All types of mustard saw an increase in price this week, ultimately putting all varieties over the $1.00/lb mark FOB farm; yellow being valued the highest, followed by oriental and brown respectively. Buyers continue to hold their cards close to the chest when giving out bids, and more times than not, their price sheet may be less than what they are actually willing to pay. Firm targets, a common theme throughout this week’s comments, seem to be the best approach to getting mustard sold at top end values. It is never too early start thinking about next planting season either and with that said, we have locked up our seed supply for the year. Give your merchant a call to discuss pricing on all types of mustard seed including free delivery to the farm, they will be happy to provide you with all the details. New crop mustard has started in light trade this week as well. We suggest growers keep in touch regarding 2023/2024 production contracts over the next few weeks.
The flax market has not shown much gumption as of late, being content to ride along sideways with bids hovering in the low twenties. StatsCan says flax yields came in at 24.5bu/ac, which if true, puts flax supply at a reasonably comfortable level for the year ahead based on average exports. This brings us to the big question: will we export to places like China and Europe who are both major export destinations for our flax, or will those markets continue to be filled with cheaper product from the Black Sea region, which unfortunately is likely to be the case. Today’s outlook would not project for any major jump in prices with the US as the primary destination for Canadian flax sales. The system does not look like it will be very active, and prices are likely to slide sideways and maybe slip some depending on how anxious we are as sellers. Bids are currently maintaining $22/bu picked up on farm in very light trade.
Canadian chickpeas had another record month of exports as the market maintains tone. Talk of wet conditions in Australia are laced with speculation on location and just how much it will affect the levels of production on specialty crops such as chickpeas. The export numbers out of Australia have been down for the previous year and the carry is expected to be higher than typical. This would keep buyer interest in Aussie supply over North American for a period of time. The Indian rabi crop seeding has started, and it is expected that acres will be down for the coming year as other commodities have a better return. This will ring true for Desi’s more than Kabulis, but it can affect the market on a whole. Current crop bids for a #2 Kabuli are at $0.50/lb FOB farm Oct-Dec with sample/Feed values at $0.35-0.40/lb depending on the downgrading factors. No talk of new crop values, but buyers are always interested in hearing where the grower wants to be for the coming year. Might be worth a conversation with your broker!
The lentil market has creeped up a bit again late last week/early this week. Most of these price increases have been currency related, but also growers’ reluctance to sell. Large green lentils have had offers trigger at 52-53 cents/lb picked up on farm while small green lentils have traded at 52 cents/lb on a #1 FOB farm. Early this week, we had a couple small red lentils offers hit at 33.5 cents/lb and suspect these types of targets are still worth throwing out. Most of the lentil shipping windows have been quoted as October – November recently, so product is moving relatively quick. Unlike the green lentil market, increases in red lentil bids have been subdued comparatively. Red markets will have Australian competition in the coming months as harvest progresses, so that may keep a roof on how high the market can move. Offers seem to be driving this market, so if you have a target price in mind, let your merchant know.
Marketing oats remains virtually unchanged from previous weeks, with assumptions being that lots of buyers are still crunching this year’s production numbers. All in all, it appears that the average yield for oats was higher than expected, which is going to have an affect on the overall price. Prices continue to hover around $4.00 delivered in Sask and up to $5.00/bu delivered in MB with a pushed-out delivery window. Most buyers seem to be bought up for the months of January – March, but anything before that and after is still catching some attention. There is still some hand to mouth trading going on so we highly suggest posting a firm offer if you have a sell price in mind should any pockets open up. The same can ring true for feed oats as buyers are looking to source heavy product for that market as well. If you have some oat stock on farm, getting some of this sold is not a bad idea right now as it doesn’t look like value are going to pop any time soon. Put some cash into your pocket and open a little bin space.
Feed barley markets continue to boast some strong values, but recent reports across the industry suggest buyers are struggling to keep up with the freight side of things. This means most posted bids carry a wider delivery window or are being pushing into the new year as buyers don’t want to promise a shipping timeline they cannot achieve. Indication for feed remains anywhere from $7.50 – $8.50/bu FOB farm all depending on location of the grain and time frame of delivery. It can not be stressed enough that these historically huge values are a sell signal for at least a portion of your product. Maltsters continue to be poking around for the odd lot, but overall aggressiveness remains subdued. Firm bids seem virtually nil, and all interest is derived from offers. Recent interest has been shown for late 2023 shipping, but this hasn’t grabbed much producer attention. If you have a sell price in mind for either feed or malt, we highly suggest placing a target as they continue to catch interest.
The pea market traded generally sideways this week with growers continuing to find success through firm offers, which seems to be a common theme across most commodities these days. Green peas remain bid around the $12.50/bu picked up level, throughout this week, based on max 3% bleach. If you have higher bleach product, please give us a call as there are homes for it. Yellow pea targets have been triggering between $12.50 – 13.00/bu picked up with movement before the new year and buyers seems fairly aggressive for more at these levels. Maple peas showed some much-needed strength this week, with trades hitting the books at $14.00-14.50/bu FOB farm depending on variety and location. There is some speculation out there that perhaps the Saskatchewan pea acres are down more than previously thought. StatsCan has acres down around 12% compared to last year, but it could be even lower due to the planting delays this past spring. There are some thoughts that the number is closer to a 15% to 20% decline. Let’s see what happens, but this year could certainly be interesting for peas. In any case, these values are strong; remember when yellow peas were stuck at $6 dollars not long ago?
A weaker Canadian dollar helped offer some support to canola pricing over the last week and futures are up again this morning at time or writing. There have been some positive signals in the canola market as of late, as basis levels improved across most purchasers. The palm oil market has also helped sharpen the canola futures and this recent rally could warrant more sales on the books. Looking ahead to 2023, concerns of soil moisture in Western Canada and South American weather potentially affecting soybean production, puts 2023 futures at an attractive level as well. New crop bids are available for Sep 2023 with an indicated basis level of $30/MT under. Call our office for options on both new and old crop picked up in your yard.
Wheat prices are mostly unchanged this week with feed wheat bids creeping up near #1 values in some cases. Indications for both markets are $11.50-$12.00/bu FOB farm with shipping before the new year. Spring wheat futures are adjusting to a rebound in production after the 2021 drought, and the strength in the US dollar is also a limiting factor. However, markets in general are usually forward thinking and traders might shift their focus to 2023 in terms of moisture conditions in the US. Durum bids have gained a little strength with the best prices seen further out into 2023, quoted around $13.75/bu. The weak Canadian dollar could take some credit for this as well, so putting some sales on the books could be a smart play in case of a currency correction.
The canaryseed market remains unbothered for another week, sitting comfortably in its current trading range. Buyer bids hover at $0.40 – $0.41 picked up on the farm with the later for pushed out Jan 2023 shipping. The market remains ho hum, but there is some question around where this market is headed with less acres planted, but far better yields. On farm stocks are on the softer side, whether reported or not, with the assumption not much would have or should have made it through last years highs in the 50’s. Does this market come back to life and warrant an increase in price? Some may say these are already strong prices and does it need to shoot higher, but only time will tell. For now, this market is stagnant and comfortable.
Soybean futures popped up after the release of today’s WASDE report. Inland waterway bottlenecks and US harvest pressure remain as the market headwinds. Local bids are location dependent and range from $17.00-$17.50/bu FOB farm. Dry beans are expected to have adequate, but not burdensome volumes harvested north and south of the border. Stateside, local bids are experiencing harvest pressure, but north of the line the weak CAD has cushioned the pressure on local bids. As earlier stated, Canadian faba production will be on the lower end of the spectrum due to fewer planted acres. This has been somewhat supportive for local bids with export quality #2 faba bids being in the range of $13.00-$13.50/bu FOB farm and feed quality values are near $9.50-10.00/bu FOB farm, location dependent. Competitive pressures from the larger Aussie faba crop are expected to contain domestic Canadian bids.
Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.