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Rayglen Market Comments – September 5, 2018

The canary seed market has picked up a bit of steam with buyers showing prices around 22.5 c/lb delivered.  StatsCan has the acres pegged at 212,100. If this is correct, there will be a shortage in production if the yields remain similar to last year – around 30 bushels per acre. The annual usage of canary seed is around 165,000 MT. If this current data holds true, there will only be 125,800 MT available from this year’s crop. This is not taking into consideration the seemingly always underestimated stored product but could be enough influence to see a price climb. As of last week, there was only 12% of canary seed harvested and yields estimated to be around 22 bushels per acre.

The feed wheat market is a little calmer this week after it had run up to $6.00/bu FOB farm in many areas of the province. Feedlot Alley in Lethbridge bids slipped some and that has slowed the market down this week. For the most part bids seem to be closer to $5.60- $5.70 a bushel picked up at the yard. If you’d like to try and push the market for a little higher number, we are taking and showing firm targets to buyers, which has had some success. Milling wheat bids have firmed up back over $7.00/bu delivered to elevator for CWRS with 13.5 plus protein. Durum bids are hovering in the $6.50 to maybe $6.70 range for a #1 quality around the province as we speak.

The pea market is still experiencing some seasonal weakness as harvest is racing ahead. Green peas saw some strength last week with offers trading at $8-8.25/bu picked up. This week, bids have pulled back slightly, but $8/bu picked up might still be possible in some areas. Yellow peas are seeing bids at $6/bu picked up working in the south east and south central. We also have a $6.50/bu delivered plant bid for the North East. The protein market for yellow peas is still going strong – with bids at $6.50 FOB on dry matter protein levels testing 24%. India is still drawing a lot of attention on whether they will remove any trading restrictions or tariffs, however we aren’t as optimistic anymore.

Flax prices haven’t seen many changes over the last several months and this week is no different.  #1 flax is $12.75/bu delivered to plant while milling quality flax is indicating similar values picked up in the yard for further out movement. The StatsCan report from last week has trimmed the seeded area estimate, but estimated yield is up. These combined should not change the outlook for a tight supply in 2018/19. Since 2011, the Black Sea region has emerged as a major competitor, which has taken out any volatile swings in flax pricing caused from Canadian supply or the lack there of. So, while Canadian flax prices are not likely to see extreme highs, there should be some room for some upside price potential and getting offers to your Rayglen merchant is a good start to keep on top of this market.

Feed barley has softened a bit this week. Harvest pressure has kicked in and buyers are starting to get bought up for quick movement. September looks to be almost filled, so if you are looking to get rid of some product really quick, call your merchant to get that contracted. Prices are still strong for October- December movement with bids around $4.20-4.70/bu FOB farm depending on freight. Remember offers are a great way to move grain especially in a market where things seem to be all over week to week, so talk with your merchant about posting one.

Chickpea markets remain relatively unchanged over the last 7 days. The start to harvest has seemed to slow as growers are waiting for either desiccants to take hold or crops to be ready au natural. Progress is about 15-20% complete. The demand for green and low quality has peaked interest of some of our buyers. Perhaps with reports of average quality there could be a concern in supply for the pet food market, so they may be trying to mitigate any potential shortage in the nearby? Just a thought. A little pop in bids this week, #2 Orion/Leaders at 24c/lb FOB for 9/10mm and 20c/lb for smaller sizes and varieties. Feed values somewhere between 10-11c/lb FOB. All bids are location dependant.

Lentil markets remain quite again this week. Oversea markets remain disinterested in buying Canadian product. Rumblings out of India, is that the trade doesn’t want to pay minimum support price on Indian grown pulses as they are starting to see cheaper prices over seas. Due to India trade rules the local buyer must pay MSP or face criminal charges. Does this mean prices go up? Likely not, it just means that they are seeing cheap product come to market and would rather buy at those levels. This news is nothing more than information but, could be something to keep an eye on. As we are still seeing more supply than demand, hence the lower prices being shown to the market. Local pricing remains the same as last week. Reds are trading at 16c delivered, Large green lentils #1 21c, X2 20c, #2 18c FOB farm, small greens not much happening – call for pricing.

Soybean production in Canada is poised to retreat 9% to 7.0 million tonnes according to the most recent Stats Can report. Soybean futures have tailed off based on forecasts of a large US harvest and listless demand. Local bids of $10.50/bu picked up are currently attainable. Faba bean export demand is building largely due to drought conditions in Australia. Bids for #2 large seeded zero tannin fabas is running as high as $8.75/bu delivered. Dry field bean prices remain buoyant with buyers looking for most varieties. Call the office for more info.

Mustard remains range bound this week as harvest continues. Yields continue to be reported average at best, as the dry weather this summer continues to take its toll on yields this year. Prices are still holding though, so far, with brown at 30 to 32c/lb, yellow at 33 to 34c/lb and oriental forge in the 28c/lb range, all depending on variety and movement. All of these bids are FOB farm on a #1 quality. Also remember if you have production contract, make sure your sending your pre-ship sample off to buyers so they can get them graded. Call your merchant if you need an address for shipping that sample.

No new news to report from the oats market this week and values hold steady on both milling and feed. Some concerns have come from low bushel weights being reported in some of the drier areas, but overall, the crop has been coming off in good shape. Milling oat prices are trading in the $2.50-$2.75/bu picked up in the yard range with movement being pushed out quite a way. Highest values are in the southeast corner and bids tend to get lower the further northwest you go. Heavy and dry feed oats are maintaining bids around that $2.00-$2.20/bu picked up in the yard. That being said, if you have any lower quality oats give us a call and we will try to find a home for them.

Canola markets have perked up a bit since last week, but not as much as some would have thought after StatsCan dropped yield estimates on this year’s crop. Despite the estimated drop, markets remained fairly stable with nearby futures still sitting in the mid $490’s per MT. This suggests there is little concern over the available of product. Backing this news up are unchanged and, in some cases, wider basis levels. For the most part, producers can expect a $20-30/MT under basis when delivering into plant. That pegs bids at roughly $10.65/bu delivered. Keep in mind that we are able to provide freight to the plant as well for those who would prefer an FOB bid. Call for a firm price picked up in your yard today!

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.