Canaryseed has been quiet now for a while, and will probably remain so for at least a few more months. In the new year, you could see prices bump up a bit. According to Stats Canada production estimates, they say that 15% of the available crop was exported by the end of September. This is up from last year which was only 12% exported at that same time. Although, some processors believe that Stats Canada has underestimated both seeded area and average yields. Some stats are suggesting that the crop is similar to last year. Prices on canaryseed are sitting around 20 to 21 c/lb fob the farm depending on area and movement.
Pea markets have remained flat over the week. This morning news came out that India is putting a 50% duty on peas coming into their country. This is not good news looking at pea pricing going forward. Looking at our buyers bids they are being slowly pulled. The latest bids we had were lingering around $7.50/bu delivered, however picked up we are closer to $7.00/bu. Bids were looking a little more aggressive in the South-east of Saskatchewan. Green peas have been showing $8.00-$8.25/bu delivered over the past weeks. Reading through Stat reports, the pea market is showing more bearish signals as opposed to bullish ones. This is specifically true for yellow peas. This market is going to depend a lot on the Indian rabi crop, which we won’t know more about until next year. Therefore, we can expect peas to remain flat with small bumps only when individual exports pop up. For green peas, we still expect some upside into 2018 but the upside potential may be modest. We are going to have to keep a close eye on this market while news is coming out of India.
Feed barley has been fairly stable this week. We are seeing lots of grain moving, and buyers are telling us they are buying up. The market seems to be flooded with feed barley lately with the $4/bu fob farm bids in certain areas coming to the surface. Buyers are also starting to stretch out movement into the winter months, with the bids starting to back off because of demand not so strong. Todays bids we are at $3.80/bu fob farm in certain areas for a now until January movement. Offers are a great way to catch a high in the market, so make sure you are talking to your merchant on those at all times.
Oats continue to hold at better values than we have seen in recent months on both the milling and feed side of things. #2 CW oats are trading around $2.50/bu picked up in the yard. This price could fluctuate up or down depending on location. Feed oats have taken a bump up this week with indication on dry and heavy feed oats being in the $2.15-$2.25/bu range picked up in the yard. Be sure to give your merchant a call as our offer system has been working well for catching oats prices slightly above market.
Old crop chickpea values seem to be slipping as buyers have become less aggressive compared to just a couple weeks ago. #2 leader/orion varieties can still trade around $0.64/lb in the yard but that bid is becoming harder to find. Getting on the phone with your merchant is a good idea to see what is available today and locking in what is still a very solid return. New crop chickpeas remain strong with $0.43/lb on a #2 still available delivered to plant. These contracts include price discounts for a #3, a sample grade with max 5% green and damaged, and a sample grade with max 10% green and damaged as well as a full Act of God. These values pencil in very strong, so be sure to give us a call to lock in your first 10 bu/acre.
Flax markets have been sideways over the past week, with prices at $12.50/bu picked up on milling quality for a Dec – Mar movement. #1 quality has picked up as well, and is now trading at $12.50/bu delivered to plant. Flax prices in Canada and the US seem to be converging with Canadian values up, while US values have been slightly weaker. Supplies of good quality flax are still lower with much of last year’s carryover being #2 or lower. There has been some strength in the European market, but there is a good supply of Kazakh flax that still needs to find a home. Even without demand from Europe, Canadian flax prices should remain firm with the prediction of tightening supplies. Canadian flax hasn’t seen a supply pinch yet, which could mean prices remain sideways for the next while.
Durum markets have remained steady this past week for #1 spec product in most areas of the province. Growers in the southeast areas can potentially see $8.00/bu picked up on farm for #1US spec durum. Product on the west side of the province is seeing values as of late at $7.50/bu picked up on farm for #1 quality as well as options for lower grade product. Growers looking to move some durum should call into the office with specs to determine what options are available in your area. We have seen some options for CPS red wheat as of late with price dependent on where the product is located and protein. Feed wheat values haven’t seen much change with bids peaking at $5.00/bu fob farm for max 1 ppm wheat depending on location. Growers with feed wheat should look at this as a good opportunity to get some product on the books.
Lentils once again had a tough week in the markets. Buying on reds remain slow, and buyers are showing little interest in purchasing large lots of grain. Large green lentils remain north of 30¢/lb, but with also limited marketing opportunities. Larger tonnages are not helping sellers to get a better price, in most cases it is hindering prices. Large green lentils at today’s prices are still a profitable sale to get on the books. As we move into the early winter months buyers will become fussier on colour as discolouration in the bin may start to happen. Confirmed this morning yellow peas going into India have a 50% duty on peas shipping to India, and the next rumor is lentils will have a 25% duty. This will not help sales nor prices going forward. At this time, it may be time to make some firm marketing plans either to hold reds for a year or trickle into market when seller needs them. On large greens lentils, it would likely be a good time to let a few loads go into the markets as these markets seem very unstable.
Soybean futures have rallied slightly as traders anticipate a reduction in soybean production and yield in tomorrow’s USDA report. Average pre-report trade estimates are 49.3 bu/acre yield, down 0.6 BPA, and production at 4.408 billion bu (89.486 million acres), down 23 million bu. US soybean harvest is over 90% complete and expected to wrap up in a week; progress is only slightly behind the average five-year pace. The Brazilian soybean crop is now 43% planted, lagging the 53% complete year ago. There is significant variance in planting progress from state to state with Mato Grosso at 61% and Goiás the furthest behind at under 10% complete. Early estimates are for an 85.5 million acre Brazilian crop. Local soybean bids are $11.00/bu FOB farm range. Local faba bean bids are in the $6.00-$6.20/bu range for feed and $6.75-$7.00/bu FOB farm range for export quality.
Canola futures posted recent modest gains fueled largely by a weakening Canadian dollar. This week’s gains begin to take back last week’s losses that were due to technical sell signals, and resulting speculative profit-taking. The next Stats Can report is scheduled for release in early December, and historically speaking it usually reveals an increase in production. There appears to be a lot of competitive alignment around a -$15/MT delivered local basis from Dec and into the New Year. Depending on delivery and future months, the resulting final price remains strong in the $11.50-$11.60 delivered range. Please call with your location and tonnage for more details and firm values in your area.
Mustard stayed in a range this week and is historically very strong. New crop pricing and seed has kicked into gear this week. Spot prices are showing 43¢/lb picked up both #1 yellow & brown mustard, and 34¢/lb on oriental. New crop prices are strong out of the gate and are up to 42¢/lb per pound on yellow mustard, up to 38¢/lb on brown mustard and up to 35¢/lb on oriental. These are all picked up in the yard with an Act of God for full crop year. Shorter delivery options are available. Call your Rayglen merchant with more details. We also have certified and treated seed available. With pulse commodities dropping in prices, we could see some more acres turn to mustard. Running some numbers will show great returns per acre making mustard a strong choice for returns.
Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.