One of the crops being heavily affected by this poor harvest weather is flax. September reports suggested flax harvest was still under 10% completed and as we reach mid-October, we suspect that number is still valid. The small amounts of flax being taken off has had reports of quality and weight issues. With this, we have seen some life in the flax bids. #1 Brown flax has been trading at $14.00/bu FOB and milling quality yellow flax traded at $15.50/bu FOB. What will contain this upside in pricing is how the Russian and Kazakh crop’s come off. As of now, they appear to be affected by drought conditions which is supportive for our market. If this is the case, we could see flax prices staying strong into the 2019/2020 crop year.
As of October 7th, canaryseed harvest is approximately 50% complete, which is not out of line from previous years. Canaryseed is more resilient than other crops out there and we hope it can stand up to some of this poor weather. Estimated yield is around 23 bu/acre according to Sask Ag, up from 19 bu/acre from the previous month. The canaryseed price has been sitting around 30 c/lb for a while now. The reason the canaryseed price hasn’t risen above that 30-cent mark is because buyers are able to secure product at these levels. Canaryseed bids could firm up as producers raise their targets.
Local growers in the Moose Jaw area reported chickpea harvest 80% complete and 50% near Estevan. These tend to be the areas that are adversely affected by the weather conditions and notable. Sprouting is a part of the daily conversation at this point with values hovering around $0.10/lb for feed and/or pet food markets. #2 chickpea bid and ask has come together as we see $0.26-$0.27/lb FOB farm trades trigger. This is location and quality dependant of course, but worth setting a target if it is near your trigger price. Desi markets steadfast in the $0.20-0.21/lb FOB farm range, but we feel there is traction there with an offer. General feel is neither buy nor sell, parties don’t want to stick their neck out for fear of being “wrong”, so the trades are very cautious with slow moves.
This week, feed barley prices remain stable. Harvest continues to be delayed as mother nature does her thing and buyers want to see how much is actually going to come off this year. The long-term forecast looks promising (for now) and lots of guys are back in the field. Some areas are quite advanced compared to others and with a stretch of good weather, we remain optimistic that this year’s harvest will be completed. Movement on feed grains is being pushed back as feedlots are bought up for October, so we are now looking into Nov-Dec, or further out, movement. This isn’t all bad news though, as bids seem to have some carry for deferred delivery. Prices right now are anywhere between $3.25-$3.65/bu FOB farm Nov-Dec, depending on freight. We also have buyers looking for malt quality barley, so send us your samples.
Pea harvest is still slowly progressing; however, most peas are already in the bin. Quality will most likely be deteriorated for anything left in the field and estimates based on previous years with similar harvest conditions/time line suggest quality will be as such: 19% #1 Canada, 59% #2 Canada and 22% #3 or lower. Looking at yields, Alberta reports lower values than StatsCan’s estimates, which has the 2019 crop coming in slightly below 4.5 million tonnes. Export has been strong for peas lately, but bids haven’t seen much change over the past week. Yellow peas are trading at $5.75 – $6.00/bu FOB, green peas are $8.00 – $8.25/bu FOB and maple peas are $7.00/bu FOB.
Oats continue to trade sideways this week. Latest reports show that oat harvest is sitting around 35% completed in Alberta, 50% completed in Saskatchewan and well, unfortunately, we’re waiting for Manitoba to dig themselves out of this latest bit of crazy weather to see where things sit for them. On the pricing side, everything seems to be holding steady with milling oats, trading between $3.40 – $3.75/bu delivered to plant. On the feed side, look for that $2.50 – $2.75/bu FOB farm. If you’re looking to lock in some new crop give your Rayglen agent a call as we have options available.
Large green lentils remain unchanged from last week. Product continues to trade at 24 cents FOB farm with a lack of 25 cent offers on our website triggering. The market seems to be comfortable at the 24-cent mark for now and sales are being made. Small green lentils hit 20 cents FOB farm if you’re willing to wait for Jan/Feb movement. Red lentils are also seeing bids at 18 cents FOB farm for that Jan/Feb movement. Large green lentils may be stalling out a little as the trade is telling us that Russia is selling greens for 18 cents CAD. This may hold lentils in check until the world uses up the Russian supply. Feed lentils range between 8 – 10 cents, and buyers don’t see much upside to this market as there seems to be a lot of supply. If you are unsure about marketing your lentils make sure to at least get your samples graded so you have the upper hand when marketing your grain.
The feed wheat market has shown some strength this week as harvest continues to be a very slow process. With the weather supposedly smartening up and allowing guys to get back in the fields, we should see some significant progress, finally. With that, we expect a glut of feed wheat becoming available to the market and that should knock values back down to lower numbers. This week’s feed wheat bids range from $4.30-$4.75/bu FOB farm. Milling quality spring wheat has slowly been rising price wise due to the large amount of feed wheat coming off. Today’s prices come in between $6.40-$6.90/bu delivered to plants all around the province. On the milling durum side of things, #1 CWAD has traded as high as $9/bu FOB farm in south east Saskatchewan, while the rest of the province hovers between $8-$8.50/bu FOB farm. This market has potential to climb up so be sure to call your merchant and put in your firm target.
It looks like the weather might finally improve for a week, and maybe give that mustard that is left in the field a chance to be harvested. We are waiting to see samples on the quality of mustard that is pulled off and if some still gets left behind. We are seeing a slight bump in spot yellow mustard. Yellow mustard is currently trading at 36 cents for quicker movement and higher for movement into the new year. Brown is still at 30 cents and oriental at 23.5 cents on Cutlass variety. All pricing is based on #1 grades and subject to sample acceptance. It may be time to talk to us about new crop contracting. Let us know what you are thinking for prices with an Act of God. We have also begun sales on all types of certified mustard seed delivered to your yard, both treated an un-treated. Call your merchant for more details.
Canola prices are still in the mostly sideways trend that they have been for quite a while. The November futures (which we will soon move off of into January) are remaining at about $460/MT in recent trade and have not wavered much in recent weeks. It sounds like harvest did perk back up in most areas late last week before snow and rain delayed things again, but canola is going to be one of the last crops off from most reports, due to lingering green. If the weather holds out for a few weeks of drier, as it is supposed to, we should be able to get a lot more of this crop actually in the bin and get a grasp on what our quality looks like. If the soybean markets continue to show some strength from progression in the China/US trade talks then we would hope that canola can ride the coat tails of soybeans a little.
Soybean futures are down a bit due to recent U.S. crop ratings not indicating big losses from last week’s U.S. cold snap. Furthermore, trade talks between China and the U.S. continue to tread water thus no one is feeding the bull market. Local soybean bids are trading in the range of $10.25-$10.50/bu picked up on farm. Dry bean bids have held reasonably firm with harvest delays being reported in Western Canada and North Dakota. We are hearing faba quality variability from this year’s crop. Some of which has been harvested whereas other geographies have yet to harvest. Exports are expected to wane a little this year as the rest of the globe resumes normal production levels. #2 faba bean bids continue to hover near $8.00/bu picked up.
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