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Rayglen Market Comments – September 19, 2018

According to Statscan, oat domestic use has risen by 4% due to higher feed potential. Also, the exports, primarily to US and Mexico have risen by 5%, which is the highest it has been in 9 years. Manitoba and Saskatchewan have lowered their oat input by about 9% compared to the 10-year average. The oat supply for the 2018 crop year is expected to be a smaller than the 2017 and the 5-year average. The US is the largest importer of Canadian oats, accounting for 91% of export. Prices have been improving a bit, sitting around $2.50-$2.90/bu FOB farm.  The further you are in the southeast part of the province, the better the price is. On feed quality, bids sit between $2.00 to $2.25/bu picked up on farm.

Chickpea markets remain relatively unchanged from last week. Bids still hover around 23c/lb FOB farm for #2 quality with some sizing qualifications in place – i.e. buyers are looking for minimum 50% 9mm and maximum 10% 7mm product. For more clarification on these programs and a firm bid FOB your yard, call the office or your merchant. Other purchasers are looking for producers who wish to size their own product, with premiums being offered for true 9mm and higher sizes. These bid indications are coming in around 25-26c/lb FOB farm. Overall, chickpea markets are comfortable; meaning we do not expect to see much for price swings in the desired direction this marketing year. It is expected that heavy farmer selling could put pressure on the market, but for now shipments off farm remain stable and prices are holding steady. Growers should take advantage of any small opportunities that may arise as long term upward trends are not likely.

As it has been mentioned, canary seed production is going to be down this year. On paper, supplies are going to be tight in this 2018/2019 marketing year, due to decreased acres. We are getting a sense of that now, as there was not a lot of seasonal weakness being show in bids. Currently, we are seeing prices at 22.5c/lb delivered on canary seed. If that isn’t what you are looking for today, an offer would be a good opportunity to try and push the market. Exports have been below average, but as it stands, canary seed does have some upside potential in current market conditions.

Mustard markets are fairly similar to last week with the exception of yellow varieties, which have seen a slight increase of 1 cent, taking us back up to 35c/lb for #1 quality FOB the farm. Brown is still stagnant with 32c/lb obtainable and oriental remains at 28c/lb on Vulcan or Forge variety. If you have Cutlass variety talk with your merchant on your options. Yields were definitely not as high as some hoped for, with a lack of moisture being the main factor. This has slowed farmer selling and we suspect will continue too. Also, reminder to make sure you are sending in your harvest samples to either us or the buyer you have a contract with to find out your grade and get your name on the pickup list.

Reports on flax harvest in Saskatchewan as of September 10, showed only 14% complete, due to weather delays. Analysts report this is still ahead of average and the delays will not have an impact on quality yet. Flax prices are holding steady again this week at $12.50/bu picked up in select areas for decent movement. There is also potential for higher prices after the new year. Yellow flax pricing is also slowly creeping up with indications of $13.25/bu FOB or better attainable. Production forecast for the Black Sea region is up 14% according to sources. This would mean more supply for EU and Chinese exports. There is also harvest delays in the Black Sea region due to excessive rainfall, but again are not sever enough to ensure problems with the crop. Canadian flax prices are likely to remain steady throughout harvest.

Soybean futures bounced back 10 cents today after losing roughly the same amount yesterday. Not surprisingly, China and the US hold different opinions on the reliance China will have on US soybeans. China claims to have a strategy to reduce its hog sectors import reliance on US soybeans; down as much as 27 million tonnes. Stats Canada released production data today for the nations soybean crop. Production is forecasted to be down 200,000 MT to 7.5 MMT largely predicated on 1-million-acre planting reduction. US soybean harvest is just getting rolling and is roughly 6-10% complete. Expectations remain set on a big crop. Local soybean bids are in the $10.20/bu FOB farm range. Faba bean demand is still going strong and driven by heavy drought conditions in Australia. Faba export market is largely focused on the large zero tannin varieties, but interest in other varieties has surfaced as well. Local bids are in the $8.50/bu FOB farm range. Dry edible bean demand remains strong with the Canadian harvest right around the corner. There is greater demand for white beans due to lower expected production, however general demand for all dry edible beans is still decent. Call your Rayglen merchant for prices 1-800-729-4536.

The pea market has continued in the same trading range this week with no news coming out of India to stir the pot. Yellow peas are still trading around $6-$6.25/bu with on farm pick up. We still have a premium market for peas that make a dry matter protein spec, so if you haven’t already, be sure to get your sample into the office so we can get them tested for you. The green pea market has been showing signs of strength as of late with bids as high as $8.50/bu delivered to plant. With ending stocks from last year being tight, this strength isn’t a huge surprise. If you have any maple peas in the bin we are still seeing bids as high as $10.50/bu picked up in the yard. Pricing on maples has been dropping off here so may not be a terrible idea to price them out sooner than later. As always, if you have a price in mind give us a call to put out a firm target to our buyers.

The canola market is facing a multitude of problems and pressures, which is causing the commodity to lose traction in the market place; Soy and corn yield predictions continue to climb in the U.S., Trump and China continue to fight over trade tariffs and an increase in estimated Canadian production are all factors. Markets seemed to recover a little today as soybeans futures came back due to short covering. The short-term outlook shows continued downward pressure due to the above-mentioned topics.  Long term may show some upside based on another year of average yield, which is 40 bus/acre. Currently, we are just over the five-year production average of 19, 500,000 MT, estimated at 20,998,800 MT and projected carry out is roughly 1 million MT. This data by itself would suggest the price remains flat, but if China does need to replace soybeans due to American trade tensions, Canadian Canola is the next best thing, so this could boost canola prices.

It is reported that over 50% of the barley harvest is complete, with average quality and average yields. The remainder of the crop left in the field will likely not make malt due to the excess moisture. Because of the earlier dry conditions, DON levels have come in relatively low for initial samples, which is a bit of a bright lite in the storm. Barley bids remain steady this week as feed lots continue to look at subbing US corn. Bids on the farm are $4.10-4.50, which is freight sensitive with potential for a bit more out for producers in Alberta. If these values are not to your liking, consider writing an offer to the market. If you have malt, call your merchant to discuss options.

The lentil market continues the sideways action we have come to know in the past few weeks. The biggest piece of news that hit the market was talk of additional tariffs coming from India early in the week, but thus far not much has come to fruition on those. Reds prices were slightly off to start the week, with chatter from India, and bids seem to be around 15.5c/lb delivered to plant for a nice #2 quality. The large green market maintains bids at 17-18 cents possible on #2 quality at the yard and small greens are down to 16c/lb in many cases on a #1 quality. If you’re interested in moving lentils call the office as we are having minor successes with our offer system on reasonable targets in recent weeks.

Feed wheat continues slightly softer again this week. Harvest has been delayed by weather and quality concerns are creeping into the equation. Its getting very difficult to get $6/bu FOB farm unless in the southwest corner this week. Also, movement seems to be pushing further out, indicating buyers are meeting their needs for the immediate term. This shifts the focus to further out movement and less aggressive bidding. This week, FOB bids around $5.70 to $5.80/bu are more common. Make sure you are talking to your merchant about offers, as this may a way to get a few more pennies per bushel in your pocket.

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.