but the latter is tough to come by. Seeded acres are expected to be at least 17% lower year over year, but due to a large carry-out, supplies could increase by 10% compared to the current crop year. Unless Canadian prices can be aligned more competitive with overseas markets, it could prove difficult to increase exports. Russia continues to be the dominant supplier of flax headed to China, shipping close to 10,000 tonnes according to analysts, while Canada shipped less than 4000 tonnes. U.S. flax bids have softened, which means sales to our neighbours to the south are put on hold. There is a chance that those sales could pick back up for 2023/24 due to the smaller US flax crop being planted.
Not much change to mustard markets this week with growers reporting good planting pace and generally favourable conditions. Once again, the highlight this week is spot yellow mustard, which likely still trades in the mid 80 cent/lb range FOB farm as buyers fill some short-term gaps. This is remarkable if you still have some product in the bin, and we urge growers to consider making final sales; you have not missed the train yet, and we cannot see this price getting stronger once these needs are met. Spot brown might trade above $0.70/lb, while oriental could trade at similar levels, depending on variety. It remains critical to talk to your merchant about firm offers on spot mustard to ensure you capture the best opportunities as buyers still might be willing to step up to get some brown and oriental also. New crop bids with an AOG on 10bpa and FOB farm are still trading. Bids change daily it seems, so call us for bids tailored to your farm. Yellow might have some tonnage available around $0.67/lb (still a very strong value), while brown and oriental sit in the low $0.50’s range. These contracts would all be for Sept – July 2024 movement, with possible options for quicker shipping at a discounted value.
Peas roll into the end of May without much market change to report. Old crop yellows peas are still sitting around $10.50- $11.00/bu FOB farm, but demand remains lack luster. The new crop side of things remains unchanged as well with growers able to pencil in $9.50 – $10.00/bu FOB farm including an act of God. Old crop green peas had looked like they were going to take a bit of a run this past week or two, but since seemed to have flatlined around $13.00-$13.50/bu FOB farm for a #2 or better quality; offers closer to $14.00/bu may still get some interest and growers are encouraged to try this marketing strategy. New crop values come in around a dollar less at $12.00-$12.50/bu FOB with an act of God. There seems to be a bit of renewed buyer interest in old crop maple peas, so if you have product on the farm, we highly suggest calling in and let us get to work for you. Although buyers do not seem to have deep bids at the moment on, we continue to see light daily spot trade. With the lack of anticipation for any type of pea to go on a run, growers should strongly consider getting more on the books before new crop and old crop values converge. With rain in the forecast, we hope to get a good kick start to the 2023/24 growing season and fill those bins.
Chickpea acres are underway with planting progression, but already we can see delays, which could mean a change to the number of acres that go in to meet insurance deadlines. Globally, Argentinian exports have been down, and Turkey has been steadily importing for domestic use. This can be translated as tight supply. Mexico has also chimed in with their harvest reporting 5-year average yields, but with reduced acres, their production is expected to be the smallest in the last decade. If these global players are looking to North America for supply, it is an easy translation for values to maintain strong tone into the next production supply. Current crop interest has all but disappeared as quickly as it arrived. Buyers are getting, “no bid,” from the end user and growers are hoping for another tender to perk up the markets. New crop values are still coming in around $0.46/lb FOB farm with an AOG, but it is not rich enough for producers to trigger yet. Every day is a new marketing day with chickpeas, as players work hand to mouth with no one willing to take any risk on a speculative position.
Canola futures are up marginally, at the time of writing this morning, after taking some rough losses last week. Currently, July is sitting at $703/MT down from $730/MT around this time last Wednesday. Canola losses, as expected, line up pretty close to the losses in soybean markets, with the veg oil market as a whole taking some stumbles. Spot bids on canola today maintain a wide range with some locations showing $15.50/bu range delivered, while other locations are still flirting with levels closer to $16.50/bu delivered in. This goes to show it pays to look around for options if you need to make a sale this time of year. The large differences can be traced back to variances in basis levels and who needs product more than the next guy. Overall, seeding pace is a little behind normal, but it is also a strange year as areas in the north that are usually behind most of the southern areas have been able to set the pace due to decent conditions and a late snow in the south.
With lentil seeding about 50% complete, the market seems to have shifted its main focus on locking up new crop acres. New and old crop small red lentil pricing has nearly converged with bids sitting between 32-34 and 34-35 cents/lb, respectively. Reds seem to have hit the normal spring/summer slowdown as overseas trade calms, and with the pricing gap narrowing, this market should remain stable for the near future. Large green lentils continue to show outstanding values with old crop trading at 55-56 cents FOB, while new crop trades at 50 cents/lb for #2 or better spec, AOG included. Keep an eye on LGL’s as yearend supply will be tight, and India also showing some concern regarding both old and new crop pigeon pea supply. These factors paired with rumors of recent large green tenders hopefully mean that this market will be relatively stable as well. Small greens hold steady this week with old crop trading in that 48-49 cent range and new crop at 45 cents with an act of God. Buyers are also trying to get some more coverage on old and new crop medium green lentils (Richleas). As most of the these are grown in the U.S.A., pricing is being reported in US dollars. Old crop is trading at 36-37 cents and new crop at 32-33 cents/lb FOB farm with an AOG. Firm targets are encouraged on green lentils this week.
Oats maintain the same storyline week in and week out. Many oat buyers remain out of the conventional market as their needs are covered. The feed buyers who have interest are buying around the $3.50/bu FOB farm mark in SK, with MB opportunities opening up and seeing indications at $4.00/bu delivered. There are opportunities to sell organic oats, with $6.00/bu delivered bids in the east central part of SK available for June through August. New crop organic oats can be contracted today between $6.50-7.00/bu depending on delivery time frame. With record high carryout, some buyers believe we won’t see a bump in fall pricing, and we may be waiting until early 2024 to see any gains. If anticipating any price changes before then, we’ll have to turn to see what the weather will bring and how this year’s crop begins to take shape.
Wheat prices are on a bit of a rollercoaster lately. Prices retreated last week after the Black Sea grain deal was extended, then rallied again after Ukraine accused Russia of keeping one of the Ukrainian ports out of the deal. Despite the up and down, buyers are at the table with interest in different varieties. This week’s wheat prices are hovering around $9.70/bu for CWRS, $10.50/bu for CPSR and $9.80/bu for CWRW – all delivered SK, delivery month dependent. Feeder interest into Lethbridge is seeing values at $10.50/bu FOB farm and $10.80/bu delivered in. New crop prices delivered into Lethbridge sit around $9.30/bu. Turning to durum, Italy continues to see a strong crop, but with continuous rain, quality becomes an issue and could lead to higher quality exports out of Canada. With dry conditions in Spain and northern parts of Africa, growers and buyers alike have their eyes on Canadian weather. With analysts suggesting that the highs on old crop prices have come and gone, many are encouraging growers to sell before their needs are covered. Old crop durum bids sit at $11.25-11.50/bu delivered SK, location dependent, while new crop values have continued to creep down to $10.50/bu delivered SK.
This year, soybean domestic use as well as exports had slightly increased. Production creeped up to 6.5M tonnes up from 6.2M tonnes last year. The coming year will see yet another increase to 6.7 M tonnes, but with an anticipated reduction in domestic crush use. Globally, Argentina’s production of soybeans is expected to reduce from 36M tonnes to 32M tonnes, the lowest in 15 years. This is in relation to drought weather conditions. With a mixed bag of information, domestic bids are $17-18/bu FOB farm with freight sensitivity. The jury is still out on faba bean acres as we move through seeding, but it is expected to see a decrease with the rise in other competing commodities. Bids for #2 faba beans range from $13.50-$14.00/bu FOB farm with buyers entertaining offers. Feed quality values are near $10.00-$10.50/bu FOB farm location dependent and with buyers of a wide range of quality. If you are questioning whether you can sell it, snap a pic for reference and give us a call.
Canaryseed pricing has seen a little tick up here this last week with bids hanging around $0.37-$0.38c/lb picked up on the farm for May-June movement. StatsCan indicates that supply has increased 6% over last crop year with our major exports heading to the EU, Mexico, and Middle East. There is talk that seeded area is set to increase, which will be something to watch as grower sentiment seems to be flat acres. With a strong bid of $0.34-$0.35c/lb available with an act of God, it’s not a bad time to get a bit locked in at historically high new crop prices.
The knot on the tie is pretty snug regarding barley carryover into the 2023/24 crop year, with estimates sitting around roughly 730Kt. Bids remain firm with pricing at $7.25-$8/bu range depending on farm location and shipping window. Most buyers are posting summer delivery, but there may be a few opportunities left for late May and/or early June. New crop acres are projected to be slightly up this year from last, but below the 5-year average. Increased acres are pouring out of AB, but the intentions of SK and MB show acres pulling back. Globally, acres are expected to decline by 3%, which could prove to be bullish for the market, but we’ll have to wait and see how this turns out. New crop acres maintain tone ranging from $6-$6.50/bu on a DDC (no act of God).
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