As of Sept 9th, chickpea harvest was only 9% complete vs 63% last year and 30% on a 10-year average. It is no surprise that the slower pace of harvest equates the unavailability of good quality chickpeas and a more available supply of pet food and feed market product. Canadian exports numbers showed a 26% increase of export compared to 116,000MTS in 2017/18 but we still are met with a lack luster response when predicting chickpea values for the current production. Australian production is almost identical to last year and while the USDA reported smaller crop, there is still a great deal of carry to eat through before anyone gets excited. Current #2 Kabuli bids sit around $0.22/lb FOB farm and $0.19/lb FOB for smaller varieties. Feed values are sitting @ 0.10/lb FOB farm. Desi chickpeas remain a mystery for yet another week as we continue to push for clarity in that market.
Dry bean yields were estimated at 38.5bu/acre for the 2019 production, but since have been revised to 37 bu/acre, which is still a record yield according to StatsCan. This is inclusive of pinto, black and navy. Larger exports are expected for the coming year, which could expand even further as heavy rainfalls continue in North Dakota, Southern Manitoba and Northwest Minnesota. North Dakota is 28% complete harvest vs. the 5-year average of 59%; Minnesota at 20% complete vs. the 5-year average of 64% and lastly, Manitoba being 6% vs 62% on a 3-year average. Seeded area in Mexico is reportedly down 21%, which would mean they should produce the smallest crop since 2011 with a production of 663,000 MTS. Local soybean bids are still trading in the range of $9.25-$9.50/bu FOB farm. New crop #2 faba bean bids continue to hover near $7.00-$7.50/bu FOB farm.
There is some interest being shown in the flax market this week for product that is in the bin. $14.00/bu delivered on brown flax is available but must be harvested as movement is prompt. With the delays in harvest, buyers are behind on filling some orders. We most likely will see prices fall back once the majority of flax is harvested. The other factor that will affect prices is the crop outcome in the Black Sea region. We will either see a flat market if their crop is sizeable, or if yields are reduced, we could see some spikes in prices, but it will take awhile for that to filter into the Canadian market. Yellow flax prices have been holding steady in the $13.00-$13.25/bu range picked up. To keep up to date on price alerts, make sure you are getting our text or emails.
Feed barley continues a downward trend once again this week. Buyers are being shown a tremendous amount of feed barley after wide spread rain. We are starting to see sprouted product as well, which you have to be careful with, as some buyers will start discounting after 25% sprouted. Rejected malt is also making its way into the market, plugging it up even more. Immediate movement is getting harder to find, so make sure if you need bin space, you get some on the books. Prices this week are anywhere between $3-3.40/bu FOB farm depending on freight and product must be heavy and dry for movement by end of December. There are discounts for lighter or tougher grain, just talk with your merchant on what you have. If you can hold the product into the new year, AKA Jan-Mar, you will see a bit of a premium.
There have been constant delays this harvest, as rain, rain and more rain continues to be a thorn in the backside of producers. These delays are costly and frustrating for farmers, not to mention downgrading on all crops. There is a lot of feed wheat and durum that is currently hitting the market and we suspect more to come. Large lots of product continue to be booked at $4.40 to $4.50/bu FOB farm range with buyers starting to get skittish and bids tougher to find day by day. Movement windows get pushed further out each day as well and for the most part, buyers want to see J/F/M 2020 product now. It would not be a bad idea to pre-sell some bushels before this feed wheat market drops even more. For good quality durum, there have been some bids around $8.00/bu delivered in the south-central part of the province, while milling wheat continues to hover in the $6/bu range.
The canola market continues a fairly sideways week with values working back to anywhere from $9.35/bu to $10/bu delivered to plant in most areas. There is not much for new crop off at this point as lots of canola is still standing (or in the swath) around the country waiting for the weather to smarten up to allow harvest to resume (or begin in some extreme cases). Obviously, the trade situation between Canada and China remains strained due to the ongoing trade spat between the US and China so we sit and wait for better days. Near term frost warnings raise concern for some of the green canola, but time will tell as to what damage, if any, that causes.
Harvest is slowly progressing as our current weather conditions continue to delay combining. In Saskatchewan, as per Stat reports, the pea crop is 80%, behind our ten-year average of 94%. We are still determining how these late rains and cold weather are going to affect the quality of the peas in the field. However, we can expect more peas moving into the feed market, especially any green peas that have yet to be harvested. Bids are sitting at harvest lows and may take a while to see any upside, as the Black sea region is moving their product into Europe at a discount to Canadian values. Currently, yellow peas are at $5.75/bu FOB, green peas are $7.50-8.00/bu FOB and maples peas are at $7.00/bu FOB.
Lentil harvest is progressing at about 70% complete in Saskatchewan. Any samples received here at Rayglen before the rain, quality was good; however, any lentils coming off now are starting to have issues with colour, wrinkle and sprouting. As more off grade product comes to the table, especially green lentils, we see upside potential in good quality #1 & #2 large greens and #1 small greens. Current pricing is at 22-22.5 cents FOB on #2 large greens and 18 cents FOB on #1 small greens. Red lentils have yet to see much upside, with pricing ranging from 16-17 cents FOB. Red lentil markets still have the threat of rising tariffs into India lingering overhead, which is going to hold pricing at bay for the meantime.
This poor harvest weather is not making it pretty for the oat crop right now as we are hearing reports of roughly 25% in the bin. We have seen a slight increase in prices from last week, as milling oats are trading in that $3.40 – $3.75/bu delivered to plant with the better price for pushed out movement and near the Saskatchewan/Manitoba boarder. As well, you can lock in some 2020 new crop oats at $3.45 delivered to plant for Oct-Nov movement. On the feed side oats are trading in that $2.50 – $2.80/bu range FOB farm, depending on location. Call your Rayglen agent for area specific bids.
The canaryseed market has maintained its strength, but due to lots of booking, delivery timeframes have been getting stretched out into Jan-Feb 2020. Despite some minor adjustments on expected production and continued delay in the 2019 harvest, trading is still taking place at 30 cents/lb FOB farm for those later movement periods. Some options do exist for a quicker movement at a slightly lower price. While there is lots of speculation this market could potentially move a bit higher, it’s not a bad idea to get some of your production locked in as a starting point at today’s values.
The mustard market remains flat this week with no price change. As of September 16th, Saskatchewan’s mustard harvest is 24% complete, well behind our 10-year average and the slowest pace since we started keeping such statistics. As this harvest slowly continues along, it’ll be interesting to see what quality of mustard is pulled off. For right now, yellow mustard is trading at 36 cents/lb FOB farm, brown at 30 cents/lb FOB farm, and oriental at 23 cent/lb FOB Farm. All pricing is based on #1 grades and subject to sample acceptance.
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