The spread between old and new crop pea values is slowly disappearing as export business slows and farmers opt to not chase the market. Old crop yellow peas are hard to come by with the majority of bins cleaned out, however, there still seems to be a decent supply of green and maple peas in the bin. Current bids on yellows are indicated at $9.00/bu FOB, while green pea bids are harder to find, but indicated at $9.00-$9.50/bu FOB. Maple pea bids are at $9.50/bu FOB ($10.00/bu delivered) in most cases. New crop is almost on par with old crop pricing with yellows at $8.50/bu FOB, greens at $9.00/bu FOB and maple peas at $9.50/bu. Right now, it is not looking like India will reduce the tariffs on the yellow pea side, as per reports. India’s pricing on peas has faded, so if pea pricing remains low the incentive to reduce the tariff also decreases.
Widespread rains across the prairies over the past week offer some relief for 2021 crops. Prices remain solid for flax with $23.00/bu FOB available for the product still in the bins. Analysts believe we have seen the highs on flax for the year so take advantage of these last few buyers who have their bids elevated. New crop pricing also is steady with pricing anywhere from $16.50-$18.00/bu picked up with an act of God depending on movement timeframe and location. Flax supplies going into the 2021/22 crop year are only anticipated to see a small increase from last year, so we can expect new crop prices to carry-on sideways. What is changing are the movement periods. If you are looking to move some flax out of the bins shortly after harvest, then locking the movement in is just as beneficial as the price.
The Soybean market is under pressure due to improving U.S. weather conditions and above-average planting paces. Market losses were limited by a dock worker strike in Argentina during peak export season. Local soybean bids are reflecting buyer coverage and have slid to now hover around $15.00/bu picked up depending on location. Buyers are encouraging any reasonable offer to be brought forward rather than a posting a standing bid. Generally speaking, buyer attention has turned to new crop as recent rains increase the likelihood of an average crop. However, buyer inquiries for higher quality fabas have slowed, with $9.00/bu FOB farm being a reasonable target for #2 quality. A reduction in new crop dry bean acres has prompted a bit of an uptick on old crop values with some buyers.
The inevitable has happened to the barley market as rain has hit throughout most of the Prairies over the past few days. Prices for old and new crop have begun to slip, but we are still seeing some strong values. Old crop bids range between $5.90 – $6.30/bu FOB farm, while new crop sits anywhere from $4.70 – $5.10/bu FOB farm, freight dependant. We suspect old crop values to continue to slide in the near term, given the recent moisture and diminishing time until harvest. For the most part, the assumption is most buyers will work with what they have on the books for now and take more of a “hand to mouth” approach until new crop hits the bins. Now is a great time to lock in any remaining old crop and some new crop to hedge against the downside. An increase in seeded barley acres adds fuel to buyers eventually converging spot and production values and it is unlikely production values will increase. Getting some on the books now not only guarantees you a great price, but also secures quicker movement, bin space and cashflow.
Seeding in the Prairies should be wrapped up soon and timely rains have definitely started 2021 crops in the right direction. However, wheat markets in general have seen a dip since last week based on improved crop conditions. Milling wheat with 13.5% protein now trades around $7.90 to $8.00/bu delivered to plant for June/July movement. Near term bids are the strongest with further out delivery values declining. Small discounts are still seen for 12.5% wheat, with bids around $7.75 to 7.85/bu delivered for June/July. The durum market has slipped as well, now trading around $9.00/FOB in the Southeast part of Saskatchewan. The feed wheat market has softened to $7.00 to $7.50/bu FOB in much of the province. The closer you are to feedlot alley the better the prices usually are based on freight advantages.
Canaryseed markets remain unchanged despite most other commodities taking a step back this week. After a general rain event, growers who are still holding old crop or planting new crop may want to get some product on books as we aren’t sure how long these prices will hold on. We are a long way from getting the crop in the bin, but right now crop conditions are looking very favourable in most areas. New crop bids are still holding on at 33.5 cents/lb delivered to plant, or 32.5-33 cents/lb FOB farm pending freight. These contracts still include an act of God on the first 10bu/acre. If you are on the fence about new crop, sooner than later would be suggested. Old crop is still sitting at 35 cents/lb FOB farm with Summertime movement. You may be able to shorten the delivery window on a firm offer, so please let us know what you’re looking for.
Oats…now here’s a commodity that’s content to idle in place with no new changes to report pricing wise. There is some buyer interest in old crop milling oats around that $3.70/bu range picked up on the farm depending on farm location. Flipping forward to new crop, look for mid to higher range $3’s for 2-2021 movement and $4 to maybe a smidge more for delivery in the new year. On the feed side, we have buyers looking for 38lbs plus product for the feeders. We suggest giving your merchant a call with specs and location to get some pricing and movement specifics for your area. Last but not least, most areas should be off to a good start as this past weekend’s welcomed rain has hit many zones. Now, let’s bring on the warm weather and sprinkle in a few more showers to finish this crop strong!
Canola futures have continued downwards over the past week, seeing losses in all futures months. The speculative July futures sit at $873/MT, dropping far from the $922/MT we saw a week ago. The November futures, which are what most buyers are now using for physical purchasing, have fallen to $694/MT. This is compared to last week at $713/MT. The substantial rains across the prairies have no doubt had an impact on the canola market but spec fund and grower selling has also put some pressure on prices. Some late frost issues may result in reseeding in some areas of the Prairies and is something to keep an eye on moving forward.
Chickpea markets remain steady this week. The recent rain has dropped values for cereals and lentils, but the chickpea market is not having the same response. All eyes are still on India as to whether or not tariffs will be reduced and exactly how that will affect the market. Old crop bids are unchanged from last week, hovering around $0.35/lb FOB farm for a #2 large kabuli and new crop about the same. There is still demand for high damage or green chickpeas with bids ranging from $0.22-0.25/lb FOB farm. General market feel is that there is more room for an uptick in the market. When? Well, as a chickpea grower you maintain posture and wait. There is no defined timeline, but the market is more affirming that it is in the cards than not.
As the lentil crops enjoyed the rain these past few days, we cannot say the same for the markets. Old and new crop lentils have seen a slight drop in value this week. Markets are seeing pressure from improved crop conditions, selling pressure and lack of overseas interest. The rain was widespread with varying amounts, but it was enough that the market is satisfied, for the moment, that there will be production, easing the urgency to purchase both old and new crop. Producers are making new crop sales rather consistently now, trying to catch the remaining high-end bids. Pricing this week is best described as a moving target. The latest red lentil trades are taking place at 33 cents/lb FOB farm, for both old and new crop. Large green lentils have traded as high as 40 cents in the past week, but the majority of bids are coming in at 37-38 cents/lb and getting harder to find. New crop large greens are indicated at 36-37 cents with only a couple buyers at those levels. Lastly, small green lentils are trading at 34 cents for old and new crop. Let’s hope that these markets find some stability before values dip lower.
Mustard prices remain steady so far this week with no changes yet, but as we all know significant rains have occurred in all the mustard growing areas over the past long weekend. This seems to ensure at least a decent start to the mustard crop and is a big swing from getting reports of seeding into dust just last week. Even the US planted mustard area has had some good rain as reported by growers across the border. Mustard bids are seeing yellow as high as $0.50/lb for old crop and similar values for new crop with varying delivery windows. Oriental sits at $0.35/lb for Forge & Vulcan and $0.33/lb on Cutlass for product in the bin, while new crop Forge sits at $0.35/lb & Cutlass at $0.33/lb for Sept. to July movement. Brown is bid at $0.40-$0.41/lb on old crop with new crop as high as $0.43/lb for Sept. to July pickup. After the rain, these prices look very strong, so it may be a good idea to get some product locked up. Shorter pickup times are available on new crop bids with discounts for December and March deadlines.
Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.