Despite expectations for tight Canadian flax supplies heading into the 2024/25 crop year, prices remain steady, hovering around $16-$16.50/bu FOB farm, contingent on location. This stability seems to reflect trade expectations of a larger flax crop out of Russia compared to last year, which should result in sufficient supplies for China. However, with the impending tariff on Russian flax heading into Europe, it could provide a window of opportunity for North American flax to fill that gap. Other news on the world stage this week revolves around the Canadian government’s decision to impose tariffs on Chinese EV’s. This has already prompted an anti-dumping probe into canola imports, but buyers have expressed concern on the possible effects on flax markets as well.

Canaryseed prices are holding steady at 34-35 cents/lb picked up, with some opportunities for quick movement available for those with harvested or stored supplies. As Canadian canaryseed supplies are expected to increase for the 2024/25 crop year, additional export opportunities will be crucial to maintaining price support. Weather conditions in Argentina could also play a role in aligning prices and is something to keep an eye on. With lower millet acres seeded in the US, there may be opportunities to fill market gaps, although the US is still working through its larger 2023 crop. Given current values, it might make sense to prioritize moving canary seed over other commodities.

This week, rumors resurfaced about a potential 50% tariff reduction in India, driven by rising domestic green pea prices. As a result, green pea bids have strengthened to $14/bu picked up for September-October movement ($10/bu USD) with an abundance of demand seen from multiple purchasers. We’ve also heard reports that the Philippines are in the market to purchase green peas, which is also providing market support, albeit to a lesser extent. Yellow pea prices, however, remain unchanged at around $10/bu delivered or $9.00-$9.50/bu FOB farm pending location. Maple peas have seen increased interest, particularly for product grown from Acer variety, which are now seeing bids back up to $20/bu FOB farm. Other varieties are generally sitting around $17/bu FOB. If you have a target price in mind, it’s a good time to let your merchant know, as offers are receiving more attention this week.

The mustard market remains stagnant as more growers begin harvesting in September. Yield reports are coming in, showing significant variation depending on moisture levels and seeding timelines. The general trend is that earlier-seeded crops fared better, as the intense July heat was harsh on later-flowering mustard. Yellow mustard prices are holding steady around $0.40-$0.43/lb pending shipping window, though it’s important to check daily for updates. Oriental and brown mustard bids remain flat at $0.30-$0.31/lb picked up on the farm. If you’re looking to create bin space or generate cash flow, consider reaching out with any offers, and we’ll work to get a trade done for you.

Wheat prices have seen a slight uptick over the past week, supported by stronger corn and soybean markets. However, wheat values are still relatively low, having lost significant ground over the past few months. Current feed wheat bids are in the range of $5.75 to $6.00/bu FOB, with higher values seen closer to feedlot alley in Alberta. For those willing to price out into the new year, there may be a small premium for storing wheat into the first quarter of 2025. Light weight issues are prevalent, particularly in the southern parts of the province, as feed markets look for wheat at 58lbs or heavier, with discounts applying to lower weights. Milling wheat prices vary widely, with some buyers offering mid $6/bu while others entertain offers in the mid $7s or better. Durum prices remain steady at around $8.50/bu, with potential for slightly better prices in certain areas.

Lentil prices remain strong as harvest progresses. As of the week of August 20-26, Saskatchewan Crop Reporting indicated that 72% of the lentil harvest was complete, and with favorable weather, this week’s report is expected to show closer to 85% completion. Buyers are particularly interested in green lentils, with large greens trading as high as 50 cents/lb FOB farm, small greens at 45 cents/lb, medium greens at 46 cents/lb (32-33 cents/lb USD) and red lentils are trading at 29 cents/lb FOB. The market for French green and Beluga (black) lentils remain quiet, with little buyer interest at the moment, but the odd opportunity does pop up, so keep in touch with your merchant. Yield reports from growers show a wide range, varying not just from district to district but even from field to field. Final yield numbers will be interesting to see given the inconsistency, but current estimates suggest that overall lentil yields may average between 15-20 bushels per acre.

The oat market continues to be quiet this week, with bids ranging from $3.75 to $4.25/bu delivered for fall movement. Pricing is generally better closer to the Manitoba border, particularly in the southeast corner of Saskatchewan. New year bids are holding around $4.50/bu delivered. With little excitement in the market at the moment, it’s a good idea to have your oats weighed and graded so you know what you’re working with, especially if prices improve. However, don’t expect a significant price increase in the near future due to ongoing harvest pressure.

Canola is once again facing pressure, this time from the Chinese government, which has announced an anti-dumping investigation into Canadian canola imports. This development follows Canada’s recent imposition of a 100% tariff on Chinese electric vehicle imports. This is not the first time China has targeted Canadian canola, with similar restrictions lasting three years starting in 2019. While the full impact and duration of this investigation remain unclear, the market has responded with canola prices dropping over the past two days. China is Canada’s top canola customer by a significant margin, but this situation might open up opportunities for other markets, such as the EU and Japan, to step in as stronger customers. The potential impact on Australian canola imports, which have also been restricted due to blackleg disease, is another factor to watch. With many growers starting to harvest their canola, now is a good time to reach out to your merchant for on-farm bids if you’re considering making sales this fall.

Soybean futures have seen an upward trend recently, supported by new export business and speculator short covering. Local soybean bids are currently in the $10.50 to $11.00/bu range FOB farm. There is potential for dry bean demand to emerge from Mexico again this year, with various classes of beans fetching prices between 51¢ and 55¢ per pound delivered. However, export demand for faba beans remains quiet, largely due to sufficient production in Australia. Feed-quality fabas are trading around $8.00/bu FOB farm.

Early forecasts place Canadian barley production at 7.4 million metric tons (MMT), which might be optimistic given recent trends. While this figure represents a three-year decrease, total supply must also consider an anticipated carry-in of 3.5-4.0 MMT, bringing the combined total supply to approximately 11 MMT. Strong global barley trade could help mitigate the impact of this substantial domestic supply. With Australia potentially unable to meet the needs of importing nations, Canada might see increased demand for its barley. Local feed barley bids are currently in the $4.00-$4.50/bu range picked up, while malt barley bids, which are somewhat variety-specific, range from $5.15 to $5.50/bu delivered.

The chickpea market has seen a slight uptick this week, driven by lower-than-expected production estimates from Russia and India’s highest import volumes since 2019. There’s speculation about a potential tender from India in mid-September, though nothing is confirmed yet. Bids for #2 Kabuli chickpeas range from $0.39/lb for older production to $0.42/lb for this year’s crop. These bids typically assume a standard mix of a maximum of 10% 7mm and a minimum of 20% 9mm caliber. Buyers are particularly interested in large-caliber chickpeas, specifically those with 30-40% 9mm and under 10% 7mm in the sample. If your product meets these criteria, you could see an increase of a penny or two in your bid. With the Canadian harvest still about two weeks from completion and a clearer picture of the year’s production about four weeks away, it’s a good time to get your samples tested. Knowing your product well will help you capitalize on the right marketing opportunities when they arise.

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.