Flax bids remain strong with brown flax sitting at $16.50/bu picked up and yellow at $18.50/bu FOB. The latest yield reports are unchanged from September with 25bu/acre as the average. These bids have encouraged some farmer selling and traded volumes have picked up as of late. Year to date deliveries, according to analysts, are at 78,000 tonnes compared to 19,000 tonnes last year. This rapid start could mean tighter supplies later in 2020/21. Reports suggest the Kazakh flax crop is not as damaged as expected and inventories for this month were reported 20% higher than a year ago, so the Black Sea’s supply may not be the concern that is driving these prices higher. However, there is still a rally in Chinese flax prices. The big question is, how high will Canadian prices go? Keeping in mind that with the new reports coming out of the Black Sea region, these higher Canadian prices could push more demand back to Russia and Kazakhstan.
Feed wheat prices have been gaining in value over the last while and are now trading up to $6.50/bushel FOB farm. Recently, there hasn’t been a lot of farmer selling on feed wheat side, but these new and improved bids may push some lower protein and/or quality milling wheat into the market. The closer you are to feed lot alley the better chance you have of capturing that $6.50/bu range, but other areas have seen strong bids as well. There is a lot of uncertainty in Russia and the USA for next year’s production due to dry soil conditions and it seems as though some of todays bids are reflecting this. Milling #1 CWRS with min 13.5 % protein ranges from $6.70/bu (Jan 2021) to $7.15/bu (Jul 2021) delivered plant in the Saskatoon area. Lower protein (min 12.5%) #1 CWRS ranges between $6.40/bu-$6.90/bu delivered plant; again, higher values seen for summer months. That being said, we do have a small push for nearby product at $6.98/bu (min 13.5% pro) and $6.69/bu delivered (min 12.5% pro) for Dec. 2020.
The pea market continues to show more strength as this week progresses. Yellow peas have bumped up to $8.00/bu FOB farm, while maple peas now trade at $9.00 – 10.00/bu picked up. Green peas remain a bit quieter in comparison, at $9.00 – 9.25/bu picked up. Looking over the last 4 years at yellow peas, $8.00/bu is within the top 1/3rd of values we’ve traded, and growers should consider making incremental sales at these levels. As per most of our conversations over the past month, we are always touching on price destination – where is it headed? As of right now, China is buying quite steadily, but what happens if they decide to pull the plug? It may be a good idea to get some sales on the book and take some risk off the table, particularly on the yellow pea side.
The glass ceiling has been broken! Canary seed pricing has hit $0.32/lb picked up on the farm for Jan/Feb movement. Pricing pick up is two-fold right now: first, we’ve heard production amounts aren’t quite where they were anticipated to be; roughly half of what was expected. Secondly, underreporting may be catching up to this commodity as those random bins full of stock that seemed to pop up here, there and everywhere, have dwindled down quite dramatically. This is one commodity worth keeping your eye on moving forward.
Lentils remain stable again this week, with Large greens leading the pack followed by small greens and reds in third place. After last week’s announcement of a smaller lentil crop buyers seem to be mostly concerned with what is available for large green lentils. Supply concerns along with increasing Tur price in India could have large green lentils continuing to strengthen near term. Following suit, medium and small green lentils are trending upward as well. Reds remain stable at 27-28 cent range, but with the uncertainty of what India will do with the tariff, we expect that market to remain quite for another week or so longer. Another interesting development that may impact red lentils is that Turkey reduced tariffs on durum this morning so we will be keeping a close eye on the situation to see if they reduce their lentil tariffs as well. If all countries hold steady on tariffs expect slow increase in red prices but if they decrease, watch for that market to gain some strength.
Despite a huge spread of 2020 seeded acres between Statscan (24% decline) vs Sk Crop Insurance (46% decline) conventional chickpea markets remain quite for another week. The demand for feed and sample quality has picked up though and bids have jumped a bit. Last trade on the books was $0.17/lb FOB farm for sample quality and buyers are looking for more. #2 kabuli bids are $0.27-$0.28/lb FOB farm for Nov-Dec movement and $0.30/lb FOB farm for Jan 2021. No talk of new crop bids for 2021/22 year at this point but feel free to call if you want to discuss possibilities.
Canola futures are up again this week. October basis levels of -35 translate to $11.65/bu delivered to elevator with carry across the board. Prices breech $12/bu in December and hold there till July 2021. Canadian Grain Commission reported Canadian exports are up 50% from the same time last year. The demand seems to be a push from the export market and while the rest of 2020 looks to be satisfied with supply, January and on still show strong demand and decent carry to shake those bushels loose.
Continued Chinese demand and dry planting conditions in Brazil continue to support soybean prices. US soybean harvest is estimated at 75% complete. Local soybean bids now hover around $11.50-$12.00/bu picked up depending on location. Fabas bids are aligned with long term trading values at $7.50 -$8.00/bu for #2 export quality. The higher end of the faba price range seems to be reserved for high tannin varieties. Increased global competition and the reestablishment of typical global trade patterns will regulate our local faba bids. That said, we are getting buyer inquiries on both current and new crop export quality fabas. North American dry bean harvest is approaching completion. Common classes of beans are expecting large production increases this year, whereas specialty beans will see tighter production volumes. Dry bean demand still exists, and buyers will be interested in purchasing any new crop contract overages. New crop dry programs will be released soon. Please contact Rayglen if interested.
Mustard demand seems to be the talk of the market and remains very slow, especially from the EU. Recent reports suggest we may also be losing market share to Russian markets. We are uncertain about their crop yet, but if demand is an indicator maybe it’s not going to be too much of an issue. Is this market share issue a long term concern? We shall see as time goes on into the winter. Bids today are sitting at $0.40/lb FOB farm for yellow for different shipping periods, possibly as early as November. Brown sits at 31 cents/lb for Jan/Feb pickup. Oriental Forge sits at 28 cents for Jan/Feb movement and cutlass is at 26 cents for the same new year shipping, both FOB farm. New crop mustard and seed has traded already, please call your merchant for the latest in prices.
The oats market remains relatively quiet on the pricing side, while, for the most part, buyers look to purchase product into the new year. We have a few buyers posting bids delivered out into Manitoba on a #2 milling oat at $3.70 to $4.00/bu for spring and summer months. Other options are available for Saskatchewan destinations, but delivered plant values are lower. If you are looking for a FOB farm price we can work that back for you and see which option will pencil out better in the end. The odd opportunity remains for shipment near term at a discount. Feed prices on the oats seem to have settled in at $2.25 to $2.50/bu range on farm, but there has been the occasional opportunity to sell heavy feed oats at stronger levels.
Barley continues to reach new highs as the weeks progress. Strong export and domestic markets have bids up to $5.25/bu FOB farm for feed in select locations. Those unable to hit the highs will still see values in the $4.75-$5.00/bu range FOB farm range. Strongest bids remain to be seen in SE AB and SW SK, but again bids outside those areas are attractive, so make sure to touch base with your merchant. Malt bids are sparse and maintain a very narrow premium to feed bids, thus many producers are opting to sell feed. Casual reports indicate malt bids are near $5.00/bu delivered with small variety specific premiums.