Chickpea prices remain sideways this week. StatsCan planting intentions report will be released on Friday. The 2018 chickpea crop has the potential to expand substantially. Mexican chickpea production was about a third harvested at the end of March and yields were coming in above average, which would peg the 2018/19 crop 78% higher from last year due to the larger seeded area. Mexican chickpea prices have already backed off since February along with India’s prices. This trend is likely to continue with competition in export markets. Desi prices in India are also seeing some pressure from the large rabi crop that was just harvested. There could be further trade restrictions by the Indian government if prices continue to decline. North American production will also weigh on the bids and further price declines are more likely. We still have some options for new crop to take some of that risk off the table. Talk to your Rayglen merchant if you are growing any chickpeas.
Just out this morning, India has put out more restrictions on yellow peas. Imports on yellow peas will be limited to a maximum of 100,000 metric tonnes through June 30th. According to a STAT report, this total includes cargo, which has arrived in India after April 1st and shipments backed by irrevocable commercial letter of credit and advance payment through the banking channel before April 25th. There has been concerns with India this past year over the possibility of increased duties/ restrictions and here they are. This will primarily affect France, but will likely have some trickledown effect to our markets as well. Last year France exported 41,000MT of peas to India from April to June. Pricing on green peas has been trading around the $9.00 delivered range this week, while new crop is trading around $8.50 delivered for Sept/Dec. Depending on area, $7.25 FOB the farm has traded on spot yellow peas. If you outside the favorable freight areas, you are probably looking at $6.75/bu FOB. On new crop yellow peas, you will likely see $6.50 to $6.75 FOB the farm in a lot of areas.
The mustard market has not seen many fluctuations over the last couple of months. New crop pricing sits stable at 35 cents for yellow, 33 cents for brown, and 29 cents on oriental; all per pound, picked up on the farm and based on #1 quality with an Act of God. For those that have purchased mustard seed, or are still thinking on it, many of the seed trucks have been lined up and deliveries have started taking place. For product that is still in the bin, pricing has not seen much volatility either. Yellow mustard is 34 cents on a #1, brown is at 41 cents and oriental is closer to 28 cents. For those yet to pull the trigger, new crop values still pencil in decent and we have open acres available with differing movement options.
Oats are a market that have not seen much action as of late. Old crop and new crop values are quiet and trades have been limited. For oats in the bin we have pricing around $2.50 FOB on #2 CW quality. We also still have movement options for feed oats closer to the $2.00 -2.25/bu mark; based on the oats being heavy. There is some wiggle room on larger lots and if pricing is not where you need it yet – offers are always a good option. Talk with your merchant on reasonable target prices and movement before fall harvest for oats left in the bin.
Feed barley prices are still very strong, although movement is looking more like June/July as space in the near term has steadily filled up. Indications are at $4.50-$4.80/bu picked up in the yard for heavy and dry barley that has max 1 PPM vomitoxin. The further west in the province you are located, the better your price will get as most feed is heading in that direction. We are still seeing interest in new crop feed for fall movement. Some small opportunities in south west Saskatchewan at $4.00/bu picked up for off the combine movement are available and are attractive. Most areas of the province can get a $4.00/bu picked up for Jan-Mar 2019 movement with a full AOG. New crop prices have not been stable, so you may want to get something on the books sooner than later.
Canola nearby futures have rallied in response to recent weakness in the Canadian dollar along with seasonal buying and some interest from China. Canola exports are about 500,000 MT behind pace year to date, with recent weekly imports showing improvement. The looming CP strike could slow export activity and thus result in an increased carryout, which is currently indicated at 2 MMT. Recent improving spring planting weather could put pressure on the market along with the sentiment that the market is approaching overbought territory. The May contract is hovering near an RSI of 70, which is technically indicating an overbought market and due for a correction. Stats Can acreage report will be released Friday, and seeded acreage estimates are between 23.7 million and 24.3 million acres. Old crop sales opportunities are quite strong right now with futures running high and basis being very aggressive. Local delivered bids are in the $11.80 – $12.00 bu range, making sales at these levels should be a good move for most operations. Call our office for picked up bids with freight worked back to your farm.
This week we are seeing canary move up to 21c/lb FOB farm in certain areas, depending on freight. Demand for canaryseed has certainly increased as almost everyone would like to put some on the books. This does make sense though, seeing as demand usually spikes during the spring and summer timeline. Unfortunately, this is not translating into any major price swings as buyers are comfortable to not purchase rather than push past 21 cents. Despite this, the export market is currently behind the 5-year average, and with the Argentinian crop being smaller there may be hope for a price increase. Make sure you are talking to your merchant on throwing up offers. Offers are a great way to catch a high when there is demand in the market.
Flax markets are seeing interest from both sides of the fence. Buyers are looking and sellers are entertaining the market prices on both old and new crop. Milling markets for both brown and yellow remain quiet, but the #1 market is showing strength. A quiet milling market means that Europe still doesn’t have large demand for flax. Strength in the No.1 flax markets usually mean China is in the market place. A few buyers started booking new crop brown flax, and we have seen a few acres of new crop yellow trade as well. All new crop contracts include an Act of God. One buyer’s yellow flax program filled quickly as sellers were fond of the $14.00/bus value. Farmers have not been as receptive to the brown flax new crop pricing of $12.00/bus with an Act of God. The seeded acreage number seems too uncertain at this time when talking to farmers, as they are still undecided. Right now, the industry is predicting a slight increase. Weather may play a bigger role in how much gets seeded this year, as flax may be a last-minute decision for producers.
Lentil markets remain stagnant this week with little fluctuation in bids. We await the seeded acreage report, set to come out April 27th, but the industry feels like it has a pretty good grasp of what is to be expected. Red lentil acres down significantly (potentially as much as 30%) and green lentil acres flat to up marginally. What we agree with: the decline in red lentil acres and an increase in green lentil acres. What we would argue: as large of a drop as 30% in reds; it just doesn’t seem like we are going to lose that many acres when talking with growers. As we write, red values still hover around $0.17/lb FOB farm for both old and new crop. We have heard rumors of $0.175/lb FOB trade on old crop, but we have yet to see it. This is where firm targets come into play; potentially snagging a buyer sitting in the weeds. Spot large green prices sit at $0.25/lb for #2 quality, while new crop trades at $0.23/lb FOB on production with an Act of God.
Soybean futures seem to have had a rough couple of weeks as South American production numbers have been strong and weighing down the markets. Sales prices in the local market have remained strong partially to a weak dollar, and bids in the high 11’s to maybe $12/bu delivered to elevator make a lot of sense in the current climate. Our low dollar shields us from the pricing on soybeans in the US, but we are projected to see lower acres seeded this year in Canada due to low yields/poor returns last year. Fall pricing on soybeans remains in the mid 10’s to 11-dollar range in most areas of Sask. Pricing opportunities exist on Faba beans into the feed market, zero tannin types, remain at the $6.25 to $6.50/bushel picked up at the yard in most areas.
Feed wheat has stabilized slightly this week, after last week’s surge and drop. Bids remain strong though, sitting at about $5.50 to $5.75/bu FOB farm in good freight areas. Bookings have been brisk at these levels for feed wheat and durum. Based on current #1 red spring prices around $6.75/bu delivered elevator, the feed prices are still extremely attractive. If your product has any downgrading issues such as low protein, this could be an opportune time to lock some in. There are no protein worries if sold as feed. On the same note, feed prices obviously surpass the current market on CPS wheat. If you are still holding on to unpriced wheat, touch base with a merchant to see what price you can get FOB farm for after road bans.
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