Barley prices have experienced further declines in recent weeks, but posted bids continue to present favourable opportunities for selling. Quoted values range from $5.50 to $5.70 per bushel FOB farm, varying depending on the location and delivery timeframe. Despite the fluctuations, these figures generally remain profitable for farm operations. The shipping window is primarily extending into January and February, with occasional opportunities for quicker movement emerging. On the malt side, the barley market is relatively subdued, with maltsters seemingly satisfied with their secured tonnage. However, sharing the grades and specifications of stored barley could provide insights into potential pricing opportunities. New crop figures are currently on the back burner, but expectations suggest we may start hearing more concrete numbers in the coming year. Firm offers, whether for feed or malt, could stimulate interest and engage potential buyers.
Oat markets maintain pricing stability this week with bids still being posted at noteworthy levels. Old crop 2CW oats continue to command prices in the $5.00 to $5.50 per bushel delivered plant range, while new crop values sit at similar levels pending shipping window. Anticipating a price spike to $6.00 seems unlikely at this stage, given the current on-farm supply and speculation about 2024 crops. Notably, oat values mirror those of barley, indicating a currently strong market. As oats have the potential to be a high yielding crop, potential market saturation is possible, and this market hinges heavily on supply vs demand. Making occasional small sales on both old and new crop to free up bin space and generate cash flow is advised. Trying to hit the homerun isn’t always successful. Incremental sales are like base hits, and we all know that’s how ball games are won most of the time.
Wheat markets exhibited a modest recovery in prices over the past day or two, with March wheat futures on all three exchanges showing gains between 15 and 30 cents. While these gains merely recouped losses from Monday, they signal a positive development and suggest the market may have found a solid floor. Prices for #1 CWRS inched up to a range of $8.75-$8.85 per bushel delivered in certain areas, while soft white and red winter wheat prices carried a premium, with values delivered at $9.25 per bushel or slightly higher for spring deliveries. Strong fall exports have contributed to tightening supply numbers, fostering a more bullish outlook. Feed wheat prices currently range from $8 to possibly $8.50 per bushel FOB farm, and in some regions, opting for a picked-up feed price may be more advantageous than a delivered #1 option.
The canary market remains relatively subdued with minimal changes in recent weeks. Buyer bids persist between $0.40-$0.42 per pound picked up on the farm, with the latter applying to pushed-out movement. StatsCan estimates a 22% decrease in production for the year, contributing to a somewhat constrained supply. The upcoming week is anticipated to provide a clearer picture, as StatsCan’s final production report is set to be released. New crop canary pricing with an act of God clause continues to hold steady around 35 cents per pound. Based on average production this crop appears to be economically viable for the upcoming year, offering stability that may be challenging for other crops to match.
Nearby canola futures have exhibited mostly sideways trading within a +/- $10 per metric ton range, fluctuating between $700 and $720 per metric ton since mid-November. Export volumes have lagged, prompting analysts to revise their forecasts for ending stocks in the current crop year. On the domestic front, robust crush margins have encouraged crushers to solicit deliveries, offering modest market premiums over export canola. The broader global vegetable oil complex is currently attentive to two key factors. Firstly, the unavoidable discussion centers on dry conditions in Brazil, with early forecasts projecting a year-over-year reduction of 10 million metric tons in soybean production. Secondly, looking further ahead, the potential impact of El Niño on palm oil production in Indonesia and Malaysia is being monitored. The upcoming StatsCan report on December 4th will provide an updated canola production number. The range of pre-report production estimates collected by Reuters spans from 17.2 to 19.7 million metric tons. Current bids range from $15.00 to $15.25 per bushel FOB farm, depending on location.
In the United States, domestic demand for soybeans remains hardy, while hot and dry weather in Brazil has impeded planting progress. Brazilian crop analysts have revised production estimates downward by 10 million metric tons due to widespread drought, particularly in the key production state of Mato Grosso. Bids for soybeans are in the range of $15.50 to $16.00 per bushel FOB farm, location dependent. Dry bean bids are expected to receive late-season support from Mexican demand due to lower production. Feed quality fabas continue to benefit from strong pet food values, with export-quality #2 faba bids ranging from $11.50 to $12.00 per bushel FOB farm, and feed quality values hovering around $9.00 to $10.00 per bushel FOB farm, depending on location.
Flax continues to experience subdued demand for short-term movement, with current bids ranging from $15.00 to $16.00 per bushel FOB farm for December/January shipping. Growers open to extending delivery into 2024 may receive a premium on current bids. Yellow flax remains quiet with limited demand, but we recommend utilizing our offer system if you have a specific sell price in mind. Globally, Russian flax prices have seen a slight increase, while Kazakhstan’s prices are slightly down. Reports suggest that the flat price indicates minimal Chinese concern about Black Sea flax supplies, with China comfortable in their current inventories. Despite China’s slower demand, they ranked as the second-highest importer of Canadian flax at 2300MT, with the US leading at 6800MT.
Chickpea markets mirror last week’s trends, with ongoing buyer interest. Many buyers are cautious, awaiting grading and sizing information before firming up bids. Posted bids currently range between $0.54 and $0.55 per pound FOB farm, with potential for a slight increase if sizing aligns with buyer requirements. There is renewed buyer interest in desi chickpeas, so consulting your merchant for a firm bid in your area is advisable. While new crop bids are limited, growers are starting to offer their initial 10 bushels of production. If you have a price target for next year’s crop, discuss posting an offer with your merchant. For those considering chickpeas in the 2024 rotation, certified seed is in high demand, and securing seed early is advisable. If assistance is needed in sourcing seed for 2024, let us know! Overseas, India, and Mexico are experiencing high kabuli prices, likely leading to increased acreage as their planting seasons progress. However, challenging, dry weather conditions may contribute to firm prices amid uncertain growing conditions.
Spot mustard prices have shown little change this week, with an overall sense of weakness prevailing. Certain buyers have specific requirements for type, and market activity may remain subdued until year-end. Spot prices exhibit day-to-day fluctuations, with current crop bids hovering around 78 to 80 cents per pound for #1 yellow, in the low 60s for brown, while oriental varieties face the biggest challenge dipping to the mid-high 50s. New crop mustard has seen increased activity this week, with yellow quoted at 70 cents per pound for #1, brown at 60 cents, and oriental at 55 cents. Securing brown mustard production contracts in particular may be difficult, though using a firm target is encouraged. Quoted values include a full crop year shipping period and an act of God clause on 10bpa. Seed sales are on the rise, with all types and varieties available. Free delivery to the farm is included with all mustard seed purchases. Inquiries about pricing and seed supplies can be directed to our team, and information on treatment options is available upon request.
The yellow pea market started strong last week but has since retreated. Trades reached as high as $12.00/bu delivered for December movement but have now eased to $11.50 delivered. Pulse companies appear to be the primary buyers, as elevator bids are lower. Green peas are trading at $17.00 FOB Farm for December through February movement, while maple peas have quieted on the trade side, but still maintaining price stability due to limited remaining quantities in the bin. New crop maples have traded as high as $18.50 with an Act of God for September to December movement on firm target. With no concrete prices on new crop yellows or greens yet, we estimate yellows at $9.00/bushel, ranking it as the least favourable returning crop for the upcoming season. Green peas are estimated at $12.00/bushel, placing them at a -3% return, and maple peas, despite being the best returning pea, may face oversupply risks due to their smaller market size, although seed availability is likely to limit acreage.
The green lentil market continues to lead in pricing this week. Large green lentils remain strong at 72 cents FOB farm for old crop, while small and medium green lentils trade at 65 cents per pound CAD and 47-48 cents per pound USD, respectively. These prices are near record highs and should be considered! New crop prices for large green lentils are trading at 50 cents CAD, small greens at 45 cents CAD, and medium greens at 50 cents CAD or 35 cents USD. Limited seed supply is reported for both large and small green lentils, we urge growers to get in touch with their merchant to book their seed sooner than later. Red lentils remain stable at 36-37 cents per pound FOB farm for Jan-Feb movement, with limited interest in new crop from buyers or sellers, although some indications suggest 30 cents FOB with act of God may trade. At these new crop prices, small green lentils present the best return on investment, with large green and medium lentils ranking number 3 and red lentils coming in number 7. Considering these returns, allocating a few acres to secure cash flow and bin space for fall shipment may be worth considering. This is especially true if acres increase and normal yields are achieved, potentially marking the highs of the year.
Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.