Feed wheat values are similar to the last few weeks with bids around $4.30 to $4.70/bu picked up in the yard, location dependent. Stronger prices are for further west areas, as feedlot alley seems to remain the price driver right now. Finding homes for feed wheat before Christmas is tough and movement timelines have mostly been pushed out into Jan/Feb. High moisture wheat seems to be the talk of the town and we do have homes for tough product at a discount. Depending on the buyer the discounts range from a dollar figure per MT (i.e. $6/MT per % point over dry) to a percentage discount. Discounts usually increase in rate past ~16% as product moves from tough to wet. Milling wheat prices are quiet remaining in the $6.20 to $6.40 range delivered to elevator on #1 13.5pro. We have some milling durum pricing opportunities in the SE part of Sask for winter and into summer movement windows; check with your merchant for details to your farm.
There was some progress made in the flax harvest last week, but we have seen some quality issues. For any later harvested production, it is crucial to get your samples sent in to help us better understand where and how to market your product. For those with #1 quality, $12.50 to $13.00/bu is available, while milling quality flax is bid at $14.00/bu picked up in many instances. Yellow flax still remains around $15.50/bu. Flax sales have been sporadic so far; volumes to China have been limited due to built up inventories and Kazakhstan is reporting a 6% increase in inventories compared to a year ago. There could be an increase in price potential if the harvest delays turned into actual crop loss. Finally, something to touch on is that US demand is expected to be quieter this year, limiting our opportunities there.
Well, for the most part, harvest was starting to wrap up in a good majority of the prairies… that is, before the white stuff started flying Friday night into Saturday morning putting a damper onto the conclusion of harvest. Friday morning reports indicated that barley harvest was 93% completed across Sask. For many farmers now, what’s left in the field will be coming off in Spring. On the pricing side, things seem to be holding steady sitting anywhere from $3.25 – $3.75/bu FOB farm. There is not a lot of wiggle room for anything prompt, for the most part you are looking at Nov/Dec movement. Look for the latter pricing to be paired with later movement, think new year. One thing to note when you’re talking to your merchant is knowing if your product is making weight and if it’s dry. Both of these numbers are critical to finding a home for your grain.
The pea market has seen little excitement when compared to last week. As harvest is slowly wrapping up, the bulk of the peas are already in the bin and the completion rate has essentially quit moving at 96%. Therefore, as per reports, the pea crop is now estimated to be 4.37 million tonnes. Looking at our export volumes, the bulk of the peas have been heading into China and when comparing other years, exports into China have usually increased during this time of the year. Current pricing on green peas is $9.00/bu FOB, yellow peas are $5.75-6.25/bu FOB depending on location, and maple peas are trading at $7.50/bu FOB.
This has been a very challenging year for farmers across the Great Plains as the weather hasn’t been cooperating with producers. The good news is that harvest is near completion because of a 2ish week stretch of favourable weather. That being said, the canaryseed market has not changed at all for roughly a month. The price has been very stagnan, but strong, and hanging around 30 c/lb FOB farm based on sound quality. As of October 21st, the canaryseed progress was reported to be 77% complete, behind the 10 year average of 80%. We suspect that number to have risen after the week following the report. Canaryseed is a resilient crop and can with stand weather situations, which may be one reason buyers are not panicking to buy canaryseed at the moment.
Canola prices are stable this week as futures remain rangebound around $450/MT. Although most producers were able to get a good amount of combining done over the last couple weeks, we still have reports of unharvested canola. Reports of green, tough and down right ugly canola is hitting our phones as well… does this mean markets will react? Well, we hope so. For those who have this type of product, we do have buyers that will take it, so please get your specs and we will find you a bid. For those lucky enough to pull off #1 canola, we have bids in the $9.50/bu delivered bid on prompt movement, which may be a good option if you need bin space. We also have a buyer with a free storage contract available. This means you can deliver canola without locking in futures or basis, and price it out in the future. This alleviates storage risk such as heating. Talk with your merchant for all the details.
Soybean futures have been drifting lower since last week’s short rally. Market bulls are still hoping on a smaller US carryout number coupled with any forward advancement in the Chinese trade deal. Local soybean bids are trading in the range of $10.25-$10.50/bu picked up on farm. Dry bean harvest delays have kept the market reasonably supported. Harvest samples have started to roll in with early harvest product showing best quality. Faba quality appears to be variable once again this year. Top quality fabas, located in the right freight zone, have traded as high as $8.50/bu FOB farm.
Red lentils remain stable while large green lentils slip a little this week. Rumors circulated around the industry that a shipment of large green lentils destined for India have been rejected upon arrival. Whether this is true or not doesn’t really matter now, as the scare of similar situations happening has already hit the market. This translates into #2 large greens trading at 22 cents this week, down 2 pennies from Monday’s trades. We hoping this is a small stumbling block, things get sorted out and markets return to their upward trend, but this is to be seen. Red lentils still trade at 18 cents FOB for later movement and have not swayed for a couple weeks. The pulse market appears to be on shaky ground as any spooks or concerns from overseas seems to initiate a downward trend.
The oats market hasn’t been giving us much to talk about lately as guys are finally wrapping up their harvest. This isn’t necessarily a bad thing as the prices have remained stable at strong values. So far, Canadian farmers have delivered 660,000 MT into the market in the 2019-20 marketing year. This is a 90,000 MT increase when compared to the same time frame last year. This trend bodes well for farmers as we shouldn’t see a decline in prices over the next few months. Milling oats are trading between $3.40-$3.75/bu delivered into plant depending on location and movement timeframe. On the feed side of the market, indications are between $2.50-$2.75/bu FOB farm for a Nov/Dec movement period.
Prices have stayed similar to last week with some light trading in different mustard grades this week. Yellow mustard popped last week, and bids are stable at 38c/lb FOB farm on a #1 for movement early in the new year. Again, we are waiting to see mustard samples after the late harvest, but most are reporting they got it off this year. Brown mustard prices are still at 30c/lb FOB farm, and oriental, depending on variety, is bid between 23-25c/lb FOB farm. All pricing is based on #1 and is subject to sample acceptance. If you are ready to start thinking about next year’s crop plan, we have certified mustard seed available that can be treated and is all delivered to your yard. For new crop contracts, show us offers and we will bring them back to our buyers.
Chickpea exports are reported to be higher than last year with Pakistan being the catalyst behind it. There are rumors that the neighbouring countries to India have been importing more than usual and selling to India as way to get around tariffs. This is rumor and not sure how sustainable it is, if there is truth to it. Main export markets today for Canadian chickpeas are US, EU and Pakistan. Best practice is to watch these markets as opposed to India. Current values for #2 Kabuli range from $0.24-0.26/lb FOB with smaller sizes at a $0.02-0.03/lb discount. Desi market has finally picked up! No reported trades but the buyers are calling in looking for offers and asking about quality. There is not a lot of confidence in quality given the harvest weather so if you have it in the bin, get it graded. Good quality desi’s should add value to your book this year.
Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.