Oat markets have had a few more buyers come to the table over the past couple weeks. Price indications on a good #2 CW are now $2.50-2.60/bu picked up on the farm pending location. Feed oats continue to trade at $2.00/bu FOB farm, again based on location. Buyers are willing to take light oats, down to 30lbs/bu, at these feed values. If you have a target in mind, talk to your merchant, we have been having good feedback from our buyers on firm offers. If you can hold your oats into the new year pricing becomes a bit more aggressive. All pricing is location dependent and most of our buyers are taking oats out east, but this market isn’t as quiet as it has been over the months.
Canaryseed bids are likely to remain flat for the next few months. Historically, it’s the season when values don’t see much fluctuation, but some suspect we could see a bump coming into the new. Canaryseed inventories in Thunder Bay are getting ahead of the bulk shipments to Europe. That is why the price hasn’t done much – inventory is comfortable. When stocks are tight, that is when the price jumps up a bit, which as mentioned doesn’t usually happen this time of year. The 2017 crop year produced between 125,000 to 130,000 tonnes of Canaryseed this year. Only 9% smaller than last year’s crop. The quality this year has been very good and of little concern to buyers. The price on canary is sitting between 20 to 21c/lb FOB the farm.
Flax remains one of the bright spots in the commodity world as most others continue to slide. Prices are still trading at $12.50 FOB farm for milling and 12.50 delivered for number 1 flax. Estimates are suggesting smaller Canadian stocks and larger FSU stocks. We are starting to see milling quality flax deliveries getting pushed out till Jan-Mar where #1 quality is moving quicker with Dec-Jan delivery still available. With #1 number quality still having good movement this would suggest that China is purchasing more rather than European countries. Yellow Flax remains quiet as buying has been slow, with production contracts still in the process of being delivered. Prices remain around $13.50/bu FOB farm with a couple offers triggering at $14.00 FOB farm. With pulses not moving that well, flax may be an option for cashflow.
Feed wheat markets remain steady as prices float along sideways. For max 1 PPM vomitoxin wheat, trades are still taking place between $4.50-$4.85/bu picked up in the yard. There is opportunity for a slight premium at $5.00/bu FOB for producers in the south-east corner of Saskatchewan as well. Durum bids took a slight uptick in the south east, with bids going back to $8.00/bu picked up in the yard, based on a #1 US spec with a discount schedule to apply. If you have any questions or interest in marketing your durum be sure to send in grade sheets or samples and talk with your merchant.
Feed barley prices are a little stronger this week as the slipping loonie has made US corn a little more unaffordable and helped our local barley market. That will probably remain the case this year; the local barley price will follow corn bids closely. The moment barley is “too high” the feeders are quick to start bringing in cheaper corn by the carload. Current bids are at $3.75/bu picked up in the yard in central SK with bids stronger to the west and weaker to the east. We do have some options that have firmed up lately for selling malting barley with bids at $4.25/bu FOB farm for both 2 and 6 row varieties on the eastern side of Saskatchewan.
Peas have slipped back slightly this week from last. We are now seeing Australia targeting the Chinese market as well, which is adding more competition. The Canadian pea supply is important, but it doesn’t dominate the market as it used to. Prices in most areas are $7.75/bu delivered to plant, but if you are in the south-east corner we are seeing $7.75 FOB farm but for a later movement. We are starting to see programs on new crop show up as well. These new crop programs require a spot sale of equal tonnage to match the sale of new crop tonnage. Make sure you are talking to your merchant on that.
We have seen some action in mustard prices over the last week. We have 43 cents picked up both #1 brown & yellow mustard, and up to 34 cents on oriental. Sask Ag has reported 87% of the 2017 crop grading a #1, however the carry over from 2016 was majority #2 or lower. Better quality means fewer obstacles of moving mustard into the export market. With Ukrainian mustard prices turning higher since mid-July, we could expect some more price support. We have not seen the prices react the way the Black Sea region has yet, and with the US being Canada’s largest customer, demand has only been routine which is keeping a lid on prices. There are some new crop prices now available, up to 42 cents per pound on yellow mustard, up to 38 cents on brown mustard and up to 35 cents on oriental. These are all picked up in the yard with an act of God. Call your Rayglen merchant with more details. We also have certified seed available. With pulse commodities dropping in prices, we could see some more acres turn to mustard. Running some numbers will show great returns per acre.
Soybean harvest in the US has progressed to 83% complete versus the long-term average of 84%. As reported earlier, Brazilian soybean planting progress varies with the amount of rain received. In general, Brazilian farmers have planted 30% of the soybean crop, which is in line with the long-term average, but lags behind last year. However, the northern states trail the average and are as low as 6% planted versus the southern states are 73% planted. Despite harvesting the largest soybean crop in six years, Chinese imports aren’t likely to skip a beat. Of the roughly 100 million tonnes that China consumes annually, their domestic production of 13 million MT would only represent about 13% of total annual use. With recent changes in our currency, local soybean bids are $11.00/bu FOB farm range. Local faba bean bids are in the $6.00-$6.20/bu range for feed and $6.75-$7.00 FOB farm range for export quality.
Canola markets remain attractive and at profitable levels. A sharp dip in the Canadian dollar has pushed this commodity higher as importers are able to purchase canola and it’s bi-products at cheaper values. Chart wise, canola has peaked over 70 on the RSI (Relative Strength Index) which is a sign that the market is overbought and a correction is due. Taking this into consideration, a sale in canola is suggested to hedge your bets. November futures have pushed up to $514.60/MT while January finished today’s session at $521.10/MT. January and February delivery periods seem to be bringing the best FOB farm bids at $11.00-11.25/bu pending location. Please call with your location and tonnage for more details and firm values in your area.
The chickpea market has been more of a moving target this past week with old crop values bouncing around. Buyers needs are more sporadic and some have shown more interest that others with pricing reflecting that interest. Growers with old crop chickpeas should call in with what they have, to allow a merchant to find the best value. New crop chickpeas remain a very attractive option for next year. We have seen new crop contracts still being done today at 43 cents/lb picked up on farm with a full act of God for Sept/Dec movement. Contracts are based on #2 or better product with discounts for lower grade. Growers looking for seed can still access some, but supplies are getting harder to find. Growers interested in this option should make a decision sooner than later as new crop contracts may become harder to find as time goes on.
Lentil markets remain very sluggish as overseas markets continue to have little interest in purchasing Canadian lentil stocks. This is especially true on red lentils. Prices have dropped to 19 cents delivered early this week, easily making new lows this year. Greens seem to be somewhat stable so far, with #2 large greens trading at the 34-cent mark and #1 small greens at 32 cents. Overseas production is also affecting prices at this time as Australia’s crop is looking like it will be average and India is not reporting any problems yet. It seems the only possibility of a price increase relies on weather problems arising somewhere in the world. Markets could take a significant amount of time to recover.
Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.