Soybean futures are under some pressure due to US crop condition scores and reduced Chinese imports. US soybean crop is currently rated at 57% good to excellent, with much of the critical crop development phase behind us. Chinese soybean imports are running 25% behind last year due to lower livestock production and weak crush margins. Local bids are location dependent and range from $16.75-$17.25/bu FOB farm. The market is expecting lower new crop dry bean supplies both north and south of the border due to lower planted acres. Typical harvest delivery pressure is affecting local bids, but tighter supplies are anticipated to prop up that market in the longer term. Canadian faba crop volume and grading pattern will reveal itself over the coming months. At this point, lower volume and quality are expected due a sharp drop in planted acres coupled with a later planted crop. Aussie faba production is expected to drop from last year’s levels, but still sit above the 10-year production average. Export faba bids are in the range of $11.00-$11.50/bu FOB and feed quality values are near $9.50-10.00/bu FOB farm location dependent.
Wheat markets show signs of life this morning after Russian President Vladimir Putin spoke to the press. Futures values are showing double digit gains after Putin suggested that export corridors were not reducing food costs as intended, but instead were benefiting their enemies. We’re sure much uncertainty and/or worry lingers around those remarks, but according to reports, Ukraine is still shipping product safely under the protection of the UN and Turkey. Bids today on #1 CWRS hover around $11/bu delivered plant with CWRW and CPS showing roughly 50-cent and 75-cent lower bids respectively. Values on all three fluctuate a few pennies pending location and delivery window. Feed wheat bids remain around $9/bu with demand and actual trade light this week, but if you have product you’re looking to move, please don’t hesitate to reach out.
Chickpea harvest is underway, and buyers are keeping a close on eye on quality and yields. We are receiving more of the typical calls from growers on where values sit today, but see little to no contracting happening, suggesting growers are bullish. Seems everyone is playing a game of chicken with chickpeas, and no one wants to flinch first. Global markets remain steady with strong exports out of supplying countries. Canadian supply demand is still relatively slow with a few outliers looking to fill positions. Current bid is $0.49-$0.50/lb FOB farm for #2 Kabulis and freight sensitive. Feed/sample values maintain tone at $0.30/lb.
Pea harvest has been trucking along with mainly favourable harvest conditions, but some concerns have been brought up suggesting higher temperatures are causing more splitting. Ukraine’s pea harvest has been reduced; however, Russia’s is expected to be quite large, and reports show they have been exporting. As mentioned before, Europe is going to need a feed supply due to their corn crop failure, but Canadian product is still priced too high to meet those needs at the moment, so for now we play the waiting game. Current bids on yellow peas are indicated at $11.00 – 11.50/bu picked up with the latter getting tough to find. Green peas are priced around $11.00/bu and maple peas remain quoted at $13.00/bu, both picked up on farm and in light trade.
Oat markets remain a topic of little discussion throughout the buy side over the last couple weeks. We continue to hear above average, to down right “bumper” yield reports as harvest progresses and we suspect the price is going to reflect on those numbers. Bids for a #2 CW are floating around that $4.00 – $4.50/bu range pending location this week, but these do not appear to be deep bids. Feed is not far behind sitting in that $3.00/bu range. We assume buyers are also hearing some of these yield reports and are not pushing to lock in major tonnage given the overall supply that appears to be coming our way. If you are on the fence, but are considering a sale, pushing product into these values now is suggested as these prices will likely continue to drop off in the coming days or weeks. Stronger values may be seen for push shipping windows into the new year, so be sure to explore those options if movement isn’t a necessity at this point.
Barley continues to capture some great pricing in feed and in some cases malt markets. Although feed barley pricing has fallen off a bit from last seasons highs, historically the value it brings is still good, if not great. If you are looking for prompt movement, bids range around $6.00/bu. If you able to sit on it for a month or two, values perk up quite a bit, now sitting around $7.00-$7.50/bu. Finally, if movement isn’t a concern, growers willing to take Jan – Mar delivery time frames should call the office to discuss their options as there is potential for some better pricing opportunities. All bids are area dependent and quoted as FOB farm. Maltsters are quieter this week compared to only a short while ago, but the odd opportunity is popping up. Desired buyer shipment seems to be early – mid 2023, and if this sounds like it fits your needs, get your samples into the office so we can have them reviewed. If you are looking for anything above market on either feed or malt, we highly suggest calling in and placing a firm target. Let us do the work for you.
Flax movement has been slow to start the new crop year. Prices are hit and miss around $22.00/bu picked up this week and demand remains subdued. The slow start likely reflects softer demand coming from overseas and the US and although Canadian supplies were tight with little to no carry-over, the overseas market was not experiencing any shortfall in supply. Russian flax into China has been well established and it will become more difficult for Canadian flax to regain some of that market share. The spread between European and domestic on farm flax values are now within a reasonable range and the hopes are that this could help renew demand. This is good news, but we must keep in mind that prices are likely to remain sideways or possibly drift lower at this point to continue to align with European needs.
The canary market values have slipped off a little for the nearby as sales hit the books this week. Current bids to move canary prompt have slipped down to $0.39/lb for many buyers with bids around $0.40/lb for shipment pushed out to Christmas or beyond. The stocks seem to be very tight as we move into the new crop, but we are still being shown product that is carryover from previous years in the recent weeks, so there still seems to be hidden stock. Expectations are that this year’s crop will not be a big yielder as large amounts of canary are grown in some of the driest areas of the province, but later harvested crop further east in Sask should bolster the yields. Millet stocks in US look tight, so that coupled with low carryover and weaker crop should keep prices supported throughout the crop year once again.
Mustard prices remain very strong for another week and seem to be shrugging off any harvest pressure at this point. That said, as the pipeline fills and contracted mustard is picked up, we may perhaps see some slip in prices as immediate needs are filled, but so far, solid pricing remains for all types. This week we see grower offers on yellow mustard creep above the $1 mark with trades taking place in many instances depending on your movement needs. Bids for September/ October shipment show brown mustard sitting in the mid 90 cents/lb range, while oriental continues strong at the $1/lb mark again this week. If you have freshly harvested mustard, contracted or not, call us to arrange grading or to obtain a sample address and get them submitted as soon as possible as shipping has been quick. It’s important to call us and discuss a marketing plan to book your un-contracted mustard as well to obtain maximum values and/or suit your needs.
Canola is taking a beating in the market again with futures falling under $800/mt for November. Overall, pricing has decreased steadily since the spike in May when bids topped out at $1225/mt range. Still, the market continues to see historically strong bids even with harvest pressure, as the bulk of the canola crop is set to be pulled in over the next couple of weeks, presuming the weather continues to hold. Buyer bids range around $17.65/bu in west SK with southeastern SK bids bottoming out at $16.20/bu at time of writing for Sept/Oct delivery.
Lentil markets seem to be stable for another week with specialty lentils gaining more interest than traditional lentils. Large green lentils have not changed much from last week with #2 quality trading in that 43-44 cent/lb range FOB farm. Small greens show values around 39-40 cents this week, but targets at 41 may be looked at. Buyers seem to be looking for green lentils quite consistently, but not willing to push values much higher, suggesting the market has found a comfortable position at this point. Red lentils are trading between 30 & 31 cents FOB farm depending on location and buyer, with the latter getting tough to come by as some buyers start to fade bids slightly this week. Reds are continuing to see pressure from cheaper foreign sales and supply from around the world. As mentioned above, specialty markets such as French green lentils are showing strength and strong demand. Bids are being shown around 65-70 cents on French greens today, but sellers may be able to push this market and additional cent or two by having firm targets set. If you have any of these products in the bin, you may want to consider selling a percentage of your production at these levels.
Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.