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Rayglen Market Comments – March 3, 2021

The mustard market continues to show strength throughout the winter on both new and old crop. In the latest news, oriental prices and buyer interest have started to perk up as we see bids push closer to the mid-thirties on new crop. Regarding oriental, there is still a current premium for Forge type over Cutlass and/or Vulcan if you happen to be looking at seed and wondering which direction to go. If you are growing oriental and looking for a contract, we can likely find some buyers willing to listen to what value you’re looking for. Brown mustard prices remain in the high 30’s with trades at $0.38 to $0.39/lb hitting the books on old and new crop product. Yellow mustard prices have moved the least but are still at attractive numbers with buyer bids at $0.42/lb on old and new crop product. The big outstanding question will be seeded acres, as reports have so far varied a bit; from sideways to doubling. In office we are hearing many growers indicate, despite very strong prices, we may have trouble getting much elbow space on acres as weed control and dry conditions persist as the main issues of concern.

No new stories to tell in the pea market this week. Yellow stocks are tight and likely will be again for the 2021/2022 marketing year which bodes well for pricing. What we did see last week was a couple of green pea bids at $10.75/bu delivered.  This seemed to be short lived and is tough to find this week. Target pricing for some green pea growers seems to be $10.00/bu picked up and most of our buyers are sitting at $10.00/bu delivered right now. Yellow peas are still holding strong, due to short supplies and product continues to trade at $11.00/bu picked up. We have some new crop bids at $9.50/bu delivered with an act of God, which is also a good starting point to get 10-20bu/ac on the books. New crop green peas are holding at $9.00/bu picked up, while new crop maple peas have bids of $9-9.50/bu picked up. As mentioned, several times, China is the source keeping the pea market strong. If China continues steady buying into next year, prices will stay strong and supplies as a result will remain tight. However, political tensions can change on the drop of a dime. We recommend locking in some bushels of new crop yellow peas at these historically high values.

Not much new to report on the forefront of the barley world. Prices remain around the same as previous weeks with the availability to get anywhere from $6.00 – $6.25/bu FOB farm depending on location. The malt market demand seems to be even quieter, with not much to report on trades or offers going out. Our thoughts would be: maltsters are hanging tough so they don’t have to overpay just to keep up with current feed values… when you can source out $5.00/bu new crop feed, it makes it hard to be competitive and still make a profit. As we slowly start creeping closer to 2021 seeding there might not be a huge push from buyers to be locking up new crop. Given the time length, many sellers may want to sit back and address what they are seeing out there. If you are sitting on the fence right now and wondering if you should lock some product in at a $5.00/bu value, our opinion is, get at least 25% on the books. After all, given the price of seed and inputs, locking in at $5.00/bu FOB puts you into the green. Given the current market values on all commodities, having some of the farm hedged with new crop contracts is a great idea. At the end of the day locking in some feed barley is a lot less risky than some of the other crops and you’re getting a great price as well. As always if you are needing seed or any additional information on new and old crop contracts reach out to a Rayglen rep today!

The wheat market is holding steady for another week. Feed wheat prices continue to trade between $7.00 to $7.75/bu FOB depending on freight with the best values seen in Southwest Sask. and Alberta. The milling CWRS market has been very strong as well with bids for 12.5% protein ranging between $7.70 to $7.90/bu delivered depending on delivery month.  For 13.5% protein, prices range between $7.85 to $8.05/bu delivered, again depending on delivery month. The new crop durum market has been at a bit of a standstill with prices ranging from $8.25/bu to $8.50/bu FOB farm in the Southeast part of Saskatchewan.  Old crop durum bids have been indicated between $8.50 to $9.00/bu delivered in a variety of areas.

Chickpea markets were seeing a bit of a bump last week, but this has not turned into the rally everyone was hoping for. Rumors of a second tender have been squashed and interest levels on the buy side have dropped about $0.02/lb. Talks of a 24% reduction in acres for the coming season have no one flinching as export numbers are low and stock still high. In global news, India reported an estimated 5% increase in production from last years Rabi crop, but not everyone is on board with that evaluation. Late dry weather and recent price gains have some believing that the increase is not quite as reported. All eyes are on export markets as that is what will bring some life back to chickpeas. Old Crop #2 Kabuli bids are around $0.30/lb FOB farm May-June and new crop still at $0.27-$0.28/lb FOB farm Sept.-Dec. movement. Sample/feed chickpeas are unchanged at $0.19-.20/lb dependant on downgrading factors. If Desi’s are in your rotation, give us a call as this market is more specific and requires some digging.

Flax prices remain sideways this week with nearby movement in the $22.00/bu FOB farm range, while further out delivery is bid at $23.00-24.00/bu. New crop flax sits at $16.00-$16.50/bu picked up with act of God for delivery in 2021. Analysts expect more Canadian flax acres to be seeded this year, however how much of an increase is still unknown. We suggest getting some product hedged at these very attractive new crop values. Now switching gears to world markets, 2021 acreage is still uncertain in the Black Sea region, if there is an increase of 5%, paired with 5-year average yields, we could see their production rise by 23%. This may not bode well for values either. Flax deliveries have slowed the last couple weeks and if there are large amounts of Black Sea supplies tied up at the Chinese border, then spot prices could go back down. The trouble is that the timing of their release is up in the air. With these record high prices there could be other factors we are not aware of as well.

Lentils are mixed this week, with some markets on the rise and others on the descent. Red lentils had a positive start with bids pushing to $0.31/lb delivered in Northwest and Southwest Sask. This warrants $0.30/lb FOB farm in many locations. New crop reds hold steady, now priced at $0.27/lb with AOG or $0.28/lb on a deferred delivery contract. Most buyers have adjusted their large green lentil bid as they feel there is more product available than originally thought. The bid for #2 large greens currently tops out at $0.38/lb delivered for April/May/June movement. Word out of India is that the pigeon pea crop is struggling; this may cause an increased need for green lentils in the near term. The increase may be limited due to logistics as we are already booking lentils into June, but it is still something to keep an eye on.  New crop large greens are trading $0.31/lb basis #2 grade and $0.29/lb for X3 grade, FOB farm, with an act of God.

This week has brought modest gains in the canola futures markets after a steep dive at the end of last week. At time of writing, May futures are at $756.50/MT which is down from $764.50/MT at the same time last week. July futures followed a very similar trend and are at $720/MT, compared to $730.50/MT last week. Last week’s testing of limit down losses mostly came from speculators dropping their long positions as canola was beginning to look overbought. Weakness in soy contributed to the bearish market movements. As mentioned above, we have seen a small recovery this week across the futures board. This is reflective of the fact that on farm canola stocks are becoming very tight and crush margins are still high enough for domestic crushers to keep buying. Gains in soy this week also helped push canola back up. Local basis levels are still very aggressive for both old and new crop and November futures are still holding around $604/MT, down just slightly from last week.

Canaryseed is very much the same as last week. We continue to see the market holding strong, but buyers are starting to push out their movement windows for the highest bids. Prompt movement is becoming very hard to find, if you can find it at all, with most posting April-May 2021. Bids this week are sitting at $0.32/lb FOB farm, which is still a very attractive value. If you are needing quicker movement, talk to your merchant about posting an offer slightly under $0.32/lb as this may catch some buyer interest. New crop values are still sitting at $0.28/lb FOB farm, with an act of God. Now, with the acres projected to go up, getting 10bu/acre on the books doesn’t sound like a bad idea. Seed is also still available if you are looking at getting into canary this year or wish to update variety.

We are still seeing attractive spot prices on old crop milling oats with bids around that $4.25/bu picked up on the farm mark. Perks are seen as bin location moves closer to Manitoba. New crop pricing remains solid for this upcoming year with roughly $3.60/bu picked up for the last quarter of the year and around $4.00/bu picked up for the beginning of 2022. We should get a bit of a preview as to seeding intentions once the crop insurance numbers come out. It will be interesting to see if there is much of a change in oat acres with strong new crop prices, like barley, looking to steal the show. On the feed side, we continue to see trading done at $3.50-$4.00/bu picked up on the farm for heavy product.

US soybean futures are surging with the standard profit-taking cycles of institutional traders. The fundamental underpinnings of the market remain bullish. Brazil is struggling with poor harvest quality. Chinese Dalian soybean futures hit record highs amid continuing reports of African swine fever. US domestic monthly soybean crush rates continue to defy any demand rationing theories. Local soybean bids now hover around $16.00/bu picked up depending on location. The faba bean market remains the same and maintains focus on domestic feed demand. Feed faba bids are in the range of $8.00/bu FOB farm, location dependent. Dry bean market prices remain well supported. Future market direction will come from Mexico and Argentina harvests. New crop dry bean contracts are available at attractive price levels. Contact Rayglen to book your acres.

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.


Rayglen Market Comments – February 24, 2021

The barley game continues to be a strong market. Feed values are currently trading at an average of $6.00/bu at the bin and if you are still sitting on some, now is the time to market it. This value could very well trade 25-50 cents higher pending your location and the quantity you have to sell. The malt market remains quiet as maltsters try to peg down what they are going to have left to move for old crop as we push into the Spring months. New crop feed is still sitting right around the $5.00/bu value which is also an area dependant figure. Show us what you have as there might be wiggle room in value based on location and tonnage. There is not much to speak of on new crop malt, but it is safe to say you could target the $5.50/bu range today. Although Metcalfe and Copeland still seem to trade as the Malt variety of choice, the current market spread between feed vs. malt should have you heavily considering seeding one of the newer varieties of Malt barley. Synergy, Connect, etc. leave you with two windows of opportunity as you can get close to, if not the same yield on these as some of the feed varieties.  You now have the option of pursuing feed and malt markets rather than just one or the other. Our general thought is, now is the time to sell what remains in the bins because although the prices of feed are high, we can’t say for how much longer. Remember that the market tends to slowly rise on the way up but crash on the way down. Don’t miss out.

Tight ending stocks is the main discussion within the pea market, and not just for Canada but for the global market as well. Canadian ending stocks will be low this year and even if acres rise this growing season, stocks could remain tight into the 2021-2022 marketing season. This, of course, is dependent on Chinese demand and the assumption of no trade disruptions occurring due to political issues. The Black Sea Region is also tight on supply which is holding favorable for values. However, this will also lead to an acreage increase for this Region, which will affect the Canadian market, as they also have access to Chinese markets. Current bids on yellow peas sit at $11.00/bu FOB, with new crop at $9.00/bu FOB farm including an Act of God. Green peas are priced at $9.25-9.50/bu picked up on old and $9.00/bu picked up on new, also containing an Act of God. Maple peas had a slight increase on old crop to $10.50/bu picked, while new crop remains at $9.00/bu picked up with an Act of God.

Yet again the feed wheat market continues its upwards trend with product trading in the $7.25 to $7.75/bu FOB farm range across the Prairies. Firm bids depend on the location of the grain and freight costs, with the highest bids being seen as you move South and West towards feed lot alley. That said, opportunities do arise for feed wheat to go East, so keep in touch with your merchant. The milling CWRS market is strong as well, with #1, 12.5% protein bids ranging from $7.70 to $7.90/bu delivered. You can still get a touch more for 13.5% protein as bids range from $7.85 to $8.05/bu delivered this week. New crop durum has been quiet over the last little while, but we suspect growers can still get some product on the books at $8.25/bu to $8.50/bu FOB farm in the Southeast part of Saskatchewan. Old crop durum values vary between $8.50 to $9.00/bu delivered in many areas.

After a fantastic run up over the past week, May and July canola futures have dipped slightly back today. At time of writing, May futures are at $764.50/MT, compared to $710/MT at the same time last week. July futures are at $730.50/MT, compared to last week when they were at $678/MT. The story has not changed with the big increases earlier in the week due to tight supplies and the need for high prices to ration demand. This continues to drive the market up. There was some support from soybean markets rising, but not to the same extent as canola. Political news kept eyes on canola futures this week as Canada’s house of commons voted to declare that China is committing genocide against Uighurs and other Muslims in its Western Region. China has used commodities such as canola as a political weapon in the past and we will have to wait to see if they use them again.

Flax bids remain sideways this week and depending on movement time frame, range anywhere from $21.00-$23.00/bu picked up on farm. New crop has also flattened out around $16-$16.50/bu FOB farm with an Act of God. We know prices must flatten off at some point, however, there is no consistent pattern from previous years of when a downturn is to be expected. Flax values globally are up from previous years and thus far we have no reports of rationing demand yet. Demand from the EU and US is keeping prices at bay for now. The main risk in this market is flax held up at the Chinese border from the Black Sea Region. Once that flax starts to move, there will be more availability to the market. Looking further down the road, new crop acres are also expected to increase in key markets, which could have adverse effects.

The oat market remains strong this week and factors like the pandemic and new importers are not only driving values but holding them as well. We have milling buyers today that are looking for product around that $4.25/bu range picked up on a #1CW, depending on freight costs. We also have feed buyers that are looking as well, with values around $3-3.50/bu picked up on the farm. New crop is also strong with bids around $4/bu FOB farm, not including AOG. The seeded acreage reports do show that oats will be down this year, so putting targets slightly above market bids may not be a bad idea.

Canaryseed continues its holding pattern this week. Currently, buyers are really looking at getting some new crop acres on the books for Fall. Values today are sitting at $0.28/lb FOB farm, with an Act of God on 10bu/acre. Based on recent years, this is a great starting point to get some of your acres locked up. If historical values aren’t enough, the seeded acreage report estimates almost a 10% increase in plantings from last year. Keep in mind we still have seed available with delivery to farm options as well. Old crop bids continue to hover around $0.32/lb FOB farm for deferred Spring/Summer delivery or $0.31/lb for prompt movement.

Soybean futures found continued support due to shipping delays in Brazil & crude oil lending strength to veg oil. Furthermore, the broken Brazilian energy sector is starving farmers of diesel and delaying both harvest and planting. Local soybean bids now hover around $15.50 bu picked up depending on location. The faba bean market remains largely focused on domestic feed demand. Feed faba bids are in the range of $8.00/bu FOB farm, location dependent. Dry bean market prices remain well supported. For future price direction one will need to pay attention to the Mexico Winter harvest (Mar.-June) and Argentina (May-June). New crop dry bean contracts are available at attractive price levels. Contact Rayglen to book now!

Chickpea markets continue to see the upward push this week, with trades happening on #2 large Kabuli’s around $0.33/lb FOB farm for March/April movement. These values are not widespread among all customers and it is expected to come back down once the World Food tender is filled. Buyer predictions all agree that the chickpea market will move up and down as tenders come and go. Currently there is not a single steady importing country that has presented itself to keep the momentum going for the unforeseeable. New crop has not congruently seen the same uptick and remains around $0.25-$0.27/lb FOB farm with an AOG for Sept.-Dec. delivery based on freight sensitivity. Sample chickpeas are still hovering around $0.17-$0.19/lb FOB farm as well, depending on downgrading factors.

Lentil markets have softened a little since last week but remain attractive. Large green lentils are now trading at $0.38/lb delivered with an unwillingness of buyers to push higher. That is down a cent from last week as the feeling amongst buyers is that there are more green lentils available than previously thought. Small greens are still trading up to $0.35/lb FOB farm for #1 quality while new crop is bid at the $0.28/lb FOB with an Act of God. Reds lentils are quiet this week with reports of some buyers dropping their bid to $0.28/lb delivered and rumors of more to come. As we get closer to the Indian harvest, we will likely see some pressure put on Canadian values. New crop reds are still trading anywhere between $0.26-$0.265/lb FOB farm with an Act of God. Right now, every buyer wants to get some coverage going into next Fall, but once those acres are filled, the market may pause until later in Summer.

After what has been a very exciting couple of months in bids, we now see no change. This week we saw stable mustard pricing on both old and new crop. The battle for acres continues as the general market has been on a tear and we don’t expect that to change in the near future. Spot bids are still showing $0.41-$0.42/lb on yellow mustard, $0.37-$0.39/lb on brown mustard and $0.30-$0.32/lb on Oriental mustard. Talk to your merchant about offers if you have a target, as we may be able to negotiate on price and movement. New crop bids are strong as well with yellow sitting at $0.42/lb and brown up at $0.38/lb now, FOB farm with an Act of God. Forge or Vulcan Oriental are showing stronger bids as well and have traded as high as $0.34/lb for Sept. to July 2022 with an Act of God. Cutlass is now at $0.32/lb for new crop picked up with an AOG, which is a very strong starting point. Please call us to discuss all your new crop movement times and seed options. Seed has been selling steady, so give us a call if you are in need; we have great prices on all colors and varieties of mustard delivered to your yard, treated or un-treated.

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.


Rayglen Market Comments – February 17, 2021

Yellow peas continue to be one of the most sought-after commodities this week as buyers line up to purchase product. That said, the rally continues, and growers are able to take advantage of historically high pricing. China’s continued demand remains to be the main driving force behind this market, and with that, comes a dwindling supply. Bids now reach highs of $11.00/bu picked up with movement going into April – May. Green peas have pulled up slightly too, with bids hovering around $10.00/bu delivered. Maple peas are mostly unchanged, but we do have one bid at $10.75/bu delivered; about 25 cents higher than we have been seeing. The premium for yellows has slowly pulled these two prices up, however they are still lagging comparatively. New Crop yellow peas are indicated at $8.50 – 9.00/bu picked up with an Act of God, while new crop green and maple peas hover around $9.00/bu picked up.

Barley markets remain virtually unchanged this week. Feed values are still trending around that $6.00/bu mark for product sitting in the bin. Based on recent trades, we suggest targeting the $5.00 mark for new crop to give yourself a good starting point for the next harvest. The malt side of things is still quiet with values hovering near feed price. If you have good quality malt and can find higher bids than feed, now is a great time to consider moving it before the weather starts to warm up and you risk dormancy dropping off in the bin. These are some of the highest values we have seen for feed and malt in a few years, so the general suggestion is: don’t miss the train! Prices may be good now and holding out for an extra 10-25 cents may sound enticing, but keep in mind that if these prices do fall off, a $1/bu – $2/bu decline overnight is not unheard of. Take some time to consider signing up new crop barley as well. The per acre return at current value is trending at the top.  

Feed wheat continues to hold strong with values trading between $7.20 to $7.85/bu FOB farm across the Prairies. The pricing depends on location and freight costs. Usually, the closer you are to Southern Alberta the better the price is, but opportunity does arise for product to head East. Make sure you keep in touch with your favorite merchant for updates. The milling CWRS market is considerably strong as well, with #1, 12.5% protein bids ranging between $7.70 to $7.90/bu delivered. Premiums are still being seen on 13.5% protein with bids at $7.90 to $8.05/bu delivered this week.  New crop durum contracting has slowed down this week, but we suspect that growers can still capture $8.25/bu to $8.50/bu FOB farm on target in Southeast Sask. The spot durum market now trades between $8.50 to $9.00/bu delivered plant in many areas.

Chickpea markets see a bump this week with buyers taking interest in #2 Kabuli’s at $0.30-0.31/lb FOB farm. It is believed a World Food tender, that was bid on last week, is wholly responsible for this bump and once that position is filled, there will be a return to previous market levels. New crop values are unchanged at $0.25-$0.26/lb (Act of God vs DDC) FOB farm for a #2 quality. A bit of good news out of Russia as their export numbers have dropped significantly from 250k MT last year to 139k MT. This could mean opportunity for the small caliber into Pakistan for Canadian markets. Feed chickpeas maintain levels of $0.17-$0.19/lb depending on the down grading factor. It is believed there are not a lot of poor-quality chickpeas out there, so if that is something you are holding onto, give a call for pricing information.

Soybean futures spiked the other day based on a sharp increase in domestic soybean crush rates; driven by a robust US meat sector. Untimely rains have delayed the South American soybean harvest thus further stoking an already hot market. Local soybean bids now hover around $15.50 bu picked up depending on location. The Faba bean market remains focused on domestic feed demand. Feed faba bids are near $7.50/bu – $7.75/bu FOB farm, location dependent. Despite a large North American dry bean crop, the market remains well supported based on decent export demand. New crop dry bean contracts are available at attractive price levels. Contact Rayglen to book your acres.

Flax exports have been the highest since 2014/15, which has kept prices supported. In the month of December, Belgium was the top destination for flax followed by China. Prices still ranging anywhere from $20.00-$23.00/bu picked up, depending on location and movement. New crop is bid at $16.00/bu FOB with an Act of God with some chatter of potentially higher bids when accompanied by a longer delivery window. Latest import volumes from China show smaller volumes coming from Russia which could mean there is still flax held up at the Chinese border that has yet to be reported. Flax prices in the Black Sea Region have also continued to climb which should entice more seeded acres. At some point the market will flatten off or take a downturn, so if you are unsold on flax, look at locking some in as the highest bids are for delivery into Summer months ahead.

Canaryseed is still a hot commodity this week. We still have buyers looking for old crop in all areas of the Province with bids around $0.31-$0.32/lb FOB farm, depending on freight and movement period. Keep in mind as we inch closer to March, road bans will come into effect, so please be aware of that when you are posting an offer or doing up a contract. New crop is at $0.28/lb FOB Farm, with an Act of God on the first 10bu/acre. With the acres projected to be up from last year, this is a fairly good place to start your marketing. Even signing up some acres and leaving the rest uncontracted is an option to explore to mitigate some of that downside risk. Once again, we do have to mention we have a good source of seed still available, so talk with your merchant on variety and pricing.  

Last weeks StatsCan stock report reiterated what was widely perceived in the oat community: that stocks are comfortable and there is no major pressure on them as of now. Numbers show that stock is down only 0.2% from the previous year with more product having vacated Sask. and Alberta than Manitoba. So, making sales on some product at these strong prices makes sense before buyers have fulfilled most of their need for the Spring onward timeframe. Pricing in that high $3’s to over $4/bu, depending on farm location just makes sense. Not much change from last week on the feed side as pricing remains in that $3 – $3.50/bu range. Looking for some new crop pricing? Give your Rayglen merchant a call to discuss options.

May and July canola futures saw a big rise over the past week and that strength showed up in local bids for Summertime movement. At time of writing, May futures are at $709.80/MT compared to $682/MT at the same time last week. July futures are sitting at $678.60/MT compared to $654/MT last week.  Much of the strength we’re seeing in canola over the past week comes from bullish soybean and soyoil pricing. Adding to the strength is the expected tight ending stocks of Canadian canola, with buyers looking to lock up what they need for June and July. November futures have also seen a steady rise to $574.80/MT which can only bode well for local new crop bids.

Lentils had another good week of trading, but as we write we have reports of bids softening in certain markets. Last week, large greens traded as high as $0.39/lb FOB farm, but this morning the majority of buyers have pulled back slightly, and it seems that $0.38/lb is the realistic value today. Small green lentils are holding their value, trading at $0.33/lb FOB farm or $0.34/lb delivered plant. This market remains unchanged with rumors of bids potentially hitting $0.35/lb in some areas. We suggest growers throw up a firm target if this value would trigger a sale. Red lentils seem to be teetering on that $0.30/lb delivered range. We still have some opportunities to make sales at $0.30 delivered, but one buyer has already pulled out and told us this week that reds may be hitting the top of the market as India is starting to lose interest at these price levels. In the last year India has had 3 prices spikes over $750/MT (USD) landed at port; the highest being just shy of $800/MT (USD). All of those spikes have been short lived, with prices falling back to around the $725/MT (USD) shortly after. Today we near that mark, but with the harvest in India right around the corner, we are unsure how long these prices will last before trending down again. 

Simply put, supply and demand continue to keep mustard very strong. Again, brown mustard shows strength this week with another bump in price. Spot bids are still showing $0.41-$0.42/lb on yellow mustard, $0.37-$0.39/lb on brown mustard and $0.30-$0.32/lb on Oriental mustard. Talk to your merchant about offers if you have a target, as we may be able to negotiate on price and movement. New crop bids are strong as well with yellow sitting at $0.42/lb and brown up at $0.38/lb now, FOB farm with an Act of God. Forge or Vulcan Oriental are showing stronger bids as well and have traded as high as $0.34/lb for Sept. to July 2022 with an Act of God. Cutlass is now at $0.32/lb for new crop picked up with an AOG, which is a very strong starting point. Please call us to discuss all your new crop movement times and seed options. Seed has been going strong so far; we have great prices on all colors and varieties of mustard delivered to your yard, treated or un-treated.

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.


Rayglen Market Comments – February 10, 2021

Yellow peas took another bump in pricing as supplies continue to dwindle. Old crop now trades at $10.00 – $10.50/bu picked up with movement getting pushed out to Spring. Green pea demand appears to be slowly increasing as more buyers will look at $9.50/bu picked up ($10.00/bu delivered) this week. As per reports, China continues to be the dominant buyer, accounting for 80% + of Canadian pea exports in recent months. The Black Sea Region has seen pea prices move up, which will motivate growers to boost acres. We can expect this to increase competition in Chinese markets, which may soften pricing in the future. In new crop markets, green peas remain at $9.00/bu picked up, while yellow peas are trading at $8.50 – 9.00/bu FOB (the premium is for a glyphosate free market). Maple peas have spot bids at $10.00/bu picked up, while $9.00/bu picked trades on production with an Act of God. 

A slight jump in the flax market this week. Old crop prices range from $20.00-$23.00/bu picked up depending on location and movement timeframe. New crop offers are also triggering around that $16.00/bu mark, picked up with an Act of God. Strong exports and tight supplies have driven this market to hit historically high values. For those with flax still in the bins and/or considering planting new crop acres and still wondering where the top of this market is, keep in mind it’s a lot tougher to catch a falling knife. Selling in increments is a good marketing play and we urge growers to get some product booked as the downside is much larger than the up. Canadian flax acres will have some competition from overseas and likely to the South of us, all things to keep in mind if you are still debating on whether or not to lock in some new crop.

The barley world has not changed much over the past few weeks with the biggest push still being on the feed side of things. Old crop values trade around $6.00/bu picked up with the availability to lock in new crop at the $5.00/bu range FOB farm. If you are starting to toy with the idea of going this route, think fast; everyone is jumping at the bit and feed barley seed is becoming tricky to obtain. However, that leaves you with a great opportunity to try out one of these new high yielding malt varieties.   The worst case scenario is that it doesn’t make malt, but now you can still sell it into a feed market. Given current pricing on feed however, that wouldn’t be such a bad scenario. Last year malt was trading around the $5.00/bu range, but we’ve surpassed that this year and feed carries a lot less risk. As it stands now, maltsters have been quiet, but a few are bidding $6.00/bu on new crop to try and compete against the feed markets. Our suggestion: seed a newer variety malt and pencil in the return at feed value to start. If that return makes you happy, which it likely will, then come harvest time if your product makes malt spec, you now have two markets to explore.

Yet again the wheat market continues shine. Feed wheat prices now trade between $7.25 to $7.90/bu FOB farm across the Prairies. Location and freight costs will determine firm bids, but as a rule of thumb, the closer you are to Southern AB, the better values will be. Milling CWRS has been trading between $7.70 to $7.90/bu delivered for a #1 with 13.5% pro, while the 12.5% market shows values between $7.65/bu to $7.80/bu delivered. Durum for fall delivery has been trading between $8.25/bu to $8.50/bu FOB farm. For new crop durum, the best bids are seen in Southeast SK. At these values, it is not a bad idea to get something on the books to hedge downside risk. Spot prices on durum have been indicated between $8.50/bu to $9.00/bu delivered in many cases this week.

It was another hot week in the canaryseed market as buyers look more aggressively at getting new crop on the books for Fall. Values are now being bid around $0.28/lb FOB farm, with an Act of God. This is a good starting point to get 10bu/acre locked up, seeing as the projected acreage is up almost 10% from last year.  Old crop bids are still floating around $0.31/lb FOB farm for quicker movement, and possibly $0.32/lb FOB farm for delivery into Spring/Summer. Offers are always a good idea if you have a price in mind when markets are volatile. We also have many seed options still available, so if you find prices are attractive and you want to get in on the action, let us help you out!

It is estimated there will be a 24% drop in chickpea acres compared to last year, but we expect to see a good carryover in stock unless spot bids move significantly. A few weeks ago, the thought of a significant move seemed moot, but as we write, spot contracts are now trading at $0.30/lb FOB farm. Keep in mind, chickpea demand is limited, not limitless, so now may be a good time to get some product signed up. Feed/sample chickpeas continue to see interest at $0.19/lb off the farm and new crop values still hover at $0.25/lb FOB farm with an AOG. If chickpeas are something you are thinking about moving, call to discuss your options today!

The oat market remains strong as North America’s appetite looks to have increased an estimated 5-10% due to Covid. That coupled with strong importing from the likes of Chile, who is typically not in the oat mix, but has stepped up to the plate and consumed a large piece of the pie, has really help to strengthen pricing. With all that said, milling prices hold strong with bids around $4/bu picked up on the farm, give or take depending on farm location. New crop is also trading strong with $4/bu picked up trading in East Central Sask for Jan.-Mar. movement 2022. Supply and demand charts do peg this commodity to drop in seeded acres so it should prove to be interesting just how much oat acres do pull back. On the feed side, we still see trades with a range between $3 – $3.50/bu picked up on the farm.

Soybean prices are following corn today. Trade overshot the landing on shrinking soybean stocks and market adjustments are occurring today. That said, the U.S. could run out of soybeans before 2021 harvest. Local soybean bids now hover around $15.50/bu picked up depending on location. Faba bean export bids remain virtually non-existent due to a return to global trade normal. Production in Australia and parts of Europe are back on track and importers are falling back into previously established buying relationships. Feed faba bids are near $7.50/bu FOB farm location dependent. Current crop dry bean bids have come off harvest highs due to abundant North American supply. We continue to hear reports of new crop seed shortage due to poor germination. New crop dry bean contracts are available at attractive price levels. Contact Rayglen to book your acres.

After trending slightly upwards for most of the past week, May and July canola futures have fallen back down today, but are still higher than the same time last week. May futures are at $682/MT, compared to $674/MT last week. July futures are at $654/MT, compared to $650/MT last week. Most of the losses today are coming from weakness in soybean futures as well as palm oil dropping slightly. The CDN dollar is up slightly as well and is contributing to losses. November canola futures continue to trend upwards and sit at $563/MT, compared to $553/MT last week. This is translating to local new crop bids above $12/bu and are worth taking a look at if cash flow will be needed come harvest. 

The lentil market has been stronger again this week as bids on large greens creep up to the high thirties on old crop #2 product. This should, and has signaled some sales again for growers. New crop large green values are up again a bit as well with bids for #2 or better at $0.30-$0.31/lb picked up on farm with an Act of God. This week reds are trading at $0.29 FOB or $0.30/lb delivered to plant on product still in the bin. New crop values continue to trade around $0.25/lb FOB with an Act of God or $0.26/lb on a deferred delivery contract. Small greens have shown a touch more interest as of late with some #1 old crop bids up to $0.32/lb FOB farm.  If you’re in the mood to price new crop we have some buyer interest at $0.28/$0.25/lb picked up on farm for #1/#2 quality with an Act of God. Indications from analyst’s state that they are expecting lentil acres to retract based on strong values in other markets grabbing acres along with losses to disease pressure, but we still expect lentils to maintain a strong presence here in this office.

Again, as expected, the mustard market remains very solid. Spot bids are still showing $0.41-$0.42/lb on Yellow mustard, $0.37-$0.38/lb on Brown mustard and $0.30-$0.32/lb on Oriental mustard. Talk to your merchant about offers if you have a target, as we may be able to negotiate on price and movement. New crop bids are strong as well with yellow sitting at $0.42/lb and brown at $0.36/lb FOB farm with an Act of God. Forge or Vulcan Oriental are showing stronger bids as well and have traded as high as $0.34/lb for Sept. to July 2022 with an Act of God. Cutlass is now at $0.32/lb for new crop picked up with an AOG, which is a very strong starting point. Please call us to discuss all your new crop movement times and seed options. We have all varieties of seed, either treated, or un-treated and our prices include delivery to your yard. Call now as seed has been going fast this year.

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.


Rayglen Market Comments – February 3, 2021

Wheat markets remain strong in Canada as we push forward into this new year. Feed wheat has been trading between $7.00 to $7.50/bu FOB farm across the majority of the prairies and although prices will fluctuate depending on freight costs, it’s safe to say these are some attractive values. Milling CWRS has been trading between $7.65 to $7.90/bu delivered for a #1 with 13.5% protein, while 12.5% protein product is bid at $7.45 to $7.70/bu delivered. We continue to trickle in new crop durum for early 2022 delivery in the Southeast & South-Central part of the province at $8.25/bu to $8.50/bu FOB farm pending trucking cost.  These are great values to start to hedge some production. Spot business has perked up a bit this week as well with $8.50/bu to $9.00/bu trading in the Southeast part of the province. It is not a bad idea to take advantage of these high prices while they are around.

There have been no signs of wavering in flax markets this week as bids continue to come in at $20.00/bu picked up, with the possibility of strong values if you’re able to defer delivery into the summer months. That being said, if you still have product in the bins, it would be a good idea to be heavily sold. New crop brown flax prices vary from $15.00-$15.50/bu FOB with act of God. Signing acres up at these values takes some risk off the table by hedging the downside risk. Demand from China has been growing but they are also diversifying their flax sourcing. We could see some additional acres put in this year with these prices, not just in Canada but in other markets such as the Black Sea Region. Keep in mind that flax moving from the Black Sea Region into China has had some restrictions at the border recently and it’s only a matter of time before those issues get resolved. For those seeding yellow flax, call our office as we have a couple of options on old and new crop.

Acreage projections have been released for the 2021/2022 marketing year and it is no surprise that pea acres are up slightly, with yellows seeing most of the gain. Acre forecasts show peas increasing to 4.4 million, as per StatsCan. Turning to the export channel and if China remains a dominant buyer, pea supplies are expected to remain tight. Therefore, this could show a positive sign for pea pricing and hopefully increase green pea values too, if acres for greens are in fact down, as projected. For current pricing, yellow peas are still seeing $10.00/bu picked up bids in a few areas, while green peas increased slightly to $9.50/bu picked up ($10.00/bu delivered). Maple pea bids remain at $10.00/bu picked up in a few areas as well, but buyers are hit and miss. For new crop, yellow peas are trading at $8.50 – 9.00/bu picked up (the latter is for a glyphosate free market). Green peas and maple peas are both $9.00/bu picked up on new crop.

It is no secret that several growers will be dropping chickpea acres for the coming season due to disease, price and a lack of real optimism for the market. It is estimated there will be a drop of 24% compared to last year, leaving acres at 225,000. This is still a decent number if the stocks are accurate from previous years, but that is still in question.  Buyers have been showing some interest in purchasing again and have started asking what it might take for growers to open the bins. Our thoughts are for the immediate,  “come together” price is $0.30/lb FOB farm for a #2 Kabuli. Keep in mind, chickpea demand is limited, not limitless. Feed/Sample chickpeas saw a bit of a hike with interest at $0.19/lb off the farm. New crop values still hover at $0.25/lb FOB farm with an AOG. If chickpeas are something you are thinking about moving, call to discuss offers and options.

While March canola futures continue their volatile ways, local buyers seem to be more focused on the May and July futures as they buy for the summer months. Keeping this in mind, May futures are at $674.40/MT which is down slightly from last week when they were at $677/MT. July futures are at $650.90/MT which is sideways from the same time last week.  Soybeans and most oilseed markets are feeling pressure as South America gets closer to harvesting their soybean crop. Canola markets are feeling the effects a bit less due to low Canadian stocks and the inevitable need to ration demand of those stocks. New crop canola bids are still slightly above $12.00/bu depending on local basis.

Canaryseed continues to hold strong for another week. Spot bids this week have fallen back to $0.31/lb FOB Farm for quick movement, but if you are in the right freight area and can wait until March shipment,  you may be able to capture $0.32/lb FOB Farm.  New crop prices are strong with bids at $0.27/lb FOB farm with Act of God. The Canadian Seeded Acreage Projections came out with canaryseed acres up almost 10% from last year. Therefore, getting some acres locked up at 10bu/acre might not be such a bad idea and a pretty good starting point for next crop year. Also note, we still have a good supply of seed available if you are looking. With the markets so up and down the last few weeks, talk to your merchant on posting an offer if you have a specific number in mind. Offers don’t always trade, but it’s still worth a shot.

The milling oat market continues to be a solid play as there are bids over $4/bu picked up on the farm for Spring movement in East Central Sask. Pricing is still solid in other regions, so call your Rayglen merchant for location specific pricing. If you are looking to lock in some tonnage on new crop, let us know as there is buyer interest around that $3.60/bu delivered in for Sept.-Oct. movement with Jan. 2022 values at $4/bu delivered in. The closer to East Sask.,  the better. On the feed side, something to keep an eye out for this last while has been increasing support for feed oats moving to feedlots due to the strong price of corn and other feed grains. Bids continue to hover in that $3 – $3.50/bu range with the ideal weight being 40lbs/bu, accompanied with quick movement. 

The mustard market has remained strong in recent weeks as spot bids are still showing $0.41-$0.42/lb on Yellow mustard, $0.36-$0.37 on Brown mustard and $0.30-$0.32 on Oriental mustard. If you have product in the bin and you’re looking to capitalize on today’s values, let us know what your target price is as there is some negotiable points on value or movement that can be explored as well. New crop mustard values are pretty in line with the spot values and one would presume that would encourage some acreage increase this year, but very dry conditions and strength in many other areas of the marketplace are quelling those fires at the moment. Acres in the USA on yellow are still getting some attention, so if you are thinking that these prices may go wild yet, keep in mind we are not the only place in the world that can grow this stuff and higher prices will attract competition.

The soybean market gained what it lost yesterday, but overall is positioned 70c/bu down from mid Jan. highs. There is still plenty of unease in the soybean market regarding South American harvest. The general sense is the Brazilian crop could potentially set records. Low US carryout has the market antsy and eager to see the upcoming USDA WASDE report next week. Local soybean bids now hover around $14.50-$15.00 bu picked up depending on location. Faba bean export bids remain virtually non-existent due to a return to global trade normal. Production in Australia and parts of Europe are back on track and importers are falling back into previously established buying relationships. Feed faba bids are near $7.50/bu FOB farm location dependent. Current crop dry bean bids have come off harvest highs due to abundant North American supply. We continue to hear reports of new crop seed shortage due to poor germination. New crop dry bean contracts are available at attractive price levels. Contact Rayglen to book your acres.

Lentil markets continue to strengthen this week. Large greens lentils are up to $0.36/lb picked up on farm in some locations, with new crop trading at $0.30/lb FOB for #2 or better quality, including an Act of God. Red lentils are trading at $0.30/lb delivered plant, with new crop bid between $0.24/lb to $0.26/lb. The difference in new crop values depend on grower preferences: deferred delivery contracts vs Act of God or FOB farm vs delivered. Small greens have been trading between $0.31-$0.32 delivered this week, while new crop trades between $0.27-$0.28 for a #1 and $0.25-$0.26 for a #2 with Act of God, picked up on farm. New crop prices are strong as buyers fight against many other commodities which also show good returns for the fall. Buyers want to secure acres/production and once they do, we could see prices take a dramatic drop or disappear altogether until we see what moisture and crop conditions look like.

Barley markets remain the same as previous weeks. There is still a huge push into the feed markets for barley sitting in bins, with bids ranging anywhere from $5.50/bu to $6.25/bu FOB farm, location and time frame dependant. New crop feed is roughly the same story and you can pencil in $5.00/bu, give or take pending area, for the 2021 harvest. All the talk is on feed, feed, feed without much to say on the malt side of business these days. Given the number of acres signed up in 2020, maltsters are still pushing to clean their production contracts up before they start heavily targeting new crop. Rumblings are about that you can get around $6.00/bu delivered as malt price, but at the end of the day do you go with what’s easy and target some new crop feed pricing or push to make malt? Some of the newer malt varieties give you a great option to explore both worlds. The extra yield you can obtain might warrant getting rid of some of the older Metcalfe and Copeland and start thinking about the future. A year such as this is a great opportunity to do so. If you pencil in the yield difference alongside the price of feed right now, getting some new seed just may, and more than likely will, put more money back into your pocket at the end of the day. Whether you get $5.00/bu and sell it for malt, or $5.00/bu and sell it for feed – does it really make a difference to you as to which market it pushes into? It shouldn’t. Take some time and really think about the future of the barley world. How long will the old crops continue to stick around and still be bought? Why not get ahead of the game. Sell the Metcalfe or Copeland sitting in your bins right now for feed if you have to and update that seed! Really, it’s a “win-win” situation because when was the last time you were able to get $6.25 for Metcalfe or Copeland and do it with a whole lot less risk?

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.


Rayglen Market Comments – January 27, 2021

Canadian wheat markets are strong again this week and continue to hold their momentum as we near the end of January. As of this morning, feed wheat prices are trading around the $7.00/bu FOB farm mark in many areas of Saskatchewan. Bids will vary pending location, but as you move Southwest, the better the price will be. Milling CWRS is ranging from $7.50 to $7.90/bu delivered for a #1 with 13.5% protein with movement further out. Producers with 12.5% protein can achieve a slightly discounted price, ranging from $7.30 to $7.70/bu delivered. In some cases, looking towards the feed market will net you more on the bottom line. New crop #1 US spec durum, for early 2022 movement, has traded at $8.25/bu-$8.50/bu FOB farm in South Central/Southeast Saskatchewan, while spot purchases are around that $8.50/bu mark in Southeast Sask. as well. Markets are showing strength and we are unsure when this gravy train will derail, so making some hedges to mitigate the downside may be a good option.

Yellow varieties remain the only exciting aspect of the pea market, seeming to bump up little by little each time we write. We now have buyers willing to look at product, in the right location, at $10.00/bu FOB for movement in the next couple months. We’ve also had new crop bids pop up at $9.00/bu delivered into a glyphosate free market and $8.00/bu picked up for a regular #2 market, both with an act of God. Green peas remain subdued with old crop values at $8.50 – $9.00/bu picked up and in light trade. Maple peas continue trading around $10.00/bu picked up in specific locations. Global supplies continue to shrink, which is why yellow peas are holding at such competitive values. We are not expecting much of a change in green peas and they will likely continue trading at levels below yellows, as they are being priced into the feed markets.

Flax prices remain strong and possibly stronger priced out into summer months.  At this point, $20.00/bu picked up in the yard will trade for most areas, while new crop is still lingering around $15.00/bu picked up with an act of God. There are some discrepancies in tonnage reports of product that has moved from the Black Sea Region into China. It is possible that these discrepancies are due to delays at the Chinese border from Covid related inspections. However, if the Russian and Kazakh data is correct, then large volumes of flax are moving into China and once the obstructions are clear, their reporting should reflect this as well. Based on data, flax prices shouldn’t be at these record highs and while Canadian prices have edged higher, that momentum has slowed down in other key markets. If there is a response with more acres planted in 2021, then we could see prices coming off their highs sooner than later.

The barley market is a rather interesting one at the moment. The main focus to date is more on the feed side of things than on the malt side. With the availability to get $6.00/bu for feed barley through the months of May – July, this should leave the bins empty come 2021 harvest time. Often, the barley world is a risk vs reward scenario; will it make malt or continue to hold its value in the bin, or should it just be pushed into a feed market and alleviate the risk of trying to maintain it at a malt spec? Given the current demand and pricing on feed, the writing is on the wall. Chances are you can lock up some feed barley around the $5.00/bu for new crop, with really not much news to be spoken of on the malt side of things. Will feed prices go higher? We think it’s safe to say that nobody has that answer to date, but how high does it really need to go to make you a seller in today’s market? We have seen bins being emptied into feed markets in previous years around $4.00/bu FOB, so at the end of the day right now should be a seller’s market for feed. All in all, let’s try to empty those bins now and cross our fingers they’re busting at the seams in a few months with 2021 crop.

Chickpea markets turn to Mexico with earlier than normal seeding reports already out. They are estimating a return to normal levels of acres but there is also talk of dryer than normal weather conditions. Regardless of acres, this is detrimental in the early stages of the crop and is the news to watch for. Looking back and just a reminder, according to StatsCan report on Dec 31/20 there was an estimated 400K MTS of carry for 2021. This is up 21% compared to the previous year. While we are sure this number will move again, it is clear that the supply is ample, and the market is aware of it. Current #2 large Kabuli chickpea values for Mar.-April movement range from $0.25-$0.28/lb FOB farm with freight sensitivity. New crop is still a dull conversation and it is widely believed that the acres will decrease this year, so buyers are not willing to stick their necks out on any kind of significant position. Bids for a #2 quality large Kabuli hover around $0.25/lb FOB farm with an AOG and Sept.-Dec. movement. Finally, last but not least, feed and sample chickpeas are valued at $0.17/lb FOB farm with relatively quick shipment.

Milling oat prices continue to see strength with old crop bids quoted upwards of $4.00/bu picked up on the farm for Spring movement in East Central Sask. As well, new crop pricing continues to remain attractive with pricing above $3.00/bu picked up with movement pushed out. Farm location will have a big say in quoted bids, so reach out to your merchant for price discovery in your area. On the feed side, 40lbs bushel weight continues to capture anywhere from $3.00 – $3.50/bu for quick movement. Over the last couple of days, we’ve started to hear more chatter of producers letting go of oat acres in favour of oilseeds. As well, analysts are reiterating this sentiment as they forecast acres to be reduce upwards of 16%. This will be something to keep an eye on moving forward.

We are seeing a little bit of action in the canaryseed market this week as buyers stick their neck out to grab offers on both old and new crop again. Spot contract bids have clawed their way back to the highs of the year, $0.32/lb FOB farm, for movement in the next couple months. Currently, we see no premium for holding product into Spring/Summer. With that being said, there is no harm in posting a target if these values don’t entice you. We have some buyers looking for new crop as well this week,  $0.27/lb FOB farm with act of God has traded. These types of values, after years of $0.20-$0.25/lb, seem like a fairly good starting point for 10bpa to hedge the downside. Also, if you are looking to switch out your seed for new supply, or try a new variety, call our office and speak with a Merchant about options.

After big declines last week, the canola futures market has rebounded in a huge way. Rains in South America had traders fund selling to lock in profits after a steady climb up, causing futures to nosedive. Once the dust settled, March futures touched the daily upward trading limit on both Monday and Tuesday and are once again having a big day today (Wednesday). At time of writing, March futures are at $714/MT, up from $650/MT at the same time last week. Many local buyers are now using May ($677/MT) and July ($651/MT) futures to price as they are bought up in the near term. We are hearing positive basis numbers from April on in some areas. As these markets become more and more volatile, focusing on local basis levels will become increasingly important to finding the top price in your area.

Lentils are having another good week, with old crop pricing up one to two cents on all varieties. Currently, buyers are looking at contracting $0.29-$0.30/lb delivered on reds, $0.34-$0.35/lb FOB on large greens and up to $0.30/lb FOB farm on small greens. For the most part, buyers are willing to entertain delivery in the next couple months. This week we finally saw multiple buyers coming to the table with their new crop programs. Reds are currently priced at $0.26/lb delivered on a DDC and in some cases $0.25/lb FOB with act of God on firm target. Large greens have had a couple of buyers at $0.30/lb for #2 or better quality, FOB farm with an Act of God. Small greens are sitting at $0.25-$0.26/lb with an act of God.  These prices are decent starting points for booking next year’s crop. These markets may not be reflecting where the true value lies overseas, but more of a battle for seed acres. This year there are lots of strong prices for the Fall, making seeding intentions a little tougher to finalize.  There is a risk that once these acres get filled, the bids could disappear.

Soybean futures are posed for a third straight day of gains after rains in Mato Grosso, Brazil further delayed harvesting activity in the world’s largest soybean producing country. Global supply concerns continue to underpin strength in the market in the short run. Local soybean bids now hover around $14.50-$15.00 bu picked up depending on location. Faba bean export bids remain virtually non-existent due to a return to global trade normal. Production in Australia and parts of Europe are back on track and importers are falling back into previously established buying relationships. Feed faba bids are near $7.00/bu to $7.25/bu FOB farm, location dependent. Dry bean bids continue to slide from early harvest values due to abundant North American supply. We continue to hear reports of new crop seed shortage due to poor germination. New crop dry bean contracts are available at attractive price levels. Contact Rayglen to book your acres.

It has been another good week concerning mustard prices. Strength remains with all types, on both old crop and new. New crop brown mustard is steady at $0.36 /lb, with contracts being offered for September through July of 2022. Again, show us some offers if you want to try and push for higher, because you never know what could happen with an offer. New crop yellow is sitting at $0.42/lb, while Forge or Vulcan Oriental are as high as $0.32/lb for the same time period. Cutlass is now at $0.30/lb for new crop, which is very strong in comparison to the last couple of years. Spot brown mustard remains hot with bids sitting at $0.37 FOB for prompt movement with the potential for higher on firm offer. Yellow has picked up slightly, with spot bids sitting at $0.41 FOB farm with fairly quick movement as well. Forge Oriental is up at $0.32 for March/April, while Cutlass Oriental has seen some trading done at $0.30 cents FOB for that same window. Please call us to discuss all your new crop and seed options. We have all varieties of seed, either treated with 2 treatments, or un-treated and our prices include delivery to your yard.

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.


Rayglen Market Comments – January 20, 2021

The canaryseed market remains strong, but there is little to no change from last week. Spot values are trading around $0.31/lb FOB farm, or $0.32/lb delivered to plant. You may find $0.32/lb FOB farm for Spring movement but remember road bans will most likely come into effect the last half of March which may affect the bid. New crop bids are thin, but growers are still able to catch $0.26/lb FOB farm with an act of God. Getting 10bu/acre locked in at that price may not be a bad place to start if considering the 5-year pricing average.  If you are looking to get into canary or switch out your seed for a new variety, talk with your merchant as we do have seed supplies available. Also keep in mind that if you have a certain price you are looking for, offers are a great way to showcase your grain to all buyers.

Feed and milling wheat markets have been quite strong over the past couple weeks and continue their trend as we write. Feed wheat, with delivery pushed out into Summer months, has been trading over $7.00/bu FOB farm in many areas and up to $7.60/bu FOB farm in Alberta. Producer bids for milling CWRS range from $7.75 to $8.05/bu delivered for a #1, 13.5%, with a few reports of strong premiums on higher protein product. Growers with 12.5% protein can capture bids slightly less, around $7.55 to $7.85/bu delivered, with movement pushed further out. Bits and pieces of #1 US spec new crop durum continue to trade around $8.25/bu FOB farm in South Central & Southeast Saskatchewan. These are very good values on wheat, and we suggest growers make some hedges as we are unsure how long this will last.

The yellow pea market continues to hold its premium to greens as world supplies continue to shrink. We can expect this market to hold strong so long as China maintains their importing pace destined for their feed channels. Yellow peas are trading at $9.75 – $10.00/bu delivered, with the latter seen in the Saskatoon area. We have also had new crop values trade at $8.00/bu FOB with an act of God and although not a widely seen bid, we urge growers to get their targets in. Green peas remain quiet at $9.00/bu FOB, with very little overseas demand. Maple peas have had a few trades pop up here and there at $10.00/bu FOB farm, again with targets being the best option. India’s pea crop is looking favorable right now and they were able to add a few more acres to their total, about 1% higher than the 5-year average, as per reports. Therefore, we can expect India to remain fairly non-existent as an importer in this pea market.

Recent rains in South America have buoyed the prospects of favorable yields and conversely have sewered US soybean futures. Local soybean bids now hover around $14.00/bu picked up depending on location. Faba bean export bids remain virtually non-existent due to a return in normal global trade. Production in Australia and parts of Europe are back on track and importers are falling back into previously established buying relationships. Feed faba bids are near $7.00/bu to $7.25/bu FOB farm, location dependent. Dry bean bids continue to slide from early harvest values due to abundant North American supply. We continue to hear reports of new crop seed shortage due to poor germination. New crop dry bean contracts are available at attractive price levels. Contact Rayglen to book your acres.

Feed barley continues to dominate the local barley marketing discussions. Feed bids are historically high in both spot and deferred shipping positions. Old crop feed ranges from $5.00/bu to $5.50/bu FOB farm location dependent. Deferred feed shipping bids into Summer are approaching $6.00/bu FOB farm. New crop feed bids of $5.00/bu to $5.25/bu picked up have been buying acres. Malt barley bids continue in their previously laggard fashion due to poor demand. Old crop malt bids tend to equal feed bids and new crop bids are not attractive enough relative to feed to get growers to commit.

The milling oat market continues to maintain its pricing strength as bids reach the upper echelon $3’s, butting up to $4/bu depending on movement timeframe and farm location. The great freight locations are typically in South Eastern Sask., as product heads East into Manitoba. New crop milling bids are also available, so give your Rayglen merchant a call to firm up pricing in your location. On the feed side, there is not a ton of love for product under 40lbs but if you are 40lbs plus, look for pricing anywhere in that $3 – $3.50/bu range with fairly quick movement. As a side note, we would like to mention that the CBOT is looking for participants in a market survey regarding the Oat Futures contract. To quote our colleague Greg Kostal, “Disconnect between oat futures and Western Canada cash price grid is obvious. Some like it that way, while others don’t. There is also talk of possibly adding a Winnipeg switching district delivery location. No matter if a user, farmers, shipper, processor, the opportunity to provide feedback on possible amendments is now. Response deadline is Jan. 22.”

One of the strongest markets throughout this winter remains to be the flax market. Current bids are hitting at $20.00/bu picked up, on #1 quality, for those who still have unsold product in the bin. China is still the main buyer in this market but there seems to be product going to the other 2 big players as well, Europe and the US. European purchases are the largest we have seen in Canada for several years as Chinese markets usually take more product from the Black Sea Region. If you still have flax in the bins these prices do seem to be stable for time being, but this market is generally an escalator on the way up and elevator on the way down, so being heavily sold today is a prudent move and is encouraged. If you’re seeding Brown flax, also consider taking some risk off the table at $15/bu picked up on farm with act of God for 2021 crop. Even if the acres don’t increase much in Canada, they are sure to increase in other parts of the world at these values, so hedging the downside is a good play. For Yellow flax, grower spot prices are similar to Brown at $20/bu range, while new crop is showing closer to $17/bu picked up on farm with act of God.

After months of a steady climb, we are seeing drastic declines in canola futures markets over the past two days. While fundamentals appear not to have changed as much, this market is very strong and therefore, very volatile. Weekend rains in South America appear to be the news that has sent futures downward, with Brazil receiving rainfall across major areas of the country. With that being said, we’re still looking at possible small crops from Brazil and even more so, Argentina. At time of writing, March futures are at $650.80/MT which is down from $687/MT at the same time last week. Technical corrections are a part of futures markets and we could see this market come right back up in the coming weeks.

Lentils continue to strengthen again this week, but as prices rise farmers seem to remain reluctant to sell. Large greens seem to be the quietest out of all the lentils on the trade side of things. Bids this week are between $0.35-$0.36/lb delivered depending on location throughout the province. New crop large green lentils range between $0.28-$0.30/lb FOB farm, again location specific. Spot red lentils are trading between $0.28-$0.29 delivered for Feb.-March movement and as of this morning, new crop contracts are being done at $0.25/lb Fob farm with act of God. Small green lentils are still sitting at $0.28-$0.29 FOB farm with new crop indicated at $0.25-$0.26/lb. At these levels, new crop lentil bids pencil out with some decent returns. For example, red lentils come out roughly at a 21% return on investment, while large greens pencil a 19% return on investment.

Chickpea markets are getting a bit of buzz with old crop bids at $0.27/lb FOB farm for Feb.- Mar. movement. This has not generated a lot of business, but it has certainly kept the conversations coming. New crop has not formulated a bid yet but when talking to growers, the ideas hover around $0.30-0.35/lb. Clearly there is a divide on the buy and sell side of the market. If growers do not see values come up, it is likely they will grow acres open and gamble on price improvement. We have also heard growers switching out from Orion seed to Leaders due to disease issues last year. If you are looking for seed, feel free to call us for a market comparison.

Mustard has been fairly busy this week as the price shows strength in most areas. Brown mustard is stealing the show with spot bids sitting at $0.36/lb FOB for prompt movement with potential for higher on firm offer. Yellow has picked up slightly, with spot bids sitting at $0.41/lb FOB farm for fairly quick movement also. Forge Oriental is up at $0.32 for March/April and Cutlass Oriental has seen some trading done at $.30/lb FOB for that same window. New crop brown mustard is steady at $0.36/lb, with contracts being offered for September through July of 2022. Again, show us offers if your sell point differs slightly. New crop yellow is sitting at $0.42/lb and Forge or Vulcan Oriental as high as $0.30/lb for the same time period. Cutlass is now at $0.30 cents for new crop also after a recent jump. Please call us to discuss all your new crop and seed options. We have all varieties of seed, either treated with 2 treatments, or un-treated and our prices include delivery to your yard.

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.


Rayglen Market Comments – January 13, 2021

Saying it has been a good week for canola futures would be a massive understatement. Expectations of tightened stocks being reported by the USDA on their Jan. 12 report led to strength in the futures. Those expectations were realized in a big way as ending stocks were lowered on all US corn, soybeans, and wheat. At time of writing, March futures are sitting at $687/MT. This is up from $652/MT last week with reports of $15.00/bu FOB farm out there for March/April pickup. November futures are currently at $552/MT, leading to some new crop bids over $12 depending on local basis. Keep looking out for your best local basis options and consider locking in some historically high values.

The feed wheat market keeps gaining strength, now with the possibility to capture $7.00/bu FOB farm in many areas for summer delivery. Spring wheat futures were doing well yesterday, but they finished slightly behind the rest of the markets. Producer bids for milling CWRS range between from $7.50 to $7.65/bu delivered based off #1 quality and 13.5% protein. Growers with 12.5% protein wheat are able to capture values slightly lower, from $7.30 to $7.45/bu delivered with further out movement. Pending freight costs, growers may be better off selling into the feed wheat market at this point. We have been seeing bids on old crop high quality durum at $8.75/bu delivered into certain locations and growers still have some decent opportunities available if looking to make sales.

The only positive changes in the pea market, as of late, seem to be on yellow side. Old crop yellow peas have been trading at $9.75/bu delivered and while analyzing the past 10 years, yellow peas have been above $8.75/bu only 15% of the time. Therefore, moving some yellows into this market does not seem like a bad play to hedge the downside risk. China is the whole yellow pea market right now and they remain a strong buyer into their feed channels, however this is a vulnerable market. India has not been a player and with their rabi crop going well so far, they likely will not be. Green peas remain quiet with buyers unexcited to purchase and farmers looking to sell. Current price is $9.00/bu picked up. Maple peas saw a slight increase to $10.00/bu picked up in a few areas, with targets being a key factor in trading. For new crop, yellows are getting buyer interest at $7.50/bu, however, $8.00/bu picked up has traded on firm target. If yellows start trading in all areas at $8.00/bu FOB, we can expect acres to be going up.

The barley world is trending in an interesting fashion as of late. Although there is not much talk on the Malt side of things and markets seem to be fairly bullish, the price of feed does not have many asking why. Old crop feed can easily pencil out $5.00/bu to $6.00/bu picked up, depending on how long you want to sit on it. Rumblings of new crop feed prices are sitting anywhere from the $4.50/bu mark up to $5.25/bu, area dependant. Given the current markets, now would be a great time to start thinking about what variety of barley is best to seed. If your end game is pushing product into a feed market, exploring some of the newer malt varieties out there would be a great option. Varieties like Synergy, Bow and Connect have been proven to get you higher yields than the old days of Metcalfe and Copeland. Seeding any of these gives you a double window for opportunity. On the Malt side of things, if prices take off and your quality is to spec, you can source it out that way and still achieve the Malt value to put towards your bottom line. If feed prices stay strong and/or you don’t make malt spec, the extra yield will also give you higher returns. Contact one of our Rayglen merchants today to discuss seed and pricing options!

Pricing on oats has stayed strong this year with a record number of exports, approximately 1 million tonnes, already recorded as of week 22. We’ve seen a slight increase in US shipments, but also coming out of the woodwork, is a demand from Central and South America with buyers we haven’t seen before. Canada has even “stolen” some export opportunities from Australia into destinations such as Mexico, which may swing back to favor the Aussies with decreased pricing; something to keep an eye on moving forward. As we continue to tick away into the month of January,  pricing remains firm with delivered in bids pushing upwards of $4.30 – $4.60/bu in Manitoba. So, depending on movement timeframe and farm location $4.00/bu picked up is a possibility. Hotspots tend to be along the SE Sask/Manitoba border. That being said, we have seen quotes of $3.60 – $3.70/bu in NE Sask. So, give your Rayglen merchant a call for price specifics at your farm. Feed continues to fluctuate between $3 – $3.50/bu with buyers looking for 40lbs oats. New crop milling oat values are ranging from $3.50 – $3.75/bu delivered in depending on movement timeframe with the latter pushing into 2022. Seeding intentions for the upcoming year remain interesting as there may be too much competition for an increase in oat acres with musings that we may see a dip. Time will tell.

Red lentils gain a little strength this week, while greens remain flat. A few buyers have strengthened their red bids this week by one or two cents and as we write, trades are taking place between $0.27-$0.28/lb picked up on farm in a few areas. Large greens remain in that $0.33-$0.34/lb mark FOB farm, again pending freight costs. Small greens have been in light trade but bid at $0.28-$0.29/lb picked up. New crop programs are starting to become available with reds at $0.22-$0.23 FOB farm with AOG on #2 or better quality. Large green lentils are bid at $0.27 cents FOB farm with AOG basis #2 quality and small greens at $0.24-$0.25 for #1 quality. Lentils once again show a decent return on investment based on our yearly crop planner.  They pencil out at 18%-21% return on investment, putting them in the top 10 crops to grow this year based on this week’s new crop pricing.

Canaryseed markets seem to have come back to life this week with buyers starting to poke around for new crop acres. Right now, we are seeing bids at $0.26-$0.27/lb FOB farm available in most areas with an act of God.  That may be a good place to start to hedge 10bu/acre considering our previous 5 years of lower pricing. Old crop hasn’t seen as much interest this week as new with bids down slightly. Bids at $0.32/lb are no longer available for quicker movement and it looks like $0.31/lb FOB farm is the new normal. If you can wait and road bans don’t affect you, $0.32/lb may work for Spring movement on firm offer. With the market fluctuating on new and old crop, offers are the way to get buyers attention right now.

While it is still very early, chickpea acres are forecast to decrease for the upcoming crop cycle in Canada by about 8%. The US revised reports showed production for the 2020/21 crop year down by as much as 31%. This could translate to better value for bushels in the bin, but through conversation with growers, there is still plenty of product to go through before any sizeable movement happens in the market.  New crop values range from $0.23-$0.24/lb FOB farm for #2 or better large Kabulis with an AOG and discounts down to smaller sizes. Current crop values remain the same, ranging from $0.24-$0.25/lb FOB farm in most cases, with the odd $0.28-$0.29/lb popping up.  Renewed interest for old crop Desis has popped up, so if there are any in the bin, please give your broker a call!

Flax prices once again remain strong this week with prices ranging anywhere from $19.00-$20.00/bu picked up in the yard.  New crop is steady at $15.00/bu also picked up with an Act of God.  Yellow flax is about par. Demand from China has been growing but they are also diversifying their flax sourcing. We could see some additional acres put in this year with these prices, not just in Canada but in other markets such as the Black Sea Region. The biggest question is whether there is more upswing in this market or if demand will be rationed. Prices in Russia and Kazakhstan have been sideways over the last while since buyers are not willing to overly chase the market. It is no surprise that supplies will be tight going into the next crop year, so if you have not priced out any flax as of yet, now is the time to start locking some in.

Soybean prices spiked higher yesterday as the USDA WASDE report tightened supply estimates. Local soybean bids now hover around $14.50/bu -$15.00/bu picked up depending on location. The Faba bean story remains similar to previous reports, whereby export bids are slim due to a return to normal in global export competition. The faba export market is a long shot this year, but if an opportunity were to develop it needs to occur no later than mid to late Feb. Feed faba bids are near $7.00/bu FOB farm location dependent. Dry beans have seen strong bids this fall but will be under pressure from a rebound in supply from the fall harvest. There are widespread reports of an unexpected new crop seed shortage due to poor germination. New crop dry bean contracts are available at attractive price levels. Contact Rayglen to book your acres.

Mustard has been fairly busy this week with the uptrend continuing on brown. Historically very strong, spot brown mustard now sits at $0.35/lb FOB farm for January to March pickup with potential for higher on firm offer. Yellow and Oriental continue flat, with spot yellow sitting at $0.40/lb FOB farm for February to March movement.  Forge Oriental is at $0.32 for Feb./Mar. and Cutlass Oriental remaining the outlier, but now steady at $0.28 FOB for that same window. New crop brown mustard is steady at $0.35/lb, with contracts being offered for September through July of 2022. New crop yellow is sitting at $0.42/lb and Oriental as high as $0.30/lb for the same time period. Please call us to discuss all your new crop and seed options. We have all varieties of seed, either treated with 2 treatments, or un-treated and our prices include delivery to your yard.

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.

 


Rayglen Market Comments – January 6, 2021

It has been a couple weeks since our last report, and since then, it has been all good news for canola growers across the Prairies. Canola futures continue to follow soybeans upwards and are pushing to levels we have only seen once in the past ten years. The US dollar losing some strength, as well as concerns surrounding dryness in large areas across South America are a big part of the bullish pricing we are seeing. March futures sit at $652/MT at time of writing, with May futures at $643/MT. These are increased from last week when we saw $636/MT for March and $625/MT for May. Not only are futures rising, but basis levels appear to be narrowing with reports of positive basis levels in some areas. Keep an eye out for the best basis levels in your area to maximize your price when looking to sell.

As we kick off a new year, pea markets and producer bids remain relatively unchanged. Yellow peas are strong at $9.25/bu delivered to several locations throughout the Prairies, with $9.00/bu FOB workable in a few areas too. Green peas are still soft at $9.00/bu FOB, while Maple peas see a slight increase to $10.00/bu FOB; tonnage seems to be limited at this value. New Crop bids are slowly starting to become available, but mainly just for yellow peas. We have seen programs pop up at $7.00 – 7.50/bu FOB farm with an act of God, again with limited tonnage available. Growers have been targeting at $8.00/bu FOB on new crop yellows, but this has yet to see any buyer interest. China remains the top importer of our yellow peas, which will continue to hold that market strong. India’s pea plantings are still ahead of pace, so if they get favorable weather over the next couple of months, we cannot expect them to come into the importing market.

Flax prices are still aggressive as we start the new year but vary depending on movement timeline. We see bids range from $18.00/bu – $19.00/bu FOB today, with the former poised for Jan.-Mar. shipment and the latter pushing delivery into the summer months. New crop prices also remain strong with average bids in the $14.50/bu range for Sept.-Dec. delivery. Some analysts are projecting exports for the 2021/22 crop year to be similar to the previous, with the biggest factor being demand for Canadian flax and its effect on prices going forward.  This will be influenced by production overseas where strong prices have also encouraged more seeded acres for the upcoming crop year. Ending stocks for the year will be tight as we have seen the last few years.  If you are putting some flax in the ground, keep in mind price direction will be influenced by competitors. Locking in the first 10 bushels is not a bad idea at these levels.

The feed wheat markets remain strong as we start 2021 and product continues to trade around $6.50/bu in Central Saskatchewan for April-June movement with standard specs; 58lbs and max 14.5% moisture. Milling CWRS values have been trading between $7.25-$7.60/bu delivered based off #1 quality and 13.5% protein. Our office has also seen new crop #1 durum trade at $8.25 FOB in South East Saskatchewan for Sept./Nov. movement. Those bids seem to have quieted down for now, but we still encourage growers to put in their targets at these levels. Old crop high quality durum has been trading between $8.00 to $8.50/bu FOB depending on location for August pick up. Again, this business is slow, but opportunities do exist. Movement is largely pushed into summer as you can see, but some of these values are too strong to ignore.   

Soybean futures are soaring based on dry weather and pod filling concerns in South America; along with China continuing to drain U.S. soybean supplies. Local soybean bids now hover around $14.50/bu picked up depending on location. The Faba bean story remains similar to previous reports, whereby export bids are slim due to a return to normal in global export competition. Feed faba bids are near $7.00/bu FOB farm, location dependent. Dry beans have seen strong bids this fall but will be under pressure from a rebound in supply from this next harvest. There are widespread reports of an unexpected new crop seed shortage due to poor germination. New crop dry bean contracts are available at attractive price levels. Contact Rayglen to book your acres.

Canaryseed markets remain flat but strong with bids unchanged from the weeks leading up to the holiday season. There are still buyers looking for product, although not quite as aggressively as they once were, and it seems as though supply and demand have reached an equilibrium. Values hold at $0.32/lb FOB farm for quick movement with buyers showing a “take it or leave it approach” and unwilling to pay more. Even deferring delivery into the summer months doesn’t get much attention, so if you are looking at getting some on books, now may be the time. We are still waiting on the majority to post new crop bids but do have one buyer indicating $0.24/lb FOB farm, with Act of God. If you have a price in mind but the market is not there today, offers are a great way to show your product and get  buyers’ attention.

Barley markets are still attempting to find themselves given the push from Chinese exports. Not much on the forefront of new crop pricing for Malt barley, but if you are looking to lock some up, you could pencil in $5.00 – $5.50/bu, area dependent. Feed barley is still holding on strong with some new crop production pricing in the range of $4.50 – $5.00/bu. Growers with barley sitting on the farm right now should be safe to pencil in $5.00/bu for feed or higher pending location. Maltsters are still slow on the spot side of things, but once they start to clean up some of their production contracts you can expect some pricing to come out. Keep in mind that sitting on malt barley because you expect there to be a premium to feed, may not bode well and might not always be the case. Although you are dealing with the same product, you are comparing apples to oranges when it comes to the price of feed affecting the price of Malt. They are two completely separate selling windows. Maltsters can only offer what they are getting end of dollar, so keeping up with the current feed price may put a challenge onto their plates. Feed prices are strong so don’t hesitate to sign up at these values. The magic 8 ball doesn’t have the availability to determine how long these prices will hold on for.

Lentil markets remain quiet as we start out the new year. India has decided to increase tariffs once again, back to 33% while the American tariff remains 55%. Aside from the tariffs, Australia has ample supply to fill India’s needs for the near term and we must remember India is ahead of last year’s seeding rates. This will keep lentils prices from any big gains over the next few months.  Major concerns in the lentil market today are: Will India get a good quality crop off? Who else comes into the marketplace besides India? Finally, what will Canadian seeded acreages be next year? All factors to consider when planning sales now or in the future. Bids this week for reds is ranging between $0.24-$0.26/lb FOB farm based on location. Large green lentils are still trading in the $0.33-$0.34/lb FOB farm range, while small greens trade in the $0.27-$0.29/lb FOB farm range.  Some new crop pricing is out as well this week and bids are indicated at $0.27/lb for #2 or better for quality large greens, $0.22/lb for a #2 or better red lentil and $0.25/lb for a #2 or better small green, all prices are quoted as FOB farm.

Despite chickpea markets being dull compared to previously active and high valued years, they are still considered to be a lucrative crop to seed. Discussion from the buyer’s side regarding putting a dollar value on a new crop chickpea is relatively quiet given the amount of stock on farm still available and buyers uncertainty in the StatsCan numbers. Old crop values range from $0.24/lb FOB farm to $0.27/lb delivered plant for first quarter of 2021. Feed chickpeas are still in high demand with buyers and bids ranging from mid to high teens depending on downgrading factors. If you are planting chickpeas for the coming year and want to switch up your seed, give us a call for options.

As we get back to work after the holidays, we are seeing generally the same mustard prices. Strength in brown mustard continues both in new crop and old. Spot brown mustard now sits at $0.35/lb FOB farm for January to July pickup. Call your merchant for movement options on this. Yellow is sitting at $0.40/lb FOB farm for February to March movement, while Oriental Forge variety sits at $0.29 for Feb./Mar. as well. Cutlass Oriental remains the outlier but is now steady at $0.27 FOB for that same window. New crop brown mustard is still steady at $0.35/lb, with contracts being offered for September through July of 2022. New crop yellow is sitting at $0.42/lb and oriental as high as $0.30/lb for the same time period. Please call us to discuss all your new crop and seed options. We have all varieties of seed, either treated with 2 treatments, or un-treated and our prices include delivery to your yard.

We are still seeing pretty strong prices on milling oats this week. Bids picked up in the yard over the next few months are near $4/bu in great freight areas of Sask (Southeast) and numbers hit mid $3’s for the long hauls (Northwest). If you’re sitting on oats it’s probably a decent idea to get them locked up and moved out before shipping windows start to look uglier with road bans coming into effect in the next 2 and a half months. Values on feed oats are still strong with low to high $3’s for product that weighs up but is off on color or other grading factors. New crop bids (pushed into early 2022) are showing North of $3/bu in a few areas as a FOB farm value,  which is nothing to sneeze at for locking in an oat value most years, and a good start for sure.

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.


Rayglen Market Comments – December 22, 2020

The pea market remains unchanged from last week. Buyers are still showing most of their interest in yellow peas, while green peas have had little attention. The price gap between the two remains virtually closed as yellows are bid at $9.25 – 9.40/bu delivered (the latter seen in North Central Sask) and green peas are bid at $9.00 – 9.50/bu delivered. Maple peas have softened a bit as well with $10.00/bu picked up harder to find and most buyers now posting $10.00/bu delivered. New crop values are still slow to come to the market with most of the grower attention focused on yellow peas. Recent reports suggest China has slowed their importing pace of yellow peas; however, China is likely to deplete our pea stocks, which will support prices. This, again, leaves us with all our eggs in one basket while relying on trade relations and demand staying strong out of China.

Feed barley future markets seem to be quiet due to the uncertainty of China’s continued purchasing interest. If China remains the key player in this game, then expect feed prices to stay strong into new crop. Today, a $5.00/bu production bid does not seem like a bad play, but lots are left scratching their heads and wondering if this price is going to go up. Well, if China keeps buying than yes, it more than likely will rise. However, if China turns their tap off, then these attractive on farm values are likely to dry up domestically. Locking up 25% of your farms production today may not be a bad idea and rolling the dice on the remaining 75% gives you the risk vs. reward challenge. On the malt side of things, we patiently wait to see which malting company is going to bite the bullet first, with the rest likely to follow soon afterwards. Initial thoughts would be a $5.25 – $5.50/bu new crop value, however maltsters may want to try and spread the gap between feed with bids closer to $6.00/bu. Due to other circumstances such as carryover of 2019 and a strong 2020 crop, they may not have the buying power to go any higher. A true supply versus demand scenario.

The flax market continues to see historically high values, for the time being, with spot prices on brown sitting at $18.00-$18.25/bu FOB farm and shipped by March. We have seen some better values being bid for further out (Jun./Jul.), and we encourage you to call our office for pricing opportunities. New crop prices on brown flax start at $14.00/bu picked up with many areas seeing slightly stronger bids due to freight advantages. The market is being supported with demand overseas into China and the EU. Yellow flax prices are showing a small premium over brown flax, but overall demand is much slower. Exporters are still trying to move flax out of Kazakhstan through various border points, while there are also reports that China has cut their railcar acceptance by almost half for the month of December. These are all factors to consider for those with product on the farm. If you are looking for seed for the 2021 crop year, call our office as we have some sources still available.  

The milling oats market remains firm and continues to see strong pricing ranging anywhere in that $4.15 – $4.35/bu delivered in for Jan.-Mar. movement. Look for that to pencil out in the mid to high $3’s in most locations across Eastern Sask. If you are looking ahead to next year and wanting to lock in some new crop tonnage, give us a call and we will see what we have for bids specific to your location. On the feed side, we continue to have interest from our buyers in that $3.00 – $3.75/bu range picked up on the farm. Buyers are looking for a dry, min. 40lb oat and have expressed the possibility of some pretty quick movement.

Feed wheat values remain strong this week with trading being done at $6.00 to $6.50/bu FOB the farm, pending location and freight costs. Delivery on feed wheat probably won’t happen until the new year, with many buyers already filling their Jan./Feb. positions. Those on the fence about moving some product into this market should consider not only securing their target value, but also their target movement window. Milling wheat values are relatively unchanged with $6.50 to $7.00/bu delivered as the going rate in most cases. Bids are based off #1 quality and 13.5% protein. High quality Durum markets remain stable with spot bids at $8.00-$8.80/bu FOB farm pending location, for August pick up. A bit of new crop has traded over the past week at $8.00-$8.25/bu FOB farm pending location for Sept./Oct. pick up.

USDA reports continue to support strong soybean demand characteristics. Chinese demand shows no signs of tapering off and is likely to set import records. The strong recent run up has some analysts warning of a potential profit taking reverse; followed by further volatility. Local soybean bids now hover around $12.50-$12.75/bu picked up depending on location. A successful faba harvest in Australia has pushed Canadian product to the export sidelines and thus currently has most domestic product destined for feed markets. Feed faba bids are near $7.00/bu FOB farm, location dependent. Dry beans are finding recent support due to Mexico’s demand. That said, North American production levels are up sharply year over year and will thus have some dampening effect on bids. New crop dry bean contracts are available at attractive price levels. Contact Rayglen to book your acres.

The Canola market continues the aggressive push from last week as the Jan. futures drive past $638.70/mt this morning. Canola seems to be riding the coattails of soybeans as China keeps buying and a strike in Argentina strands cargo ships down South. Futures climbing and basis levels tightening has made the canola prices for late winter and early spring look pretty appealing.  This is ideal for those with iron resolve that have not already sold out by this point. Delivered in prices for January top $13.50/bu in some areas and are pushing to almost $14.00/bu for the April timeline. It’s been a few years since we have seen the canola futures this high; dating back to 2013. Let’s hope this run up is similar to the sustained 2010 to 2013 high prices rather than the blip of 2008 where it fell as fast as it rose.

The week leading up to Christmas continued to show strong pricing, especially when it comes to brown mustard. There seems to be some concerns in the market concerning the number of acres being seeded this Spring, pushing brown up recently. Spot Brown mustard now sits at $0.34/lb FOB for January to February pickup.  Yellow is sitting at $0.40/lb FOB farm for February to March movement. Oriental Forge variety sits at $0.29 for Feb./March, while Cutlass Oriental is now steady at $0.27 FOB for that same window. Surprisingly, new crop brown has popped up to $0.35/lb, with contracts being offered for September through July of 2022. New crop yellow is sitting at $0.42/lb and oriental as high as $0.30/lb for the same time period. Please call us to discuss all your new crop and seed options. We have all varieties of seed, either treated with 2 treatments, or un-treated and our prices include delivery to your yard.

No surprises in chickpea market this week. Much like all other commodities there is a bit of a flat line as we head into the final weeks of 2020. Old crop bids for #2 Large Kabuli are at $0.26/lb FOB farm Jan.-Feb. and sample/feed grade are around $0.16/lb FOB farm. No discussion around new crop other than potential acreage numbers next season as well as what the global supply chain looks like and how it might affect the value. As those uncertainties remain, buyers hesitate to put out bids and own acres just yet. If you are looking to switch up seed and need suggestions, please give a call.

Canary markets have remained quiet but firm over the past few weeks. We’re still seeing bids for a January-March timeframe in the $0.32/lb FOB farm range, with options for quicker movement with slightly lower pricing. We have yet to see any bids come out for production contracts, but we should see those starting in the near future. According to the CGC’s handling statistics, at the start of December we passed last years farm deliveries of canary, which should keep bids strong into the new year. As always, if you have a firm target price in mind on old or new crop, give us a call and we can get it posted up on our website for our buyers to take a look at.

As we approach the Christmas holidays, we see another quiet week in the lentil market. Since last Wednesday we have seen a total of 4 Lentil trades take place affirming our assumption of slow buyer demand. Buyers are also waiting to see what India does with the lentil tariffs at the end of the month which is likely contributing to the slower buying pace. On the other hand, sellers are also hoping that the new year will bring a little upside to values and are hesitant to make any more sales until January at the earliest. Bids remain the same as last week with red lentils trading between $0.24-$0.25/lb FOB farm, large greens at $0.32-$0.33/lb FOB farm and small greens $0.27-$0.28 in most cases.

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.

 

 


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