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Rayglen Market Comments – April 1, 2020

Flax prices have no major changes this week.  Milling quality hovers around $14.00/bu FOB into summer months, while #1 prices vary between $12.25-$13.00/bu picked up. Yellow flax bids are quieter with the odd $16.00/bu FOB for further out movement. Shrinking supplies of Canadian flax are giving Canadian prices some support, however there is continued heavy competition from Russia and Kazakhstan. The old-crop carryover will make up mostly of lower quality flax, most of which hasn’t been harvested yet. New crop flax bids are hit and miss but still some opportunities available. The USDA is forecasting a drop in acres from last year.  Seasonal gains on flax prices are still possible in the short-term according to analysts, but the long-term outlook will likely remain steady.

The pulse market had quite a bit of activity over the past week, with peas only seeing a small part of the action. Yellow peas edged a bit higher in price, which has promoted movement into the market again. We have been trading $7.50/bu delivered on yellow peas, therefore, $7/bu FOB and in some cases slightly better has been workable. Green peas are holding same as last week at $10.50/bu FOB. Big question we are going to see, “when is movement needed?” Seeding is just around the corner and we are going to have growers wanting to see trucks before the busy season starts. Forecasting new crop acres has begun and we are expecting a 2% increase, as per reports, with this increase mainly shifting into green peas. Current new crop bids are $6.50/bu delivered on yellow and $9/bu delivered on green peas. The oversupplied maple pea market is still quiet, with old crop trading at $8 – 8.50/bu delivered. New crop bids have been seldom.

There is a lot of panic these days due to Covid-19 and stock markets have been reflecting that. Luckily our commodity markets have held up relatively well. We remember that people and animals must eat and that is likely part of the reason why the wheat markets remain stable. With that being said, feed wheat prices have been bid around $5.00/bu FOB across the province this week, with some higher values seen in good freight locations. Delivery is pushed out to summer months in some cases, but you can usually find a better value for holding on. Road bans will be coming on shortly if they have not already, so please be aware of how much you can ship out on a truck. The durum price has been fairly strong over the past little while as well, with bids around $8.00 /bu FOB on a milling quality. Please call your Rayglen merchant for the most up to date prices in your area.

It has been a big news week in the Canadian canola markets. Reports came out that made it sound like China was completely opening its markets back up to Canadian canola, when in fact this is not the case. It was actually a statement that canola trade between the two countries will continue as it has been for the past few months, meaning limited access. They will continue to require canola shipments contain less than 1% foreign material, compared to the previous benchmark of 2.5%. At time of writing, May futures are sitting at $465/MT, down slightly from the same time last week when they were at $467/MT.

Chickpea markets unchanged this week. It is expected that the acres will be down in the coming seeding season but will still be considered up on average. USDA and Mexico are both reporting average 33% reduction in acres, which could help the market. Old crop large chickpeas #2 or better max 10% 7mm trading around $0.25-$0.26/lb delivered facility. New crop unchanged with bids ranging from $0.21-$0.23/lb delivered with an AOG. Feed/sample chickpeas hover at $0.10/lb delivered plant. Desi chickpeas are still a moot with no front runner taking a position of value of new crop acres.

Oat markets remain quiet as the buy side shows very little demand for a low-quality feed oat (light, dusty, tough) and focuses on heavy feed oats @ $2.50-$3/bu FOB farm freight sensitive. Despite rumors that line companies are still moving first half 2020 contracts, current buying interest is April-June shipping period with balanced movement throughout. New crop values have died off from previous weeks given the current global situation with the expectation of acres staying relatively the same or a slight increase from last year.

It has been a wild week on world markets and some commodities have jumped considerably very recently. Unfortunately, mustard remains in a tight trading range and we are not expecting much of a change short term. New crop mustard and seed has been booking steadily. Old crop sales have been happening, but fairly slow. Yellow mustard remains at 38 cents for spot and new crop. Brown mustard is stuck at 27 cents FOB for spot and as high as 29 cents for new crop. Oriental spot sits at 25 cents for Forge and 24 to 25 cents for Cutlass. New crop is as high as 28 FOB for Forge or Vulcan and 25 to 26 cents now for Cutlass. We encourage growers to set targets to show buyers you are a serious seller. We still have open acres for an IP Brown mustard program at a premium to commercial markets. We have certified seed available of all types and can still make deliveries happen. If you have not ordered your seed, please call us as soon as possible to possibly find room on delivery to your yard.

The barley market is still holding up this week as a weak loonie keeps US corn into Alberta at a minimum. Feed movement is mostly pushed out into late spring and early summer as road bans, seeding and previous purchase commitments keep things from moving off the farm promptly. Expectations of a wave of spring thrashed grain coming to market has a few nervous about prices getting beat up, but this will all depend how these crops weathered the winter, which we should find out shortly. Current feed bids range from $3.75 to $4.25 picked up on the farm in Sask with the stronger values further west/south and weaker prices further north/east. There might still be an option for malt prices on old and new depending on variety, if you have interest to get something sold, talk to your merchant on details and see what we can get lined up.

Soybean futures prices dropped overnight as Brazilian exports finished on pace for a record-setting March and Chinese demand limps along as supply chain backlogs are cleared. Soybean cash bids in the range of $10.00/bu picked up on farm, location dependent. Faba export demand on hold and feed bids still hanging on near $6 picked up. New crop dry bean production contracts are getting close to sold out…still a few acres available. Call your Rayglen merchant for more info.

You can hear a pin drop. That’s what it’s been like in the Canary market, has not made any noise the last number of weeks. Old crop pricing still seems to be hovering in that 26-27c/lb range with April to June movement. With new crop equally silenced and holding steady in the low 20s for pricing. Moving forward there is limited export for the rest of this crop year due to tight supplies. The demand is still there but that window is shrinking waiting for Europe to show up in the buying market.

Lentils continue to strengthen as there seems to be concerns with the world food supply. What is causing this run in prices?  Problems with India’s crop, worry about Turkey’s crop, and Covid 19. North American has a decent supply of lentils and we know the quality therefore buyers are more comfortable purchasing our gain instead waiting to see the outcome of India and Turkey’s crops.  This is the most excitement we have seen in lentils in a long time, with an increase in reds of 6 cents in the last 10 days and 2-3 cents gains in green lentils. New crop prices are starting to appear with reds trading at 21-22 cents FOB farm with an Act of God, and large greens trading at 24 for a #1 and 23 for a #2. Old crop still seems to be the buyers main focus compared to next year’s production.

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.

 


Rayglen Market Comments – March 25, 2020

Chickpea markets seem to have a bit of steam this week. A slight uptick in value by a penny or two depending on the area, as well as more buyers seem to be showing interest. The buying focus appears to be for niche markets as opposed to mass export so the product being bought is small in quantity, specific for sizing and incremental as the trade actually happens. This could still spell opportunity though so dig up those old grade and sizing sheets and get quality pics with a ruler in the photo from near and far. This could mean the difference in a quick trade or a missed opportunity. Old crop large chickpeas #2 or better max 10% 7mm trading around $0.24-$0.26/lb delivered facility. New crop has had little to no movement from last week with bids ranging from $0.21-$0.23/lb delivered with an AOG. Feed/sample chickpeas hover at $0.10/lb delivered plant.

There are many factors affecting the market, however, the one that may entice more demand in peas is the Canadian dollar dropping. We had bids move slightly higher on yellow peas and targets at $7.50/bu delivered getting interest. Green peas haven’t seen much of a change yet with pricing at $10.50/bu FOB. There has also been word that India may start “hoarding” pulses, but as of now we haven’t seen much of a rally in pricing. New crop bids haven’t changed since last week, $8.75/bu delivered on greens and $6.50/bu delivered on yellows. If you still have some peas in the bin, especially yellows, trying out a target is a good option as hopefully we will see bids continue to firm slightly up. Maple pea markets remain quiet with China being the main buyer and the market currently still over stocked. Old crop pricing is at $8 – 8.50/bu FOB.

Canary pricing has pulled back a tad this week sitting around 26-27c/lb picked up on the farm with movement ranging from April to June. It isn’t uncommon to see this commodities old crop pricing stutter, as the expectation is for it to turn around again in another month to six weeks time for the next round of buying. An important factor to consider though is shipment and how will this be affected when that buying time comes. Does it shorten that buying window which inversely affects product pricing uptick? If only I could predict the future. On new crop canary, prices continue to hover around 21c/lb. Chances are we will continue to see the low 20s pricing moving forward unless there is any concern with the 2020 crop.

As most countries self-isolate, we may see panic buying of food around the world, which could start value inflation in our markets and dollar deflation. Whatever happens, we are glad to see feed markets push through as wheat bids increase slightly this week with most areas able to catch $5.00/bu FOB the farm. Better freight areas are seeing bids in the $5.25/bu range (usually closer you get to feed lot alley, but not always the case).  For CWRS milling wheat in Saskatchewan with a minimum of 12.5% protein trading is being done around $6.50/bu delivered. With the Canadian dollar a bit lower right now, it has helped with keeping corn in the states. In the southeast part of the province, you should be able to get over $8.00/bu FOB on milling durum.

The oats market is still pretty quiet out there on old and new crop. Most buyers are pretty well bought up for the spot market, so bids are tougher to track down, but there is still the occasional opportunity into the Manitoba area at the mid-to-high $3 range for summer movement. If you are still sitting on unpriced milling quality, we can work on a bid FOB farm. Feed markets are weak for spot prices with bids around $2-2.30/bu on yard for those looking to sell product that is light or has other grains or wild oats. Oats acres are again expected to be up this year, though with spot prices dying off in recent weeks, likely some of the fervor towards planting more oats will have trailed off. Therefore, the increased acres may not be as heavy as some predictions.

Flax markets have had no big changes this week. We are seeing milling quality picked up at $14.00/bu into the summer months. Regular #1 quality is $13.00/bu for April/May FOB farm. Yellow flax is hovering at $16.00/bu in certain cases and new crop bids are available with an act of God on both brown and yellow. There have been some shipping interruptions as of late, but our tight Canadian supplies have prevented bids form dropping. The Black Sea region has also continued to export at a record pace since the 2019 harvest. The US demand has seen some improvements, but not enough to turn the market around. The flax market will likely continue in this holding pattern of prices until we see 2020 harvest numbers.

Canola futures markets have continued a slow climb this week. At time of writing, May futures were up $11/MT from the same time last week and are sitting at $467/MT. Much of the strength we have been seeing in our canola markets has come from piggybacking off soyoil and Malaysian palm oil. This strength has been subdued recently, with the CDN $ gaining approximately a half cent today. As usual, we recommend shopping around local basis level when looking to sell to find the best deal in your area.

Lentil markets are heating up today and buyers seem to be looking for all varieties and colors.  What started out as somber mood a week ago on commodities has sure changed in a hurry. Red lentils are trading at 23 cents FOB farm basis #2, X3 sits between 19-20 cents and #3 around 13 cents. Large green lentils #1/X2 are being bid at 24.5-25 cents FOB farm, #2 at 23 cents, X3 at 20 cents and #3’s at 13 cents.  Small green #1 quality continues to trade at 20 cents on #1 and 19 for a #2.  New crop prices for reds are trading 19.5-20 cents with an Act of God, large greens are trading at 23 for #1 and 21 for a number #2 with Act of God. New crop small greens are trading at the same values as old crop. At this point it is anyone’s guess where these markets will end up but taking advantage of rising markets is never a bad thing.

Barley markets are also responding this week with price starting to strengthen again. Seeing bids on old and new crop at $4.10/bu west side Sask and Eastern AB. We suspect pricing is likely seeing some strength due to a weaker dollar. New crop barley contracts are still limited, but as things seem to strength maybe more buyers come to the table for next year. Malt barley at this time is still quiet as buyers are not looking for much. If you are heading out into the field to get finish off the remaining harvest, make sure to get a test weight and moisture before trying to market as buyers will be concerned with the springtime quality.

In the last couple of days, broader markets have stabilized slightly. Massive aid packages are being prepared. We are seeing a Canadian dollar around 69 cents US, and we are seeing slight bumps in pricing on some commodities. Mustard, though, is slow to react and so far, the story remains the same. Pricing similar to last week. New crop is booking at solid levels. Yellow mustard remains at 38 cents for spot and new crop. Brown mustard is still at 27 cents FOB for spot and as high as 29 cents for new crop. This may be very hard to get though today. Oriental spot sits at 25 cents for Forge and 24 to 25 cents for Cutlass. New crop is as high as 28 cents FOB for Forge or Vulcan and 26 cents now for Cutlass. We encourage growers to set targets to show buyers you are a serious seller. We still have open acres for an IP Brown mustard program at a premium to commercial markets. We have certified seed available of all types, and we are focused on a fair and affordable value delivered to your yard.

Soybeans futures posting gains. A Chinese soybean shortage and bottlenecks in the South American logistics chain underpinned price strength in the soy complex this morning. Soybean cash bids in the range of $10.00 picked up on farm location dependent. Faba export demand on hold and feed bids still hanging on near $6 picked up. New crop dry bean production contracts are getting close to sold out…still a few acres available. Call your Rayglen merchant for more info.

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.


Rayglen Market Comments – March 18, 2020

Pricing remains unchanged in the pea market as uncertainty of what will happen in the coming weeks looms overhead. Let’s talk about what we do know; reports suggest 2020 pea acreage will be up approximately 2% over last year, with this increase likely coming from green peas. We can assume this as both spot and new crop bids on other peas remain soft. We have new crop green peas trading at $8.75/bu delivered and yellows at $6.50/bu delivered. Maple peas, like last week, are still struggling to get footing in this market. As we wait for Chinese demand to firm back up, we will see the odd maple pea trade at $8-$8.50/bu FOB, with many buyers sticking to no bid. Old crop yellow peas are at $7/bu delivered and greens are $11/bu delivered.

 

Oat bids, both old and new crop, have experienced ample declines since December. Many buyers have new crop bids on hold with a general consensus of increased seeded acres in 2020. Old crop bids remain in the $3.60-$3.70/bu delivered range out to July. Those delivered bids go into Manitoba, so with freight, central Sask could be seeing under $3.00 picked up. There are still opportunities to move feed oats, but that market also remains fairly flat with prices indicated around $2.00/bu. If you are needing some new seed, we can source some.

Flax bids over the last couple of weeks have pulled back slightly with a lot of unknowns in the market.  #1 quality is in the $12.50-$13.00/bu FOB range, while you still might capture $14.00 for milling quality with movement pushed out into the summer months.  New crop prices are still hanging in there at $12.25-$12.50/bu picked up. There were some vessels headed to China that are now being cancelled which is why we have seen reservations from buyers on moving any prompt product. Covid-19 isn’t the only thing affecting the flax prices. There is still competition from the Black Sea region which has limited potential sales. The US demand has seen some improvements, but not enough to turn the market around.  Bottom line, flax prices are likely to remain sideways going into the 2020 crop year.

Chickpea markets see another slip this week as buyers either pull their bids or drop to levels that leave a grower wondering whether or not they should be putting in the acres. While news of India receiving heavy rains before harvest loom, keep in mind these events were in the Northern part of the province and may not have the desired effect on chickpeas one might hope for. Old Crop values range from $0.20-$0.23/lb FOB farm with freight sensitivity and new crop hovering in the same levels. Desi chickpeas are indicated at $0.22/lb but nothing solid for this market. Feed chickpeas range from $0.08/lb-$0.10/lb FOB depending on the downgrading factors. If acres do decrease it could mean a potential uptick later down the line but with such uncertain times, there is no way to even estimate a timeline.

We continue to see static pricing in the canary seed market with bids once again holding at 27-28c/lb picked up on farm. We have noticed some fluctuation on movement, now ranging from May – July with most buyers having been backed up due to rail blockades and now the obvious. Flipping forward to new crop pricing, we seem to be hovering in that 21c/lb range. Tight ending stocks and strong spot markets may push new crop acres up, but do we see more producers growing canary uncontracted heading into harvest? Yet to been seen, but we suspect this could be the case as the current production values don’t seem to be buying and likely aren’t what most are hoping for.

Stock markets have been crashing nearly every day with big losses reported all around the globe. Thus far, Ag commodity markets have pulled through this downturn relatively well, with wheat not an exception. Some support can be attributed to recent rain and hailstorms in India, reported to have damaged winter planted crops such as wheat in the northern plains, threatening yield and quality. Today, feed wheat values hover around that $5.00/bu mark FOB on the west side of the province. The closer you are to Lethbridge the better the price, usually due to a logistical advantage.  Milling durum has been trading between $7.75-$8/bu FOB farm in the southeast part of Saskatchewan. The CWRS milling wheat price in Saskatchewan for June/July has been trading between $6.20-$6.34 delivered with a minimum protein of 12.5%.

Since our report last week, May canola futures took a bit of a tumble falling $12/MT to $448/MT on Monday. Since then, we’ve seen a small bump back up and at time of writing on Wednesday the price has recovered to $456.70/MT. Expectations are for this instability to continue as we try to find a solid footing in the financial markets in this new, isolated world we’re all living in. Long term, there should be potential for the market to rebound upwards as these uncertain times pass by.

Markets responding with an agitated cadence to each global news release. As an example, soybean oil finds strength predicated on news that Malaysia was shuttering businesses. Then futures retraced once it was determined Malaysian palm oil plantations would be exempt to the general business closure. Soybean meal offered support to soybean futures from news of overseas feed purchases. Fundamentals remain unchanged; big South American soybean crop, U.S. inventories still heavy but hopeful and China hasn’t waded back into the market in a significant way. End of the day, soybean cash bids remain largely unchanged at $9.70 picked up on farm in select locations. Faba export demand on hold and feed bids still hanging on near $6 picked up. New crop dry bean production contracts are getting close to sold out…still a few acres available. Call your Rayglen merchant for more info.

Lentil markets are quieter this week with very little trades taking place. There has been some interest in #1/X2 large greens with buyers offering to purchase between the 25-26 cents delivered. Average quality #2 lentils are trading between 20-22 cents delivered.  Old crop small greens continue trading at 20 cents FOB farm for a #1, and 19 cents FOB farm for #2. New crop is also trading at the previously mentioned prices. Red lentils trading at 20-21 cents delivered. Other market news that came out this week is that India may see some quality and quantity issues, as untimely weather has hit certain areas as they head into harvest. The full extent of the damage will likely not be fully realized for a few more weeks as most of the lentil harvest still a couple weeks away from starting. If there are problems with the crop and the dollar remains low, we may see rally in reds lentils.

The feed barley market still remains fairly strong with bids catching $4/bu or better in areas to the west. As we move east, bids remain in the mid to high $3’s as freight costs to feedlot alley become prohibitive. The falling Loonie may help support the barley prices as corn becomes more expensive to bring up from the USA.  There has been a bit of grower interest to lock some feed pricing for the fall at north of $4/bu, but buyer interest is pretty limited at this time as most don’t want to be overexposed in the current environment and talk of increased acres has some expecting more barley to be available in the fall. Malting contracts seem to be hit or miss, but firm targets have had a little luck on new crop for those looking to hedge for fall.

Mustard markets are quiet this week with everything happening financially in the world. We have been booking some new crop mustard and seed as growers look for cheap oilseed options to grow. Some crop in bins has been booking also at decent levels. Yellow mustard remains at 38 cents for spot and new crop. Brown mustard is stuck at 27 cents FOB for spot and as high as 29 cents for new crop. Oriental spot sits at 25 cents for Forge and 24 to 25 cents for Cutlass. New crop is as high as 28 FOB for Forge or Vulcan and 26 cents now for Cutlass. We encourage growers to set targets to show buyers you are a serious seller. We still have open acres for an IP Brown mustard program at a premium to commercial markets. We have certified seed available of all types, and we are focused on a fair and affordable value delivered to your yard.

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.


Rayglen Market Comments – March 11, 2020

Mustard markets have been steady over the last week other than a bit of disruption with the currency volatility. Reports of low ending stocks is a potential for upswing in 2nd-3rd quarter but keeping in mind that is predominantly made up of Oriental and Brown with Yellow being the variety in low supply. Globally the Ukraine and Russian export numbers have been steady since 2019 harvest. Where those markets historically have higher export seasons the flip to constant shipments has resulted in limited openings for Canadian markets to squeeze in shipments. The time for final decision making is near and with that values across the board have not changed from last week. We encourage growers to set targets to show buyers you are a serious seller. We still have open acres for an IP Brown mustard program at a premium to commercial markets as well certified seed is at your fingertips through us and we are focused on a fair and affordable value delivered to your yard.

 

There is some uncertainty in the global lentil markets, mostly linked to the coronavirus and how it could affect demand and movement of product. That being said, lentils are still getting shipped out, drawing down some ending stocks. The trade glitches that the market has experienced begun before the coronavirus and rail blockades. Australian lentil exports have been moving at a strong pace so far. Red lentil prices in India continue to sag and green lentils prices have had a sharper drop off in pricing.  Canadian prices are likely to stay sideways unless the Indian market rebounds. Spot prices on reds have been 23 cents/lb delivered over the last few weeks, #2 large greens around 21-22 cents/lb picked up, while small greens have remained sideways at 20 cents/lb for #1’s. We also have new crop programs available. India is expected to harvest its third largest pulse crop and with possible import restrictions and import duties placed on pulses, signing up some acres is not a bad play.

 

The markets have been running wild this past week, but the feed barley market seems to be removed from the chaos. Feed prices have come down a bit, but this is more affected by feedlot demand as per reports. Corn is going to be moving in at lower prices and we are going to have spring thrashed product coming into the market right away, which is affecting bids. Getting your feed barley contracted for the movement you need may be beneficial before spring thrashed product is being marketed. Current feed barley bids are $3.50 – 4/bu FOB with stronger bids in South west Sask. We do have some quicker movement options, but some buyers have already pushed back to June – July movements.

 

The state of our financial markets is weighing on canola values. We saw some gains on Tuesday in canola, but this morning canola was trading $1 – $2/mt lower, as per reports. As we see soyoil futures continue to dip, the canola values will also struggle to have any movement upward. For the short-term, we will continue to wait to find the bottom due this market instability. However, there may be some upside potential in the longer term, but with China holding value gains at bay due to their going issues with Canadian canola. Current canola values have been trading around $460/mt.

 

As world markets struggle due to the unknown impacts of Coronavirus, we have seen huge loses in the global economy. Ag commodities are among those that are affected, but surprisingly, pea markets are relatively stable for now. Yellow peas are still trading around $7/bu delivered and green peas have been trading around $11/bu delivered, mostly unchanged over the last few weeks.  The maple pea market has been trading around $8.50/bu delivered and could arguably be seen as the most affected, although bids haven’t fluctuated to terribly far of this year’s average. New crop yellow pea bids have been quiet, but indications remain around $6.50/bu delivered, while green pea new crop bids still trade between $8.75 to $9.00/bu delivered. This week we released a very limited new crop marrowfat pea program. Please call your Rayglen merchant for details.

 

The chickpea market remains a bit of an enigma with the occasional deal still in being priced in the mid-twenties range on good quality large Kabulis, with many other bids only scratching a low twenties price. Reports on the Indian crop are saying their chickpeas look good as a start for harvest, but they are grown more to the north in regions not as effected by the late rains. Feed quality product can be moved out still to clear bin space, but prices are off from the norms we would expect from the “dog food market” and bids remain in the 10-12 cent/lb range.  Expectations are that our chickpea acres will slide a bit from last year as disease issues leave a sour taste in the mouths of growers and marketing prospects are not overly enticing, with contracting levels in the low to mid-twenties.

 

Flax market prices remain stable, but sales are a little on the quiet side.  The shipping window for old crop sold today is April/May/June movement. Brown Flax is trading between $12.00-$13.50 for #1 quality and around $14.00/bu for milling quality.  New crop flax has been trading around the $12.50/bu FOB mark or $13.00/bu delivered; trading at the same level as last year at this time; Since January, exports have slipped from last year’s pace with China and Europe seeing the biggest decrease and the US about 14% shy of what they imported last year. The greatest cause for prices remaining firm at this point is the uncertainty of what is left out in the field and what the quality will be. Many buyers are uncertain on flax for next year as there are many conflicting thoughts on acres being seeding and what the export market will do if Coronavirus continues to stall out overseas trading.   

 

Despite heavy volatility in financial and futures markets over the past week, milling red spring wheat prices have felt only a pinch. Feed wheat and durum prices have held relatively flat throughout all the negativity in the market as well, with bids as high as $5/bu FOB farm on the west side of Saskatchewan, heading into Alberta. Most movement is pushed out to May, but some quick options are available if you can load primary weights. Milling durum has traded between $7.75-$8/bu FOB farm in southeast Saskatchewan with milling HRS wheat dropping down to $6.07-$6.21/bu delivered to plant for June-August movement.

 

Soybeans have not been immune to the global market woes over the past week. Thursday last week was the beginning of the slide for soybeans which ended in a futures gap down in the subsequent days. Global fundamentals reference the Brazil soybean harvest being well underway. As well, Argentinian farmers continue to protest an imposed export tax. Strikes have fizzled Argentinian exports over the past week. The USDA continues to increase the South American soybean production forecast. Local soybean bids are trading in the range of $9.70/bu picked up on farm. Faba market has gone quiet with many buyers pulling back and reassessing the market forward. #2 export bids are getting more difficult to find however feed bids still hover near $6/bu picked up. Attractive new crop dry bean production contracts are available but have limited acres available. Call your Rayglen merchant for more info.

The canary seed market is sounding a bit like a broken record on old crop. For the last month or so pricing values have hovered around that 28-29 c/lb with movement holding steady for Mar – May timeframe. We have seen some firm new crop bids quietly pop up at 21-22c/lb range delivered to plant. How attractive this price is to the producers remains to be seen. We may see a good chunk of product planted this year with SK Crop Insurance coverage at 25c/lb and the hopes of elevated pricing to come.

 

The oat market has been shaken by current events in world markets. Currently we still have some old crop bids delivered into Manitoba mills at the $3.60 to $3.80 range  Obviously, freight costs on a light product like oats make this number look not so attractive as you work it back into Central SK, but areas out East can still see the benefit.  Call us for FOB bids catered to your farm. Slight interest in feed oats is still around at the $1.80 to $2/bu range but the feeders are not that aggressive during these tense times in the market. Oats acres are still projected to increase a bit this year. This is no surprise, but prices going forward should be monitored.

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.

 

 

 


Rayglen Market Comments – Mar 5, 2020

Chickpeas continue to be the low light of the agriculture news but buzz about insurance coverage may give it new light. Sask crop insurance has come out stating under $0.20/lb coverage for next year which has got growers rethinking their planned acres. With new crop values hovering around $0.23-$0.24/lb and no end in sight for these mid twenty levels we may see chickpea acres flipped to cereals. Current crop values are practically at par with new crop with feed values remaining at $0.10/lb. If acres do decrease in a major way it could mean a return to value against the chickpea but again, this is a long game… put on the binoculars when thinking chickpeas!

COVID -19 has run rampant over the markets these past few weeks with traders skeptical about taking a position on either side. Although it seems this issue is far from over, we see and feel some rebounding in certain markets. The protesting and rail blockades also seem to have calmed down a bit and we hope to see more railcars moving throughout the prairies. With all that has happened lately, feed wheat prices have remained roughly the same with bids hitting between $4.50 to $5.00/bu FOB farm for a March/April/May time frame. Keep in mind road bans will be starting soon, if they have not already, so be sure to mention these things to your broker. Prices on CWRS with 13.5% protein for Jun/July/August have been trading between $6.27/bu to $6.40/bu delivered. For 12.5 % protein, bids are in the $6/bu range for June/July movement.  Milling durum values have been virtually untouched from last week, trading between $7.75 to $8.00/bu FOB the farm in southeast SK.

Export volumes on flax lag about 77,000 tonnes compared to last year. The lack of movement can be attributed to interruptions in exports to China due to the Coronavirus along with rail blockades. The Black Sea region has also continued to export at a record pace since the 2019 harvest. All of these factors combined with tight Canadian supplies have kept the bids from dropping. The prices on flax remain sideways this week with no big changes. Milling quality brown flax is $14.00/bu picked up for further out movement and #1 flax is trading at $12.50- $13.00/bu picked up. Golden flax sits at $16.00/bu FOB. The flax market will likely continue in this holding pattern of prices until we see 2020 harvest numbers. If you are looking for new crop opportunities along with seed, call us for details.

Canary seed continues to trade sideways for another week in a row. Pricing is holding firm in that 28-29c/lb delivered for that March – May movement. On the new crop side of things, the market remains soft. Sask Crop Insurance has come out and penciled this commodity for coverage as 25c/lb equal to our neighbors to the east and west of us. This coupled with current vaulted bids being the norm, expect these acres to increase. How much, remains to be determined as most growers are still trying to figure out the market in hopes of trying to pinpoint locking in some new crop acres.

The markets continue to struggle with export and movement though the pea market price hasn’t fluctuated much over the past weeks. Since the virus in China, there have been delays in port movement, but it has been reported now that some workers will be returning to their jobs. It will take some time to get everything flowing back to normal again, but it is a start. As per reports, we are expecting the 2020 pea acres in Russia and Ukraine to be down this year. If this is the case, Canada will face less competition into the European and Asian markets. Current prices haven’t made many changes this week, yellow peas are at $7 – 7.15/bu delivered, green peas at $11.00/bu delivered and maple pea at $8 – 8.50/bu FOB. Finding a maple pea bid is getting harder each week it seems, we have very few buyers with a current bid. New crop bids on yellows remain unchanged at $6.50/bu delivered while green peas saw an increase to $9.00/bu delivered (recommend taking advantage of this).

The feed barley market continues to hold on to solid prices. While movement has been getting pushed out towards May, $4/bu FOB farm has traded in certain areas. Most demand is heading west into Alberta, so prices are stronger on the west side of Saskatchewan. We have also seen some new crop values on feed barley show up so be sure to ask for a firm bid out of your area to ensure some fall cash flow. Bids are as high as $4/bu on the west side for Movement in January-February of 2021.

Canola has seen a slight rebound after a very harsh last week in the futures markets. Spot March futures have seen by far the biggest recovery with an increase of $8.10/MT on Wednesday alone. Much of these gains come from many of the G 7 countries making announcements to cut interest rates to help keep the economy afloat after the coronavirus has sent world financial markets spinning. Expectations are for this market to continue to be unstable until we can get back to some sort of “normal” global trade conditions

Lentils remain in a holding pattern with no change in value this week. Red lentils remain trading between 21 c/lb and 23 c/lb delivered. Large green lentils are trading around 21- 23 c/lb for a #2, while #1/X2 are trading between 26 and 27 c/lb. Small greens remain in the 19-20 c/lb range. New crop red lentils are still slow, but indications are coming in at 19 cents delivered. After a few targets were hit, we are unable to find the 20 cent FOB farm mark for now, although we still suggest targets. Markets seem to be quiet with all the uncertainty going on in the world. The lentil market seems to very reactive right now, so having your targets in place is the best way to take advantage of any upward price movement.  If you’re planning on selling product, the calendar may become the enemy as most buyers are into April/May movement. Once the calendar hits June who knows if buyers will just wait for new crop to be harvested or will they need short term coverage if crop conditions are poor? 

Nearby soybeans are up a bit as the US Fed cuts interest rates. Global financial stimulus efforts and rising vegetable oil prices helped May futures rise. The Argentine government will likely raise its recent tax on soybean exports by 3% to 33%. This will dissuade farmers from selling which in turn may direct Chinese purchases to Western ports. Local soybean bids are trading in the range of $9.50/bu picked up on farm. The faba market remains solidly supported due to Australian production shortfalls. Export quality bids on #2 faba’s are ranging from $9.00-$9.50/bu picked up on farm. Feed faba bids are trading a little plus or minus either side of $6.00/bu picked up on farm. Dry beans have experienced difficult growing conditions followed by even a more difficult harvest throughout most growing regions. This has led to reduced production levels but increased pricing support. Lucrative new crop production contracts are available but with limited acres available. Call your Rayglen merchant for more info.

Mustard remains in the same trading range again this week and we expect this trend to continue for the short term. Export demand remains sluggish for Canadian mustard, but we can start watching for a slight bump in price once the seaway opens later in spring, though we may not see any reaction in this uncertain market. New crop bookings have been taking place at good values. Yellow mustard bids sit at 38 cents/lb FOB for spot and 38 cents/lb on new crop with an Act of God. Brown mustard traded this week with old crop bids at 27 to 28 cents/lb FOB farm with new crop as high as 29 cents. This has been slowly softening over the last couple months. Oriental old crop sits at 23 c/lb for Cutlass and 25 c/lb for Forge or Vulcan FOB farm. New crop oriental has been strong at 26 c/lb for Cutlass and 28 cents for Forge or Vulcan. There is still an opportunity to get in on an IP brown mustard program at a premium. Call for information about this program and new crop offers. If you are looking for Certified seed at a competitive price call us for details as we carry a wide range, and have it delivered to your yard.

Oats bids are much weaker in recent weeks as oat futures have tailed off recently with the big moves we have seen in many markets. Currently we still have some old crop bids delivered into Manitoba mills at high $3’s and even touching $4 into the summer months. Obviously, freight costs on a light product like oats make this number look not so attractive as you work it back into Central SK, but areas out East can still see the benefit.  Slight interest in feed oats are still around at mid the $2/bu range but the feeders are not kicking down doors to secure product. Oats acres are projected to increase a bit this year at this time as big yields and prices from the past year are fresh in farmers’ minds.

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.


Rayglen Market Comments – February 26, 2020

We still see the same factors affecting the pea market this week; ongoing rail blockades hurt the short-term outlook, while the coronavirus is expected to affect demand in the future. Looking to India, they are expected to have decent pea yields this year, which will most likely keep tariffs in play. Locally, we saw green peas take a step back from the $11/bu FOB mark as they trade closer to $10.50/bu this week. Yellow peas are still at $7.00/bu delivered and finding a bid on maple peas is getting harder each week. New crop values are still quiet at $8 – $8.50/bu FOB on greens and yellows at $6.00/bu FOB.

The barley market is holding strong and $4/bu FOB farm is attainable in a few areas. Movement has been the deciding factor lately, as most buyers push into spring (April- May). This timeline is the norm for the most part, but some bids are being quoted for summer delivery, so locking up barley now is likely a good play. We are going to see corn move into the market at cheaper values in the near term and that is going to affect this market negatively. If you are able to market $4/bu FOB, we recommend taking advantage of it while you can. New crop values have been trading at $3.50 – $4/bu FOB with the stronger bids in southwest Sask and movement going into January – February.

The latest Stats Can reports show Canadian flax supplies down 30,000 tonnes from last year and the smallest since 2004/05. This has had no bearing on prices over the last several months with flax remaining at $14.00/bu for milling brown and $13.00/bu on #1 quality. New crop prices are sitting at $12.50/bu picked up. Yellow flax also remains stagnant at an indicated $16.00/bu FOB on old crop for high quality. There was a bit of a buying flurry late January, early Feb, but only minimal amounts of flax were shipped out of the country and that demand has faded off again. The Black Sea region continues to ship out flax at a record pace since the 2019 harvest. Flax prices in China have bumped a bit due to difficulties of bringing in Canadian or Russian supplies, but local prices still remain flat.

Chickpea markets reported 40,000MTS of export so far this year compared to last year of 60,000MTS with the predominant buyer being Pakistan. India is inching closer and closer to producing what could be a record chickpea crop and the Australian production is only slightly down with lower acres but higher yields. Current crop values hover at $0.24-$0.25/lb FOB farm and new crop slightly below. While it appears acres will not decrease globally in a significant way, it has been a hot topic for growers on deciding whether or not to sign production contracts. Largely the response is “Not at these levels” so suspect heavy spot trades in the 4th quarter of 2020. Desi chickpea markets are still quiet in North America and no indication of new crop values has emerged. Feed chickpeas come in around $.10/lb with value shifting sharply depending on downgrading factors.

Oats prices have been a lot tougher to track down this week as the oat’s futures have fallen off from the $3/bu US range to the $2.85/bu US range. Much of this likely traces back to the issues the whole market, grain, and stock, face with coronavirus. Quick, look through the report and count how many times you see coronavirus, I would bet its more than 10 times, this is just the newest issue causing all sorts of market turmoil and it’s affecting everything. Expectations are that oat seeded acres will be up have slowed down buyer interest in locking in product for the fall, while bids are tougher to track down. 

Soybean markets are getting pretty beat up by world issues right now as coronavirus, issues in palm oil and market instability all seem to weigh in. Currently, our bids picked up in the yard start with a $9, or in some cases, where freight costs add another kick to the teeth, an $8. Increased production from South America and out of the US, with acres coming back in from prevent plant, don’t paint a pretty forecast at this time either. Faba bean markets remain quiet this week as world supplies are back closer to norms which makes our small market less attractive. New crop prices have been tossed around near $8.00/bu picked up on edible quality, which is not a bad starting point for those growing the right varieties. Old crop opportunities on fabas still exist at $9-$9.50 range on #2 and $6/bu on feed quality.

Wheat has seen very little gain over the past while in feed or milling markets, but both remain relatively stable. The Coronavirus has put fear in world markets and is likely not leaving out wheat. The protestors and rail blockades have also hurt markets with product either not being shipped or loaded. With that being said, the feed wheat market has been trading between $4.50 to $5/bu FOB farm range. The closer you are to feedlot alley or Saskatoon, the better the prices have been. On CWRS with 13.5% protein, $6.30 to $6.45 for the summer months have been indicated bids, delivered plant. Lower protein, around 12.5%, carries roughly a 30-cent discount. On the milling durum side of things, the bids have been around $7.75 to $8.00/bu FOB the farm range more so in the southeast part of the province for further out movement. New crop durum has had similar values for 2020/2021 movement.

The markets are calm and quiet on canary seed right now. Pricing seems to be holding steady in that 28-29 cents/lb delivered to plant for Mar-May movement. Moving forward, we will continue to see tight carry-out stocks for the remainder of the crop year. What remains to be seen though is when the second round of buying comes into play, what impact on pricing does it have. Are the buyers long, thus covered quite well? Or are they short and needing more? This remains to be seen, so stay tuned. Looking ahead to new crop, we have seen the odd offer trigger, but once again the market is pretty quiet. Based on last week’s Stats Can, they’re forecasting increased acres due to marginally higher returns relative to other commodities and strong pricing that has been seen this year. Will we see these prices next year? Probably not, unless… we locally or globally run into a wreck this upcoming crop year pushing tight stocks even harder.

Lentils holding strong this week with old crop unchanged and new crop pricing available for red lentils. Old crop reds continue to trade around the 22-cent mark for spot delivery. New crop reds have been trading on firm offer at 20 cents FOB farm with an Act of God.  Harvest in India is about to start, and this should add some clarity to their supply and demand needs. Large greens remain unchanged with number #2 at 22 cents FOB Farm. No new crop trades have been done yet for the large green lentils as the price seems to be lower than what producers would like to sign.  Suspect that buyers will sit on the sidelines for a couple more weeks before really getting into the mode of buying crop for next fall. Most will wait for early India harvest results and for a clearer picture on Canadian seeded acreage breakdown. The consensus seems to be lentil acres will increase but will it be a shift into reds or large greens, and do the other remaining lentil classes remain unchanged.   

Canola had a bad start on Monday, and Tuesday wasn’t much better, with a tiny rebound to start today. The gains today are minimal compared to the heavy losses at the beginning of the week.  Monday saw a $7-$8/ tonne hit followed by another $2/tonne hit on Tuesday and this morning trading with about $1/tonne gain.  All markets took a hit on more concerns over the Coronavirus, but this not the only concern for the canola market.  Canadian Rail issues, decent crops coming out of other countries, the slowdown in the Chinese market and just overall lack of global trading on all products. The markets will remain on unstable ground until more clarity comes out on the aforementioned problems.

Mustard markets again remain quiet with prices trading flat from last week. Predicted acres being planted this year remain a debate. We have seen predictions all the way from 430,000 acres up to 500,000. This should be much clearer in a month. Good opportunities are still here for new crop bookings at good values. Yellow mustard bids sit at 40 cents/lb FOB for spot and 38 cents/lb on new crop with an Act of God. Brown mustard traded this week with old and new crop bids at 28 cents/lb FOB farm and Oriental old crop at 25 cents vs 28 cents/lb FOB farm for new crop Forge or Vulcan. There is still an opportunity to get in on an IP brown mustard program which takes a bit of extra work but also has a premium for your time. Call for information about this program and new crop offers. If you are looking for Certified seed at a competitive price call us for details as we carry a wide range, and have it delivered to your yard.

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.

 


Rayglen Market Comments – February 19, 2020

Flax prices have seen little to no change over the last few weeks.  Milling quality is still hovering around $14.00/bu picked up for further out movement.  Those with #1 flax, prices vary, but on average $13.00/bu picked up is available. We do have some opportunities for lower grade flax, send us samples so we can get the specs and a price. Yellow flax also remains unchanged, with $16.00/bu FOB out there on old crop in select locations. New crop values on flax still make sense, especially with all the other unknowns in the market, locking in $12.50/bu on brown and $14.00/bu on yellow pencils out decent. We already know there has been some weak demand in the market and analysts don’t expect prices to push much higher. Right now, low supply and product left out in the field is what is keeping prices from slipping further.

According to the StatsCan report, the seeded acreage for barley in the 2020-21 crop year is going to be down slightly because of increased carry in stocks and lower expected prices. That being said, prices have been consistently trading around $3.40 to $4/bu picked up on the farm for Mar/April/May time frame depending on location. On the malt side, we have seen some buyers potentially look at new crop for around $5.00/bu picked up variety specific and location dependent. Please call your merchant for details.

Canary seed markets have remained flat this week with bids continuing at 29-30 cents/lb delivered to plant in Saskatchewan. This lull isn’t considered a surprise as February is typically a quieter month for canary seed. On farm stocks are still tighter than what we’ve seen in the past and it won’t take much demand in the spring for prices to strengthen a bit prior to the new crop year. New crop prices have been slow to come out and we still don’t have much for firm bids. We think this is a good opportunity for grower targets with an act of God so be sure to give us a call with your firm number.

Chickpea markets hold steady as we start to see some slight gains in lentils and peas. Sellers are consistently on the market for bids, but buyers are not in a position to go long at any value today as we continue to watch Indian crop conditions and slowly eat through carry. No news out of Dubai on any expected shifts to the market or renewed buying interest that might spark life in this dead dog. Conversations surrounding new crop chickpeas have been less frequent than expected which could be a good sign that the acres will fall a bit for 2021. New crop levels of $0.23-$0.24/lb FOB farm with an AOG with old crop a tick or two higher. Feed chickpeas are still abundant as bids around $0.10/lb shake very little loose. This market is a game of chicken where everyone is shooting blanks because no one wants to get hurt.

The pea market saw a few price changes earlier this week. Yellow peas are trading at $7-7.15/bu delivered to plant and a few green pea trades have hit on target at $11.00/bu FOB. Maple peas, however, remain at the $8-8.50/bu FOB mark. As we all have seen, the rail blockades will be causing some short-term issues on contract movement and the continuing Coronavirus issue will keep pricing somewhat at bay. Back to pricing, targeting green peas at $11.00/bu FOB is a great option as we will soon see buyers start to wait till new crop to purchase green peas at a discount. Yellow peas will all depend on when China can come back to the market. New crop values are indicated as $8.00/bu on greens and $6.50/bu on yellows delivered plant with an act of God.

If only we were writing this yesterday and were able to jump on the wheat bandwagon. Instead today, everyone has jumped off. A little blip in the charts, so to speak this week, but much of the same old again today. There was some speculation that China may have buying interest, coupled with Australian wheat crop estimations being lower than anticipated and the Ukraine harvest production being less than anticipated lending into some interest. So, feed wheat bids continue to sit in that $4.50 – $5/bu FOB farm range with the odd hotspot that may garner a little more in that central Sask region. On a CWRS 13.5 pro look for that $6.40 del into the summer months. On milling durum, bids seem to be hanging out in that $8/bu FOB farm range in south east Sask for Mar – May. New crop durum prices are around that $8/bu FOB farm and add a little more bump for 2021 hold outs in south east Sask.

Red lentils have seen a slight increase in price this morning with a few places moving to a 23 cents/lb delivered bid for March – April movement. There has been no indication on what is really behind this latest spike in price. But we’ll take it. This surge has also popped up X3 lentil pricing to 20 cents/lb delivered yet the feed market is still trading near the 11-12 cent range. New crop red lentil contracts are still quiet. Large greens have not seen the same response this week and finding a #1/ X2 price is tough, but not impossible. Number 2 large green lentils are trading between 22 cents/lb FOB farm and 23.5 cents/lb delivered. There is no real news as of late to give any solid indication on what the market is going to do in the upcoming months. But stay tuned as next week we may see a little more direction from buyers as they return from the Gulf Food Show.

Concerns over Chinese demand have weighed on soybean markets, despite recent announcements by China to curb import tariffs on agricultural products including soybeans. Chinese purchases continued to strengthen U.S. soybean exports even though demand typically eases this time of year as the Brazilian soybean crop comes to market. Local soybean bids are trading in the range of $9.50/bu picked up on farm. The USDA showed total production of dry beans down 16.6% from the previous year, despite planted acres being up 3.1%.  Difficult growing conditions followed by even more difficult harvest conditions throughout most growing regions have led to reduced production levels. Conditions were similar in Canada and has thus been supportive for prices. The faba market remains solidly supported but with a price ceiling for the quality that Canada generally produces. Feb/Mar shipping on #2 export quality bids range from $9.00-$9.50/bu picked up on farm. Feed faba bids are trading a little plus or minus either side of $6.00/bu picked up on farm. There is very little interest in purchases beyond Feb/Mar shipping, thus now is a good time to explore marketing fabas.

The spot price on oats remains relatively strong as of late for pricing out into summer months on #2 milling quality.  Current bids in most areas of the province exceed $3/bu picked up on farm with stronger bids to the eastern half of the province. Many facilities are getting closer to the end of their book for the crop year so if you are on the fence about selling or waiting a little longer think about it sooner than later as space is limited. We don’t have a lot to show these days on new crop oats as many buyers are already bought up well through the fall. Expectations are oat seeded area will be up quite a bit this year, but some indications are a little north of $3/bu delivered to facility into Jan/March of 2021 at this time.

Mustard markets remain flat this week. We are seeing a bit more action as growers decide on their acres and new crop bookings and seed have been picking up. Yellow mustard bids are still attainable at 40 cents/lb FOB for spot and 38 cents/lb on new crop with an Act of God. This is and could mean an opportunity to lock in above-average values for the upcoming production. Brown mustard traded this week with old and new crop bids at 28 cents/lb FOB farm and Oriental old crop at 25 cents vs 28 cents/lb FOB farm for new crop Forge or Vulcan. There is still an opportunity to get in on an IP brown mustard program which takes a bit of extra work but also has a premium for your time. Call for information about this program and new crop offers. If you are looking for Certified seed at a competitive price call us for details as we carry a wide range, and have it delivered to your yard.

As we speak, March canola features are down $3 trading at $459/MT with local bids hovering around $9.78 delivered into plant for March. Continued trade issues around this commodity are entrenched even deeper with the blockades to rail traffic, frailer vegetable oil prices and import issues to China, due to the devastating effect of coronavirus in the country. Further out new crop movement for November has also pulled back $3 trading at $483/MT.

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.


Rayglen Market Comments – February 12, 2020

There have been a few sales of Canadian flax into the US in the last week, but likely not enough to offset the quiet Chinese demand. Flax bids have been $12.70-$13.00/bu picked up on #1 quality, while milling bids are in the $14.00-$14.25/bu range, FOB. Yellow flax prices also staying sideways around $16.00/bu in some cases. There has been some new crop business done on both, call us for pricing. Lower Canadian supplies are keeping bids from slipping, but also there aren’t any components to boost prices much higher. It is unknown if Russia will have continued supplies to keep shipping at strong levels, but what we do know is that Canada will struggle to compete in that market now that Kazakh flax is entering China. While the current situation in China could put some business on hold, take advantage of the flicker of opportunities that arise.

The oat market has been rather quiet this past week, which is pretty par for the course over the last few weeks. That being said, prices have been stronger than previous years at this time primarily due to quality concerns over this year’s crop.  Prices on good quality #2 CW oats have been trading around $3.25 – $3.50/bu FOB the farm. The closer you are to Manitoba the better the price gets. The feed oat price has been trading between $2.50 – $2.80/bu FOB the farm. This value is heavily dependent on location. If you are looking for the most up to date prices, please call your Rayglen merchant.

In general, we’ve started to see prices softening on feed barley this week as there isn’t as much demand on the buyer’s end. Look for pricing to hover around $3.40 – $3.80/bu picked up on farm for Mar/Apr movement on dry, heavy product. That being said, there is still some pretty solid pricing in western Sask and Alberta, the closer you get to feedlot alley. Flipping to the malt market, prices continue to skulk along as nothing new has shaken out on interest or pricing of old crop. On the other hand, we have seen the odd location entertain new crop malt (Metcalfe variety only) with 60bu/ac Act of God. So, if the possibility of getting some new crop on the books perks your interest, give your merchant a call.

Canary markets remain the same again this week with price ranging between 29 – 30 cents delivered. Movement is starting to run into late spring to early summer.  The buying side has been quiet as most are trying to clean up their Jan-March contracts at this point in time.  Buyers are still reluctant to sign up new crop contracts, but we suggest throwing out firm targets. Summertime might bring on some trades if new crop conditions are less than optimal and buyers feel they need more coverage before new crop is harvested.

Lentil markets continue to be soft this week. Red lentil bids are sitting in between 20 -21 cents delivered with movement out until April. Some buyers have pulled their bids all together as we all wait to see what the Indian harvest is going to produce for quantity and quality. The Gulf Food show takes place next week and maybe something comes out of that show for an update on world pulses. There are a couple of buyers still looking for #1/X2 large green lentils around the 26 cent FOB farm number. Regular #2 large greens are trading around 22 – 23 cents FOB farm. 

The canola market got a little bump up today with the March futures trading at $463/MT at time of writing, up almost $4. The increase follows strength in the whole veg oil market, as per reports. Various issues are still in the foreseeable future for Canola though; first, lack of imports from China due to trade issues are still relevant. Second, the coronavirus has ports shut down providing hurdles to incoming products and finally, talk of rail shutdowns due to roadblocks in BC add another element to the ambiguity of the local buying situation. Most bid indications we are hearing are in the mid $9/bu range with values pushing a little higher into summer months, back up to $10 delivered to plant. At this time the canola market is just something a lot of guys are keeping an eye on to see if some rallies pop up.

Soybean futures have staged a modest comeback from Feb 3rd lows. Recent WASDE report added a bit more support by raising US exports by 50M bushels. Support also came through the veg oil complex with Malaysian palm oil short-covering pushing palm oil futures higher. On the other side of the coin, Brazilian new crop prospects continue to weigh on market gains with an ever-escalating 4.59B bushel crop. Moreover, speculation persists as to the impact coronavirus will have on Phase 1 trade negotiations and trade execution. Local soybean bids are trading in the range of $9.50/bu picked up on farm. The USDA showed total production of dry beans down 16.6% from the previous year, despite planted acres being up 3.1.  Difficult growing conditions followed by even more difficult harvest conditions throughout most growing regions have led to reduced production levels. Conditions were similar in Canada and has thus been supportive for prices. The faba market remains solidly supported but seems to have a price ceiling for the quality that Canada generally produces. Feb/Mar shipping with #2 export quality bids ranging from $9.00-$9.50/bu picked up on farm. Feed faba bids trading a little plus or minus either side of $6.00/bu picked up on farm. Very little interest in purchases beyond Feb/Mar shipping, thus a good time to explore marketing fabas.

The pea market has seen very little changes from last week on the price side. Yellow peas are at $6.90/bu delivered, green peas are $11.00/bu delivered and maple peas are $8.50/bu delivered. Where we are seeing concern is in the yellow pea market with China’s situation. The bulk of our yellow pea exports go into China and the coronavirus has brought uncertainty to the markets. The main question is, “when will China will come back to the market”, and this is the question that has many traders uneasy with our current environment. New crop bids are slow to pop up but yellow peas at $6.00/bu delivered and green peas at $8.00/bu delivered seem to be where buyers feel comfortable entertaining offers.

Imagine you are in a sensory deprivation tank and your hour is up but the attendant never comes back to open the door. It is silent, cold and you are wondering, when will this end?! That is the chickpea market. Current values unchanged at $0.24-0.25/lb with a similar value for new crop. There is very little information floating around about the fate of chickpeas over the next couple of months and with that, the buyers show no interest in taking a position. All the cards seem to be in the hands of mother nature and the way it plays out for the coming crop. Poor weather could mean a force-feeding of carry from previous years and heightened value. Average weather translates to more of the same sensory depriving market. It’s been said and it will continue to be said, offers are the best way to find the true value of the market and get a bit of “shine” out of this grey zone chickpea market.

Mustard old and new crop markets remain unchanged this week as grower lament over what is the chosen oilseed for the coming season. Spot old crop and new crop Yellow mustard are at parity which is unusual at this time of year with bids at $0.38/lb FOB and could mean an opportunity to lock in above-average values for the coming production. Brown mustard is a similar situation with old and new crop bids at $0.28/lb FOB farm and Oriental old crop at $0.25 vs $0.28/lb FOB farm for new crop. There is still an opportunity to get in on an IP program which takes a bit of extra work but also has a premium for your time. Call for opportunity options. If you are looking for Certified seed at a competitive price call us for details as well to discuss the options for this year’s rotation.

Feed wheat markets are flat this week, which has been the case for some time now. Heavy and dry feed wheat/durum bids are trading between $4.50-$5/bu FOB farm with movement starting to get pushed out to April/May timeframes for the strongest bids. The closer you are to southern Alberta, the better the price gets. We do have some possible premium opportunities in Saskatchewan for higher protein feed wheat as well, so be sure to let us know your specs to firm up the price. Milling quality HRS wheat bids are still looking good for movement in the summer around $6.50/bu delivered to plant. 1 CWAD bids are still at $8/bu FOB farm in southeast Saskatchewan with bids softening the further north and west you get.

 

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.


Rayglen Market Comments – February 5, 2020

Flax export demand has been limited out of Canada and if the price stays high relative to other crops, the Black Sea region will continue shipping into the market. Chinese flax imports increased in December, however, only 24,600 tonnes came from Canada while 49,400 tonnes were shipped form Russian and Kazakhstan as per analysts. The larger US crop has also limited Canadian supplies. It is unknown if Russia will have continued supplies to keep shipping at strong levels, but what we do know is that Canada will struggle to compete in that market now that Kazakh flax is entering the Chinese market. The coronavirus also has potential to interrupt global trades on flax shipments. Rail and ocean shipping could be restricted. The situation over there is evolving quickly and it is unknown how long the crisis will last, which could put some business on hold for the short term. For those looking to put some acres on the books for 2020, we have some new crop bids starting at $12.50/bu picked up.

 

The pea market has had little change since last week. Still the unexpected shock is the coronavirus and how it has affected China’s overall markets. This fear has brought uncertainty to the market, which has buyers staying more reserved in pricing. We know that things are worse than originally let on and this, along with the Chinese New Year that occurred quite close together, have the pea prices holding quiet. Current pricing is at $11.00/bu delivered on green peas, $9.00/bu delivered on maple peas (locations are limited) and yellow peas at $7.00/bu delivered. New crop values have yet to really surface, but we are expecting greens around $8.00 – $8.50/bu, yellows at $6.00/bu and maple peas have seen a few trades at $9.00/bu.

 

There is not much new to report on canary seed this week as markets remain comfortable. There has been no movement on price with bids still sitting at 28 to 29 c/lb FOB farm for Mar/April movement. New crop pricing for canary seed remains unbid, but grower offers are being put up in the 24 to 25 c/lb range with an act of God. Thus far most have gone untriggered, but a few have been picked off. We still don’t think it is a bad idea to try and get something locked up for the fall in this price range via firm target. If you are looking for the most up to date prices in your area, please call your Rayglen merchant for details.

 

Feed wheat prices this week remain about the same as last. Current bids range from $4.50 to $5.00/bu picked up in yard with that spread heavily varied by things like farm location (stronger bids closer to feedlot alley), timeline (prompt movement prices are depressed some) and grain quality (high moisture, heating, high vomitoxin – all will contribute to lower prices). If you have decent quality feed with some protein, we may have a buyer looking to price up a little more in select areas.  Milling wheat bids on a #1 CWRS, 13.5% are slightly up ranging from $6.50 to $6.60/bu delivered to plant in central Sask into the summer months. Durum prices remain around $8/bu for #1, 13.5% in the southeast corner of Sask and prices get worse as you deviate from that area. Most of the price support this week likely draws back to a weaker loonie against the US greenback.  

 

Chickpea markets see a glimmer of hope with USDA reports showing current exports well ahead of last year. On the flip side, Indian chickpea acres are seeded and set to see an 11% increase over last year and up 14% over a 5-year average. While this is predominantly desi chickpeas, it does affect the kabuli market congruently. The numbers on kabulis are not yet clear for Indian seeded acres. Turkey and India exports are struggling like Canada, as domestic supplies are ample and the need to buy elsewhere is finite. New crop values remain around $0.24/lb on farm and delivered depending on the location and mixed sizing. Steady Eddy is the name of the game on old crop chickpea pricing as it continues to hover around that $0.25-$0.26/lb on farm depending on shipment period.

 

Soybeans have staged a small recovery from Monday’s market lows… this might be a turning point or just a dead cat bounce. Markets generally poised in a pregnant pause as more “facts” leak out of China regarding the 2019 Novel Coronavirus. In the wake of the 2019-nCoV viruses’ impact on China, the Chinese government has asked for an extension as it relates to “phase 1” trade agreement execution. However, contrary to what the Chinese government indicated they intend to increase agricultural imports as a means to rebuild the decimated national swine herd. That leaves North American markets wondering what this will mean for soybean exports as Brazil is currently ~10% complete soybean harvest and staring down the barrel of a record soybean crop of 4.56 billion bushels. Local soybean bids are trading in the range of $9.50/bu picked up on farm. Dry bean market will remain supportive well into the new crop contracting period, predicated on disappointing production levels this fall. The faba market is starting to show a little life for Feb/Mar pre-Ramadan shipping with #2 export quality bids ranging from $9.00-$9.50/bu picked up on farm. Feed faba bids trading a little plus or minus either side of $6.00/bu picked up on farm.

We continue to field calls on feed barley as pricing continues to support this market, considering there was over a 20% increase in barley production this year totaling over 10MMT. That being said, feed pricing continues to trend in that $3.50 – $4.25 for dry, heavy product. The closer to Alberta the better as the large majority of the feed runs are headed into feed lot alley as quick as the buyers can find the trucks. One thing to keep in mind moving forward is road bans and winter weights coming off. Let you grain marketer know if you are on those secondary roadways. The malt market continues to tip toe around new and old crop pricing as it’s been hard to locate. Fingers crossed the pricing starts to roll out soon.

 

Lentils remain sideway this week as prices have not changed since last week’s commentary. Markets will likely remain flat until processors work through product bought in late December and early January. The Statistics Canada’s stocks report was released today with lentils ending at 1.8 MMT down from 2.11 MT in 2018, but still a head of the five-year average of 1.757 MMT.  The carryover stocks will have little effect on pricing at this point as India waits for the Rabi crop to be harvested. The carry out stock may affect further out pricing if Canada reduces lentil acres and the Rabi crop is less than expected.  A springtime rally will likely be the next time there is a pop in the market.  Pricing this week on #2 reds sits at 21-22 c/lb, X2 large greens 25-26 c/lb, #2 large greens 22-23 c/lb, and #1 small greens 20-21 c/lb. All indicated as FOB farm.  New crop bids are lacking at the moment, which indicates that buyers are not concerned about locking up any contracts at this time.

 

Oats prices continue sideways this week despite the Canadian Grain Stocks report being released and showing an increase in oat stocks of 11% over last year, as of December 31st, 2019. Even with this news, the futures board is mainly green leading one to believe there remains enough quality concerns for prices to hold strong up until new crop gets within reach. That being said, feed oats are trading between $2.50-$2.80/bu FOB farm depending on location. If you have good quality feed oats be sure to get us samples as we do have a special program that may be able to bump that price up for you if they meet the required specs. On the milling side, we’re seeing bids between $3.25-$3.50/bu FOB farm with the best options being closer to southern Manitoba.

 

Canola futures have started to rebound after what was a big decrease down to technical support levels last week. Caution remains in place, although less severe, due to the coronavirus in China but improvement in vegetable oil prices around the world have helped the canola market strengthen. With the losses from last week, buyers in China and around the world should see these low prices as a value buy. Buyers coming back into the market are part of the reason why we are seeing the futures price increase. Prices haven’t fully recovered but check local basis levels for April/May to see if cash bids can top $10/bu.

 

We have not seen much change in mustard this week other than new crop yellow bids slipping a bit into the 38 to 39 cent per pound range. However, these new crop bids remain strong, and growers have been putting some acres into contract. Brown and oriental bids are holding with up to 28 cents FOB trading on both. The hybrid brown variety isn’t seeing much interest and oriental preferred varieties are Forge or Vulcan. Call your merchant for up to date prices on these and other varieties. Spot yellow remains strong, trading at 40 cents/lb FOB, brown is trading at 28 cents/lb FOB and oriental sits at 23 cents/lb FOB for Cutlass and a bit higher for Forge and Vulcan, likely in the 25-cent range. Seed has been booking for all varieties so, please call your merchant for prices on certified and treated options delivered to your yard. Again, we think nothing is more important than starting your new crop off right using certified seed, especially with mustard. The risks are just too great to start with poor seed and endanger a #1 grade right from the start.

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.


Rayglen Market Comments – January 29, 2020

The pea market has seen a bit of a decline in pricing; specifically, green and maple peas. Right now, the Chinese New Year is going on and we typically see a bit of a slowdown in markets during this time. However, along with the Chinese New Year, the markets are also reacting to the new Coronavirus in China. Due to these circumstances we have seen green peas pull back to $10.50 – 11.00/bu FOB, maples peas to $8.50/bu FOB and yellow peas to $6.90/bu delivered. New crop values have also been slow to come to the market. Once the Chinese New Year comes to an end, we hope to see values firm back up. As per Stat reports, the Indian government may also be coming out with a separate green pea import quota (no longer a quota for yellows, greens and others combined), if this happens, we could see green pea prices firm back up.

Lack of flax export demand has kept the pricing at a standstill.  For those with milling quality, we still have values in the $14.00-$14.25/bu FOB range with further out movement. New crop values are showing $12.50/bu picked up with an Act of God.  Sellers with #1 quality can see prices range from $12.00-$13.00/bu. For those looking for new flax seed we have supplies available. Bids still remain at multi-year highs and Canadian supplies are tight enough that bids are not expected to slip back. At the same time, there is no indication that prices will jump up. Cheaper Russian and Kazakh flax continues to limit Canadian flax to China and possibly the EU.

Malt barley opportunities for old and new crop contracts have been few and far between.  We do have some buyers that have been taking in samples of old crop and have been purchasing on a case by case basis, but it has not been very much or that often yet. There are possibly some loaded rail opportunities in Saskatchewan at that $5.00/bu range.  The contracts that have been trading on new crop malt, has been variety specific and with an act of God clause.  The feed barley market has been fairly stable and has been trading between $3.40 to $4.25 for dry and heavy feed barley.  Most of the feed barley we have been trading has been going to feed lot alley in Alberta. Trying to get as close to $4.00 has been a challenge because of freight, so the further west the grain is, the better the price.

Once again, the market remains flat this week on canary seed as the seasonal pop in pricing isn’t expected to trickle out for a few more weeks. Regarding pricing, we are still seeing some 30 cents/lb delivered into a few plants so look to see that 28-29 cents/lb FOB farm trading for that Mar-Apr movement. We don’t have any official new crop pricing, but we continue to field questions on it.  A couple production offers have triggered so, give your Rayglen merchant a call if you have a target in mind. Some food for thought, the reports out of Argentina are showing that their canary crop has decreased in size by just over 40% from the previous year. That coupled with the smallest recordings of export for them since 2012 and now projected lower exports expected for the 2019/20 crop translates to even fewer exports for 2020. With Argentina’s woes and our issues with harvest this past year acres will increase, it’s just where does the pricing land?

No change from last week to this on feed wheat pricing as the market seems to be fetching any where from $4.50 -$5.00/bu FOB farm depending on location. Much the same with #1 CWRS with 13.5% protein as prices are still ranging in the $6.40 – $6.50/bu delivered to plant in central Sask with pushed out movement into June/July. However, no change cannot be said for the futures board. If you take a gander at it, you will have noticed a strong pull back on US wheat futures. This is in large part thanks to speculation that China seems to be pulling wheat from literally everyone but the US. Watch for this to continue for the next little bit.

Lentil prices have sure softened since last week.  They seem to be following the rest of the markets that are responding negatively to the news of China’s coronavirus situation. Some buyers have gone as far as showing no real interest in red or green lentils.The coronavirus may be just part of the problem as markets could also be trending down due to top heavy prices and where exporters see the grain as desirable again. Large green lentils trading at 25-26 cents for an X2, 21-22 cents for #2. Small greens 19-20 cents for a #1, 17-18 cents for a #2. Red lentils trading at 20-21 cents for a no.2 and 18 cents for #3.  Just as the sunshine was starting to shine on lentils again another storm cloud appeared; hopefully like most storms this will pass by quickly.

Chickpea markets remain unchanged. New crop values are coming in around $0.24/lb FOB and delivered depending on the location and mixed sizing. Old crop is $0.25-$0.26/lb FOB depending on the movement you are looking for. It has continually been said that this market will remain in this holding pattern for the unforeseeable and the global scare of the coronavirus is not helping speed that process along. Offers slightly above market tend to catch a buyer’s interest otherwise, bins are closed for the time being.

Oats continue their sideways trend this week with very little news coming out to have any effect on prices. Bids for heavy and dry feed oats are in the $2.50-$2.80/bushel FOB farm range. We do have some small opportunities in eastern Saskatchewan and Manitoba for feed oats that can be used for a special purpose. These oats need to be low sprouted and could fetch as high as $3/bu FOB farm. On the milling side of the market, bids continue between $3-$3.50/bu FOB farm with the best bids being closer to southern Manitoba. New crop bids have been showing up so be sure to give us a call for bids in your area.

Soybean futures are sideways at time of writing after a mostly downward week in prices thus far. A lack of buying from China due to multiple factors; Swine flu, Coronavirus and Chinese New Year holidays keeps a cap on things along with reports for higher production from South America adds in as well. Despite all this the prices for old crop soybeans in the bin remain pretty decent with bids over $10/bu picked up attainable in many areas for movement in the springtime. Faba bean prices have been strong this past week or two with a few good quality #2 trading at north of $9/bu picked up in the yard. For growers looking to seed some and interested in new crop acres we have a couple buyers that have shown some interest to contract so touch base with your merchant.

 

Canola futures have taken a nosedive down to technical support levels, following the lead of most exchange traded commodities. Markets had been on a nice steady upward run and then the coronavirus news hit the air waves and in the absence of a “phase 2” US/China deal…well the writing was on the wall. Specifically, to canola, commercial stocks are heavy year over year due to steady farmer deliveries. Seed exports through licensed elevators is down (China), whereas year over year total disappearance is running 2.7% higher due to brisk crush plant business. Nearby canola bids will be under pressure due to heavy channel inventories, thus selling into deferred delivery positions will often bring higher returns. Same goes for new crop, any pop in the futures should draw one’s attention to pricing new crop values. April/May delivery bids are holding over that $10/bu del’d benchmark and new crop is largely flat to deferred old crop bids. Call your Rayglen merchant for competitive FOB farm canola bids.

 

Mustard remains flat this past week. Some new crop bookings on yellow mustard have trickled in and some spot trades also on all types has been trading. New crop bids remain strong, especially true for yellow mustard, and Forge or Vulcan oriental mustard. Prices are around 38 cents for yellow and 28 cents for brown. Prices up to 28 cents FOB have traded on oriental if seeding Forge of Vulcan. Call your merchant for up to date prices on these. This week spot yellow is trading at 40 to 41 cents/lb FOB, brown is trading at 28 cents/lb and oriental sits at 23 cents/lb for Cutlass and a bit higher for Forge and Vulcan, likely in the 25-cent range. Seed has been booking for all varieties so, please call your merchant for prices for certified and treated options delivered to your yard. Again, we like to stress, nothing is more important than starting your new crop off right using certified seed, especially with mustard. The risks are just too great.

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.


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