Chickpeas seem to be on the back burner of buyers’ minds this week and a general topic of non-discussion as of late. That said, posted bids remain strong and current values are still at, “sell,” levels, with old crop pricing floating anywhere in that $0.50 – $0.52/lb FOB farm range for #2 or better quality. Purchase demand is soft, however, so anything over and above these numbers seems to be unattainable at this point. New crop contracts can still be secured around $0.48/lb FOB farm including an act of God; a decent starting point for the 2023/24 season. New crop markets are similar to old crop wherein bids quoted don’t appear to be deep, so we suspect once buyers purchase some tonnage, the price could pull back again. Producers waiting for higher values can post firm targets for our buyers to see in case of market rallies or small, “one-off,” short coverings.
Canadian mustard has been exported at a healthy pace, which is expected to continue into the 2023/24 season. The unknown that could hinder our export pace is U.S. production, which, if large enough, could decrease and limit the amount of product Canada ships south across the border. European processors are still building up their inventories and the war in Ukraine has had little effect on mustard seed supply of Russian origin. While Canadian mustard prices have declined somewhat drastically over the past few months, this will ultimately help us keep market share and remain competitive on the global stage. While most mustard bids are really just indications at this point, there is still some purchase interest for old and new crop of most types. To capture the best value, it’s important to talk to your Rayglen merchant as prices fluctuate daily on; call us for up-to-date information and pricing in your yard.
A very slow situation continues to plague the flax market with bids only appearing occasionally, usually for small tonnages. Prices continue to range from $14.00- $15.00/bu picked up for the summer months, but trade remains slow. Seeded acres were expected to be down quite a bit this year and we do not see any evidence throughout seeding that would point to the contrary. Again, Canadian prices need to be aligned more competitively with overseas markets, so it will prove difficult to increase exports in the near term. Russia continues to be the dominant supplier of flax headed to China, as there are rumours out there of them stockpiling for future needs. When does this market start to pick up? Acres are down in both Canada and the US, and it will take time, but perhaps there is hope for better markets in a few months.
Soybean futures continued downward from yesterday. These losses are being driven by a sense of weakening global demand. US planting pace is progressing quickly with an estimated 83% of soybean acres having been planted. Local bids are still holding up quite well at $17.00-$17.50/bu FOB farm, location dependent. Dry bean bids are stubbornly unchanged. From a larger perspective, the market remains well supported, just generally inactive. Feed quality fabas continue to be supported by pet food values. Local bids on export quality #2 faba bids sit in the range of $13.50-$14.00/bu FOB farm and feed quality values are near $10.00-$10.50/bu FOB farm, location dependent.
Canaryseed planted acres are expected to increase about 6% year over year to 310,000, which is in line with longer term historical planted acres. Old crop volumes are thinning out with less inventory being brought forward from the farm gate, but we do see the odd load trading. New crop canary acres continue to trickle in and hit the books this week as bids move up slightly compared to last week. Old crop bids are in the 38¢/lb FOB farm range and new crop shows good opportunity at 36¢/lb FOB farm with an act of God. Growers looking for a touch more can try out a firm target to try and squeeze a little extra value out of this crop.
The pea market is split; yellows remain soft, while greens seem to be holding and gaining even more buyer attention. The yellow market has gone cold in most areas with buyers seemingly reluctant to purchase as they don’t want to be caught with a long position in a market that is showing little interest. Russian peas have also hit the Chinese ports, which is not helping our domestic market. At this time, reduced acres and reduced supply are not enough to help yellows rebound. One glimmer of hope may be a specialty program in SE Sask and MB which is showing values at $11/bu FOB – call for more details on this program if you’re in those areas. Buyers have shown more interest in number #2 green peas this week with product trading as high as 14.50/bu FOB farm on firm offer (average value is closer to $14/bu). Buyers are not looking for big lots of peas, but they all seem to need 3-4 loads, so now may be the time to make additional sales. New crop green peas are priced at $13.00/bu delivered to various locations throughout the province and will likely include an AOG. Maple peas have been lightly traded for the past couple of weeks, but when buyers are looking, they do seem to be willing to pay, so keep a close eye on this market and these potential opportunities.
Wheat markets are not happy at the moment. Heavy world supply and a lack of weather threats around the world are all pushing the market down. For the market to see some recovery, we will likely need to see more weather concerns in North America and if US wheat and corn crops are successful, this will add to more pressure on the wheat market. At this point, the market looks like it will continue to trend down with small rallies on reported weather news. It is a long time before the North American crop hits the bins, so anything can happen, but don’t expect to see any big rebounds for the short term. Current #1 HRS milling wheat is quoting in the range of $9.60/bu delivered plant. Moving to feed markets, wheat is now trading at $9.55 FOB farm in certain locations. With both markets being this close, it may be time to take advantage of feed markets where you can get the most bang for your buck.
Lentils continue to be one of the heavier traded items this week with buyers showing both new and old crop interest. Opportunities on all types are seen, but large greens seem to have stolen the spotlight as old crop bids jump to $0.60/lb FOB farm for most areas. New crop bids followed suit and bumped up a few pennies to trade at $0.52/lb FOB farm with AOG. There are multiple opportunities for medium greens (richleas) today as well, with buyers in need of prompt movement and willing to pay $0.37/lb FOB farm in the common richlea growing areas. For freight advantageous areas, there may be opportunity for higher bids as we have seen $0.40/lb FOB farm trade (please note all richlea pricing is in $USD). Small greens stay competitive, trading at $0.52/lb FOB farm old crop with new crop not far behind at $0.47/lb FOB farm in SK. Reds continue to hold strong, but they seem to have the largest discrepancy on new crop price between buyers. New crop red values can trade between $0.30-$0.34/lb FOB farm in SK, while the gap in old crop is narrower at $0.32-$0.34/lb FOB farm. With such strong new crop pricing across all types, we see this as a great opportunity to lock in a portion of your bushels with Act of God and help remove some of the risk for this year’s growing season. Turning to world markets, many are focused on the weather and waiting to see how El Nino develops for major lentil producing countries. So far, some key lentil growing areas in Sask have received some timely rains and the forecast looks promising for the near future. For lentil crops in India and Australia, the El Nino development could bring warm and dry conditions, reducing the crop potential of these pulse producing players.
This week, oat markets continue down the same path they’ve been on for days, weeks, and months. The amount of oats being sold into the conventional milling market is next to nil. After reading all the reports, talking to buyers, and reviewing this year’s estimated tonnage carry-overs, one should not expect this tone to change anytime soon. We do continue to see some demand for feed oats, but bids remain unchanged with indications still sitting around $3.50/bu FOB farm for relatively quick movement, which, at this point, screams “sell.” With the anticipated large carry-over and 2023/24 new crop off to a great start, and poised to hit bins relatively soon, cleaning out the cupboards, giving yourself some cash flow, and freeing up bin space is a power play move. On the organic side of things, we still have some demand for new crop around $6.50 – $7.00/bu, but when buyers cover some tonnage at these values, we expect them to pull back.
The barley market has been holding onto similar pricing levels these past few weeks with bids continuing to show value between $7.25/bu and $8/bu depending on area. The feed barley market is pretty reliant on the direction of corn markets, which have been stronger through the first part of this week, and after a rough day yesterday, have gained a bit of ground back this morning (Wednesday). With rain looking to be hitting some of the driest areas that produce a good chunk of the feed barley, the new crop market could start to get a bit unstable, so now might be the time to make a move if you’ve been on the fence. Feed prices for the fall can still hit north of $6/bu at the moment, but things can change on a dime, so keep that on the front burner.
Canola is taking a bit of a beating again with futures in the red this morning. Canadian supplies are a little on the tighter side, but plenty of world supply is balancing this out. With the soy market dipping down, canola slides along with it as it often does. Old crop pricing sits at $649.50/MT at time of writing with Nov futures at $624/MT. What a drop we’ve seen since the beginning of Jan when prices peeked at $874.50/MT. Do we see $12/bu canola in this next bit? Where is the bottom? All answers we anxiously wait on, so stay tuned and keep a close eye on this market.
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