Trades on canaryseed have slowed down over the past week or two as harvest across the province has ground to a halt due to weather issues. Prices remain at recent highs of 30 cents/lb FOB farm for those looking to cook while the pan is hot. We obviously have yet to see if increased harvesting will diminish the proverbial wind in the sails on this market or if it will keep floating along. The initial jump to 30 cents definitely cleaned out a decent amount of the canary that has been held onto for quite some time, so it might be a bit before sellers are ready to jump back into sales. If you have not moved anything at these values, there is no guarantee that we will be priced this high forever so moving at least some product now is likely the best play.
Flax harvest for 2019 has been minimal so far, with the focus being on more vulnerable crops. The delayed harvest has reflected on the near-term price, with values of $13.50/bu picked up in the yard being bid for product that is in the bin. Flax harvest in the US is also lagging, but not nearly as behind as western Canada with 60% harvested in North Dakota compared to 4% in Saskatchewan as of September 23rd reports. The US yields have been reported favorable and prices have dropped off in recent weeks. If the Black Sea region has modest inventories of flax, we could see export competition decline. While exports of flax have been quiet, the delayed harvest and lack of supply is enough to boost prices. How long these prices hold will depend on many factors in the upcoming months.
Well, this past weekend is one to forget as the weather continues to put a damper on this year’s harvest. The continued onslaught of rain and now add in the snow, has made what was out there for wheat, less than desirable. Meaning, more and more is moving into the feed market and the feed prices are starting to reflect that. The price range is varied, depending on your location, look to see pricing anywhere in that $4.00 – $4.35/bu FOB farm. Still better than the 2016 harvest that was moving in that $2.50/bu range. Good quality wheat and durum has been a little harder to come by. A CWRS with a 13.5 protein is fetching anywhere from $6.15 – $6.65 delivered into plant with the later for pushed out movement. As well, top tier durum may be quite the commodity to have right now as we aren’t seeing a slew of it moving in the market. Reports of top end durum are $8.25/bu FOB farm in SE Sask, but putting out an offer is never a bad idea to target the price you’re looking for.
Due to less than ideal weather, the oat harvest remains delayed and many producers are well behind their average pace at this point. This is reflected in the number of samples showing up in our office and a few buyers pushing to buy (unavailable) product. Thus far, 50% of the oat crop has been graded in the top two grades, which is lower than the 5-year average. We expect that number to dwindle even more as harvest commences, simply due to weathering in the field. As of last week, about 25% of the oat crop was reported off and in the bin. The price on oats, maybe somewhat surprisingly, remains stable week to week, trading around $3.40 to $3.75/bu delivered to plant, based on milling spec. Feed oats are trading between $2.50 to $2.80/bu range FOB farm. When you are looking for the most current and up to date prices in your area, please call your Rayglen merchant.
Canola futures have edged up slightly, just over $3.50/MT. November futures sit at $454.1/mt this morning. The harvest delays and quality concerns from recent moisture and colder temperatures across the province remain supportive to the market. The prices have not jumped significantly due to forecasts calling for warmer and drier weather later in the week. Carry-over on old crop supplies and firmness on the Canadian dollar have also been weighing on values. What changes the market price? Supply talks only have a limited shelf life, while demand is mediocre, analysts write that the government dictates majority of purchasing behaviour. When trying to understand price behaviour, there is a difference between market ready supply and potential supply.
Bean futures have pulled back a bit after Mondays big jump based on the reported lower stocks. Traders remain nervous as they await more info on the 2019 US production level. Lack of fresh buying from China, where markets are closed through Oct. 7, continues to limit enthusiasm ahead of trade talks set to start up again next week. Brazil planting pace continues to run behind schedule. Local soybean bids are trading in the range of $10/bu picked up on farm. New crop faba harvest progress is spotty given current Canadian Prairies weather. #2 faba bean bids continue to hover near $7.25-$7.50/bu delivered. Dry bean harvest samples are rolling in and quality appears to be good. Dry bean bids have held reasonably firm with selling opportunities across a few local buyers.
The large green lentil markets continue to strengthen for #2 or better product, with bids at 24c/lb picked up at the farm. Small greens are trading at 18c/lb on farm, with some potential for better bids based on high quality #1’s. Green lentils should have the most upside out of all the lentils as we assume quality will be the major talk this year. The question now is if green lentils carry their cousins, red lentils, along for the ride? So far, we have not seen this take place. That being said, red and greens are different markets and we don’t expect the reds to take off as quickly. The reds are still being hampered by tariffs and smaller demand. Until India becomes a major player in reds again, don’t expect big improvements in the market, but rather, watch for the small blips when buyers may be covering shorts.
Feed barley markets are stable this week. As snow and rain continue to hit the prairie provinces over the weekend, harvest gets pushed back once again. The long-term forecast seems to look good so far with no rain in sight, so maybe October will be the lucky month. Buyers have filled up October movement as of right now, so we are looking into Nov/Dec for movement, or into the winter months where you will see a slight premium if you can hold onto it that long. Prices this week on Nov/Dec movement are around $3-3.40/bu FOB farm, while Jan-Mar movement is between $3.25-3.60/bu FOB farm, both depending on location. The malt market has made a bit of a come back, so if you have malt quality talk to your merchant or call into the office for more information.
The pea market has not seen much of a change since last week. The Black Sea region is still supplying a good amount of peas into the European market and with Canadian peas being a higher value, we won’t see a lot hit the European feed market until later in the marketing year, as per reports. Current pricing on peas are at $5.75-6.00/bu FOB, green peas at $8.00/bu FOB and maples peas at $7.00/bu FOB. Depending on location, we may be able to push a little higher on green peas if the quality is good. There have been some reports of earth tag in all varieties, which is downgrading product, however, as samples are rolling in, we see the majority of peas harvested before the late rains being decent quality.
We’ve noticed a blip in the market when it comes to chickpeas but have not been able to decipher if it is market move or a short cover. #2 or better Chickpeas are rumored to trigger at $0.25/lb FOB for a longer shipping period and limited tonnage. Despite this information, and clear jump from last weeks $0.22/lb, it is like a ghost town when trying to find sellers or even resellers. Something is going on that we cannot put our finger on, but some thoughts are, posturing for the ANUGA conference in Germany coming up, a play at seed sales for the coming crop year or covering of a short. This could also be a long shot market speculation. Either way, its feels unstable. Desi chickpeas finally have a $0.20/lb FOB farm value behind it, but these levels do not translate to a sell yet. It is good news that they are back on the radar though and we will continue to poke for further bids and information. Feed chickpeas remain steady at $0.10/lb.
The mustard market remains flat this week. The next area to possibly concern buyers could be the weather. As we all know, the serious snow storm last week may have impacted remaining mustard left in the field. How many acres were caught out prior to the storm system? As this harvest slowly continues along, it will be interesting to see what quality of mustard is pulled off and if some gets left behind possibly. Yellow mustard is currently trading at 36c/lb FOB farm, brown at 30c/lb and oriental at 23.5c/lb on Cutlass variety. All pricing is based on #1 grades and subject to sample acceptance. Call the office for seed needs as pricing should be set shortly and as we move into October harvest hopefully wraps up for many more growers.
Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.