Wheat prices have not seen any major changes this week. Milling bids though, do seem to get better as we move out to April / May. For those with feed in the bins, prices range anywhere from $4.50-$4.70/bu picked up. Durum prices are a little softer this week with indications around $8.30/bu. The European Union is monitoring expected rain events that could limit planting of winter cereals in western Europe. This comes after speculation that US winter wheat plantings could also hit a record low. This is due, in part, to lower prices and weather. Earlier this week the US winter wheat crop was estimated 52% good to excellent. While trade wars have pressured some markets, production and weather are taking a back seat, with buyers not being overly aggressive. Let us know specs on your wheat or durum so we can market appropriately.
It’s been a real battle this year to get harvest off and in some cases the crop is still out in the field. Of the roughly 2.5 million acres unharvested in Saskatchewan, approximately 150k of those can be attributed to flax. For the most part, what has come in, has been of pretty decent quality. That said, there is still a market for the off-spec product. If you happen to know your specs let us know, if not, continue to send us in your samples so we can find an avenue for it. Brown flax continues to hold its own in the market with milling flax trading at $14/bu FOB farm and #1 trading from $12.75 – $13.50/bu picked up depending on location. Yellow flax continues to see vaulted prices hovering in and around that $16 – $17/bu picked up on farm for milling quality with the later for pushed out movement. Just a friendly reminder as I know most feel like they have just finished harvesting, but we have been fielding seed calls this last couple weeks for those game planning for next year’s planting season.
Barley prices haven’t fluctuated much since last week. Feed barley is trading between $3.30 – 4.00/bu FOB depending on location, with the stronger pricing shown to South West Sask locations. Freight seems to be the biggest issue affecting the feed market right now; with trucking costs on the rise it is taking away what our feed buyers can pay on product. Malt barley is still a slow process, with some malt samples waiting acceptance, as the maltsters are trying to figure out how high of chit they can work with this year. We have had pricing anywhere from $5.30 – $5.75/bu FOB depending on location and variety. Speak with your merchant on your quality if you are looking for a home for your malt barley.
The oat market remains quiet for another week. There are no real big changes that are happening as of late. The yield estimates on oats this year are coming back around 88 bu/acre on average. We still have buyers asking to see samples of rejected milling oats that could fit their feed program or even make certain off spec “milling” programs. Feed oats have been trading between $2.50-$2.80/bu FOB farm for relatively quick movement. For this market, there cannot be a high percentage of sprouts. On the milling side of the market, bids range between $3.00 to $3.25/bu FOB farm. The further east you are the better the price gets.
Canary seed stats are out in the final crop report of 2019 and Sask Ag showed an increase in yield from 16.5 bu/acre to 24 bu/acre, which came as a surprise. Bids are unchanged from last week around $0.29/lb and offers are continually being accepted at $0.30/lb for first quarter 2020 movement. Even though the StatsCan report shows higher numbers than originally reported, the pressure for increased values is still present. Exports for the first 2 months of the 2019/20 production has been the highest in 5 years so would indicate rationing and stronger values for the later part of the crop year.
All pea markets have seen some strength over the last week. Green peas are trading between $10.50 to $11.00 FOB farm just depending on location, yellow pea offers have been triggering at $6.25 FOB farm and buyers are starting to show interest in maple and dun peas. Prices for green peas is ahead of last year at this time ($9.50/bu) and we suspect that if the trend continues, they could be $12.00 dollars by the end of January… big “IF” in that statement. Buyers may still be trying to cover sales and once covered we may see prices level out. Comparing green pea sales year to year, we are slightly ahead of pace through the Rayglen office. Yellow peas are starting to gain a little strength and China continues to be the biggest player in that market. Depending what happens with the India Kharif crop as seeding is behind schedule, this may put pressure on India to reduce the current trade restrictions, but this likely won’t happen until sometime in the 3rd quarter as they will wait for final seeding results.
Mustard remains stable for another week. Yellow mustard seems to be the most sought-after variety and oriental the least. Buyers are entertaining new crop offers on all types of mustard now so, if you have a value in mind, we can definitely show it. Next week the Statscan final production estimates come out and it will be interesting to compare to the Sask Ag final crop report for the season. Hopefully the release will help clear up the disconnect between sellers and buyers. Sellers feel that stocks will be tight due to the late harvest and quality issues, but the Sask Ag reported that 75% of the mustard is No. 1. and that projected yield estimates are more favorable than previously thought. Until we get a clearer picture on the situation expect the market to remain stable with slight increase on short term coverage. As a final reminder, mustards seed sales for 2020 production are underway. Please call for details on all types of mustard seed, treated and delivered to your farm.
Soybean futures continue to be under pressure and continue the downward trend with many traders wondering when a support will be established. China/US trade remains mostly conjecture and rumor with a small amount of credence being granted to articles, indicating a deal might be reached by Dec 15th. That said the market has heard this so many times that it’s now in a show me don’t tell me mode. Local soybean bids are trading in the range of $10.00-$10.25/bu picked up on farm. North American dry bean production has hit serious hurdles in both quantity and quality. This set back has offered support to the current market and it appears this same price support will spill into new crop production contracts. Faba quality and production quantity varies strongly across Western Canada, which is actually the norm. Export quality #2 zero tannin faba bids are thin but have achieved $8.50 FOB farm for top-notch quality. Feed faba market is trading a little plus or minus either side of $6.00/bu delivered.
The chickpea market has been pretty quiet in recent weeks. Our most recent trades on #2 quality have been up in the 27 to 28 cent range, but those are a few weeks old now and most bids are closer to the mid-twenties as of late. This is not to say product is trading in the mid-twenties; it’s just being bid there. Feed quality chickpea bids are remaining in the 8 to 12 cent/lb price range as of late in light trade. We have options for drying high moisture product in the bin as an option to get some risk off your plate and decrease the number of headaches you have to deal with. Reports of some reduction in the Indian supply leaves a glimmer of hope that we will see this market continue with some strength, but how long that will take is anyone’s guess.
The canola market remains the same this week with little news coming to move pricing in either direction. Much of the reason for this remains with China not showing the need for Canadian product as much as they have in the past. Spot bids remain close to $10 delivered in depending on your location, while deferred futures show opportunities $10-$20/MT higher. One option at producer’s disposal is a delayed pricing contract. Having the ability to deliver the product, especially in a tough year like this, and take out storage risk, while giving the market a chance to improve can be a very effective management tool. Be sure to give us a call to discuss your options.
Lentils seem to be on the same path this week as far as prices go. With red lentils this is especially true with trades continuing at 19 cents FOB farm, and the odd offer trading at 19.5 cents FOB farm. This is very tough bid to get though at 19.5 cents and offers sitting at 20 cents FOB have not traded. Large green lentils are trading between 23 cents and 24 cents FOB farm while #1 small greens continue at 20 cents delivered. We have all seen the articles and chatter about tightening demand in India, and some long monsoon rain hampering seeding efforts. We will have to monitor this closely, but buyers have reported not a lot of demand still or changes thus far. This market will likely just remain steady short term as we watch for weather news and any possible political changes from India as well.
Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.