Barley continues to pull some historical figures on product destined for the feed market. Area dependant values are indicated at $7.50 – $8.00/bu FOB farm for relatively quick shipment. If you are on the fence about selling, now may be a good time to pull the trigger as reports suggest nearby corn imports will reduce the need for feed barley, ultimately decreasing the value. Scattered showers throughout the Prairies last week will also increase the amount of feed hitting bins, another bearish signal for our strong values. The malt side of things seems to be growing interest as well and we suggest targeting $9.00 – $9.50/bu for good quality 2-row malt. We aren’t 100% certain these values will trigger, but recent rumors suggest maltsters may be interested in purchasing these values. At the end of the day if your offer trades, then great, if not, at least you didn’t leave money on the table. Delivery windows are starting to be pushed to October forward, so if you need cash flow or bin space consider making sales now.
As yield reports roll in, it is no revelation that pea supplies are going to be down in Canada and the US. This continues to support pricing with green and maple pea values increasing again this week. Green peas now have targets hitting at $17/bu picked up while buyers start to trigger maple peas at $18/bu picked up. Yellow peas are still priced competitively at $16/bu FOB but are showing a little less strength in comparison. Production in the US is also significantly down, which has US pricing showing strong gains. We have buyers looking for all qualities, so if you have #3 or feed specs give your merchant a call and we will work to capture the strongest values.
StatsCan estimates flax yields to be 30% below the 5-year average and the smallest crop since 2011. If that estimate is correct, then our export program for the upcoming year will be forced to reduce. As of August 23, only 1% of Saskatchewan flax was harvested. The Black Sea region also has reports of smaller yields which means that area will also have difficulty maintaining the level of exports they are accustomed to. We can expect flax prices to remain at record highs until the prices force buyers out of the market. A positive for flax marketing is that substitution is difficult for the majority of the linseed users, which should keep this market bullish. Prices do vary depending on movement, so call the Rayglen office for sale options once your flax harvest is underway.
The milling wheat market remains strong, but in light trade this week as bids remain comparative to feed pricing. This closeness in value makes milling sales tough as added quality specs push growers to make “easier” sales with very little spec to uphold. The feed wheat market trades between $10.00 – $10.75/bu FOB farm pending your location, with the highest bids still being seen in Western Sask. and Alberta. In comparison, good quality milling CWRS wheat, has been quoted between $10.50 – $11.00/bu delivered plant basis 13.5% protein. The durum market has been taking off like a rocket recently with bids for #2 or #3 CWAD sitting around $20/bu. If those values don’t quite do it for you, we suggest using the target system to try and squeeze a bit more out of the market.
The canary seed market is turning up the heat once again with bids of 54c/lb for sound quality actively trading. Strong values look to stay buoyed due to decreased production estimates here at home. As well, there is noise that Argentina’s outlook for planting is estimated to decrease roughly 30%. Couple that with continued production issues over in India and the year over year decrease in Niger seed and all together this could be interesting. The one hurdle to pushing things too much further may be the increase in US millet acres. With all that said, prices are at all-time highs, but how much further this market can go remains a mystery.
More reports are starting come in on mustard being harvested, and like everything else, the yields have been reported poor. The market has been a little more aggressive this week after sitting fairly flat for some time. Buyers are still looking for product and quick movement is still available. Posted bids remain at the following levels: Yellow mustard is indicated at 60 cents/lb, brown mustard at 50 cents/lb and oriental at 40 cents/lb, all picked up for a #1 quality. It is important to note that trades have triggered much higher on offer. Call your merchant with a target for any timeline and price, and we will see what we can do to get it traded. Also, early seed orders are available for next year already. Talk to your merchant on this, as we are striving to keep pricing as close as we can to last year, but treatment costs are up like everything else.
The chickpea market in Canada is holding firm this week, encouraged by a surprisingly low production number coming from the StatsCan report released on Monday. They are estimating a 63,000 MT crop this year, down 72% from last year’s production. With chickpeas being such a small crop, we need to take this number with a grain of salt, but the overall trend lower is in line with expectations and should keep our prices high in the meantime. Current bids are as high as 60 cents/lb FOB farm, based on #2 kabuli chickpeas with max 10% 7mm sizing. Our buyers are taking looks at all offers above those values and we have homes for smaller sized chickpeas as well.
Lentil markets have softened a bit over the last week. All markets seem to have lost some steam, but reds have taken the biggest decline going from a peak of 55 cents/lb last week, down to an average bid of 50 cents/lb this week. That said, we have seen targets trigger at 51-52 cents/lb, so we encourage growers to try and push the market on firm offer. Large greens showed some slight declines from the highs as well, but we currently still have players in the 65 cent/lb FOB range. We suspect this bid isn’t very deep, so if you’re on the fence about selling, now may be the time. Small green bids remain strong trading at the 60-62 cents pending location and buyer. Again, posting targets at the high end is encouraged. Price decline/demand softness is attributed, for the most part, to harvest pressure sales and buyers taking delivery of pre booked contracts, which is relieving the pressure of needing product to fill orders. Markets will likely continue to have an ebb and flow until a firm number on supply is determined instead of just estimates.
Canola markets have been up and down through the week. November futures sit at $882/MT compared to $892/MT from last week so slightly down, but the demand is still strong for bushels. StatsCan predicted a drop of 24% in canola production from last year. The general trade tends to look at the StatCan numbers as overstated which could account for the lack luster response in the decreased production. Soybean oil futures are also seeing a decline in value which effects Canola but again, very little response to date. This indicates very tight stocks with no one willing to take a leap one way or another on exactly how short the supply might be…yet.
The oats market has been strong but sideways the last week or so. Sellers have not been offering up major tonnages, but a few sales here and there have kept things rolling along. For good #2 oats many bids are in the mid to high $5’s per bushel picked up on farm, with higher pricing being seen for those who are willing to hold out for 2022 for movement. We are seeing lighter oats around this year, but sales on those can still eclipse $5/bu in the yard in many cases, still a solid return. Harvest has been largely on hold the last couple weeks so reports have not brought much new news on what the rest of this crop will look like in terms of quality. Despite the already vastly reduced quantity, we hope some warmer days will come soon and we can at least see an end to the harvest on these disappointing yields.
Soybean futures have been in an overall downward trend since mid-August. Recent downward pressure is associated with gulf logistical damage due to hurricane Ida. Chinese crush volume is dipping slightly further, bringing additional burden to the soybean complex. Rains also continue across the Midwest. Local bids remain well supported near $15.00/bu delivered. Buyers are open to any reasonable offer as posted bids remain scarce. North American dry bean production will be markedly down this year over last year. Around the globe, Mexican bean production will be lower and Argentinian production is expected to be up. North American bids are being led firmer by US values founded on the production volume decline. The UK faba bean crop is expected to yield well. That said, local demand is likely to consume production and limit participation in export markets. Very minimal new crop has been harvested, with bids hovering around $10.50/bu-$11.00/bu delivered.
Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.