Flax markets have seen some buying interest over the past week, with prices at $12.50/bu picked up on milling quality for a Dec – Feb movement. #1 quality has picked up as well and is now trading at $12.50/bu delivered to plant. A yield estimate for Saskatchewan as of October 2, from the provincial Ag Department, was 20bu/acre with 64% of the crop harvested. Latest estimates peg flax harvest at 87% complete. Alberta yields are reporting slightly below average, while Manitoba is above average. Supplies of good quality flax are still lower with much of last year’s carryover being #2 or lower. The CGC weekly data shows flax inventories in Vancouver with most shipments heading for the west coast, it is likely destined for China, regardless of transportation mode. There has been some strength in the European market, but there is a good supply of Kazakh flax that still needs to find a home. The US market has helped Canadian exports and could pick up the pace even more. Canadian flax hasn’t seen a supply pinch yet, which could mean prices remain sideways for the next while.
Pea markets have not seen many changes in pricing this week. Yellow peas are trading at $8.00/bu delivered and green peas at $8.50/bu delivered. However, there is good opportunity in the South-East corner of Saskatchewan on yellow peas at $8.25/bu picked up. New crop yellow pea pricing has also come available for those looking to price match old crop with new crop pricing and bushels. Looking at the market, it is not just Canada that has seen exports into India sliding, Australia has as well. In a stat report, India has shown less interest in Australian peas, which has Australia starting to target the Chinese market too. This is just added competition for Canada and it isn’t expected to slow. Farmers in other regions have now familiarized themselves with growing peas and built trade relationships. The Canadian pea supply is important, but we aren’t going to dominate the market like we used to.
Most producers are now wrapped up in terms of harvest and on to fall work before the snow flies. This puts almost all of the canaryseed in the bin and another season in the books. It was a different harvest season again and a struggle for some with certain areas reporting massive drought and crop failures and other areas reporting about average conditions. Overall, this year, birdseed yields were not as bad as once thought. Ag- Canada is estimating that production will work out to around 116,000MT based off 254,000 acres. Although production numbers will be down, it doesn’t come as much of a shock to the market considering the drop-in acres. Last year acreage hit a total of 377,000 with production numbers of 140,000 MT – comparable yield numbers to this year. As far as pricing goes, canaryseed is sitting around 20.5c/lb FOB the farm, stable and with little to no sign of movement in the near future.
Feed barley markets are similar to last week. Feed lots continue to increase their corn rations, which is putting pressure on the feed barley market. More demand for barley will come as the winter months approach and temperatures start to dwindle. Until the corn market takes a rally we will likely see barley prices remain under pressure. Today we are seeing bids come in around $3.50/bu FOB farm in the Saskatoon area, with product moved by end of December. On the malt side of things, we are still seeing $4.25/bu FOB farm in certain areas for October-July 2018 movement on Copeland/ Metcalfe, and 6 row varieties. Also keep in mind, offers are a great way to show your grain to many buyers at once, increasing your chance of a trade!
Lentil markets remain sluggish as overseas traders continue to have little interest in purchasing Canadian stocks. The latest Sask Ag report has increased its latest yield numbers to 22.2 bushels per acre, up from early estimates of 21.5 bushels/acre. This is not a huge increase, but due to lack of export trades, this will have a significant impact on ending stocks. Overseas production is also affecting prices at this time as Australia’s crop is looking like it will be average and India is not reporting any problems yet. This market seems to be at a stale mate as farmers are waiting for a price rebound and buyers cautiously purchasing while not wanting to get caught long in a falling market. At this point in time there looks to be no quick fix to reverse market prices. It seems the only possibility of a price increase relies on weather problems arising somewhere in the world. Markets could take a year or longer to recover.
The chickpea market remains at a very high price for the time being, but slow in trade as the majority of the Canadian crop has been sold or earmarked to be seeded. There are some concerns this price will be facing downward pressure as seed acres in Mexico and other countries are expected to increase as they come into the planting season. For those still looking to price product, bids are maintaining low 70’s for large kabulis with under 10% 7mm sizing. We have still had some luck with some buyers looking to buy new crop kabulis at 42-43 cents per pound with an act for God for the 2018 crop year. If you are looking for seed for next year we have some supplies available, still at delivered to the yard prices. The desi chickpea market remains quiet floating around the 30 cent/lb mark for #2 Canada product picked up in your yard.
Soybean futures have eased based on US harvest progress; harvest jumped to 70% complete, 3 points behind the average but 5 points ahead of expectations. As stated last week, the Brazilian soybean planting pace varies by region based on current moisture. Southern region is receiving rain and planting is advanced whereas the central-west region is much drier and planting is delayed. Planting is roughly in line with a five-year average of 19% for this time of the year, but behind last year’s 29%. Local soybean bids are $10.30/bu FOB farm range. Faba bean average yields have been a bit disappointing and seem to be firming up in that 33-35 BPA. Local faba bean bids are in the $6.00-$6.20/bu range for feed and $6.75-$7.00 FOB farm range for export quality.
Mustard remains generally strong in this current environment. We are starting to see some new crop offers and seed starting to trade. Yellow and brown mustard are both trading at 40 cents picked up in the yard, while oriental mustard is at $0.32-0.34/lb picked up in the yard. Spring movement on yellow might actually see as high as 42 cents FOB. If you need quicker movement, limited tonnage may be available for faster delivery at the 40 FOB level. It’s that time of year, so be sure to give us a call to discuss mustard seed and 2018 new crop contracts. Act of God contracts picked up in the yard will be available and trading shortly. We have a good variety of un-treated and treated seed available, delivered to your yard.
Currency is the topic of discussion in today’s canola markets as a decision by the Bank of Canada to not increase interest rates sent the Canadian dollar plummeting. This, in turn, makes canola cheaper and more attractive to the export market. November made relatively strong gains of $4.10/MT ending its session at $505.70/MT. January posted slightly higher gains ($4.80/MT) finishing the day at $514.10/MT. Basis levels sit in the range of $15-30/MT under delivered to plant, working back roughly $11.10/bu delivered at a high. On a slight change of pace, Rayglen now carries canola seed! We offer roundup ready, straight cut and Clearfield varieties to fit the needs of your farm. These varieties stack up great against the competition for yield, price and quality. Please contact your merchant for more details.
We have not seen any major changes in the feed wheat market this past week. Feed values have held stable for max 1 ppm vomi product, trading around 4.50-4.85/bu picked up on farm depending on location. High vomi wheat also has seen little change over the last few weeks. Durum values have slipped over, dipping from 8.00/bu FOB farm in the southeast areas of the province to 7.75/bu FOB farm. Movement as of late has been Jan/March for #1 US spec durum with discount schedules to apply.
The oats market is showing signs of strength these days as some trading is starting to take place across the province. Interest is being shown for offers in the Saskatoon area around $2.50/bu picked up in the yard, significantly better than what has been around the last two months. If you have any milling oats around with a value in mind, be sure to call in and put out a firm offer. Feed oats continue to trade in the $1.75-$2.00/bu range picked up in the yard. We do have competitive options for light/slightly heated oats in most areas as well. These prices depend on the product as well as location, with the best prices being in the Regina area and further south.
Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.