Canary continues to be one of the shining stars this harvest season. The 70,000mt production report from StatsCan helps bolster this number as this small crop is comparative in size to that of the prairie drought year of ‘88. Now that’s putting things into perspective. With tight production numbers we may see the ever elusive on farm stock, that’s been stashed away, finally come into play. No matter how you cut it, canary will continue to garner premium pricing for sound quality. Right now, you can still sign up new crop with an act of God for 26.5c/lb FOB farm with old crop pricing standing by its side. The future looks bright for this commodity!
The barley market has been slipping in value as harvest shrugs along. Current trades for feed barley have been between $3.50 – $4.00/bu range picked up with movement being pushed to winter months for the most part. That is a far cry from where it was trading earlier on in the year, but still a great value considering the large number of planted acres and current yield reports. The closer you are to the Alberta border, the more likely you are to get into that $4/bu range. Recent widespread rains have stalled harvest and are likely to push malt destined barely into the feed side, another bearish factor to watch out for. As producer reports flow in, we remind growers to get the test weight and moisture checked to avoid any discounts and surprises after shipping. Feed barley weight is a minimum 48 lbs, while moisture needs to be 14.8%. It is expected this year that shipments of US corn into southern Alberta will be virtually nonexistent due to the larger barley crop this year. This year’s crop is expected to be up 15% from the previous year and is the largest since 2013.
The yellow pea market has seen seldom trade over the past week as harvest continues to provide pressure. However, green peas did see some movement with close to $8.00/bu FOB achievable. We have also seen some product move up from the US as bids hit $5.50/bu USD, picked up on farm. As for yellow market, $5.50/bu CAD and sub $4.00/bu USD isn’t providing a whole lot of grower interest. Finally, in the specialty pea market, bids and interest remain tapered on an expected large production year. Specifically, the maple pea market continues to slip with $7.50/bu the most common bid. To lock in movement, we highly recommend signing up a few bushels of your maple peas if you haven’t already as we suspect this market has the most potential to fall apart. At this point, pea markets in general aren’t showing many signs of improvement.
Late rains and frost have been delaying harvest and boosting the amount of wheat and durum we are now expecting to move into the feed market. Feed prices may not be as strong as they were a month ago, but prices are still attractive. Depending on location, feed wheat and durum have been trading at $4.50-5.00/bu FOB, with the odd bid coming in north of $5 for prompt movement. Compared to the #1 wheat market that is closer to $5.50-5.75/bu delivered, feed is looking like a viable option. Durum, on the other side, is seeing some upside. If you’re in Southeast Saskatchewan $7.00/bu FOB is achievable on a milling quality. If $7 is your mark, but you’re not in the Southeast, try out a target with your merchant.
The Canadian bean crop has had some conflicting reports. Some are favorable for Ontario, but like reports out of Manitoba, there are large differences in crop development. The recent rains in western Canada may be too late to help the dry bean crop. Analysts predict the yield could come in below the 5-year average, leaving tonnage 9% less than last year. The US bean crop has stabilized, export demand remains slow and the environment is likely to continue this way unless an agreement is reached in US – China trade. The Mexican bean crop is behind as far as seeding goes and if there is a reduction in final seeded area, this could result in more demand for Canadian and US beans, mainly pinto and black beans. Prices will vary on the type of bean, so call our office with what you have.
Flax development is delayed as per the latest Sask Ag report, but analysts are still predicting above average yields. Ending stocks for 2019/20 are forecasted to be slightly below last year due to tight carry-over form 2018/19. Chinese inventories are built up, so we can expect prices to remain sideways for the interim. Milling flax prices are sitting around $12.25-$12.50/bu. Yellow flax prices remain around $13.00/bu picked up. The Black Sea region is still a mystery with the 2019 flax potential confirmations still under wrap. If the Black Sea region yields poor, then we may see some upside in prices, for now the market will remain flat.
Well it looks like we survived early frost warnings with little to no harm across the prairies. The next challenge we must face is this rain that seems to keep slowing us down on the daily. We have not heard much for harvest reports on oats as most remains in the field, trying to mature. Crops being quite late this year in some areas doesn’t bode well with rain/frost either. Right now, prices are holding firm and may continue too if the crop doesn’t make it in the bin. Old crop feed oats that are good and heavy range between $2.70-2.90/bu FOB farm in value. Milling oat markets hover in the $3.75/bu delivered to plant ballpark and growers are encouraged to talk with a merchant about a picked-up price. New crop bids around are around $3.65/bu delivered on milling quality, while feed oats are being bid at $2.70/bu FOB farm in certain locations.
Lentil harvest is underway with some areas making good progress, while others struggle to make any headway at all. The Saskatchewan Crop report has 25% of lentils harvested, that is 50% behind from this time last year. With harvest progress being delayed we are seeing large green lentil and small green lentil prices stabilize, this is mostly due to buyers becoming concerned that later combined crops may have quality issues. Red lentils are still facing major market and harvest pressure. Samples that have been submitted to office to date seem to be of #2 or better quality; most of these were harvested before last week. We have not seen many red samples yet. Large green lentils are trading at 20 cents picked up in the yard, small greens at 16 cents picked up and red lentil pricing has been very quiet and hard to nail down. Estimated value is around 16 cents picked up. Finding prices on US origin lentils is also getting tough. If you’re looking to trade red lentils and US origin grain, target pricing is likely the best option.
The story on canola continues to be the same this week with very little happening. Lower expected production this year doesn’t seem to be making much headway against trade restrictions with China. Wet conditions in much of the province has delayed the canola harvest and potential for frost becomes more likely every day. This leaves big question marks on what the quality of this year’s canola will look like moving forward. Local bids continue to range between $9.50-$9.75/bu delivered in for a quicker movement with deferred options available at and above $10/bu delivered in.
The market hasn’t reacted to strongly to last week’s StatsCan report on mustard. The modest 10% reduction in total supply compared to last year has not disrupted the market either way. There could be a slight tightening of stocks as time goes on, but nothing to move the market yet. We will see how this plays out regarding price as we get into fall. We are getting a few yield reports on mustard now in the southwest part of the province, but still seems a little behind schedule due to drought and the very slow start. Rain showers over the past few days continue, which certainly has not helped. Brown mustard prices still might be considered at 29-30c/lb FOB range, with spot yellow mustard bids remaining at the 36c/lb range FOB. Oriental mustard again stays at the 23c/lb FOB range for old crop. Already…. even though its early, please inquire about seed delivered to the yard for next season.
Chickpea markets are seeing some action but not when it comes to #2 or even #3 quality. Feed and sample grade have been trading in the $0.11-$0.13/lb range and there is appetite for more at these levels. Commercial trade for #2 or better is still very quiet. Typically, there will be some business done during or after the Canadian Specialty Crop Association conference every year, but with the delays in harvest, quality concerns and supply and demand figures being what they are, everything remains flatlined. Desi chickpeas are unchanged as well. If chickpeas are a commodity you want to get off the farm first this year, offers are going to be your best bet.
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