Flax prices are holding again for another week and while there is a mixed bag of pricing depending on movement and location, bids remain historically high in all areas. Prices are still holding at the $43-$45.00/bu FOB levels for now. The demand at these levels is mostly coming from the US. The biggest question is when the US will pivot to other locations for sourcing. Flax seed for next year will run into short supply, so call your Rayglen merchant sooner rather than later to help source supply. New crop targets did trigger last week in the $22-$23.00/bu range, picked up on farm with an act of God.
Barley markets repeat themselves and continue to show strength as we progress into the week. Feed bids show life once again despite the inevitability of corn reaching our boarders (if it hasn’t already). Offers at $7.75-$8.50/bu FOB farm are still triggering today, with firm values dependant on farm location and delivery window. Recent rumblings suggest maltsters have entered the purchasing game as well, as buyers look to get their hands on some product. A wide range of pricing indications have been thrown around and sit anywhere from $9.00 – $10.25/bu FOB farm pending delivery window, location, and quality. Malt buyers are willing to look at higher protein product at top end prices as well, so if this is a road you’d like to venture down, call in and we can sort out the details. Speculation in 2022 new crop is starting to pop up as well. Growers may want to start securing seed supplies as availability is presumably less than last year. We can help you source your barley seed!
Yellow peas continue to hold their price premium to greens. Recent yellow pea trades have taken place at $17.00/bu, with the odd $18.00/bu triggering in Southeastern Sask. Movement timelines are mainly quoted as December – January 2022. Green peas remain stable at $16.00/bu with the potential of $16.50/bu trading in certain areas. Feed pea markets have heated up a bit with trades taking place around $15.00-16.00/bu for fairly prompt shipping. Call your merchant if you have lower quality in the bin which you are looking to move before the new year. Maple peas remain quiet these past weeks; bids are stable at $18.00-19.00/bu FOB farm.
Sask Ag is showing a modest Canary seed yield difference with a reduction of 75,000 tonnes compared to 2020. The Canary rally seems to have run out of steam and prices have backed down to the 50-51 cent/lb level. While short-term demand seems to have been filled, it’s not clear if higher levels will return later in 2022. If we see some price rallies later in the year, suspect that volumes will be limited. Competition for new crop acres will be concentrated and some analysts are only expecting a 4% increase in Canary seed acres for the 2022 crop. Millet in the US has also come down in price and yields for the 2021 are expected to be fairly decent.
Last week’s chickpea tender was intended to be awarded on Monday, but it is still active, with everyone on pins and needles waiting for a response. The tender itself requires a portion to come from Canada, so it seems likely there will be some activity soon. Best to keep in mind this will likely result in a bump in the market versus a run. News out of Australia suggests their harvest is delayed, but decent. AUS production numbers are expected to be typical and according to overseas markets their offers are, on average, $100/MT less than where the Canadian offer lands. There is some solace in the majority of AUS crops being Desi chickpeas, but it is also the majority of what Pakistan and India like to consume on a daily basis. #2 Large Kabulis traded at a high of $0.60/lb this week from targets and pet food/feed markets are somewhere around $0.47-$0.48/lb FOB farm for last quarter movement. New crop values are still on the shelf.
After a big drop last week, canola futures markets have shot right back up and we are seeing some highs for this crop year. Physical trading is being based off the January futures, which are sitting at $942/MT, up from $893/MT last week. With local basis levels strong, bids for December are getting very close to $22/bu delivered to some plants around Saskatchewan. On the new crop side of things, November 2022 futures are now at $725/MT and new crop bids are approaching $16/bu delivered to plant. Renewed strength in world vegetable oil markets is helping push canola today. Also, concerns of a small Canadian crop remain intact as we continue to get a clearer picture of total production across the Prairies.
What a crazy week for oat prices! What started off as strong bids in the $8/bu range quickly shifted into high gear when buyers pushed to $10/bu delivered to plant for a time. At time of writing the $10/bu range seems to be tough to track down, but if you’re an interested seller let us know ASAP and we will try to firm it again. The big push seems to be a supply driven run of someone possibly covering a short that others did not want to be left behind on. These types of situations are not generally long lived as we did not see a run up in the oats futures to coincide with the move. That said, if you’re interested, we will look under some rocks and see what we can find.
Not much change in the mustard market this week. High bids and even higher-priced trades continue to hit the book. We still think the best way to trade mustard is with a firm offer through our target system. This is a very important marketing tool in this environment as posted bids are often below what actually trades. We also believe it may be time to book seed as the price could increase in relation to commercial sales values. There is also the real possibility of a shorter supply of high-quality planting seed which needs to be taken into consideration. Call us about treated and un-treated options with delivery to your yard. We even have access to the new brown and yellow hybrid varieties. Spot bids on mustard are posted as follows: Yellow at 90 cents/lb for a December to January type movement. Brown mustard sits at 85 cents and Oriental as high as 54 cents for the same approximate timeframe for pickup. Again, speak with your merchant in regard to putting out a firm target about posted bids.
Well, the page has turned on another week and again we continue to see strong pricing on wheat. Feed continues to trade in that $10-$10.50/bu range with movement by the end of the year or early 2022 on dry and heavy product. Flipping to the milling side, a 13.5% CWRS pockets around $11.70/bu delivered in December. As well, there is buyer interest for #1 CWSWS into Central Saskatchewan with pricing into the high $11’s to possibly even $12/bu delivered in. Turning to the durum, we have seen prices flatten since last week, though this looks to be more of a hiccup than anything. Buyer interest seems to be more geared toward the end of this year and into 2022 for the strongest pricing. If you have a firm target let your Rayglen merchant know.
Lentils remain quiet this week and are likely to stay this way for the near future. The major events effecting the lentil markets are as follows: perceived high values, logistic problems, and the upcoming Australian crop. Most concerning is Australia’s lentil crop. Reports suggest it is in great shape and will likely produce above average yields. It is assumed that a slowdown of Canadian lentil purchases is likely to take place knowing that there is a crop in Australia. The cheaper freight alone makes Australian lentils more attractive to the overseas markets. The world logistical problem is also a big factor affecting prices. With an unstable shipping schedule, it is hard for companies to a make a solid marketing plan. Therefore, no company wants to get themselves caught in a position where they have product that they can’t move on time should the market come off its highs. All these uncertainties have put the lentil market into a holding pattern. Reds remain between 46-48 cents/lb FOB farm, LGL lentils at 60-62 cents/lb FOB farm, and SGL lentils between 57-69 cents/lb FOB Farm.
Soybean futures have legged up since mid-last week. Positive momentum spurred on by sparse global edible oil supplies, export vs domestic tug-o-war, the prospect of expanding biodiesel production and domestic soymeal demand. Local bids have been as high as $14.50 to $15.00 FOB farm with farmer offers being the preferred marketing tool. Canadian faba yields are below trendline this year. The prospects of a successful Aussie faba crop and varied Canadian quality pose as headwinds for Canadian producers. Aussie exports may be hindered by domestic export competition from other grains and limited export capacity. Feed quality bids are near $13/bu FOB farm and #2 export quality hovering near $15/bu FOB. Canadian dry bean volumes are down sharply year over year and US volumes are expected to be down about 30% year over year. Lower bean prices in Mexico and Argentina may be a price bellwether.
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