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Rayglen Market Comments November 18, 2020

Pea prices in China continue to move higher and recent reports state yellow pea bids are at their highest since 2016. China has been the dominant buyer of Canadian peas and remain to be the key player in driving/supporting this market. Current pricing on peas hasn’t fluctuated much since last week; yellow peas are $9.00/bu delivered, green peas are $10.50/bu delivered and maple peas are $10.00/bu picked up. We do have a market for Acer variety maple peas at slightly higher values, with some areas able to capture $10.50/bu on farm. Most pea movement is now pushed out into the new year, with some buyers showing delivery out until March. If you have a target price in mind or are looking to get into some new seed for next year, let your merchant know.

Wheat markets continue their sideways to lower trend this week, with not a lot of upside expected in the near future. Australia and Argentina are both harvesting wheat at the moment, reminding us – regardless of the time of the year, wheat is usually being harvested somewhere in the world, leaving supply shortages tough to come by. Canadian prices are a bit soft on the wheat side with HRS seeing bids below $7.00/bu delivered. There is the potential for higher protein product (~14%+) to capture $7.00/bu delivered to plant in some locations. Feed wheat/durum, however, are still staying strong with multiple areas seeing bids of $6.00/bu or better picked up on farm with no dockage being deducted. Milling durum is priced at $8.00/bu, to slightly higher in some areas, delivered plant.

The canaryseed market has seen a rebound this week, managing to claw its way back to $0.32/lb FOB farm for February/March movement. We are actively trading these values in most locations, so if you missed the boat on the first go-round, now is your chance to hop on board! We have also seen some options available for quicker movement at $0.30-$0.31/lb FOB the farm; strong values for those needing cash before March. Although we are seeing stronger bids this week, we don’t necessarily see it as a sign of more strength to come, but rather as buyers trying to cover some sales. If you are holding out for better values on canaryseed, targets are always an option.  Thus far, buyers aren’t interested in pushing bids higher. Our suggestion: hedge the downside. We are seeing record values right now and corrections downward usually aren’t a penny at a time.  We have not heard of a new crop price yet as of late but expect to start seeing bids in the new year.

The feed barley market remains flat this week with product consistently trading between $4.50 to $5.00/bu FOB the farm. The closer you are to Southwest Sask. and into Alberta, the better the price will be, as most product continues to head West. Although not comparable to the highs we’ve seen this year, these are still really good prices for feed barley and even malt in some cases, considering the almost nonexistent spread in value. Making some incremental sales at these levels looks to be a good play at this time.

Flax prices remain similar to last week and in some cases, growers are still able to catch $18.00/bu picked up on brown flax if movement is out to March. New crop pricing remains in the $14.00/bu FOB range.  Commercial inventories are the largest since 2014/15 with stocks rising in Thunder Bay and Vancouver. In order for the EU to maintain supplies, imports will need to be up 4% from last year according to analysts. However, the estimates of the 2020 crop are still wavering. The Black Sea Region exports were higher in September compared to the last two years, but the actual size of the Russia / Kazakh crop will provide more indication over the next couple of months. Canadian flax prices are nearly at an all time high, this is in part due to some disruption in the Black Sea Region. Whether that’s due to logistics or poorer crops is still the unknown. If the issue overseas is logistics, then there is downside risk for the Canadian flax prices. Make sure to have some flax locked in, there is too much on the table to be taken away.

Lentils continue soften with price dropping a cent or two since last week. Early reports out of Australia suggests that their lentil crop will be of good quality and decent yields. This will hinder Canadian sales into destination ports as cheaper shipping costs out of Australia become available. It also looks like the Australian market underestimated last year’s production, which on paper states Australia should be out of lentils, yet they continue to ship product. Right now, early estimation on this year’s crop is 1 million tonnes, but if forecasting is off like last year, that could go as high as 1.3 million. We suspect these reports could have something to do with prices softening the last couple of weeks. Bids today are as follows: Red lentils $0.27-$0.28/lb delivered; Large green lentils $0.35-$0.36/lb picked up; Small greens $0.30-$0.32/lb delivered.  At this time no new crop pricing has been released by any of our buyers.

Mustard demand is likely to remain fairly slow with Covid restrictions really weighing on the issue. Buyers continue to report to us that overseas demand remains very sluggish. This could change rapidly as things improve, but obviously there are issues with the pandemic ongoing. Bids today are steady sitting at $0.40/lb FOB farm for yellow with a delivery window of Dec./Jan.  Brown sits at $0.31/lb FOB for Jan./Feb. pickup and Oriental Forge sits at $0.28/lb for Jan./Feb. movement. Cutlass Oriental is sitting at $0.26/lb for the same new year shipping. New crop mustard bids have arrived so that is very exciting, and bids are strong. Please call your merchant for the latest in prices and movement. Also, seed sales are underway, we have many varieties, treated or untreated and sales include free delivered to your yard.   

Oats seem to be holding steady here this week as prices haven’t varied to much from last. Milling oat bids are maintaining around $4.00/bu delivered with movement into the new year and onwards. If you have dry and heavy feed oats, look for pricing to come in around that $2.35 – $2.70/bu range with the latter price being location specific for different buyers. Also, offers are a handy way to get the word out that you are looking to market some grain so give your Rayglen agent a call and they’ll be happy to help you out.

Soybean market remains fueled by the fusion of dry weather in South America, diminishing U.S. stocks and healthy Chinese demand. Local soybean bids now hover around $12.25-$12.50/bu picked up depending on location. Faba bean export quality bids are scarce due to a return to typical global production levels and typical trade patterns. Feed faba bids are in the range of $6.50-$7.00/bu FOB farm, location dependent. North American dry bean harvest has largely concluded, and production numbers are up. Harvest delivery pressure is beginning to subside, and some early support has come to some of the specialty classes. New crop dry bean bids are soon to be released. Contact Rayglen if you are interested in new crop.

January canola futures have done nothing but go up in the past weeks and currently sit at $569.40/MT, compared to $559/MT at time of writing last week. Solid gains, leading to highs we haven’t seen in years with soybeans and soy oil, are offering support to the canola markets. Strong technical signal and export numbers are also helping bring the January futures up to numbers we’ve only seen once in the past 5 years. There is currently no carry into the March and May futures as they both sit at $569/MT as well.

The chickpea market continues to simmer a bit this week as prices are indicated around $0.30 to maybe $0.31/lb on across the board sizing. For larger sized product, over 80% 9mm, we have some buyers that will pay a few cents premium, but bids, for the most part, are not heating up with just very little buyer interest to date. It’s possible that part of the lackluster market interest is the small sized product that we have produced this year. It just does not draw the same interest from the end users as larger caliber product does. If we see some slowdown in the Russian export market, which is expected due to a supposedly smaller crop, we might see renewed overseas interest in Canadian origin chickpeas. The hottest thing in the chickpea market right now is increased interest in sample or feed quality product. We’ve seen bids in the low twenties, $0.23 to $0.24 range, being firmed up in recent weeks.

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.


Rayglen Market Comments November 12, 2020

Flax prices have stabilized for the week and although there is still the odd opportunity to capture $18.00/bu picked up on farm for brown flax, many buyers have reverted to $18.00/bu delivered. New crop brown flax is hit and miss at $14.00/bu picked up with an act of God this week and we suggest growers use firm targets to try and secure a contract. Spot yellow flax values have backed off to the $20.00/bu FOB range, while new crop bids remain pretty slow. If reports that the Black Sea Region supplies are bottled necked due to logistics, then we could see some downside on flax pricing once those issues are sorted. Under Kazakh law, sellers are able to declare non delivery of their product and just pay the interest charges.  As the market rallies there, sellers are taking that route. With smaller Canadian supplies, we could also run into demand rationing from buyers if prices continue at these levels.

Mustard is basically at the same levels it has been for a while and perhaps as time grinds on, prices will start to edge up slightly. It feels as if it should move up with the reduced acres, but time will tell as offshore shipping remains fairly stagnant as reported by buyers. Bids today are steady sitting at $0.40/lb FOB farm for yellow with a delivery window of Dec./Jan.  Brown sits at $0.31/lb FOB for Jan./Feb. pickup and Oriental Forge sits at $0.28/lb for Jan./Feb. movement. Cutlass Oriental variety remains discounted at $0.26/lb for the same new year shipping. It may be time to look at new crop mustard. New crop contracts and seed have started to trade, please call your merchant for the latest in prices.

The pea market had a bit of excitement this week when greens jumped to $11.00/bu delivered for a short one-day rally but have since softened back down to $10.50/bu delivered. Yellow peas had a few options at $8.75 – 9.00/bu delivered, also showing a bit of life. Maple peas remain stable at $10.00 – $10.50/bu picked up. Reports suggest the bulk of our pea exports are destined for China with much smaller quantities being shipped to Bangladesh and Cuba. Although it is still early, India’s planting for the 2020/2021 pea crop is reported to be 11% ahead of the 5-year average. New crop values have yet to surface for the 2021/2022 marketing year, but if you have a target price in mind let your merchant know.

Canaryseed markets remain unchanged this week with bids ranging in the $0.30-$0.31/lb range FOB farm, pending location and delivery window. For now, it seems the highs of $0.32/lb are no longer attainable and demand has slowed slightly, but grower targets are always an option to try and catch those values. News around this commodity remains scarce and seemingly underreported, so for now, we don’t have too much to say other than values are in the high end of trading ranges compared to only a few short months ago; hedging the downside risk on some of your product is likely not the worst play right now.

Chickpea markets are showing some activity with a little bit of trade this week. The latter part of last week had buzz for #2 or better Kabuli’s with a $0.33/lb FOB farm bid, but this was a “fill and kill” situation that was short lived. We are still seeing strong interest in chickpeas grading below a #2 this week as well. Bids range from $0.23/lb to $0.25/lb picked up on the farm for movement in the next 60 days. No discussion yet of 2021/22 values as buyers are still trying to figure out what is in the bins from previous production years. If you’re in the market to switch seed or want to discuss possible marketing opportunities, please call the office.

There seems to be a little upside starting to trend on milling oats right now as prices have turned more positive. Though that positivity is stretching more into the new year with little upside gain for nearby movement in 2020. Look for milling oat values in that $4.00 – $4.25/bu delivered into Manitoba. Call your Rayglen agent for location specifics and/or FOB farm bids as there may be a price perk for your area. Not too much has changed in the way of feed prices as bids still seems to be hovering around that $2.25-$2.50/bu picked up on the farm.

Lentils markets seem as though they have hit their tipping point this week. Large green and red lentils have slipped slightly in value, while small greens seem to be stuck at the $0.32/lb delivered mark.  Large green lentils lost a cent or two with only a hand full of our buyers now quoting $0.37/lb delivered and some with bids as low as $0.35/lb delivered. Red lentils saw a penny loss this week as well with $0.29/lb delivered looking like the high. Similarly, to large greens, reds are seeing lower prices being bid out there, so it may be a good time to catch these values while you still can. Lower grade lentils (#3/sample/feed) are being bid at $0.25/lb, an attractive value for growers with that quality on farm.

The wheat market is holding consistently as of late with feed bids still catching $6.00/bu FOB farm in most areas of Saskatchewan. Movement in many cases is in the first months of 2021 but with the standard slowdown at Christmas time, 2021 is just around the corner. Prices on milling wheat are showing only around $6.50 to $6.70 delivered to plant for early in 2021 for many buyers right now so there is obviously not much of a push beyond the feed price there. Those milling bids would be on a #1 CWRS with min 13.5% pro and a $0.30 discount on 12.5% protein quality product. The world wheat stocks remain decently supplied even with the most recent USDA showing slightly lower US numbers. Durum prices are carrying a fair premium to milling wheat these days with most areas showing a #1, 13.5% CWAD at $8/bu or a little stronger delivered in. 

Feed barley markets has levelled off after a decline over the past couple of weeks. Prices have settled in around the $4.40-$5/bu FOB farm range for movement into the new year. The biggest factor in price is location, with the best pricing being closer to southern Alberta. While this is down from the highs we were seeing a month ago, these are still very profitable numbers that are worth taking a look at.

Canola markets have had a strong week with the January futures reaching another new high for the year at $559.90/MT at time of writing. This compares to last week, when they were as low as $535/MT. Much of this strength came from Tuesday’s USDA report cutting soybean production by 98 million bushels, thus tightening stocks even more so than before. There’s a small carry into the March futures as well, which currently sit at $563.20/MT.

Profit-taking and resurging COVID-19 concerns are weighing on futures. Losses are limited by strong Chinese demand, dry weather in Brazil, and a shrinking U.S. crop in 2020. Local soybean bids now hover around $12.25/bu picked up depending on location. Pending Australian faba bean competition is looming over Canadian export prospects and resulting in scarce export bids. Feed faba bids are in the range of $6-$7/bu FOB farm, location dependent. North American dry bean harvest has largely concluded, and production numbers are up. Harvest delivery pressure is beginning to subside, and some early support has come to some of the specialty classes. New crop dry bean bids are soon to be released. Contact Rayglen if you are interested in new crop programs.

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.


Rayglen Market Comments November 4, 2020

A bit of an outlier in chickpeas bids this week as one of our buyers puts out a $0.33/lb FOB farm for #2 chickpeas with min. 30% 9mm sizing. Given the recent reports out of Sask Ag that this year’s production was over 95% quality of #2 or better, this bid smells of opportunity. There is no indication that the rest of the buy side will follow suit or how long it will last, but it is good to see some fiscal uptick congruent with interest in chickpeas again. If you are thinking about changing up seed or want to talk 2021/22 crop give us a call.

The oat market is steady again this week, with prices between $4.00-$4.25/bu delivered into Manitoba depending on movement. Prices reverting back to Central Sask for #2CW are closer to $3.30-$3.40/bu,  picked up for movement out to March. Feed oat prices are hit and miss but remain to be in the $2.25-$2.50/bu FOB range. There are some opportunities to sell at stronger values if the feed oats weigh up. With most buyers long on movement, it could be a good time to start to look at those values. As more time passes, the movement continues to go into summer months.

Flax bids have been wild over the last month, but values seem to have settled this week. For those who are willing to work with a pushed-out movement window, $18.00/bu FOB is available; for those looking for nearby movement, that price is closer to $17.00/bu picked up. In either case, flax prices are at record levels and should be considered by growers. Recently, there have been flax exports heading to Europe and the US, but we haven’t seen an updated USDA flax acreage report since the end of June, which could shift things. Analysts are expecting Chinese flax demand to be strong for the remainder of 2020/21, while the Black Sea Region’s flax prices are rallying as well. There has also been reports of a bottleneck of shipments moving from Kazakh into China. This, along with their farmers holding back flax, could explain some of the recent price surges we have seen. If the situation with the bottleneck corrects itself overseas, there will be flax supplies waiting in the wings.

Over the past couple weeks, feed barley markets have been softening and trading has slowed. Bids have come down about 10 to 25 cents/bu across most of the Prairies, but even with this price correction values are still attractive and should be considered. Currently, feed barley is quoted around $5.00/bu FOB the farm in Southwest Sask and closer to $4.30/bu in Northeast Sask, confirming the age old saying: “the closer you are to feedlot alley, the better”. The price of feed barley could bounce back to previous highs, but with what looks to be ample supply and delivery pushed into winter months already, it may be a stretch. Comparing these values to the malt market, we still see minimal to no spread as malt bids remain around $5.00/bu delivered, with movement well into the new year. Demand on malt is very slow at best and growers still may decide to ship malt quality into feed markets.

 The pea market has not seen many changes since last week with yellows still holding strong at $8.75/bu and greens at $10.00/bu, both delivered plant. As we near $9.00/bu on yellow peas, growers may want to take a look at marketing some product; historically, yellow pea bids don’t get much better.  Green peas at $10.00/bu delivered may warrant holding on for a bit longer, but also not a bad starting point to make some hedges. Moving to specialty peas, maples remain strong, trading at $10.00 – 10.50/bu picked up on farm. In most cases, peas harvested this year were of good quality and the majority of product we see has been making #2 quality. We do have some movement options for sample/feed peas if you do have off spec. Higher bleach green peas have been priced around $7.00 – 8.00/bu picked up. New crop values haven’t surfaced quite yet, if you have a target price in mind let your merchant know.

 Soybean futures have been buoyed by a rally in palm oil and continued positive Chinese export numbers. Local soybean bids now hover around $11.50-$12.00/bu picked up depending on location. Increased export competition with Australia seems to be holding back the Canadian export faba market. Buyers are taking a “wait and see” approach with export bids being scarce. Feed faba bids are in the range of $6.00-$7.00/bu FOB farm location dependent. Dry bean harvest is largely wrapped up across North America. With that brings a forecast of increased production and bid pressure on some classes dependent on production levels. That said, decent demand exists across the sector if producers find themselves looking for buyers for additional production. New crop dry bean bids are soon to be released. Contact Rayglen if you are interested in new crop.

As we get into November, our attention transitions to the January futures. After an up and down week, the January futures are sitting almost exactly equal to the same time a week ago at $544.80/MT. This is mostly due to some strength in vegetable oil markets around the world pushing the futures price up Tuesday and Wednesday. The price was held down a little bit due to strength in the Canadian dollar this week. There is a slight carry in the market out to the March futures which sit at $549/MT at time of writing.

The canary seed prices have tabled off a little this past week or two. Buyer bids remain at $0.30-$0.31/lb range FOB farm depending on the movement window you prefer (the latter being into the new year). For a short period, we had been making a few trades into mid-winter timelines at $0.32 FOB farm, but those values do not seem attainable today. If you have a price in mind over market value, we are always taking targets to post if the market happens to move in your direction. One piece of info. that came across our desks as of late, is to note that as of today, the CGC has not officially brought canary seed sales under the coverage on the bonding system and at this time.   Sales you make on canary are not covered by the CGC. The CGC is working to extend coverage to canary but it appears adding a new crop is not a turn-key operation and this is still outstanding work.

Lentils markets have gone quiet this past week, with some buyers even lowering their bids by a cent. The India and Turkish markets have both seen lentil prices drop as well. This is the opposite of what most people expected after India extended the lower tariffs until the end of December. The reality of the tariff extension is that the cargo that is already on route to India will now not face the chance of an increased tariff before it reaches port. To date, about 30% of this year’s crop has been shipped so, this has likely given India enough product to cover them until the Australian crop is harvested.  Then, once March hits, the India crop will start to come off and local supply will be available. If both countries get an average crop the red lentil market could remain in the $0.26/lb to $0.30/lb range until at least spring.  Prices this week are as follows: red lentils – $0.29-$0.30/lb delivered; large green lentils – $0.37/lb-$0.38/lb delivered; small green lentils – $0.30-$0.32/lb delivered.

China’s feud with Australia may end up affecting more than just barley. There is some noise out and about that China may add wheat to their banned list. If so, the doors will open to Canada, the US and France to fill the void, which would definitely have an impact on pricing. Feed wheat prices continue to hover around $6.25/bu picked up in the yard, with better pricing the closer you get to the feedlots and detract the further East you go. On #1 13.5% pro HRSW, pricing is hovering around $6.45/bu delivered into Central Sask, with roughly a $0.28/bu spread on 12.5% protein. If you push out to Spring and Summer, you will be right around the $7.00/bu range with similar spread on 12.5% protein sitting around that $6.70/bu range.

Mustard continues to stay range bound this week. Slow offshore shipping continues to be reported by buyers and we are not expecting much change in the near term. Bids today are steady sitting at $0.40/lb FOB farm for yellow with a delivery window of Dec./Jan.  Brown sits at $0.31/lb FOB for Jan./Feb. pickup and Oriental Forge sits at $0.28 cents for Jan./Feb. movement. Oriental Cutlass variety remains at $0.26/lb for the same new year shipping. New crop mustard and seed has started to trade, please call your merchant for the latest in prices.

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.

 


Rayglen Market Comments October 28, 2020

Feed barley prices are starting to show signs of weakness as we see bids back off a bit this week. So far, we haven’t seen any drastic drops in value, rather a small 5-15 cent/bu decline pending area. Bids are still very attractive throughout the prairies and many areas are still able to hit the $5.00 + FOB farm mark. Strongest bids are still seen in SW Sask and Eastern AB as the majority of product is destined for feedlot alley. Does this mean we’ve hit our highs for the year? Tough to say, but this may be a sign that growers need to take advantage of these historically high values while they’re still available and get some product hedged; feed or malt quality. On that note, malt remains to be quoted around that $5.00/bu delivered range with movement pushed out well into the new year. Thus, many producers have opted to sell into the feed market because of quicker movement and price similarity; something we would suggest doing as well, based on the very slow demand.

The pea market has held on to their favorable values as we progress into this week. Yellow peas are trading at $8.75/bu delivered which translates back to $8.00 – 8.25/bu FOB farm values. Reading through reports and looking back at previous yellow pea highs, we are trading at values that aren’t regularly seen. Yellows peas have hit $9.00/bu less than 10% of the time over the past 10 years. Therefore, it might be a good opportunity to consider some yellow pea sales. Maple peas are still seeing $10.00/bu FOB, with the acer variety holding a slight premium of $11.00/bu delivered into Northwest/ Central Sask. Green peas have also moved up slightly to $9.50/bu FOB or $10.00/bu delivered into plant. With bids holding strong in yellow peas it is a confirmation that China is still steady buying product. The strength in green peas may have more to do with farmers not moving as much at previous values.

Lentils had another steady week in the markets with little change in pricing. Reds have been the quietest as the markets wait to see what India’s next tariff move will be. The green lentil market remains strong with #2 large green lentils trading at the 37-38 cents delivered mark in many cases. Small greens are still being bid at the 30 cent FOB farm range, in light trade. The biggest lentil price this week is for feed or sample lentils at 25 cent FOB farm and growers with this quality may want to consider sales. Touching on last week’s report, we mentioned we might see some tariff changes come from Turkey as well, but so far, there are no signs of this and thus no major market moves to report.   

Canary seed tonnage looks to be up from last year’s production levels, ranging in that 190,000 – 200,000mt, up roughly 15,000 – 25,000mt, with the “needle” always seeming to move week to week. Right now, pricing seems to be holding steady with only a slight pull back to be trading at $0.31/lb picked up on the farm, still a historically strong price. Price support for this commodity continues to hold as other bird seed ingredients, right now, are strongly priced. If we’re looking outside of Canada, we’ve started to hear some chatter about Argentina’s canary crop; acres look to be up over last year, but still statistically on the lower side of past years. The expectation is that canary exports will continue to stay low for Argentina until harvest numbers come in which should be late 2020. It’s worth keeping an eye on this market moving forward.

Stronger bids on flax have encouraged farmer selling this week – and they should. Currently, we are seeing bids hit $17.25/bu up to the highs of $18.00/bu picked up on farm for brown varieties. Movement varies and seems to be the main determinate of value, but in any case, growers should strongly consider making sales. Historically, bids are approaching rare levels and reaching 10-year highs. We suspect there will be a tipping point where end-users say, “That’s too much!” and if there is a volatile correction, these markets can quickly turn. Another risk is that at these values more demand could be pushed back into the Black Sea Region, even if the crops there were reported as smaller. Moving to yellow flax, bids are also strong, and we’ve seen some areas reach a high of $20.00/bu FOB on firm target. New crop values on brown flax are starting to emerge at $14.00/bu FOB, but so far yellow remains quiet. If you don’t have any flax on the books yet, now is the time.

Commercial chickpea markets maintain tone this week, but call volume has been up on potential sales more so than previous weeks. This feels like patience is wearing thin on the potential “run” of the market but thus far has not generated any sales. Strong values in other markets are where growers will likely sell for cash and continue to hold back on product that moves in cents per lb vs cents per bushel. Feed and sample quality chickpea have seen increased strength with bids at $0.20-$0.22/lb FOB farm for Nov.-Jan. movement and plenty of room for buying. The issue is finding that product, as it seems to be in short demand. If you have anything under a #2 of any size and quality in the bin, call to chat about potential marketing ideas.

Mustard stayed flat this week as far as price goes, so let’s talk a little about the quality that Sask Ag has reported. The tremendous harvest conditions this year certainly translated to remarkable quality. They say that 89% of production was a number 1 Canada, compared to the 10-year average of 76%. They also state 10% is grading number 2 Canada, leaving very little for a #3 or worse. These are surprising numbers and we shall see how accurate they are in the near future. Bids today are sitting at $0.40/lb FOB farm for yellow for different shipping periods, possibly as early as November. Brown sits at 31 cents/lb for Jan./Feb. pickup. Oriental Forge sits at 28 cents for Jan./Feb. movement, while Cutlass remains at 26 cents for the same new year shipping, both FOB farm. New crop mustard and seed has traded already, please call your merchant for the latest in prices.

Wheat pricing has pulled back a bit as the US, Argentina and the Black Sea Region have seen some precipitation on what was an ever-increasing lack of moisture. As such feed prices have slipped a bit to around that $6.25/bu FOB farm range, give or take depending on how close you are to the feed lot alley. On the milling side, a #1 CWRS is priced at $6.52/bu delivered into Saskatoon for January movement on a 13.5% protein. If you are sitting with 12.5% protein pull the price back to around $0.27/bu for the same movement. Keep an eye out moving forward for price pops to get some incremental selling in.

Chinese demand has largely fueled the recent run-up in prices, but dry planting conditions in Brazil and economic turmoil in Argentina have also contributed to higher soybean prices. That said, rains earlier this week helped to recover scarce soil moisture levels in Brazil. Demand concerns from China also led soybean futures lower this morning. Local soybean bids now hover around $11.50-$12.00/bu picked up depending on location. Fabas bids are aligned with long term trading values at $7.50 -$8.00/bu for #2 export quality. The higher end of the faba price range seems to be reserved for high tannin varieties. Increased global competition and the reestablishment of typical global trade patterns will regulate our local faba bids. Escalating global pulse markets have latched onto fabas and have offered some recent support and buyer interest. North American dry bean harvest is approaching completion. Common classes of beans are expecting large production increases this year, whereas specialty beans will see tighter production volumes. Dry bean demand still exists, and buyers will be interested in purchasing any new crop contract overages.  New crop dry programs will be released soon. Please contact Rayglen if interested.

After a big jump up at the end of last week, canola futures have taken a step back throughout the start of this week. At time of writing, the November futures sit at $533/MT, which compares to $542/MT at the same time one week ago. Prices were as low as $510/MT today but recovered through the late morning and afternoon. Much of this drop is associated to worries of Covid cases increasing and the threat of the economy slowing down again. Spec funds took profits to limit their risks of losses in the near term.

Oats prices have been a little more active with a few buyers opening a bit of space. Most bids on a #2 milling oat are still sub $3/bu as a FOB farm price. If your farm is on the East side of Sask. we should be able to find some buyer interest at $3/bu in the yard for movement in the next couple months at this point. Feed prices remain around $2.50/bu on farm in most areas of the province, as long as the bushel weight is not too light. As a reminder that you have all have likely heard, most milling oats buyers will not touch any product that has been sprayed with glyphosate.  The list of buyers with this restriction grows stronger so, if you have not already heard this, make sure you take this into account with your farming practices.

 


Rayglen Market Comments October 21, 2020

Flax bids remain strong with brown flax sitting at $16.50/bu picked up and yellow at $18.50/bu FOB. The latest yield reports are unchanged from September with 25bu/acre as the average. These bids have encouraged some farmer selling and traded volumes have picked up as of late. Year to date deliveries, according to analysts, are at 78,000 tonnes compared to 19,000 tonnes last year. This rapid start could mean tighter supplies later in 2020/21. Reports suggest the Kazakh flax crop is not as damaged as expected and inventories for this month were reported 20% higher than a year ago, so the Black Sea’s supply may not be the concern that is driving these prices higher. However, there is still a rally in Chinese flax prices. The big question is, how high will Canadian prices go? Keeping in mind that with the new reports coming out of the Black Sea region, these higher Canadian prices could push more demand back to Russia and Kazakhstan.

Feed wheat prices have been gaining in value over the last while and are now trading up to $6.50/bushel FOB farm. Recently, there hasn’t been a lot of farmer selling on feed wheat side, but these new and improved bids may push some lower protein and/or quality milling wheat into the market. The closer you are to feed lot alley the better chance you have of capturing that $6.50/bu range, but other areas have seen strong bids as well. There is a lot of uncertainty in Russia and the USA for next year’s production due to dry soil conditions and it seems as though some of todays bids are reflecting this. Milling #1 CWRS with min 13.5 % protein ranges from $6.70/bu (Jan 2021) to $7.15/bu (Jul 2021) delivered plant in the Saskatoon area. Lower protein (min 12.5%) #1 CWRS ranges between $6.40/bu-$6.90/bu delivered plant; again, higher values seen for summer months. That being said, we do have a small push for nearby product at $6.98/bu (min 13.5% pro) and $6.69/bu delivered (min 12.5% pro) for Dec. 2020.

The pea market continues to show more strength as this week progresses. Yellow peas have bumped up to $8.00/bu FOB farm, while maple peas now trade at $9.00 – 10.00/bu picked up. Green peas remain a bit quieter in comparison, at $9.00 – 9.25/bu picked up. Looking over the last 4 years at yellow peas, $8.00/bu is within the top 1/3rd of values we’ve traded, and growers should consider making incremental sales at these levels. As per most of our conversations over the past month, we are always touching on price destination – where is it headed? As of right now, China is buying quite steadily, but what happens if they decide to pull the plug? It may be a good idea to get some sales on the book and take some risk off the table, particularly on the yellow pea side.

The glass ceiling has been broken! Canary seed pricing has hit $0.32/lb picked up on the farm for Jan/Feb movement. Pricing pick up is two-fold right now: first, we’ve heard production amounts aren’t quite where they were anticipated to be; roughly half of what was expected. Secondly, underreporting may be catching up to this commodity as those random bins full of stock that seemed to pop up here, there and everywhere, have dwindled down quite dramatically. This is one commodity worth keeping your eye on moving forward.

Lentils remain stable again this week, with Large greens leading the pack followed by small greens and reds in third place. After last week’s announcement of a smaller lentil crop buyers seem to be mostly concerned with what is available for large green lentils. Supply concerns along with increasing Tur price in India could have large green lentils continuing to strengthen near term. Following suit, medium and small green lentils are trending upward as well. Reds remain stable at 27-28 cent range, but with the uncertainty of what India will do with the tariff, we expect that market to remain quite for another week or so longer.  Another interesting development that may impact red lentils is that Turkey reduced tariffs on durum this morning so we will be keeping a close eye on the situation to see if they reduce their lentil tariffs as well. If all countries hold steady on tariffs expect slow increase in red prices but if they decrease, watch for that market to gain some strength.

Despite a huge spread of 2020 seeded acres between Statscan (24% decline) vs Sk Crop Insurance (46% decline) conventional chickpea markets remain quite for another week. The demand for feed and sample quality has picked up though and bids have jumped a bit. Last trade on the books was $0.17/lb FOB farm for sample quality and buyers are looking for more. #2 kabuli bids are $0.27-$0.28/lb FOB farm for Nov-Dec movement and $0.30/lb FOB farm for Jan 2021. No talk of new crop bids for 2021/22 year at this point but feel free to call if you want to discuss possibilities.

Canola futures are up again this week. October basis levels of -35 translate to $11.65/bu delivered to elevator with carry across the board. Prices breech $12/bu in December and hold there till July 2021. Canadian Grain Commission reported Canadian exports are up 50% from the same time last year. The demand seems to be a push from the export market and while the rest of 2020 looks to be satisfied with supply, January and on still show strong demand and decent carry to shake those bushels loose.

Continued Chinese demand and dry planting conditions in Brazil continue to support soybean prices. US soybean harvest is estimated at 75% complete. Local soybean bids now hover around $11.50-$12.00/bu picked up depending on location. Fabas bids are aligned with long term trading values at $7.50 -$8.00/bu for #2 export quality. The higher end of the faba price range seems to be reserved for high tannin varieties. Increased global competition and the reestablishment of typical global trade patterns will regulate our local faba bids. That said, we are getting buyer inquiries on both current and new crop export quality fabas. North American dry bean harvest is approaching completion. Common classes of beans are expecting large production increases this year, whereas specialty beans will see tighter production volumes. Dry bean demand still exists, and buyers will be interested in purchasing any new crop contract overages.  New crop dry programs will be released soon. Please contact Rayglen if interested.

Mustard demand seems to be the talk of the market and remains very slow, especially from the EU. Recent reports suggest we may also be losing market share to Russian markets. We are uncertain about their crop yet, but if demand is an indicator maybe it’s not going to be too much of an issue. Is this market share issue a long term concern? We shall see as time goes on into the winter. Bids today are sitting at $0.40/lb FOB farm for yellow for different shipping periods, possibly as early as November. Brown sits at 31 cents/lb for Jan/Feb pickup. Oriental Forge sits at 28 cents for Jan/Feb movement and cutlass is at 26 cents for the same new year shipping, both FOB farm. New crop mustard and seed has traded already, please call your merchant for the latest in prices.

The oats market remains relatively quiet on the pricing side, while, for the most part, buyers look to purchase product into the new year. We have a few buyers posting bids delivered out into Manitoba on a #2 milling oat at $3.70 to $4.00/bu for spring and summer months. Other options are available for Saskatchewan destinations, but delivered plant values are lower. If you are looking for a FOB farm price we can work that back for you and see which option will pencil out better in the end. The odd opportunity remains for shipment near term at a discount. Feed prices on the oats seem to have settled in at $2.25 to $2.50/bu range on farm, but there has been the occasional opportunity to sell heavy feed oats at stronger levels. 

Barley continues to reach new highs as the weeks progress. Strong export and domestic markets have bids up to $5.25/bu FOB farm for feed in select locations. Those unable to hit the highs will still see values in the $4.75-$5.00/bu range FOB farm range. Strongest bids remain to be seen in SE AB and SW SK, but again bids outside those areas are attractive, so make sure to touch base with your merchant. Malt bids are sparse and maintain a very narrow premium to feed bids, thus many producers are opting to sell feed. Casual reports indicate malt bids are near $5.00/bu delivered with small variety specific premiums.

 


Rayglen Market Comments – October 14, 2020

Flax prices are up slightly from last week, with some buyers showing bids at $16.50/bu FOB on brown varieties and up to $18.00/bu FOB on yellow. For the most part, bids are pushed into the new year for those values, but the odd trade is being done for Nov/Dec. Buyers have had some aggressive bids to meet export sales and with the low carry-over, 2020/21 supplies are projected to be tight again going forward. There are some unanswered questions about the size of the Russian / Kazakh crop, but for the time being, the rally in prices overseas has stalled out as the end of harvest season approaches. With these early strength in prices, we know that there is something happening in the market, but no one is reporting an actual disaster anywhere.

Stability in a market would typically be a good thing, but when talking chickpeas, we are all on the edge of our seats waiting for something to happen. News out of Argentina give initial reports of issues with the quality of the chickpea harvest. They are still a few weeks away from harvest, but this does give the ray of hope everyone is waiting for. Despite the uncertainty there is one thing that rings true, growers have waited this long and will continue to wait before moving chickpeas below their target prices. While buyers are more interested in purchasing, the bids remain the same. Jan-Feb bids for #2 Kabuli’s hit $0.30/lb FOB farm, but nearby remains $0.27-$0.28/lb FOB farm. Sample/feed bids at $0.14/lb FOB farm.

The yellow and maple pea market had a few prices bumps this week. Yellows saw bids up to $8.25/bu delivered to a couple areas within Saskatchewan, while maple peas traded at $9.00/bu picked up for movement into the new year. Green peas remain stable at $9.00/bu picked, but there is less grower interest at this price point and fewer trades being done. Right now, most of our export interest has been coming from China, which has been the major supporter in yellow pea bids. As farmers becoming more bullish, we may also see bids firm up into the new year as bin doors remain closed. As per reports, India still has not been a big player in the market, therefore, if anything changes and they start looking to import again, we can only expect the pea market to become more bullish. On the other hand, should India remain a non-player and China decides to step back, we could see values fall.

The oats market has been fairly quiet as of late as buyers have been mostly bought up in the nearby windows. We have a few buyers posting bids delivered out into Manitoba on a #2 milling oat at $3.70 to $3.80/bu into spring and summer months. If you are looking for a FOB farm price we can work that back for you, just touch base with your favorite merchant. If you have milling oats and want to move them this fall, we do have some options, but the prices likely work back to $2.60 to $2.95/bu range on farm pending location. Feed prices on the oats seem to have settled in at $2.25 to $2.50/bu range on farm but there has been the occasional opportunity to sell heavy feed oats at stronger levels. 

Canary seed continues to plant its flag and remain firmly entrenched, trading sideways again this week. That being said, most will take trading sideways at $0.30 – $0.31c/lb as a win on a commodity that historically bangs its head on the ceiling at those levels. On the export side, things have been quiet these last couple months as inventory was on the lighter side and product wasn’t off yet. Though, we may start to see export numbers creep up a bit as product is now in the bins and the price remains supported. There may be room to give on pricing moving forward, but at the same time the canary seed market can also be pretty finicky and cool down in a hurry when quotas are meet.

Planting delays in Brazil due to dry weather and labor disputes at Argentina crush plants has offered more strength to the soybean complex. US soybean harvest is well underway and could wrap up in early September if good harvest weather continues to hold. Local soybean bids now hover around $11.00-$11.50/bu picked up depending on location. Fabas bids are aligned with long term trading values at $7.50 -$8.00/bu for #2 export quality. Increased global competition and the reestablishment of typical global trade patterns will regulate our local faba bids. North American dry bean harvest is approaching completion. Common classes of beans are expecting large production increase this year, whereas specialty beans will see tighter production volumes. Dry bean demand still exists, and buyers will be interested in purchasing any new crop contract overages.  

Overall barley production and quality is a positive “glass half-full” situation this year, with most producers giving favorable reports for both. Feed barley bids are quite strong for this time of season and bids are plus/minus $5/bu FOB farm in SE AB and SW SK. Values start to drift closer to $4.50/bu FOB farm as you move east further away from feedlot alley. Malt bids are sparse and maintain a very narrow premium to feed bids, thus many producers are opting to sell feed. Casual reports indicate malt bids are near $5.00/bu delivered with small variety specific premiums.

Lentils remain solid this week as all varieties and colours either hold their value or see slight increases. Reds seem to have settled in between that 27 cent and 28 cent mark and likely won’t see much change until we hear what India is going to do with tariffs at the end of the month. Green lentils on the other hand have strengthened slightly with #2 large greens at 36 cents FOB farm for Nov/ Dec movement. Small greens also seen an uptick and are trading as high as 31 cents picked up in some cases. The Saskatchewan crop report states this year’s lentil crop yielded 1487lbs/acre compared to 1413lbs/acre last year and harvest is 100% complete compared to only 93% the year prior. The report did not say what this year’s grade breakdown was for the lentils but based on good harvest conditions and what we’ve seen so far, majority will likely be #1/#2 grade.

Wheat prices have continued to gain strength this week as some dryness in the US and Russia causes some concerns. In the Black sea, wheat prices continue to climb despite last year’s crop showing strong yield. This all comes after the USDA stayed neutral on wheat ending stocks in their latest report. Milling wheat is trading locally around the $6.75-$7/bu delivered range. On the feed side of the market, bids have gained strength and range from $5.50-$6/bushel FOB farm depending on location and movement timeframe.

November canola futures sit at $526/MT at time of writing. This is up slightly from the same time last week when they were at $525/MT. There was very little fluctuation in price over the past week, despite the USDA report coming out last Friday and dropping expected soybean acres slightly. There is a bit of carry into the January futures, which sit at $533/MT today. The next big report for Western Canada will be the StatsCan production report on December 3rd. That will play a large role in which way this market heads moving forward.

Once again, mustard prices remain in the same range as previous weeks. We have seen slight bumps over the past month on yellow and oriental, but reports continue of very sluggish shipping and demand from overseas, so bids remain basically flat for now. Bids today are sitting at $0.40/lb FOB farm for yellow; show us offers at $0.41 as they might be looked at for shipping in the new year. Brown sits at 30 to 31 cents/lb; again the 31 cents may be available for shipping further out. Oriental Forge sits at 27 to 28 cents depending on movement and cutlass is at 25 to 26 cents for new year shipping, both FOB farm. We are now creeping up on the end of October and it may be a good time to actually start new crop contracting soon. Call your merchant with offers and the latest in prices.

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.


Rayglen Market Comments – October 7, 2020

The prices for flax remain up from the usual seasonal trend with $16.00/bu FOB farm available for relatively quick movement. Yellow flax pricing is just north of $17.00/bu picked up and in light trade this week. Flax demand is expected to remain strong from China, the EU and the US and potential exports will be limited to the size of the Canadian flax crop. Earlier reports suggested that heavy rains in China had reduced their flax yields, however the majority of flax growing regions were not hit the hardest and the issue could be less serious than earlier indicated. The Black Sea region has some reports that their crop is going to be 10-15% less bountiful than last year, but far from an actual disaster. While there could be some upside to flax prices, those higher prices will likely start to discourage demand for Canadian supplies.

Chickpea bids in the last couple of weeks have strengthened for movement into the new year. Analysts question the sizing of the Canadian chickpea crop, but have little concerns about the quality. Some of the chickpea exports in the past have gone into markets that utilize lower quality, with better grades expected this year, that could also make it more difficult to export into new channels. The lower kabuli production in other countries could finally be the push that the North American crop needs to fill some of the demand. Bullish sellers will keep bids at bay even if supplies are comfortable.

This week yellow peas are getting a bit more buyer interest. Bids are being shown at $7.25 – $7.50/bu picked up on the farm with movement by the end of December. Green peas have not changed much in price from last week, with buyers still bidding at $9.00/bu picked up in the northernly areas and $8.50/bu range in the south. Western Canada has been seeing strong export pace, with more focus towards yellow peas, which is supporting the rise in current prices. Maple peas have been much slower in comparison with current pricing is at $8.25 – 9.00/bu picked up on farm. Currently, growers have slowed their selling since bin space isn’t the main topic anymore. As per reports, we can likely expect bids to become a bit more aggressive into the 2020/2021 marketing year to influence selling as farmers become more bullish.

For the most part, barley harvest is wrapped up across the Canadian prairies with the exception of a few growers just finishing up. The spread in value from feed to malt remains minimal and some growers are opting to sell their malt into feed markets for movement advantages and an available sale. Feed barley has been trading between $4.00 to $4.50/bu FOB depending on location and movement. Stronger bids are seen if you can live with shipment in the Jan-Mar 2021 period and/or the closer you are to feed lot alley in southern Alberta. As for malt barley prices, reports suggest they have been sitting around $5.00/bu delivered in on 2 row Metcalfe and Copeland varieties if you are able to find a bid. Our malt buyers remain quiet, but have indicated we may see some bids in the coming weeks.

Oat markets remain steady this week with little to no spread between milling and feed bids in many cases. Milling markets continue to be indicated at $2.50/bu FOB for a large part of Saskatchewan, with the exception of the SE corner, where we’ve seen some product bid up to $3.00/bu FOB. For comparison, feed oats, so long as they are heavy and dry, are seeing bids in the $2.50/bu range as well. We hope that the development of new markets such as the oat milk market will provide more opportunities and better values to milling quality oats, but so far that remains amiss. This year’s increased acreage and higher yields may subdue a price hike near term.

Canary continues to hold steady again this week as pricing remains firmly entrenched at $0.30 – $0.31/lb picked up on the farm with movement between Oct – Jan. If you look back on canary pricing since 2016, there is a pretty hard ceiling halting this commodities movement past $0.31/lb. Is this the year to burst that bubble? There are reports of US millet issues that have already pushed red millet past canary pricing, with white millet on the rise as well. That being said, this is a commodity that can turn on a dime as there is only so much need. Only time will tell.

Soybeans continue to rally to levels last set in 2018 based on dry conditions delaying planting in Brazil, strong exports to China and bullish expectations of Fridays (Oct 9th) USDA report. Local soybean bids now hover around $11.00/bu picked up depending on location. Fabas bids are aligned with long term trading values at $7.50 -$8.00/bu for #2 export quality. Increased global competition and the reestablishment of typical global trade patterns will regulate our local faba bids. Dry bean harvest progress varies across the North American growing areas, but generally speaking is 75% complete.  Some classes of dry bean (navy, pinto) will have sharp production increases year over year, whereas white bean production appears to be relatively flat year over year. Dry bean demand still exists, and buyers will be interested in purchasing any new crop contract overages.  

After a slight dip earlier in the week, November canola futures bounced back and are up from last week’s prices. November futures are sitting at $525.30/MT at time of writing, compared to $520/MT at the same time last week. There is a bit of carry in the market for the January futures as they are at $531.70/MT, compared to $528/MT a week ago. The strength in the market appears to be coming from palm oil and soy oil price increases as well as a decrease in farmer selling as harvest begins to wrap up in most areas.

Lentils markets continue to strengthen this fall and now many buyers are starting to show interest in small green lentils. The most common bid for small greens is 28 cents/lb picked up on farm, but we are hearing some better delivered prices depending on location in the province. Large green lentils remain strong with prices at 35 cents per pound for on farm pickup, while red lentils remain stable at 27-28 cents. Buyers are also looking for French greens and Beluga lentils with some strong indications. All in all, lentil markets seem to be strong at this time. Keep an eye on these markets as we approach the end of the month, this is when India will revisit their tariff protocol.

Wheat markets have had 3 strong days to start the week with both CWRS and CWRW gaining strength; on Monday both wheats had hit a 5 and 8 month high. Wheat markets are on the move due to weather concerns for planting in the US, Russia and Kazakhstan. Markets are also being affected by reports the USDA is expected to cut the 20-21 wheat carryover forecast, as well as world inventories are likely to shrink. On the feed side of things price are in the $5.25-5.75 depending on location. Low protein wheat was also been trading around the $6.75-$7.00/bu delivered range.

Mustard prices remain fairly flat as buyers still report slow overseas demand at this point. There has not been enough news to shift the price greatly one way or another this week, but we are seeing a slight increase in some brown and oriental for further out movement. Bids today are sitting at $0.40/lb FOB farm for yellow; show us offers at $0.41 as they might be looked at for shipping in the new year. Brown sits at 30 to 31 cents/lb; again the 31 cents may be available for shipping further out. Oriental Forge sits at 27 to 28 cents depending on movement and cutlass is at 25 to 26 cents for new year shipping, both FOB farm. Even though October is just beginning, it may be time to actually start thinking about new crop contracting soon. Call your merchant with offers.

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.

 


Rayglen Market Comments – September 30, 2020

As updated reports on production estimates keep rolling in, it looks like green pea supplies will be up about 12% this year and yellows down 2%. Looking overseas, the Black Sea region is also expected to have lower production numbers due to reduced yields; this should bring less export competition for the Canadian crop, causing prices to firm up a bit. Currently, green pea targets have hit at $9.00/bu picked up, but buyers are actively showing bids closer to $8.50/bu. Yellow peas are trading at $7.00 – 7.25/bu picked up and maple peas have been trading at $8.00 – 9.00/bu picked up, with the latter being shown in south east Sask. India has also seen increased pricing on their yellow peas with stocks being limited, as per reports. We will have to see if this will end up affecting India’s import tariffs or not.

Feed prices have been holding strong in the wheat/durum markets this week. We have seen bids at $5 – 5.55/bu picked up. The stronger bids are being shown in south west Sask and with movement into the new year. We still have options for October – December delivery if you are needing cash flow before years end. The milling wheat market has been a bit quiet on the trading side, with bids around $6.50/bu delivered based on higher protein levels (13.5%). There is pricing on lower protein wheat, however, moving into the feed market is almost showing better/equal pricing opportunities. Milling durum is priced around $7.50 – 7.75/bu delivered.

The malt barley market remains a dead horse this week, not coming as a surprise to most. We have very few bidders on malt quality at present and suggest growers use firm targets to capture any potential buyers’ interest. Most recent indications suggest producers target the $5.00/bu delivered to plant range on 2 row Copeland and Metcalfe varieties. Although not a slam dunk, we may catch someone in need of product, just waiting on the right offer to come along. On the feed barley side of things, markets remain strong and trading between $4.00 to $4.50/bu picked up depending on location. You can see higher prices for pushed out movement into the Jan-Mar 2021 timeframe. As is usually the case, the closer you are to feedlot alley in Southern Alberta, the better the price will be.

Another week of patiently watching chickpea markets and waiting for a swing. There was a bit of activity from the buyer’s side this week to purchase in the deferred months. Early 2021 values for #2 Kabuli’s hit $0.30/lb FOB farm, but nearby remains $0.27-$0.28/lb FOB farm. The problem with this carry is that if a grower signs up for January movement and the nearby ends up getting support, they kick themselves for selling to soon, so instead, we wait. Feed/sample values are $0.12-$0.13/lb FOB farm and the desi market remains radio silent.

Flax pricing remains strong again this week with firm bid at $15.00/bu picked up before the new year.  If you have milling quality, you could capture up to $15.50/bu FOB for a Jan/Feb type movement. Yellow flax has firmed up as well, now sitting in that $16.00/bu picked up range. These flax prices, early into harvest, reflect lower supply in the Black Sea region. The market is depending on fresh supplies and export destinations are sending clear signals with these values. However, this could prove challenging as Canadian supplies will not be able to meet all the demand coming from the major importers. The unknown is when this market will hit the price ceiling.

Canary seed harvest should be wrapping up across Saskatchewan this next little bit, as it’s estimated that there is roughly only 20% un-harvested. This should put us well ahead of the 10-year average. How is the crop fairing? Well, from reports that we are hearing, things sound promising, but the question that always plagues this commodity is the disparage in reporting. There are some that actually peg this crop to be upwards of 200,000 MT, a vast difference from roughly 159,000 MT that is floating out there right now. Either way, we continue to see pricing hold stead at 30-31c/lb FOB for movement within Oct – Jan. Price support is holding for this commodity and stems from the weaker CDN dollar, US millet crop shortfalls and possibly the confusion in expected harvest numbers.

Oats prices are sideways this week with milling bids around $2.50/bu FOB farm in most areas of the province; this doesn’t put a milling oat much better priced than a feed oat right now. If your farm is located in southeastern Sask we have had some milling bids catch $3/bu picked up on yard for fall movement. If you’re not in a hurry to move product the bids tend to get better into 2021 and you can put an extra quarter a bushel on your price waiting until spring as a viable option to lock in as well. We can see the finish line for harvest this year, but the north has been struggling with spotty rain dragging things out. Harvest pace had been wild, but it really has slowed down in the past couple weeks.

After a steady decline in canola futures to start the week, markets have rebounded in a big way today. November futures are up $8.40/MT today alone, placing them at $520.40/MT, which is up about $1 from the same time last week. Today’s big increase comes from the USDA reporting a large decline in US stocks of soybeans, corn and wheat when compared to a year ago. US soybeans stocks are down 42% compared to Sept. 1, 2019 and are sitting at 523 million bushels. This is a good chance for those that missed getting some solid futures prices locked in before last week’s slip.

Lentils continue to be the sought-after commodity this week, with the bright spot being small greens. We are starting to see them gain some strength after trailing behind so far this fall and bids are now in the 27-28 cents FOB farm range. Large green lentils remain strong as well with trades taking place at the 34-cent mark and even some firm offers triggering at 35 cents for #2 quality. Red lentils continue to trade in that 27cent range for October through December movement and the odd buyer willing to entertain 28 cents picked up for Jan-Mar shipment. In the last week buyers have also been looking for French lentils and Beluga lentils. The last Saskatchewan crop report had lentil harvest 99% complete, 11% ahead of last year. With lentil harvest wrapped up we are hearing from buyers that quality is mostly #2 or better for all categories of lentils.  If you still have poor quality lentils in the bin this maybe the time to get rid of them as the pet food market will need product at some point to fill their rations.

It looks like the mustard harvest has wrapped up well ahead of the usual average, but markets remain flat as buyers digest the outcome here in Saskatchewan and Alberta. This will certainly lead to a good quality of mustard this year, with a high percentage grading #1. There has not been really strong demand behind export business, and this is keeping the bids firm, but stuck in this trading range for now. Bids today for mustard are sitting at $0.40/lb FOB farm for yellow, $0.305/lb FOB farm on brown, Oriental Forge at $0.275/lb and cutlass at $0.255/lb FOB farm. Even though October is just beginning, it may be time to actually start thinking about new crop contracting soon. Call your merchant with offers.

Despite harvest pressure and easing Chinese demand, soybean futures are up strongly based on the recent USDA stocks report. Year or year inventories are down sharply and have spurred the market up dynamically. Local soybean bids now hover around $11.00-$11.50/bu picked up depending on location. Still good opportunities to contract new crop fabas at $7.50 -$8.00/bu for #2 export quality. Aussie faba bids are down and now aligned with long term market ranges. This will mean more competition for our fabas into Egypt and thus moderate our local bids. Some classes of dry bean (navy, pinto) have sharp production increases year over year, whereas white bean production appears to be relatively flat year over year. Dry bean demand still exists, and buyers will be interested in purchasing any new crop contract overages.  

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.


Rayglen Market Comments – September 23, 2020

Flax demand from China, the EU and US look to remain strong and with low Canadian carry-over, prices have crept up slightly this week. Trades are being done upwards of $15.00/bu picked up in the yard for milling quality brown flax, while yellow flax prices perk up to around $16.00/bu FOB. Favorable weather over the last week has allowed flax harvest to advance nicely, so we expect more product coming to the table shortly. The Black Sea region exports have fallen off due to lower supplies, meaning the market will be looking for fresh supply in other areas. Bids are reflecting the market demand, however, Canadian supplies will not be able to meet all the demand, so values are likely to remain strong with some possible upside.

The oat harvest is underway with just over 15% in the bins as of the middle of this month. Early indications suggest that the volume is still set to outpace last year by a bit but there is still the question mark on quality. The early stuff that’s off looks to be nice but the later crop that was subject to the heat with no rain could prove to be interesting. Once more numbers are gathered, we’ll see how things are really shaking out. Right now, milling quality prices are hovering around that $2.55 – $2.80/bu FOB farm with movement in the new year. If you happen to be near the SE Sask/Man boarder and product is off, call your Rayglen merchant as you may be scratching $3.00/bu FOB for quicker movement. On the feed side, prices are ranging in that $2.50 – $2.75/bu FOB farm.

The feed barley market has really been taking off this last week, but unfortunately the same cannot be said in malt barley markets. Currently we have very few bidders and/or options on malt barley contracts and suggest targets as a possible way to catch someone’s attention. Rumors suggest $5.00/bu delivered to plant is attainable on Copeland and Metcalfe varieties, but so far, we’ve been unable to corroborate them. The feed barley market has a tight trading range this past week with most bids sitting between $4.00-$4.50/bu picked up pending location. A decent carry in value is seen for deferred Jan-Mar 2021 shipment for those who can hold product into the new year. Bids increase as FOB locations move Southwest, with the highest values seen in Southern AB close to feedlot alley.

Bids have firmed up in the pea market this week since StatsCan came out with lower production estimates. Yellow peas have been trading at $7.00/bu picked up, green peas are priced at $8.90 – 9.00/bu delivered and maple peas are seeing bids at $8.00-$8.25/bu picked up. China’s continued steady buying is holding the yellow pea market up as well and helps contribute to these stronger markets. If the new StatsCan estimates are correct about production, then our yellow pea supplies will end up being a lot tighter than expected which could bring a positive affect to pricing this marketing year. As we know, green pea acres were up this year, but with lower production estimates our supplies should sit at more comfortable levels. That being said, any price increase will likely be more subdued when compared to yellow peas.

With chickpea harvest reportedly 69% complete, StatCan has once again adjusted their yields upwards to 30bu/acre. This translates to production on a whole being 5% below last year, again, rendering a large carry for 2020/2021. Despite that, there is a bit of a firmer tone as reports of smaller caliber chickpeas are being harvested; quality seeming to be decent thus far. The overseas market is putting some weight into the results of the Argentinian harvest, but this will not be reported till November. It feels like there are several different ways this market can move right now but from a grower’s perspective it needs to improve before the bins open again. Bids for a #2 Kabuli sit around $0.27-0.28/lb FOB farm and sample grade remain at $0.12/lb FOB on average.

Wheat prices have smartened up a bit here in recent weeks, with feed bids back touching $5 to $5.50/bu in most areas. Prices depend greatly on the area your farm is located and whether you want product unloaded now or in the winter (Jan-March); the latter of the two is bringing a solid carry. How solid? Well, usually the carry from fall into winter is a few bucks a tonne, but a few buyers have said they are showing up to $10/MT right now, which is pretty solid. Milling wheat prices moved up to $6.50 delivered in range on a #1 CWRS with 13.5% protein. If you have a target in mind on your wheat talk to your preferred merchant about what you are looking for and we can see what works. We have a few options on low protein #1 wheat as well at values in between feed and milling.

Canola futures have dropped off this week after seeing a big jump upwards the previous two. This appears to be coming from large sales in soybeans early in the week due to concerns of a second COVID wave putting the global economy in trouble again. That being said, prices are still strong at a time of year when they usually push yearly lows. November futures at time of writing are at $519.60/MT, down from $530/MT at the same time last week. The January futures do hold a bit of carry in them at $527/MT today, down from $536 at the same time last week.

The canary seed market continues to ride a bit of a hot hand and there is not much right now that will get in the way and bring this market down. Product has been trading between $0.30 – $0.31/lb picked up on the farm with movement pushed out till January. The feedback that we’ve been receiving is that overall product is looking good and bushels seem to be on par with a decent crop. That being said, canaryseed is a notoriously under reported and we, as well as analysts, can only make their best guess as to what’s out there. With tight carry and a decent crop, we should see this market supported in the near term.

As might be expected, soybean futures have pulled back based on harvest pressure and farmer sales to elevators and crushers. From a demand perspective, this dip in futures has spurred on further opportunistic purchases from international buyers. Local bids are in the range of $10.75-$11.00/bu picked up on farm. Dry bean harvest is in its early stages and average yields are being reported. Many dry bean prices are currently similar to what was available prior to planting; thus, the market remains well supported. New crop faba bean bids are in the range of $7.00-$7.50/bu picked up on farm for zero-tannin varieties. Tannin varieties may command a premium with early indication of $9/bu FOB farm for select tannin varieties.

Reports of tariffs coming off in India and stories of troubles with the India pigeon pea crop (likely some relation) have lentils prices continuing to climb this week. Green lentils are seeing a nice increase in price with large green lentils trading up to 32 cents FOB farm for a #2 and small greens sitting in the 26-27 cent range FOB farm. Red lentils aren’t moving up in price as quick as greens, but we are still gaining strength with #2s currently trading at 27 cents FOB farm. Rising markets are always hard to trade into as no one knows where the top is, but this makes a perfect time to push the market with targets and/or to start making incremental sales – selling into a rising market is never a bad thing!

Mustard markets continue to trend sideways. In conversations with buyers, foreign demand remains quiet and everybody seems to have a “steady as she goes” attitude so far. Many growers are now complete on their harvest and yields continue to be all over map depending on where late rains went. Everyone seems to be wondering if the lower seeded acres eventually will lead bids higher as time goes on. Bids today for mustard are sitting at $0.40/lb FOB farm for yellow, Brown @ $0.305/lb FOB farm, Oriental Forge @ $0.275/lb & Cutlass @ $0.255/lb FOB farm. While it is early, it may be time to actually start thinking about new crop contracting soon. Call your merchant with offers.

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.


Rayglen Market Comments – September 16, 2020

Chickpea markets are becoming the first topic of conversation again as we get into harvest. Initial numbers out show expected yield for the 2020 production will be, on average, 27 bu/acre but concern of the size of the chickpeas has come to light. Timely weather events are believed to have affected the sizing and it is predicted there will be a smaller scale of caliber in the production. End of season frost also occurred which will likely yield some damaged production. Globally, Indian prices are the highest since 2018 which indicates they have been eating through their stocks. This does not translate to a huge jump in value, but it does support a bullish market. Prices have not moved from last week, but chatter has increased, and it is decidedly a bull market with today’s levels being a potential bottom.

The most recent StatsCan report was released showing that the large pea crop that was expected to come off is closer to 4.3 mln tonnes versus the 5 mln tonnes originally thought. Yellow pea tonnage looks to be just under last years numbers with green pea tonnage at a 25% over. As such, we are starting to see a little more firming up in the yellow pea price at $6.75/bu delivered in with green peas staying soft around that $8/bu delivered. The maple pea market continues to flatline as prices hover around that $8.25/bu delivered in with a small pocket in the south east where you may be able to pick up $8/bu FOB farm. With pea harvest winding down keep an eye out for seasonal pattern pricing to edge up. Typically, around this time to November then with a hiatus till the new year, more so on yellows right now versus greens and maples, as supply is available for those two but demand isn’t.

Flax prices are holding strong for another week with bids in the $14.00-$14.25/bu range picked up in the yard depending on movement time frame and quality. The estimated acres are larger than last year, but the little carry-over of good quality flax has kept the prices supported. Another factor surrounding pricing will be if the flax yields are affected by the late July heat and early September frost. China will be increasing their flax imports due to some damage from heavy rains so there will be some pull on Canadian supplies. Russia and Kazakhstan flax yields are still the biggest unknown. However, there seems to be limited selling pressure out of those areas which suggests lower availability.  There are opportunities for quick movement on flax so once harvested, make sure to get samples into us

Mustard markets maintain values this past week despite StatsCan’s correction upwards of 2bu/acre on production to an average of 18.2 bu/ac. The reported fewer acres seeded this year is the concern and the factor that could drive buyer bids higher. In addition, buyer demand has not waivered and ending stocks maintained averages at 60,000 MTS. Harvest progress is ahead of the average at this point and quality is not a concern. Bids today for mustard average through to March as follows: Yellow @ $0.40/lb FOB farm, Brown @ $0.305/lb FOB farm, Oriental Forge @ $0.275/lb & Cutlass @ $0.255/lb FOB farm. While it is early days, this crop is believed to be a front runner in producers minds for increased acres next year; keep this in mind for your planning!

Wheat harvest is well on its way with a recent report suggesting 83% complete which compares to similar numbers on other cereals. Yield reports have been a quite a mix across the province though, as we hear numbers from 30 – 60 bushels per acre. All in all, bids and delivery on wheat (milling and feed) have seen slightly better quotes this week: feed values now sit around $4.75 to $5.35/bu FOB farm for Oct-Dec delivery, while milling bids hover at $6.25/bu delivered plant range depending on location and movement period. We have also seen some lower protein product (12.5%) trading at very attractive levels in central SK. Please call for details on this program.

Production estimates were released for September and lentils were up even more, with StatsCan showing an increase of 36% from last year. A big jump indeed, but so far these numbers have yet to affect pricing. This week #2 large green lentils are catching buyer’s attention and we’ve been trading at 30 cents picked up on farm quite consistently. There has been a bit of questioning on where this strength is coming from and it seems that some buyers are filling a short. Therefore, once filled, we may see some prices soften a bit again. Red lentils have been holding their price at 25 cents picked up and possibly a bit higher if movement is pushed out. As per reports, India’s demand has softened, however, sales are still filling into other destinations which is supporting the market.  Small green lentils haven’t sparked as much interest in comparison, but we do have bids at 24 – 25 cents being shown.

Barley markets showing some strength this week with price moving up around 10 cents per bushel. A few buyers still have September movement available, but for the most part Oct-Dec is quoted. A small premium is seen for Jan-Mar delivery windows. Buyers are suggesting that price increase maybe short lived as once sales are covered, price will slip again. These suggestions make sense when you look at the StatCan numbers released on the September 14, showing a gain of 200,000 tonnes over last year’s ending stock and 300,000 tonnes over 18/19 ending stocks. South east and North East Saskatchewan barley is trading @ $3.75-$4.00/bu, Southwest and West central $4.00-$4.30 and Northwest $3.75-$4.00bu.

Canary seed prices continue to be very strong this week. Prices are up as high as 30 cents FOB on October to November movement now. We are starting to get yield reports on canary into the office. Average seems like a good way to describe it at this point with most reports in the 20’s bushel per acre in a lot of cases. This year’s supply will likely remain tight and support prices at this point from the looks of it. Call your merchant on movement options as we may be able to ship earlier than October to November.  

The oats market is pretty weak these days with milling bids around $2.60 to $2.75/bu picked up in many areas, but movement pushed into next summer. Feed bids are wide ranging from $2.25/bu to $2.75/bu range depending on area and quality, but the feed movement is significantly faster than milling and possibly would allow bins to free up, or bags to empty, within 3-4 weeks. Waiting on milling movement to next summer for little to no premium doesn’t make a ton of sense based on today’s values. Hopefully we see milling rates climb up a bit after we break free of harvest pressure and yield numbers get a little more accurate to how the crop actually ran and not just projections.

Soybean futures caught their breath yesterday after lower August crush numbers. Today is a new day and soybean futures have staged another leg-up fueled by continued Chinese demand and an announcement by the US EPA. EPA announced it will hold refiners to account on renewable inclusion rates. This has direct impact on corn consumption, but as it said “corn floats all boats” and the commodities board turned green today. Local bids are in the range of $10.75/bu picked up on farm. Dry bean harvest reports are in the early stages and average yields are being reported. We continue to get dry bean buying inquiries from a well-supported but not panic driven market. New crop faba bean bids are in the range of $7/bu picked up on farm for zero-tannin varieties. Tannin varieties may command a premium with early indication of $9/bu FOB farm for select tannin varieties.

Canola futures have jumped up sharply today after seeing small losses yesterday. Those losses came from speculators booking in profits and taking their risk off the table. End user demand appears to be driving prices up and this type of price strength at harvest might be a sign of strength to come for the rest of the crop year. November canola futures are sitting at $530.20/MT at time of writing while January futures are $536.90/MT. There is a bit of carry into March/May futures but a slight decline into July. As always, keep an eye on local basis levels and those deferred positions to find that little bit extra.

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.


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