Flax prices remain firm again this week, ranging anywhere from $14.00-$16.00/bu depending on quality. For those with higher moisture flax or higher dockage, we do have markets available as well. New crop brown flax is hovering around $13.00/bu, FOB and including an act of God. There have been some wetter conditions in northern Sask, which has kept the seeding progress behind average, but the delays aren’t serious yet. Canadian flax imports into China have dropped with Kazakhstan and Russia taking the top positions. Kazakhstan is already indicating increased flax acres for 2020. Canadian flax prices likely to hold until new crop starts to come off. One of the key factors in our prices holding is that US crushers are short supplies on both sides of the border. However, issues with decent supplies of quality flax available, suggest short supply down south likely won’t be resolved until the 2020 crop is off.
As seeding progresses, the pea market remains unchanged from last week. Old crop bids for yellows are $7.50 – 8.00/bu FOB and green peas are at $10.50 – 11.00/bu FOB. Exports on peas this year have been steady, which will have our ending stocks on the low side. We experienced limited export competition from the Black Sea region compared to other years, as per reports. This was due to the fact that they not only had a smaller supply, but were also affected by export restrictions. For our 2020/2021 crop year, we are going to be looking to China’s continued support in importing Canadian peas at current levels. If so, we could see our pea supplies tighten even more. New crop bids are at $7.00/bu on yellows, $9.00/bu on greens and $8.00/bu on maples.
As of this past Monday, there was still about 3.4% of last year’s barley to be harvested in Saskatchewan. After this week we expect most producers to wrap that last bit of harvest and in many areas, seeding. Alberta seeding progress is strong as well, with a reported 57.4% completion in barley. The feed barley market has been pushing forward with strong prices this last little while. Product trades between $4.00 to $4.50/bu depending on location. Malt barley on the other hand has slowed right down. With sporting events and other entertainment coming to a standstill, we see global demand drop. Malt producers and brewing companies have stopped production to varying degrees. The small craft brewers have been the most affected.
Strong Chinese demand and easing tensions between the world’s largest economies coupled with slowing US planting pace has offered strength to the soy complex. Local bids are hovering near $10.00/bu picked up being somewhat location dependent. There is some debate as to dry bean new crop seeded acres in the wake of the recent Stats Can report. Industry consensus is that acres are up slightly in response to market signals. Mexican production levels will have the largest impact on US demand for Canadian new crop production. Faba bean seeded acreage is expected to increase for the third straight year to somewhere near 130k acres. Faba old crop marketing opportunities have steadily diminished from the March export peak. New crop values for #2 grades are hanging near $8.00/bu.
The feed wheat market has picked up steam as we get later into the crop year. Prices have strengthened to $5.10-$5.50/bu FOB farm depending on location. Strongest prices are further west with most product heading to southern Alberta. These prices are based on minimum 58 lb wheat with a maximum moisture of 14.8%. We do have homes for product not meeting those specs with discounts to apply. July Minneapolis spring wheat futures have softened a bit from the same time last week and Saskatchewan bids remain around $6.30-$6.40/bu delivered to plant for summertime movement. Prices based on #1 quality and minimum 13.5% protein levels.
Chickpea crop estimates look to be 30% lower than last year with a substantial carry over. The producer’s reluctance to sell has generated some value to the bid side of the market but these pops of opportunity are short lived and infrequent. Weather conditions across western Canada have been above average with seeding wrapping up and growers have been in good spirits as they contemplate their next moves. Prices for current crop have had a bit of strength with bids moving day to day from $0.27-$0.29/lb FOB for a #2 or better spec. New crop values range from $0.24-$0.28/lb FOB farm with an AOG perking up a bit in certain locations, but the majority are the same as they have been week after week. Sample and feed quality are coming in at $0.12/lb.
Old crop milling oats remain firm this week at $3.75-$4.25/bu delivered into plant, depending on location. New crop values hover around $3/bu with freight sensitivity and better value for longer shipping periods. Buyers are always looking for off spec quality, but each lot is treated specifically for their down grading factors. Call for possible marketing options.
Lentils markets remain stable for another week. Reds continue to trade as high 30 cents delivered for old crop and 23-24 cents for new crop with an Act of God. Large green lentils remain in that 31-32 cents range for #1/X2, 29-30 cents for #2, and 24 cents for an X3. New crop remains in that 28-29 cent range with an Act of God Small green lentils remaining at 26-27 cents for both old and new crop #1 spec. Lentil shipments this year are out pacing last years by almost double, this will change what ending stocks were predicted to be at the being of the year. This should help keep current prices stable for both old and new crop as stocks maybe tighter than expected. We may see new crop prices change depending on final seeded acres.
Canola futures took a bit of a dive late last week with July dropping about $10/mt from $473/mt to just under $460. We have gained a couple bucks back in the last few days but have been mostly trending sideways this past week. Most of last week’s losses can be drawn on a straight line from soybean troubles stemming from escalation on trade issues between US and China (have we wrote this before?). So, the big countries will throw their weight around a bit and everyone on the boat gets to deal with the rocking. Last week our weakened Loonie helped to slow some of our losses but this week the Loonie has pushed up some, which hampered gains in canola following bean strength. Current bids range from $9.35 picked up in yard to $10/bu delivered plant depending on what you’re looking for so not too exciting prices. Our next hurdle to keep an eye on for canola, is the fallout of the extradition case this week and what affect that has on this market as China likely won’t be happy with this result.
Canaryseed pricing continues on the same path this week as last, where old crop continues to trade at $0.28/lb FOB farm for June/July movement. Now, if we roll back the calendar one year, for comparison, spot canary was trading at $0.23/lb. That’s a pretty good spread. At the time on farm stock was plump and now things are more so on the tight end, hence the continued price support. Flipping to new crop, we are seeing firm bids of $0.25/lb FOB farm with some grower targets triggering at $0.26/lb FOB farm on 10bu/acre act of God. Production acres are increasing over last year due to lower carry-in stocks as well, canary has a viable return versus other crops.
Mustard prices remain generally stable this week. Weather, news about projected acres seeded and overseas shipping seem to have little to no effect on the value. It might be a good time to put some new crop on the books at 10 bushels per acre with act of god. There are still some attractively priced contracts available. Yellow mustard sits at 37 cents for spot and new crop. Spot oriental mustard sits at 27 cents for Forge and 25 cents for Cutlass, summer movement now, June to July. New crop is sitting at 29 cents FOB for Forge or Vulcan and 27 cents now for Cutlass. Brown trades at 27 to 28 cents FOB for spot and as high as 29 cents for new crop. Call your merchant for any offers and talk about possible targets.
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