The weather has cooperated for the most part this harvest season. Much of the combining is now complete or soon to be, with barley acres sitting around 92% harvested as of last Friday. Barley bids have bumped up a bit and have been trading around $3.65/bu FOB the farm for a good quality. This is based on max 10 ppm vomi and November delivery in many areas of the province. Selling into the feed market is another alternative for your malt quality with no quality risk. There might be an opportunity for a bit better price with movement into the new year. This year malt the quality has been very good and which is reflected in the current price with many buyers posting around $4.00 /bu delivered to plant. Even with the current stagnant market situation for malt, buyers are still wanting to see samples just in case this market turns around and prices pick back up.
The feed wheat market continues in a sideways pattern for now. It has been consistently trading around $4.50 to $4.75/bu FOB the farm for the majority of the prairies. Values in certain areas depending on freight could be around $4.90. Offers at $5 FOB could be attempted, but recently nothing at those values have traded. These values are based on vomitoxin levels under 1 ppm, 58lb bushel weight and dry. If your feed wheat is coming in over 1 ppm to a max of 10, it will likely trade around $4.00/bu FOB the farm. What we suggest doing, if you are unclear on your vomi levels, is to go and get a professional grade on them at SGS. It is important even this year to have that number. Today we have still had some buyers indicating $6.50-$6.75/bu delivered for good milling wheat, pending movement period. Call your merchant for more information.
Chickpea markets are sitting sideways this week with prices ranging from 68-70c/lb picked up in the yard. This is for across the board pricing. There are a few opportunities for those who just have 9 & 10mm at 72c/lb delivered. Yield is variable according to reports, but prices are still being driven by tight supplies globally. There are still some uncertainties of the size of the US crop along with Australia’s chickpea crop on desis and kabulis. Overseas buyers want to get their hands-on supplies and once these overseas crops start coming off it just means more supply into the market. This leaves an uncertainty where these chickpea prices are headed, as we are at record highs right now. There has been some attractive new crop pricing for 2018 already in the mid 40c/lb range. If these kinds of prices are attractive for North America growers, then they will also influence farmers in Russia, Argentina and elsewhere. Buyers don’t seem concerned about over supply for 2018, so the question remains how long these high prices will last and the kind of risk left on the table if the product sits in a bin.
The lentil market hasn’t seen a lot of change over the week. Pricing has continued to sag as demand seems to be limited. Right now, red lentils are trading at 20.5-21 cents/lb for a #2 and large green lentils still have limited openings at 38 cents on a #2. As per a stat report, compared to last year, deliveries are behind due to the crop being smaller and India’s purchasing isn’t quite what it was. Turkey and India have both lowered their prices, so there aren’t many signals indicating that pricing will bounce up. For seed options, we have both certified and common varieties available on red and green lentils. Speak with your merchant if you are looking to update your seed.
Oats this week are very similar to last week. We aren’t seeing any jumps in the market and that could be due to harvest pressure and over supply. Yield numbers have been very good this year and supply from last year is keeping the prices down. We are seeing $2.00/bu on feed quality oats that are dry and indications around $2.50/bu FOB farm on a milling quality oats. Offers will be key in this market to hit the highs so make sure you’re talking with your merchants on that.
Most of the canary seed crop should be starting to wrap up here in the next week or so. Canary yields have been fairly average this year from what we have been hearing. Harvest started off with prime weather in the main growing areas, but soon changed to cool and wet, which slowed lots of the harvest down. For the most part, the weather has changed and farmers should be able to pull all the crop off before the snow flies. Prices are stable with indications around 20-21c/lb FOB farm. Canary seed supplies have kept the market stable in the last while so make sure you are keeping on top of prices with your merchant.
The mustard market remains in the same trading range as the past couple of weeks with prices for all mustards holding relatively strong. #1 yellow mustard and #1 brown mustard are both trading at $0.40/lb picked up in the yard, while oriental mustard is at $0.34/lb picked up in the yard. All of these prices are for a Feb/March movement period as buyers are paying a premium for the later movement. We do have options at slightly lower values for quicker movement if you are needing bin space or cash flow. It’s never too early to start thinking about next year, so be sure to give us a call to discuss seed and 2018 new crop contracts.
Another stable week in pea markets with little change in pricing. At this point, oversea trade on yellow peas seem to remain quiet, but North American trade seems to be a little stronger especially for those markets where the peas are being used in value added processing. For growers close to the American border we have been able to take advantage of $8.00 FOB farm bids. In other areas of the province prices are trading closer to the $7.25 FOB farm. Green peas saw a little bit of increase to $8.75/bu delivered this past week, but that was short lived once orders were filled. Prices have now settled back at $8.50/bu delivered. What is interesting is that over the last week, several buyers are interested in purchasing Patrick and Pluto varieties at the same price as the larger varieties of peas. It has been a couple of years since we’ve seen buyers show a real interest in purchasing this size of pea. If you’re sitting on any this, it may be a good time to get some sold.
We are starting to hear flax yields roll in from different parts of the province with a wide range of numbers. Some have been reported as low 5 bushel/acre and as high as 30; overall, early numbers would suggest an average closer to 15 bushels an acre for the province. This year seems to be producing higher quality compared to last, with nicer colour and better weight. Only concern that growers seem to have is getting the green damage to cure as the flax just doesn’t want to completely mature. On the marketing side of things, price remains flat. Milling quality flax is still trading at $12.00/bu FOB farm and #1 flax is sitting at $11.85/bu Delivered to plant with some areas seeing as high as $12.00 delivered.
Soybean harvest pace in the US was recently reported at more than one-third complete, however it lags behind average. Tuesday’s USDA crop progress report pegged soybean harvest was 36% complete, which is behind the average of 43%. Harvest pace and technical selling have created a short-term ceiling on November soybean futures with recent technical selling occurring at the $9.75 level. Brazil is currently planting their next cycle of soybeans in key states of Parana and Mato Grosso. Average trade estimates for Thursday’s WASDE report expect soybean yields to be unchanged from the September report at 49.9 bu/acre and production will be slightly increased at 4,437 million bu. Local soybean bids are in the $10.25-$10.35/bu FOB farm range. Faba bean harvest reports have early indications of 30 bpa production levels. Average yields are expected to increase in the northern areas that received more precipitation. Local faba bean bids are in the $6.00-$6.20/bu FOB farm range.
Canola futures were depressed today as we wait for tomorrow’s USDA report. Most in the industry believe that the US soybean yields and ultimately production will be higher, which weighed on November, January and March futures. November ended its trading session at $493.50/MT, down $1.70/MT. This puts FOB farm bids at roughly $10.50/bu in the Kindersley/ Rosetown areas after a negative $30/MT basis. Tomorrow’s report should set the tone for soybeans and canola values for next few months. Please call with location for firm values FOB your yard or to throw out a firm offer.
Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.