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Rayglen Market Comments – July 21, 2021

Much like the weather, the barley market remains hot. Old crop feed values currently hover around $7.50 – $8.00/bu picked up on the farm for August movement. Prices will differ depending on the area, but regardless, these are great values. We suspect there is not much barley left sitting in storage to date, but if you have some bin bottoms left on the farm, now is the time to pay the neighbour kids to come shovel. New crop barley is still trending at $5.50/bu on the farm with pickup for earlier movement, and if this price doesn’t quiet do the trick for you, call in and throw out a firm offer. This does not necessarily mean that it trades at a higher value, but demand is strong and to quote an unknown source, “you never know, unless you try.” Although the new crop values do not come with an act of God, it may be late enough into the growing season now that you have a pretty good handle on what you can expect to bring in off the combine. This should alleviate some of the risk or stress of entering into a DDC contract.

As the majority of Canadian crops continue to experience a heatwave and lack of moisture, so do US crops. Domestic pea harvest will be occurring earlier than normal this year and has already begun in some of the northern states, such as Montana. After reports of a decline in green pea acres and now reduced yields, we see more demand and strength in green pea values. Expected yields have been cut back for all peas and we anticipate that supplies will be short this marketing year; likely boding well for pricing on all types. Old crop bids for yellow peas are indicated at $10.00/bu FOB with new crop at $9.50/bu FOB. Green peas are trading at $10.00/bu FOB on old and indicated as high as $10.50/bu on new crop. Maple peas are still quiet with bids around $9.00/bu on old and new with very few buyers coming to the table.

Canary seed production, like most other crops, is taking a hit on potential yield outcome. Earlier in July the canary crop was rated at 18% good to excellent and we have not had much favorable weather since, which means that percentage is likely reduced. On one hand we did have an increase in canary seed acres, however, these reduced yields will likely tighten supplies for this marketing year. Right now, old and new crop bids remain historically strong at $0.37/lb delivered plant; values we haven’t seen in ~20 years. We can expect that there will not be much downside in pricing, however we will have to see how much upside potential there is if demand is scaled back.

Flax prices remain solid as we move another week closer to harvest. There are buyers who still have room for old crop with indications up to $24.00/bu FOB and moved within the next couple months. New crop bids vary depending on movement timeframe, but prices can be found starting at $19.50 -$20.00/bu picked up, still with an act of God. With low carry-over supplies, there hasn’t been much flax moving into the market as of late and deliveries are well below average since April. On the flip side, stocks have been sitting at the West Coast, likely heading to China, which means there is still some buying interest before new crop comes off. What new crop yields will be remains a guessing game, but we don’t think anyone expects a bumper crop. Conditions continue to change but demand still needs to be filled. You will likely see prices continue to be historically high for the near future as we move forward.

Wheat markets see continued strength this week based on poor crop conditions throughout much of North America. On the feed side of things, you can expect to see values in the $9.50-$10.00/bu range FOB pending location. That said, with the recent strength, growers are encouraged to use the offer system to try and capture values slightly higher. The strongest bids remain to be seen in SW Sask. and Alberta as you move closer to feedlot alley, but buyers are looking for whatever they can get their hands on, meaning those in NE & SE Sask. need not worry. Milling wheat markets have also seen prices strengthen up this week, now indicated around $10.25 to $10.60/bu delivered for 13.5% protein product. The durum market is not left on the sidelines either and has been exploding this week. Prices seem to be all over the board, but bids are strong, and we’ve heard reports of $12-$15/bu available. If you do have some in the bin or in the field and are looking to market it, the best thing to do is to show your Rayglen merchant and they will get you a firm value in your yard.

Chinese soy demand is temporarily waning largely due to diminishing margins for Chinese soy crush facilities. Chinese buyers have partially opted for cheaper feed alternatives for the country’s large hog herd. This has caused traders to pause and, at times, has created some short-term softening in the Chicago soybean complex. The weakening Chinese demand is offset by global supply concerns in both Brazil and the US Midwest. Both have suffered from drought conditions in particular production regions. Bids are muted and buyers are asking for firm offers from sellers. Old crop fabas are trading between $8.50-$9.00/bu FOB farm, location dependent. New crop #2 export quality fabas are hovering right around $8.50/bu FOB farm. It’s estimated that dry bean acres in Canada and the US have decreased 18% and 13% respectively. Larger carryover inventory will not be enough to compensate for lower production and thus overall, 2021-22 supply is expected to decrease. Markets remain well supported predicated on export demand. Many are wondering when or if poor crop condition ratings will begin to factor into local price.

A reduction in seeded acres, diminishing carry-in and sliding yield prospects have the 2021-22 oat balance sheet tipping towards historically low levels. South of the 49th parallel, seeded acres are down 20% and expected harvest area is approaching a 30% decrease. US total oat production is anticipated to be down 37% year over year. Old crop milling demand is currently thin as millers largely have their programs covered. That said, they too have concerns about general supply with new crop bids being $4.25-$4.50 bu delivered in the eastern Prairies region.

Canola futures remain solid this week, but markets have seen some declines since yesterday’s close. At time of writing, November futures are down just over $36/MT with January not far off seeing a $30/MT fall. The majority of fragility is derived from the weakening soy complex, but scattered showers throughout the Prairies on Tuesday have likely helped to ease values as well. Currently, November sits at $874/MT with January only slightly lower at $860/MT. Local basis levels remain strong with indications on spot purchases still at $25/MT over for July/Aug., putting bids at roughly $20.50/bu delivered plant. New crop basis levels have shifted to $5/MT under for Sept./Oct. and $5-$15/MT over for November through March. This puts new crop bids in the $19.50-$20/bu range delivered plant. Values are historically strong and likely to stay as such until production hits the bin at which time the market will reevaluate supply and take direction.

The lentil market is very quiet on the selling side, even with buyers having some interest in purchasing. The red lentils market is the quietest of all the markets, this is likely due to the tonnage limit in India. Prices are ranging from 32-34 cents Fob farm. Buyers seem to have a bit more of an appetite for the large green lentils with price ranging from 36-40 cents Fob farm. Small green lentils are trading in the 34-35 cent range. Medium green lentils are trading in that 33-34 cent range.  Going into August, reds likely will remain flat to start the month off but may strengthen as yield reports come in. There is usually strong interest right off the combine for any green lentil as buyers want to book up and ship number 1 lentils right away as not to lose colour by shipping later in the year. Prices seem to vary from plant to plant and are changing rapidly, so leave the price discovery up to the merchants at Rayglen and you worry about harvest.

Mustard prices are again showing strength over the past week. With carryover tight, and crop conditions, there is no change to the tight outlook and prices remain strong. All types of mustard are included in this rise. Yellow mustard is trading at 54 cents FOB on both old and new crop, and it could possibly trade higher for full crop year movement. Brown mustard sits at 44 cents FOB and new crop goes even higher to possibly 45-46 cents for full year movement. Oriental Forge and Vulcan mustard go up to 37 cents FOB for old crop and new pushes to at least 38 cents. Cutlass sits at 36 for stuff in the bin and as high as 38 cents for full crop year on new crop. These prices are obviously at yearly highs and new crop is still available with an act of God for the time being. Good opportunities!

The chickpea market seems to be stronger, yet it’s not really making a racket about higher prices. We have had a few trades go through at 37c/lb FOB farm to 38 cents delivered on #2 large Kabulis over the last week, but by and large most sellers are in no rush as bin space is not at a premium this year. New crop prices on chickpeas are fairly similar with buyer interest at 37 cents, which should still include an act of God clause. Crop reports in recent weeks have surprisingly not fallen off drastically from the early positive conditions on chickpeas to the more recent very negatives. We are most likely passed the point of anything really helping this chickpea crop increase production, but quite possibly, cooler temperatures and smoke coverage might have lessened the complete losses. All in all, we do not expect much production on chickpeas given the weather conditions that most of the Canadian chickpea growing areas have experienced.

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.


Rayglen Market Comments – July 14, 2021

Canary seed prices are really holding at some unreal values with bids popping up to 37 cents as a delivered to plant price which is about the highest price, or darn close to it, that anyone here can ever recall on canary. New crop contract is at 37 cents with an act of God covering drought provided that the buyer is informed of any difficulties in due fashion. A notable point for any act of God contract is that the responsibility is there to inform your contracting parties promptly when you feel that the crop will not produce your contracted tonnages, so don’t let that important job fall through the cracks. Finally, the bins seem to be cleaned out on old canary seed stocks, which is not something we have been able to say for a number of years, but the stocks seem to be tighter now. It’s yet to be seen what this crop will produce this year but obviously this drought is not really adding up to a bumper crop on anything and canary is no different.

The US reported an increase to the chickpea acres for the coming year but with the ongoing poor growing conditions in both US and Canada the yield is expected to offset the increase. Some statistics expect the Canadian crop to be under 100k MTS which is under half of what was produced last year. As of June 28th, the crop rating is 10% good to excellent, down from 77% two weeks prior. Global trade is relatively quiet today, but as actual numbers start to leak out with harvest, it is suspected that the market perks up with slight concern over where supply will come from. Chickpeas have been known to bounce back but the question now is are we passed that point?

Mustard prices have moved up again this week as the crop conditions continue to regress within Canada and Montana. With another week of heat and concerns with grasshoppers popping up, we can expect yields to be down this year. Carryover supplies were already considered tight and with crop ratings coming down, prices are likely to remain bullish on all varieties. Yellow mustard is trading at 52 cents FOB on both old and new crop. Brown mustard took a jump on old crop to 44 cents FOB and new crop remains at 42 cents. Oriental mustard is priced at 36 cents FOB for both old and new. Demand is likely to increase and outlook on pricing remains positive.

Flax prices continue to climb as crop conditions deteriorate and supply gets tighter.  Buyers are still looking to purchase old crop at the $24.00 dollar range for July movement. New crop bids have perked up at $19.00-19.50 per bushel depending on movement window.  Not only are the North American flax crops in bad shape but reports now are suggesting that Kazakhstan and Russian crops may also be in rough shape.  Some major limiting factors in seeing the flax market push any higher than today’s crazy heights are the Chinese demand, and that the USA crush market continues to shrink. The overall outlook on flax will still remain positive but with current values obviously the upside provides some limitations on what more it could do.

The wheat market continues to be strong this week with most of the focus being pushed on the feed market side of things. Values range from $8.00 – $8.75/bu at the bin depending on the area. If you are searching for a bit higher value, we highly suggest putting in a target. New crop feed wheat also remains strong today with prices hitting around the $7.00 – $8.00/bu FOB farm. Milling wheat has also seen a bit of a rise this week with earlier movement ranging in that $10.20/bu for high protein (13.5%). Pushing into new crop, September delivery sits around $9.40 for a #1 CWRS, 13.5%, with that price trickling up as you push into later months for delivery. Although these prices do not come with an active act of God attached to them, locking in 5% – 10% of what you think you will produce would not be a bad idea to date. Preselling can give you a bit of money flow you can count on with some earlier movement.

Barley markets remain strong once again this week with all the push being into the feed market. There is not much talk surrounding malt prices but given the current price for feed, not many are exploring the option anyways. Old crop feed values are ranging in the $6.70 – $7.10/bu at the bin. Rightfully so as given the past few weeks, even months, with the price at those levels there is not much feed sitting in the bins. If someone had told you last fall that you could get $7.00 for your malt barley, let alone feed, you would have sold the whole lot. If you’re searching for a couple cents higher, product does seem to be moving on firm targets. New crop barley is hovering around the $6.00 – $6.50/bu at the bin price which is also a very strong number with earlier movement. Same scenario on new crop as old crop, so if you are searching for a bit more take-home price, call in and place out a firm offer. If it trades good, and if it doesn’t well at least you can say you tried.

Soybean futures are up on the week as the margin for error on this year’s US crop continues to be very small. While some soybean areas have received plenty of rain, there are significant areas such as North Dakota, which makes up 8% of national soybean acres, that continue to be in trouble. There is still buying interest in our markets these days, with firm targets appearing to be the best way to price out any soybeans left on farm. Reports out of Argentina are showing drought conditions have affected both yields and sizing of their dry bean crop. Meanwhile, Minnesota dry beans are entering into the flowering stage this week and there are concerns of drought in some key areas out there. Faba beans have stayed fairly quiet this week and look to be trading into feed markets around $8.50-$9/bu FOB farm.

Oats have been very quiet over the last while, but the brutal heat has been putting several crops in quite a bit of trouble. We have been hearing that a large chunk of the crop is in distress. So, the future, not just on oats, but all commodities are of concern to many producers. Quite a few buyers are covered for the rest of the crop year on old crop oats, but they continue to look for 2021 product on sales with movement into early 2022.  New crop milling oats have been trading around $3.50-$4.00/bu FOB farm. Price is dependent on movement and time frame. We always remind growers that if you spray your oats with glyphosate, you are potentially taking away marketing options. Touch base with your grain merchant to see what pre harvest chemicals are best for use on your oats.  If you have some feed oats, prices have been ranging between $2.50 to $3.25/bu FOB farm, also depending on bushel weight. Feed buyers like a nice heavy oat.

The green lentil market has shown a bit more interest this week.  There is some interest in old crop large green lentils up to 38c/lb FOB, while new crop hovers around 36c/lb FOB.  For those with small green lentils in the bins, showing an offer might get some attention this week.  Red lentils are mostly sideways at 32c/lb picked up. There will be areas of the province where yields will be affected by drought this year, however, analysts figure that will be offset by the lack of disease pressure. There has been some caution on both the buyer and seller end in the trade of lentils lately. There are some constraints being taking into consideration such as the uncertainty of the lentil crops and extreme high prices on ocean freight. The latest news about stock limits in India has had no serious impacts so far but it is another consideration for importers even though stocks in India are low right now.

Green pea prices have gained a bit of traction this week with prices up to $10.00/bu.  Yellow pea prices are also hanging around $10-$10.50/bu in some areas. With the low carry-in of supplies and the smaller seeded acres compared to last year, bids are likely to remain linear until harvest is well underway. There are some concerns with the smaller seeded pea acres in both Canada and the US, however it hasn’t generated a response from the market as buyers seem content with their coverage for now. This could change if we see the crop declining due to drought. Reports are coming in that there seems to be a mix of extremely poor pea crops and some good-looking crops. An additional factor to consider whether pea prices will rally is if and when China re-enters the market.

As new crop production concerns continue to mount, ICE canola futures respond by running up into the nosebleed section. Obviously, final production numbers won’t be known for certain until the harvest dust settles. However, that doesn’t tame the market from speculating. Not surprising the general theme in the trade is towards sliding production expectations. Most forecasts seem to be lining up confidently under 20 MMT, with a wide range on their wagers. One thing is certain though, new crop carryout inventory will be firmly under 1 MMT. Much of the price direction in canola will be dictated by global soybean and global vegetable oil markets. That said, given any run up in either of those markets and canola is poised to take any opportunity to follow. Cash delivered bids are bumping up against $21/bu delivered and new crop isn’t far behind.

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.


Rayglen Market Comments – July 7, 2021

The feed wheat market has seen some life again this week, now trading up to $8.75/bu FOB farm in a few locations. Buyers seem to be looking for product quite aggressively, so those with wheat on farm are urged to use the target system to capture the highs. New crop feed wheat prices remain strong and are bid over $7.00/bu in many areas of the Prairies. Moving to the milling side of things, #1, 13.5% protein CWRS has been trading between $9.00 to $9.20/bu delivered for fall movement, while #1 US spec milling durum trades between $9.50 to $9.75/bu FOB the farm in SE Sask. New crop bids are still guaranteed delivery, meaning there is no act of God to cover quality or quantity loss. For firm bids on your farm please reach out to your merchant.

Oat markets remain very quiet this week, but with the past heatwave across many key growing areas, along with a lack of moisture, we may start to hear reports of crops in jeopardy. At this point buyers are covered into the fall but continue to look for 2022 product. New crop milling oats are sitting around $3.50-4.00/bu FOB farm depending on freight and timeframe. As we inch closer to harvest, now is a good time to remind growers that to avoid limiting your marketing options, we would suggest steering clear of glyphosate and/or reaching out to your merchant regarding acceptable pre harvest chemicals. Currently, there is a bit of demand for feed oats, but the bushel weight has to be up for most buyers to even take a look. That said, if you do have light oats on farm, reach out and we will do our best to track down a bid. Offers are a good way to catch a high in the market and showcase what you have available, so don’t hesitate to discuss this marketing tool with your merchant.

The lentil market has been very quiet the past several weeks with most buyers content to take the “sit and wait” approach rather than increase bids to secure product. At this point, we have mixed reports of areas that vary from quite poor to pretty good. Even though we haven’t received much rain throughout the Prairies, and we just came out of a crazy heatwave, lentils seem to be hanging in there overall. Lentils are known as the “desert crop”, but there does come a breaking point, so hopefully we see some rain to finish the crop off on a strong note. All in all, buyers are still willing to purchase almost all types of old and new crop lentils. Old crop reds are sitting around $0.31-0.32/lb FOB farm, large greens between $0.33-0.35/lb and small greens anywhere around $0.30-0.31/lb FOB farm. There are attractive new crop opportunities out there with an act of God as well. Contact your merchant for firm FOB farm values.

Barley markets remain rather interesting as of late with old crop bids now ranging anywhere from $6.50-$7.30/bu at the bin and new crop sitting around $5.60-$6.20/bu FOB, pending freight costs. For those with barley still in the bin, this might be a reason to sell.  When was the last time you’ve seen those types of values for malt barley let alone feed? However, at this point we suspect there really isn’t much product left sitting on farm, or at least there shouldn’t be based on the strong values all year. On the other hand, recent reports have suggested that producers who are still holding on may try and offset a poorer looking harvest with their remaining bushels, which is understandable. As far as new crop contracting goes, you likely don’t want to lock up 50% of what you expect to produce based on crop conditions, but 10% might be a comfortable number at historically high values. Barley can be a surprising crop and a timely rain here and there might be enough to push it through. Whether these values push higher is hard to say, but as it sits now, the rate of return on barley is close to if not at the top when compared to other commodities.

After last week’s StatsCan report on flax, we see a new estimate of a 10% increase in seeded acres compared to last year. Supplies are expected to be unchanged, due to a slim carryover number. New crop prices are sideways, and range anywhere from $18.00-$18.50/bu picked up, depending on movement timeframe.  For those with any flax left in the bins, it is still possible to capture upwards of $23.00/bu FOB; a tough value to ignore. Globally, the market is counting on the Black Sea region to cover any shortfall, however there are some parts as you move into Kazakhstan and Siberia that are dry, which could threaten yields. There are a couple of reports that Russian crop conditions are faring well, and this remains a production area to keep an eye on. Finally, it remains uncertain how much of a player China will be in the market for next year which could potentially offset any production shortages.

I know this may come as a surprise, but chickpea markets remain relatively quiet for another week. Sporadic and periodic rains have sprinkled large parts of Western Canada but the size profile for the coming harvest continues to be a concern. There is a bit of a pop for a short supply available at $0.38/lb delivered Southwest & Northwest Sask. for July/Aug. movement but most of the market remains at $0.34-$0.35 old and new crop with freight sensitivity. These ebbs and flows give a feeling of how this market will continue for the unforeseeable future. Buyer has demand, pop up to fill it and then cut it off like a bad habit. Whether or not these pops are considered opportunity is up to the individual but with each of them we tend to find someone willing to fill the demand. Call for target opportunities.

Despite a bit of a recovery today, canola futures have dropped lower this week in a big way. Today’s recovery is due to support from soybean futures rising. November futures are currently sitting at $786/MT, down from last week at $807/MT. Meanwhile January futures are at $778/MT, also down from last week when they were at $802/MT. Much of the downward pressure this week came from major soybean growing areas in the US receiving significant rainfall. Despite the drop, much of western Canada has not received the moisture they need to produce an average canola crop, and this is something traders will need to keep a close eye on over the rest of the growing season.

Soybean futures are up based on decreasing US crop condition scores. Even with recent rains, the soybean crop appears to be struggling with dry conditions slightly more than the US corn crop. Firm Offers (targets), are still proving to be the most successful method to find a buyer for remaining soybean inventories. Recent stats indicate an increase in new crop faba seeded acres. Old crop feed quality fabas have been trading between $8.50/bu and $9.00/bu picked up on farm. Production challenges continue to be reported in in the major dry bean states of North Dakota and Minnesota and dry bean prices remain firmly supported. Contact Rayglen with your specific class and quality for marketing opportunities.

Acres are lower on all types of peas and due to heat/drought pushing things back from where they could be the crop is not looking great at this juncture. Pea crops don’t look strong in the US either, so the local (North American) production is not likely to be as strong as recent years. All this should bode well for our prices, but we must keep in mind that these are global markets and production in other parts of the world will have a say in this. Current bids have picked up a touch on old crop green peas with $9.50 to $9.75/bu picked up on farm trading for #2 quality. One thing to note, getting bin space cleared out before mid-August is an uphill battle to say it shortly. Yellow pea prices are in and around $10/bu picked up, but higher numbers might hit on target. If you are looking for a home for maple peas right now it might be a tough find as that market has really dried up and bids are indicated around $9/bu with minimal buyer interest.

It was very hot & windy last week in most mustard growing areas. There are concerns about crop condition, but this week has brought some cooler temperatures and scattered showers which should help to alleviate some of the pressure. Reports of crop demolishing hail have also come up, so we must keep monitoring the overall conditions out there. Prices are thus staying very strong.  Yellow mustard remains at $0.50/lb FOB farm for old crop and as high as $0.52/lb for new crop. Brown mustard sits at $0.43 for July movement and $0.42 on new crop. Oriental mustard is still being bid at $0.35/lb to $0.36lb FOB farm for Forge & Vulcan varieties, with the same discount applicable (~$0.02/lb) down to $0.33-$0.34/lb FOB farm on Cutlass variety for both old and new crop. It is important to show your merchant an offer as mustard could trigger higher on target. Show us what you have and don’t be shy to let us know what you want!

Last weeks StatsCan report showed a 15% seeded acreage increase over last year on canary seed, which should help bump up bushel numbers as a whole. Though the weather is taking a toll on yield potential and that problem looks to persist moving forward, we have seen sporadic and spotty precipitation accumulate throughout different areas. This should help to soften some of the blow given by Mother Nature in recent weeks. Currently both old and new crop pricing remains unchanged as $0.35/lb FOB trades in most locations and likely gets interest on a firm offer outside of the wheelhouse. Pricing looks to remain firm moving forward as ending stocks will be tight and environmental stressors on the currently planted crop seem to be bearing down.

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.


Rayglen Market Comments – June 30, 2021

StatsCan has released the seeded area estimates and mustard acreage for June 2021 has come in at 306,000ac. This was expected by us here at Rayglen, as the April report of 358,000 acres seemed a bit high. These estimates are still almost 20% higher than last year, but it’s a number that doesn’t seem to matter right now. Growers have concerns over extreme heat, wind, or drought conditions and that is obviously keeping bids strong to even slightly higher this week. Yellow mustard is at $0.50/lb FOB farm for old crop and as high as $0.52/lb for new crop. Brown mustard sits at $0.43 for July movement and $0.42 on new crop. Oriental mustard is still being bid at $0.35/lb FOB farm for Forge & Vulcan varieties, with the same discount to $0.33/lb FOB farm being seen on Cutlass variety for both old and new crop. Call your merchant if there is a firm offer that you’d like to show our buyers and we will do our best to get it traded.

It has been a solid week in the canola futures markets, with some big jumps before and after the release of the USDA. Strength in the soybean market as well as weakness in the Canadian dollar are giving support to canola, but the current heatwave and forecasted high temperatures across Western Canada seem to be an additional factor in recent price strength. November futures are currently sitting at $807/MT, up from $729/MT last week.   Futures have seen about a $12/MT gain (at the time of writing) after the USDA release. Going a bit further out, January futures are also seeing similar gains this morning currently sitting at $802/MT, up from $728/MT last week. We are seeing strong local basis levels and contracts for November delivery hit $18.50/bu or higher. If your crops are in a stable position, these values may be worth a look.

At this point in all markets, chickpeas included, weather is a larger factor than the supply and demand numbers expected tomorrow. In previous weeks, chickpea markets have reported higher than expected export numbers, but the carry from previous years is large and old news. The factors to watch today are dry and hot weather. While this will not mean a disaster for chickpea acres, it could translate to a smaller calibre crop. As long as quality is maintained there will be markets for small sizes, but we might expect to see a larger price spread between 7mm and 9mm as larger size becomes less common. Values remain unchanged this week as weather keeps everyone guessing.

We continue to see strong values on old crop feed barley with product trading around $6.15 – $6.65/bu picked up on the farm for July movement. With most product destined for feedlot alley, those in SW Sask. and Alberta should see the strongest values, but a few locations outside those areas are also capturing highs. Pricing support should hold for the next couple weeks as corn climbs higher after the release of the USDA. New crop values continue to hover in that $5 – $5.50/ bu FOB range which looks attractive, if you aren’t being pressured by the brutally hot weather and ever encroaching drought conditions that seem to be gripping a decent swath of the Prairies. A 9.7% increase in seeded acres this year over last may allow for a bit of a buffer, so to speak, should yield not quite be what is expected. Looking globally, over the next week or two, new crop barley harvest will be running full tilt in some areas of Europe. As such, we’re seeing pressure on CDN pricing as new crop barley is currently trading at roughly a $30/MT difference between the two with the former holding the cheaper value. The biggest issue appears to be making it through the next week to 10 days of weather.

Flax estimates from StatsCan don’t show any big changes from previous reports; acres up around 10% from last year. Exports have dropped slightly over the last couple of months and will continue to do so until new crop becomes available, due to limited supply in the bins.  Prices are still holding at $23.00/bu picked up for late Summer movement, while new crop varies anywhere form $18-$18.50/bu depending on movement time frame. The biggest thing to keep an eye on are the reports coming out of the Black Sea region as Russia is expected to have a new flax acreage record for 2021/22. There are also reports suggesting the Russia/Kazakhstan regions still have available supplies overseas. If you aren’t already receiving our email and/or text alerts, make sure to call the office so we can get you set up for those busy days in the field.

Canary seed prices remain firm with new crop bids creeping up to match old crop values this week. Trades are now taking place at $0.35/lb FOB farm in most locations on both product in the bin and also in the field. New crop contracts still include an act of God, making this a strategic move to get something locked in at historically high values, while alleviating the risk of drought and/or other uncontrollable factors. Typically, old crop prices tend to drop around this time so seeing the market maintain $0.35 could warrant a second look at moving product in the bin. Given the heat we’ve seen over the past couple days we understand it may be difficult to make those sales decisions right now, but it’s something to keep in mind for the near term. Cashflow, bin space and delivery windows are always something to keep in mind.

Not much new to discuss in the oat market lately, which seems to be a common theme over the past few months. Old crop trades remain next to NIL with new crop seeing much of the same action. We’ve had some renewed interest on old crop with buyers looking to purchase some heavier weight milling product for prompt shipment at the $3.50/bu range in Central SK., but the sell side is slow. New crop values sit around the $3.50 – $4.00/bu FOB farm dependant on freight and delivery window. If you are looking to get some locked in, we would highly suggest doing so now given the potential roll over of old crop into the 2021 harvest year. It seems to be a supply vs. demand game right now and the demand aspect is outweighing the supply portion. Reach out today to learn your best value or consider throwing a firm target out.

The wheat market may not be at the tip top highs seen earlier this summer, but values are still awfully strong overall. Feed bids range from $7.40 to $8.50/bu picked up on farm depending on the location of grain. New crop feed bids have pushed up over $7/bu in many areas of the province making for some unreal pricing opportunities for those willing to lock in a guaranteed delivery contract that doesn’t cover quality and/or quantity loss. Bids on #1, 13.5 CWRS are shown around the mid to high $9’s in many areas of the province in the nearby, while prices into Fall are still catching a little under $9.40/bu at this time. Milling durum bids are brisk in certain areas, with SE Sask. numbers showing $9.50 to $9.75 picked up on farm for #1 US Durum with 13% plus protein for Fall months as a picked up on farm price. Again, a great option albeit with no act of God clause.

Soybean acres and stocks reported lighter than the trade expected in today’s USDA report. Futures have responded sharply up. Yield potential remains relatively bullish, although there are still plenty of lingering questions as the season unfolds. Latest StatsCan acreage report posts fabas with a 28% year over year acreage increase to a total acreage of 127,000 acres. Old crop feed quality fabas have been trading between $8.50/bu and $9.00/bu picked up on farm. As previously stated, Canadian dry bean acres are down 18% year over year and hover near 373,000 acres. Production challenges continue to be reported in in the major dry bean states of North Dakota and Minnesota. Dry bean prices remain firmly supported. Contact Rayglen with your specific class and quality for marketing opportunities.

StatsCan seeded area estimates came out on Tuesday with a slight drop in peas of 19,000 acres from the earlier April estimations. Year over year, green acres were decreased by 221,000 from 2020, followed by yellows at 160,000 and finally “other varieties” down 49,000 acres. Possibly the most interesting aspect is a 28% drop in seeded acres for “other varieties”. This could cause some concern for buyers looking for maple, dun, and marrowfat peas this coming crop year. Carryover and demand should be the only factor to slow price gain. At this point, moisture concerns across Western Canada and generally lower seeded pea acres should mean a strong outlook for the coming crop year.

The seeded area estimates for lentils may surprise some as acres only increased by 100,000 from the April estimation. This increase barely put us ahead of last year’s numbers with the biggest difference being large green lentils are down nearly 21%. Most of those acres seem to have shifted to reds, but also worth noting is a 15% increase in small greens. The specialty lentil acres were also decreased by 10%, which is not surprising as these markets have not been competitive in pricing compared to the other lentil markets this year. With the decrease in the large green acres, we hope to see some price improvement in the future, likely with an initial push for #1 large greens as at harvest time as there will be very little to none left in the bin due to colour loss.  The #2 market may be discounted more than usual as there seems to be a decent amount left in the bins heading into the coming marketing year. Instead of seeing the usual 1-2 cent spread we could seed a 3-4 cent gap depending on this year’s crop quality. Don’t expect to see a big price run on lentils just yet as the overseas trade is still in a holding pattern.

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.


Rayglen Market Comments – June 23, 2021

Despite adverse weather conditions, the feel for the chickpea market today is that production will be average. A few timely rains could quickly shift things in the other direction, just the same way a lack of  moisture could take expectations below average. US acres are seeing large areas of extreme dryness and there is more concern on their production at this point due to large areas seeded to chickpeas. The market thus far has not postured one way or the other. Old crop/new crop values have come together at $0.34-$0.35/lb FOB farm and sample/feed grade are at a high of $0.22/lb FOB farm depending on the down grading factors. Really, all eyes are directed to the weather and the anticipation of overseas markets opening up.  The next 2 weeks will be essential in how the production plays out congruent with weather.

A slight change in canaryseed pricing this week as old crop bids drop to  33.5 cents/lb delivered FOB, with new crop values holding firm at 33.5cents/lb delivered including an act of God. Look to see old and new crop values hold firm with minimal stock on farm and with what looks to be an average crop on hand right now. Couple that with Canadian and Argentinian acreage pegged to decrease and we should continue to see supported values. One other piece of the puzzle to take a look at is the steady decrease in production and supply the last couple years with India’s Niger seed crop, which has pushed values up this year. So far, all signs are pointing to a strong pricing year for canary. A typical harvest pricing decrease may not be the case this year!

After some widespread rain recently, blistering heat and gale force winds have pretty well taken care of any excess moisture according to most producer reports. More timely rains are needed to get that bumper crop that producers are looking for. Despite the lack of moisture, the barley market has certainly come down over the last little while. Prices have been bouncing between $6.00 to $6.50/bu FOB farm depending on area, with the latter tougher to come by outside of the freight hotspots. Of course, the closer you are to feedlot alley the better the price usually is. Buyers are not showing the aggressive demand they once were, likely due to the fact that new crop is just around the corner. New crop prices for Sept.-Dec. movement remain strong though and have been trading between $5-$5.50/bu FOB farm.

Wheat markets seem to have flatlined this week, with much of the demand being pushed into new crop. It seems taking a “daily watch” approach to markets is the way to go, as the odd spike in values does pop up. One of those recent spikes has a high protein HRS milling wheat at $9.00/bu FOB farm, but demand quantity is light, and bids are very area specific. There is still production contract availability out there in the $8.50 – $8.75/bu range for early Winter movement. The feed market and value are much the same, but prices seem to be falling this week here. To get an accurate value call in and share what you have! Milling durum buyers are still showing interested in SE Sask. product, with trades happening around that $9.00/bu FOB farm price for July – August 2021. New crop values seem to be a touch higher at the $9.20 – $9.75/bu range; the longer you’re willing to sit on it, the higher the value will be. Should these contracts fill, we don’t expect to see similar values or delivery periods available come harvest. If storage, or cash flow is appealing to you, these are great starting points to make sales.

Weather forecasts continue to have a strong influence on the market. The US Midwest is anticipated to receive some degree of rain from Wednesday to Saturday. How that all plays out is always the big question. So, we see modest market activity until the weather outcome is known. Soybean buyer demand is behaving similarly. Bids are muted and buyers are asking for firm offers from sellers. Old crop fabas are trading between $8.50-$9.00/bu FOB farm, location dependent. New crop #2 export quality fabas are hovering right around $8.50/bu FOB farm. Reduced dry bean acres both North and South of the border are expected to be confirmed in the coming week. Markets remain well supported predicated on export demand. Many are wondering when or if poor crop condition ratings will begin to factor into local price.

During the Summer months we typically see a slip in pricing as buyers anticipate the coming of new crop supply and this currently seems to be the case for peas. Yellow peas pulled off their highs from last week, down to $9.00–9.50/bu FOB, while green peas see values at similar levels with limited demand. The majority of new crop bids on yellows and greens are coming in at $9.00/bu FOB, however there may be a chance to capture $9.50/bu on a small new crop green pea program in Central Sask. Crop rating reports peg the Saskatchewan pea crop at 80% good to excellent. It still looks like supplies will be tighter heading into the next marketing year, unless next week’s StatsCan report increases acres drastically (which is not expected). Maple peas also remain quiet as old crop is priced at $9 – $9.50/bu FOB and new crop at $9.00/bu FOB with an act of God.

Flax prices remain sideways this week with old crop just barely hanging on to $23.00/bu picked up.  New crop remains strong with prices ranging anywhere from $18-$18.50/bu FOB with an act of God. Deliveries on flax are below average for this time of year but supplies are running low so that doesn’t come as much of a surprise. Exports in from the Black Sea region have been above average in March and April suggesting there is still available supply overseas. That said, there remains uncertainty pertaining to new crop flax reports coming out of the Black Sea region. It will likely take a few months before we receive actual confirmation, but if the acres are higher as originally reported, then we could see Canadian prices level off or even dip lower.

There remains little to no talk surrounding the oat market for another week. Spot purchases have moved to the back burner as most buyers are covered well into new crop and focus has shifted to purchasing for 2022. Grower reports on cereals are mixed, oats included, as the heat wave eliminates much of the available moisture in many areas. There isn’t much for prompt movement on milling oats, but every once in a while, we do see short lived programs pop up and we urge growers to take advantage of our target system to capture these opportunities. Feed buyers are still looking for product, but bushel weight must be up. Light weight product does not seem to be catching any interest. New crop milling oat bids sit around $3.50-$4.00/bu FOB farm depending on freight cost and delivery window. Deferred shipment into 2022 will capture your highest values. If you have product in the bin that you need to move before harvest, reach out to us to discuss some possible options.

November canola futures are rebounding this week after a tough end to last week. An expected wave of heat throughout the Prairies as well as a lack of any significant moisture in the nearby forecasts is lending support in prices. Many areas in the Prairies are approaching the point where the crop may start backtracking without a significant rain and this is something we will continue to keep an eye on. November futures currently sit at $729/MT while the further out January futures are just slightly lower at $728/MT. Basis levels for new crop months are still holding strong in many areas so as we see these bumps in the futures markets, there may be some excellent opportunities to lock in a portion of your crop and secure a profit.

Lentils continue to lose steam as we near the end of the 2020/21 crop year, but that doesn’t mean there aren’t still profitable opportunities available. The trade is starting to focus more attention on new crop, but strong bids are still being seen for spot purchases. Old crop reds still have bids indicated at $0.31-$0.32/lb FOB, while old crop large greens now trade between $0.33-$0.35/lb FOB farm. Small green lentils are in light trade, but indications still roll in around $0.30-$0.31/lb and we have seen some renewed interest from a few buyers on French green lentils. Farmer reports across the majority of the Prairies suggest lentils crops are in okay condition now but will need moisture soon. There are a few areas that are struggling, especially South of the border, and we will keep a close eye on how things progress over next seven to ten days. A widespread rain even would alleviate much of the concern, but if the heat continues crops could regress.

The mustard market remains fairly strong this week. This is a bit surprising as we have witnessed serious pullbacks in many other commodities, but fortunately, mustard is hanging in there firmly. We are monitoring the moisture situation in a few areas as heat and wind remains a concern. Yellow mustard is right around $0.48 to $0.50/lb FOB farm for both old and new crop. Brown mustard sits at $0.41 to possibly $0.42/lb for old crop and $0.40 on new crop.  Oriental mustard is still being bid at $0.35/lb FOB farm for Forge & Vulcan varieties, with a slight discount to $0.33/lb FOB farm on Cutlass for both old and new crop. All new crop contracts include an AOG on 10 bu/acre. If you have a partial load in the bin don’t be worried as we have a number of buyers willing to make the freight work at these top prices.

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.


Rayglen Market Comments – June 16, 2021

The lentil market has been softening on the notion of a few areas catching rain and new crop approaching quickly. India’s red lentil prices have also pulled back from their recent highs, as we anxiously wait to hear whether or not the Indian government will reduce lentil tariffs. Current pricing on red lentils is sitting at $0.34-$0.35/lb delivered, with new crop values at $0.31-$0.32/lb FOB farm, with an act of God. Large greens are priced at $0.38/lb delivered for old crop and $0.35-$0.36/lb FOB farm on new crop with AOG. Small green lentil trades have been a bit quieter over the past couple of weeks, but there are interested buyers. Old crop bids have settled out around $0.34/lb delivered, while new crop values are indicated at $0.32/lb on farm with an act of God. It is key to note that in any case buying positions are not deep. Once buyers secure enough tonnage on their sale, pricing seems to fade almost immediately, so those sitting on the fence may want to consider making sales while these values are still attainable.

Oats remain to be small talk in the world of grain lately as demand for milling quality is mostly pushed out until the harvest months. That said, there might still be a window of opportunity to let some go before new crop hits the bin, but we suspect bids to be around that $3.00/bu range give or take a few cents. There continues to be some movement into the feed market for oats, but buyers are looking for heavy product with little interest in light weight. New crop milling oats are sitting around the $4.25/bu mark delivered into Southern Manitoba with values increasing a bit if you push delivery into 2022. At the bin pricing is available so reach out to a merchant for a firm value on your farm. We do not expect old crop values to go any higher from now until August, so we highly suggest if you need it out of the bin before harvest to start looking for sales now. The other option: carry it over and see what we are dealing with after the 2021 crop is harvested.

Flax acreage estimates from both StatsCan, and the USDA will come out in the last week of June, but analysts are not expecting any big changes from previous reports. April showed a drop in exports of Canadian flax to Europe and China, while shipments to the US were steady. Exports will continue to drop for the next coming months due to limited supply. Russian analysts issued a 2021 flax forecast of 850,000 tonnes, up from 788,000 tonnes compared to last year. While Russian exports could have new records for 2021/22, there are areas in Siberia with dry conditions, so these predictions are still early. New crop prices remain strong at $18-$18.50/bu picked up with an act of God. For those with flax in the bins, let us know what you have as we still have buyers looking.

The canola market is taking another hit Wednesday morning, down almost $30/MT on the nearby and $21/MT on new crop. This follows a string of down days as the canola market trails weakness in soybeans coupled with recent rains that have our crops looking a little better. Warm and windy weather may taper some of the losses though, if Mother Nature doesn’t smarten up soon. Nearby basis levels have not fallen to pieces yet and new crop levels are stronger than normal, which lends to the thought that there should still be some support for this market in one way or another. With the added moisture of recent weeks, we have saw some increased selling in certain areas for new crop production as sales in the $16 to $17/bu range is a great spot to take the top off on a low risk 10 bushel or so position. If you have not made any sales yet a small position may be a prudent move.

Barley crops look to be off to a decent start this year with most areas catching some rain over the past few weeks. It does not go unnoted that soaring temperatures and strong winds won’t take long to dry out fields again, but we all hope to see a few more showers before that happens. Spot bids have held up relatively well considering, and new crop prices are still holding strong as corn and wheat values remain high. Demand for old crop has fallen off a bit and buyers don’t seem as aggressive as they once were, but there are still opportunities to make profitable sales. With new crop around the corner, some demand softness likely comes from curiosity of what this year will bring. Today, new crop prices are between $5-5.50/bu FOB farm for Sept.-Dec. movement. Old crop bids are sitting around $6.15-6.70/bu FOB farm for Summertime movement. Offers are a good way to show buyers what you have and to try and squeeze a bit more value out of your product. Keep this in mind when marketing now and in the future.

Chickpea exports were reported to be up to 102K MT for the year compared to 84K MT last year. This will reduce the amount of carry expected for 2022, but still leave a substantial amount on farm. The main buyer remains to be Pakistan, but Syria and Lebanon are also in the mix. Sask. Ag’s first crop report slated chickpeas thus far to be 68% good/excellent which is below last year’s 76% for the same time frame. The general feel is an expected increase in chickpea values, but this looks to be a long climb vs a jump. Current new crop and old crop values hover at $0.35/lb FOB farm with an AOG on new crop. Sample/feed values, depending on downgrading factor, are indicated at $0.22/lb today. New crop Desi chickpeas have recently peaked one buyer’s interest for #2 or better quality at $0.30/lb FOB farm including AOG. Bids are freight sensitive, so please call with location if interested. Lastly, if you already have acres booked, don’t forget to submit your land locations to secure your AOG.

The milling wheat market has been stable over the last while, trading between $8.70 to $8.75/bu delivered for #1 CWRS on August delivery. Production opportunities are a touch softer, being bid at $8.50 to $8.70/bu for Nov./Dec. movement. The milling durum market continues to capture sales in extreme SE Sask. with buying taking place between $9.00 and $9.50/bu FOB farm for late Summer/early Fall movement. Unfortunately, we just haven’t seen the same demand outside of that Southeast pocket, but growers are encouraged to post realistic offers in their area to try and capture some of this demand. Feed wheat values have softened a touch this week and have now been trading between $7.50 to $8.35/bu FOB farm. Western SK. and Alberta have seen the highest indications of feed due to their closer proximity to feedlot alley.

Soybean futures continue to regress due to anticipated promising weather and reducing US crush rates. High prices have caused local soybean demand to wane. Best play at this point is to use target price offers to attract buyer interest. The feed market has kept faba beans well supported thus far. Old crop fabas are trading between $8.50-$9.00/bu FOB farm, location dependent. New crop #2 export quality fabas are hovering right around $8.50/bu FOB farm. Dry bean prices remain well supported for remaining inventories, both North and South of the 49th. A reduction in seeded acres and challenging growing conditions in the Northern states have offered strength to new crop opportunities.

Mustard prices continue to be stable and strong this week with no changes to report. Yellow mustard is right around 50 cents/lb FOB farm for both old and new crop. Brown mustard is at 41 cents/lb FOB farm for old and new crop. Rounding things out, Oriental mustard is at 35 cents/lb FOB farm for Forge/Vulcan varieties and 33 cents/lb FOB farm for Cutlass on both old and new crop. All new crop contracts include an AOG on 10 bu/acre. Some much-needed rains in the last few weeks across the Prairies, as well as strong prices are creating some profitable opportunities that are worth a look. If you have a partial load in the bin don’t be shy to call in as we have a number of buyers willing to make the freight work at these top prices.

Peas have settled back down after seeing a little uptick last week.  There are a few bids left at $10.00/bu FOB for yellows in the right location and growers outside the wheelhouse are encouraged to try to create an offer. Green peas have settled back to that $9.50/bu delivered mark. When talking with buyers this week, it is reported that there is very little demand coming out of China right now, which is keeping the market subdued. Reports suggest that the increased green pea demand and value over the last couple of weeks was due to product being bought to go into Nepal. Now that prices have settled, we can infer they were not looking for many tons and that the shipping window was fairly tight as well.  The market will remain unsettled as demand at this time of year is normally relatively quiet.

Canaryseed values continue their trek sideways this week. Bids remain unchanged while demand seems to be softer than just a few weeks prior. This could be a sign that it is time to get those bins cleaned out and new crop on the books before harvest hits, as we restock the shelf and buyers reposition themselves. Old crop values are quoted as high as 35.5 cents/lb delivered with new crop being bid at only a slight discount, to 33.5 cents/lb.  New crop contracts still contain a full act of God clause which seriously alleviates the risk of dry conditions, hail and any other “out of your control” threats. Getting 10bu/ac on the books at historically strong values is recommended to start putting some profit in your pocket, secure shipment windows and create bin space.

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.


Rayglen Market Comments – June 9, 2021

There were a couple of positive changes in pea values late last week, with both green and yellow peas making small moves. Yellows crept back to $10/bu FOB in Central and North Central Sask., while green peas saw a short-lived uptick to $10/bu FOB in Southeast Sask. Today, yellow pea bids remain at a similar range in those areas but posted bids on green peas have taken a step back to their comfort levels of $9.00-$9.50/bu FOB. Many growers are actively targeting $10/bu on farm for their greens now, but buyers don’t seem to be interested in those levels today. New crop has not seen any changes with yellow peas at $8.50 – $9.00/bu FOB, greens at $9.00/bu FOB and maples indicated at $9 – $9.50/bu FOB, all including an act of God. As of late May, the Saskatchewan pea crop was rated at 67% good or excellent which is below last year’s rating of 84% according to recent reports. However, there have been recent rains passing through the Prairie provinces and it’s still too early to make the call on how this crop will turn out.

Barley markets remain strong this week. Old crop feed values are sitting anywhere from $6.50 – $7.00/bu FOB farm, while new crop is currently indicated at $5.00 – $5.50/bu FOB farm on a non-act of God contract. Reports of water falling from the sky and talks of more in the coming days, should offer a bit of relief for the 2021 crop ahead. Barley can be a bin buster crop, so save yourself some grief searching for storage come harvest and lock up earlier movement into the feed market. At risk of sounding like a broken record, we expect to see much of what is not grown under contract this year to have a delayed delivery window. As new crop feed contracts fill, expect this to play a role in pricing at harvest. That $6.50 to $7.00/bu at the bin now sure does look nice, but given the number of seeded acres, on top of what is already booked, buyers may not have to pay a premium and could very well work with what they have. Don’t miss the boat and leave yourself stranded on the island, rather, lock in a small percentage of expected production at historically high feed values and buy the boat!

No changes to report in the oat market since last week. Buyer bids remain tough to come by on old crop milling oats, with less than a handful of players in the game. Both milling and feed oat values hover in the low to mid $3/bu range picked up on the farm pending spec. Those looking to sell feed oats will require some decent weight as exceptionally light product is not of not much interest. If you’re looking for a market high point, early June typically tends to be the time and we are quickly withdrawing from that window. So, if you’re still sitting with product in the bin and are looking for more value, you may be forced to carry over until demand picks back up. New crop milling bids for the fall sit at $4.25/bu delivered into Southern MB., while late 2022 shipment is indicated at $4.50/bu delivered into Eastern SK. Give your merchant a call for firm pricing opportunities in your area.

Flax prices hold up and remain strong for another week. Old crop is still capturing $23.00/bu picked up, meaning it’s a good time to empty out the bins and make room for new crop. Production contract prices are up a touch this week, now quoted at $18-$18.50/bu FOB with an act of God, depending on area and movement timeframe. Analysts expect the 2021 yield on flax to be close to the 5-year average and based on those numbers, new crop supply with be similar to last year’s production. However, as we know, there is a smaller carry-over which is why we are seeing flax hold its value. The biggest unknown will be how much production the Black Sea region can supply and if it is enough to ease some of the perceived high values.

With precipitation in the forecast and the recent heat doing its work on the crops, chickpea markets remain relatively unchanged. Demand chatter is unaffected and reduced acres still leave a bullish feel despite the stock of supply in the bin. It’s no secret that North America is one of the only exporters with an oversupply available. If monsoons don’t produce in India, restrictions continue to lift and demand increases, it will be North America that buyers look to for supply. Another game changer to keep an eye on is the possibility of too much moisture and the potential threat of disease. Chickpea markets see some demand for July-Aug. shipping at $0.37/lb FOB farm and new crop contracts can still be signed at $0.34-$0.35/lb FOB farm with an AOG. Sample and feed markets range from $0.18-$0.22/lb and buyers are always looking for this lower quality product.

The milling wheat market has softened up a bit this week. Bids for #1, 13.5% protein now sit around $8.65 to $8.70/bu delivered to plant for July/Aug. movement. There remains a small discount for 12.5% protein milling wheat, but feed values are likely to surpass those bids in many cases, so we suggest growers look to those markets to capture higher returns. The durum market has seen some life this week in Southeast Sask., trading between $9.00 to $9.50/bu FOB farm for late Summer and/or early Fall. Values taper off as you move North and West, with most bids closer to $8.50/bu FOB outside of the extreme Southeast. As touched on earlier, feed wheat markets remain very attractive and can even be a great option for those with milling quality. Growers in ideal freight areas can see bids as high as $8.50/bu FOB farm for July shipment, while those outside the “wheelhouse” likely won’t see values under $7.75/bu FOB farm. The closer you are to feedlot alley, the better the price usually is, but there are exceptions. Call today for a firm bid in your yard.

Large green lentil markets have lost some steam this morning with most buyers pulling values back a cent or two. Although not all, one buyer has even gone so far as to step out of the purchasing game until values settle out. Could this be a sign of more to come? We’ve seen some drastic swings in bids, with some buyers as high as $0.39/lb delivered last Friday, dropping to $0.35/lb Monday morning and now no bid today. That said, there are still a few players left in the game at $0.36-$0.37/lb FOB farm and now may be the time to sign up what’s left in the bin. As of now, we are unsure what is causing the price drop but it’s most likely a combination of some timely rains, shipping concerns out of Vancouver and the thought of new crop getting closer to hitting the bin. As mentioned last week, speculation is going to play a major part in determining values for the next few weeks, so be prepared for a bumpy ride. Current crop red lentils are in a similar situation as firm birds become tougher to track down, with the target system seeming to work best to get product sold. Spot reds trade on firm target in the $0.33-$0.34/lb range. New crop red lentil contracts are still available at $0.32/lb FOB farm with an act of God, while DDC’s (NO act of God) carry a premium, possibly up to $0.35/lb delivered.

Canola futures have been a mixed bag this past week, with July futures falling significantly and November futures taking a bump up. Today has been a negative day in the markets so far, with $22/MT and $16/MT losses for July and November, respectively. At time of writing, July futures trade at $844/MT compared to last week at the same time when they were $899/MT. November futures currently sit at $757/MT compared to $745/MT last week.  Some of the weakness has come from moisture falling across areas of the Prairies that needed it.  Add in the reluctance in a few other key markets and you can see plenty of reasons for the drop. Strong local basis levels continue to be posted and we’re seeing great new crop pricing opportunities that are definitely worth a good look.

Canaryseed remains flat for another week as buyers continuing to look for both old and new crop, unwilling to reach beyond their posted bids. As parts of the Prairies catch some (un)expected rain, with more forecasted this week, we are not sure how long these high prices will stick around, especially as other markets show weakness. Now may be a good time to review the following bids and make some sales. New crop continues to trade at $0.33/lb FOB farm with an act of God on the first 10bu/acre. Old crop trades at $0.35/lb FOB farm in certain areas for Summertime movement. These bids are indicated for the best freight areas, but growers who are outside of those areas can still capture strong bids at a slight discount.

Mustard prices seem to have leveled off this week with spot and new crop both trading steadily at strong values. We have seen a mix of trades taking place; from large lots to small bin clean outs and some last-minute new crop bookings as much needed rain hits. Yellow mustard continues at $0.50/lb FOB farm for both old and new crop with an act of God. Oriental bids have been strong at $0.35/lb on Forge and Vulcan varieties for both old and new crop, with Cutlass about 2 cents behind. New crop and old crop brown bids are showing $0.41/lb to possibly $0.42/lb in the yard on firm targets. If you are looking for a home on new crop or any sized bin clean out, give us a call. Buyers seem to be willing to move small loads to help you with space issues on farm.

Forecasted rain and profit-taking ahead of tomorrow’s USDA report have pushed soybean futures down. Crop condition scores and weather forecasts will continue to bounce the market around as analysts try to forecast its ultimate impact on grain stocks. Buyer interest remains somewhat subdued due to decent coverage; however, buyers will look at any reasonable offer. Faba market remains well supported, with old crop feed values trading at $8.50-$9.00/bu picked up.  The Australian faba bean crop is anticipated to be historically large and will weigh on new crop export opportunities. Dry beans are experiencing solid demand South of the border, with exports being more restrained in Canada. This has buoyed US old crop values and to an extent Canadian values as well. New crop appears to have solid pricing prospects largely due to a reduction in seeded acres.

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.


Rayglen Market Comments – June 2, 2021

Feed barley bids show signs of life this week. Old crop values now range between $6.50 – $7.00/bu at the bin for June/July shipment, with a chance product trades a touch higher on firm offer. New crop is much of the same story with average bids around $5.00/bu FOB farm, area dependant. That said, show buyers what you’re looking for by posting a firm offer if your sell point is slightly higher than current bids. With such a strong push to purchase barley in months past, we suspect carryover of old crop will be minimal which should be supportive for values. Uncontracted new crop barley coming off this Fall may experience a delayed shipping window given the amount of new crop locked in at profitable levels. Don’t miss out, get some new crop on the books, create bin space and cashflow in the Fall.

Canaryseed holds strong for another week with no signs of vulnerability. However, buyers are not reaching any higher than current posted bids, which indicates markets have found a comfortable level; for now, anyways. As we have been saying for some time, if you are interested in signing up new crop canary, sooner rather than later is best. As we inch closer to harvest, we may see the act of God clause drop out of contracts and/or buyers may decide to sit on the sidelines and wait for their contracted product to start coming in. Getting your 10bu/acre on the books at historically strong values while taking some risk of the table with the AOG clause is a market savvy move. New crop prices are still bid around $0.33/lb FOB farm in many areas. Old crop is holding at $0.35/lb FOB farm in most locations with a couple of buyers interested in purchasing. If you are looking for prompt movement, you may want to post an offer at a slightly lower value.

Slower than expected soybean planting rates and dry conditions in the US has sent soybean prices higher this morning. Continued strength in the soyoil market also lent strength to the soy complex. Emergence rates for US soybeans remain ahead of historical values for this time of year, though last week’s frost damage could bring this year’s rating closer to average in the coming weeks. Local soybean bids are reflecting buyer coverage and have slid to now hover around $15.00/bu picked up depending on location. Buyers are encouraging any reasonable offer to be brought forward rather than a posting a standing bid. The faba market remains well supported, with old crop feed values trading at $8.50/bu picked up. Dry beans are experiencing solid demand South of the border, with exports being more subdued in Canada. This has buoyed US old crop values and, to an extent, Canadian values as well. New crop appears to have solid pricing prospects largely due to a reduction in seeded acres.

Chickpea markets chew on statistics this week and how they will affect the value in the upcoming marketing year. Given the predicted reduction in acres and using an estimate possible yield, North America could see a 17% reduction in chickpea production from last year. Most of that reduction would be realized in Canadian acres vs US as the US stats show little to no decline in chickpea acres over last year. Turkey is also reporting a decline over last year by about 14%. Locals believe this is understated as dry conditions have impacted production yields and it is expected this stat will change. Current crop bids are steady from last week and we believe opportunity exists for reasonable targets to lead to a trade. New crop remains the same as last week with bids around $0.35/lb FOB farm with an AOG. There is less wiggle room for upward movement on new crop for the time being. Best advice is to know what is in your bin. Check your bin tops for downgrading factors, get a true sample and be ready for marketing opportunities.

The pea market is showing some strength in value and demand this week. Yellow values have perked back up while green pea pricing remains stable, but we are seeing more demand generally. Exports have been slow, as per reports, but this is normal for late in the season. Current pricing on yellow peas is posted at $9.50-$10.00/bu FOB farm now, while new crop is trading up to $9.00/bu FOB with an act of God. Green pea pricing hasn’t changed too much, but increased demand is being seen, which could mean stronger pricing in the near term. Currently, bids are still indicated at $9.00/bu FOB, with grower targets hitting the system at $9.50-$10.00/bu FOB farm. New crop greens are still bid at $9.00/bu FOB with an act of God. Lastly, maple peas are indicated at $9.50/bu FOB for both old and new crop, with the chance for a slight premium on Acer variety.

As seeding begins to wrap up, we see the majority of wheat acres already in the ground. Extreme heat conditions will be felt through much of the province this week, but forecasts of rain to follow in some areas should help ease the heat stress. This week the milling wheat markets have shown a bump up in price with #1, 13.5% protein trading around $9.50 to $9.60/bu delivered to plant for July/Aug. movement. There are small discounts for 12.5% protein milling wheat, so please call if you fall within those specs. The durum market has been quietly trading around $9.00/FOB in the Southeastern part of Saskatchewan with values softening as you move North and West. Feed wheat markets took a step towards levels comparable with a few weeks ago. Bids are once again coming in at $8.00-$8.50/bu FOB farm in many locations with a slight variance under $8/bu in the “worst” freight areas. If you’re looking for the most current and up to date prices in your area, please contact your Rayglen merchant.

Mustard prices see continued strength on both new and old crop fronts. Current bids are showing new and old crop yellow mustard at $0.50/lb FOB farm. Oriental bids have firmed up to $0.35/lb on all varieties of late and for those that have been on the sidelines waiting for cutlass type to catch up to forge, the time seems to be now. New crop and old crop brown bids are showing $0.41/lb to possibly $0.42/lb in the yard on firm targets. As always new crop contracts on mustard are for approximately 10 bushels per acre and include an act of God. If you are looking for a home on a partial load that you have been sitting on for a while, now is likely the time as freight discounts remain fairly nominal based on the current values and buyers will happily look to pick up a partial load.

Old crop milling oat bids are hit and miss as many buyers are close to or are completely covered until new crop. Hence, price points are soft with #2 milling bids sitting around that $3.75/bu picked up on farm, depending on farm location. Fast forward a couple months to new crop and pricing indications in central Sask. sit around $3.75/bu for the last quarter of 2021, $4/bu for J/F/M and $4.30 for Apr-Aug. Please connect with your merchant for firm pricing at your farm. On the feed side, buyers are looking for product, but knowing your weight is key. A good heavy feed oat looks to price in around that $3.50/bu range.

Over the past week we have seen canola futures advance higher. This comes after a few weeks of consistent losses, dropping values well below their yearly highs. July futures currently sit at $899/MT, up from $873/MT last week. November futures, the month most physical canola buyers are using for pricing, are sitting at $745/MT. At this time last week, we were seeing $694/MT, so quite a large jump over the past 7 days. These gains come despite a drop in canola oil crush margins, which are still very high compared to historical values. Other factors contributing to the gains across the board are strength in soybeans and forecasted intense heat across the Prairies later this week.

Flax prices are sideways again this week with $23.00/bu FOB farm still attainable on old crop. New crop bids remain stable as well, but vary depending on movement, with upwards of $17.00/bu picked up including an act of God still achievable. Recent rains have provided some moisture relief, but with unseasonal heat this week, it could be a concern for those in drier areas. Old crop demand is quieter as buyers wait for new crop. New crop prices are likely to remain firm as there will be a slim carry-over of Canadian flax. Some analysts report the Chinese flax crop for 2020/21 has dropped by 30%. If Chinese production increases for this growing season, we could see less demand for 2021/22. This along with the prospect of a larger Black Sea crop means there could be some volatility in prices.  Having 10bu/acre on the books at $17.00/bu FOB, or higher, takes some risk off the table.

The lentil markets are messy right now to say the least. Prices seem to be all over the place with buyers seeming more interested in where the competition is priced than actually buying lentils. The market is filled with lots of speculation at the moment ranging from ending stocks in all the major players cupboards, questions surrounding the India tariff, crop conditions in Canada & Australia and destination sales. This is causing the markets to be very unsettled. For example, new crop reds with an AOG range from $0.30/lb FOB farm to as high as $0.33/lb delivered plant. Large green lentils tell the same story with a 3-cent range in old crop bids and a 2-cent range in new crop bids between different companies. Markets will likely stay this way for the next few weeks as we wait on the major players to really come to the table instead of buying hand to mouth to fill their needs.

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.


Rayglen Market Comments – May 25, 2021

The spread between old and new crop pea values is slowly disappearing as export business slows and farmers opt to not chase the market. Old crop yellow peas are hard to come by with the majority of bins cleaned out, however, there still seems to be a decent supply of green and maple peas in the bin. Current bids on yellows are indicated at $9.00/bu FOB, while green pea bids are harder to find, but indicated at $9.00-$9.50/bu FOB. Maple pea bids are at $9.50/bu FOB ($10.00/bu delivered) in most cases. New crop is almost on par with old crop pricing with yellows at $8.50/bu FOB, greens at $9.00/bu FOB and maple peas at $9.50/bu. Right now, it is not looking like India will reduce the tariffs on the yellow pea side, as per reports. India’s pricing on peas has faded, so if pea pricing remains low the incentive to reduce the tariff also decreases.

Widespread rains across the prairies over the past week offer some relief for 2021 crops. Prices remain solid for flax with $23.00/bu FOB available for the product still in the bins.  Analysts believe we have seen the highs on flax for the year so take advantage of these last few buyers who have their bids elevated. New crop pricing also is steady with pricing anywhere from $16.50-$18.00/bu picked up with an act of God depending on movement timeframe and location.  Flax supplies going into the 2021/22 crop year are only anticipated to see a small increase from last year, so we can expect new crop prices to carry-on sideways. What is changing are the movement periods.  If you are looking to move some flax out of the bins shortly after harvest, then locking the movement in is just as beneficial as the price.

The Soybean market is under pressure due to improving U.S. weather conditions and above-average planting paces. Market losses were limited by a dock worker strike in Argentina during peak export season. Local soybean bids are reflecting buyer coverage and have slid to now hover around $15.00/bu picked up depending on location. Buyers are encouraging any reasonable offer to be brought forward rather than a posting a standing bid. Generally speaking, buyer attention has turned to new crop as recent rains increase the likelihood of an average crop. However, buyer inquiries for higher quality fabas have slowed, with $9.00/bu FOB farm being a reasonable target for #2 quality. A reduction in new crop dry bean acres has prompted a bit of an uptick on old crop values with some buyers.

The inevitable has happened to the barley market as rain has hit throughout most of the Prairies over the past few days. Prices for old and new crop have begun to slip, but we are still seeing some strong values. Old crop bids range between $5.90 – $6.30/bu FOB farm, while new crop sits anywhere from $4.70 – $5.10/bu FOB farm, freight dependant. We suspect old crop values to continue to slide in the near term, given the recent moisture and diminishing time until harvest. For the most part, the assumption is most buyers will work with what they have on the books for now and take more of a “hand to mouth” approach until new crop hits the bins. Now is a great time to lock in any remaining old crop and some new crop to hedge against the downside. An increase in seeded barley acres adds fuel to buyers eventually converging spot and production values and it is unlikely production values will increase. Getting some on the books now not only guarantees you a great price, but also secures quicker movement, bin space and cashflow.

Seeding in the Prairies should be wrapped up soon and timely rains have definitely started 2021 crops in the right direction. However, wheat markets in general have seen a dip since last week based on improved crop conditions. Milling wheat with 13.5% protein now trades around $7.90 to $8.00/bu delivered to plant for June/July movement. Near term bids are the strongest with further out delivery values declining. Small discounts are still seen for 12.5% wheat, with bids around $7.75 to 7.85/bu delivered for June/July. The durum market has slipped as well, now trading around $9.00/FOB in the Southeast part of Saskatchewan. The feed wheat market has softened to $7.00 to $7.50/bu FOB in much of the province. The closer you are to feedlot alley the better the prices usually are based on freight advantages.

Canaryseed markets remain unchanged despite most other commodities taking a step back this week. After a general rain event, growers who are still holding old crop or planting new crop may want to get some product on books as we aren’t sure how long these prices will hold on. We are a long way from getting the crop in the bin, but right now crop conditions are looking very favourable in most areas. New crop bids are still holding on at 33.5 cents/lb delivered to plant, or 32.5-33 cents/lb FOB farm pending freight. These contracts still include an act of God on the first 10bu/acre. If you are on the fence about new crop, sooner than later would be suggested. Old crop is still sitting at 35 cents/lb FOB farm with Summertime movement. You may be able to shorten the delivery window on a firm offer, so please let us know what you’re looking for.

Oats…now here’s a commodity that’s content to idle in place with no new changes to report pricing wise. There is some buyer interest in old crop milling oats around that $3.70/bu range picked up on the farm depending on farm location. Flipping forward to new crop, look for mid to higher range $3’s for 2-2021 movement and $4 to maybe a smidge more for delivery in the new year. On the feed side, we have buyers looking for 38lbs plus product for the feeders. We suggest giving your merchant a call with specs and location to get some pricing and movement specifics for your area. Last but not least, most areas should be off to a good start as this past weekend’s welcomed rain has hit many zones. Now, let’s bring on the warm weather and sprinkle in a few more showers to finish this crop strong!

Canola futures have continued downwards over the past week, seeing losses in all futures months. The speculative July futures sit at $873/MT, dropping far from the $922/MT we saw a week ago. The November futures, which are what most buyers are now using for physical purchasing, have fallen to $694/MT. This is compared to last week at $713/MT. The substantial rains across the prairies have no doubt had an impact on the canola market but spec fund and grower selling has also put some pressure on prices. Some late frost issues may result in reseeding in some areas of the Prairies and is something to keep an eye on moving forward.

Chickpea markets remain steady this week. The recent rain has dropped values for cereals and lentils, but the chickpea market is not having the same response. All eyes are still on India as to whether or not tariffs will be reduced and exactly how that will affect the market. Old crop bids are unchanged from last week, hovering around $0.35/lb FOB farm for a #2 large kabuli and new crop about the same. There is still demand for high damage or green chickpeas with bids ranging from $0.22-0.25/lb FOB farm. General market feel is that there is more room for an uptick in the market. When? Well, as a chickpea grower you maintain posture and wait. There is no defined timeline, but the market is more affirming that it is in the cards than not.

As the lentil crops enjoyed the rain these past few days, we cannot say the same for the markets. Old and new crop lentils have seen a slight drop in value this week. Markets are seeing pressure from improved crop conditions, selling pressure and lack of overseas interest. The rain was widespread with varying amounts, but it was enough that the market is satisfied, for the moment, that there will be production, easing the urgency to purchase both old and new crop. Producers are making new crop sales rather consistently now, trying to catch the remaining high-end bids. Pricing this week is best described as a moving target. The latest red lentil trades are taking place at 33 cents/lb FOB farm, for both old and new crop.  Large green lentils have traded as high as 40 cents in the past week, but the majority of bids are coming in at 37-38 cents/lb and getting harder to find. New crop large greens are indicated at 36-37 cents with only a couple buyers at those levels. Lastly, small green lentils are trading at 34 cents for old and new crop. Let’s hope that these markets find some stability before values dip lower.

Mustard prices remain steady so far this week with no changes yet, but as we all know significant rains have occurred in all the mustard growing areas over the past long weekend. This seems to ensure at least a decent start to the mustard crop and is a big swing from getting reports of seeding into dust just last week. Even the US planted mustard area has had some good rain as reported by growers across the border. Mustard bids are seeing yellow as high as $0.50/lb for old crop and similar values for new crop with varying delivery windows. Oriental sits at $0.35/lb for Forge & Vulcan and $0.33/lb on Cutlass for product in the bin, while new crop Forge sits at $0.35/lb & Cutlass at $0.33/lb for Sept. to July movement. Brown is bid at $0.40-$0.41/lb on old crop with new crop as high as $0.43/lb for Sept. to July pickup. After the rain, these prices look very strong, so it may be a good idea to get some product locked up. Shorter pickup times are available on new crop bids with discounts for December and March deadlines.

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.


Rayglen Market Comments – May 19, 2021

Chickpea markets were a little erratic this week with a couple of buyers looking to submit offers on a US tender that closed last night. The general feel from the producer side of things is to hold and wait for the potential upside still on the horizon. Isolated rains have been helpful to many, but general moisture is not widespread. The overall consensus is that growers are not out of the woods yet regarding drought, and it will take more than a rain shower in May to reverse dry conditions. Old crop bids for #2 large Kabulis are $0.35-$0.36/lb, while the ask is $0.38-$0.39/lb FOB. New crop bids for #2 large Kabulis are $0.33-$0.34/lb with an AOG and Sept.-Dec. movement. No change has occurred with the petfood/sample market despite every buyer on the hunt for it. Depending on the day/quality/location bids range from $0.18-$0.22/lb. One thing that can be said is that the market is showing more sensitivity to chickpeas dated 2019 and older. Check your bins, confirm quality and if chickpeas are on the agenda for movement, offers are the best way to get the most out of the market right now.

While flax prices have decreased in Europe due to decent growing conditions and supply in the Black Sea region, there is still a small pool of buyers looking to buy old crop at $23/bu picked up.  New crop pricing is holding strong, ranging from $16.50-$18.00/bu picked up depending on movement, complete with an act of God. The new crop prices are expected to remain sideways as the carryover on old crop flax will be minimal. Going forward, global flax markets in the upcoming crop year will depend much more on the production out of the Black Sea region. Canadian flax carryover will be minimal, so markets will be looking to the Black Sea region to fill the gaps.  The biggest unknown is how much supply will be produced overseas.

Barley markets take a step back this week, but on the bright side we still have some blistering numbers out there for both new and old crop feed. As always, feed barley bids are area dependant and are now indicated at $6.25 – $6.75/bu FOB farm. Due to strong spot bids, carry over for 2021 should be next to nil, which seems to be helping hold up new crop values. New crop bids range anywhere from $5.00 – $5.50/bu at the bin on a straight DDC (no act of God). These are great, if not historic feed values and we urge growers not to be left wishing you would have taken the time to shovel out the corners of those flat bottom bins or signed up some production. Weather reports are indicating rain and snow for most areas of Saskatchewan over the next few days which would be welcome, should it ring true. Barley is typically a decent crop for retaining the moisture and pushing itself through. If that’s the case and values hold up, you can very easily expect it to be one of the top 3 return on investments to the farm.

Not to sound like a broken record, but not much has changed on the oat front this past week. Prices remain flat at best and when you can find a bid on milling oats, look to see pricing around $3.70/bu picked up, pending farm location. Looking forward to new crop pricing, you’ll see bids in around the high $3’s – $4/bu range with 2022 new year pricing popping up just over $4/bu for those located in Eastern Sask. If you’re sitting with feed oats in the bin, don’t hesitate to reach out with details although there haven’t been many active bids, buyers will still try to work with them. Prices have been hovering around $3.40/bu picked up on the farm on heavy product in select locations.

The pea market remains quiet as seeding is well under way and even wrapping up in a few areas. Chinese & other demand has pulled back for the moment, seeming to be covered well enough for the first part of the 2021/2022 marketing year. Old crop and new crop pricing have had no change from last week. Yellow peas are at $9 – 9.50/bu FOB, with new crop prices posted at $8.50/bu – 9.00/bu FOB. Green peas had a few trades at $9.50/bu FOB with new crop still quiet at $9.00/bu. The maple pea market remains stagnant at $9.50/bu FOB for both old and new crop. If our yields do get reduced due to poor moisture conditions, we could expect prices to recover. However, this will not happen overnight.

Canaryseed is strong once again this week, but with rain in the forecast for some key growing areas, we may see things soften. New crop is trading at 0.33c/lb FOB farm in all areas while old crop still trickles in at $0.35/lb on farm in many locations. Production contracts contain an act of God on 10bu/acre, which is a great starting point for taking some risk of the table. A general rain event this week is likely to determine market direction next week, but that is assuming forecasts are correct. If you are on the fence about booking, now may be time to hedge your bets before the rain comes. Offers are always a great way to advertise your grain and get top dollar, so if you have a target in mind call to post one up.

‘Tis the season for crop condition scores, planting progress and weather forecasts to drive markets. Global production estimates are cautiously increasing and encouraging weather forecasts are being circulated. That said, the North American crop is a long way from the bin and markets will remain manic for a bit yet. As for today, markets are off and technical selloffs rule the day. Local soybean bids are reflecting buyer coverage and have slid to now hover around $15.00/bu picked up depending on location. Buyers are encouraging any reasonable offer to be brought forward rather than posting a standing bid. Buyer’s inquiries for higher quality fabas have slowed.  However, $9 .00/bu FOB farm is a reasonable target for #2 quality. Dry bean acres are forecast to decrease for 2021. Shrinking new crop acres has prompted a bit of an uptick on old crop values with some buyers.

After a big dip to end last week, July canola futures have rebounded to be about the same, sitting at $922/MT. Buyers have turned their eyes to the November futures for trading now, which have taken a bit of a blow this week. They currently sit at $713.20/MT, down from $754/MT at the same time last week. On farm bids have taken a significant hit the past couple weeks as we near the transition to new crop.  So, if you’re holding onto some canola still, now might be the time to pull the trigger. Forecasts for much needed rain across Western Canada played a roll in the recent weakness as well as strength in the Canadian dollar. Whether the forecasted rain will be enough to kickstart a much-needed canola crop is another question and one we will find out in due time.

Mustard prices are still looking great this week with lots of buyers showing interest in old and new crop. The yellow market has shown the most interest with old and new crop bids up to $0.50/lb at the yard for #1 quality yellow, which is a number that we have not seen with yellow in quite some time. Dryness is still the biggest issue but maybe some of those worries will be put aside with rain in the nearby forecast; time will tell. Prices on oriental and brown remain at similar levels to the strong values we have seen recently. Brown bids on old and new crop are being shown at $0.40 or a little better in recent weeks. Oriental prices are still variety dependent with buyers paying about a 2-cent premium for Forge type at around 35 to possibly 36 cents/lb picked up on farm.

Seeding in the Prairies seems to be moving right along this week as many growers report almost being wrapped up. Wheat prices have dipped a bit over the past week with bids for 13.5% protein #1 Milling now around $8.60/bu delivered to plant for May/June movement. Lower protein wheat (12.5%) of the same spec remains at a slight discount in the range of $8.40/bu delivered for May/June. The durum market continues to be strong over the last while and has been trading at $9.50/FOB primarily down in the Southeast part of Saskatchewan. Feed wheat takes a bit of a hit this week with red futures and moisture events across the prairies.  However, bids still remain attractive and are now quoted at $7.75 to $8.25/bu FOB in much of the province. The closer you are to feedlot alley, the better bids get, but don’t hesitate to reach out from anywhere as buyers are hungry to purchase.

Lentil prices continue to clip along this week with no signs of bearishness. There is lots of chatter through the grapevine that India is considering dropping tariffs as well as enforcing the provisions of the Essential Commodities Act. This act is to ensure that there is adequate availability of essential commodities to the population. Execution of this means everyone involved with the trade of food must release their inventories. It was confirmed on the weekend that India did reduce their tariffs on Tur (Pigeons Peas), but so far, this has not affected pricing of lentils. There is a chance it may help the large green market as they are used for a substitute to Tur. A quick recap on values: spot red lentils trade at $0.36/lb FOB with new crop as high as $0.34/lb FOB with act of God. Large greens continue to trade at $0.40/lb on farm in many locations with new crop bid as high as $0.39/lb FOB farm. We wait for further news from India as it could make for interesting times in the lentil world.

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.


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