Whether it’s feed or milling, wheat markets continue to hold strong this week. Feed values are still hovering around that $11.00 – $11.50/bu FOB farm mark depending on location, quality, and delivery time frame, with steady demand. On the milling side, a #1, 13.5% protein Red Spring is poised to capture $12.50/bu delivered plant in Central Sask. Durum values remain a bit of a rollercoaster ride, similar to what we’ve been seeing since harvest time as wide spreads in value are found from buyer to buyer. Top end bids currently sit around $20.00 – $21.50/bu pending quality and shipment window. Recent reports suggest the possibility of active tenders, but so far, nothing has traded yet. We will keep an eye out for something to shake through as this will help to determine #1 CWAD and lower grade bids. New crop values for durum are still indicated at $13.00 – $13.50/bu in SE Sask. for September – October delivery. The bid doesn’t seem to be very deep, so if you’re on the fence, it may be time to make some sales. Historically these are some great values to lock in.
The flax price rally has scaled back from where it was a week ago, now with $42.00/bu FOB farm Jan. – March being quoted as an average bid. Even more worrisome is the fact that current values have started to feel heavy with the few buyers left willing to purchase and we could see another drop. For those in Eastern Saskatchewan, there is potential for higher bids, but growers should expect summer movement. Chinese imports in October totalled 13,000 tonnes with Canada only accounting for 700 tonnes of that, with the remaining coming from Russia. Current flax values only work for the US market and once that market fills the demand, we could see bids settle down to match the global markets. New crop brown flax values still linger in the $24-$25/bu FOB range with an act of God.
There was a bit of a pull back in the yellow pea market at the start of the week and now finding bids at $18/bu FOB farm is getting tough. As we write, most buyers are posting values closer to $17-17.50/bu picked up with the exception of NW Sask. where there is still a chance to hit the highs. The US market was holding up our local yellow pea values, but with reports of demand being filled, we start to see a slowdown and suspect yellow pea bids will stall out for now. That said, there remains the potential for bids to pull back further if steady farmer selling continues. Green peas had no change this week yet with $16/bu still available, while maple peas also remain steady at $18 – 19/bu depending on variety and location. We still have new crop opportunities on yellow peas at $13/bu picked up with an act of God, which is a great price to secure a few bushels per acre. New crop programs have been slow to start for greens and maples, but if you have a target price in mind let your merchant know and we can set up a firm offer.
Oats prices are still very strong this week with bids ranging around $9.50/bu picked up on farm. Freight considerations will bring that value down a little in some areas as trucks don’t run for free, but the bids are still un-be-lieve-a-ble. Milling market options for off grade oats are available and it’s the kind of year that even varieties traditionally not considered for the milling market may make the cut, so be sure to explore all options. Fall oat bids on 2022 seeded land are indicating $6/bu on farm, or better, which pencils out as the #1 cereal option based on our current crop ratings. The years are few and far between that oats are the best cereal option and considering the current values on everything else, it’s truly saying something. Oats are not just the best of the bad options for this coming year, they are a money maker.
Canary seed prices are stagnant this week as buyers are not aggressively looking for product and sellers are in no rush to sell into a sideways market. Current bids are showing 50-51 cents/lb on farm; values that are about double what we normally view as “good” on canary. Supplies are tight for sure, but canary seed markets can dry up without notice and product can become very tough to move, so while expecting prices might yet creep up, just ripping off the band-aid, selling it all and forgetting about it is not a bad play either. Keep in mind, current bids are double what they normally say is a good selling point on canary. New crop values on canary are still showing some buyer interest around 35 cents/lb picked up on farm including an act of God that covers losses due to drought. Consider new crop canary as a solid option to take some of 2022’s marketing risk off the plate today and lock something in.
Canola futures are up once again this week, which is no big surprise as they have seen significant strength for multiple weeks in a row now. January futures are sitting at $1026/MT, up from $1006/MT last week. March futures, which some buyers are now trading off, are up to $998/MT which is better than last week when they were $990/MT. A rally in soybean and soy oil futures earlier in the week gave some support to canola, despite palm oil taking a step back. Weakness in the Canadian dollar also helped, making canola relatively cheaper to import for foreign buyers. Taking a look ahead, November 2022 futures have taken a step back and sit at $815/MT. This works out to over $17 for new crop bids in most areas.
Adjustments are expected in StatsCan’s report of chickpea production next week. It is believed the current stats are too high with the lower yields and less acres in 2021. Mexico is well into their seeding and ahead of schedule for a typical year. With prices up 50% from last year Mexican producers are inclined to increase acres. Across the pond, India experienced heavier than usual rainfall which meant a later start to their seeding. The rainfall benefits supersede any late start by far. Prices remain flat for another week with #2 Kabuli’s bid at $0.55/lb FOB farm Jan.-Mar. and sample grade quality around $0.45/lb. New crop contracts have been popping up @ $0.35/lb FOB farm Sept.-Dec. with an AOG. If you need seed, give us a call!
Barley markets have been maintaining strength week after week. Old crop has been trading at $9-9.50/bu with freight sensitivity and new crop rumbling are around $5.50/bu FOB farm without an AOG. Corn is still a possible replacement for barley, but so far has only slowed the potential on value uptick. It seems there is still product in the bins as these values keep inching upwards, but the bulk of production has likely been traded. If we run into a cold winter and supply is weak, there could be more record-breaking values in the future.
The large green lentil market seems to be “waking up” over the last couple days. We have seen #1 quality large greens trade at 64 cents/lb FOB farm on offer this week, while #2 quality is now indicated at 60 cent/lb FOB farm, or possibly higher on firm target. The red lentil market continues to be stale without much change seen this week. It is getting tougher to find 45-cent bids, but opportunities to move small tonnage do exist pending location. India seems to be covering their needs with the Russian crop, as they await the upcoming Australian harvest. Next week StatsCan’s final production estimate will be released, it is believed that this number will be slightly lower than the September estimate. The report will likely will not affect reds as much as green lentils, as there are other sources available to purchase reds but less supply of the greens. The report gets released next Friday so markets may not react to the news until the following week.
Soybeans are taking their lead from other grains this week. With 95% of US harvest complete, harvest delivery pressure is starting to subside. The industry is now focused on any news coming out of South America, where record-breaking production is anticipated. Local bids have been as high as $14.50/bu to $15.00/bu FOB, pending farm location. Feed fabas continue to trade near $13.00/bu FOB farm with #2 export quality trading at $15.00/bu FOB farm. Dry bean carryover inventory continues to weigh over grower bids, but with that said, inventories remain in firm hands.
Defying the odds, mustard actually seems to have gained strength again this past week. We know it seems a bit wild, and one likes to think this rise will continue, but everything has a top…right? Where are we going from here? That’s hard to predict, especially in unseen, record territory like this, but one has to think we’re close to finding the top. We are now seeing spot yellow mustard bid at the $1.25/lb level FOB farm, with buyers also looking at brown mustard at $1.25. Oriental continues strong and would likely trade around the 90 cents to $1.00/lb mark for Forge or Vulcan type, with some buyers even willing to entertain Cutlass variety at these levels. We are now seeing new crop acres being booked and grower targets rolling in with buyers willing to entertain at all reasonable offers. The 70-cent FOB farm mark for yellow mustard is being quoted with about a 5-cent discount for brown and likely a 10-cent discount for oriental. These prices look outstanding and include an act of God. We are also seeing an increase in seed bookings this week, so be sure to call your merchant on all types of mustard. We offer treated & untreated options along with free delivery to your door.
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