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Rayglen Market Comments September 12, 2018

The pea market may be through the seasonal low as there was some slight price recovery this week. Yellow peas are seeing bids at $6-6.25/bu picked up depending on location. Green peas are trading at $8.50/bu delivered. There doesn’t seem to be any change coming from the Indian government as their borders remain closed to foreign peas. Green peas are seeing other buyers coming to the table though, which is showing some upside potential that the yellows may not have. We can hope that later in the marketing year, India comes back to the table, but we should not bank on it. We also have bids on maple peas sitting around $10.50/bu picked up. If pricing isn’t what you are looking for today – trying out a target is a good option for this time of the year.  

Canary seed has been picking up a tiny bit of momentum in the last little while. Farmers have been consistently selling at 21.5-22 c/lb FOB the farm this week.  The StatsCan report estimates yields to be around 26 bu/acre, down from the 5-year average of 28 bu/acre. It has been months now that the canary seed export market is well below the average for the time of year. Supply this year will definitely be tighter than previous years and time will tell how that effects market pricing. One thing that can be said is, we have a chance of prices bouncing higher as producer’s inventories grow smaller – although not a guarantee.

Soybean production in the US is forecasted to increase to 4.69 million bushels, which is greater than the August forecast, but within the upper range of the pre-report estimates. Seeing as this wasn’t entirely outside the range of expectations, Chicago soybean futures are essentially holding flat today. There is some additional weight for the market to bear, as China has recently hacked soybean import forecasts by approximately 10% (10 MMT) in response to continued trade tensions with the US. Local soybean bids are in the range of $10.30/bu picked on farm. Faba bean market continues to show export support predicated on reduced exports from drought stricken Aussie sources. Primary demand is for large zero tannin varieties; however, opportunities exist for high tannin varieties as well. Local bids are in the range of $8.50/bu picked up on farm location dependent. Dry edible bean market is still fairly steady with solid demand for certain varieties. US harvest is roughly 30% complete, whereas the Canadian harvest is yet to show any measurable progress just yet. Contact our office for dry bean marketing opportunities 1-800-729-4536.

The Canadian Grain Commission released their estimated ending stocks with no real surprises, so markets remain unchanged. Markets have been flat since the start of the new crop year and look like they will remain that way for some time.  Estimates show acres for all lentils only decreased by 636,900 acres and with a yield drop of 12/lbs per acre, production will only shrink by approximately 400,000 MT. these lower numbers sound like good news, but the killer is the carry in stock of over 500,000 MT compared to 2017 and 800,000MT over 2016.  The last time we were this close to this amount of carry in was 2014. Estimated ending stock for this year is 720,000 MT, 200,000 MT above the five-year average.  Estimated exports look like they will be at least 200,000 MT below the five-year average. These numbers show that price will likely remain flat until export markets decide to take more product.  The U.S.D.A also released information this morning showing the United States will have their second highest supply of green lentils on record.  This too will add to pricing struggles for green lentils.  At this point there will not be a quick recovery to lentils, but hopefully this is the bottom and price will recover slowly with stronger numbers by next summer. For strong numbers to return we will need to see consecutive reductions in acres and production next year.

A mixed bag of events in the chickpea markets as harvest progresses in the US and Canada. Samples are showing there could be a problem with smaller sizes which could put pressure on 9/10mm prices. The US market is reporting large production estimates of 447,000 MT in the bin so far compared to 250,000 from last year and 144,000 MT on a 5-year average. In addition, Australia output will drop significantly from 3.04 MMT to 1.97MMT. Taking everything into consideration, the market is stagnant to weakening. Get a handle on your sizes to know your market. Bids this week as follows; #2 Orion/Leaders drop to 22-23c/lb FOB for 8/9mm and 19c/lb for smaller sizes and varieties. Could be an opportunity for cargo with only 9/10mm at a 2-3 cent premium.  Feed values somewhere between 10-11c/lb FOB. All bids are location dependant.

Feed wheat softens a bit this week. We were seeing aggressive buying with trades going out at $6/bu FOB farm in certain areas, but that seems to have faded. It bought a lot of product and now buyers are bought up for the nearby months. This shifts the focus to further out movement and less aggressive bidding. Corn is putting also pressure on the market which in turn pressures wheat. This week, prices are around $5.80/bu FOB farm in certain areas. Make sure you are talking to your merchant about offers. With this market so volatile you may catch a spike in pricing.

Oats have held steady this week with very little impactful news coming out as producers continue to pull off the 2018 crop. On the milling side of the market, prices continue to trade in the $2.50-$2.90/bu price range picked up in your yard for movement a few months out. Top prices for milling oats are for far south east Saskatchewan locations and freight knocks the bids down the further north west you go. For heavy and dry feed oats, indications remain around $2.00-$2.25/bu picked up in the yard for movement in the next couple of months. As always, get in touch with your merchant or call the office to get a bid picked up in your yard.

Flax prices have seen some action this week, with bids up to $12.75/bu FOB taking place on #1 quality. We have since seen, pricing back off.  We have seen some offers on milling quality trade at $13.00/bu picked up for movement after the new year. Call your Rayglen merchant so you can also capture these markets with your offers. Some analysts write that 25% of new crop flax should be sold. As noted before, even with the smaller carryover, the upside is likely to be restrained by Russian/Kazakhstan supply.  The prices here in the prairies are already perceived as high according to overseas markets. Yellow flax markets are a little more sideways with prices in the $13.00/bu range picked up in the yard being indicated.

Mustard has remained the same this week – no changes up or down basically; some overages to production contracts that are in the bin are being booked. We are certainly range bound until something gives. Prices stay firm on brown at 30-32c/lb, yellow at 33-34c/lb and oriental forge in the 28c/lb range, all depending on variety and movement. All these bids are FOB farm on a #1 quality. Also remember if you have production contract, make sure your sending your pre-ship sample off to buyers so they can get them graded. Call your merchant if you need an address for shipping that sample, as we would like to get these in as quickly as possible.

Canola markets down slightly today after the Canadian dollar posted some gains. Other pressuring factors were a marginally weaker soy oil market. Futures lost roughly $2/MT across the board today with November finishing at $491.70/MT and January just under $500/MT. Basis levels remain unchanged from last week, which pegs delivered to plant bids at roughly $10.75/bu. FOB farm bids are available so please call your merchant with location and quantity.  For up to date information on bids, please ask your merchant about our text/email alert system.

The malting barley market has a few bids on the east side of Sask, with some buyers looking at $5.25/bu picked up at the yard on a full crop year program, i.e. out to July. Talk of corn coming from the US has put a damper on the feed market currently in the last week or so, but it has not had a huge effect on the prices so far. As stated, the feed market is still holding up alright with bids around $4.50/bu range in many areas of the province. Buyers are interested in seeing firm targets if today’s price doesn’t hit the spot of what you’re looking for as well.

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.