The quality of Canada’s chickpea crop is promising, though reports suggest a possible downward adjustment in yield. The latest SaskAg Crop report pegs yields at 22 bushels per acre, down from September’s estimate of 26 bushels per acre. Despite this, an increase in acres—up over 50% from last year—secures a healthy supply for the market. Argentina, too, has ramped up production, and while their chickpeas tend to be of a smaller caliber than what most markets prefer, they remain competitive. Currently, the chickpea market is slightly weighed down by a larger availability of smaller sizes, yet buyers are actively seeking #2 quality with over 25% sized at 9mm+. New crop values aren’t available yet, but if conditions remain similar to last year’s, chickpea acres are unlikely to decrease. For those considering chickpeas for the first time, getting aligned with seed now would be a good move.

The oat market has gained some strength, with prices ticking up a few cents this week. Buyers are offering $4.75 per bushel delivered for good-quality milling oats, specifically those weighing 42 pounds or more, across central Saskatchewan. Light oats are seeing lower values and may not qualify for milling grades, Feed markets, by contrast, are quiet, with prices in a broad range from $2.00 to $3.00 per bushel FOB farm, largely based on test weight. The delivery period for both milling and feed oats is slightly extended, but the current milling bid offers a worthwhile return. New crop bids have also been rumored, so if oats are on your list for next year’s rotation, reaching out for preliminary numbers could be beneficial.

The pea market remains largely unchanged this week. Yellow peas are holding steady at $10 to $10.50 per bushel FOB, with options reaching up to $12 per bushel for pre-harvest chemical-free product with delivery scheduled for the new year. Green peas are priced between $15 and $16 per bushel, with the higher price becoming harder to find and restricted to loads with a maximum of 3% bleach. For those with higher bleached product, contacting a merchant for a specific FOB price is advised. Maple peas are consistent at $18 to $22 per bushel, with firm values heavily dependent on variety. For those interested in certified seed, we have availability on most types of peas, although maple pea seed remains in limited supply, so getting on the list early is recommended. While new crop pricing hasn’t popped up yet, having a target price ready for discussion with a merchant can be helpful.

The flax market could be shaping up for a more bullish outlook as we head into the new year. Canadian flax supplies remain low historically, which supports potential demand increases. The U.S. has reduced flax stocks and is anticipated to import from Canada, while Europe is also showing preference for Canadian flax over Russian supplies due to price competitiveness. With this combination in demand channels, Canadian flax supplies are expected to tighten further. In China, inventories are declining, potentially leading to increased import needs, though any significant demand is likely to be partially fulfilled by Russia. Flax is currently priced between $16.50 and $17.25 per bushel FOB, based on movement timelines. If you’re considering planting flax next year or need certified seed, now is a good time to reach out to the office for options.

According to the latest 2024 StatsCan report, ending stocks for mustard are anticipated to be the highest since the 2016/17 marketing year, though this is potentially over optimistic. Regardless, the market is well-stocked, which is keeping prices subdued. Current bids reflect this trend with yellow mustard trading at 41-43 cents per pound, brown mustard at 32-33 cents, and oriental at 30-32 cents, all picked up and depending on shipping timeframe. Prices are expected to remain relatively flat in the coming months, which may indicate continued slow producer selling. The ample stock levels have also minimized EU import demand, keeping prices steady. For any off-spec mustard, there are some marketing options available, so contacting the office could help move this inventory.

Canola futures have been moving sideways, showing minor declines as day-to-day fluctuations persist without any significant rally or drop. Local prices remain similar to last week, ranging between $13.85 and $14.10 per bushel delivered to plant in northwestern Saskatchewan, with some added carry for those willing to store beyond the near term. Regional prices might vary slightly due to freight and other factors, and buyer interest remains in FOB farm pickups. If you have a target price in mind, posting an offer could yield results. Shifts in U.S. trade policies might redirect Canadian exports, particularly if tariffs increase, and it will be essential to monitor these potential changes closely.

Barley feed markets have seen a slight uptick this week, with bids at $5.00 per bushel or higher for January-March delivery in many areas. Some buyers in southeastern Saskatchewan are even offering $5.00 per bushel for new crop delivery next fall (No AOG). In contrast, the malt market remains quiet, with coverage appearing sufficient for the short term. The Canadian Grain Commission recently released preliminary harvest sample results as of September 20, 2024. Among the highlights, the average test weight for two-row malt barley came in at 62.6 kg/hl, which is approximately 3 kg/hl lighter than the five-year average. Variety data shows ACC Synergy leading as Saskatchewan’s top malting barley choice at 18.78%, followed by CDC Copeland at 7.91%, AAC Connect at 7.15%, and CDC Fraser at 4.63%. On the feed side, CDC Austenson leads with an 11.87% share, and CDC Maverick follows at 3.98%. Barley-seeded area declined by about 15% in Saskatchewan and 8% in Alberta compared to 2023. However, yields in Saskatchewan have increased by 3 bushels per acre over last year, while Alberta’s yields are down by 6 bushels per acre. These figures suggest overall production will drop by approximately 0.394 million metric tons in Saskatchewan and 0.695 million metric tons in Alberta. More detailed insights from the report can be found here: (https://grainscanada.gc.ca/en/grain-research/grain-harvest-export-quality/barley/2024/).

The canary seed market remains steady, with supply levels still comfortable, leaving buyers and sellers in a bit of a standoff. While a few loads are moving, trade remains slow with bids ranging from 30 to 32 cents FOB depending on delivery time. The higher end, around 32 cents, typically trades for January to February movement, while lower values are available for quicker delivery. If cash flow or space is a concern, let us know, and feel free to place an offer. For next season, we have seed available, and projected returns look promising around the 30-cent mark.

For wheat, global conditions are mixed. Concerns persist over French crop conditions, while recent rains have significantly improved Argentina’s crop rating to 38% “good to excellent.” In the Black Sea region, wheat prices are still under government-imposed minimums, and Australia’s wheat harvest is progressing. Following the recent US election results, wheat trades in positive territory this morning, even as soybeans dip amid potential trade tensions with China. Locally, feed wheat prices range from $6.50 to $7.25 per bushel FOB farm, depending on quality and location. In southeastern Saskatchewan, durum prices stand at $8.50 per bushel FOB for 2024 movement, with a bump to $9.25 for early 2025. For 2025 new crop, there’s a $9.50 FOB bid in the southeast. For other wheat types, reach out with specs to receive the latest bid in today’s fluctuating market.

StatsCan and SaskAg are fairly aligned this year with lentil yield projections, which currently sit at around 2.59 million MT. This, combined with decent quality, supports continued strong values, even as top bids on green lentils have slightly tapered. Importers, especially in the wake of recent port strikes, seem content with their current supplies and are holding off on additional purchases, which might keep the market quiet or slightly softer in the coming months. For green lentils, India’s tur production could impact demand as Canadian green lentils often serve as a substitute. India’s tur acres have increased, even with some weather challenges, so this will be a key factor to monitor. Turkey’s lowered production estimates also warrant attention, as it could create pockets of demand. Current bids for large green lentils range from $0.56-$0.60 per pound, with small greens at $0.53-$0.54 per pound, both picked up on the farm. Red lentils remain relatively quiet, trading around $0.32-$0.33 per pound picked up. Australia’s entry into red lentil markets could offer insight on crop size and price shifts, given some weather impact reports alongside areas without issues.

In soybeans, U.S. farmers are wrapping up what appears to be a record-breaking harvest, with the USDA reporting 94% of the crop harvested by Sunday—a notable jump from last week’s 89% and above the five-year average of 85% for this time. Locally, soybean prices are around $11.00 to $11.50 per bushel FOB farm. In Argentina, adverse growing conditions have significantly impacted dry bean production. Demand from Mexico this year may be lower than last year, with larger dry bean varieties priced around 45¢ to 50¢ delivered, while smaller specialty beans are fetching 55¢ to 59¢ delivered. Export interest in faba beans remains limited due to expected strong production in Australia and the UK. However, there are still concerns about frost damage in Australia, which could impact yields. Export bids for faba beans are about $9.00 per bushel FOB farm, with feed-quality faba beans at roughly $8.00 per bushel.

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.