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Rayglen Market Comments – November 7, 2018

Pea markets seem to have livened up a bit, with green varieties seeing more trading happening this week. On a larger variety green pea, there were bids of $9/bu picked up on the farm and there were also offers trading on smaller sized varieties at $8.50-8.75/bu picked up. Yellow peas haven’t seen a lot of change from last week, with bids still hovering at $6.50/bu picked up. New crop pricing hasn’t taken off yet, but buyers are willing to look at offers. Also, looking forward to next planting season, we are going to have seed available on many varieties of peas. Speak with your merchant on location and pricing as we have options for yellow, green, maple and dunn seed varieties.

Chickpea markets are slow and steady, but buyers are still present, and trades continue week after week. Reported Australian production problems have impacted the desi market lending a premium to India’s production and putting Australia in a tailspin to meet Desi seed demand for the coming season. The flip side of this, unfortunately, it has had no effect on the Kabuli market. The current pattern is believed to be typical for the next 12 months unless Mexico has a sharp decrease in acres or a major weather event. For pricing,  #2 Kabuli’s are $0.23-0.24/lb and Frontiers are $0.20-0.21/lb FOB farm. Call for further details.

As of October 22, the canary seed harvest was reported at 80% complete; below the 10-year average of 89%, but as we write on Nov. 7th, we suspect that number is near 100%. Winter has come on very strong this week, so it seems time is running out to wrap up harvest and we hope you have yours complete. The canary seed market has followed the usual pattern of price jumps in October and November. Some analysts say that the canary seed market is expected to remain sideways until at least spring; April and May we could see the price jump. Now we don’t expect any 10c/lb swings, but maybe a penny or two increase. Prices have been trading around 22c/lb FOB the farm for Nov/Dec movement.

The canola market has been under some pressure over the last week, although the slightly weaker Canadian dollar has helped limit some of the losses as of late. Some analysts believe support levels for the January futures is around $475-480/MT, which we are very close to now.  If we did fall below this level, we could see things slip further. Canola values are hovering around $10.30-10.40/bu delivered to plant with bids varying depending on your local basis. Growers that do not have much canola sold should keep an eye on this market and take advantage of any small rallies or specials that may arise.

Flax prices remain steady this week with $13.00/bu picked up in the yard available for both #1 and milling quality. There is likely to be minimal quality issues as per the latest reports, but we are seeing a few off-grade samples coming in. Sask Ag’s latest report also estimates the flax yield at 24bu/acre. This is higher than previous report estimates. The most recent Kazakhstan flax estimate now shows the crop at 37% larger than last year. The Black Sea exports are likely to pick up in November and December, which could start to weigh on European prices. Chinese offers have been up as of late, which has signaled some buying from Canadian sources. There could be some potential for higher bids in 2019, so make sure you talk to your Rayglen merchant to keep up to date on what the market is doing.

For another week barley remains flat. We are seeing a “tonne” of barley coming to the market so there is no worry from buyers of being short. With that being said, there is a lot of grain out there that was taken off tough and needs to be dried down so hopefully the weather cooperates. Right now, buyers are bought up for November movement and are looking into Dec-Jan. Depending on how our winter is, feedlots may go through a lot of barley and we could see a bit of a price increase, but for now prices range between $4.10-4.50/bu FOB farm for Dec-Jan movement. We have also caught wind of a buyer looking for some malt barley so talk with your merchant for more details.

No real change in mustard markets this past week, but we have done some solid trades on yellow varieties. 34 cents/lb is available for December movement, and 35 is available for January. These are pretty solid prices and movement isn’t too far out. Brown mustard would trade as high as 31 cents/lb depending on movement timelines. While oriental mustard, of the forge variety, has been trading around 27 cents/lb. Cutlass type oriental is heavily discounted with indications of 23-24 cents/lb. If you have contracted mustard and have not already sent representative samples to your buyer, please do so as soon as possible as they should be in by now. We have seed available for new crop and have many options, including untreated, treated and on farm delivery. Call your merchant for details about all the certified varieties.

Soybean market nervousness continues to build every mounting day without a US/China trade resolution. Due to rising US on farm inventories, it’s predicted that soybean acres will drop to 82.5 million acres for 19/20 from 89.1 million this growing season. Local bids are in the range of $10.25-$10.50/bu picked up depending on location. Faba bean values are still strong for large non-tannin varieties in the range of $10.75-$11.00/bu picked up on the farm. Dry bean markets are still well supported due to lower production in the traditional US dry bean growing areas. Dry bean bids vary by type/class, so contact Rayglen for specific prices.

No substantial changes have taken place in the oats market over the past week. Bids for #2 CW oats have traded as high as $3.40/bu picked up in the yard in southeast Saskatchewan, with movement into 2019. As you get into northern Saskatchewan, freight brings the price down towards $2.75/bu picked up in the yard with movement also into 2019. On the feed side of the market, bids are $2.25-$2.50/bu picked up on farm with the price being best in the southern half of the province. If you have a firm target in mind for either your milling quality or feed oats, be sure to give us a call so we can get it posted on our website.

The wheat market continues along pretty sideways this week as feed markets operate on 58 lbs and dry (max 14.5%) product anywhere from $5.25 to $5.65/bu picked up in the yard. We do have a few buyers that will have feed bids on the tough product you may not have priced yet so talk to your favorite merchant for details on that. Milling markets are showing #1 hard red prices at around $7/bu delivered into elevator for product with good protein. Durum prices are pretty tough to find but the occasional marketing opportunity does pop up so let us know what your specs look like if you need to get product rolling at some point.

Lentils made a surprising splash into the market this week. Both red and large green lentils saw a slight increase in pricing, which was nice to see. Reds gained a cent to a cent and a half and large greens saw a cent and a half gain to two cent gain, while small greens remained flat.  The only explanation that we have received on this price increase has been that a few countries have come to the table looking for some product covering the shipping periods of December, January, and February.  This may be short lived and once these orders are filled the price may come down again. No one seems to have a long-range forecast on what this market is going to do so if you see a price you like it may not hurt to take advantage of it.

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.