Once again pea markets go another week without much change or excitement. Yellow pea prices are posted at $10.00/bu delivered, but supplies are getting hard to come by. Green peas have seen a couple of firm targets hit at $9.50/bu FOB, but trades have been limited with buyer and farmer price expectations not quite matching up. New crop values remain at $8.50 – $9.00/bu FOB on yellows and $9.00/bu FOB for green peas. As seeding gets underway, pea acres are forecasted to be down from last year, with most of the decline coming from green peas. Moisture conditions also remain a factor as almost every area would welcome some rain, so we will have to see what the next few weeks will bring. For maple peas, pricing also remains the same as last week, $10.00/bu FOB on both old and new crop (in a few areas) has traded.
Barley exports continue to rise and outpace previous years as pricing remains extremely aggressive. Feed barley has been trading at $6.30 – $6.60/bu FOB for June – July movement. If you still have some feed left in the bin, now might be a good time to get your barley priced out at these all-time highs. New crop feed barley is also posted at $5.00 – $5.50/bu FOB (deferred delivery contract) with the latter being seen in Southwest Sask. As you head into Alberta, prices on both old and new crop will get stronger. Malt barley remains quiet on both old and new, with almost all barley trades being priced into the feed market.
Chickpea markets are much the same this week, with old and new crop values unchanged around $0.33/lb FOB farm. Old crop delivery windows are posted as June-July movement, while new crop is quoted as September-December with a full AOG. Rumblings of seeded acres increasing since the last estimate seems to have no effect on value so far, but whether those reports ring true is yet to be seen. We must factor in the carry-over from years past, which is sure to play a role in values. That said, a generally firmer tone is felt and if you do not like the current price and are holding out for $0.35/lb or higher, don’t be scared to throw out a target. Throughout the past couple of days, the Prairies have seen some scattered showers and reports are showing that we might be in for some more precipitation over the next couple of days. Cross your fingers and toes, that we receive this much-needed moisture and start 2021 crops off the right direction.
Canaryseed is steady for another week as buyers look for both old and new crop with aggressive bids. This week, old crop canary is trading at 35 cents/lb FOB farm for May-June movement, while new crop bids are posted at 33.5 cents /lb delivered into plant. Pending freight costs, most FOB farm bids on new crop are penciling out between 32.5-33 cents/lb. New crop contracts still have an act of God, but as seed hits the ground and we get closer to product in the bins, expect to see the act of God clause taken out. If you are thinking about locking some production up, sooner than later might be the best option.
For 13.5% protein #1 Milling wheat, bids are coming in over $9.00/bu delivered to plant for May movement this week. For product that meets that spec but is only 12.5% protein, growers can expect to see a slight discount at around $8.90/bu with the same movement. There is still time to lock in new crop milling wheat around $8.50/bu delivered on 13.5% protein product for Nov./Dec. shipping. Durum bids are very strong as well and are trading between $8.50 to $9.00/bu FOB for Summer movement down in the Southeast part of Sask. Bids fluctuate from those values the further North and West you move. Feed wheat remains strongly priced as well and has been trading between $7.50 to $8.50/bu FOB farm depending on location. Prices in the wheat market continue to be very attractive this week.
Lentils remain stable this week with not much change in pricing at the farmgate, despite values having dropped in India. The recent drop in India can be attributed to the recent spike in Covid cases. India is still tight with lentil stocks but as cases rise, fears of a major lock down support the thought that the country will be using less food in the short term. Long term speculation is that they we will have to come back to table and buy lentils. Back here in Canada, seeding is underway and as farmers hit the field we expect selling to slow as focus shifts to getting the crop into the ground. Market analysists are suggesting that the Fall supply could be tight, based on acres and an average yield. The big question mark is how many more lentils will ship yet before the end of the year and what is really in the bin for stocks. Moisture concerns also seem to be in the back of everyone’s mind; if we see rain in the next couple of weeks expect farmers to take advantage of the new crop pricing, with new crop markets most likely softening as contracts start to book.
Seeded acres of flax are only pegged to increase by 6% over last year, which will make it difficult for flax supplies to increase significantly for the 2021/22 crop year. Global flax markets will depend much more on production out of the Black Sea region. Prices on flax remain strong with a small pool of buyers purchasing at $23.00/bu FOB into Summer months. New crop also remains between $16.25-$16.75/bu FOB with an act of God depending on movement timeframe. These record prices weren’t caused by low supply but rather strong export demand. Flax prices in Europe have declined by about $75US per tonne as they get more supply coming in from the Black Sea region. StatsCan will release stock estimates later this week and analysts expect to see numbers lower than they have been in the last 20 years.
The canola market continues to reach new heights this week. At the time of writing, May canola futures are trading at $933/MT which is up from $900/MT last week. July futures trade at $905/MT which is up significantly from last week at $834/MT. November futures have also been gaining strength this week, trading at $727/MT, which is up from last week at $689/MT. If you have not sold all or any of your canola, you’ve made the right call, but as the old saying goes, “prices take the stairs up, but the elevator down”, so now may be time to hedge what’s in the bin. It is still generally dry across the Prairies and farmers will start seeding canola very soon if they have not already started. We will need to see strong yields this year to keep up with the demand that is currently seen, but there is no saying demand will continue at the current pace.
There is not much noise in the oat market lately. Things seem to have tapered off with only the odd old crop bid popping up here and there for either milling or feed. As such an offer may be a great way to go. Expect to see milling prices in the upper $3’s with feed around the low end $3/bu picked up on the farm if you can find a firm bid. Farm location continues to play a major factor on price. On new crop milling oats, bids are more abundant, sitting around $3.50/bu for fall with delivery in new year onward ranging from $3.75 – $4.25/bu. The closer you are to Sask/Manitoba boarder the better.
Faba bean prices have not seen a whole lot of change in recent weeks as bids for #2 quality are few and far between but remain around the $9/bu on farm range. Buyer interest in feed fabas still seems to be around $8.50/bu at the yard, which is a solid price to clean out the bins. Soybean planting in the US continues at a faster than normal pace this year and a shrinking supply of old crop has been bullish news for the futures market. Higher Loonie values will keep a bit of a cap on prices as an 81c Loonie is a pretty big difference from 71c a year ago. Current bids on soybeans are still around $15/bu but tougher to track down as many buyers are fairly covered for the time being. Firm targets are encouraged as business is very hand to mouth and they don’t want to own what they can’t sell.
Prices remains strong and steady in the mustard market as talk continues to circle around the acres being planted this year. Is the StatsCan estimate a little too high? Competition for acres this year is certainly an issue with commodity prices being so strong, so we will see where we end up in short order. Looking at recent weather conditions, it seems that the mustard growing areas remain dry with everybody needing rain. This is adding a little fuel to the fire on both old and new crop for picked up with an Act of God on 10 bushels. Today’s bids are seeing yellow at $0.45/lb for old and new crop. Oriental old crop sits at $0.35/lb for Forge and Vulcan and $0.32 for Cutlass, while new crop Forge sits at a strong $0.35 and Cutlass at $0.33/lb for Sept. to July movement. Brown is bid at $0.40-$0.41/lb on both old and new crop. Shorter pickup times are available with slight discounts.
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