Last year’s average Canary seed yield was pegged at roughly 29bu/ac across the Prairies. This year, estimates range from 14.5-18bu/ac, which is virtually half of the year prior. With this information, it is really no surprise that values are reaching record levels. Markets have been bullish since the start of harvest and for now, seem to be holding steady as we move into mid-September. Based on recent buyer indications, growers can secure bids in the $0.58/lb range picked up on the farm; this is up 3 cents from last week. If you are looking to squeeze a bit more out of your product, it is not a bad idea to throw up a firm target. Although we can’t guarantee a trade, this is a good tool to make sure you’re not leaving money on the table. How high will Canary seed go? It is very uncertain at this point, but we suspect there comes a time where it is viewed as overpriced. Making small sales along the way to hedge against the downside is never a bad play, especially at record price levels.
The mustard market continues to move up as buyers look for product. Yellow mustard is priced at 70 cents/lb, brown up to 65 cents and oriental indicated up to 50 cents/lb, all based on #1 quality and picked up on farm. These are historically huge prices and if you have any mustard left in your bins, we recommend talking to your merchant on sales options. If, by chance, you’re not quite pleased with these numbers, we highly suggest throwing firm targets out to try and push these values higher. In this environment, most offers are being considered. Moving on to future sales, new crop indications have started to pop up. Buyers are looking to next year already and strong new crop values will be available. Although it is early, feel free to inquire on possible options with your merchant. Also, just like every year, we have competitively priced certified seed available which includes delivery to your farm. Mustard is finicky when it comes to grade, so cleaning up your own seed isn’t always the best play. Moving product in your bins at today’s high prices and starting with new certified seed is a smart play.
The flax market remains interesting to say the least. Historical pricing continues to be pushed into the market with trades taking place anywhere from $34.00 – $37.00/bu FOB farm pending delivery window and location. Although there is lots of flax still standing, if you’re lucky enough to have some off already we highly suggest making sales into these markets. Not necessarily saying you need to sell everything, but moving a percent now is a very wise decision. With worldwide tonnage of flax expected to be down these numbers do seem to make sense at the moment, but sustainability remains a real question. At the end of the day the end user must be able to pay these prices and the question remains: at what point do we start to rock the boat? Offers and targets are getting hard looks as well, so if you’re seeking a bit more call in and place an offer. Should the market start to find itself, we aren’t sure if these (for lack of a better term) crazy prices will stick around.
The pea market has taken a bit of a breather over the past week as some of the highs seem to be off the table for the time being. Bids on #2 yellows range from $14/bu to $16/bu picked up on farm depending on a few factors such as: October movement versus February and whether or not they were sprayed with glyphosate. Green peas bids on #2 quality are seeing prices from $15 to $16/bu FOB as of late. Maple pea bids are down in to the $18 -$19/bu range after some trades at $20/bu picked up on farm in recent weeks. It’s tough to say what these markets are going to do, but the initial price run up seemed to fill some sales, cover some short positions, and has applied some “harvest pressure” to the position. We still are catching trades at the high end of the bid ranges this week so there are still buyers at the table for those that want to generate some cashflow or take risk off the table.
Canola saw a big drop last week to $852.70/MT which is the lowest since June. Despite the value recovering, the last 7 days of trade has mostly been sideways. Today the November futures are at $879/MT. The bullish feel in the market is still present but today’s levels are still very tradeable. StatsCan reported a production number of 12.79mil tonnes for this year’s production. All of this information indicates a stronger market for the coming trading months, but we are in a strange year where anything can happen. The bids today should not be ignored if the bins are full.
Barley markets are sideways from last week with the anticipation of corn moving up having the biggest impact on pricing. Bids this week range anywhere from$7.25 -$8.00/bu picked up, freight and delivery timeframe dependant. Although unconfirmed, it is largely assumed that corn imports from the US will have more of an impact on barley prices once actual shipping starts in Oct./Nov. For now, the prices on barley are still high enough to encourage corn imports and we are likely going to see prices hug each other until 2022 crop becomes available. For those with barley available, make sure you know your test weight and moisture as any later crop may have some quality issues that warrant discounts at destination. The malt market has not been overly aggressive, but some stronger indications have popped up, still below the $9.00/bu mark.
The chickpea market has seemingly slowed down this week after recent jumps had brought bids over 60 cents/lb. Canadian chickpeas are at a small price premium to their US counterparts and look to be following a break in higher prices that the US market has shown. With a very small Western Canadian chickpea crop and a solid export program throughout the past year, a bounce back up into new highs for the year is still a possibility. Current bids are around 58 cents/lb FOB farm based on a #2 large sized Kabuli chickpea. These bids often have a maximum 10% 7 mm sizing restriction, with discounts on any amount of 7 mm above the 10%. Large chickpeas should be in high demand this year as the drought conditions have resulted in a lot of smaller sized seeds.
StatsCan numbers are in and it’s looking a little thin on wheat this year compared to last. This puts us on pace for the smallest crop since 2007. Where it sits now, total wheat production numbers are pegged at roughly 38% below last year’s harvest. As such, we’re seeing some pretty strong values. Feed wheat continues to trade around $9.25-10.00/bu FOB farm. As well, buyers are interested in #1 and #2 HRSW with a 11% or more protein. Having your grading sheet will definitely help in marketing as we’ve seen prices range from $10 – $10.50/bu depending on farm location and spec. Call you merchant for pricing opportunities in your area as there may be room to grow. Flipping over to durum, we have seen milling prices retract this last little bit coming in around that $18/bu FOB farm in SE with a price pull back in SW Sask. to $18/bu delivered, both for pushed out movement basis #2 CWAD. These values would be deemed a historically strong price on any other year but given the year we’re in and production pegged at roughly 3 million tonnes less than last year well… there is room to pull back up to previous values and possibly more if you are able to sit on your hands and hold out for a while.
The oat market continues to plug along with #2CW quality bid in the mid $5.00/bu range picked up at the yard with further out pricing showing a little more strength. Feed oats have seen some strong bids as well with trading taking place at $5.00/bu for high quality feed with the potential for slight discounts on weight and other specs. The oat market has not seen the downward trend like other markets so this may be the time to book a few loads. Here are a few things to remember when marketing your oats to ensure you’re getting the best value. Have the following information ready: weight, moisture, sprout damage and variety. The more information given to your merchant, the quicker we can put a sale together. As with most commodities this year, the majority of oat trades taking place are based off farmer targets. As this market is so competitive right now, buyers posted bids are usually slightly lower than what they are willing to pay.
Lentil bids remain fairly flat this week. The 2021 lentil crop was lowered to 1.8 million tonnes by StatsCan on a yield estimate just over 900lbs per acre. We will see what happens as the days go by, but there was no initial knee jerk reaction to speak of. Red lentils remain trading between 47-49 cents/lb FOB farm. The 50 cent FOB mark was not attained this week in trading and that seems to be a big target for growers. Large green lentils are now bid between 60-63 cents/lb FOB farm, with a slight chance of 64 cents in the right area. Small green lentils are also stable at 58-60 cents FOB farm. Buyers are also still aggressively looking for French green and Beluga lentils, so please call your merchant with offers.
Soybean futures are up largely based on veg. oil strength. Chinese buyers keep cautiously picking around the edges and making incremental purchases. That said, there were some large cancellations due to reductions in Gulf port fobbing capacity from hurricane Ida damage. US harvest is poised to move into full swing shortly. Local bids have been as high as $17.50 FOB farm, but active bids remain sparse. At 86k MT, Canadian faba production is forecast to drop approximately 30%-40% below the 5-year average and last year’s production number. Due to reduced volume, faba export business is expected to shrink. Not to mention the competitive pressures that will come from an above average Aussie faba crop. Old crop fabas trading between $10.50-$11.00/bu FOB farm location dependent. Canadian dry bean production is forecast to be down 30% from last year but in line with the 10-year average. US dry bean production is also forecast to be lower this year and will be supportive for Canadian values.
Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.