There is still a lot of chatter on recent news out of India. The pea markets have been quiet, and are expected to stay this way for a while. Turmoil struck when the 50% tariff was first brought to the table, but buyers have had time to adjust, and access the market demand has picked up. Current pricing on yellow peas is $6-6.50/bu picked up on in the yard, pending location. Green peas are still holding well at $8.00/bu delivered. Reports suggest, there is hope that these current low prices will create more demand from other non-Indian exports. However, any price recovery is expected to be modest.
Global supplies on chickpeas had been tight, which resulted in historically high bids. Argentina had frost issues that limited its production and there is slight concern out of Australia’s crop downgrading due to recent rains. These global issues had our prices holding steady and even new crop pricing at 40 cents FOB on a #2 quality with an Act of God. However, these issues in the Southern Hemisphere are only going to keep a short-term upside. High 2017 pricing has many countries including India increase chickpea acres substantially. These Indian and Mexican crops are going to affect us heavily going into the 2018 crop year, which could result in weakening prices.
Flax prices have been steady with milling still indicating $12.50/bu picked up for a later movement, while #1 is anywhere from $12.25-$12.60/bu delivered to plant. Yellow flax demand is still quiet with the odd bid around $14.00/bu. There has been some good export demand from the US and China and with our reduced flax supplies, analysts are predicting ending stocks to drop below 100,000 tonnes for 2017/18. European prices remain capped by availability coming from the Black Sea region. With the Black Sea flax supplies, prices are not likely to impact the market like it did in 2009/10. Short-term gains are likely to be gradual rather than sudden as steady exports go through the pipeline.
Soybean futures, at the time of this report, are up about 10 cents $USD and flirting with $10.00/bu on the Chicago Jan futures. It is suspected that this market bounce can be attributed to Thursdays US Thanksgiving market close coupled with option expiration set for Friday. Earlier this week the market experienced some downward pressure from India’s announcement last week that it was increasing import tariffs on palm oil to 30% from 15%. This notice caused an overall weakening in global veg oil prices. US soybean harvest is estimated to be 96% complete and Brazilian planting is at near normal pace of 71% complete. It should come as no surprise that US soybean exports will play a strong role in shaping market direction this year. Essentially, to get lower US ending stocks it will require a South American production shortfall, which will be to the benefit of US exports. Local soybean bids are $10.70/bu FOB farm range. Local faba bean bids are in the $6.00/bu range for feed and $6.75-$7.00 FOB farm range for export quality.
Stats Canada estimates that canaryseed production for this past year is sitting around 116,00 MT from 254,000 acres. Last year, producers received a yield of 140,000 MT based off 260,000 acres, suggesting this year’s yield was down slightly. The canaryseed market is very slow at best, and pricing and/or contracts are thin. Prices are sitting around 20 to 21c/lb FOB the farm. Producers are very sluggish to sell at these levels. The good news is there may be some upside potential for prices. Many producers are holding to see what happens in the new year.
Oats continue to be quiet from week to week with very little change in the market. #2 CW oats have not changed from last week as values remain around the $2.50/bu mark picked up in the yard. This price improves the further south you get in Saskatchewan. Heavy and dry feed oats continue to trade as high as $2.25/bu picked up in southern Sask with values in northern Sask being closer to $2.15/bu. Slightly heated oats are tradable around $2.00-2.15/bu in the yard as well. As always if you have values in mind for your oats be sure to give us a call and put out a firm offer.
Wheat markets have held relatively unchanged in value from previous weeks. Feed wheat bids are still attainable at 5.00/bu picked up on farm, but will be freight sensitive at this level for max 1 ppm vomi product. We have some programs available for special purpose and CPS milling wheat available with value depending on location and protein levels. Growers looking to move some of this product should call into the office to discuss what options are available in your area. Durum values have held steady the last few weeks with business still being done at 7.50-8.00/bu picked up on farm with Jan/March movement for milling product. New crop durum bids have become tougher to find this week with sales being filled and buyers reevaluating their positions before looking for more business. Keep in touch with your merchant for additional sales if you are looking to get something on the books.
Lentils had a stable last seven days as not has changed much in the markets. No news yet on whether India will impose a tariff on lentils. The tariff will not be as steep as the peas, with World Trade Organization only allowing a 30% tariff to be imposed, but that will still hurt the market enough to depress prices further. Early reports on Australia harvest say they are receiving some rain in lentil areas, but what effect it is having on the lentils is unreported at this time. There will likely be minimal affect to the yield numbers, but could affect quality. Green lentil buyers are not overly interested in purchasing at this time and the buyers that are purchasing are seeing enough farmer selling to cover their positions. At this point in time, there is not much information to suggest a quick recovery on any variety of lentils, so keeping a watchful eye on the markets for any rallies that occur, and take advantage them when you can.
The mustard market is one of the few bright spots in commodity trading over the past few weeks. The spot prices for yellow and brown lead the way for bids right now, with buyers showing interest at 43-44 cents per pound picked up in the yard for movement in the new year. Oriental lags the other 2 mustard types with bids at 32 to 34 cent range depending on variety. If you are considering mustard as a new crop option the prices and contracts are attractive with 32 to 34 cents on Oriental, 35 to 37 cents on brown, and 38 to 40 cents on yellow. Contracts include an Act of God and are priced based FOB your farm. All the new crop contracts are price dependent on movement window, i.e. the longer you have the product in your bins the higher the price is on your contract. For contract options and certified seed opportunities call your favorite merchant for more info.
Feed barley this week hasn’t changed much from previous weeks. Corn continues to put pressure on the barley market with its low prices. Corn is in a 5 year low, which is why we are seeing corn moving into feedlots, and haven’t seen a lot of $4.00/bu barley bid as of yet. If you are looking to move some barley before Christmas you should probably talk with your merchant right away, as buyers are starting to fill up for quicker movement, and moving in a December- February timeline. Prices today are trading anywhere from $3.70- 3.90/bu FOB farm depending on the area. The malt market has been very quiet lately, we haven’t seen much for old or new crop bids, but malt product is still making its way into the feed market with these attractive bids.
Canola markets are slightly stronger today after a $0.20/MT gain. Soy markets helped January canola futures along today, but due to the upcoming American Thanksgiving, there will be a break in trading in most commodities. This means canola is likely to remain relatively unchanged as well. January finished at $513.30/MT with March at $523.30/MT. This put delivered plant bid at roughly $11.25-11.50/bu pending movement period and basis level (ranging between $10/MT under to $25/MT under). Bearish news included better growing conditions in South America, but these reports are minor in the big picture. As mentioned in the Soybean comments, keep an eye on palm oil tariffs coming out of India.
Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.