Canaryseed values have remained relatively stable this past week, still quoted around $0.34 – $0.35/lb FOB farm for prompt movement. However, finding bids at $0.35/lb is becoming challenging and the market is growing increasingly freight sensitive. As the 2024 crop continues to be harvested, the demand for quick movement will likely diminish, and prices could soften further. Selling some tonnage now might be a prudent move to generate cash flow and free up bin space, especially given reports of decent yields across the Prairies. The canaryseed market will likely be impacted by increased supply as growers wrap up harvest in the coming weeks.

Harvest progress for peas is strong, and while supplies are expected to be larger than last year, they aren’t anticipated to overwhelm the market. The yellow pea market remains steadfast, with prices hovering around $9-$9.50/bu picked up, in light trade, with location playing a key role in firm pricing. There are still uncertainties surrounding demand from India and China, with China likely sourcing from Russia. Green peas continue to see bids around $14/bu picked up, supported by rumors of a possible tariff reduction from India. Maple peas have experienced increased interest recently, with bids ranging between $17-$19/bu delivered plant depending on variety.

Flax bids have seen a slight increase in Eastern Saskatchewan this week, with bid quoted at $17-17.25/bu picked up for shipping October through December. The flax crop in Kazakhstan is expected to be larger than previous years, which will make them competitive in the global export market. Since March, Canadian flax exports to the EU have picked up due to tariffs on Russian flax, although Ukraine made a significant appearance in June. Looking ahead to the 2024/25 crop year, most Canadian flax is expected to move south to the U.S., but there is anticipation of some product being destined for Europe. Opportunities in China will likely be filled by supplies from Russia and Kazakhstan. Prices are expected to remain supported but will vary based on market availability/ demand.

The oat market remains subdued, with bids continuing to hover around $3.75-$4.25/bu delivered for fall movement. There’s a slight price increase for new-year contracts, but only by around a quarter more per bushel. It’s essential for growers to be aware of their product’s quality, particularly with reports of lighter oats being more common this year. Growers with light spec are encouraged to reach out to their merchant as there does seem to be some purchase interest, though it will likely come at a discount, ultimately affecting the bottom lines. Despite generally strong yield reports thus far, bids seem to be holding steady with no signs of significant market shifts at this time.

China’s anti-dumping investigation into Canadian canola imports officially began on Monday. The investigation will cover imports from January 1 to December 31, 2023, as the Chinese government claims evidence of dumping. This follows Canada’s decision to impose a 100% tariff on Chinese electric vehicles, escalating tensions between the two nations. While there is no set date for potential tariffs on Canadian canola, some speculate they could be implemented around October 1^st , coinciding with the EV tariff. Although the 2019 canola dispute with China still lingers in many minds, some analysts are more optimistic, citing Canada’s new crushing capacity and alternative buyers like the EU and Japan. As of now, local canola prices are around $573/MT, but growers should reach out to merchants for more accurate local bids, including FOB farm options.

Wheat markets have remained relatively stagnant over the past week, with futures trading mostly sideways. While quality concerns continue to linger, there seems to be less chatter these days, but it’s still too early to draw conclusions about overall crop quality. Durum prices are generally holding around the mid-$8/bu range throughout the province, with some higher bids in southeast Saskatchewan, where values have touched $9/bu for movement into the spring and summer of 2025. Feed wheat prices remain between $5.75-$6.25/bu picked up on the farm, with potential for slightly better values heading into winter. Globally, weather conditions for wheat are varied, but there doesn’t appear to be enough volatility to significantly impact markets. Global wheat supplies remain ample, contributing to the current low-price levels.

The mustard market remains frustratingly quiet, with little fluctuation on the demand side of the equation. The recent Statistics Canada estimate of 191,000 tonnes for the 2024 mustard crop has likely contributed to this lack of momentum. If this estimate holds, it would be the largest mustard crop since the 2016/17 season, and 12% higher than last year’s production, although many in the industry are skeptical of this figure. Yellow mustard prices are holding steady in the 41-43 cent range, depending on movement timelines, but it’s crucial to check for updates regularly as the market can shift quickly. Oriental and brown mustard bids remain flat at 30-31 cents per pound, picked up on the farm. If you’re looking to free up bin space or generate cash flow, reach out with any offers, and efforts will be made to secure a trade.

The barley market has shown signs of life, particularly benefiting growers in southwest and west-central Saskatchewan. This increase in value is partially due to a lack of sales, creating a need for feeders to cover shorts for the October-December shipping period. Growers in these areas are now seeing bids back up around the $5/bu FOB farm range and sales are hitting the books. Those not in the wheelhouse can expect bids between $4.00-$4.50/bu for the same time period. As always, growers in Alberta will see strong bids due to their proximity to feedlot alley. For more precise pricing, it’s advisable to reach out to local merchants. On the malt side, bids have been reserved so far, but indications suggest pricing in the mid-$5/bu range with potential for stronger demand in the next couple of months.

Soybean futures have faced a slight downward trend this week due to better-than-expected weekly crop condition ratings. However, the market regained some of those losses today as traders await guidance from Thursday’s USDA WASDE report. Local soybean bids are hovering between $10.25-$10.75 FOB farm. Challenging weather conditions in Argentina are expected to severely impact dry bean production, which might result in renewed demand from Mexico, although it’s expected to be more muted compared to last year. Various bean classes are currently priced between 51¢ to 55¢ delivered. Meanwhile, export demand for fabas remains subdued due to sufficient production in Australia and the UK. Feed-quality fabas are holding around $8.00/bu FOB farm.

Lentils continue to show strength in the grain marketing world, with green lentils holding on to the lead for potential returns. Large green lentils are trading as high as 52¢/lb delivered this week, while small green lentils are reaching up to 47¢/lb FOB farm for later movement. In the U.S., Richleas (medium green lentils) are trading at 34¢/lb USD. The green lentil market remains firm as overseas buyers continue to replenish their stocks. However, new sales activity has slowed as farmers focus on completing harvest. Red lentils have remained stable, quiet and in light trade with prices around 28-29¢/lb FOB, with odd target triggering slightly higher, but not exceeding 30¢. Farmers appear to be holding out for potential price improvements later in the fall, while traders are keeping a close eye on Australia’s crop development. Early estimates suggest the 2024/25 Australian lentil crop could hit 1.69 million tonnes, though unfavorable weather conditions in South Australia and Western Victoria may impact yields. Overall, the lentil market generally remains a bright spot, providing more stability in pricing compared to other major grain markets.

Chickpea sizing reports on 2024 production are beginning to roll in, and the results are more optimistic than initially expected. The average sizing breakdown so far shows roughly 20% 9mm and up to 15% 7mm, which is better than anticipated considering the dry conditions experienced during critical growing periods in most areas of Western Canada. While it’s still early to get a comprehensive understanding of the crop, the overall sentiment remains positive. On the global front, Australia has reported lower-than-average export numbers, suggesting their chickpea supplies might be tight. This could generate increased interest in North American supply as the Australian harvest is still a few months away. Although prices remain stable, buyers are keen to know the exact quality and size of what they’re purchasing. If you have off-quality product or need guidance on marketing strategies, reaching out to your merchant could help you make more informed decisions.

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.