Grain News

Canadian flax acres are expected to decline for the 2023/24 crop year; however, supplies will be slightly larger due to an uptick in carryover stocks, and we’ll need to see export demand increase for this market to recover. The US has been the main destination for Canadian flax with very small amounts headed to China. Russia and Kazakhstan are still dominating the Chinese market with their production. Pricing indications on flax sit around $14.00/bu picked up this week with very few buyers in the mix. These prices are frustrating for Canadian flax growers, but early reports suggest this could discourage planting acres overseas. While it is early, these reports show the first signal that declining prices and heavy supply could reset global markets. If there is a reset, it will likely be gradual.

For the most part, barley markets remain unchanged, with bids and demand stable for a few weeks now. Old crop feed is still triggering around $7.50 – $8.00/bu FOB farm depending on area and shipping window. New crop values continue to be quoted anywhere in that $6.25 – $7.00/bu FOB farm range, again subject to freight and shipping timeline. Growers with sales targets are highly encouraged to post a firm offer up. These prices remain a great starting point to get some product sold into. Recent rumblings over the past few weeks suggest that we will eventually see a price correction and values will fade. Although we hope that these are in fact just rumours, the reality of it is, if the market does take a turn for the worst, we could see substantial drops overnight as opposed to a, “slow leak,” over a few weeks. With what appears to be some decent snow cover throughout the prairies, locking in a percent of what you expect to produce this year just makes sense!

Canaryseed prices continue to hold firm and see little change week over week. Spot prices hold at $0.37-0.38/lb FOB farm, with the odd half cent premium for delivered product to various plants in SK. New crop continues to sit as one of the stronger production programs available, with multiple buyers looking for acres at $0.34-0.35/lb for FOB farm. With fall movement options on new crop, this continues to be a program that has the ability to generate quick cash flow throughout harvest. Looking at Canadian and world markets, forecasted Canadian acreage still sits around 300,000. The first half total for 22/23 exports amounted to 102,000MT, which is up from last year’s 83,000MT. Additionally, CGC is reporting farmer deliveries to elevators above average, but in line with the 5-year. Despite steady movement, continued discrepancy on Mexico’s trade data has some believing Canadian canary supplies could be larger than it seems. With steady bids and strong exports, the market appears to be balanced and the current price environment could hold for some time.

The wheat market has paid close attention to the expiry and renewal of the Black Sea Grain Initiative over the past several weeks. The deal was extended for 60 days, half of the intended time wanted by Ukraine. Reports suggest that Moscow would only extend the agreement to anything longer than 60 days if Western sanctions were removed. Additional news in world wheat: the U.S winter wheat crop remains under stress and offers opportunity for Canadian prairie farmers. With a large area of winter wheat under, “extreme to exceptional,” drought conditions, increased wheat acres in Canada could help offset reduced U.S. production. Looking at local markets, spot trading for CWRS 12.5 pro sits around $11.00/bu delivered SK. Old crop spot trading for durum has slowed down, with some buyers’ needs full for the time being. Some have dropped durum spot prices to $12.00/bu delivered, while a few continue to buy just shy of $13.00/bu delivered. New crop durum has seen little change, and values still sit around $11.00/bu FOB in SK. Feed wheat values range from $10.00-10.50/bu FOB, and $10.75/bu delivered Lethbridge. New crop feed values into Lethbridge sit around $10.30/bu.

Spot pea pricing is a little all over the map this week, but the “top dogs” are maple peas, which are trading anywhere from $17 – $18.50/bu picked up on the farm depending on location and variety. Sliding into second place we have green peas, which are trading at $13.50 – $14/bu picked up on the farm; freight will be the biggest detractor. Finally, we have yellow peas tailing the group with bids on the west side of Sask currently quoted at $13/bu delivered in. Eastern Sask yellow pea bids are seeing values closer to $11.25 – $11.75/bu; however there has been the odd grower target triggering along the southeast SK/MB border at $12.50/bu for late spring/summer shipping. New crop pea programs remain largely uninteresting to growers, but we do have a specialty program in Southern AB at $14/bu delivered with an AOG. Call your merchant for details! Sask bids are sitting a bit softer, quoted around $12/bu delivered in with an AOG. New crop green and maple pea trades have been quiet with bids ranging around $11 – $14/bu depending on location and variety.

The oat market remains quiet as most buyers are mostly covered until fall. Looking through data from StatsCan may provide a good explanation on why the market is so quiet. The supply numbers tell the story; in December, stocks were pegged at 3.6MMT, up 91% from a year ago and the highest on record. In addition to the huge supply, the export market has also seen a downturn providing the perfect storm for this lackluster market. Expected ending stocks are pegged at 1.2MMT, which is 4 times the 2021-22 carryout and just about double the five-year average. This amount of carryover will take markets a while to work through. The upside in all of this is that acreage is pegged to see a minimum reduction of 30% and possibly as high as 50%. Alas, even with this large reduction in acres, average production numbers could still set next year’s supply 6% higher than the five-year average, and would put some pressure on pricing to start the 23/24 crop year. Patience is going to be key going forward as there is a lot of product to move and not many places to move it. Bids this week have been as high as $3.70/bu in the right location for #2 oats and as low as $3.40/bu for feed. All bids are quoted as FOB farm with movement for as far out as July.

Chickpea exports out of Canada maintain strength in the first quarter of 2023. Speculation of increased acres in both Canada and the US still leave a bullish tone as there is concern of steady supply chain availability. Reports of less-than-ideal crop conditions in Mexico and producers planning fewer acres support that bull. Conversations around new crop production contracts are far less frequent than expected and have the trade wondering if the increase in acres will be as aggressive as anticipated. Old crop #2 large Kabuli bids sit around $0.50/lb FOB farm, give or take a penny or two for April-May movement, with new crop bids generally at $0.44-0.45/lb, with a few outliers at $0.46/lb FOB farm with an AOG. With all the talk of big acres, putting something on the books may not be the worst idea one can make. Feed values slipped a little with bids now quoted around $0.30-$0.35/lb FOB farm. Pet food is a wild card though and when demand peeks, prices can jump significantly. Get on our email/text blasts for sudden shifts in the market to be first to know.

Canola markets have been seeing day after day losses over the past half month. We have seen May futures come down from $820/MT to, at time of writing, the current level of $722/MT. That’s a loss of over $2.22 cents per bushel in 16 days… not pretty. Why is this happening you ask? It’s a multitude of reasons all adding up: soybean markets are a big cause as they have fallen a matching timeline due to expected increases in production from South America; acres and production for the upcoming canola crop are expecting increases; word that changes in US biofuel rules would reduce markets for Canadian product don’t help, and talk that Canadian product is too expensive to compete in the EU veg oil market all seem to be partial factors. Basis levels in the province are still showing wide discrepancies from north to south, and east to west, so it is best to shop around for the top opportunities and make sure you are getting the top dollar on the day.

New crop mustard bids have fluctuated a bit this week and we’ve seen some buyers step up to the plate to book product a little higher than the mid 60 cent/lb range we’ve been seeing lately. Spot markets remain fairly flat, but still strong historically and worth taking a look at. Spot values remain around $0.90/lb for yellow mustard, $0.78/lb for brown, and $0.82/lb on oriental. It is very important to talk to your merchant as these prices fluctuate daily depending on the needs of the buyer. New crop pricing remains in the $0.66/lb area for oriental, brown possibly at $0.70/lb, and yellow also in the low $0.70’s today, all including an AOG for full crop year movement. Seed sales are wrapping up and our supplier has begun treating and packaging. There may still be a chance to book some last-minute product at this late stage, so talk to us if you are in need. We have found room on delivery trucks in some cases.

Lentil markets remain stable this week, which is good news as prices are attractive and worth a good look. Expectations for the coming year are that lentil acres will fall by at least 5%, with the majority of that loss representing red lentils. The trade appears to be bullish green lentils due to concerns over India’s pigeon pea crop. Getting into the numbers, #2 red lentils are trading at 35.5cents/lb delivered to various plants for old crop, while new crop is at 32 cents/lb FOB farm with an AOG on 10 bu/acre. Standard #2 large greens are trading in the 53-54 cent/lb range FOB farm for old crop. New crop large greens have been getting booked up steadily at 48 cents/lb FOB farm with an AOG for a #2 quality. These contracts pencil out nicely and can have a 5-10 bu/acre AOG. Old crop small greens aren’t too far behind with contracts available for 50 cents/lb FOB on a #1 quality. New crop small greens sit at 43 cents/lb FOB farm for a #1 with an AOG as well. As commodity markets take daily losses, these lentil values become even more attractive in ensuring profitability on the farm.

Soybean futures have taken another step down in large part due to near record Brazilian production forecasts. Local bids are still holding up quite well at $18.25-$18.75/bu FOB farm location dependent. Local dry bean bids in Mexico have shown promising increases due to lower production. New crop dry bean contracts are available with price points ranging from 46¢/lb on higher volume more common classes to 70¢/lb on specific specialty classes. Canadian faba exports have been light, largely due to competitive export pressures from countries such as Australia. Australia is reporting their 3^rd largest faba crop in the last 10yrs. Feed quality fabas continue to be supported by pet food values. Local bids with export quality #2 faba bids being in the range of $13.50-$14.00/bu FOB farm and feed quality values are near $10.00-$10.50/bu FOB farm location dependent.

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.

Mustard markets remain fairly stable this week with spot and new crop bookings rolling in at a much slower pace. More accumulative snow was seen from the winter storm that streaked across southern Saskatchewan over the weekend, offering better planting moisture even if just marginal, which is seen as a positive for the upcoming crop. Spot values remain in the $0.90/lb range for yellow mustard, and the $0.82-$0.85/lb range for brown and oriental. It is very important to talk to your merchant as these prices fluctuate daily depending on needs of the buyer. New crop pricing remains the in the $0.60’s for oriental and brown, with yellow showing bids in the $0.75/lb today, all including an AOG for full crop year movement. Even with softer new crop values now, all three classes of mustard are showing returns with great margin rankings according to analysts. Pair that with an expected large increase in acres and growers are still encouraged to get the first 10bpa locked in. Seed sales are wrapping up and our supplier has begun treating and packaging. There may still be a chance to book some last-minute product at this late stage, so talk to us if you are in need.

Lentil markets remain strong this week mainly due to speculation that the Indian pigeon pea crop will be smaller than expected. Other factors include reduced Canadian acres and limited shipping capacity out of Australia, all working together to provide a much-welcomed uptick in bids. Green lentils will see a pricing benefit from the poor pigeon pea crop, while reds will benefit from Australian news and speculation of reduced acres. Large green lentil prices are fairly stable at 53 cents/lb FOB for old crop with the odd target triggering slightly higher. New crop large green pricing ranges from buyer to buyer with the highest trades taking place at 48 cent/lb FOB with an act of God. Red lentils have a handful of buyers looking to purchase old crop at 34-35 cents/lb FOB farm, while new crop trades as high as 33 cents FOB farm with act of God.  Small green lentil spot bids have hit 50 cents/lb again this week and targets at 45 cents for new crop have also triggered. Of all the forementioned bids, new crop large greens have seen the most uptick as many growers see the expected increase in acres next season. All options for lentils right now look better than only a month or two ago. We encourage growers to take a hard look at these values and not miss the opportunities that present themselves today.

Canaryseed markets remain virtually unchanged this week without much new to report. Old crop is still trading in the $0.36 – $0.38/lb FOB farm range witch contracts carrying some quicker movement options along with them. This quick shipping window can offer growers prompt cash flow at historically high values and some are taking advantage of it. If you are looking to catch a cent or two more, throwing your product up on firm offer is not necessarily a bad idea. Bids have been fairly comfortable in their trading range, so if your target doesn’t trigger, then at least you have reassurance you didn’t leave money on the table and you can still sell at today’s posted values. New crop bids also come with little change this week. Current quoted values sit in the $0.34 – $0.35/lb FOB farm with contracts including an act of God. We’ve said it before, and we will say it again: This is a great program to get something locked in while taking the risk of market volatility and production shortages off your plate. Early movement + early cash flow + good price = Great farm management skills!

When looking at crop rotation for next year, large Kabuli chickpeas are one of the leaders in gross margin profit. Some analysts predict a 39% increase in acres compared to last year, going from 234K to 325K. This is still above the average on a 5-year high, with 19/20 crop year being 392K acres. Spot contract values in 2019/20 for a #2 large Kabuli were high teens to mid 20’s, while production contracts were being booked at $0.26-0.29/lb FOB farm with an AOG. Today, growers are booking spot #2 large Kabuli’s at $0.48-0.53/lb for old crop and $0.45/lb new crop with an AOG, both FOB farm. While, of course, global supply has a factor in value, it cannot be ignored that right now, in your back yard, chickpea values are strong despite heading into a potentially larger production year. Feed and pet food markets have not wavered from their values in weeks and while the demand is always there, it is not strong enough to push higher bids. Serious consideration should be taken with chickpea production contracts and how those pencils into your book. Call your agent for details.

Flax prices are down slightly again this week, which comes as no surprise at this point. We have been writing about the competition in flax pricing from the Black Sea region for several months now and the same story continues. It’s no shock that prices overseas are much cheaper than domestic values and that product continues to get sold into the Chinese and European markets. Market analysts expect Canadian flax acres to be down in 2023, which could help offset some of the expected larger carryover. If flax production in the US sees a decline in 2023 as well, we may see more demand from our neighbours to the south, which would be supportive for markets. Whether or not that happens is to be seen, but until then, flax prices will likely remain under pressure going into 2023/24. For those with flax in the bins, call our office as prices are ever changing; at time of writing, we are seeing $16.75/bu delivered.

There’s no way to put it lightly, the canola market looks like it has just gone ten rounds with Mike Tyson in his prime; futures have been on a steady decline all week. A large Australian rapeseed crop has been supplying major areas of the world while Canadian canola was considered expensive for a very long time. That, paired with what is expected to be a huge Brazilian soybean crop, is resulting in the perfect storm for our canola markets to fall off in a big way. At time of writing, May futures are at $754/MT, which is down roughly $60/MT in just one week. Local bids have slipped to around the $17.25-$17.50/bu mark delivered to plant, with basis levels remaining relatively unchanged. July futures are similar and sit at $751/MT representing a slight discount for movement into the summer. New crop bids have followed suit and have dropped down to around $16/bu delivered to plant. We’ll need to see the market stop the bleeding before we can assess the total damage and make plans moving forward.

A decision should be coming down from the WTO sometime in Mar or Apr regarding the China/Australia dispute over the barley tariff. More recently, the two sides have been communicating which is viewed as positive when it comes to relations. Whether terms are adhered to or not is another story depending on how the WTO comes down. The longer this stays unresolved, the longer Canadian barley markets reap the benefit. Bids in Saskatchewan range anywhere from $7.50 – $8.15/bu picked up on the farm with the latter quoted for product along the #1 highway near the SK/AB boarder. New crop values are also holding strength with bids ranging from $6.40 to $7.00/bu picked up in SK pending farm proximity to feedlots. Locking in a bit of new crop grabs you some cashflow at harvest time, along with a bit of bin space, and although these contracts do not include an act of God, conservative sales are still encouraged.

Soybean futures are facing headwinds this morning due to sluggish U.S. export pace, Brazil’s harvest, and concerns over Chinese purchases due to swine fever. Despite these issues, local bids are still holding up quite well at $18.50-$19.00/bu FOB farm, location dependent. Local dry bean bids in Mexico have shown a promising increase due to lower production. New crop dry bean contracts are available with price points ranging from 46¢/lb on higher volume more common classes to 70¢/lb on specific specialty classes. Canadian faba exports have been light, largely due to competitive export pressures from countries such as Australia. Australia is reporting their 3^rd largest faba crop in the last 10yrs. Feed quality fabas continue to be supported by pet food values. Local bids on export quality #2 faba’s are being quoted in the range of $13.50-$14.00/bu FOB farm, while feed quality values are near $10.00-$10.50/bu FOB farm, location dependent.

It’s anticipated that peas will see a 3^rd straight year of declining planted acres, with most of it incurred in the largest segment, yellow peas. Coupled with a decline in planted acres, is the anticipation that carryout will remain in single digit percentages. Exports are running behind what’s deemed to be “normal” and can largely be attributed to modest Chinese demand. Local yellow pea bids are in the range of $12.00-$12.50/bu FOB farm, location dependent this week. Green peas are hanging in there at $14.00/bu delivered or $13.50 FOB farm in many areas across SK and AB. New crop pea programs remain largely unattractive and this has kept trade to a minimum. Call your merchant for details on today’s new crop programs.

It’s difficult to find any positive news in oat markets these days. The supply is large, and the bids are few. Milling markets seem to be mostly filled up for the foreseeable future and options for emptying bins are pretty limited. Feed quality trades have slipped below $3.50/bu on farm in many areas of the province, with homes for oats as feedstock being limited. Worth noting in feed oat markets is the need for a good bushel weight as the discount for light oats is drastic, and the prices you see fall apart quickly if your product is underweight. New crop options are few and far between, but if you need to get something on the books, we suggest possibly putting some offers out in the $3.50/bu range FOB farm, which might be in the cards to facilitate trade.

Wheat has made gains to a one-week high after last week’s slippage. Spot prices for CWRS 12.5 pro and CWSWS delivered Saskatoon sit at $11.32/bu and $11.52/bu respectively. Spot durum bids continue to look similar to weeks past, at $12.25-12.50/bu delivered various plants in Sask, with new crop trading around $11.50/bu on DDC contracts. Spot feed wheat delivered to Lethbridge comes in between $11.17-11.30/bu. Watching the world markets, many are paying close attention as the Black Sea Grain Initiative between Ukraine and Russia is only a few days away from expiry. Moscow has proposed a 60-day renewal, but with that proposal being only half the duration of the last two terms of the agreement, Ukraine has countered and wants to see the deal extended for a full year. With the quickly approaching expiry, some importers like Saudi Arabia, Tunisia and Algeria have made a push for wheat imports with recent reports of tenders totaling 2MMT.

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.

Oats, oats, and more oats; that’s one way to describe the stockpile of carry-over we are seeing throughout the prairies for 2023 and at this point of time, likely pushing into 2024. To date, there has not been much change in old crop values with bids still in the $3.50/bu range, pushing into summertime movement. New crop programs remain elusive, but indications around $4.60/bu delivered into Manitoba have been floating around. As one can imagine, this hasn’t sparked much interest yet. If you you’re sitting on the fence wondering whether to store old crop oats or push them to market, at this point, it seems letting them go may be the better option as there is real uncertainty over how long this will drag out, and if we will see further value loss before the market shifts.

Mustard prices continue to fluctuate day to day and although there is buying interest, prices vary and are well under the $1.00/lb we were seeing a month ago. Best to call your Rayglen merchant for up-to-date FOB farm old crop bids on all types as quoting general values has become difficult. Markets are showing a spread between old and new crop, which will affect buying behaviour as we head into spring and move closer to planting and ultimately harvest. Mustard has seen a fair decline in new crop pricing as well, but the numbers still make sense to lock in some acres and protect yourself against further weakness. Even with softer new crop values, all three classes of mustard are showing returns with good gross margin rankings according to analysts. This year’s values have attracted acres for 2023 seeding and we suspect there will be a large increase in acres. Call our office for new crop pricing options.

Spot large Kabuli chickpea markets have been a little quieter as of late, with bids indicated around 50-51 cents/lb picked up on farm for #2 quality with decent sizing (i.e., max 10-20% 7mm). The ending stocks this year do not look overly burdensome, and market demand has been very hot and cold, so we would suggest waiting for another hot period and market accordingly. Acres look to increase on chickpeas this spring, up to 325,000, which, with a stronger yield, should keep pricing running about sideways for the most part. Any weather issues could keep stocks pretty tight going forward, but we always need to keep in mind that we are not the only players in the chickpea game – far from it. So, any possible local supply issues do not automatically correlate to stronger pricing. New crop opportunities are at strong levels with buyers quoting 45 cents/lb picked up on farm with act of God.

Pea markets have stabilized with not much change taking place over the past week. Green pea contracts are available at $13.50/bu FOB farm for #2 quality with the odd target trading closer to $14/bu. Higher bleached green pea bids are available at slightly discounted prices, so feel free to let us know what you have for quality, and we will find a home for your product. US green pea bids are still strong around $10.50/bu USD FOB farm and this has been buying waves of product for the last few weeks. Yellow pea bids range between $12.25-$12.50/bu FOB farm depending on your location for a #2 quality, again with the odd target trading higher. On the new crop side of pricing, green peas are indicated between $11.50-$12/bu FOB farm, while yellows are lagging behind at $10.50/bu FOB farm. Contracts for both are quoted for #2 grade and include a 10 bu/acre Act of God clause. The more niche maple pea market is trading at a premium to yellows with bids around $16.50-$17/bu FOB farm. We are encouraging offers on new crop maples in the $14/bu range FOB farm with an Act of God.

Lentil markets continue to show positive gains week over week, which is nice to see after a steady slide in previous months. Concerns of an acreage decrease in Canada may be helping prices, as well as a CDN $ that is struggling of late. Red lentil bids are up to 35-35.5 cents/lb delivered on #2 quality, while new crop bids with an AOG are quoted at 31.5 cents/lb delivered. Large green bids are showing the most improvement this week, with 53 cent/lb FOB farm offers triggering on #2 quality product in the bin. New crop bids are also rising to 46-48 cents/lb FOB farm with an AOG. We encourage taking a good look at new crop large green values and getting some signed up. There is a good chance many acres could switch over from reds due to the wide price gap we’re seeing. Small green lentils are holding steady at 48 cents/lb FOB farm for old crop #1 quality. New crop #1 small greens are trading at 42 cents/lb FOB farm with an AOG and have lower grade spreads built in. In the US, #1 US medium green lentils are trading as high as 35 cents/lb FOB farm for old crop and around 29-30 cents/lb FOB farm on #1 US quality new crop with an AOG.

The flax market is still relatively quiet on the pricing side of things, but $17.00/bu FOB did manage to buy some tonnes last week. Those sales, did however, put some pressure on buyers who are now quoting values as low as $16.50 delivered. One of our purchasers who exports to China provided Rayglen with some trade information over the last year. In 2022, China had demand for 600,000MT and estimated a need for 700,000MT in 2023. In 2022, Russia accounted for 70% of the flax imported into China, while Canada accounted for 4.9%. This put Canada into third place for countries exporting flax into China; keep in mind Canada was, at one time, number one. According to data for December 2022, Russia accounted for 74% of the imports and Canada fell to 1.1%, but it was still ranked as third. Russia has become a major player in the Chinese market for a couple reasons; 1. Limited markets to trade with, 2. a 300,000MT increase in production from the year before. These two reasons have Russia trading at a discount compared to Canadian pricing. Last week, Russia was trading flax into China at $535/MT US to $576/MT US depending on the shipping port. Canadian flax is priced at $655/MT US, which is only trading to high-end users.

Soybean values stay strong for another week. Talk about the Argentinian bean crop and adverse weather is helping keep values up. There have been reports their production went from an earlier estimated 41MMTS to 33MMT due to drought – that is down 25% from last year’s production. The Brazilian supply is expected to be a large crop, but it may not be enough to keep values stable. Bids remain unchanged from last week and are location dependent ranging from $16.75-$17.25/bu FOB farm. Faba beans have maintained tone for another week with #2 quality bids ranging of $13.00-$13.50/bu FOB farm and feed quality values are near $9.50-10.00/bu FOB farm. New crop values are still hard to put a pin in, so buyers are encouraging offers from the sell side.

Canaryseed markets have been fairly flat for the past few weeks, and although we’ve seen some sales into the spot market, overall trade has been fairly slow. Old crop values continue to be quoted around that $0.36-$0.38/lb FOB farm mark with some quicker shipment options still available. It is important to throw in your targets on spot canary at a level you’re comfortable with and see if we can get the trade done as demand still seems strong. New crop is trading in the $0.34 – $0.35/lb FOB farm range with buyers doing anywhere from 10 – 15 bushels to the acre under AOG. We really like new crop canary as sale option here at Rayglen, and if you are growing it, you should really pencil these numbers in. If you need seed, contact us as we may have the right lot you are looking for.

According to the Canadian Grain Commission, out of country barley exports are moving ahead of last year’s pace. Despite January seeing the smallest monthly export total since fall 2022, Canada still exported 131,000MT of barley, with China being its main buyer at over 100,000MT. Watching today’s markets, corn imports from the US continue to supply many feedlots, and barley prices continue to look similar to previous weeks. Current feed barley bids range from $9.00/bu delivered into Alberta, and $7.40-7.80/bu FOB farm in Sask, with the higher value being found in the SE Sask area. New crop feed barley continues to trade around $6.50/bu FOB farm on a DDC (no AOG). Malt barley bids range from $8.10-8.40/bu delivered AB/SK/MB on old crop, with new crop malt bids between $7.30-7.90/bu delivered, dependent on delivery time and option between an AOG or DDC.

The wheat market is trying to climb out of the hole that it dug itself into these last couple days with bids hovering around $11.25/bu delivered in central Sask. With acres on the rise both here and south of the border, new crop bids are staying steady drawing ire from other crops, i.e. lentils. There are growing concerns on the US winter wheat crop, and it is reported that just over 50% of Kansas crop was in poor to very poor condition; conversely, just over 15% is in good to excellent condition. This does not bode well for the start so far. Sliding over to feed wheat, bids continue to hover around that $10.25/bu range picked up on the farm give or take a quarter depending on freight costs, making it a nice alternative for some lower grade milling wheat. Switching gears over to durum, buyers continue to range around $12.50 – $13/bu delivered in, with 3 tenders on the loom. New crop values are a little lackluster right now and trade has been light.

Canola has been on an overall down tread since Feb 22^nd. That said, there have been market up days and coupled with attractive basis levels, producers have been able to sell targets at $19.00/bu delivered. Due to strong crush margins, domestic demand remains strong, allowing basis to absorb some overall softness in the futures. Canadian canola values continue to price in on the high end as it compares to other global veg oils. Significant Chinese demand is yet to surface which may weigh on carryout stocks. Futures have come off a bit over the past couple days with local bids now hovering in the $17.75-$18.50 picked up location dependent.

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.

Flax trades seem to have shown a little bit of life this week as some buyers have perked up interest and are actively starting to look for product. This is not to say we saw a big bump in bids, but some business at $17-$17.50/bu was a workable number for both buyers and sellers and got product on the books. Most traded for movement timelines in and around road ban periods, but some buyers are requesting movement into the summer months as nearby options are fairly locked up. It seems that some of this business has flax heading back east as interested bidders are predominantly active in Chinese markets. This could possibly indicate we are seeing the amount of product shipping from former USSR letting up. New crop did have some buyer interest that filled quickly at $18/bu on farm with act of God this week and although the program is full for the time being, we can stack offers in hopes more tonnage opens up. There has been limited interest in spot yellow flax around the low twenties per bushel if you need some bin space or cashflow, but new crop bids remain unreleased thus far.

Canaryseed markets continue along their unchanged path this week, still boasting some great sell values on both new and old crop. Unlike having to send the canary in to sniff out the mine, these canaryseed values are guaranteed a safe and smart decision to get some product hedged against possible downturn, on top of locking in early shipping windows and cashflow. Old crop values continue to trade around that $0.36-$0.38/lb FOB farm mark with some quicker shipment options available. New crop values are also still triggering in that $0.34 – $0.35/lb FOB farm range with buyers doing anywhere from 10 – 15 bushels to the acre under AOG. With recent snowfall throughout the prairies, and most hopeful that starting moisture will be adequate, getting some of this crop locked in seems like a power move.

It looks as though canola markets will roll into March and end February without much change from weeks past. Although we’ve seen fluctuation to daily futures, adjustments to basis levels have local spot bids averaging out in quite similar ranges each week. Current indications on old crop canola sit around that $18.00/bu mark, but for an accurate value, best bet is to call in and let us tailor a bid to your farm. New crop values on canola also remain at levels that one should strongly consider selling their first 10 – 20 bushels into, currently sitting at $16.50 – $17.00/bu FOB. These are strong indications and those types of bids, paired with the recently released Alberta and Saskatchewan crop insurance numbers, have us guessing it may be just the push those on the fence about seeding canola needed. As always if you are looking for a bit higher value, we encourage placing a firm offer to catch any potential spikes within the market.

Green peas have seen some buying demand over the last week with prices in the $13.50/bu FOB range. For those with bleached green peas in the bins, there is also demand and movement with discounts, so call in with specs or send us a sample for review. We also have buyer interest in US green peas around $10.50/bu FOB farm for low bleach. Yellow pea pricing sits around $12.50/bu picked up, give or take 25 cents depending on location. Historical pricing charts from analysts, show high returns in seven of the last nine years when selling in the first week of March so growers may want to keep a closer eye on pricing over the next week. We will have to see if this trend holds true. New crop green and yellow pea programs are slow to come out, but prices are indicated around $10.50/bu for yellows and $11.50-$12.00/bu for greens. Both are likely to contain an act of God clause. Call our office for details if you’re interested in making a sale. For those with maple peas still in the bins, prices are flat in the $16-$17.00/bu price range, picked up. If you are in need of any type of pea seed, reach out to your Rayglen merchant as we have some options available.

The wheat market is on the softer side and we are expected to see continued pull back over the next month. Record wheat sales out of the Black Sea region are a little surprising considering everything going on over there. With what looks like an increase in acres here and south of the border, we could see pricing continue to slide, barring any pre-planting weather concerns in Europe. That comes a bit down the road from now, but something to keep an eye on. A nice little price perk in central SK was seen today on #2 CWRS at 11.50/bu delivered in for Mar-Apr shipping. This is a strong spot bid compared to other pricing indications popping up around the $11.20’s/bu range. Flipping to feed, bids seem to be ranging around $10.25-10.75/bu picked up on the farm, making it quite comparable to some milling bids after factoring in some freight. Sliding over to durum, you can catch $12.50/bu picked up on the farm for #3 CWAD or better, within a couple hundred KM striking distance of Saskatoon, should you be looking for a home.

Canadian chickpea exports are at 91,500MTS for year to date with the bulk of the shipments going to Turkey and the US. This number is the highest it has been since 2000/01. While it feels like the market is quiet, things are happening in the background. Prices have not changed on average but we have seen opportunities arise where offers are hit, and a little bump is given for a set amount of volume, then shut off again. It has been said over and over that the value of North American chickpeas are not globally tradeable and with the US being a main destination for our export, it validates that reality. When speaking to a buyer this week they advised they had their first firm potential business for old crop in a month and the interest equated to $.45/lb FOB farm to the grower. New crop bids are at a lower spread to this and only a handful of buyers with pay $.45/lb +. With the speculated amount of acres going in, it’s hard to see how this price holds on. Chickpea dense growing areas are seeing good snow pack which will help to set up for a favourable spring. If chickpeas are going in the ground on your rotation, take a serious minute to pencil in what works for your books and give us a call with options.

The Argentine soybean crop has continued to face a well-documented drought that could result in losses of up to 10MMT of Argentine soybean production. Fortunately, countering those losses is the Brazilian soybean harvest that is predicted to provide a record-breaking crop of 153MMT. Brazil’s record crop will play a large role in North American soybeans’ export ability. Current spot prices for soybeans sit around $17.00-17.50/bu. December exports of Canadian faba beans amounted to less than 100MT, all of which were sent to the US. With Australian faba production estimates increasing and AU price decreasing, paired with an increase in UK seeded area and strong yields in the Baltic regions, Canadian fabas look to face heavy competition in exporting to Egypt for 2022/23. Fabas are seeing spot bids between $13.60/bu FOB and $14.35/bu delivered for export quality, while feed bids remain in the $10-10.50/bu FOB farm range. New crop contracts are available at $14.35/bu delivered Northern Sask on 10bu/acre with AOG.

Lentils continue to have positive gains. The Gulfood show seems to have had a positive impact on lentil markets, as all varieties have seen an increase in price. With speculation that lentil acres are going to decrease this year, buyers are offering some of the highest new crop pricing ever offered. Large green lentils old crop for a No. 2 has traded at 51 cents, with new crop bids as high 44 del with an Act of God for a 2 or better. Small green lentils old crop 47- 48 cents FOB farm for a No. 1 and new crop at 42 cents FOB farm with an Act of God, but higher offers are being looked at. Old crop medium green lentils are trading at 32-33 cents USD for No. 1 US, and new crop  are trading at 30 cents USD for a No. 1 US grade. Red lentils are trading as high as 34.5 del for a No. 2 old crop. New crop is trading as high as 31.5 for a No. 2 delivered. With a 14 cent spread between red lentils and green lentils, how many producers will consider shifting into green lentils over reds? Something to consider on the red lentils is that only the big three red buyers are interested at these levels. Smaller buyers are sitting on the sidelines.

The mustard market seems somewhat stable on the new crop front as we enter March. New crop prices have slipped to around $0.64-$0.68/lb on all types with yellow quoted the highest. But these have stabilized, it seems slightly, as we reach these levels. Despite softer values, we still think this is a good sign to lock in the first 10bpa under AOG. Spot bids continue to feel the downward pressure and some buyers have been reluctant to buy right now as needs are currently met. Current spot values from those still willing to purchase are quoted in the range of $0.90- $1.00/lb on all types of mustard, but we are seeing daily price fluctuations and volatility. Yellow and Oriental have the highest spot bids. We still have seed available for most varieties with delivery to your yard, but time is starting to run on delivery.

Oats once again remain very quiet. The same story persists. Supplies are heavy and buyers are filled up for the near future. Feed oats are still trading between $3.50-$3.75 FOB farm though and we have seen some sales occur at these levels. Perhaps it’s time to ask if we should be selling into this market and not wait for milling bids. Sometimes space can be an issue with oats, so if you have storage issues, shipping over the next couple of months can be arranged on this feed bid. With oat acres expected to be down, we should be able to work through our big supply, but this is obviously going to take time. Growers may need to carry oats in to the 2023/24 season before we see any significant demand and/or upward price movement. New crop bids remain largely elusive as well, but we have seen the odd bid around $5/bu DELIVERED to plant in MB. Those in extreme SE Sask may find themselves with a decent FOB farm bid based off this value – call your merchant with location and acreage for details.

A few weeks ago, we spoke on the possible mend of Australian-Chinese relations that had potential to re-open barley trade between the two parties. As trade relation meetings began the first week of February, we watched Australia ship a reported 15 vessels of coal and several thousand tonnes of cotton to China in anticipation they would be accepted. With reports of the cotton being received at the Qingdao port in recent days, it appears that relations could be improving. Despite Australian barley competing with Canadian product, old crop feed barley continues to see little change from prior weeks and trade around $8.90/bu delivered Lethbridge, with FOB farm values in Sask circling around $7.50/bu, but pushing as high as $7.80/bu in the right location. New crop feed barley delivered Lethbridge can be signed up today at around $7.80/bu, with Sask new crop values being traded around $6.50/bu FOB farm in the past few weeks. Malt barley appears to be trading between $8.00-8.50/bu delivered in AB/SK/MB. New crop malt barley contracts are few as of today, but we hear of additional opportunities presenting themselves by the end of the week. If considering planting malt this year, be sure to reach out to your merchant so we can start to watch for buyer bids and get your acres signed up under AOG or DDC.

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.

The wheat market has been sideways the past few weeks as the Minneapolis, Chicago, and Kansas boards all plugged along with little to no action. Last week, talk from the warfront didn’t stir things too much and we sit and wait to hear some new news to shake this market up. Locally, bids are still very close to last week, ranging from $11.30-11.70/bu for CWRS 12.5 pro, and $11.99-$12.06/bu for CWSWS, month and delivery dependent. Durum prices upped a little this week as we saw some $12.50/bu FOB farm bids pop up in select areas for spring movement on #2 or better quality product. Programs like that can come and go pretty quickly, but if you have some interest, we are stacking some offers at those levels hoping things perk up in other areas as well. The feed market prices still show highs of $10.50/bu FOB farm in the far SW Sask heading into feedlot alley and areas of freight disadvantage see bids closer to $10/bu FOB farm range.

To say the oat market is quiet would be an understatement. Week after week we continue to see no changes as supplies are heavy and buyers are filled up for the near future. Feed oats are still trading between $3.50-$3.75 FOB farm though and we start to wonder if growers should just take advantage of a sales opportunity rather than holding out for milling bids. Feed oat movement is generally quoted for shipping over the next couple of months, so it also offers some cashflow relatively soon. We have a new crop milling oat opportunity at $5/bu delivered into southern Manitoba for oats that are glyphosate free. With oat acres expected to be down, we should be able to work through our big supply over the next couple of years, but it may take some time for bids to bounce back up. Keep in touch with your merchant and/or set your targets for any openings that pop up as they tend to fill quickly.

Unchanged sentiment in chickpea markets this week. Buyers have no desire to take any long positions given the acreage forecasts and favorable growth conditions. On the flip, producers contemplate old crop selling options and dialogue for new crop bids.  Old crop values for #2 large Kabuli hover around $0.50/lb FOB farm with stronger opportunity popping up on hand to mouth trade. This might only add a penny to the pot, but buyers hit offers before coming to market with higher bids, so best to put those targets in. New crop is bid around $0.45/lb FOB farm with a typical 10 bu/acre act of God. Thus far, we have seen very few trades for new crop, but despite this, buyers hold steadfast and wait for bearish news in the market over the coming months. Feed and pet food markets are relatively quiet as well, but are always willing to buy. Check the bins, see what quality you have available, and call us to discuss options.

Flax pricing remains sideways this week as bids continue to hit our desk in the $17.00 – $17.50/bu delivered range with varying movement windows as exports continue to be on the quiet side. The Black Sea region is still shipping supplies into China and Europe at lower prices compared to Canadian values, and overseas markets should be content for the remainder of 2022/23, meaning Canadian flax prices could move lower yet. New crop pricing is very hit and miss, but there are some limited tonnage options available with values quoted around $18/bu FOB, including an act of God; call our office to discuss.  For those with yellow flax in the bins, $23.00/bu has gotten some attention over the last week, but again, freight and shipping window do play a factor. New crop yellow flax bids have yet to be released, but we suggest targeting desired sales values to see if we can find any traction.

Canaryseed exports maintain tone and buyers are still on the lookout for bushels. Spot market prices remain unchanged for the week at $0.36/lb FOB farm with relatively quick movement and offers are often trading slightly higher. New crop is still considered a great opportunity if you are wanting to try something new in the rotation or lock in some early values. With contracts having an act of God and bids sitting at $0.34-0.35/lb, it is something to be considered given most special crop markets have been on the decline for the last couple weeks. Weather and current conditions have all signs pointing to a decent spring and locking in the first 10 bu/acre with an act of God is encouraged in the canary market.

Very little change in the barley market again this week with prices continuing to hover around $7.25-$7.75/bu picked up on the farm across Saskatchewan, depending on location and movement timeline. A bit of a price perk is seen for those in central Sask who are looking for some quick movement, with $8.15/bu delivered plant being quoted. Those outside of the zone need not worry as we can provide FOB farm values tailored to your area, just call your merchant and they’ll be able to help you out. New crop bids continue to hold strong and with the amount of fresh snow received in southern Alberta this may be a great time to jump on some contracting opportunities, especially with talks between China and Australia in process. If they can figure out their differences and start working together again this would put a cap on Canadian values. Malt barley markets remain generally uninteresting with few bids being posted for new or old crop. That said, if you’re interested in making a sale, call in with variety, specs, and tonnage, and we’ll do our best to track down some values.

Canola’s upswing yesterday takes a different tone today with gains being negated on early morning canola charts. Strength came from cold temperatures and reports of frost hitting Argentina’s soybean crop and markets faced some speculation. The negative impact on soybeans spilled over into canola bolstering prices briefly, but the ship now seems to be making a course correction, so to speak, getting back to sideways trading. Those types of opportunities are definitely something to watch for down the road. Keep an eye out for pockets of upswings in this market to capitalize on any remaining stock in the bin. As of time of writing, spot canola is trading at $834.50/MT off March futures with new crop at $807/MT off Nov ’23 futures.

Old crop pea markets roll into the week virtually unchanged. Yellow peas are still quoted in the $12.00 – $12.25/bu FOB farm range, but tonnage needs don’t seem very deep at this time. Green pea bids are mostly flat as well, but we have seen small opportunities on good #2 quality, max 3% bleach pop up at $14.25/bu delivered plant in central Sask. If you’re looking for a FOB farm bid give us a shout and we can work some freight into the purchasing price. There still seems to be some interest in spot maples at values well over yellow and greens, but bids are variety specific, so call your merchant to discuss options. Switching over to the new crop side, we haven’t seen much change in these markets either. Production contracts on yellow peas are indicated around that $10.50/bu FOB farm mark with an act of God, while green pea pricing seems harder to track down. Buyer interest remains subdued for new crop greens, but some soft indications have been floated out around $11.75/bu. We suspect the best approach is submitting a firm offer to see if we can get any purchase interest. The same theme rings true for new crop maple peas; buyer interest is quiet and we suggest targeting your desired sale value. We are not seeing major fluctuations in bids like some of the other commodities and the values that are being posted for both new and old cop are still worth considering getting something sold into. With recent shots of snow throughout the southern prairies, growers may want to emphasize getting something on the books for the upcoming harvest.

The mustard market continues to be slammed as February comes to a close. That’s a rough way to put it, but that has been what’s happening over the last 2 to 3 weeks. Spot bids continue to feel the downward pressure and some buyers have moved to no bid as current needs have been met. Current spot values from those still willing to purchase are quoted in the range of $0.90- $1.00/lb on all types of mustard, but we are seeing daily price fluctuations. This is why it is important to talk to us about a strategy when trading mustard. Although values aren’t as high as a few months ago, we must remember that these bids are still incredibly strong historically and perhaps it is time to ask yourself…Why am I still holding mustard? Will it take years to see these prices again? For reference, new crop prices have slipped to around $0.64-$0.68/lb on all types with yellow quoted the highest. Despite softer values, we still think this is a good signing to lock in the first 10bpa under AOG. We still have seed available for most varieties with delivery to your yard.

Lentil markets are seeing a much-welcomed bump in demand and a little strength in pricing this week. Old crop large greens are back to trading around 49-50c cents/lb FOB farm in many locations with new crop at 42-43 cents/lb picked up, including an Act of God. Small green lentils are trading at 48 cents/lb FOB on old crop with new crop trading at 40 cents/lb with an Act of God. French green lentil old crop price remains at $1.05/lb range, while new crop is trading at 60 cents/lb with an Act of God. Producers may have trouble finding French green seed as there was limited supply this year, but we may have some options available if you’re interested in getting into this market. Old crop reds have gained a cent in the past week with bids at 32.5 to 33.5 cents/lb delivered plant. New crop small reds are trading on and off at 30 cents FOB with an act of God in certain locations where freight make sense; now is the time to get your targets up. We’ve had no real indication from the trade regarding the cause for in the increase in demand and bids, but it may have to do with a weaker dollar, new sales taking place at the Gulfood show, or lack of farmer selling causing buyers to pay up to secure product.

Soybean markets paused and cooled off a bit today as traders regroup and seek direction in upcoming USDA reports. The market is also seeking clarity regarding the severity and impact of the South American drought along with recent reports of frost in the Cordoba region of Argentina. Local market is in the range of $17.15-$17.65/bu FOB farm. Despite production concerns in key global bean producing countries, local spot bids are yet to respond in any measurable way. However, local dry bean bids in Mexico have shown promising increases. New crop dry bean contracts are available with price points ranging from 46¢/lb on higher volume more common classes to 70¢/lb on specific specialty classes. Canadian faba exports have been light, largely due to competitive export pressures from countries such as Australia. Feed quality fabas continue to be supported by pet food values. Local bids with export quality #2 faba sit in the range of $13.50-$14.00/bu FOB farm and feed quality values are near $10.00-$10.50/bu FOB farm location dependent.

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.

The canola market is down $12/MT compared to last week, currently sitting at $814/MT at time of writing. With cheaper offshore choices, the decision to sell comes down to risk management or cash flow at this point. Considering US soy oil will start to lose its market share once the South American soy crop starts makes its way to market, canola prices are still doing fairly well. New crop remains virtually unchanged with pricing from $787/MT – $791/MT. Taking some risk off the table and locking some conservative tonnage in at these values is not a bad play. All markets are volatile right now and the basic fundamentals of marketing need to be considered.

Barley continues into this week without much change in old or new crop markets. Current bids remain at values which should be considered especially when all other markets are so volatile. Although achieving an immediate shipping window is next to impossible, old crop feed barley is still capturing $7.25 – $8.00/bu FOB farm for movement in the next few months. New crop feed barley doesn’t come with much for firm bids, but buyers are indicating values around $6.00-$6.50/bu FOB farm on a DDC (no act of God). Freight costs remain one of the hardest struggles with barley, but purchasers are really paying attention to grower targets and have been triggering most that are in their, “wheelhouse,” so please don’t hesitate to throw something out! It’s hard to fathom that 4 – 5 years ago this number couldn’t even be obtained for malt barley let alone into a feed market with a lot less risk. Not to beat on a broken drum, but one cannot stress enough that at these values, a smart decision is to get something locked in.

Pea values haven’t seen quite the hit that other markets experienced over the past couple weeks, but they also haven’t taken a run. Bids, although relatively unchanged, do not seem to be deep anywhere you look. Old crop yellow peas continue to trade around that $12.00 – $12.25/bu FOB farm range with buyers uninterested in sharpening their pencils to purchase above those values. Good quality green peas float along that $13.00 – $13.25/bu FOB farm pricing while knocking off a quarter or two for quality with a bit higher bleach. The major push for maple peas seems to have backed off a slightly, but there remains some buyer interest for variety specific maples in the $16.00-$17.00/bu range. Onto the new crop side of things, yellow peas continue to show some pretty big pricing spreads depending on area and if you are looking to trade something containing an act of God today, firm bids sit around $10.50/bu. That said, grower targets have traded as high as $12/bu in eastern SK. For all the other classes of peas new crop contracts remain few and far between with a lack of firm programs available. If you have a sales target in mind, we suggest throwing a firm offer out to see what sticks. Even if it’s a bit over the market, we may see counter bids indicating desired value ranges.

The flax market has gone just about completely quiet over the past week. Canadian flax supply and asking values are just too much for today’s markets especially when factoring in cheaper sales from competing world supply. Domestic stocks are the second highest in the last 4 years and that paired with a demand number of approx. 335,000MT does not bode well considering 20/21 showed approx. 609,000MT of demand. The past 2 years most of Canada’s exports went to US mills, but this year, that has also slipped due to better American production numbers. Meanwhile, China has been able to procure cheaper product from Russia and Kazakhstan also causing the decrease in demand. At $17.00- 17.50/bushel on old crop most producers seem to be willing to hold for better pricing, which may take until late next year. What might make this market more attractive? Reduced acres in Canada, a crop failure in Black Sea region, or more demand from other countries is our speculation, but most likely there needs to be a combination of those factors. No matter what happens, this market is going to take some time to fix.

Wheat futures saw a fall from recent highs this week as concerns of another Russian offensive into the Ukraine materializes. With threats to Ukraine’s wheat planting area, paired with the Black Sea Grain Initiative needing renewal mid-March, production and export concerns out of the Black Sea corridor are coming to light. Locally, bids range from $11.30-11.70/bu for CWRS 12.5 pro and $11.99-$12.06/bu for CWSWS, month and delivery dependent. Durum prices sit between $12-12.50/bu delivered various plants in Saskatchewan, with new crop durum prices seeing $11.00-11.50/bu delivered on DDC’s. As we head into spring with dry conditions globally, Canada and other durum growing areas will turn their focus to the weather. Major durum growers/importers such as Morocco, Tunisia, and Algeria are experiencing some of the driest conditions in 30 years, causing concern for this year’s crop. Feed wheat prices sit around $10.35/bu for red wheat, and $10.00/bu for white, delivered into Alberta and Sask for Feb-Mar. DDC and AOG contracts are available for 2023 new crop, with one bid including an AOG on up to 35bu/ac at $9.75-9.90 delivered in Sask for Sept-Nov movement.

Chickpea markets are quiet for another week and a phrase that has floated around for years rings true across almost all commodities: “high prices cure high prices.” While the floor for commodities will see a slight elevation from time to time, the ceiling cannot stay up. Chickpeas markets, over the last 2 years, have experienced tight supply, competitive trade markets with lower than N. American values, and now we are looking towards a solid supply for the next crop year. If production has a significant increase, the only way to stay on the global scale is to be more affordable. The fluctuations in current markets are due to buyers being in flat position and then finding opportunity that needs to be covered, hence the slight upticks we have seen. It is a commodity of opportunity right now. If you are planning it for next year’s rotation, start talking new crop values today. If you have it in the bin, set some targets to take advantage of said opportunities.

The mustard market has been going through some serious troubles in recent weeks with bids drastically softening. At first, the price decreases were mostly just affecting new crop bids as acres continued to get locked up, but in the last week or so we have seen some major losses in the spot market as well. Current spot bids are in the range of a buck a pound on all types of mustard, but the market is loose so that may not be the same case in a few hours. New crop prices have slipped to the 60’s in prices (as in cents/lb not the decade) and many buyers have just pulled bids for the time being to sit on the sidelines and see how this all plays out. The main culprits that the analysts out there point to on the price dropping are increased acres for 2023 and some talk of larger stocks. Sure, stocks are larger if you compare them to 2021, but are still historically tight for mustard at this point. Long story short is that basically the seller’s market has flipped to a buyer’s market on mustard, and like many other crops, needs some new news of weather issues or some other problem to straighten things up. Whether or not we get that news is up in the air.

Spot canaryseed has been trading in the $0.36/lb range FOB farm over the past couple weeks, with delivered to plant bids at $0.37-$0.38/lb. We have seen the slow erosion of spot prices in 2023 continue, but new crop bids appear to be at, what we feel are great values. Current 10bpa act of God contracts sit at $0.35/lb delivered to various plants in Saskatchewan and adjustments can be made for FOB farm values if desired. We see this as one of the better marketing options on the table right now as the AOG covers any production and/or quality risk at a historically great value. Exports remain steady on canary, yet spot price has slipped and like always, it poses the question of what the stocks in this province really are. If canaryseed looks to be in this year’s seeding plan, we strongly recommend reaching out to your merchants to lock in some acres. The new crop bid is subject to change at any time, so act now. We may have some seed available so please check with us if you need some.

Oats continue to kick stones on the sidelines wanting to, “play,” with the rest of the group, but are being relegated to the bench. Pricing remains quiet with minimal interest on the buy side. Feed oat prices are sitting around $3.50 – $3.75/bu picked up on the farm with movement in the next couple months. New crop bids are scant, with $5/bu delivered into Manitoba being thrown around for milling grade and glyphosate free. With double the stock in the bins carrying over into the next crop year, it will take nothing short of a miracle to see change in the market. As expected, oat acres will be down with plenty of product ready and willing to fill the spot when needed.

Some small changes to report in the lentils this week, but the overall picture of the market is stable. Large green lentils in the bin are trading at $0.49-$0.50/lb FOB farm for #2 quality. New crop large green contracts with an AOG are available at $0.43/lb delivered for #2 spec. As of today, those new crop contracts include early fall movement, but will get pushed out as positions get filled up. Old crop small greens are trading on offer at $0.48/lb FOB farm, with new crop trading at $0.40/lb FOB farm AOG included. These new crop values for green lentils are historically high and something worth taking a good look at. Old crop red lentils continue to trade at $0.31/lb FOB farm in the right freight areas with potential for slightly higher values if right next door to plant. Despite tighter domestic supplies of red lentils, Australia’s large crop is proving to have a long tail, suppressing local prices. Expectations are that this will continue to be the case for a significant period. If you need to get some reds moved, sooner may be better than later. New crop contracts are available around $0.28/lb FOB farm with an AOG.

The soybean market has paused its fixation on Argentinian production issues and is now refocused on harvest progression in Brazil. As per usual, Brazil’s soybean harvest has begun in the northern most productive states. Brazil’s harvest is projected to be approximately 17% complete at this point.  Local market is still in the range of $17.00-$17.50/bu FOB farm this week with limited trade taking place. Despite production concerns in key global bean producing countries, local spot bids are yet to respond in any measurable way. However, local dry bean bids in Mexico have shown promising increases. New crop dry bean contracts are available with price points ranging from 46¢/lb on higher volume more common classes to 70¢/lb on specific specialty classes. Canadian faba exports have been light, largely due to competitive export pressures from countries such as Australia. Feed quality fabas continue to be supported by pet food values. Local bids with export quality #2 faba bids being in the range of $13.50-$14.00/bu FOB farm and feed quality values are near $10.00-$10.50/bu FOB farm location dependent.

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.

Flax markets continue sideways with bids in the $16.50-$17.00/bu picked up range depending on area and movement timeline. Stocks remain heavy due to low export demand and prices are not expected to go higher anytime soon. So, options seem to be sell into today’s market, or hold it until next year and see if, and hope for, value improvement. The Black Sea region continues its strong export pace to China and Europe and will keep those regions well stocked throughout the rest of 2023. Canadian prices on flax are still not low enough to be competitive into the offshore markets. The lack of new crop bids available also concurs with the lack of demand. For those with yellow flax in the bins, call our office – while limited, there are options.

The oat report comes without much change in nearby or forward markets, and after StatsCan’s recent release suggesting carryover stocks up 136%, we don’t expect to see change for a while. Although it sounds like 2023 seeded acres will be down this year, carryover production from 2022 will likely keep stocks more than comfortable next year. Purchase demand remains lackluster, but there are some bids popping up around $3.50/bu for both milling and feed qualities. These opportunities do not appear deep and come with a bit of buyer convincing, so if you’re looking to make a sale, it may be beneficial to move sooner than later. For those who have decided to dig in their heels, we suggest keeping a keen eye on this market and being ready to make moves if/when small one-off opportunities pop up. A final thought: many producers are sitting with oats in grain bags and even though the values may not be what was expected, you may be ahead saving the time and effort moving product from bag to bin as this market doesn’t show any sign of a major positive price swing any time soon. New crop values remain virtually unchanged without much for posted pricing unless pushing into the mid 2024; call your merchant for details.

The pea market has been quiet this week with both buyers and sellers not overly active. Current spot markets would show some trade at $12 – $12.25/bu picked up on farm for #2 yellows, $13 to $13.25/bu picked up on farm for #2 green peas, and $16- $17.50/bu picked up on farm for #2 maple peas with buyers being particular on variety. New crop prices on peas are a little tough to find these days and value ranges are wide. For example, new crop yellow pea bids are quoted at $10.50/bu in some areas and $12/bu in others with an act of God. New crop green and maple markets have not fully formed yet, but we have had some targets at $12/bu picked up with act of God trade on the greens and $13- $14/bu trade on maples thus far. Pea acres are expected to slip again this year as issues of marketing, agronomics, carryover, and grower apathy all add to the pile of issues.

Spot canaryseed maintained a steady pace throughout the month of January, trading at $0.36/lb to $0.38/lb on farm. As the first week of February wraps up, we are seeing similar values with bids at $0.37/lb delivered prompt to various plants in Saskatchewan and $0.35/lb FOB farm for Feb/Mar movement. New crop bids continue to appear, with more buyers entering the market. We are seeing $0.35/lb delivered to various plants in Saskatchewan and growers can factor in approx. $0.01/lb for FOB movement. Most new crop contracts include an Act of God on 10bu/acre. We see new crop canary values at $0.35/lb with an Act of God as one of the stronger marketing options on the table right now. Looking at Canadian markets, Tuesday’s StatsCan report showed supplies at 95,000 tonnes as of Dec 31 – much lower than previous years. Exports continue to hold strong, with Mexico being the largest buyer and purchasing at record pace. Despite reports on low supplies and strong exports, canary bids have inched lower by a few cents since December, meaning supplies could be more comfortable than suggested. If canaryseed looks to be in this year’s seeding plan, we strongly recommend reaching out to one of your merchants to lock in some acres before values slip.

Chickpea market values are relatively unchanged from last week, but the availability of sellers seems more readily available. Discussion around Canadian production is still pushing for a big year regarding acres with similar assumptions globally. It is expected that we will see increased acres in Turkey, Russia, and Argentina, which will put obvious pressure on North American supply values. The next point of market direction is the looming Indian crop, which is speculated to have strong production and if true, India will be aggressive on their selling points to ensure movement. India is one of the hardest places to get information out of so this should be taken with a grain of salt. Gulf food in Dubai will take place on Feb 20^th which will shed some light on Indian offers in turn setting the bar for North American values. Good quality #2 Kabuli chickpeas are valued at $0.50/lb FOB farm for 60-day movement with new crop bids at showing quite a spread from $0.40-$0.45/lb with an AOG and freight sensitivity. Feed markets, as always, are on the hunt with values quoted around $0.30/lb FOB farm on a wide range of down grading factors. Desi markets are still popping up from time to time with similar values to Kabulis and worth a conversation if in the bin.

Barley prices did not see much change from last week. Bids for old crop feed barley sit between $7.50-7.75/bu FOB farm in Saskatchewan (SE corner included), with potential of $8.00/bu triggering the farther West you move. New crop pricing is an attractive option today, sitting around $6.50/bu, which is starting to grab some attention. Delivered bids on malt barley in Alberta range from $8.60-8.70/bu depending on movement, whereas Saskatchewan and Manitoba see delivered malt prices at $8.30-8.40/bu and $8.75-9.30/bu respectively. Act of God and DDC contracts are available on malt barley, with one buyer bidding $6.85 FOB farm for new crop Copeland with a 23bu/acre AOG. An important note on global markets – representatives from China and Australia met on February 6^th to discuss removing sanctions and tariffs on numerous Australian commodities, barley included. Experts believe relationships are improving with China’s Minister of Commerce, Wang Wentao, saying he was, “looking forward to professional, candid and practical exchanges of views.” With the potential for Australia’s barley to again become a source for Chinese imports, pressure could be back on Canadian barley – hence our view on signing new crop barley at $6.50 being a strong move today.

We continue to see a fairly big pullback in mustard prices over the past few days. Both old and new crop are under pressure, and we urge growers to talk to their merchant about sales sooner than later as prices can change very quickly in this environment. Unlike only a few short weeks ago, grower targets above market value have not been very successful and the prices indicated today are just that – indications. Spot values are quoted around $1.16/lb for yellow, $1.14/lb for brown, and $1.20/lb for cutlass oriental, with other varieties of oriental sitting around that $1.10/lb mark. New crop contracts are sitting at $0.70/lb for yellow, $0.65/lb for brown, and $0.70/lb for oriental. Growers sitting on the fence about selling new crop are encouraged to get something locked up now before values fall further. Call us for movement options as we have both quick and deferred shipping windows available. Seed is still available, but we have had some varieties sell out again this week, so we suggest if you have not secured your seed to give us a call; all sales include delivery to your yard.

Wheat has seen a friendly and welcomed bump from markets’ close yesterday. StatsCan numbers show a decrease of wheat stocks by just over 1-2MMT in AB/Saskatchewan from 2020, skipping 2021 as stocks will all have seen an increase from that year’s drought. USDA numbers have also come out, and on the global supply side of the USDA report, there was an increase of 2.5MMT production mainly coming from the Aussies with harvest coming to a close, and Russia. A big question mark still looms with US increase in planted acres, but with poor whether conditions what comes of it? Looking locally, wheat values into central Sask range around $11.50/bu delivered in on a #1 CWRS 13.5 protein during prime seeding months with a slip in price for June/July shipment. Soft white is catching some attention as well with $11.55-$11.75/bu delivered in quoted for March and April respectively.

While there’s been some ups and downs over the past week in the canola market, March futures are essentially unchanged from our last report. Last Wednesday, we recorded a $825/MT future at time of writing, and as of this moment, we sit at $826/MT. Expectations of a large Brazilian soy crop still looms heavily on our canola market and may be a good reason to sell some more canola to put your farm in what you consider to be a comfortable position. Export markets don’t seem to support prices in today’s range as we continue to rely on domestic crush to keep prices high. November futures also remain sideways from last week with bids working back to $17.50-$17.75/bu delivered in the fall, still a strong starting point on a small amount of expected production.

Harvest rain delays in Brazil and dry conditions in Argentina continue to be soybean market influencers. USDA took domestic soybean stocks higher, but reduced global stocks based reduced Argentinian production estimates. Local market is in the range of $17.00-$17.50/bu FOB farm. Despite production concerns in key global bean producing countries, local spot bids are yet to respond in any measurable way. New crop dry bean contracts are available with price points ranging from 46¢/lb on higher volume more common classes, to 70¢/lb on specific specialty classes. Canadian faba exports have been light, largely due to competitive export pressures from countries such as Australia. Feed quality fabas continue to be supported by pet food values. Local bids for export quality #2 faba bids are in the range of $13.50-$14.00/bu FOB farm and feed quality values are near $10.00-$10.50/bu FOB farm location dependent.

Lentil markets seem to have stabilized this week with not much change in pricing. Old crop large greens are still trading between $0.48 and $0.50/lb FOB farm depending on location and movement time frame. New crop large greens are trading between $0.42 and $0.43/lb FOB farm with an act of God. Small greens stay their course as well, still trading in the $0.47-$0.49 range, with new crop around $0.38-$0.40/lb. French greens are trading as high as $1.05/lb for old crop and new crop is filling fast at $0.60/lb with an AOG. Red lentil demand and values remain lackluster, but growers can likely lock in some product around $0.30-$0.31/lb FOB on old crop and $0.28-$0.29/lb on new crop. December stocks figures came out yesterday showing that lentil supply is roughly 400,000MT below the five-year average currently sitting at 1,439 MMT. Normally we ship between 1.0-1.4 MMT through the months of Dec -July and if this holds true, July ending stocks should be somewhere between 200,000 MT to 500,000 MT. this means supply maybe tighter than normal, but more product available from Australia will likely keep Canada from reaching those historical shipping numbers (1-1.4 MMT). It is assumed that these numbers will likely not have much effect as the market had a good idea of the Canadian stocks already.

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.

Pea markets push through the first month of 2023 without much swing up or down. Old crop yellow peas are still trading around $12.00/bu FOB farm for the most part, with sporadic bids popping up closer $12.50/bu from time to time. Green peas remain virtually unchanged as well, sitting around $13.00 – $13.50/bu FOB farm for #2 quality. Interest remains for higher bleached product, so give us a call for accurate bids in your area. Maple peas are currently boasting quite a spread in value with indications from $17.00 – $18.50/bu delivered plant all depending on area, timeframe of delivery, and variety. Switching over to new crop, we had luck trading yellow peas in Southeast SK at the $12.00/bu range with an act of God last week, but as we expected, those acres did not take long to fill. For now, the program is full, but we are working to try and secure more acres. Central and western Sask show values closer to $10.00/bu FOB w/ AOG which hasn’t sparked any seller interest. Green peas are currently indicated at a $12.00/bu, but again, seller uptake has been slow. Growers with a sales target in mind looking to secure new or old crop contracts are encouraged to use our offer system!

Canary prices are down from where they were a week ago with old crop at 37 cents/lb delivered and new crop quoted at 35 cents/lb delivered. Canary has had routine export business and prices are coming to a balance. Unless canary acres are lost to other crop options available in 2023, supplies could get heavy. If you are growing canary, then getting the first 10bu/acre on the books at these values pencils out well. Looking at the broader picture: millet prices in the US were stronger a couple months back, but have settled since settled and Argentine exports are expected to be modest for the rest of the year, which sets the stage for a potentially softer tone in canary markets.

Flax markets are anything but stable at this point, with the available buyer pool and bids being hit and miss day to day. With slow export pace this year, the upcoming StatsCan report is likely going to show a large number of stocks still left to be moved. The majority of flax shipments from Canada are destined for the US, with China still predominantly purchasing from the Black Sea region. Both China and Europe are set to have enough flax supplies coming from Kazakhstan for the rest of 2022/23 and this doesn’t include flax inventories from Russia. Canadian flax prices are still a premium compared to these overseas markets, so we may see Canadian values move lower yet, with the assumed based case scenario that the market will remain stale to flat.

The recent uptrend in soybean futures is based on continued heat stress concerns in Argentina and hopeful Chinese demand following their New Year. USDA is set to release soy crush stats today and if crush volumes are reported lighter than expected, it could be a wet blanket for soy futures. Local market is in the range of $17.00-$17.50/bu FOB farm. Overall North American dry bean production is up year over year with exceptions existing in specific classes of dry beans. Exports have lagged and inventories are thus a bit heavier. Production concerns in key dry bean producing countries may provide an opportunity to export and thus reduce current inventory. New crop dry bean contracts are available with price points ranging from 46¢/lb on larger more common classes to 70¢/lb on specific specialty classes. Aussie new crop faba exports lag last year’s pace, but is in line with historical pace. Feed quality fabas continue to be supported by pet food values. Local bids with export quality #2 faba bids being in the range of $13.50-$14.00/bu FOB farm and feed quality values are near $10.00-$10.50/bu FOB farm location dependent.

Spot barley trading was strong this past week, with the majority of contracts traded to the feed market. Prices have stayed relatively stable, but we did see some downward pressure as corn trains continue to show up in feedlot alley. We are being quoted $7.50-7.75/bu FOB farm on old crop feed barley for April-June shipping, but are consistently seeing values closer to the $8.00/bu mark. For those with the ability to deliver to feedlot alley, bids are quoted at $9.36/bu for March, and $9.47/bu April-June delivered feedlot. New crop bids from feed buyers are in the $6.25-6.50/bu range for deferred delivery contracts. These new crop bids cover a large area in Sask, including the SE corner, so reach out if you are looking for information on new crop planning. Looking at malt, we see Alberta bids in the $8.60/bu del Feb-Mar range, adding $0.10 if you push out to April-May. Sask malt bids sit lower at $8.30-8.40/bu, but have FOB movement options between Feb-May, while Manitoba bids vary on variety but sit at $8.75 for Synergy and 9.30/bu for Copeland. New crop malt contracts are starting to be released, with AOG production contracts and DDC’s available. Lastly, a note to keep in mind – the Canadian Malting Barley Technical Centre provides a recommended list for malting varieties for the 2023-24 season. The list provides an indication for selection and marketing potential, so don’t hesitate to call your merchant to discuss what varieties would be best for planting this year.

Slippery slope with chickpeas this week. India is gearing up for a chickpea harvest and their market values have seen a bit of a climb up from a valley. Sentiment is that it will not be another peak but more of a plateau, and will not have a trickle-down effect to global markets. Argentina has been growing their exports (7-8mm) over the last 2 years, but they are still falling short compared to an average crop year with typical production. A world food tender that was awarded some time back has been halted and Canadian chickpeas are sitting on farm waiting for movement. Seems this has put a pause on domestic purchasing and buyers are standoffish for booking new crop outside of freight circles close to facilities. What felt like a good start for the chickpea market 2 weeks ago has turned into another slumber. Old crop values for #2 Large Kabuli are quoted at $0.53-0.54/lb FOB farm and new crop with an AOG is $0.45/lb FOB farm. That being said, the bid sheet is not updated by the hour, so depending on the day, we have experienced a “no bid” situation. Now more than ever, offers come into play if selling chickpeas is your objective.

Lentil markets continue to soften this week with reds holding up a bit better than green lentils. It is predicted that reds will remain soft heading into spring as there are cheaper options available from other world markets. Green lentils are taking the biggest hit with values slipping due to lack of demand and likely the spread in value compared to reds being perceived as too large. Perception is that green lentil supply is tighter than the reds, therefore, the market may gain some strength when buyers need to fill their next sales. StatsCan will be releasing the December 31 stock estimates and it will be interesting to see if or how the markets react. On new crop, buyers are slowly starting to get some coverage on green and specialty lentils, while reds remain largely untraded. New crop pricing for green lentils is very attractive at 40-42 cents on large greens, 40 cents on small greens, and 60 cents on French greens.  These are great starting points at historical highs for small and French green lentils. Large green new crop values were slightly higher last year, but those numbers didn’t come out until there were drought issues in some parts of the province. With numbers at these levels, and still a 14-16 cent positive spread between large greens and reds, we suspect that some red lentil acres will be switched into large greens.

Overall, wheat markets have been weaker the past couple weeks with wheat and durum both taking a hit. The big news this week is mostly related to durum as a few big recent tenders have shown the durum market to be more of a buyer’s market at this point, suggesting the world stocks may be a bit larger than previously thought. Wheat prices (#1 CWRS) are still showing bids in the mid-$11/bu range ($11.40 to $11.70/bu depending on timeline) for a few areas of the province and fall pricing about a buck less delivered to the elevator. Feed prices of late hover around the $10/bu mark, plus or minus, depending on farm locations and the freight costs associated with the area.

Canola bleeds red this morning, down to under $825/MT for March at time of writing. Definitely up from the previous week when we were sitting sub $800/MT as speculators were adding on their net short position from the previous week. With a large soy crop on the loom in Brazil, could the next month be the high range trade zone for penciling in the last bit of canola on the farm? With a very large soy crop looking to hit the market, what props canola up? There is still a swing in pricing, west vs east Sask with bid spreads favouring the west by around a $1/bu more. New crop bids continue to hold their own with $17.50-$17.75/bu showing for early fall delivery.

New and old crop mustards are feeling some downward pressure this week. We are seeing some slippage in spot pricing for the first time in a long while. These values move quickly, so it is important to contact us for up-to-date bids as pricing can swing a couple of cents very quickly. Spot values today are quoted around $1.18/lb for yellow, $1.17/lb for brown, and $1.20/lb for oriental. New crop contracts are sitting at $0.76/lb for yellow, $0.68/lb for brown, and $0.74/lb for oriental. We still think acres will be up considerably compared to last year, so it will boil down to mother nature as to where pricing goes over the longer term. Call us for new crop movement options as quick and deferred shipping windows are available. We have been seeing some varieties of mustard seed sell out this week, so we suggest you call sooner than later if you have not secured your seed; all sales include delivery to your yard.

Nothing new has come out of the oats market this week as the large supply and aggressive selling from earlier in the crop year continues to limit marketing options today. As we stated last week, there could be some openings a bit later in the year once the buyers have a better understanding of what has been delivered, but for now they are content to sit on the sidelines and bring in what they’ve bought. FOB farm feed bids that we have been able to find are just under the $4/bu mark. New crop bids are also weakening and can be found around $4/bu with movement into spring of 2024. Be sure to let your merchant know what you have in the bin so we can move quick when bids pop up.

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.

The canaryseed market remains without much change this week, but many wonder if it is only a matter of time before we see adjustments. Old crop is trading around $0.37/lb FOB farm depending on area and timeframe of delivery, but demand does not appear to be deep at these values. We suspect once they get a bit more tonnage locked up values may soften further. Now onto the new crop side of things, there are still some $0.35/lb FOB farm act of God contracts available today and buyers are willing to lock in the first 10 – 15 bushels an acre on this program. This opportunity seems like a win this week and we suggest getting something on the books. Not only will you be locking in a great new crop value, but you’ll also get some early movement, early cash flow, and a sense of relief knowing you have the AOG should things go south during the growing season. The same thought rings true for new crop – once buyers lock in some acres and tonnage, we think a drop in price is inevitable.

Old and new crop mustard bookings continue to hold a steady pace throughout January. Spot trading has been historically strong, with values quoted at $1.27/lb for yellow, $1.23/lb for brown, and $1.20/lb for oriental this week. New crop contracts also continue to see strong pricing, with $0.80/lb for yellow, $0.70/lb for brown and $0.78/lb for oriental being bid. Despite historically strong prices, as farmers continue to commit new crop acres and sell old crop product, buyers have not shied away from pulling back their bids on a weekly, if not daily, basis. With some estimates as high as 600,000 acres for 2023 seeded area, even a slight increase to 575,000 acres and a normal yield could build the supplies to the highest they’ve been since 2004/05. With Canada’s average mustard usage at roughly 130,000 tonnes, the expected acres and normal yield could push these supplies to over 260,000 tonnes. The combination of high acreage and old crop carryover could result in heavy mustard supplies in Canada, so we encourage growers to take advantage of the strong pricing while it is still available. We have seen recent success on firm offers for old crop, so keep in mind this is an option for product that’s still in the bins. Lastly, a reminder that new crop contracts include an Act of God on 10bu/acre, and we have available seed with treatment options on all mustard types.

Wheat prices are down again this week with indications around $11.25/bu delivered on a #1 HRS, with CPS red just under $11.00/bu. US wheat exports are down 7% according to the USDA. Domestic supplies are tight; however, this is off set by a larger crop in Russia that has deeper discounts to the world market. Other record-breaking wheat crops include Brazil and Australia which has reduced US wheat sales into some overseas markets. Feed wheat prices are mostly sideways valued in the $10.00/bu picked up range depending on area and movement. Like all the other markets this week, durum prices are also sliding, whether justified or not. Call our office for the latest price out of your area.

Flax prices continue to search for the floor with values peeling back some more this week. Buyer bids sit around $17.50/bu delivered in central Sask for movement over the next couple months. With a good chunk still on farm, producers may be looking at putting a birthday candle on this harvested crop. Many producers are putting pen to paper figuring out this upcoming years’ acreage rotation and flax is not coming out smelling like a rose. Tough to pencil in a crop that’s projected at a loss at current pricing, and as such, the expectation is for acres to be down. Overseas Russia and Kazak crops continue to feed China, making Canadian product predominantly a domestic commodity. Back in 2014, the Black Sea accounted for 500,000MT in the market; this past year production nearly reached 2.5MMT. That’s a huge number and it doesn’t bode well for Canadian flax.

The canola market has pushed down through the $800/MT floor this week and now, at time of writing, trades around $795/MT on most trading months out through July. The futures market has basically zero carry from the March through to the July, so the only advantage to hold today through to the summer would be if the basis levels from your buyer make it worth your while. In that line of thinking, we do see a few buyers that have sharpened basis levels leading into the summer, but those mostly show a $5 to $15/MT advantage. So, it’s not a big gain, but maybe worth considering. The Chinese buying seems to be back up and rolling and stocks are not terribly deep, but the futures markets will, in large, lean on what the soybean market dictates. Thusly, we rely on world news on soybean supply and demand to provide external pressure, be it positive or negative.

Chickpea markets have been on a slide to start this week. Many buyers seem to be dropping their bid by 1-2 cents/lb after every purchase they make, confirming our, “fill and kill,” comments from last week. Current bids reflect 55 cents/lb FOB farm for #2 chickpeas with max 10% 7 mm sizing. This is a shallow market and likely continues to fall once a few loads get bought, so if you’re in need of moving a few chickpeas, now may be the time to pull the trigger. On the new crop side of things, contracts are still available for movement in the fall. Prices are around 45-46 cents/lb FOB farm for #2 chickpeas with an AOG on 10 bu/acre. Again, this is a volatile market, so be sure to touch base with your merchant to get current prices in your area.

Very little news in the oats market again this week, which has been the trend for a while. Many buyers have filled up their programs for this crop year, although there could be some small purchasing later in the year to fill in some holes. This will be small amounts and unlikely to move markets in any significant way. Indications for old crop continue to be around that $4/bushel mark for milling quality, but actual bids have been tough to come across. The market will have to chew through a significant supply before we see any price improvements. New crop oat bids are falling as well as producers are signing up to ensure movement. Bids are down to $4-$4.50/bu delivered for movement out into spring of 2024.

A bit of flurry over the last week as reports coming out of Australia indicate that their lentil crop is large and ready for export. Turkey has been reporting trades equivalent to $0.28/lb FOB farm in Canada on reds which is adding pressure to spot values. Bids have slipped across the board with #2 reds trading around $0.30-0.31/lb FOB farm depending on area and time of movement. Expect opportunistic trading to happen in the nearby with a slight pop to value, otherwise bids will remain subdued. New crop reds have also been on topic, but we’re not finding buyers and/or sellers actually willing to trigger anything. Old crop large green lentils have slipped a little trading around $0.50/lb FOB farm for a #2. Export markets have gone radio silent on purchasing, and domestic markets are gun-shy to take long positions with such a definitive spread between reds and greens that most believe should tighten up. Old crop small green lentils are still in demand around $0.50/lb FOB farm, but not as heavily as weeks past. Seems the boots are starting to fill, and interest is starting to fade. Both large and small green new crop bids are active at around $0.40/lb FOB farm with an AOG and Sept-December movement. If reds and greens need a smaller spread to entice trade, we could see these values shift down. If green lentils are in the rotation, it might not be a bad idea to lock in some acres.

Soybean futures started today’s trading session down due to rain in Argentina, subdued Chinese demand, and an expected big Brazilian crop. That said, a mid-session turnaround was staged predicated on an unknown purchase reported by the USDA. Local market is in the range of $16.75-$17.25/bu FOB farm. Overall, North American dry bean production is up year over year with exceptions existing in specific classes of dry beans. Exports have lagged and inventories are thus a bit heavier. Production concerns in key dry bean producing countries may provide an opportunity to export and thus reduce current inventory. New crop dry bean contracts are available with price points ranging from 46¢/lb on larger more common classes to 70¢/lb on specific specialty classes. Aussie new crop faba exports have lagged last year’s pace, but is in line with historical pace. Feed quality fabas continue to be supported by pet food values. Local bids with export quality #2 faba bids being in the range of $13.00-$13.50/bu FOB farm and feed quality values are near $10.00-$10.50/bu FOB farm location dependent.

Barley prices remain stable compared to other markets, but are starting to feel some downside pressure as well. There is still some movement options left for February-March shipping, but most buyers would rather see April through June. Trades this week have been as high as $8.00/bu for Swift Current area with freight playing a bigger role as you move east. New crop bids in southeast Sask are quoted as high as $6.75/bu for Sept-Oct movement on a deferred delivery contract. Malt prices seem to be in the $8.50/bu to $9.00/bu delivered range if you can find some willing to buy. Maltsters seem to have most of their supply needs meet, which in turn will keep prices from moving up. That seems to be influencing companies from releasing new crop pricing. If there is extra carry over, malting companies may continue to hold off on releasing new crop contracts as they don’t feel the need to encourage acres; hence the reason that we don’t have a lot of new crop pricing yet. That said, we do have one indication at $7.50/bu delivered plant with an AOG or $8.00/bu delivered plant on a deferred delivery contract (no act of God). If you wish to pursue a sale into this program, give your merchant a call.

Pea markets are sitting fairly flat this week. Green peas remain around $13.50/bushel FOB farm in most locations for max 3% bleach, but we are getting solid bids for peas with higher bleach percentages. Those with higher bleach product, please call with specs so we can accurately quote values. Yellow peas are trading around $12/bu FOB farm for the most part, but there may be small opportunities to trade values closer to $12.50 FOB in the right location and with some longer delivery windows. We have seen some strong new crop yellow pea programs in SE Sask/Manitoba this week as well, with bids at $12.00-12.50/bu FOB, dependent on movement period, including a 15bu/acre Act of God. Acres are limited, so if you have interest, call now. New crop green bids are quiet still, which is not uncommon for this time of year. Spot prices on maple peas sit between $17.00-19.00/bu delivered, location and variety dependent; FOB farm options are available, call with location. New crop maple programs remain few and far between and we suggest growers use firm targets to try and get contracts secured. Feed peas seem to have bids in the $11.50/bu FOB range today.

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.

Milling wheat values have fallen back with buyer bids in central Sask hovering around $11.40/bu delivered on #1 red spring. Across the southern half of the province, bids are a bit more perky with indications around $11.65/bu and maybe a hair more depending on movement timeline. It’s not all doom and gloom for Canadian wheat though as we may see an uptick once Russia slows their exports, and the EU runs into a smaller exportable surplus around typical Canadian seeding time. On top of these factors, we continue to monitor US red winter wheat weather concerns, which could swing markets. Acres are up, but how many acres are impacted is yet to be seen. So, fingers crossed this all correlates to a bump in local bids. Looking ahead, Canadian new crop red spring acres are set to increase, and new crop bids are garnering interest. Feed wheat bids sit around $10/bu FOB farm, give or take today depending on location.

Chickpea markets keep a firm tone over the last 2 weeks with some buyers unsure why and how we got here. Buyers that have bumped their bids have been very firm on their values; where an offer in other commodities can often prompt a bit of a higher price, the same cannot be said in chickpeas today. Markets have been trading #2 large Kabulis around $0.59-$0.60/lb FOB farm for Feb-April type shipping. Sentiment feels very, “fill and kill,” as the interest is not widespread. New crop values are also something to consider with some buyers at $0.46-$0.48/lb FOB farm with an AOG. Crop rotation and disease have most believing acres will go up in the coming year, so pricing early might be something to consider. If you have bins with product in them, it can’t hurt to get a germ/disease test to see if selling for seed is an option.

Looking at today’s pea markets, yellows are trading at $12.50-13.00/bu delivered plant while greens sit around $13.50 FOB with some strong location dependent bids at $15.00/bu delivered in Sask and $14.00/bu FOB in Alberta for max 3% bleach. We have seen some strong new crop yellow pea programs in SE Sask/Manitoba this week with bids at $12.00-12.50/bu FOB, dependent on movement period with a 15bu/acre Act of God. New crop green bids are quiet, but we do see some limited interest in blocky types – please contact your merchant for details. Spot prices on maple peas sit between $17.00-19.00/bu delivered, location and variety dependent; FOB farm options are available, so call with location. New crop maple programs remain few and far between and we suggest growers use firm targets to try and capture a sale at this point. Lastly, feed peas see bids in the $11.50/bu FOB range today. Looking at both Canadian and world markets, we expect domestic pea acreage to rise to 3.5 million acres, as poor growing conditions limited pea planting in 2022. The planting of India’s rabi crop is ongoing with favourable moisture conditions so far – January will be a critical window for crop development. Finally, China has begun to reopen, and soymeal prices have risen, which creates an opportunity for Chinese feeders to purchase Canadian peas as long as values remain at a discount to soymeal and corn.

Spot market mustard pricing remains very strong, but new crop bids continue to see slippage this week. Buyers indicate they are getting full on new crop bookings, and this is translating into price pressure. Current new crop values are as follows: Yellow is sitting in the $0.80/lb range, brown is down in the $0.70/lb range, and oriental is quoted around $0.83/lb. These new crop prices are subject to change quickly, so please check with us sooner than later. All new crop contracts still carry a 10bu/ac act of God and are quoted as FOB farm. Spot values on all types of mustard sit between $1.20-$1.30/lb FOB farm this week for February to March movement. Growers may see a bit higher value if willing to push movement out and ship March/ April timeline. It is still very important you discuss firm offers with your merchant on product in the bin as we continue to have success with this marketing tool. Selling some mustard into these historically high markets seems to be a solid strategy. Planting seed on all types is still available, including delivery to your farm and treatment options. Sell outs will start occurring, so please let us know if you are looking.

Weak exports of Canadian flax warrant a price decline this week to $17.50/bu range picked up for a Feb/March timeframe. It was no surprise that during flax meetings at the Crop Production show last week, acres were estimated to decrease in 2023. Lower prices and competition from other commodities have growers looking in other directions and even with the decline in acres, there is still expected to be some carry-over. The US has been the dominant buyer of flax over the last year as our values into China and Europe remain uncompetitive. The flax market has no indications that prices will strengthen, so those with flax in the bins, consider pricing some out before we values slip further. New crop bids are not available yet, but we think growers should start throwing out their targets. Russia and Kazakhstan haven’t reported what their acres will look like for 2023 but suspect Canadian prices will once again have some competition.

Barley markets move into early 2023 without much change to value or demand that we saw ending 2022. Old crop feed barley remains a topic of discussion and growers are still catching that $7.50 – $8.00/bu FOB farm range throughout Saskatchewan. The further west and closer to feedlot alley you are, the higher the values will be. Delivery windows are still generally attractive, with some buyers starting to push March/April timeframes for a small carry in value. New crop feed contracts remain slow to hit our desk, but buyers seem to be indicating values in the $6.00 – $6.50/bu FOB farm range with earlier movement. We encourage getting a certain percentage on the books with these numbers – not only will this start cash flow, but also clear out some bin space. On the malt side of things, old crop purchasing continues lackluster at best. Maltsters are still poking around to buy some product, but not willing to reach out of their comfort zone to get it. New crop malt bids remain quiet as well, but we have seen some interest from the odd purchaser, please talk to your merchant for details.

Red lentil markets have softened over the last week with prices dropping to as low as 31 cents/lb delivered. There are a few buyers still purchasing small chunks at 33 cents delivered, but those opportunities are few and far between and we suggest growers take advantage while they can. Reds are feeling all kinds of outside pressure: Australian crop is now hitting the market, the Indian crop looks to be in good condition, and values are starting to soften overseas. These factors together make for a nearly perfect storm of price correction domestically and according to one buyer, reds destined for Pakistan already equate to low 30’s in the Canadian pocket. We believe prices will likely remain soft or drop further as we progress into the year and growers should make some sales now if they are under sold. There are a few new crop bids available at this time, but those that are out indicate values around 26-28 cents/lb with an act of God. We are not sure these numbers get much traction when initially looked at, but once you start comparing them to other crop options, they still pencil out at a decent return. Green lentils seem to be telling a different story as prices remain strong for all three varieties. Old crop prices remain in the 50-cent range or higher for both small greens and large greens, while medium greens hover in the 47-48 cent range. French green lentils still trade as high as $1.05/lb and beluga lentils as high 65 cents/lb. New crop green lentils are trading at 40 cents for both small and large varieties with an Act of God, which is getting some attention from growers.

Oat markets remain quiet for another week, which doesn’t come as a much of a surprise anymore. When searching for bid’s we continue to look under every rock and in every nook and cranny as this market is virtually full, and buyers are content to sit on their hands. When you are able to find a bidder, values seem to be quoted around $4.00/bu range for milling quality – not much different than feed.  The oat market is sitting a huge supply and it is going take some time work through it so, until then, prices will remain soft. There were some new crop programs posed last week with options to sign $4.50-$5.00/bu delivered plant in Eastern SK. The next few months are likely going to be tough slugging for oats, but if you need to find a home, let us know and we’ll track down some options.

Improved weather forecasts for Argentina have weighed on the market. Couple that with a larger Brazilian soybean crop, and headwinds have begun to push the market back down after a solid surge for the past week. Local market is in the range of $17.00-$17.50/bu FOB farm. Canadian dry bean production is in line with historical trendline levels; the reduction in planted acres was offset by better yields. South American dry bean markets are offering a glimmer of price appreciation. The Aussie faba growing zones have encountered more than normal annual precipitation. This, in turn, has led to a 30% reduction in forecasted volume and potential quality concerns. Feed quality fabas continue to be supported by pet food values. Local bids with export quality #2 faba bids being in the range of $13.00-$13.50/bu FOB farm and feed quality values are near $10.00-$10.50/bu FOB farm location dependent.

Producer canola deliveries eased up over the last week, but with that said, deliveries to date are 11% above last year’s at this point. It is forecasted that exports will remain strong into China, Mexico, and Japan. Australia is reporting logistics problems due to the large volumes harvested. ABARES is reporting that the Aussie canola crop is at 7.3 million MT, 4% above last year’s record crop. These Aussie logistics issues will likely drive canola importers back to Canada to satisfy some of their needs. Local bids are in the range of $18.00-$18.50 bu picked up.

The canary market has not seen much action in the past few weeks as spot purchases are very hand to mouth, and sellers are lack luster at pushing tonnage up right now. Current prices are 38-39 cents a pound on sound quality product for picked up on farm bids, with the range depending on where your product is located. There has been some interest in new crop acres, and we’ve been locking in at 35-36 cents/lb picked up on farm depending on area. This new crop contract has an act of God clause covering quality and quantity for the first 10 bushels/acre, so it’s a decent option versus deferred delivery contracts that might leave you holding the bag if the worst case happens, and you get wiped out by hail, or something else last minute.

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.