Faba beans maintain steady export pace, with the US being the dominant buyer of Canadian product. Local bids hover around $9.00/bu picked up and are likely to stay there for the near future. This is because values are generally set by Australia, where crops are looking favorable, preventing the market from shifting drastically upward. If we do see a bump in bids, that support will have to come from the feed market. Despite a smaller US and Canadian crop, export demand is likely to stay subdued as Mexican and South American crops play a bigger factor. For those with soybeans in the bins, prices remain sideways, with most buyers looking for firm offers. Please call the office to discuss soybean sales.
Flax harvest is yet to hit full swing, leaving uncertainty around production numbers. However, production in other key markets may offset lower Canadian yields as conditions in Russia are still favorable. Current bids remain strong and range anywhere from $22-$24.00/bu depending on movement. There is some talk that the price could dip slightly if the inventory being held at the Chinese border from the Black Sea region is off loaded at its destination, but with Covid and new variants, the Chinese border remains closed 80% of the time from Russia. The other big unknown factor in the 2021 outlook is the crop produced in China. If their crop has recovered from last year, it could mean a smaller import program.
The feed wheat market continues to be a bull with values nearing and, in some cases, beating milling bids. Recent trades have taken place in the $10.00 – $10.50/bu range, at the bin for August/September movement, with more than a handful of buyers willing to explore these prices. The milling wheat market continues strong as well with bids just over $11/bu delivered in many cases. Milling durum continues its steady pace as well, but firm values are a bit trickier to track down. Rumors of $18/bu delivered plant have risen in Southern Saskatchewan and we suspect there may be interest in actually purchasing these values. This poses a great opportunity for growers to use the firm target system to secure top end bids. So far this year, the firm offer system has been the most effective marketing tool.
The mustard market has seen very little change as we progress into the week. Buyers are still looking for product and are bidding aggressively to get it. Prompt movement options are also available, especially for brown mustard in the bin and ready to ship. Yellow mustard is priced at 60 cents/lb, brown mustard at 50 cents and oriental indicated at 40 cents, all picked up for a #1 quality. Buyers are also still interested in seeing firm offers on all types of mustard, if you have a target price in mind. Moving internationally, we have seen Russian mustard values turn higher, which may be a sign of a poorer harvest abroad. This may add more uneasiness to the market in the near future.
The barley market remains to be a bit of a roller coaster ride, but not one you need to psych yourself up for before getting on. Values seem to be changing daily, but not fluctuating much further than 0.10 – 0.15/bu from $8.00. As always, barley figures are freight and destination sensitive, which makes up most of these fluctuations. We are already starting to see the delivery period being pushed out and most sales now include a September – October delivery period, with the odd trade pushed out until November. If you are in need of cash flow, it’s highly suggested to lock in some product now, not only because delivery windows are being pushed out, but also because bids are starting to see discounts for winter shipments. It is tricky to pinpoint the highs and lows of commodity markets right now and many are left wondering: Is there room for barley to go up? Possibly, but as corn moves up from the USA, demand for feed barley could soften, ultimately dragging bids lower. If that $8.00/bu range isn’t screaming at you, now is the time to call in and post a firm offer. If it trades, great! If not, then at least you know you didn’t leave money on the table.
Most of the canary seed seeded this year has yet to be combined and we are already seeing a dramatic shift in prices. Bids move up in waves, to values we haven’t experienced in the past fifteen years. Expectations of a small crop in Western Canada, as well as lower ending stocks coming into this year, have bids for canary seed up to 47 cents/lb FOB farm. Concerns of filling our usual export demand are present in the industry and we will have to wait and see how this plays out moving forward. As always, if you have a price in mind a bit above the current market be sure to give us a call to put in a firm target and get multiple buyers’ eyes on it.
Canola markets see more gains this week with November futures hovering at $913/MT vs $871/MT at this time last week. The steady increase in Canola markets is believed to be driven by a possible production number of 15-17 mil. vs the initially anticipated 20mil. StatsCan is schedule to issue details of the crop Aug 30th from survey details. It is the general consensus that we are still in a bull market and that futures are undervalued considering the tight balances. In other news, SaskCanola and the SK Ministry of Ag. are conducting free testing for the first 200 growers for blackleg race ID testing through Discovery Seed Labs in Saskatoon.
The chickpea market is strong, yet quiet at the same time as chickpea harvest has not reached full swing. That said, prices have been gaining strength with buyers showing a range in bids on large Kabulis from 40 to 45 cents delivered for #2 quality. For those who do have product in the bin, the shipping timeline is relatively quick, currently quoted as Sept./Oct. Chickpea supply is expected to be reduced this year due to poor harvest yields, which will eat up much of the carryover still in bins from last year’s production that did not get sold due to weak demand and prices. Poor, early reports from US crops are helping prices a bit this week and with no sellers lined up in Canada to sell, it should have some support for the time being.
The pea market continues on a tear this week. Green peas have been trading up to $16.00/bu FOB farm for movement out to December with options for earlier shipment and slightly discounted values ($15-15.50/bu). Yellow peas have been trading at and around the $15.00/bu mark also for Sept./October. Again, faster movement on yellows at a slightly lower price would be an option as well. The maple pea market has shot up suddenly and has been trading around $15.00/bu to $16.00/bu FOB this week. This is a remarkable jump for such a short period of time. Bids do remain variety specific, but for the most part all but Liscard varieties are accepted. If you are looking for a certain price or movement period, please call your Rayglen merchant to put in a target. This seems to be a good strategy with current market conditions.
The heat has taken a real toll on crops this year, with oats not being an exception. As quality scales back and looks to be a concern for most places, prices remain strong. Milling oats are trading at $5.50/bu delivered in with feed holding down $3.50 – $4.00/bu picked up on the farm. That being said, if you have a firm target in mind let your Rayglen merchant know as buyers don’t want to lose out on product. Weight will more than likely be an issue so knowing what you are working with when it comes to marketing product will be beneficial.
Lentil markets continue to strengthen as harvest is already over 30% complete and yield reports are showing less than average numbers. Large green lentils have jumped up to 55 cents/lb FOB farm for #2 or better quality. Small green lentils are now trading at 50 cents on farm for shipment as early as the end of August. While reds are not moving up as quickly, values are creeping up and strong. Product is being bid in the 40-43 cent range with little grower uptake at this point. Buyers seem to be hungry for this product with most providing movement before the end of October, if not sooner. Prices still have some distance to go to hit the highs of 2015/16, but they are well on their way to match if not surpass those figures.
Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.