The prices for flax remain up from the usual seasonal trend with $16.00/bu FOB farm available for relatively quick movement. Yellow flax pricing is just north of $17.00/bu picked up and in light trade this week. Flax demand is expected to remain strong from China, the EU and the US and potential exports will be limited to the size of the Canadian flax crop. Earlier reports suggested that heavy rains in China had reduced their flax yields, however the majority of flax growing regions were not hit the hardest and the issue could be less serious than earlier indicated. The Black Sea region has some reports that their crop is going to be 10-15% less bountiful than last year, but far from an actual disaster. While there could be some upside to flax prices, those higher prices will likely start to discourage demand for Canadian supplies.
Chickpea bids in the last couple of weeks have strengthened for movement into the new year. Analysts question the sizing of the Canadian chickpea crop, but have little concerns about the quality. Some of the chickpea exports in the past have gone into markets that utilize lower quality, with better grades expected this year, that could also make it more difficult to export into new channels. The lower kabuli production in other countries could finally be the push that the North American crop needs to fill some of the demand. Bullish sellers will keep bids at bay even if supplies are comfortable.
This week yellow peas are getting a bit more buyer interest. Bids are being shown at $7.25 – $7.50/bu picked up on the farm with movement by the end of December. Green peas have not changed much in price from last week, with buyers still bidding at $9.00/bu picked up in the northernly areas and $8.50/bu range in the south. Western Canada has been seeing strong export pace, with more focus towards yellow peas, which is supporting the rise in current prices. Maple peas have been much slower in comparison with current pricing is at $8.25 – 9.00/bu picked up on farm. Currently, growers have slowed their selling since bin space isn’t the main topic anymore. As per reports, we can likely expect bids to become a bit more aggressive into the 2020/2021 marketing year to influence selling as farmers become more bullish.
For the most part, barley harvest is wrapped up across the Canadian prairies with the exception of a few growers just finishing up. The spread in value from feed to malt remains minimal and some growers are opting to sell their malt into feed markets for movement advantages and an available sale. Feed barley has been trading between $4.00 to $4.50/bu FOB depending on location and movement. Stronger bids are seen if you can live with shipment in the Jan-Mar 2021 period and/or the closer you are to feed lot alley in southern Alberta. As for malt barley prices, reports suggest they have been sitting around $5.00/bu delivered in on 2 row Metcalfe and Copeland varieties if you are able to find a bid. Our malt buyers remain quiet, but have indicated we may see some bids in the coming weeks.
Oat markets remain steady this week with little to no spread between milling and feed bids in many cases. Milling markets continue to be indicated at $2.50/bu FOB for a large part of Saskatchewan, with the exception of the SE corner, where we’ve seen some product bid up to $3.00/bu FOB. For comparison, feed oats, so long as they are heavy and dry, are seeing bids in the $2.50/bu range as well. We hope that the development of new markets such as the oat milk market will provide more opportunities and better values to milling quality oats, but so far that remains amiss. This year’s increased acreage and higher yields may subdue a price hike near term.
Canary continues to hold steady again this week as pricing remains firmly entrenched at $0.30 – $0.31/lb picked up on the farm with movement between Oct – Jan. If you look back on canary pricing since 2016, there is a pretty hard ceiling halting this commodities movement past $0.31/lb. Is this the year to burst that bubble? There are reports of US millet issues that have already pushed red millet past canary pricing, with white millet on the rise as well. That being said, this is a commodity that can turn on a dime as there is only so much need. Only time will tell.
Soybeans continue to rally to levels last set in 2018 based on dry conditions delaying planting in Brazil, strong exports to China and bullish expectations of Fridays (Oct 9th) USDA report. Local soybean bids now hover around $11.00/bu picked up depending on location. Fabas bids are aligned with long term trading values at $7.50 -$8.00/bu for #2 export quality. Increased global competition and the reestablishment of typical global trade patterns will regulate our local faba bids. Dry bean harvest progress varies across the North American growing areas, but generally speaking is 75% complete. Some classes of dry bean (navy, pinto) will have sharp production increases year over year, whereas white bean production appears to be relatively flat year over year. Dry bean demand still exists, and buyers will be interested in purchasing any new crop contract overages.
After a slight dip earlier in the week, November canola futures bounced back and are up from last week’s prices. November futures are sitting at $525.30/MT at time of writing, compared to $520/MT at the same time last week. There is a bit of carry in the market for the January futures as they are at $531.70/MT, compared to $528/MT a week ago. The strength in the market appears to be coming from palm oil and soy oil price increases as well as a decrease in farmer selling as harvest begins to wrap up in most areas.
Lentils markets continue to strengthen this fall and now many buyers are starting to show interest in small green lentils. The most common bid for small greens is 28 cents/lb picked up on farm, but we are hearing some better delivered prices depending on location in the province. Large green lentils remain strong with prices at 35 cents per pound for on farm pickup, while red lentils remain stable at 27-28 cents. Buyers are also looking for French greens and Beluga lentils with some strong indications. All in all, lentil markets seem to be strong at this time. Keep an eye on these markets as we approach the end of the month, this is when India will revisit their tariff protocol.
Wheat markets have had 3 strong days to start the week with both CWRS and CWRW gaining strength; on Monday both wheats had hit a 5 and 8 month high. Wheat markets are on the move due to weather concerns for planting in the US, Russia and Kazakhstan. Markets are also being affected by reports the USDA is expected to cut the 20-21 wheat carryover forecast, as well as world inventories are likely to shrink. On the feed side of things price are in the $5.25-5.75 depending on location. Low protein wheat was also been trading around the $6.75-$7.00/bu delivered range.
Mustard prices remain fairly flat as buyers still report slow overseas demand at this point. There has not been enough news to shift the price greatly one way or another this week, but we are seeing a slight increase in some brown and oriental for further out movement. Bids today are sitting at $0.40/lb FOB farm for yellow; show us offers at $0.41 as they might be looked at for shipping in the new year. Brown sits at 30 to 31 cents/lb; again the 31 cents may be available for shipping further out. Oriental Forge sits at 27 to 28 cents depending on movement and cutlass is at 25 to 26 cents for new year shipping, both FOB farm. Even though October is just beginning, it may be time to actually start thinking about new crop contracting soon. Call your merchant with offers.
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