Chickpea harvest is well under way and reportedly 83% complete. Statistics on yield remains in the air, but undoubtedly there is more production coming off this year (157K MTS) compared to last (76K MTS). Globally, Argentina, typically a smaller caliber producer, will harvest their chickpea crop in Nov-Dec and initial reports suggest drought has affected yields and sizing, reducing their production. Mexico, typically a larger caliber producer, has seen a gradual increase in value on their production indicating potential supply chain concern. Bids to Canadian growers have also been gradually creeping up over the last several weeks with spot pricing at $0.48-$0.50/lb depending on location, FOB farm. Sample and feed chickpeas come in around $0.30/lb FOB farm depending on the down grading factor. It feels like there are some concerns in the market regarding supply availability as well quality, which still loom over North American production. The next StatsCan report is due out in December to shed more light on the situation.
The world of bean trading seems to be rather slow as of late, but rightfully so as the market continues to try and find itself. All around expected tonnage is set to be lower than previous years, making the hand to mouth trade lighter than normal. Sellers are hesitant to let go what they have given anticipation of an expected price run, but current indications for soybeans still range between $17.00 – $17.50/bu FOB farm. Faba bean bids sit around $13.50/bu FOB farm, which is a strong value to get something pushed into. The feed side of the market seems to be wavering near $9.50/bu FOB farm, another great value to get product sold into. The coming weeks should give us some more outlook as to what the pricing is going to do in the bean world, but quoted prices to date are still great values to get some cash flow and movement.
Flax markets have been quiet of late as most buyers remain hand to mouth on purchases, and sellers seem to be in no hurry to increase sales. Production numbers on flax are better than last year, but still a fair bit lower than the 5-year average. StatsCan is projecting 460,000MT for the year at this juncture, though there is still plenty of time for those numbers to be adjusted. The outlook on exports still projects US to be our #1 destination, although it is likely some tonnage will be heading towards the EU. Sales into China will be limited as they continue to buy cheaper Russian flax. Canadian flax harvest seems to be clicking along and edging closer to 50% done at this glimpse with the wetter and later areas yet to come off. Quality on flax so far has been decent with no red flags thrown up from buyers or end users at this time. Currently we are seeing bids at $22/bu picked up on farm, but as mentioned buyers are not aggressive so we may need to look under some rocks to find the right deal.
This year’s barley crop is pegged around 9.4MMT, which should provide a little bit of comfort for carry in stocks that are close to the 10-year average. Expectation is for carry out stocks to sit around 0.55MMT, keeping the margins tight. Strong corn pricing lends support to this crop and as such, we continue to see solid feed barley bids hovering in that $7 – $8/bu range with the latter closer to Alberta. Gone are the days of prompt movement as buyers are pushing into Nov-Dec or Jan-Mar on bids. That being said, if you have a specific price and movement that you’re looking for call your Rayglen merchant to post up a target. Malt bids have been fairly quiet this last bit so posting an offer out is a great way to snag some interest. Make sure you know your specs as this will go a long way for marketing it.
Pea markets have seen a little more demand this week, which is likely attributed to a combination of lack of farmer selling and a lower Canadian dollar. Yellow peas are in the $11.50-$12.00/bu picked up range, while green peas are indicated at $12.00-$12.50/bu picked up. If you have maple peas in the bin, there are some opportunities to get those moving as well, albeit values remain stagnant. The pea market is expected to stay fairly stable near term and likely throughout the year, but we may see small fluctuations. There are still some unknowns that could change this market including Chinese import needs, which could require more product from Canada if Russian peas are of lower quality. However, current prices are still too high for the feed industry, meaning it could lead to peas having to be more aggressively priced into the feed channels. Some analysts expect green peas to have a premium over yellow peas as demand remains steady along with a smaller increase in production.
With an improved canola supply this year, the canola futures market has returned to a more typical carrying charge situation. That said, prices for nearby delivery are still very strong and a good option for addressing any fall cash needs on the farm. Our lower Canadian dollar is stimulating local bids, but the CAD did begin to show an increase today. Local bids are in the range of $18.25-$18.50/bu for Oct/Nov shipping location dependent. Growers are still encouraged to throw out desired sales targets on our firm offer system as FOB farm if these values are outside your delivery zone.
Lentil markets have been pretty exciting over these last couple days. First, we had large greens pull up to 46-47c/lb picked up on the farm, followed by a spike in small green lentils as bids ratcheted up to around that 44-45c/lb picked up mark. Finally, shifting gears over to the reds, buyer appetite picked up as well early in the week with product triggering between 32-32.5c/lb FOB in a few different locations. At time of writing, reds have quelled a bit, with bids more susceptible to freight costs. Though we’ll throw in an asterisk as there has been a little action in the SE corner of Sask still at 32.5c/lb FOB. These are strong bids as Aussie crop exports in July were at record pace to date. Piling on to that, Aussie harvest will start to take place in Nov/Dec and will be hitting the market. The soft CDN dollar has helped prop up bids with buyers trading against the USD. Greens continue to hold value as yields are softer, there is less in storage and the Indian tur crop looks to be under a bit of pressure.
Oat markets are a bit “hit and miss” this week with the major players seeming to have good coverage until the new year. That said, recently there have been a few other buyers stepping into this market and making purchases for Oct/Nov movement. This week bids are as high as 4.50/bu FOB Farm for #2CW oats in the best freight areas, while feed oats are trading at roughly a dollar discount to those values in most locations with stipulations on test weight; feed purchasers are still looking for heavy product. Agriculture Canada’s latest report suggests that the oat supply will be approximately 4.98 million tonnes up from the August estimate of 4.82 million tonnes. The market may also see another increase once the final numbers are made available, which will further affect this market. Today’s prices are down considerably from last years highs, but still above historical prices.
Mustard markets remain strong this week and some varieties are even seeing a bit of an uptick in value. Brown mustard this week has trade as high as $1.01/lb for Oct/Nov movement, up 4 pennies from the highest trades last week. Yellow mustard has traded as high as 1.15/lb for movement out to February. Oriental is still sought after and is indicated at $1.00/lb for November movement with our guess being targets will trade higher. Last weeks’ Saskatchewan Crop Report pegged the mustard harvest to be about 88% complete, with the southeast having the most crop left to harvest. This years’ harvest is about 11% behind last year with reports suggesting that the provincial yield average is estimated at 1102 lbs/acre compared to 431 lbs/acre the year prior. There is still product to hit the bin, especially in SE Sask, so we will have to wait and see how that affects final yield estimates.
Wheat futures rallied overnight based on Russia’s partial military mobilization and the fear it will slow harvest progress and Black Sea exports. Couple that with a weak Canadian dollar and wheat bids are strong with local milling wheat values in the range of $11.60/bu FOB farm par Saskatoon region. Grading patterns across the Prairies are strongly tilted to the top two grades due to favourable harvest conditions thus far. That said, feed wheat volumes will be less abundant this crop year and current local feed wheat bids are in the range of $9.50-$10/bu FOB farm.
The canaryseed market did not really react to the StatsCan report last week. Prices remained fairly solid at that 40 cent/lb level and maybe a touch higher for deferred shipping. Buyers so far do not seem concerned about inventory as the numbers come in even less than last year. The production estimate of 157k tonnes, was below last years’ mark by a few tonnes. Yields certainly do get better as harvest comes off on the east side of the province, which may see numbers one way or another in the coming weeks. It’s important to talk with your merchant and perhaps try and offer at 41 cents/lb if these values don’t quite do it. For now, it seems the market has found its equilibrium and is comfortable in its trading range.
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