Buyer interest seems to have shifted from yellow peas to green and maples this week. Green peas have firmed up and are now showing a price premium to yellows; something we haven’t seen in quite some time. A few deals were struck at $14.00/bu picked up basis #2 quality, max 3% bleach, with firm targets being the main catalyst to facilitating these trades. Maple peas have also taken a price jump, which started late last week, continuing into this week. Certain varieties of maples have been trading at $15.00/bu picked up in most locations, while even some of the less sought-after varieties are now seeing bids around $14.00/bu FOB. Renewed maple pea interest seems to be coming from China, which doesn’t come as much of a surprise as they are historically the main importer. Although yellow peas are taking a bit of a back seat this week, they remain priced at strong levels, with bids at $12.50 – 13.00/bu picked up. If you have a target price in mind, let your merchant know. Also, a friendly reminder to stay in touch if you’re needing seed this year, as we will have a few varieties available.
Feed barley prices remain aggressive today, but they carry a pushed-out delivery window into the new year. This week we have confirmation of two-unit trains of corn hitting feed lot alley and speculation of another slated to come soon. Buyers suspect this will eventually make an impact on feed barley values, but as of today we are not seeing that take affect. This adds further clout to the assumption that at some point end users will look for other, cheaper commodities to substitute for barley. Luckily, we’ve avoided any price drops thus far and growers may want to consider marketing even a portion of their production. There are still some pockets of earlier shipment being offered, however, the biggest setback remains the availability of trucks. Today, we are seeing a wide range in feed barely values due to logistical issues, with bids anywhere from $7.50 up to $9.00/bu FOB farm, all depending on timeframe of delivery and location. As is often the case, the closer to Lethbridge you are, the better the value should be. Maltsters remain relatively quiet this week, but we suspect this is due to higher feed values, and not wanting to overpay on their end just to keep up.
The canaryseed market remains ho hum, with buyer bids ranging from 40-41c/lb picked up on the farm with the later for Dec-Jan movement. Price support continues to hold for this commodity as carry out stocks are tight. Due to low carry, exports are expected to be tapered this year. It’s estimated that this year’s production increased 28,000MT over last year due to improved yields, which was greatly needed. This market continues to be a “cook while the pan’s hot” situation when the price spikes come. We’ll just have to wait and see if/when those opportunities present themselves and if markets follow the traditional patterns that have been interrupted for the past couple of years.
Chickpea growers hold posture as bids and buyers remain monotone for another week. While bids remain above average, other crops such as cereals and peas are being shipped in lieu of chickpeas in the hopes that news out of Australia will boost the Kabuli market again. Bids FOB farm for #2 Kabuli are around $0.50-0.52/lb depending on location and sizing. That being said, there are commercial sales happening (buyer to buyer trade) at $0.51/lb FOB farm. A bit of an inverse there which has a person thinking…. Chickpeas have several homes, which can mean different bid structures and value. Know what is in your bin! Get sizing and grades done and be ready to sell when the time comes.
Flax prices are unchanged for another week with bids in the $21.00/bu-$22.00/bu range picked up on farm. Despite record flax prices in 2022, seeded acres were relatively unchanged from 2021 and carryover for 2023 is expected to be close to an average level. Due to rivalry between other crops, some analysts are forecasting a decline in 2023 seeded flax acres, which might not come as much of a surprise considering the lack of acres seeded after record pricing in 2021. Competition overseas from the Black Sea region remains the front runner in keeping Canadian flax prices at bay today, while it looks like the possibility of lower supplies in 2023/24 could be the unknown that will drive up Canadian flax bids.
The canola market has seen mostly positive moves in the futures this past week, but a couple “off” days kept bids more or less sideways. January futures are up to $875.70/MT at the time of writing, which has bids flirting with $20/bu delivered to plant. We have growers that have been posting firm offers at $20/bu FOB farm and a few buyers showing some interest, but one of the hiccups is freight costs, which next to no one wants to own right now. If you have not sold anything, then consider any sale where you are into the $20/bu range as a good one and rewarding the market for honoring your patience makes sense. Every year we come across issues of bins heating with canola so keep that in mind if you have product in storage. Basis levels for fall 2023 are showing a negative $20-$30/MT range among some buyers, which is not a terrible rate to look at for offloading some risk. Obviously, there is a lot of time between then and now so drastic changes can occur, especially if we have learned anything over the last couple of years.
Lentil markets have settled down a bit this week, but values remain strong. Large green lentil bids have plateaued to 53 cents/lb FOB farm or a touch higher pending freight cost, while small green lentils remain at 51/52 cents FOB farm with continued demand. Red lentils have slipped a little this week, now trading between 33-34 FOB farm, down a penny or two from last weeks short covering spree. It looks as though buyers have covered their needs for now, but Australia is still a wild card in this market and will likely provide a strong sense of direction as to what happens in the next round of pricing. Buyers are still looking for French green lentils with grower targets trading over a dollar per pound this week. Interestingly, after some adjustments to input values, when looking at our crop planner for the 2023/24 season, large greens rank No. 4 and reds rank No. 7 in the return-on-investment category. These values were derived from average costs on a 3500ac farm and based on a 40 cent/lb large green and a 30 cent/lb red. For more info, please contact your merchant.
Mustard markets continue a blazing trail of good prices this week. Demand remains strong and consistent, and we’ve even seen new crop pricing roll out in some cases. We urge you to please talk to your merchant about new crop as targets may be placed. Spot price on all varieties sit over the $1.00/lb mark FOB farm again this week. Yellow mustard is still quoted the highest, around $1.15/lb, with brown and oriental not far behind. Again, in this market, firm targets remain a very popular choice for growers to sell their mustard and have proven successful in securing trades on all types. Mustard seed sales have also begun; we have all varieties of seed available, treated or untreated with free delivery to the farm!
The milling oat market continues to struggle this week if we’re being blunt. Bids are virtually unchanged, sitting around $4.00-$4.50/bu delivered give or take, in Saskatchewan, for pushed out delivery. Some opportunities exist to ship product into Manitoba closer to the $5.00-$5.25/bu range, but freight is likely to eat into those values. Regardless, if you’re near the eastern SK border, it may be worth a call to see what kind of value works FOB your farm. The story has not changed: large average yield numbers across the prairies have buyers subdued and uninterested in purchasing over valued oats in an already over supplied market. This could change, but for now the situation remains. Feed oats, however, seem to be sought after quite consistently and are quoted around that $3.75 to $4.00/bu FOB farm mark in anticipation of filling feedlots with a cheaper supply of product than barley again this week. As you can see, these feed oat bids are on par with milling in many cases so be sure to talk to your merchant if you have oats that need to move. An offer online might be the way to go to drag as much as we can out of this market.
The wheat market is holding its own as bids sit around $12/bu delivered, in central Sask, on a 13.5 protein CWRS with pushed out movement. StatsCan estimates wheat is up 3.65MT/ha versus last year; a nice increase, but still tight on carry in stocks. If you’re looking to pull a bit more out of the market, give your Rayglen merchant a call to put in an offer. Buyer appetite is seen for feed wheat and at strong values, but it seems product is just not finding its way into the market as this year’s quality isn’t much of an issue. Growers with slightly off spec wheat and in some cases even good quality wheat, may find more enticing values headed into the feed wheat market – something to keep an eye out for when marketing. Flipping to durum, buyers have been buying old crop around $13.50-$13.75/bu delivered in with bids pushing the first quarter of the new year. As well, we have seen some 2023 new crop moving in SE Sask, so if you are looking to market next years’ crop, let us know.
Soybean futures have enjoyed a couple of “up-days” being driven by a softened USD, higher energy prices, and global demand for edible oils. Local bids are location dependent and range from $17.00-$17.50/bu FOB farm. Dry bean prices are beginning to firm up as the market passes through a period of somewhat typical seasonally normal price pressure. Dry bean harvest reports out of Nebraska state later than normal harvest, and yields being under longer term averages. Aussie La Niña rains still loom over harvest quality setbacks, yet the impact on the faba production region is still unknown. Local bids with export quality #2 faba bids being in the range of $13.00-$13.50/bu FOB farm, and feed quality values are near $9.50-10.00/bu FOB farm, location dependent.
Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.