Barley markets continue to fall back this week on the anticipation of corn moving up from the states. Current feed market is trading anywhere from $7.50 – $8.00/bu FOB farm depending on location and delivery time frame. We don’t suspect these numbers to stay relevant much longer though, as everyday grows closer to the import of corn into Canada. If you are sitting with some barley in the bin, now is the time to consider selling and hopefully still hit the some of the highs seen in the feed market. Firm offers are still being looked at but seem to be on a day-to-day basis. There has not been much for news surrounding the malt market recently, but we believe maltsters may just sit back for a little while longer to try and get a handle on this year’s availability. Anything that was left standing after the last few rains may be subject to quality issues, ultimately downgrading product from malt spec. As always, feel free to post a target to try and stir things up. Even though the price for feed has slowly started to decline over the last week, on farm values are still very aggressive.
The feed wheat market has slipped a bit over the past week with some buyers now showing indications around $9.00-$9.50/bu FOB farm. That said, we still have a hand full of purchasers supporting values around 10.00/bu FOB, pending location, for September/October movement. This gap in bids is concerning and leaves us wondering if those still buying at the top end are due for a negative price correction. It might be a good time to hedge your bets and get some feed wheat sold in anticipation of a softer market to come. Good quality milling wheat trades between $10.00 to $10.75/bu, delivered to plant, on a 13.5% protein min. spec. The durum market remains quite strong with product trading at $22.00/bu FOB farm in SE Saskatchewan and around $21.00/bu FOB as you move North. If these prices are not where you would like to sell at, we suggest using firm targets to try and capture your desired value.
A slower start after the long weekend in the pea market as both yellow and green peas soften. This suggests that buyers were able to get the coverage that they needed for the short term and now slow down the aggressive demand side. Yellow peas have moved down to an average bid of about $15/bu FOB, while buyers post bids around $16/bu for greens. Maple peas still seem to have some strength and $20/bu or slightly higher on offer may still be available. There may still be an opportunity for peas to find strength again, but for the immediate term, buyers seem to be stepping back. If you have a target price in mind, let your merchant know so they can stay relevant if/when markets perk back up. Although it is early, seed inquires have started and we will have supply available if you are looking to get into a new variety or need to replenish on farm stock.
It’s no surprise, but Chickpea markets maintain their tempo for another week. Harvest is currently underway with Sask Ag reporting 64% of the crop still standing in the field. Talk of smaller caliber is still present but we have yet to see an abundance of harvest samples roll into the office to confirm this. US buyers have been very aggressive in North American markets and have set the watermark thus far for marketing. US Bids range from $0.45-$0.50/lb USD or $0.58-$0.65/lb CAD. The Canadian market has seen trades at $0.60/lb, but grower hesitancy and bullish mindset has yet to open the floodgates. There is a lot of harvest left and time to determine what is actually in the field so “wait and see” is the general marketing strategy despite a few outliers.
Looking back over last year, just under 160,000 tonnes of canary was exported, similar to the previous year, but above the 5-year average of 153,000 tonnes. With low stock numbers and a projected smaller bushel amount, pricing should hold strong moving forward and we continue to see just that. Pricing has inched up another cent to settle in comfortably at $0.55/lb picked up on the farm. One possible stumbling block though could be the downward shift in millet pricing in the US. With canary prices going up, will birdseed packers rejig the bird feed “recipe” to minimize the reliance on canary?
Canola futures are exactly sideways from last week after an up and down week of trading. Canola oil is currently being seen as an expensive option compared to other oilseeds as soyoil has been taking some losses lately. Production concerns across western Canada as well as some weakness in the Canadian dollar are supporting current canola bids. November futures sit at $882/MT at time of writing, continuing to reflect the strong local prices we have been seeing over the past few months. Time will tell what Canada’s total production ends up at but keeping an eye out for strong local opportunities and taking advantage of them is good business at these price levels.
Lentil bids continue to lose traction this week, likely due to recent news of the Indian government deciding to remove import tariffs on product from the Black Sea region. With India looking to the Black Sea for lentils, this could imply they are seeking a cheaper supply. Short term, this could be viewed as bearish, but the upside to this news, for the long-term, may be that world supplies are tighter than thought. This could mean that India becomes a bigger importer of local supply down the line. Prices are weakening but remain strong for this time of year. Red lentils are still trading between 47-49 cents/lb FOB farm. Large green lentils are now bid between 60-63 cents/lb FOB farm, with a slight chance of targets triggering higher. Small green lentils now trade at 58-60 cents FOB farm. Buyers are also still aggressively looking for French green and Beluga lentils and we urge growers to call and discuss their options.
Harvest reports continue to be all over the map regarding oats. Unsurprisingly, vast differences in yields pour in from brutally hit areas, to areas that caught some moisture. Overall, yield averages are expected to be down this year and with that, oats have been trading strong and sideways for the most part. Good #2 oats continue to trade in the mid $5 dollar range picked up in the yard or about $6 dollars per bushel delivered to plant. If movement gets stretched into the new year, we have seen the occasional bid perk up to $6.25 delivered range and we suggest growers continue to use firm targets to capture market highs. Even light and/or feed oats continue to secure strong values with indications around the $5 mark FOB farm. Call us with any available product on farm. Be sure to have weights and other specs on hand so we can effectively market your product and find you the best value.
Mustard prices remain at very strong levels through the past week. Recent bids on yellow have pushed up to 70 cents/lb in a few locations, brown varieties have buyers showing interest at 55 cents/lb picked up and the oriental market has pushed to around 40 cents without the usual concern on variety that we often see. These indications are based on #1 quality with varying delivery periods, but for the most part, moving quick. Latest projections put the provincial average for Sask. mustard just over 10bu/ac for the year, so supply is very tight with next to no carryover. We have a few buyers with interest in seeing firm targets over posted prices as long as they have a little time to work them into the overseas market. So, if you have a target price in mind, let your merchant know and we can put out a firm target to try and catch that premium. Obviously, no one’s bins are stocked full of mustard, but at these levels it’s not a terrible plan to make a move on some sales while the iron is hot.
Flax prices remain strong this week with prices pushing over $30/bu picked up. This year we can expect exports on flax to key destinations to be cut, as it will be no surprise that we have a lower-than-average supply. Reports in the Black Sea region also suggest that their level of exports will decline. There is no doubt these record high prices indicate there is concerns with the 2021 crop: not just in North America but also overseas. Once flax harvest is well underway and farmer selling commences, this price rally could pause, but in the meantime, if you have your flax off, give us a call for a picked-up price in your area.
Soybean futures oscillated in a narrow band today settling up slightly. This coming Friday’s USDA WASDE report has some traders levelling positions on what might be, a bean crop downgrade. Recent damage to the Gulf port hangs over the market and potentially threatens the export capacity on the brink of peak season. We are still early to be calling any finite production numbers as only 20% of the US crop is at the dropping leaves maturity phase. Local bids remain well supported near $17.00/bu FOB farm with prompt shipping. North American dry bean production will be markedly down year over year. Around the globe, Mexican bean production will be lower and Argentinian production is expected to be up. North American bids being led firmer by US values founded on the production volume decline. UK faba bean crop is expected to yield well. That said, local demand is likely to consume production and limit participation in export markets. A small amount of new crop has been harvested yet with bids hovering around $10.50/bu-$11.00/bu delivered.
Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.