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Rayglen Market Comments – July 29, 2020

Its crop inspection week(s) here at Rayglen so the office is pretty sparse on staff. Comments will be pretty short and sweet this week.

Soybean prices have been lower due to low demand and good crop conditions in US. Most of the bids we have seen lately have been closer to $9/bu FOB farm, maybe a touch better in the right freight area. No fall pricing to post as buyers waiting to see how things unfold over next few months. If you are looking for prices on faba beans for fall we have a buyer looking for some firm grower targets; north of $8/bu sounds to be workable on the preferred varieties.

Feed wheat markets are weaker in lots of areas of the province lately as $5.00/bu becomes much harder to track down from most buyers. If you are to the west we can still find bids on the right side of $5 picked up on farm but end users are filling and focus turns to new crop which tends to diminish prices, you know, the whole supply vs demand dance. Milling wheat prices just scratch above $6 bucks a bushel delivered to plant for a #1, 13.5px CWRS which is obviously, not great. 

Mustard prices are holding strong again this week. New crop yellow mustard ranges from 39-40 cents, new crop brown from 30-32 cents and new crop oriental 26-28 cents on forge.  The price depends on the movement, but are picked up and still have act of God.  There is also room in August to move out some old crop. While the 2020/21 crop year may have some tighter supplies, analysts are reporting that this won’t impact price the same as it has in previous years. The Black Sea region supplies will offset the smaller Canadian crop.

There is limited room to move old crop oats, but if there are some in the bins, we are seeing prices range from $3.50-$3.75/bu picked up. New crop is also still holding with prices ranging from $3.50-$3.75/bu delivered depending on movement. Reminder that some buyers, and the list grows, are only buying glyphosate free oats.  If you have any feed oats in the bins, we have opportunities as well.

Feed barley prices have stayed strong this week again. Old crop barley that is heavy and dry is trading between $4.00 – $4.50/bu FOB Farm depending on location.  New crop prices are $3.50 -$4.00/bu. Much of the barley is heading west into Alberta so, pricing is best the closer you’re located to southern Alberta.  We always have bids at discounted prices for any off-spec barley as well so be sure to let us know what’s in your bins.

Chickpea markets hold fast as we move through the final stretch of the growing season. Reports of white mold and root rot are prevalent but this has no reflected on the values on the market. Old crop large kabuli bids hover around $0.26/lb off the farm and new crop coming in at the same value. With continued concern around growing conditions it would not be surprising to see a bump in these values sooner rather than later as previously expected.

Flax crops are still flowering but looking really good. Quality is not a concern as of yet despite talk for most special crops being under disease pressure. New crop bids are around $13.00/bu FOB for Brown and Yellow is at par. Old Crop can still get a bit of a premium depending on quality and movement. Old crop is more of an opportunistic scenario where buyers are coming in with a short to fill and the need is immediate. Best way to capture that market is setting targets. Call your broker to discuss options and opportunities.

As we head into the upcoming harvest the old crop peas markets have gone quiet. Old crop green peas are trading between$8.50 and $9.00/bu picked up on farm whilst old crop yellows are at $6.00 to $6.50. Maples bids, if you can find one, are between $8.50 and $8.75 delivered to plant. Early reports suggest that pea crops will be average to above yield. Most buyers will likely not back to the market until combines hit the field.

Lentil markets are staying relatively strong for this time of year. Old cop reds are still trading at 28 cents/lb delivered with new crop trading between 24-25 cents. Large green lentils are still sitting at 28.5 cents picked up on farm for a #2 quality. New crop pricing on large greens seems to be harder to find right now which, in part, could be due to India this week suggesting they may have a big pigeon pea crop.  Lots of pigeon peas limits India’s need for large green lentils. Medium green lentils have lost a cent or new and old crop bids and small greens still have some interest at 28 cents on a #1 FOB farm.  

Canola disappearance is occurring at faster rate than earlier anticipated. Whether this was whole seed exported through developing trading channels or finished product through Western Canadian crush facilities, the result is a carryout number that is less burdensome than originally forecasted. If disappearance holds pace into new crop, we end up with carryout figures that could conceivable be well below the five-year average of 13%. Local spot bids for canola are near $10.90/bu delivered in some locations. New crop bids are also strong hovering around $10.50 delivered. We continue to have premium picked on farms bids for non-GMO canola. Contact your Rayglen merchant for more details.

Credible canary seed yield forecasts seem to remain elusive and firm carryout numbers are equally as vague. With that considered, sometimes demand and current bid are as good an indication as to what the market believes the relative abundance will be. Some have attempted to quantify these statistics and have assembled supply and disposition tables with their assumptions resulting in lower carry outs than last year. This would be supportive for bids and in large part that is what the market is currently reflecting. Local spot bids are 27-28 cents/lb picked up location dependent and new crop bids are in the range of 25 cents/lb picked up.

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.


Rayglen Market Comments – July 22, 2020

Flax is looking good to excellent in Saskatchewan according to the latest reports from analysts anticipate good odds of above average yields for 2020. While the crop is not in the bin yet, it has given some breathing room for exporters. Old crop flax prices are starting to merge with new crop pricing and the highs we saw a couple of weeks ago are down slightly. The flax outlook in the key areas of Kazakhstan are reporting dry conditions with yield potential reduced. On the other hand, seeding acres are up 15% in those same areas, so that will offset lower yields somewhat. This could provide more support for Canadian flax exports. There is a small window to move old crop flax out before buyers wait for the new crop harvest to hit the bins, so consider making some final sales.

Oat prices remain strong again this week with old crop bids for July / August still hovering around $4.65/bu delivered to some locations. New crop ranges anywhere from $3.50-$3.70/bu delivered depending on the time frame of delivery. Feed oats have some movement as well indicating $2.50/bu FOB farm as long as they are heavy and dry. We also have some buyers only looking for glyphosate free oats now and after harvest, something to keep in mind to expand selling options. If you have a target in mind, call our office and we can get that set up for you.

The November futures price on canola is down a little bit this morning at time of writing, although grower bids seem to be stable. Product has been trading around $10.50/bu delivered plant in the Saskatoon area with other varying bids throughout the province. The canola-rape oil stocks are getting tight in China, which could provide some support down the line. China’s rape oil prices have gained nearly a third since May 27th. The China/Canada rocky relationship is definitely not helping the situation, but continued purchase commitments of US soybeans from China should provide underling support for canola.

The pea market remains quiet as we inch closer to harvest and is expected to continue this way till new crop comes around. Right now, the pea acres seem to be doing well, with a few disease issues popping up due to excessive moisture. This next week is forecasted to bring some heat which should help with the pulses. Pea prices aren’t expected to fluctuate a bunch after harvest, unless we have yield issues pop up. Even if yield is affected, a price bump could be slow to arise as per reports. Green pea acres are up which will keep pricing at bay, while yellows could see a price recovery if China stays in the market. Current pricing on yellows is $6.00 – 6.50/bu FOB and new crop at $6.50 – 7.00/bu and spot green peas are $9.00/bu FOB with new crop at $8.50/bu. Maple peas are $8.00/bu FOB and $8.50/bu FOB on new crop. Into this week we have seen more buyers state glyphosate free is the preference, so growers need to be aware on their market restrictions.

Wheat futures were up across the board this morning. However, wheat acres in Canada and the US seem to be doing well overall, which could affect pricing from pushing higher. Bids on higher protein (13.5%) HRS wheat see $6.00/bu but with delivery dates pushed out further into the year. We do have a buyer looking for low protein wheat, so if you have some in the bin that isn’t quite feed, we may have some other options. Feed wheat/durum is trading at $4.75 – 5.50/bu FOB and the durum market also had a few $8.00/bu new crop trades in the South East based on a #1 US quality.

The chickpea market is very quiet right now. Spot prices are very hard to come by, but we have a few buyers kicking around with some bids in the mid 20’s with across the board pricing. On the other hand, some buyers are showing much lower prices. We still have a buyer or two posting new crop values in the high twenties delivered to plant with an act of God, but we don’t have any indication how deep that business is so treat as such. Reports again this year, like last, of an emerging plant health issue showing up in chickpeas in southern Saskatchewan as well as Montana & North Dakota raise concerns with this crop and bring questions about the future on growing them here. As further information on this malady comes in, we will share it but we have talked to multiple producers who have already dropped chickpeas as an option last year due to this problem so this will likely compound that response.

Old crop canary seed pricing has dipped down as new crop and old start to converge. Old crop bids are currently sitting at 27 – 27.5 cents/lb delivered in. New crop canary continues to trade at 26 cents/lb picked up on the farm for Sept – Dec with an Act of God. The crop conditions on canary seed have dipped a bit and are pegged at around 60% rating good to excellent. Hopefully the weather will co-operate and bump these numbers up.

Soybean futures are in a tug-o-war with optimism over favorable crop development and continued Chinese demand. Tensions between the U.S. and China could spoil demand prospects. That said China continues to make purchase commitments for U.S. origin soybeans. Local soybean bids continue to hover around $9.50-$10.00/bu picked up depending on location. Still good opportunities to contract new crop faba bids at $8.00/bu for #2 export quality. Dry bean demand still exists, and buyers will be interested in purchasing any new crop contract overages.  

Feed barley prices are still strong for movement in July/Aug. They then start to drop off to slightly lower new crop values so now is the time to get the last bit in the bin sold before the prices converge. Old crop barley that is heavy and dry is trading between $4.00-$4.40/bu FOB farm depending on location, while new crop ranges between $3.50-$4.00/bu FOB farm. For both prices, the closer to southern Alberta you get, the stronger the pricing will be. We have also have bids for any off spec feed barley, so be sure to call in for a price in your area.

With the recent rain we are heating some reports that lentil crop conditions are deteriorating due to disease. Talking with farmers this week most have done their first pass of fungicide and some are on their second. News of these condition has not affected market price as of yet. Red lentil old crop pricing continues to converge with new crop pricing. Large green lentils remain relatively strong on old crop pricing with #2’s trading between 28-29 picked up on farm. New crop large green pricing is a little hard to find but seems to be still sitting around 28/26 for a number #1/#2 priced contract. Predictions are that red lentil supply should be average, but the green lentils supply may remain tight. The Hindu Business Line reported that the Indian government has announced an increase in their MSP (minimum support price) for lentils for the upcoming kharif crop. The increase is said to be a gain of 3.48%. They are hoping to encourage the seeding of more pulse therefore reducing their need to import. Increase acres on paper is great concept but the crop is a long way from the bin. So, until the crop is in the ground and harvested it is anyone’s guess on what kind of supply they will have this winter.

This past week has been fairly stable on mustard prices, with the low acreage number seeming to still provide support. The prospect of very good crops and yields hasn’t dampened prices due to the surprise seeded acreage report showing the huge reduction. Again, the story remains the same; slow export pace along with some skepticism in the seeded acreage report. This is why we see values creeping up a little but not going much higher at this juncture. Yellow mustard remains at 40 cents for old and new crop. Brown is solid at 32 for new crop and 30 to 32 for spot pricing, depending on movement. Oriental Forge sits at 28 for new crop and 26 to 27 cents for old crop might trade. Oriental Cutlass sits at 27 for new crop and 25 for old crop possibly. Moving old crop oriental is a bit of a challenge right now. Call your merchant for details.   

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.


Rayglen Market Comments – July 15, 2020

Milling quality flax prices are still holding but some buyers are starting to make that transition from old to new crop pricing. The window is also getting smaller for old crop to move out before buyers just put on a hold and wait for the new crop to come off. Canadian supplies are pegged to remain tight, but the demand is what is shifting. Canadian seeded flax acres are more concentrated here in Saskatchewan with a 5% increase. Alberta acres are down by 15% while Manitoba’s seeded flax acres are even lower by 48%. The larger than expected US acres will restrict some imports. The wild card will be the Black Sea region and the size of their crop.

The oat market remains strong with many companies paying upwards of $4.25 to $4.50/bu delivered in. If you are looking for a price FOB farm or would like to put in a target, please call the office. The feed oat market also is very consistent, and product has been trading between $2.50 to $3.00/bu FOB the farm for dry/heavy oats. A friendly reminder that some buyers have moved to only taking glyphosate free oats and that these sorts of markets seem to be popping up more often. Something to keep in mind this harvest season.

Pea crops are looking decent at this time of the year, however concerns about disease are starting to arise. These wet conditions could start to cause issues as some areas are already reporting yellowing in pulse crops. Right now, pea bids are quiet, however come harvest we could see some changes. Green pea acres are up and if a decent crop comes off, prices we could see prices soften a bit. On the other hand, yellow pea carryout supply and planted acreage is down, therefore we could see slight price recovery after harvest. Green peas are trading at $9.00/bu and new crop at $8.50/bu FOB. Yellow peas are $6.50/bu for old crop and $7.00/bu FOB on new crop. Maple peas have remained quiet with old crop at $8.00/bu and new crop at $9.00/bu FOB.

The canola crop across the prairies looks to be in relatively good shape although some areas are showing concern over excess moisture. Still, it is reported that about 72% of the crop is in good to excellent shape. November and January futures are down this morning as we write. Along with a rise in the Canadian dollar, weaker vegoil complex seems to be the culprit for these softening markets. Producer delivered plant bids remain relatively unchanged with the highs around $10.50/bu in the northwest and down to $10.15/bu in the southwest part of the province. These values translate back to roughly $9.75/bu range FOB farm and higher across Saskatchewan.

Chickpea markets are status quo despite buzz of root rot and issues in applications of fungicide. That’s not to say that it won’t change, but right now there does not seem to be a huge concern over quality for the current crop with the belief that the bins are full of good quality. Old crop values for #2 Kabulis have slipped to $0.25-0.26/lb FOB farm and new crop slightly below that with an AOG. Feed chickpeas are starting to slow on movement as processors fill up, but bids remain the same @ $0.10-$0.12/lb FOB farm.

Low StatCan seeded acres on mustard have provided a bit more fodder to the current mustard spot price with the yellow varieties creeping back up to 40 cents/lb for summer movement. We have heard some oriental interest in the mid-twenties plus range and brown prices have saw some interest north of 30 cents on the right grower target. The seeded acreage report showed drastic reduction in the oriental and brown mustard acres and a smaller reduction in yellow. Our carryout numbers this year are tight but not as tight as they could be as our exports are over 10% behind the normal pace; so the cupboards are not as bade as they could/should be.  This slow export pace, along with some skepticism in the seeded acreage report, is why we see values creeping up a little but not going wild at this juncture. The crop conditions for mustard are reported to be very good, but mustard does tend to start strong and creep lower as the hot and dry season comes along.

Canary seed prices remain stable for new crop at 26 cents for fall delivery with an Act of God. Old crop has been trading at 28 cents but that is getting hard to find especially for quick movement. The industry feels that 20/21 supply is going to remain tight as the acreage numbers are modest. If trade numbers remain similar to 19/20 numbers, future canary prices should remain similar to this past year. 

Old crop red lentil prices seem to have lost a cent or two pricing over the last week. This is normal as we near the upcoming harvest. If grain cannot be delivered before the end of July, then most companies will wait for the new crop to come off and start taking delivery of their precontracted product. Even though old crop prices are slipping new crop prices remain around the 25-26 cent mark for September to December delivery. Large green lentils remain strong for old and new crop. Old crop #2’s are still trading at 29-30 cents, and new crop values average 29 cents for #1 and 28 cents for a #2. We also had a buyer come to us this week looking for a few loads of French greens. If you still have some in the bin give us call to find out more information.

Feed barley prices are hanging on late in the crop year with bids not changing much over the past few weeks. Heavy and dry feed barley will fetch an attractive $4.00-$4.40/bushel FOB farm depending on your location for July/August movement. Bids look strongest the further west you are in Saskatchewan. We always have bids at discounted prices for any off-spec barley as well so be sure to let us know what’s in your bins. New crop feed barley bids have shown up and are as high as $4.00/bushel FOB farm in western Saskatchewan.

Weather and crop ratings continue to underpin supply pressure, recently sending futures prices higher. China continues to firm up purchases as the country expands its poultry and swine herds. Local soybean bids continue to hover around $9.50-$10.00/bu picked up depending on location. Still good opportunities to contract new crop faba bids at $8.00/bu for #2 export quality. The acreage increase in dry beans is old news. Dry bean production will still be a question mark as we move through summer and into harvest. If seeded acres and crop intentions come to fruition, one can expect some pressure on local cash bids.

From a US and a commodity futures perspective, concerns about looming production cuts following last week’s La Niña weather outlook has offered modest support to the wheat complex. Across the Western Prairies wheat production volume per acre is anticipated to be up due to favorable weather patterns. Quality becomes the question now, with regard to grade and protein levels. Old crop milling wheat #2-13.5 hovering near $6.50 delivered. Feed wheat bids are ranging from $5.00-$5.50 picked up location dependent.

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.


Rayglen Market Comments – July 8, 2020

As we know, pea acreage numbers remain fairly neutral in total acres, with green peas seeing an increase in plantings and yellows decreasing. Green peas were trading at favorable values which pushed the decision for more greens to be planted this year. Overall, our new crop values are steady, but we saw old crop values take a hit these past couple of weeks. Yellow peas are trading at $6.50 – 6.75/bu FOB, while greens are bid at $10.00/bu delivered. New crop bids sit at $7.00/bu on yellows and $8.50/bu on greens. With green pea acres up, there may not be much of a price uptick going into fall, but reports suggest we may see some upside to yellows. Maple pea markets remain unchanged, with new crop at $9.00/bu and old crop down slightly to $8.00 – 8.50/bu.

Canola futures have been gaining strength over the last little while and markets closed at their highest point in the last 3 months yesterday. The reason for the gains has a lot to do with excessive moisture in Western Canada and crop development concerns. As we write this, canola is so far unchanged this morning, but we hope to see continued strength as the day goes on. Producer delivered plant bids range between $10.50/bu in northwest Sask, down to $10.15/bu in the southwest. For the most up to date prices in your area, basis levels and/or a firm FOB farm bid, please call your Rayglen merchant.

Even with an estimated acreage increase of 12%, lentil prices remain sideways this week. Of course, yields will play a role in supply, but with less carry-over, the crop shouldn’t feel burdensome. Lentil bids haven’t collapsed and there is still opportunity to move old crop. We would expect to see old crop prices start to align with new crop at this time, but spot bids remain at an attractive premium (5cents/lb on reds and 1-2cents/lb on large greens). Red lentils are accounting for most of the gains in acres, so we may see more upside potential in green lentils in the future. The recent wet conditions in some areas could affect quality, but the latest Sask Ag report shows continued improvement on the 2020 lentil crop overall.

This year a decrease in flax acres of 3% is very minor and prices reflect that with no change in new crop values. If yields are average, production would be pegged at an increase of 8% from last year according to analysts. Exports in June showed shipments to the EU and China, but volumes will be limited this month. There is still demand for milling flax but supplies on farm seem to be of poorer quality and/or spring threshed.  If you do have milling quality in the bins, $16.00/bu would be an attainable number. New crop brown flax continues to trade around $13.00/bu FOB farm. While Canadian supplies are likely to remain tight, the larger than expected US acreage will limit exports there. There are also some early reports with dryness in the Black Sea region; we remain optimistic that this could leave room for more Canadian flax being shipped into China and the EU for 20/21.

Old crop milling oats are still trading strong, around $4.50/bu delivered in. Give your Rayglen merchant a call if you want to put out a firm target if you’re looking to capture more. Feed prices are trading sideways this week as we continue to hold onto pricing at that $2.50 – $3.00/bu picked up in the yard on dry, heavy product. Farm stocks are tight leading to a slim carryout which could put a little pressure on new crop if there are any issues. Right now, all eyes turn to the skies to see how things will play out because so far, the oat crop is looking good.

Recent US weather forecast was positive for crop development and sent soybean futures tumbling after a recent run-up. Cash sales are indexing with easing futures prices. Just as in most years, soybean futures are currently trading a weather market and will surge and slide with the weather radar. Local soybean bids continue to hover around $10.00/bu picked up depending on location. Still good opportunities to contract new crop faba bids at $8.00/bu for #2 export quality. The acreage increase in dry beans is old news. Dry bean production will still be a question mark as we move through summer and into harvest. If seeded acres and crop intentions come to fruition, one can expect some pressure on local cash bids.

Chickpea markets maintain tone this past week. Despite both Canada and the US reporting lower acres overall, but higher than expected, the values have not changed. Canadian export data revealed the year-to-date export volume at only 91,000 MTS vs 130,000 MTS in 2018/19 crop year. Additionally, the US stocks to date are reporting 12% more than this time last year coming in at 196,000 MTS. According to StatsCan, as of late June, 75% of the chickpea crop was rated good/excellent compared to last year at 59% and the 10-year average of 63%. The producer’s reluctance to sell has kept values steady to date but any bump in the price could trigger selling and in turn soften those values beyond todays bid.

Wheat markets remain steady as we continue through the summer months and watch how weather will have an effect on quality. The hot and humid conditions are an ideal scenario for fusarium and concerns are growing on how being 10-14 days behind a typical growth year might play out. Old crop 12.5% – 13.5% pro HRSW prices range from $5.75 – $6.25/bu delivered into plant with Aug-September movement. Feed wheat prices are ranging from $5.00-$5.40/bu picked up on the farm for July/Aug movement.

Feed barley prices have begun to drop off as we approach the new crop year. Bids for heavy and dry feed barley are ranging between $4.00-$4.25/bushel FOB farm depending on location. Most of this barley is heading to southern Alberta so the further west you’re located, the better the price. We have been able to get some moved in July still, but that window will be closing very quickly. New crop feed barley bids are around as well, and we have seen up to $4.00/bushel FOB farm on the west side for movement in the fall.

Spot prices have come off a bit on canary as prompt windows to move product slowly dry up. We still have some buyers that would look at up to 28 cents for movement in late summer, but if bin space in July is what you want you may have to swallow prices closer to 26-27 cents/lb picked up on yard. Not bad compared to the 21 to 25 cent range we have grown accustomed to over the past 5 years. The new crop prices are holding up at solid levels still, with 26 cents at the farm for Sept to December including an act of God as a tradable number in most areas. Stocks are fairly tight, we think, so if weather issues kick in, we may see some upward price trend. Keep in mind bird food is one of those markets that seems to have fairly easy replacements so canary will likely follow what millet and the other bird food commodities do.

It’s been over a week since the acreage report came out on mustard, surprising most in the business as to how the low the number was. In the time since, we have seen a firming in prices, and modest moves slightly higher in some areas. Yellow mustard is now up at 38 to 39 cents for spot. New crop has moved higher and has a 40-cent bid now for full crop year movement. Spot oriental mustard sits at 26 cents for Forge and 25 cents for Cutlass; summer movement from June to July. New crop is stable at 30 cents FOB for Forge or Vulcan and 28 cents now for Cutlass. Brown trades have jumped to 30 cents FOB for spot and now up as high as 32 cents for new crop with September to July movement. Call your merchant with any offers on new crop and discuss options on new crop and old.

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.


Rayglen Market Comments – June 30, 2020

Pricing remains elevated for old crop milling oats at $4.65/bu delivered in. These prices should maintain as long as the demand is still there. If you’re looking ahead to new crop, $3.50 – $3.60/bu delivered into Manitoba is the going rate right now with the latter for pushed out movement into 2021. We continue to also see feed hold value at $2.50 – $3.00/bu FOB farm. A little tidbit of information from StatsCan, they pegged the oat acres to jump up 6.5% from the average. Saskatchewan continues to lead the pack in acres increasing 3.3% to 1.9 million acres versus the total oat seeded acres at 3.8 million.

Flax prices remain similar to previous weeks even after the StatsCan report came out earlier this week. Flax acres have a projected increase from 2019 acres, however with the tight supplies going into the new crop year, prices are being supported. There are still firm bids for milling quality flax, at the same time, the exports are slowing, and the market will start to shift into new crop pricing. The only indication for new crop prices to trend up would be lower than expected yields or lower acreage than reported. On the other hand, upside could be limited to a bigger Black Sea crop. New crop flax prices are currently at $13.00/bu picked up with an act of God.

The pea market has hit a bit of a slump this week, which was expected. Old crop and new crop values have edged closer and right now it is normal to see a seasonal lull. It is getting harder to find $7/bu yellow peas today, with most bids closer to $6.75/bu FOB. Green peas are trading at $10.00/bu delivered and maple peas also edged lower to $8.00-8.50/bu FOB. The updated StatsCan report came out and peas are still sitting at 4.2 mil acres. Therefore, if China continues to import at current levels then our 2020/2021 supplies will end up being tighter. New crop values are at $7.00/bu on yellows and $8.50/bu on both green and maple peas.

StatsCan updated numbers are posted and wheat acres have increased compared to last year but have been adjusted lower from the May acreage report. Wheat is sitting at 25,188 mil acres with durum and winter wheat acres increasing and spring wheat down from last year. The feed market has been trading at competitive values, which resulted in a good chunk of lower quality wheat and durum getting moved into the feed lots. Feed values are trading around $5.00 – 5.40/bu FOB with no dockage being deducted. New crop feed wheat values are trading around $4.85/bu picked up. If you have some lower quality wheat and durum in the bins that you are wanting moved before the harvest rush, let us know as we still have some prompt movement options available.

Statcan reported chickpea acres slightly up from their original report in late May from 255k to 298k acres on June 29th.  This does not come as a surprise as growers may have reduced their acres but not taken them out of rotation entirely. Positive weather reports are showing the drier areas of Western Canada are finally getting a drink from mother nature. Not sure if it is a little too late to reverse the yield but it is welcome. There is still a bullish feel to the market, but buyers are in no rush to push demand as we move through the motions of summer. Old crop values hold around $0.27-0.28/lb and new crop slightly below that with an AOG.

Canola futures start the week out strong with a $5/MT gain on Monday. Today (Tuesday) as we write, the market seems to be holding those gains. Support comes from lower planted acreage than 2019, despite StatsCan increasing their numbers from the march report. StatsCan currently has acreage pegged at 20.8MMT. Support today comes from strong soybean with China showing demand in that market. Producer bids delivered into plant are very similar to last week, sitting as high as $10.45/bu in northwest Sask and down to $10.15/bu range in southeast Sask. Call for a firm bid on your farm.

The canary seed market is still holding up pretty strong in recent weeks with bids at 27 to 28 cents/lb picked up on yard still available for summer timelines. New crop prices on canary are 25 to 26 cents on farm with act of God for Sept-Dec movement period. Historically, these are strong-ish spot and new crop values. We are seeing some sellers take advantage of these bids while the iron is hot, so to speak, as the canary market can be a very tough sell when said iron has gone cold. The seeded acreage report shows that canary acres are pretty much sideways from recent years at a projected 268,000 ac, slightly down from May’s 276,000. Seeded canary was 269,000 in 2018 and 243,000 in 2019 so you get the idea, sideways.

The soy complex recently followed corn markets higher despite concerns that more US acreage may go into soybeans this year. Strong crop conditions and potentially good yields may weigh on markets in the coming weeks. Over 160,000 bushels of soybeans were exported to China last week. While the movement was welcomed by U.S. exporters and growers, the volume remains woefully below Phase 1 commitment levels. Local soybean bids continue to hover around $10.00/bu picked up depending on location. New crop faba bids are in the range of $8.00/bu for #2 export quality. This is would be in line with long term new crop bids and represents an opportunity for growers. Firm prices available for any old crop dry bean inventory based on last year’s North American production shortfall. New largely contracted and acres are anticipated to be up 12% year over year.

The StatsCan report came out on Monday morning……and there was a big development concerning mustard. The May 7th report had acres at 395,000 and the new report on June 29th has acres at 257,000. This was a very surprising and dramatic drop which definitely raises some eyebrows. Is this a bit low? Either way, there has been a little bit of reaction in higher prices. Yellow mustard is now up at 38 to 39 cents for spot and new crop. Please show your merchant any offers at 40. Spot oriental mustard sits at 26 cents for Forge and 25 cents for Cutlass; summer movement from June to July. New crop is up at 30 cents FOB for Forge or Vulcan and up to 28 cents now for Cutlass. Brown trades have jumped to 30 cents FOB for spot and as high as 31 cents for new crop. Call your merchant with any offers on new crop and discuss the acreage report just out.

Feed barley prices have stayed strong this week again. Heavy and dry feed barley is still trading anywhere from $4.10-$4.50/bu FOB farm, with movement being pushed into August now. The majority of this barley is heading into southern Alberta so freight gets better the further west you are located. We have pricing available for light or tough barley with reasonable discounts to be applied as well. The malt industry is quiet for old crop, but we do have some buyers looking for a bit of Copeland at $4.60/bu delivered to the plant in south central Saskatchewan.

The StatsCan acreage report was released this week with no real surprises. With the increase in lentil prices just before seeding, the report saw a 500,000 acreage increase in seeded acres. The breakdown is 2,581,000 of reds, 907,000 large greens and 256,000 small greens. Reds saw the biggest increase while large greens remained the same as last year, and small green acres were reduced by 100,000 in Saskatchewan. Alberta saw an increase in reds lentil by approximately 80,000 acres, large greens at 40,000 acres with a decrease of 5,000 acres. These numbers will likely change a little come the August report and we expect the overall lentil number to increase slightly, with the major change in reds lentils. These numbers were expected by most in the industry therefor the market has not been affected this week. Prices remain flat with reds trading around the 31 cent market, large green lentils 31 for a #2, and small green lentils 29 cents. New crop pricing also remains stable with reds trading around 25-26 cents with an act of God, large green lentils 29-30 cents for a #2, small green lentils 27 cents.

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.


Rayglen Market Comments – June 24, 2020

Canola took a little dip in price the last few days but has s rebounded quite nicely this morning. As we write, July futures sit at $474.20/MT. This puts spot bids on canola around $10.33/bu delivered assuming a $20/MT under basis level. Recently, depending on delivery location, basis levels do fluctuate quite drastically so it’s best to call the office to get a firm delivered or FOB farm bid. The Canadian and USA acreage reports will be coming out next week and will be watched very carefully. The canola market will most likely follow the direction of soybean markets as it usually does, so keep an eye on those reports to offer some direction to canola. There has been technical resistance at canola trading over $480.00/MT.

Large green lentils got some renewed interest over the past couple of days, as buyers try to fill #2 quality orders. Bids as high as 32 cents FOB farm were seen and may still trade today on firm offer. As for other grades, we haven’t seen a lot of action, but X3 were trading around 24 cents FOB farm. New crop large greens still trading 30 cents for #1 and 28 for a #2 with an act of God. Buyers are still looking for new and old crop small green lentils as well, and spot reds continue to trade around the 30-cent mark. New crop reds remain bid at 25 to 26 cents with an Act of God. As we head into July lentil crops, for the most, part look good. A few concerns have popped up that disease may become an issue the crop doesn’t see some heat to dry things out, but generally things look good. Next week the seeded acreage report will be released, and this will give us a better idea of how many lentils went into the ground and how much of each variety. Feeling is that due to the late shipping frenzy that ending stocks will be lower than expected which will be the counterbalance to an increase in seeded acres, therefor, price should remain stable.

Wheat reports are a bit of a mixed bag all around. US spring wheat conditions dropped to 75% good to excellent with North Dakota dropping to 69% good to excellent as they’re having issues with heat stress. In Canada, 65% of the crop is fine with a 25%/10% split between dry and moist conditions. In the meantime, Russia looks to pummel the market with product as cheap as they can to move their accumulating stash. Last but not least, let’s not forget Australia, who is anticipating stronger yields after being out of the mix the last couple of years. So, how does this translate to pricing? Well, new crop values are weak which is pretty standard for this time of year anyhow. Old crop 12.5% – 13.5% pro HRSW prices range from $6.15 – $6.50/bu delivered into plant with Aug movement, though, most are looking for as close to $7 as they can get. On the feed side, wheat continues to hold its own at $5.00 – $5.45/bu FOB farm even with pressure from corn.

Flax exports remain strong, which will mean minimal supplies of carry-over into the 2020 crop year. Both StatsCan and USDA reports come out next week. Although North American supplies are forecasted to be tight going into the 2020 crop year, the global market is not in panic mode.  The Black Sea region is once again expected to have a fair-sized crop that will fill more European and Chinese demand. Crop conditions in the Kazakh growing regions have been favorable. There have been reports of Saskatchewan flax crop conditions declining over the last couple of weeks. It is still early in the season and rebounds are possible, but it just means moderate acreage for 2020. The highs in flax prices we have seen over the last month are starting to shift towards new crop bids.  If you still have flax in the bin you need to move this summer, there is still room available.

A bit of bullish news for chickpeas growers as producers are reporting both drier than usual conditions – which makes for smaller caliber chickpeas and low yield – and wet conditions in pockets of the province which can make way for disease. In addition, both Canada and the US reported drastic reduction in chickpea acres ranging from 30-35%. Those two points combined could shed new light on the chickpea markets. In bearish news, Mexico reported a slightly higher than 5-year average yield on their harvest and Russia continues to pump out chickpeas at the pace to set records for the 2019/20 year. Also, you’ve heard it before, there is still a large carry to chew through before we see any big change. Watch for occasional bumps if you are in a position where you need to make space or set a target to show the buyers your hard line. Expect more clarity on the Canadian acres with next weeks Statscan report.

The pea market has been much quieter in the past couple weeks. Green pea spot prices are trading still around $11/bu as a delivered to plant price on #2 quality with low bleach. Finding bids on higher bleach product is tougher right now as the trades are few and far between so the blending capacity is just not much of an option these days. Fall prices on green peas are around $8.50/bu at this time. New and old crop yellow peas have come a little closer to lining up this week and bids are generally around $7.00/bu. Old crop is still catching the occasional $7.50/bu number out there, so make sure you have your targets in. We have had a bit of maple pea interest from sellers trying to clear some bin space with grower targets at $9/bu, but most buyer bids closer to $8.50/bu. Overall crop looks pretty good at this time, a few areas need some dry weather and a few areas need some rain, but you see that contrast every year.

Feed barley values are holding their strength this week. For heavy and dry barley, prices range between $4.10-$4.50/bu FOB farm with options still available for July movement. Much of the barley is heading west into Alberta so, pricing is best the closer you’re located to southern Alberta. Bids for tough and light product are available based on discount schedules we can provide before booking. For malt barley, we have a buyer still looking for some old crop Copeland at $4.60/bu delivered to the plant in south central Saskatchewan. This could be a good option for anyone close by.

The old crop oats market has stayed strong due to a shortage of high-quality milling oats on farm. If you do have some #2 oats in the bin, opportunities exist as high as $4.50/bu for delivery into Manitoba. Freight can always be worked back for a price picked up on your farm. With acres increasing, we have a seen a big price drop for new crop milling oats, which falls in line with more average pricing at around $3.50/bu delivered to plant. For heavy and dry feed oats, values range from $2.60-$3.00/bu FOB farm depending on location. Pricing is best the closer you are to southern Manitoba.

We have been going strong on calling growers on contracted mustard acres. The reports are generally good, but there are some trouble spots where flea beetles and dry conditions have really hurt the germination. Canola and mustard, of course, are reporting the same results in these areas. The good news is, there are not too many and lots of growers seem pleased with the starts of their mustard crops. Yellow mustard remains solid at 37 to 38 cents for spot and new crop. Spot oriental mustard sits at 26 cents for Forge and 25 cents for Cutlass; summer movement from June to July. New crop is sitting at 29 cents FOB for Forge or Vulcan and 27 cents now for Cutlass. Brown trades at 27 to 28 cents FOB for spot and as high as 30 cents for new crop. Call your merchant with any offers on new crop, as perhaps this may be a good time to book, considering the start the crops have had.

The USDA indicated that pointed comments from the White House and an increasingly shaky trade deal motivated China to purchase 4.8 million bushels of 2020/21 soybeans from the United States yesterday. It is speculated that China has been the unidentified buyer who last month bought 21.0 million bushels of 2019/20 soybeans and 81.1 million bushels of 2020/21 of US origin soybeans. Local soybean bids continue to hover around $10.00/bu picked up depending on location. New crop faba bids are in the range of $8.00/bu for #2 export quality. This is would be in line with long term new crop bids and represents an opportunity for growers. Firm prices available for any old crop dry bean inventory based on last year’s North American production shortfall. New largely contracted and acres are anticipated to be up 12% year over year.

Old crop canary seed continues to trade sideways again this week at 27-28c/lb picked up on farm with movement ranging anywhere from July – Sept. New crop prices are sitting at 26c/lb picked up on farm with and Act of God for Sept- Dec movement. With very tight ending stocks we should see old and new crop numbers stay somewhat steady and soon merge moving forward. Seeding is wrapped up, so now we turn and keeping eyes on the sky to see how yields turn out.

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.


Rayglen Market Comments – June 17, 2020

As of June, lentil crops are sitting much more comfortably compared to last year at this time. Most areas have seen some moisture and lentils are rated at 77% good to excellent, compared to 36% the previous year. We are still expecting StatsCan to raise the seeded acres numbers for the 2020-2021 season, but large volumes of inventory moving late this year should keep carry out down and supplies at bay; depending on our crop outcome of course. Prices haven’t changed a whole lot into this week. Red lentils are trading at 28-30 cents on a #2 for old crop, while new crop sits at 25-26 cents picked up with AOG. Large green lentils are quoted at 30 cents on a #2 with new crop at 27-28 cents on a #2 with an act of God. Old crop small green lentil trades have gone quiet with #1’s getting harder to find and being quoted at 29 cents. New crop trades at 26 cents on a #1 FOB farm with full AOG. 

Feed barley is still trading at competitive values this week. As long as product is heavy and dry, we are seeing $3.90-$4.50/bu picked up on farm, with the stronger values being seen in south west Saskatchewan. If you happen to have spring threshed sitting around, we do also have buyers and just need to know the specs such as weight, moisture and excreta percentage to get you a firm bid. On the malt side, we have a buyer looking for some old crop Copeland at $4.60/bu delivered to south central Saskatchewan; picked up pricing is also available. Malt shipments this year continue to be delayed due to Covid, which is slowing down usage and therefore movement. New crop malt barley has been a little quiet as of late, with no real bids to speak of, but if you have targets in mind, we can always throw them out and see what kind of response we get back.

Before a number of locations where jolted with the rain last weekend and throughout this week, dry conditions where creating issues with crop emergence. Reports suggest this was especially the case in flax with 21% still reported in the seedling stage here in Sask. Now, with rain having fallen in a good number of locations, most areas should see these numbers pull along nicely. As it sits, new crop brown flax prices are trading around $13/bu FOB farm with an act of god, but we have seen firm targets trade at slightly higher values. Short supply continues to prop up spot brown flax and we continue to see strong pricing, up to $16/bu FOB on milling quality. As well, continue to show us spring threshed and off grade flax as they too continue to fetch attractive prices compared to past years due to tighter supplies on flax as a whole. With new crop approaching and closing the gap with old we may see buyers a little more reluctant to chase prices to much higher.

Over the last couple weeks, July canola futures have been on the rise. This morning at the time of writing, they trade at $474.40/MT. With an average basis level of say, $20/MT under, that puts spot purchases around $10.30/bu delivered to plant. The canola futures are being supported by soybean markets as of late and we hope to see continued strength across that complex. With that being said, the canola crush margins have all but dried up due to soybean oil prices and a stronger Canadian dollar. This is holding any gains to the modest side for now.

Wheat futures are mostly unchanged from last week. As US harvest progresses, market pressure will continue for the next couple of weeks. So far reports of the quality of US 2020 Hard Red Winter wheat crop is good condition with better than expected yields, but protein could be lower than average. Stress usually coincides with stronger proteins: South east Sask and West North Dakota will get more accurate protein levels into July. CWRS with 13-13.5% protein is likely to stay in the $6.00 -$7.00/bu range as far as prices go. If Russia exports are higher in 2020/2021, then we could see some rallies on price.  Feed wheat prices continue to hold strong this week, with markets ranging from $5.00-$5.40/bu picked up.  New crop pricing is lower, so it’s a good opportunity to move product out of the bins as movement on old crop is already pushing into August.

Canary seed has maintained its strength this week in both old and new crop markets. Old crop is being bid at 27 cents/lb FOB farm, while new crop rose slightly to 26 cents/lb FOB farm with an AOG for a Sept-Dec movement period. Rising new crop pricing shows some positivity for the upcoming canary crop. It may suggest that acres haven’t increased as much as some in the industry initially expected. Add that to expected seasonal export strength of lower on farm stocks and you can see why people are getting more bullish on canary prices for the upcoming crop year.

Chickpeas maintain a steady tone this week as weather moves across the majority of western Canada. There have been a few suggested reports that there is too much moisture right now and if it continues it could affect the yield in a negative way. This has not translated in a change to values but worth mentioning. Old crop #2 Kabuli values at $0.27/lb FOB farm and new crop about the same for a delivered plant price. While there are not a lot of growers left in the country growing Frontiers there are still some bins with carry from previous year to move. Bids for small caliber come in around $0.20/lb FOB farm and no bid on new crop. Desi’s are still the silent player in chickpeas as India reports 35% higher than average monsoons to support their production. Sample and feed quality have been trading steadily at $0.12/lb with wiggle room depending on down grading factors. All eyes on the weather!

The oats market is in short supply this spring so prices remain very high for those that may still have product in the bin. Bids delivered on #2 milling oats range north of $4.50/bu still this week and buyers have said if you have product, just show them an offer. Most of the delivery locations are far out east but we can work up a price FOB farm as well.  Oat acres have seen a bit of an increase from last year and the new crop prices show it, with a full buck fall off from current prices. These are still not terrible prices for oats historically as we have often seen bids on new crop struggling to catch $3/bu delivered in. Comparatively a $3.50/bu new crop price for winter 20/21 does not seem like the worst option to lock in today on a milling quality #2 Canada. Feed bids on oats still range from $2.50 to $3/bu FOB farm depending on farm location and other product specs like bushel weight.

The pea market continues to be quiet as old and new crop prices start to converge. As we head into the summer months expect markets to remain quiet as most countries will wait for new crop before making any more large purchases. If looking to move old crop peas, you can still find a home for yellow and greens, but maples and dun peas are a little harder to market right now. Yellows are trading between $7.25 to $7.50 and green peas $9.00 to $10.00/bu. New crop yellows are trading around the $7.00 mark and green peas $8.50/bu.  New crop maples are sitting at $9.00/bu. All are quoted as FOB farm including AOG. The Canadian pea exports have been going mostly to China, Bangladesh and Nepal which has helped shrink our ending stocks for this year. The news of lower ending stocks should help keep prices stable.

The province has picked up some rain over the past week in mustard growing areas. Growers are reporting good starts so far in southwestern Saskatchewan and southeastern Alberta, which are both very heavy mustard growing areas. Besides flea beetle pressure and few areas in southern Alberta that required re-seeding, moisture has not been too much an issue so far. There are pockets of dry areas in the southwest, but generally ok. Yellow mustard remains solid at 37 to 38 cents for spot and new crop. Spot oriental mustard sits at 26 cents for Forge and 25 cents for Cutlass; summer movement from June to July. New crop is sitting at 29 cents FOB for Forge or Vulcan and 27 cents now for Cutlass. Brown trades at 27 to 28 cents FOB for spot and as high as 30 cents for new crop. Call your merchant with any offers on new crop, as perhaps this may be a good time to book, considering the start the crops have had.

Soybean futures traded lower on uncertainty over Chinese demand. As new hog operations came online in May, the Chinese pig herd grew 3.9% from April 2020 inventories. A larger hog herd requires more soybean meal, which is great news for soybean producers as it increases the likelihood that China will increase purchases to feed the growing herd. Local soybean bids continue to hover around $10.00/bu picked up depending on location. New crop faba bids are in the range of $8.00/bu for #2 export quality. This is would be in line with long term new crop bids and represents an opportunity for growers. Firm prices available for any old crop dry bean inventory based on last years North American production shortfall. New largely contracted and acres are anticipated to be up 12% year over year.

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.


Rayglen Market Comments – June 10, 2020

Feed wheat prices have held up quite well over the past few weeks and we still see bids better than $5/bu picked up on farm in most areas; many bids are touching $5.50/bu in the yard. These bids are based on 58 lbs and dry (14.5%), but if you’re holding some off-grade spring threshed, we do have buyer interest in that as well.  Cheaper USD and comparatively raising CAD is not helping the local feed prices as corn becomes more appetizing to bring up on rail. Taking advantage on the strong-ish feed prices that we have today would likely be a prudent move. Price on #1 CWRS (13.5% pX) hovers around $6.25 to $6.40/bu delivered to elevator depending on movement window.  Durum prices for #1 product are still floating around the high $7’s to low $8’s/bu range as a delivered price for #1, 13.5%- touch base with what you have to firm up a price.

Tight supplies on flax throughout North America have kept prices at bay. Milling quality flax still hovers around $16.00/bu picked up.  Lesser-quality flax prices vary from there, depending on specs. The recent strength in the Canadian dollar has also prevented any further gain in prices.  If US crusher bids continue to lower, we could see the run of higher priced flax start to meet up with new crop prices, sitting closer to $13.00/bu FOB. If buyers have a hard time filling the pipeline because of tight supplies, they will likely just wait until new crop supplies are available. This is a good time to move any old crop that is in the bins. Although new crop supplies aren’t going to be heavy, the export competition would likely leave Canada more dependant on the US market.

Canary prices have slipped backwards slightly, which puts prices closer to 27 cents. New crop values are 25-26 cents picked up, with an act of God. The canary market has had a good marketing year, seeing up to 30 cents per pound and analysts don’t expect to see those prices again before 2020 harvest. The biggest factor in canary prices will be weather issues, but as we know, weather is unpredictable.  Putting the first 10 bu/acre on the books at these new crop levels makes sense as the spread between old and new crop is shrinking. Earlier reports of tight supplies and a sharp price rally before harvest have faded.

This week we saw pea prices take a slide to close some of the gap between old and new crop. Green peas were hit the hardest, now being indicated around $9.00/bu, when last week we were able to get $11.00/bu. Yellow peas weren’t hit quite as hard as bids sit around $7.50/bu FOB today. We can expect old crop prices to remain sideways or slip slightly further as we near new crop. New crop green peas are trading at $8.50/bu FOB and yellows are at $7.00/bu FOB. Maple peas remain steady at $9.00/bu on both old and new crop. Looking to the export side, we are relying on China to remain an active and stable buyer. If this is the case, our 2020/2021 supplies could be tight based on average production numbers. 

Barley seeding is now wrapped up for the most part and growers eagerly await to see the fruits of their labour. Feed markets remain a bright spot as we enter the summer months and growers holding on to feed barley should consider making some sales. Bids continue to hit the $4-$4.50/bu mark this week and with a stronger CAD (weaker USD), we could see US corn make its way int our markets. New crop feed barley bids are also quite attractive with many growers quoted around $4.00/bu on farm. On the other side, malt barley continues its lackluster performance due to the effects of Covid-19 on consumption. We hear and see reports of maltsters pushing contracted barley shipping periods out every day and even offering growers the option to void contracts if they choose. Therefore, bids on old and new crop remain few and far between. That being said, we do see the odd opportunity pop up, so make sure your merchant knows what you’ve got and your target value.

July canola futures have had a strong week after a couple weeks of poor performance. At the time of writing, the futures are at $467.80/MT. This compares to $460/MT one week ago. Much of this strength comes from managed funds covering off their short positions after near record short positions in many agriculture markets. The markets were, however, limited from more upside due to losses on Chicago soy and the Canadian dollar gaining strength over the past week. Looking forward, the November futures showed a bit of upside in the past week and sit at $471.20/MT, up from $468/MT one week ago.

Soybean futures continue in an upward trend built on reports of Chinese demand. Concrete details are scant and unsubstantiated regarding soybean purchases by state-owned Chinese grain companies. Local soybean bids continue to hover around $10.00/bu picked up depending on location. New crop Faba bids are in the range of $8.00/bu for #2 export quality. This  would be in line with long term new crop bids and represents an opportunity for growers. Firm prices available for any old crop dry bean inventory based on last year’s North American production shortfall. New largely contracted and acres are anticipated to be up 12% year over year.

Sask Ag. Initial reports of chickpea conditions show 76% of the crop rated good or excellent compared to the 33% last year. Global response to the value of chickpeas has resulted in a 40-45% decrease in Mexican acres and 30% decrease in both the US and Canada. Along with the flat line of values the export numbers have been exceptionally low in turn leaving ending stocks untouched. While COVID-19 has helped raise up special crops and open doors the same cannot be translated to Chickpeas to date. New crop values still hover around $0.25-$0.26/lb on the farm with an AOG and potential for more on a deferred delivery contract. Current crop values are steadfast at $0.27-$0.28/lb depending on location or delivery. Sample/Feed values come in at $0.12/lb

Don’t tell oats that the majority of the other commodity markets are flat or down as they continue to stride on. Old crop oats have a strangle hold on pricing again this week, with buyers in Manitoba desperately searching for product. Prices are reacting accordingly with $4.55/bu delivered in with the potential for uptick as new crop is still a distance away. Should increased new crop acres falter in eastern Sask/Man due to extenuating circumstances (rain etc), we could see new crop price potential increase as that area is a major stronghold for the milling market. As it sits right now, new crop milling prices range from $3.40 – $3.60/bu delivered in with the latter price for pushed out movement. If you are sitting on some feed oats, dry heavy product continues to garner that $2.60 – $3.00/bu depending on location.

Lentil markets remain unchanged from last week. Prices for #2 red lentils remain at 30 cents FOB farm. Large green lentils are trading at 32 cents for X2 and 30-31 for a #2, both FOB farm. Small green lentils have traded as high as 30 cents for a #1 and 25 for a #2. Lentils head into the final quarter of this crop year with the expectation of finishing ahead of last year’s shipments as well as the five-year average. At the end of quarter 3 we were approximately 0.3 mln tonnes ahead of last year.  With the late shipping this year it has helped lower our ending stocks, which should help keep new crop pricing relatively strong.  Things that may affect future pricing is that Australia seems to be able to keep finding lentils to sell even though they have surpassed the reported ending stock. To date they have shipped 110,000 tonnes more then they reported.  Canadian crop condition, at this point in time, are in good shape but it still early in the season and the last piece to the puzzle is India and what they decide to do with tariffs at the end of August.

Prices have remained stagnant this week. The talk over the last few days has been about flea beetle pressure. We have had numerous reports of crops being sprayed out and re-seeded with either mustard or something else. Also we know of a few growers waiting to see what happens after weekend rains and then deciding what to do. Stay tuned. We have had a few trades on mustard in the bin and a few new crop acres have been booked recently. Spot oriental mustard sits at 27 cents for Forge and 25 cents for Cutlass, for summer movement from June to July. New crop is sitting at 29 cents FOB for Forge or Vulcan and 27 cents now for Cutlass. Yellow mustard remains around 36 to 37 cents for spot and new crop. Brown trades at 27 to 28 cents FOB for spot and as high as 30 cents for new crop. Call your merchant with any offers and to talk possible targets.

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.


Rayglen Market Comments – June 3, 2020

Flax acres are estimated to be the same as last year, but with an improvement to the 5-year average yield, the 2020 crop would be 50-60,000 tonnes larger than the 2019 crop. Product left in the bins consists of mostly lower quality, which has kept prices supported.  Milling flax is still indicating $16.00/bu FOB, while #1, on average, is sitting around $15.00/bu picked up.  New crop brown flax can be signed up at $13.00/bu, FOB farm with act of God. The Black Sea region is signaling an increase in flax acres for 2020 and the growing conditions in Kazakhstan have been favorable. The US will continue their demand until new crop is available and will continue to be a dominant market for Canadian supplies as US crushers also have short supply south of the border.

The yellow pea market has softened a bit to start the week. Off their highs of the year, yellows are currently being bid at $7.50/bu FOB farm location dependent. Green peas are holding steady though, with bids still ranging from $10.50 – $11.00/bu FOB. A review of our exports show that China has been the main importer of Canadian peas for their expansion into the fractionation industry. Next year’s exports are going to depend heavily on China and as long as they remain an active buyer, we will see our supplies tighten up, which is should be supportive to pricing. New crop bids are at $7.00/bu FOB on yellows and $9.00/bu FOB on green peas. Maple peas are still holding steady at $9.00/bu on both old and new crop bids.

Feed barley prices remain propped up this week, as we’ve seen for the last little while. One concern always in the back of our mind: How high can these values go before feed lots will start to buy corn? Luckily, our weak Canadian dollar is likely making that purchase a bit tough, but at some point values will warrant the use of US corn. For now, we enjoy the strong market and continue to suggest making sales. Some of the reason we see these steady values is lack of producer sales over harvesting the remaining crop and seeding. We could see an influx of product now that many are wrapping up. With that being said, feed barley prices have range between $4.00 to $4.50/bu FOB depending on location.

Chickpeas saw a bump last week for a brief period with current crop trading at $0.29-$0.30/lb location dependant. The nearby market has been experiencing a yoyo effect for the last several months with no end in sight. Prices flatlined and then, boom, here’s $0.03/lb to fill a need. Wait 5 mins, prices go back down. A relatively large depletion in carry is the correction needed to change this pattern. Growers who have been placing targets are the ones that benefit from this style of market movement. Buyers see the opportunity, take the bait and quietly go about their business. No ripples in the water to bull up the market. New crop chickpeas have been unseasonably quiet for the same reason, over supply, under demand. Buyers have very little on the books so either they take positions relatively soon or continue with this yoyo marketing as we move through summer and fall.

Oats continues to hold their own in the market, with feed prices hanging tight at $2.65 – $3.00/bu FOB farm with the latter more so attainable in eastern and southern Saskatchewan. Old crop milling values are also staying strong with $4.55/bu delivered into Manitoba for June/July movement. So, in the right locations, watch for very attractive FOB farm values. New crop values are around, but the strength once again reigns supreme near the Sask/Man boarder with $3.00/bu FOB farm attainable. Call you Rayglen merchant for pricing specifics in your area.

July canola futures remain very flat this week after taking a big dive two weeks ago. Most of those losses came directly from soybean price drops due to trade issues between the U.S. and China. Little movement keeps the July futures price for canola at $460.70/MT at time of writing, compared to $462/MT at the same time a week ago. Local basis levels will vary as always but these futures put us around $9.75-$10/bu delivered into the plant. There isn’t much in the way of carry when looking into the November futures, which are sitting at $468/MT today.

Most of the mustard seems to be planted at this point. We are hearing some reports of severe flea beetle damage in mustard and canola in dry areas in the central south of the province. Prices though, have remained fairly neutral over the past week.  It might be a good time to put some new crop on the books at 10 bushels per acre with act of god as there are still some great contracts available. Spot oriental mustard sits at 27 cents for Forge and 25 cents for Cutlass, for summer movement from June to July. New crop is sitting at 29 cents FOB for Forge or Vulcan and 27 cents now for Cutlass. Yellow mustard remains around 36 to 37 cents for spot and new crop. Brown trades at 27 to 28 cents FOB for spot and as high as 30 cents for new crop. Call your merchant with any offers and to talk possible targets.

The canary market has been getting a bit stronger in recent weeks. On the new crop side of things, bids from a few buyers have firmed back up to 25 cents FOB farm with an act of God. We have even saw a few grower targets catch a little better deal, so make sure you use those targets! Spot prices have still been trading in the 27 to 29 cent/lb range depending on area, movement timelines and quality of product. Usually, this time of year we would see prices trail off some, but they still have held up despite not too many buyers queuing up to purchase. Supply is tighter than we have seen in quite a while, but you can still find product around and the seeded acres are slightly up from the lows of last year. The growing season will tell a lot about what this price does going into the fall but there is not a lot of room for error with this crop so things may be interesting if hot and windy is the summer climate.

Lentils markets received good news out of India with the government relaxing lentil tariffs over summer month shipments. The tariff exemption expires on the 31st of August and we will have to wait and see if they continue the exemption into the new crop year. This news brought on an increase in red lentil bids, but those prices did not last long. Reds hit as high as 33 cents delivered yesterday, but now are hovering around the 31-cent market. New crop reds remain in the 25-27 cent range. Spot large green lentil prices have not changed since last week, while new crop large greens seem to be priced all over the place. Bids on #1’s are 30-32 cents with #2’s at 28-30 cents. With all the price fluctuations this week, having targets in place is a perfect way to take advantage of the spikes.

The feed wheat market remains steady this week no change in pricing. Product continues to trade at $5.10-$5.50/bu FOB farm depending on location. Strongest prices are further west with most product heading to southern Alberta. If you have feed wheat and looking to have it moved before harvest now is a great time to get booked as most buyers are booking for June/July movement.  These prices are based on minimum 58 lb wheat with a maximum moisture of 14.8%. We do have homes for product not meeting those specs, with discounts to apply. Good #1 spring wheat with a 13.5% protein is sitting between $6.30-$6.40 delivered elevator. New crop sits about 10 cent lower for September delivery. October pricing is trading at $6.35-$6.40.

Soybean prices remained firm on recent Chines purchases, slow farmer sales as growers continued to be preoccupied with spring fieldwork and some support from the biodiesel sector. Local soybean bids continue to hover around $10.00/bu picked up depending on location. Faba export demand is limited with small opportunities at $9.00 picked up. Faba feed bids still hanging on near $6 picked up. Firm prices available for any old crop dry bean inventory based on last year’s North American production shortfall. New largely contracted and acres are anticipated to be up 12% year over year.

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.


Rayglen Market Comments – May 27, 2020

Flax prices remain firm again this week, ranging anywhere from $14.00-$16.00/bu depending on quality. For those with higher moisture flax or higher dockage, we do have markets available as well.  New crop brown flax is hovering around $13.00/bu, FOB and including an act of God. There have been some wetter conditions in northern Sask, which has kept the seeding progress behind average, but the delays aren’t serious yet. Canadian flax imports into China have dropped with Kazakhstan and Russia taking the top positions. Kazakhstan is already indicating increased flax acres for 2020. Canadian flax prices likely to hold until new crop starts to come off.  One of the key factors in our prices holding is that US crushers are short supplies on both sides of the border. However, issues with decent supplies of quality flax available, suggest short supply down south likely won’t be resolved until the 2020 crop is off.

As seeding progresses, the pea market remains unchanged from last week. Old crop bids for yellows are $7.50 – 8.00/bu FOB and green peas are at $10.50 – 11.00/bu FOB. Exports on peas this year have been steady, which will have our ending stocks on the low side. We experienced limited export competition from the Black Sea region compared to other years, as per reports. This was due to the fact that they not only had a smaller supply, but were also affected by export restrictions. For our 2020/2021 crop year, we are going to be looking to China’s continued support in importing Canadian peas at current levels. If so, we could see our pea supplies tighten even more. New crop bids are at $7.00/bu on yellows, $9.00/bu on greens and $8.00/bu on maples.

As of this past Monday, there was still about 3.4% of last year’s barley to be harvested in Saskatchewan. After this week we expect most producers to wrap that last bit of harvest and in many areas, seeding. Alberta seeding progress is strong as well, with a reported 57.4% completion in barley. The feed barley market has been pushing forward with strong prices this last little while. Product trades between $4.00 to $4.50/bu depending on location. Malt barley on the other hand has slowed right down. With sporting events and other entertainment coming to a standstill, we see global demand drop. Malt producers and brewing companies have stopped production to varying degrees. The small craft brewers have been the most affected.  

Strong Chinese demand and easing tensions between the world’s largest economies coupled with slowing US planting pace has offered strength to the soy complex. Local bids are hovering near $10.00/bu picked up being somewhat location dependent. There is some debate as to dry bean new crop seeded acres in the wake of the recent Stats Can report. Industry consensus is that acres are up slightly in response to market signals. Mexican production levels will have the largest impact on US demand for Canadian new crop production. Faba bean seeded acreage is expected to increase for the third straight year to somewhere near 130k acres. Faba old crop marketing opportunities have steadily diminished from the March export peak. New crop values for #2 grades are hanging near $8.00/bu.

The feed wheat market has picked up steam as we get later into the crop year. Prices have strengthened to $5.10-$5.50/bu FOB farm depending on location. Strongest prices are further west with most product heading to southern Alberta. These prices are based on minimum 58 lb wheat with a maximum moisture of 14.8%. We do have homes for product not meeting those specs with discounts to apply. July Minneapolis spring wheat futures have softened a bit from the same time last week and Saskatchewan bids remain around $6.30-$6.40/bu delivered to plant for summertime movement. Prices based on #1 quality and minimum 13.5% protein levels. 

Chickpea crop estimates look to be 30% lower than last year with a substantial carry over. The producer’s reluctance to sell has generated some value to the bid side of the market but these pops of opportunity are short lived and infrequent. Weather conditions across western Canada have been above average with seeding wrapping up and growers have been in good spirits as they contemplate their next moves. Prices for current crop have had a bit of strength with bids moving day to day from $0.27-$0.29/lb FOB for a #2 or better spec. New crop values range from $0.24-$0.28/lb FOB farm with an AOG perking up a bit in certain locations, but the majority are the same as they have been week after week. Sample and feed quality are coming in at $0.12/lb. 

Old crop milling oats remain firm this week at $3.75-$4.25/bu delivered into plant, depending on location. New crop values hover around $3/bu with freight sensitivity and better value for longer shipping periods. Buyers are always looking for off spec quality, but each lot is treated specifically for their down grading factors. Call for possible marketing options.

Lentils markets remain stable for another week. Reds continue to trade as high 30 cents delivered for old crop and 23-24 cents for new crop with an Act of God. Large green lentils remain in that 31-32 cents range for #1/X2, 29-30 cents for #2, and 24 cents for an X3. New crop remains in that 28-29 cent range with an Act of God Small green lentils remaining at 26-27 cents for both old and new crop #1 spec.  Lentil shipments this year are out pacing last years by almost double, this will change what ending stocks were predicted to be at the being of the year. This should help keep current prices stable for both old and new crop as stocks maybe tighter than expected. We may see new crop prices change depending on final seeded acres.  

Canola futures took a bit of a dive late last week with July dropping about $10/mt from $473/mt to just under $460. We have gained a couple bucks back in the last few days but have been mostly trending sideways this past week. Most of last week’s losses can be drawn on a straight line from soybean troubles stemming from escalation on trade issues between US and China (have we wrote this before?). So, the big countries will throw their weight around a bit and everyone on the boat gets to deal with the rocking. Last week our weakened Loonie helped to slow some of our losses but this week the Loonie has pushed up some, which hampered gains in canola following bean strength. Current bids range from $9.35 picked up in yard to $10/bu delivered plant depending on what you’re looking for so not too exciting prices. Our next hurdle to keep an eye on for canola, is the fallout of the extradition case this week and what affect that has on this market as China likely won’t be happy with this result.

Canaryseed pricing continues on the same path this week as last, where old crop continues to trade at $0.28/lb FOB farm for June/July movement. Now, if we roll back the calendar one year, for comparison, spot canary was trading at $0.23/lb. That’s a pretty good spread. At the time on farm stock was plump and now things are more so on the tight end, hence the continued price support. Flipping to new crop, we are seeing firm bids of $0.25/lb FOB farm with some grower targets triggering at $0.26/lb FOB farm on 10bu/acre act of God. Production acres are increasing over last year due to lower carry-in stocks as well, canary has a viable return versus other crops.

Mustard prices remain generally stable this week. Weather, news about projected acres seeded and overseas shipping seem to have little to no effect on the value. It might be a good time to put some new crop on the books at 10 bushels per acre with act of god. There are still some attractively priced contracts available. Yellow mustard sits at 37 cents for spot and new crop. Spot oriental mustard sits at 27 cents for Forge and 25 cents for Cutlass, summer movement now, June to July. New crop is sitting at 29 cents FOB for Forge or Vulcan and 27 cents now for Cutlass. Brown trades at 27 to 28 cents FOB for spot and as high as 29 cents for new crop. Call your merchant for any offers and talk about possible targets.

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.


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