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Rayglen Market Comments – November 21, 2019

Canola prices continue on the sideways run they’ve been on for quite some time. I feel like that has been written before, like lots, but it’s the truth. No new news to spur the market with prices. Trade with China remains very slow. The futures roll over carries around a $10/mt premium month to month so there is some encouragement from the market that better opportunities may be on the horizon… but its limited. Delayed pricing programs are still being traded where you can lock in your tonnage, have it taken off your hands in the nearby and leave the prices (futures and basis levels) open for a set period, generally a few months, to allow for market moves. This is a great plan for those with bullish thoughts on the market but issues like higher moisture or high green count posing major storage risks.


The mustard market was steady this week and we are seeing some modest selling on old crop supplies. Old crop yellow mustard would perhaps trade as high as 40 cents in some cases with brown mustard in the 28 to 30 range still. Oriental is still lagging between 23 and 24 cents. New crop with an Act of God has started to appear. We have a great Forge oriental program you can call your merchant about. We would like to hear your offers when it comes to yellow and brown mustard new crop also.  Call your Rayglen merchant to discuss your old and new crop needs and also our wide range of certified mustard seed delivered to your yard! Rarely is it a good idea to try and use your old seed, and we deliver it to your farm treated or un-treated.


The USDA report has come out today and they’re reporting the average price for durum is looking to increase for this upcoming year. Weather events have provided major havoc on this commodity, hence the sunny outlook. That being said, if you are looking for some certified seed for new crop, give us a call. Expect to see #1 Durum trading around $8.25 FOB in South East Sask. Otherwise, pricing seems to be in that $7.75 -$8.00/bu delivered into plant. Milling quality wheat prices on red spring with 13.5 protein are pulling in $6.10 – $6.50/bu delivered to plant with the latter for pushed out movement. Lower protein milling wheat with 12.5 protein is around that $5.70 – $5.80/bu delivered into plant with new year movement. Feed wheat is still trading in that $4.50 – $5.00/bu FOB farm for dry heavy product. If it’s not making weight or moisture have your grain tested so you are able to market it accordingly.


The oats market continues sideways, much like it has for the past few weeks. We still have buyers looking to see samples of oats that may have been rejected as milling, but were borderline, as they feel that they feel they may be able to use some of this product. If you feel you have oats that fall into that category, get samples to us so we can forward them along and get you a firm bid. For milling quality oats, we have seen trades at $3-$3.25/bu FOB farm depending on location. On the feed side of the market we trade between $2.50-$2.75/bu FOB farm for quick movement. For the top end of the feed market there must be less than 15% sprouted kernels.


Lentils had another stable week with a couple of offers trading higher than posted bids. For the most part though, markets seem to be just “steady as she goes”. Reds continue to trade at 19 cents FOB farm, with the odd offer trading at 19.5 cents FOB farm.  Large green lentils trade between 23 cents and 24 cents FOB farm while small greens show some life for #2 quality at 18.5 cents.  Statscan will release their final production estimates next week, which should give some insight into final supply numbers.  It will also be interesting to see if this year’s numbers are in correlation with 2016/17, the last time we had a prolonged harvest. There is talk of tightening demand in India, but the concern is that if the prices run up too fast and the Indian supply is not as bad as perceived, then there may be more additional trade barriers.  This market will likely just remain steady with potential for slight increases going into spring.


The pea market is still seeing movement on all varieties into this week, with some slight rallies in value. Yellow peas saw targets hit at $6.25/bu FOB and green peas at $10.50 – 11.00/bu FOB. Maple peas also saw a bit of an increase in price to $8.50/bu FOB. We could expect supplies to remain tight on green peas, however, as buyers get covered it could put a ceiling on pricing; downside seems limited. Supplies on yellow peas, won’t be limited and depending on exports we may see pricing gradually incline. It may seem early as harvest has lagged on, but certified and common seed is available and trading steady if you are looking to update your seed or get into a new variety.


Chickpeas didn’t see a great harvest this year and the quality that did come off is all over the map. Compared to last year, yield was calculated at 25% lower, as per Stat reports.  Carry over supplies from 2018, which was mostly good quality, is what will continue to keep our pricing slightly at bay. As India seems to be behind on pulse planting right now, it is too early to say their supplies will be down. Therefore, pricing will likely remain flat till more news comes out of India and Mexico on their new crop. Chickpeas are trading at $0.28/lb FOB on a #2 quality and sample chickpeas have traded between $0.12 – 0.08/lbs depending on quality.


Feed barley prices remain sideways this week with bids ranging anywhere from $3.50-$4.00/bu picked up in the yard.  The further west, the better the price.  Movement times also vary as there is ample supplies of feed moving through the system. Malt barley prices are up upwards of $5.35/bu picked up, freight sensitive. The CN rail strike will progressively back up shipping periods the longer the line is down. Europe and the Black Sea regions seems to have enough barley supplies, although China may buy more from Canada early in the new year. Malt prices are likely to stay sideways according to some analysts for a couple of reasons: a) there is enough cheap barley from the rest of the world and b) this is not the first time the market has dealt with quality issues.


Flax shipments out of elevators have started to catch up in the last 4 weeks. Prices remain mostly sideways with milling quality at $14.00 /bu picked up and #1 quality around $12.50/bu picked up. Yellow flax pricing has had some increases in the last couple of weeks with bids of 15.50 to $16.75/bu FOB depending on movement and quality. There are also some reports that the 2019 Kazakh flax crop has some optimism as yields are better than expected. There are different reports on the actual acreage size, which again leads to uncertainty. Russian flax has been moving into Europe which has kept prices at bay. Even with harvest issues in the US, the bids are not reflecting any shortages. So, with the Canadian flax prices up in the last month, further upside is likely limited. Keep sending us your samples so we can have an idea of what market it would best fit into.


The canary seed market has been very stagnant for a while now and there hasn’t been much movement on the price over the last couple months. Bids at 30c/lb FOB farm for Jan/March movement are the norm and if you are looking for quicker movement, in 2019, you can expect to get around 28 to 29 c/lb. There is nothing out for new crop contracts for the 2020 growing season and although we expect those prices will come out in the new year, it’s never a bad idea to throw out your target price.  According to Statscan, yield estimates are expected to be cut in half due to lower seeded/harvested area and yields. Carryout stocks are expected to get extremely tight, much like every other year, but due to strong pricing, this year’s claim could be true. The price average on the canary seed could rise significantly should this be the case. Watch for attractive production contracts for 2020/21.


Soybean futures have been locked in a downtrend since the middle of October. From a technical analysis standpoint, the futures are hovering near support and will need fresh news to rebound and reverse the trend. Thus far soybean market news has lacked a real game changer and it has been a re-writing of some variation of the same verbiage. So, here we go again, soybeans will need a reduction in US carryout inventory as well as a significant drop in this year’s US production. China trade challenge remains locked with the same rut with no “tradeable” rumors nor news in recent weeks. Local soybean bids are trading in the range of $10.00-$10.25/bu picked up on farm. North American dry bean production has hit serious hurdles in both quantity and quality. This set back has offered support to the current market and it appears this same price support will spill into new crop production contracts. Faba quality and production quantity varies strongly across Western Canada, which is actually the norm. Number 2 export quality zero tannin faba bids are thin but, have achieved $8.50 FOB farm for top-notch quality. Feed faba market is trading a little plus or minus either side of $6.00/bu delivered.


Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.