StatsCan production estimates are going to be released next week and peas are expected to come out slightly higher from the last estimate, however this will likely have little impact on our pricing. Our Canadian bids continue remain firm, which confirms strong demand, but we are seeing a small drop in green values. Yellow peas are at $9.00/bu delivered, while green peas pull back slightly to the $10.00/bu delivered range. Maple peas remain unchanged at $10.00 – 10.50/bu picked up. As per reports, the Black Sea Region’s pea prices are at multiyear highs due to their supplies being tight which is causing their domestic processors to bid aggressively. With the Black Sea Region’s supplies being tight we are also expecting their export to slow later into the marketing year. Therefore, if China continues buying at a steady flow our Canadian pea prices should remain firm.
Flax pricing is holding out so far this week, unlike other markets that have significantly softened. If you don’t have any flax on the books yet, signing some up at $18.00/bu FOB for a March/April type movement is still possible. New crop is still lingering around $14.00/bu picked up. Canada no longer dominates the flax market, so the prices aren’t as straightforward as they were 10 years ago. We have seen Canadian supplies shrink in the last five years, but the Black Seas Region has filled that gap which has kept prices from rallying. The disruption of the flax supply in the Black Sea Region has the prices for Canadian flax at an all-time high. If the disruptions overseas are purely logistical then we will see a correction in the market. As always, we have some seed suppliers for those looking for new seed or if you want to put some acres in for 2021.
The feed barley market has shot up a bit this week with prices in West Central Saskatchewan trading around $5.00/bu FOB farm again. Those in the extreme Southwest have been able to capture values over that mark, potentially up to $5.75/bu. We have seen some interest in Eastern SK barley this week as well. At least one buyer has hinted that $5.00/bu FOB farm may be attainable, so make sure to have your offers in place. The malt price remains relatively unchanged based on grower reports and remain similar in value to feed. As has been the case for most of this year, it might not be a bad idea to consider selling malt into the feed market for quicker movement and no concern over grading issues.
The canary seed market has been holding strong this week and we are still getting some trades on the books for the first part of 2021 at $0.32 /lb picked up on farm. If you prefer faster movement than 2021 we have buyers that could likely still get a truck in the yard for this year at $0.30 to maybe $0.31 cents FOB farm, but that window is getting pretty tight as often movement is halved or less in the last 2 weeks of the year. Most buyers will need to see pre-shipping samples on the canary as well so they can ascertain if your product makes the nil-inseparable Mexico market or needs to be diverted to other, less picky, countries. Still no new crop values to report for canary at this time; strong values are likely to encourage some acreage expansion, but overall market firmness will most likely keep any one market from getting too inflated. There may be some incentive for buyers to encourage growers to plant canary.
The feed wheat market is heating up this week with trades taking place as high as $6.50/bu FOB farm on the West side of Sask. and up to $6.35/bu in the Southeast. For a quick reference, this time last year feed wheat was priced around $4.80/bu bushel. Other than price, the other major difference was last year’s wheat was feed quality, where a lot of this year’s wheat is #1 or # 2 but has low protein. The spread between feed and milling quality is minimal at this point and in comparison, bids for milling wheat with 13.5% protein are indicated around $6.75 delivered. This feed market is very attractive for any one with lower protein, #2 quality or is just outside of a realistic delivery range to the millers. Wheat, just as the elevators, doesn’t seem to be able to compete right now.
The red lentil market is really feeling the pressure of the Australian harvest as prices have dropped to $0.25-$0.26/lb FOB farm. The red market will likely remain quiet now until after Christmas, and it may be even longer if the size of the Australian crop is as big as expected. Large green lentils have also felt some downward pressure as prices have dropped a cent or two over the last week. The average bid is around the $0.35/lb mark. In the last week we’ve had a couple buyers looking for French green and black lentils. So, if you’re one of the few with product, give us a shout to discuss pricing. Next week the final crop numbers will be released, and analysist are not projecting any major surprises to come out of the report. What the report may provide is a better breakdown on the production on the different classes of lentils. Expect markets to remain sluggish until we get a better understanding of the actual size of the Australian crop and seeding progress in India.
Chickpea markets have switched from talking about today’s values to starting to focus on the potential for new crop. Lower values over the last couple years have resulted in lower acres but this has yet to translate to higher values. The main supportive factor has been referred to as “wounded demand” and put COVID as the sole factor. Less celebrations, less eating out, less demand. The market expects a turnaround of this suppression when a vaccine is readily available. Until then, there will be peaks and valleys to support sales, but a firm increase in the market for any significant period of time is debatable. Bids range from $0.29-$0.30/lb FOB farm on #2 quality min 20% 9mm and have seen slightly higher trade on offer. No indication on new crop levels yet but don’t discount the opportunity to put an offer in and test the market.
Oat production was a little less bountiful than expected and as such, we’re seeing some solid prices in the market. This week milling bids are pulling in at $4.25/bu delivered for Dec. – Feb. movement. This has translated to an equally solid FOB price sitting around that $3.60/bu range on farm pending location. The closer you are to Manitoba the better. Call your Rayglen agent if you are looking for movement and price specifics in your area with a pricing target being a great option. Just a reminder though, with Christmas around the corner the shipping window for December is tight. Some more good news for oats has been the solid trade that’s taken place with the US as we’ve far surpassed what’s been done the last two years. However, it’s worth keeping an eye on European oats and whether the Americans import from them down the road which would lead into some downsized demand for Canadian product. On the feed side, prices continue to hover around that $2.40 – $2.70/bu range. We may see oat prices pull up a bit as buyers may look to offset barley with other feed substitutes… stay tuned.
News of waning Chinese export demand from the U.S. has softened futures markets. The offsetting bullish news is the continued dry weather in Brazil and an Argentinian Oilseed Workers Labour dispute. Local soybean bids now hover around $12.25-$12.50/bu picked up depending on location. Faba bean export quality bids are scarce due to a return to typical global production levels and typical trade patterns. Feed faba bids are in the range of $6.50-$7.00/bu FOB farm location dependent. North American dry bean harvest has largely concluded, and production numbers are up. The US has 67% production increase over last year’s abysmal harvest and StatsCan will confirm Canada’s production on Dec 3rd next week. Harvest delivery pressure is beginning to subside, and some early Mexico export demand has come to some of the specialty classes. New crop dry bean bids are soon to be released. Contact Rayglen if you are interested in new crop.
Mustard demand still dominated the talk this past week and slow shipping, especially to Europe, continues. That being said, new crop contracts are being signed at great values historically. Please call us to discuss all your new crop and seed options. We have all varieties of seed either treated with 2 treatments, or un-treated and our prices include delivery to your yard. Spot bids today are steady sitting at $0.40/lb FOB farm for yellow with a delivery window of Dec./Jan. Brown has been showing some signs of strength and the bid sits at $0.31/lb FOB for Jan./Feb. pickup. Perhaps an offer higher might be a good idea at this point. Oriental Forge variety sits at $0.28/lb for Jan./Feb. movement. Cutlass Oriental is sitting at $0.26/lb for the same new year shipping.
Despite a bit of a downfall yesterday, January canola futures are once again up week over week. At time of writing they are sitting at $578/MT, compared to $569/MT at the same time last week. The story hasn’t changed much as dryness in Brazil and Argentina is leading to soybean futures rising which in turn, leads the way for canola futures to follow behind. Many eyes now turn to the next StatsCan production report, which will be released on December 3rd. The September StatsCan report had Canadian canola production pegged at 19.4 MMT. With the strong exports we’ve seen so far, if that number was to drop below 19 MMT we can expect supplies to tighten at the end of the marketing year and prices to stay strong.
Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.