The flax market remains strong with pricing at historically high levels. The only real change in the market is movement; a lot of the flax buyers are now bidding into January – March 2022. Current bids for both brown and yellow flax are indicated at $45/bu picked up on farm. Flax prices in North America are ahead of global pricing, which indicates that most of the demand is coming from the United States. According to reports, once this demand gets filled there is the risk of values shifting downward to align with the Black Sea region levels. For now, prices are inflated, and we recommend taking advantage of the market’s current state. New crop values have slowly begun, speak with your merchant on picked up pricing with an act of God.
Canary seed continues to sit around $0.50- $0.52/lb this week, with movement being pushed into the later months of the year. The heavy run that we saw earlier seems to be gone to the wayside. A few new crop values have started to pop up over the last week with values shown at $0.35/lb FOB farm, including an act Of God. Historically, this is a great starting point to get something locked up for next year’s harvest. We suspect that seed supply, like everything else, will be in short supply this year, pushing producers to make 2022 seeding intentions earlier than expected. If these old crop or new crop values seem to be a couple cents shy compared to your sales targets, we highly suggest calling in to place a firm offer.
The oat market stays strong for another week. Spot prices are indicated are $8.75/bu delivered in with movement pushing past the new year. New crop pricing is bid at the $6.00/bu delivered range in Sask., with some stronger values seen in Manitoba. Will the market continue to trend higher, or will the month’s end see more profit taking? The oat market, along with other commodities have uncertainty regarding prices and there remains plenty of questions without answers. There is an abundance of unknowns such as supply chain as well as shipping and market risks that have been at the forefront of buyer’s minds the last couple of months. All in all, these historically strong values aren’t something to ignore, and we think growers should make incremental sales to hedge against possible market losses. Buyers are always willing to look at offers, so call your Rayglen merchant today.
Not much change in the barley markets as feed and malt continue to trade at high values. On the feed side of the market, bids range from $8-$8.50/bu FOB farm in most areas for heavy and dry barley. There may be a premium in far SE Saskatchewan for feed barley as high as $8.75/bu FOB farm, but this is widely freight and location dependant. High corn prices in the US are contributing to feed barley prices staying strong locally. Malt buyers appear to be dipping their toes in the domestic barley market, with bids showing up between $9-$10.25/bu FOB farm depending on location, spec, and delivery period. Some buyers are looking at high protein barley into the malt market so be sure to give us a call with your spec sheet in hand.
Canola creeped back up again after an unsteady previous week. November futures sit at $970/MT with January showing a slight discount at $960/MT. The dips from last week are now being referred to as “a break” and “unsustainable”. The bull remains dominant until proven otherwise. New crop acres remain a talking point as growers consider what they can seed and where chemical costs are. A few outliers that have been heard in conversation are concerns over seed supply and growers not able to secure a firm price from seed sellers to date. Until there is a better idea of intended acres the market will likely remain strong.
Mustard continues to reach record highs this week. Brown and yellow varieties are now trading at similar price levels when posted on firm offer, with oriental lagging a touch. To put this in perspective, #1 yellow mustard is trading 30-35 cents above its previous record high. Brown, 45-50 cents above and Oriental roughly 5-10 cents above its record high. The unknown aspects are: how many big chunks of yellow and brown are still hiding in the bins? Is there potential for a large sale from 1-2 produces to kill this market overnight? Does the Oriental market see more demand and strengthen with time? Many questions which are tough to answer at this point, but one thing is certain – these values are profitable and tough to ignore. Turning to new crop, we have seen some recent bids pop up, again, at historically high levels. Buyers are trying to entice acres to hit the ground and growers should take a look at potential returns compared to other commodities. Please call your merchant for different pricing and movement options all including an act of God. If mustard stays true to historical patterns/chart data, once a new historical high is hit, drastic corrections soon follow.
Lentil markets have gone from quiet, but steady to now dipping further. News that India is receiving rain, which has the country optimistic, and Australia’s crop looking to be in good shape have markets wavering. With projected estimates in Australia nearing 650,000 tonnes and it not uncommon for entities to underestimate by 1000,000 – 200.000 tonnes, it could mean production numbers close to 850,000 tonnes this year. Shipping concerns out of Canada have both buyers and oversea markets concerned that deliveries won’t show up on time. At this moment the trade is not aggressively looking for lentils and with the news stated above, red lentils will be likely having the most downside potential. This week we have seen red lentil bids drop to 46-47 cents delivered, large greens 58-60 cents FOB farm, and small green lentils 56-58 cents FOB farm.
Soybean prices are mostly sideways as the futures have traded in a tight range of $12/bu USD in the recent week or so. Current spot prices in Canadian market remain in the $14.50 to $15/bu range, in light trade due to low supply. Dry conditions and very strong pricing opportunities on just about every other crop likely leads to reduced seeded acres in soybeans out west again. Strong crush margins will keep buyers looking for product and should lend to continued strong basis levels. Expectations of even more seeded soybeans in South America could weigh on the price further down the road, but that’s not a problem today. Faba bean prices are still showing $13/bu range for feed quality and an extra couple bucks if you have an edible export quality on hand. Our faba numbers depend almost wholly on other markets around the world as we are a drop in the bucket on production and a price taker not a price maker.
Rumors of a chickpea tender award have still not materialized. That said, the tender itself requires a portion to come from Canada so we wait patiently. Number 2 Large Kabulis traded at a high of $0.60/lb this week on firm target, while pet food/feed markets show values on lower quality around $0.48-$0.50/lb FOB farm for November movement. New crop values are still not being offered. The thinking is we will see a bounce in acres from the very low numbers posted in 2021. Even if the acres pop up to 250,000 -300,000, that would be a fairly big percentage increase. Right now, it’s very hard to say where these numbers will shake out as we are in the early stages of crop planning. Also, chickpea quality suffered in 2021 with only 38% of the chickpeas being a #1, compared to the 10-year average of 46%. Seed size seems to have suffered as well with many growers reporting higher percentages of 7mm product after the heat we experienced. Call your merchant for any offer you may want to post, or any seed inquiries.
Yellow peas continue to drive the pea market with maples riding shot gun and greens relegated to the back seat. Yellow peas hold their strongest value in SE Sask. where pricing remains steady at $17 – $18/bu FOB depending on farm location, with movement pushed into the new year. The protein market continues to provide price support. Green peas are trading around $16/bu FOB for end of the year and into the new year on movement. Everyone is still trying to guess whether or not bids will go higher, but when $520/MT USD track is trading on greens it indicates that current FOB values are quite strong. Maple peas have garnered some interest of late with pricing in that $18 – $19/bu range. If you are holding on to some off grade peas give your Rayglen merchant a call as there is buyer interest at strong values.
Despite escalating prices, global wheat trade continues to have wind in its sails. China and the Middle East tend to be the most consistent buyers of late. Global stocks are down 17% in typical exporting nations and well below some of the burgeoning global stocks of 2005-06. Additional support is also being lent from next year’s forecasts. Some areas of China received a recent deluge and is consequently slowing winter wheat planting to 50% of normal pace. Furthermore, the U.S. Southern Plains is forecast to experience continued drought conditions affecting up to 30% of the U.S. winter wheat area. Local milling wheat has seen $12/bu and higher delivery opportunities for Dec. and into Jan. Feed wheat values are trading between $10.25-$10.50 /bu picked up.
Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.