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Rayglen Market Comments – September 22, 2021

The market for mustard continues to improve, especially on yellow. Yellow mustard is now trading in record type territory at the 75-cent/lb range. Brown is sitting at 65 cents and oriental is indicated up to 50 cents, all based on #1 quality and picked up on farm. It is important to talk to your merchant as higher offers will likely be looked at. In this environment, most offers are being considered if the time frame is reasonable. New crop contracts have started to appear. Please feel free to talk to a merchant about opportunities at very high values already with an act of God. We have competitively priced certified seed available as well, which includes delivery to your farm. It is certainly best to start with certified seed to avoid any unnecessary grade or quality issues.

The barley market remains rather strong this week, with bids sitting anywhere from $7.25 – $8.00/bu FOB farm for feed. As always, these values are area dependant with freight playing the biggest role in determining where the firm bid shakes out. Every week this report is released, we edge closer to corn being brought up from the US at cheaper values, which will inevitably affect the high feed barley price. The window to lock in these historical bids is still there but closing fast, so growers may want to consider makings sales short term. We suspect that given the growing conditions through-out the Prairies this year, many uncontacted malt varieties are struggling to make grade, ultimately adding more tonnes to the feed market. Recent rumblings suggest that growers with malt quality can catch somewhere in the range of $9.00/bu, but actual trading remains quiet to this date. Feed barley tends to carry a shorter delivery window than malt as buyers attempt to just hold themselves over until corn arrives in Canada.

As expected, StatsCan decreased its pea yield estimate, now reporting a 39% decline from last year. The USDA also decreased their estimate, down 44% from last year, which is why we were seeing such strong US values. Canadian peas were also being moved south, but it is looking like that immediate demand has been met as US yellow pea bids pulled off their highs. Current local yellow pea bids are indicated at $16.00/bu picked up, with potential protein premiums if you are in Southeast Sask. Green peas are priced at 16.00/bu picked up as well, while maple peas are down a touch to $19.00/bu. Finding seed might be the next struggle experienced this year, but we will have a supply of certified seed if you are in need.

While canola trade remained sideways for another week the November futures are slightly up at time of writing to $866.80/MT. Local values seem to find the most strength in the Dec./Jan. shipping window with bids hovering around $19.66/bu today. Weather has been cooperative for a late harvest but a need for rain is apparent. Subsoil moisture is severely lacking and concern for Spring is already growing. Early statistics out of the US and Canada both indicate canola production down 40% from last year despite an increase in seeded acres. This is based on StatsCan number release last week and the USDA will be releasing their crop production number on Oct. 12th.

The oat market continues a strong and steady path with bids consistently on the rise since the start of harvest. Recent pricing has been quoted over $5.50/bu picked up in many cases with delivered to plant bids hovering around $6.50-$7.00/bu in Manitoba. Recently, deferred shipment has been capturing the highest values with buyers looking to secure product into the new year. The feed oat market remains strong as well, trading around the $5.00/bu range for good quality feed. Discounts will likely apply for lighter and higher moisture oats, so make sure to have your specs on hand so we can market your grain effectively. Strong values like this are tough to ignore and it might not be a bad idea to take some risk off the table and make some incremental sales. Call your merchant for a bid catered to your farm.

The Canary seed market has backed off from the highs of 58 cents per pound picked up on farm for movement out into the early part of 2022. Current price indications show bids slumped a little to the 55-56 cent range FOB farm with some buyers pushing all movement into 2022.  With Canary yields coming in around half of what they did last year, the market is tight. Based on very high prices and lack of supply Canary does sit on a precarious spot as the birdseed market will likely be forced to rework their mix and use replacement commodities in their product. That said, for those with Canary that haven’t made a move yet, it may be a good plan to take some risk off your plate at current levels. Can you really go wrong saying you sold Canary at 55 cents/lb? These are the kinds of values the old timers talk about from way back!

Flax prices remain strong again this week with product trading at $37.00-$38.00/bu picked up on farm. Opportunities exist for slightly higher pricing when delivery windows are pushed out to March 2022, so feel free to discuss this option with your merchant. Will these prices hold? That is the main question among the masses. We have seen push back in other commodities and flax too will have its highs, but right now flax prices are in the acceleration phase. Supply issues globally weigh on everyone’s mind, as Kazakhstan has concerns about their flax yields. As flax harvest picks up pace and more farmer selling takes place, the market will eventually sort out where the price rally runs into resistance. End users of flax will have to sort out which demand will get rationed as there is no real substitution for linseed oil. If you need flax seed for next year, it’s time to start thinking about making purchases as supply will be tight. Contact Rayglen for seed options!

The chickpea market has maintained a similar trading range over the past few weeks with no major changes showing up. Bids have reached as high as $0.61/lb FOB farm for large sized kabuli chickpeas with the bottom end sitting right around $0.58/lb FOB, mostly location dependent. Contracts typically require maximum 10% 7mm sizing, with discounts to apply on product over 10% 7mm. We strongly recommend knowing the sizing of your chickpeas before marketing as to avoid any surprises and because many chickpeas have been coming off small compared to past years. We do have options to market all sizes and grades of chickpeas so be sure to get us your specs and/or samples so we can get to work on finding homes for your product.

Chicago soybean futures are up on rumors of China booking another large sale. Confirmation is expected to occur later this morning. A stronger US dollar, South American production prospects, and uncertainty about loading paces at the U.S. Gulf continue to limit gains in the soy complex. Local bids have been as high as $17.50 FOB farm, but active bids remain sparse. Canadian faba bean production is forecast to be down sharply and at one of the lowest produced volumes in recent years. Anecdotal reports have indicated varying quality in the Canadian crop, which is actually fairly standard. Feed quality bids are near $11/bu FOB farm, while #2 export quality typically brings a $2/bu plus premium. Export values seem to be getting established. Dry bean prices continue to see strength as final harvest numbers remain speculative. Water cooler talk is expecting a year over year production decline in the US and Canada. Globally that may be muted by the positive prospects of the Mexican and Argentinian crops.

There was not much change in the wheat market since this time last week. Feed values continue to range between $9.50 – $10.00/bu picked up on the farm. Looking at the milling sector, there is buyer interest on some higher protein (14%+) #2 CWRS with bids at $11.20/bu delivered in Central Sask. for end of the year movement. If you have some higher or lower protein product let us know as offers are a great way to show buyers what you’re working with. Cash prices continue to be supported due to tighter stock margins, but we’ll have to keep watch on Australia’s and Argentina’s crops, although they are some distance from harvest yet, the outlook is positive. Moving on to durum, the market pricing remains steady at $18/bu delivered in for a #2ob CWAD with movement this year both in SW and SE Sask. As well, there is buyer interest in lower grade product so if you have grading specs let your merchant know as they might be able to work on some blending packages.

Most lentil markets remain quiet again this week with little selling taking place and most buyers content not changing markets. India came out early this week and imposed a 33% tariff on American red lentils, so far, the only country affected. With India adding this tariff it now throws some more uncertainty into the markets. Red lentils continue to slip in price this week with 49cents/lb delivered plant seeming to be the high. Keep in mind some buyers are posting bids as low at 46 cents FOB farm. Large greens are still trading at the 62-63 cents/lb FOB far though, with small greens bid at 59-60 cents/lb FOB farm. Buyers are also still looking for offers on Belugas and French Greens and some record pricing. Call to discuss these niche crops!

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.

Rayglen Market Comments – September 15, 2021

Last year’s average Canary seed yield was pegged at roughly 29bu/ac across the Prairies. This year, estimates range from 14.5-18bu/ac, which is virtually half of the year prior. With this information, it is really no surprise that values are reaching record levels. Markets have been bullish since the start of harvest and for now, seem to be holding steady as we move into mid-September. Based on recent buyer indications, growers can secure bids in the $0.58/lb range picked up on the farm; this is up 3 cents from last week. If you are looking to squeeze a bit more out of your product, it is not a bad idea to throw up a firm target. Although we can’t guarantee a trade, this is a good tool to make sure you’re not leaving money on the table. How high will Canary seed go? It is very uncertain at this point, but we suspect there comes a time where it is viewed as overpriced. Making small sales along the way to hedge against the downside is never a bad play, especially at record price levels.

The mustard market continues to move up as buyers look for product. Yellow mustard is priced at 70 cents/lb, brown up to 65 cents and oriental indicated up to 50 cents/lb, all based on #1 quality and picked up on farm. These are historically huge prices and if you have any mustard left in your bins, we recommend talking to your merchant on sales options. If, by chance, you’re not quite pleased with these numbers, we highly suggest throwing firm targets out to try and push these values higher. In this environment, most offers are being considered. Moving on to future sales, new crop indications have started to pop up. Buyers are looking to next year already and strong new crop values will be available. Although it is early, feel free to inquire on possible options with your merchant. Also, just like every year, we have competitively priced certified seed available which includes delivery to your farm. Mustard is finicky when it comes to grade, so cleaning up your own seed isn’t always the best play. Moving product in your bins at today’s high prices and starting with new certified seed is a smart play.

The flax market remains interesting to say the least. Historical pricing continues to be pushed into the market with trades taking place anywhere from $34.00 – $37.00/bu FOB farm pending delivery window and location. Although there is lots of flax still standing, if you’re lucky enough to have some off already we highly suggest making sales into these markets. Not necessarily saying you need to sell everything, but moving a percent now is a very wise decision. With worldwide tonnage of flax expected to be down these numbers do seem to make sense at the moment, but sustainability remains a real question. At the end of the day the end user must be able to pay these prices and the question remains: at what point do we start to rock the boat? Offers and targets are getting hard looks as well, so if you’re seeking a bit more call in and place an offer. Should the market start to find itself, we aren’t sure if these (for lack of a better term) crazy prices will stick around.

The pea market has taken a bit of a breather over the past week as some of the highs seem to be off the table for the time being. Bids on #2 yellows range from $14/bu to $16/bu picked up on farm depending on a few factors such as: October movement versus February and whether or not they were sprayed with glyphosate. Green peas bids on #2 quality are seeing prices from $15 to $16/bu FOB as of late. Maple pea bids are down in to the $18 -$19/bu range after some trades at $20/bu picked up on farm in recent weeks. It’s tough to say what these markets are going to do, but the initial price run up seemed to fill some sales, cover some short positions, and has applied some “harvest pressure” to the position. We still are catching trades at the high end of the bid ranges this week so there are still buyers at the table for those that want to generate some cashflow or take risk off the table.

Canola saw a big drop last week to $852.70/MT which is the lowest since June. Despite the value recovering, the last 7 days of trade has mostly been sideways. Today the November futures are at $879/MT. The bullish feel in the market is still present but today’s levels are still very tradeable. StatsCan reported a production number of 12.79mil tonnes for this year’s production. All of this information indicates a stronger market for the coming trading months, but we are in a strange year where anything can happen. The bids today should not be ignored if the bins are full.

Barley markets are sideways from last week with the anticipation of corn moving up having the biggest impact on pricing. Bids this week range anywhere from$7.25 -$8.00/bu picked up, freight and delivery timeframe dependant. Although unconfirmed, it is largely assumed that corn imports from the US will have more of an impact on barley prices once actual shipping starts in Oct./Nov. For now, the prices on barley are still high enough to encourage corn imports and we are likely going to see prices hug each other until 2022 crop becomes available. For those with barley available, make sure you know your test weight and moisture as any later crop may have some quality issues that warrant discounts at destination. The malt market has not been overly aggressive, but some stronger indications have popped up, still below the $9.00/bu mark.

The chickpea market has seemingly slowed down this week after recent jumps had brought bids over 60 cents/lb. Canadian chickpeas are at a small price premium to their US counterparts and look to be following a break in higher prices that the US market has shown. With a very small Western Canadian chickpea crop and a solid export program throughout the past year, a bounce back up into new highs for the year is still a possibility. Current bids are around 58 cents/lb FOB farm based on a #2 large sized Kabuli chickpea. These bids often have a maximum 10% 7 mm sizing restriction, with discounts on any amount of 7 mm above the 10%. Large chickpeas should be in high demand this year as the drought conditions have resulted in a lot of smaller sized seeds.

StatsCan numbers are in and it’s looking a little thin on wheat this year compared to last. This puts us on pace for the smallest crop since 2007. Where it sits now, total wheat production numbers are pegged at roughly 38% below last year’s harvest. As such, we’re seeing some pretty strong values. Feed wheat continues to trade around $9.25-10.00/bu FOB farm. As well, buyers are interested in #1 and #2 HRSW with a 11% or more protein. Having your grading sheet will definitely help in marketing as we’ve seen prices range from $10 – $10.50/bu depending on farm location and spec. Call you merchant for pricing opportunities in your area as there may be room to grow. Flipping over to durum, we have seen milling prices retract this last little bit coming in around that $18/bu FOB farm in SE with a price pull back in SW Sask. to $18/bu delivered, both for pushed out movement basis #2 CWAD. These values would be deemed a historically strong price on any other year but given the year we’re in and production pegged at roughly 3 million tonnes less than last year well… there is room to pull back up to previous values and possibly more if you are able to sit on your hands and hold out for a while.

The oat market continues to plug along with #2CW quality bid in the mid $5.00/bu range picked up at the yard with further out pricing showing a little more strength. Feed oats have seen some strong bids as well with trading taking place at $5.00/bu for high quality feed with the potential for slight discounts on weight and other specs. The oat market has not seen the downward trend like other markets so this may be the time to book a few loads.  Here are a few things to remember when marketing your oats to ensure you’re getting the best value. Have the following information ready: weight, moisture, sprout damage and variety. The more information given to your merchant, the quicker we can put a sale together. As with most commodities this year, the majority of oat trades taking place are based off farmer targets. As this market is so competitive right now, buyers posted bids are usually slightly lower than what they are willing to pay.

Lentil bids remain fairly flat this week. The 2021 lentil crop was lowered to 1.8 million tonnes by StatsCan on a yield estimate just over 900lbs per acre. We will see what happens as the days go by, but there was no initial knee jerk reaction to speak of. Red lentils remain trading between 47-49 cents/lb FOB farm. The 50 cent FOB mark was not attained this week in trading and that seems to be a big target for growers. Large green lentils are now bid between 60-63 cents/lb FOB farm, with a slight chance of 64 cents in the right area.  Small green lentils are also stable at 58-60 cents FOB farm. Buyers are also still aggressively looking for French green and Beluga lentils, so please call your merchant with offers.

Soybean futures are up largely based on veg. oil strength. Chinese buyers keep cautiously picking around the edges and making incremental purchases. That said, there were some large cancellations due to reductions in Gulf port fobbing capacity from hurricane Ida damage. US harvest is poised to move into full swing shortly. Local bids have been as high as $17.50 FOB farm, but active bids remain sparse. At 86k MT, Canadian faba production is forecast to drop approximately 30%-40% below the 5-year average and last year’s production number. Due to reduced volume, faba export business is expected to shrink. Not to mention the competitive pressures that will come from an above average Aussie faba crop. Old crop fabas trading between $10.50-$11.00/bu FOB farm location dependent. Canadian dry bean production is forecast to be down 30% from last year but in line with the 10-year average. US dry bean production is also forecast to be lower this year and will be supportive for Canadian values.

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.


Rayglen Market Comments – September 8, 2021

Barley markets continue to fall back this week on the anticipation of corn moving up from the states. Current feed market is trading anywhere from $7.50 – $8.00/bu FOB farm depending on location and delivery time frame. We don’t suspect these numbers to stay relevant much longer though, as everyday grows closer to the import of corn into Canada. If you are sitting with some barley in the bin, now is the time to consider selling and hopefully still hit the some of the highs seen in the feed market. Firm offers are still being looked at but seem to be on a day-to-day basis. There has not been much for news surrounding the malt market recently, but we believe maltsters may just sit back for a little while longer to try and get a handle on this year’s availability. Anything that was left standing after the last few rains may be subject to quality issues, ultimately downgrading product from malt spec. As always, feel free to post a target to try and stir things up. Even though the price for feed has slowly started to decline over the last week, on farm values are still very aggressive.

The feed wheat market has slipped a bit over the past week with some buyers now showing indications around $9.00-$9.50/bu FOB farm. That said, we still have a hand full of purchasers supporting values around 10.00/bu FOB, pending location, for September/October movement. This gap in bids is concerning and leaves us wondering if those still buying at the top end are due for a negative price correction. It might be a good time to hedge your bets and get some feed wheat sold in anticipation of a softer market to come. Good quality milling wheat trades between $10.00 to $10.75/bu, delivered to plant, on a 13.5% protein min. spec. The durum market remains quite strong with product trading at $22.00/bu FOB farm in SE Saskatchewan and around $21.00/bu FOB as you move North. If these prices are not where you would like to sell at, we suggest using firm targets to try and capture your desired value.

A slower start after the long weekend in the pea market as both yellow and green peas soften. This suggests that buyers were able to get the coverage that they needed for the short term and now slow down the aggressive demand side. Yellow peas have moved down to an average bid of about $15/bu FOB, while buyers post bids around $16/bu for greens. Maple peas still seem to have some strength and $20/bu or slightly higher on offer may still be available. There may still be an opportunity for peas to find strength again, but for the immediate term, buyers seem to be stepping back. If you have a target price in mind, let your merchant know so they can stay relevant if/when markets perk back up. Although it is early, seed inquires have started and we will have supply available if you are looking to get into a new variety or need to replenish on farm stock.

It’s no surprise, but Chickpea markets maintain their tempo for another week. Harvest is currently underway with Sask Ag reporting 64% of the crop still standing in the field. Talk of smaller caliber is still present but we have yet to see an abundance of harvest samples roll into the office to confirm this. US buyers have been very aggressive in North American markets and have set the watermark thus far for marketing. US Bids range from $0.45-$0.50/lb USD or $0.58-$0.65/lb CAD. The Canadian market has seen trades at $0.60/lb, but grower hesitancy and bullish mindset has yet to open the floodgates. There is a lot of harvest left and time to determine what is actually in the field so “wait and see” is the general marketing strategy despite a few outliers.

Looking back over last year, just under 160,000 tonnes of canary was exported, similar to the previous year, but above the 5-year average of 153,000 tonnes. With low stock numbers and a projected smaller bushel amount, pricing should hold strong moving forward and we continue to see just that. Pricing has inched up another cent to settle in comfortably at $0.55/lb picked up on the farm. One possible stumbling block though could be the downward shift in millet pricing in the US. With canary prices going up, will birdseed packers rejig the bird feed “recipe” to minimize the reliance on canary?

Canola futures are exactly sideways from last week after an up and down week of trading. Canola oil is currently being seen as an expensive option compared to other oilseeds as soyoil has been taking some losses lately. Production concerns across western Canada as well as some weakness in the Canadian dollar are supporting current canola bids. November futures sit at $882/MT at time of writing, continuing to reflect the strong local prices we have been seeing over the past few months. Time will tell what Canada’s total production ends up at but keeping an eye out for strong local opportunities and taking advantage of them is good business at these price levels.

Lentil bids continue to lose traction this week, likely due to recent news of the Indian government deciding to remove import tariffs on product from the Black Sea region. With India looking to the Black Sea for lentils, this could imply they are seeking a cheaper supply. Short term, this could be viewed as bearish, but the upside to this news, for the long-term, may be that world supplies are tighter than thought. This could mean that India becomes a bigger importer of local supply down the line. Prices are weakening but remain strong for this time of year. Red lentils are still trading between 47-49 cents/lb FOB farm. Large green lentils are now bid between 60-63 cents/lb FOB farm, with a slight chance of targets triggering higher.  Small green lentils now trade at 58-60 cents FOB farm. Buyers are also still aggressively looking for French green and Beluga lentils and we urge growers to call and discuss their options.

Harvest reports continue to be all over the map regarding oats. Unsurprisingly, vast differences in yields pour in from brutally hit areas, to areas that caught some moisture. Overall, yield averages are expected to be down this year and with that, oats have been trading strong and sideways for the most part. Good #2 oats continue to trade in the mid $5 dollar range picked up in the yard or about $6 dollars per bushel delivered to plant. If movement gets stretched into the new year, we have seen the occasional bid perk up to $6.25 delivered range and we suggest growers continue to use firm targets to capture market highs. Even light and/or feed oats continue to secure strong values with indications around the $5 mark FOB farm. Call us with any available product on farm. Be sure to have weights and other specs on hand so we can effectively market your product and find you the best value.

Mustard prices remain at very strong levels through the past week. Recent bids on yellow have pushed up to 70 cents/lb in a few locations, brown varieties have buyers showing interest at 55 cents/lb picked up and the oriental market has pushed to around 40 cents without the usual concern on variety that we often see. These indications are based on #1 quality with varying delivery periods, but for the most part, moving quick. Latest projections put the provincial average for Sask. mustard just over 10bu/ac for the year, so supply is very tight with next to no carryover. We have a few buyers with interest in seeing firm targets over posted prices as long as they have a little time to work them into the overseas market. So, if you have a target price in mind, let your merchant know and we can put out a firm target to try and catch that premium. Obviously, no one’s bins are stocked full of mustard, but at these levels it’s not a terrible plan to make a move on some sales while the iron is hot.

Flax prices remain strong this week with prices pushing over $30/bu picked up. This year we can expect exports on flax to key destinations to be cut, as it will be no surprise that we have a lower-than-average supply. Reports in the Black Sea region also suggest that their level of exports will decline. There is no doubt these record high prices indicate there is concerns with the 2021 crop: not just in North America but also overseas. Once flax harvest is well underway and farmer selling commences, this price rally could pause, but in the meantime, if you have your flax off, give us a call for a picked-up price in your area.

Soybean futures oscillated in a narrow band today settling up slightly. This coming Friday’s USDA WASDE report has some traders levelling positions on what might be, a bean crop downgrade. Recent damage to the Gulf port hangs over the market and potentially threatens the export capacity on the brink of peak season. We are still early to be calling any finite production numbers as only 20% of the US crop is at the dropping leaves maturity phase. Local bids remain well supported near $17.00/bu FOB farm with prompt shipping. North American dry bean production will be markedly down year over year. Around the globe, Mexican bean production will be lower and Argentinian production is expected to be up. North American bids being led firmer by US values founded on the production volume decline. UK faba bean crop is expected to yield well. That said, local demand is likely to consume production and limit participation in export markets. A small amount of new crop has been harvested yet with bids hovering around $10.50/bu-$11.00/bu delivered.

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.

Rayglen Market Comments – September 1, 2021

Barley continues to pull some historical figures on product destined for the feed market. Area dependant values are indicated at $7.50 – $8.00/bu FOB farm for relatively quick shipment. If you are on the fence about selling, now may be a good time to pull the trigger as reports suggest nearby corn imports will reduce the need for feed barley, ultimately decreasing the value. Scattered showers throughout the Prairies last week will also increase the amount of feed hitting bins, another bearish signal for our strong values. The malt side of things seems to be growing interest as well and we suggest targeting $9.00 – $9.50/bu for good quality 2-row malt. We aren’t 100% certain these values will trigger, but recent rumors suggest maltsters may be interested in purchasing these values. At the end of the day if your offer trades, then great, if not, at least you didn’t leave money on the table. Delivery windows are starting to be pushed to October forward, so if you need cash flow or bin space consider making sales now.

As yield reports roll in, it is no revelation that pea supplies are going to be down in Canada and the US. This continues to support pricing with green and maple pea values increasing again this week. Green peas now have targets hitting at $17/bu picked up while buyers start to trigger maple peas at $18/bu picked up. Yellow peas are still priced competitively at $16/bu FOB but are showing a little less strength in comparison. Production in the US is also significantly down, which has US pricing showing strong gains. We have buyers looking for all qualities, so if you have #3 or feed specs give your merchant a call and we will work to capture the strongest values.

StatsCan estimates flax yields to be 30% below the 5-year average and the smallest crop since 2011. If that estimate is correct, then our export program for the upcoming year will be forced to reduce. As of August 23, only 1% of Saskatchewan flax was harvested. The Black Sea region also has reports of smaller yields which means that area will also have difficulty maintaining the level of exports they are accustomed to. We can expect flax prices to remain at record highs until the prices force buyers out of the market. A positive for flax marketing is that substitution is difficult for the majority of the linseed users, which should keep this market bullish. Prices do vary depending on movement, so call the Rayglen office for sale options once your flax harvest is underway.

The milling wheat market remains strong, but in light trade this week as bids remain comparative to feed pricing. This closeness in value makes milling sales tough as added quality specs push growers to make “easier” sales with very little spec to uphold. The feed wheat market trades between $10.00 – $10.75/bu FOB farm pending your location, with the highest bids still being seen in Western Sask. and Alberta. In comparison, good quality milling CWRS wheat, has been quoted between $10.50 – $11.00/bu delivered plant basis 13.5% protein. The durum market has been taking off like a rocket recently with bids for #2 or #3 CWAD sitting around $20/bu. If those values don’t quite do it for you, we suggest using the target system to try and squeeze a bit more out of the market.

The canary seed market is turning up the heat once again with bids of 54c/lb for sound quality actively trading. Strong values look to stay buoyed due to decreased production estimates here at home. As well, there is noise that Argentina’s outlook for planting is estimated to decrease roughly 30%. Couple that with continued production issues over in India and the year over year decrease in Niger seed and all together this could be interesting. The one hurdle to pushing things too much further may be the increase in US millet acres. With all that said, prices are at all-time highs, but how much further this market can go remains a mystery.

More reports are starting come in on mustard being harvested, and like everything else, the yields have been reported poor. The market has been a little more aggressive this week after sitting fairly flat for some time. Buyers are still looking for product and quick movement is still available. Posted bids remain at the following levels: Yellow mustard is indicated at 60 cents/lb, brown mustard at 50 cents/lb and oriental at 40 cents/lb, all picked up for a #1 quality. It is important to note that trades have triggered much higher on offer. Call your merchant with a target for any timeline and price, and we will see what we can do to get it traded.  Also, early seed orders are available for next year already. Talk to your merchant on this, as we are striving to keep pricing as close as we can to last year, but treatment costs are up like everything else.

The chickpea market in Canada is holding firm this week, encouraged by a surprisingly low production number coming from the StatsCan report released on Monday. They are estimating a 63,000 MT crop this year, down 72% from last year’s production. With chickpeas being such a small crop, we need to take this number with a grain of salt, but the overall trend lower is in line with expectations and should keep our prices high in the meantime. Current bids are as high as 60 cents/lb FOB farm, based on #2 kabuli chickpeas with max 10% 7mm sizing. Our buyers are taking looks at all offers above those values and we have homes for smaller sized chickpeas as well.

Lentil markets have softened a bit over the last week. All markets seem to have lost some steam, but reds have taken the biggest decline going from a peak of 55 cents/lb last week, down to an average bid of 50 cents/lb this week. That said, we have seen targets trigger at 51-52 cents/lb, so we encourage growers to try and push the market on firm offer. Large greens showed some slight declines from the highs as well, but we currently still have players in the 65 cent/lb FOB range. We suspect this bid isn’t very deep, so if you’re on the fence about selling, now may be the time. Small green bids remain strong trading at the 60-62 cents pending location and buyer. Again, posting targets at the high end is encouraged. Price decline/demand softness is attributed, for the most part, to harvest pressure sales and buyers taking delivery of pre booked contracts, which is relieving the pressure of needing product to fill orders. Markets will likely continue to have an ebb and flow until a firm number on supply is determined instead of just estimates.

Canola markets have been up and down through the week. November futures sit at $882/MT compared to $892/MT from last week so slightly down, but the demand is still strong for bushels. StatsCan predicted a drop of 24% in canola production from last year. The general trade tends to look at the StatCan numbers as overstated which could account for the lack luster response in the decreased production. Soybean oil futures are also seeing a decline in value which effects Canola but again, very little response to date. This indicates very tight stocks with no one willing to take a leap one way or another on exactly how short the supply might be…yet.

The oats market has been strong but sideways the last week or so. Sellers have not been offering up major tonnages, but a few sales here and there have kept things rolling along. For good #2 oats many bids are in the mid to high $5’s per bushel picked up on farm, with higher pricing being seen for those who are willing to hold out for 2022 for movement. We are seeing lighter oats around this year, but sales on those can still eclipse $5/bu in the yard in many cases, still a solid return. Harvest has been largely on hold the last couple weeks so reports have not brought much new news on what the rest of this crop will look like in terms of quality. Despite the already vastly reduced quantity, we hope some warmer days will come soon and we can at least see an end to the harvest on these disappointing yields.

Soybean futures have been in an overall downward trend since mid-August. Recent downward pressure is associated with gulf logistical damage due to hurricane Ida. Chinese crush volume is dipping slightly further, bringing additional burden to the soybean complex. Rains also continue across the Midwest. Local bids remain well supported near $15.00/bu delivered. Buyers are open to any reasonable offer as posted bids remain scarce. North American dry bean production will be markedly down this year over last year. Around the globe, Mexican bean production will be lower and Argentinian production is expected to be up. North American bids are being led firmer by US values founded on the production volume decline. The UK faba bean crop is expected to yield well. That said, local demand is likely to consume production and limit participation in export markets. Very minimal new crop has been harvested, with bids hovering around $10.50/bu-$11.00/bu delivered.

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.

Rayglen Market Comments – August 25, 2021

The barley market seems to be taking a quick breather and attempting to find itself. That $8.00/bu FOB farm pricing is still bouncing around but expect the delivery to be pushed out a bit. With recent showers throughout the Prairies, one would expect that we might see more feed grains then initially anticipated, so don’t expect a big run up in price anytime soon. Malt remains to be somewhat quiet to date, but it is suspected that is due to risk vs reward on comparing feed market to the malt market. China recently released information that they will be allowing imports from Kazakhstan which could have a bit of an impact on the feed market. If you’re on the fence if you should sell or not, locking in a percentage of the farm is not a bad idea. Would you rather sell in the middle, at a couple cents below the highest trade, or hold out and sell at the bottom, for a potential difference of dollars.

The wheat market remains to be an interesting one this week, as the spread from milling to feed is not much difference. Depending on location for feed wheat, you are looking anywhere from $10.00 – $10.50/bu FOB farm. Good quality milling wheat with high protein sits around $11.00 – $11.10. Durum values seem to be up in the air with buyers posting $20.00/bu, but with recent rains, it’s expected that what’s left standing in fields will be pushed down a grade or two. Posting a firm offer for any durum above posted values should gain some interest and locking up a certain percentage is not a bad idea. Even if you only do a couple loads you can brag that you sold $20 dollar durum. Soft white wheat seems to be making a splash right now as well, posting an $11.25/bu delivered bid.

Flax prices have been sideways as harvest is underway. Prices are holding in the $23.00-$24.00/bu range with the possibility of higher for a longer movement. Russian flax production is pegged to be steady as increased acres offsets a lower yield. In the US, lower yields will also offset the increased acres and the overall change in supplies compared to last year is expected to be small. Still, the biggest unknown, is what the Chinese market will do. Since these flax prices are historically high, especially right before harvest, it’s hard to gauge how much upside there could be in pricing going forward before some demand starts to back off. For now, the momentum on prices remains strong.

The pea market continues to stay strong this past week with great bids showing on all types of peas. Spot bids are up to $16.00 – $16.50/bu FOB farm on both yellow and green peas for standard #2 quality. If you have a little bit of bleaching in your greens, there are options at minimal discounts that can be sorted out. If you are a maple pea grower, we have buyers that are triggering offers at $16.00/bu picked up on farm for fall movement, but buyers do need to know what variety they are buying, as different ones are preferred for different markets.  For those that are growing one of the lesser-known pea types such as a Dun pea, we have current bids as high as $16.00/bu delivered to plant. These pea prices seem to be mainly driven by the US market and not the usual overseas buyers. Therefore, it is yet to be seen how deep this market is and how long this will be sustained but for the time being market prices are great, so act accordingly.

Oats continue to trade sideways this week as we haven’t seen much variance in bids. That being said, pricing remains strong around that $5.50/bu range delivered in. Buyers are looking for product so if you have a target price in mind, let your Rayglen merchant know. With production on the lighter side this year, there have been musings of possibly importing from Australia or Europe to help absorb some the shortfall expected. Time will tell on whether this comes to fruition as oat harvest has just started in some locations. Though this rain is welcome, it has a start and stop type of dance going on with the combines, let’s just hope it doesn’t mess with quality too much more, as it’s already been a tough year.

The canary seed harvest is just beginning in a few areas, with many combines being held up by rain. Bids have been holding quite strong in this market, and consistently moving upwards each week it seems. We can expect the canary seed crop will be reduced this year as drought has affected it heavily. Over this past week, canary seed pricing has been posted at 50 cents/lb FOB farm. If you have a certain price in mind, we suggest calling your Rayglen merchant and putting up a firm offer.

Lentils continue to climb this week. The biggest question being asked is whether this market is at the top, or can they climb a little bit higher? Whether they go higher or not is anyone’s guess. It has been a long time since lentils have remained at this level and we must keep in mind that most places that are buying lentils are not rich countries. Therefore, if the prices get too high, they will find a replacement. Right now, Canada is in a situation where we are one of the few countries that has product available to market.  In a couple months, Australia’s lentils will come online, and reports suggest that they have a decent crop that will be harvested.  If they get the expected quantity and good quality, this should put pressure on the red market for later in the marketing year.  The other factor that would cause prices to drop is if these markets are running due to short covering. Once these shorts are covered, buyers will back away from the table.  Looking at today’s pricing, we are seeing reds at 55 cents, large green lentils at 65 cents, and small green lentils are 62 cents, all FOB farm. In today’s market, it is best to call in to get up to date pricing as they are changing daily.

Mustard is starting to come off in areas of Alberta and Saskatchewan. Recent rains and cool weather have slowed progress. Growers that have started are reporting below average yields, which is what we expected. Things are very tough in many areas. Will prices start to pick up again? This is yet to be seen as the market has been completely flat this week. Buyers are still looking for product and quick movement is still available. Yellow mustard is priced at 60 cents, brown mustard at 50 cents and oriental indicated at 40 cents, all picked up for a #1 quality. Call your merchant with a target for any timeline and price, and maybe a trade for a little better can be done.

The canola market was up and down through the week but steady from last week at $914.80 Nov. and $898.40 Jan 22’. Markets are watching soybeans very closely this week as soy prices start to slide. Canola will require a huge premium to soy to keep the acres up for the coming year. The bean production is massive and can easily replace Canola where it is lacking, but to lose Canola acres can mean a huge disruption in the market for the coming years. Right now, it is too soon to see a definite guideline, but the market is paying close attention.

After staying incredibly quiet for 2-3 years, the chickpea market has taken off in a big way over the past week. Instead of the usual 1-2 cent changes we would normally see in this market, we’ve been looking at 5-10 cent intervals. This type of extreme pricing movement is not something we see often and has caught the attention of chickpea growers all over. Currently, bids are around 60 cents/lb FOB farm for #2 large kabuli chickpeas. Many bids are based on max 10% 7 mm sizing with discounts to apply over the 10%. We are encouraging offers for different qualities and price points to show to our buyers as they are eager to see what it takes to make purchases.

The soybean market showed big gains yesterday based on degrading crop condition scores. Followed today by profit taking and a marginal dip until propped back up by rumors of Chinese purchases, a refocus on crop condition scores and river logistics issues in South America. Local bids remain well supported near $15.50/bu delivered. Buyers are open to any reasonable offer as posted bids remain scarce. North American dry bean production will be markedly down year over year. Around the globe, Mexican bean production will be lower and Argentinian production is expected to be up. North American bids being led firmer by US values founded on the production volume decline. UK faba bean crop is expected to yield well. That said, local demand is likely to consume production and limit participation in export markets. Very few new crop acres have been harvested yet with bids hovering around $8.50/bu fob farm location dependent.

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.

Rayglen Market Prices – August 18, 2021

Faba beans maintain steady export pace, with the US being the dominant buyer of Canadian product. Local bids hover around $9.00/bu picked up and are likely to stay there for the near future. This is because values are generally set by Australia, where crops are looking favorable, preventing the market from shifting drastically upward. If we do see a bump in bids, that support will have to come from the feed market. Despite a smaller US and Canadian crop, export demand is likely to stay subdued as Mexican and South American crops play a bigger factor. For those with soybeans in the bins, prices remain sideways, with most buyers looking for firm offers. Please call the office to discuss soybean sales.

Flax harvest is yet to hit full swing, leaving uncertainty around production numbers. However, production in other key markets may offset lower Canadian yields as conditions in Russia are still favorable. Current bids remain strong and range anywhere from $22-$24.00/bu depending on movement. There is some talk that the price could dip slightly if the inventory being held at the Chinese border from the Black Sea region is off loaded at its destination, but with Covid and new variants, the Chinese border remains closed 80% of the time from Russia. The other big unknown factor in the 2021 outlook is the crop produced in China. If their crop has recovered from last year, it could mean a smaller import program.

The feed wheat market continues to be a bull with values nearing and, in some cases, beating milling bids. Recent trades have taken place in the $10.00 – $10.50/bu range, at the bin for August/September movement, with more than a handful of buyers willing to explore these prices. The milling wheat market continues strong as well with bids just over $11/bu delivered in many cases. Milling durum continues its steady pace as well, but firm values are a bit trickier to track down. Rumors of $18/bu delivered plant have risen in Southern Saskatchewan and we suspect there may be interest in actually purchasing these values. This poses a great opportunity for growers to use the firm target system to secure top end bids. So far this year, the firm offer system has been the most effective marketing tool.

The mustard market has seen very little change as we progress into the week. Buyers are still looking for product and are bidding aggressively to get it. Prompt movement options are also available, especially for brown mustard in the bin and ready to ship. Yellow mustard is priced at 60 cents/lb, brown mustard at 50 cents and oriental indicated at 40 cents, all picked up for a #1 quality. Buyers are also still interested in seeing firm offers on all types of mustard, if you have a target price in mind. Moving internationally, we have seen Russian mustard values turn higher, which may be a sign of a poorer harvest abroad. This may add more uneasiness to the market in the near future.

The barley market remains to be a bit of a roller coaster ride, but not one you need to psych yourself up for before getting on. Values seem to be changing daily, but not fluctuating much further than 0.10 – 0.15/bu from $8.00. As always, barley figures are freight and destination sensitive, which makes up most of these fluctuations. We are already starting to see the delivery period being pushed out and most sales now include a September – October delivery period, with the odd trade pushed out until November. If you are in need of cash flow, it’s highly suggested to lock in some product now, not only because delivery windows are being pushed out, but also because bids are starting to see discounts for winter shipments. It is tricky to pinpoint the highs and lows of commodity markets right now and many are left wondering: Is there room for barley to go up? Possibly, but as corn moves up from the USA, demand for feed barley could soften, ultimately dragging bids lower. If that $8.00/bu range isn’t screaming at you, now is the time to call in and post a firm offer. If it trades, great! If not, then at least you know you didn’t leave money on the table.

Most of the canary seed seeded this year has yet to be combined and we are already seeing a dramatic shift in prices. Bids move up in waves, to values we haven’t experienced in the past fifteen years. Expectations of a small crop in Western Canada, as well as lower ending stocks coming into this year, have bids for canary seed up to 47 cents/lb FOB farm. Concerns of filling our usual export demand are present in the industry and we will have to wait and see how this plays out moving forward. As always, if you have a price in mind a bit above the current market be sure to give us a call to put in a firm target and get multiple buyers’ eyes on it.

Canola markets see more gains this week with November futures hovering at $913/MT vs $871/MT at this time last week. The steady increase in Canola markets is believed to be driven by a possible production number of 15-17 mil. vs the initially anticipated 20mil. StatsCan is schedule to issue details of the crop Aug 30th from survey details. It is the general consensus that we are still in a bull market and that futures are undervalued considering the tight balances. In other news, SaskCanola and the SK Ministry of Ag. are conducting free testing for the first 200 growers for blackleg race ID testing through Discovery Seed Labs in Saskatoon.

The chickpea market is strong, yet quiet at the same time as chickpea harvest has not reached full swing. That said, prices have been gaining strength with buyers showing a range in bids on large Kabulis from 40 to 45 cents delivered for #2 quality. For those who do have product in the bin, the shipping timeline is relatively quick, currently quoted as Sept./Oct. Chickpea supply is expected to be reduced this year due to poor harvest yields, which will eat up much of the carryover still in bins from last year’s production that did not get sold due to weak demand and prices. Poor, early reports from US crops are helping prices a bit this week and with no sellers lined up in Canada to sell, it should have some support for the time being.

The pea market continues on a tear this week. Green peas have been trading up to $16.00/bu FOB farm for movement out to December with options for earlier shipment and slightly discounted values ($15-15.50/bu). Yellow peas have been trading at and around the $15.00/bu mark also for Sept./October. Again, faster movement on yellows at a slightly lower price would be an option as well. The maple pea market has shot up suddenly and has been trading around $15.00/bu to $16.00/bu FOB this week. This is a remarkable jump for such a short period of time. Bids do remain variety specific, but for the most part all but Liscard varieties are accepted. If you are looking for a certain price or movement period, please call your Rayglen merchant to put in a target. This seems to be a good strategy with current market conditions.

The heat has taken a real toll on crops this year, with oats not being an exception. As quality scales back and looks to be a concern for most places, prices remain strong. Milling oats are trading at $5.50/bu delivered in with feed holding down $3.50 – $4.00/bu picked up on the farm. That being said, if you have a firm target in mind let your Rayglen merchant know as buyers don’t want to lose out on product. Weight will more than likely be an issue so knowing what you are working with when it comes to marketing product will be beneficial.

Lentil markets continue to strengthen as harvest is already over 30% complete and yield reports are showing less than average numbers.  Large green lentils have jumped up to 55 cents/lb FOB farm for #2 or better quality. Small green lentils are now trading at 50 cents on farm for shipment as early as the end of August. While reds are not moving up as quickly, values are creeping up and strong. Product is being bid in the 40-43 cent range with little grower uptake at this point. Buyers seem to be hungry for this product with most providing movement before the end of October, if not sooner. Prices still have some distance to go to hit the highs of 2015/16, but they are well on their way to match if not surpass those figures.

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.

Rayglen Market Comments – August 11, 2021

The flax market is sideways this week. This is not to say prices are weak; they are still very strong but due to minimal product left in the bin and new crop still a few weeks away, the market has gone a little quiet. We are still showing an old crop bid on brown flax around $24/bu picked up on farm to move promptly for those that still have product in bin. New crop bids are a bit lower yet by a couple bucks but do include an act of God for those inclined to take what’s on the table today. Poor growing conditions (i.e., drought) in a decent amount of the world’s flax growing areas leads to some bullish sentiment on flax but with prices as they are how much further can things push one has to ask? I guess we will see how things continue to unfold but let us know if you have, or will have, product so we can keep you abreast of price changes via phone or email/text price alerts.

Barley pricing remains to pull in some top dollar figures to date. Pricing for August – September movement is around the $8.00 – $8.50/bu FOB farm range depending on area. Buyers remain hesitant to buy anything still sitting in the field but are pushing for anything taken off and ready to move. If you are ahead of the game one would highly suggest looking at starting to move some now before post-harvest bins start to get fuller and possibly affect the price downwards a bit. Likely there is some lightweight barley going to be out there this year, but it will still work into the feed market at a discount price; that will likely still be a good take home money option. Maltsters remain quiet to date, but we suspect lots are going to roll the dice and wait to see what the overall quality is coming off this year. For anything above these values call in today to place a firm offer.

Harvest is underway in most areas and with the yields we are expecting, ending stocks will be tight for mustard this marketing year. Buyers have increased pricing to shake some product loose, but movement into the market has been quiet as we wait for harvest to wrap up. Yellow mustard targets have hit at 60 cents picked up on farm and brown at 50 cents picked up. Oriental has bids are being shown at 38 cents, however targets at higher values will likely get looked at. Mustard buyers are also looking for lower grade product so if you have any in your bin let your merchant know.

The current oat crop has been rated at 41% good to excellent as per reports, which would be considered weak as drought conditions continue to hinder the crops. Buyers have bumped up their posted oat prices this week to $5.50/bu delivered. $5.00/bu picked up would likely trade in most areas or at least close to it. Feed oats have also traded between $3.50 – 4.00/bu picked up. Buyers are looking for product, so we will be able to find a home for any quality you may have on farm.

The pea market is on fire this week.  Poor early yields in many areas due to too much heat and insufficient rain has helped push up bids substantially. The green pea market has been trading up to $15.00/bu FOB farm for movement out into September/October while yellow peas have been trading around $14.00/bu FOB respectively. Faster movement on a slightly lower price would be an option as well as there are a few different options available. The maple pea market has been going up as well and has been trading around $13.00/bu FOB this week on product set to move out into early winter months. Old and new crop bids are blending into one price now as harvest has begun in most areas. If you are looking for a certain price or movement period, please call your Rayglen merchant to put in a target.

The wheat markets remain powerful this week. On old crop feed wheat, or new crop that is ready to move quickly, the price has been trading between $9.50-$10.50/bu FOB farm for August movement depending on farm location. The closer you are to feedlot alley, the better the price usually is. On old crop milling #1 CWRS wheat with 13.5% protein for September/October movement bids are showing between $10.00 to $10.10/bu delivered to facility in various areas. The durum wheat market has been taking off and has been trading around $15.00/bu for product located in the southeast part of Saskatchewan. There are a lot of concerns this year over yield and quality so we will know a lot more about this market in coming weeks as we get a better feel for what is actually out there for a crop.

Chickpea markets still hover at that $0.40/lb FOB farm bid today for 3rd quarter movement despite yield estimates expected to be around 20bu/acre for the coming crop. This is a reduction of 57% from last year and market still debates what is in the bin as carryover. Size profiles remain a bit of a concern as the plants developed through high temp weather stretches. India prices show higher value in the 8-9mm size kabuli while larger sizes are not seeing the same jump yet. There are a lot of moving targets with chickpeas as we inch closer to harvest. There are some things to consider, such as the higher prices of previous years were a result of global issues in the production. Today’s driving force in recent higher prices are results of a crop failure in the US and Canada’s unwillingness to sell stock. It’s unclear how long or how high those markets can push these bids. Right now, it seems the best marketing strategy is in the offer to the buyer and see who will show up to buy. Neither buyer nor seller wants to stick their neck out with so many uncertain factors soon to be answered.

Canola futures are up slightly today.  November futures sit at $892/MT, compared to $871/MT at this time last week. When reading the charts and watching the historical data, analysists say all signs point to another run in the market, but this is only theory. To support that theory, and it’s no secret, a large part of the US Canola crop is grown in North Dakota which saw severe hot weather/drought throughout the growing season. Canada experiences the same adverse weather and despite the increased acres, the production numbers come into question. USDA releases their soybean crop forecast tomorrow which could mean a move in the market depending on the numbers. Compared to its substitutes, Canola is expensive, and the information shared tomorrow could mean a shift away from Canola oil to bean oil. With harvest looming all eyes are on production numbers in both US and Canada.

The reality of a small canary seed production number from Canada this year has set in as bids have jumped up again this week. At the end of July, canary seed crop conditions were rated at 22% good or excellent, well below the ten-year average of around 70%. The expected small crop, combined with strong pricing over the past two years to clean up canary seed that producers had stockpiled for over a decade, casts doubt on our ability to fill our usual export demand for the year. For these reasons, we have seen canary seed bids of 45 cents/lb FOB farm from multiple buyers. Downside risk seems minimal at this point, but we won’t be sure where the top is until some real selling begins to take place.

Soybeans have seen a slight upward turn this week as futures today are touching around the $13.41 mark, up a bit from last week at the same time, with most of August seeing about the $13.25 range. Local markets in the US seem to be trading in the $14 range showing some positive basis to growers. The USDA’s latest reports have the soybean crop at 58% good to excellent, down from 60% the week before possibly contributing to a slight price bump.  Old crop feed fabas are still trading between $8.50-$9.00/bu fob farm location dependent. New crop #2 export quality fabas remain in the $8.50/bu FOB farm but rumors of higher bids are around. Local buyers are currently taking offers on soybeans around the Prairies and finding a market can be a bit challenging as there has not been many to process and buyers have basically given up finding supplies until new crop comes online.

The lentil markets are hot this week and buyers seem to be hungry for product. They are looking for all varieties; large green, medium green, small green, French green, reds, and Beluga lentils. Large greens have traded this week for 50 cents/lb on #2 quality picked up on farm, small greens at 44 cents on #1, #2 reds and beluga at 40 cents respectively.  Buyers seem to be looking for coverage for the shorts they are seeing on production. Once more product becomes available to the marketplace prices may stabilize or slip some but the supply is not terribly deep and other world production issues may creep in as well as we are not in a bubble.

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.

Rayglen Market Comments – August 4, 2021

Weather forecast for the US Midwest is for cooler temperatures which will help as the soybean crop is in the pod development phase. This recent weather pattern raises the prospects for better than earlier expected yields. Futures are gyrating based on veg. oil markets and early yield forecasts. That said, as we get closer to harvest, the futures have been trending down since July 19th. Local buyers are still wanting to see offers from sellers as the bid/ask spread remains marked. UK faba bean crop is expected to yield well. However, local demand is likely to consume production and limit participation in export markets.  Old crop fabas are trading between $8.50-$9.00/bu fob farm location dependent. New crop #2 export quality fabas are hovering right around $8.50/bu fob farm. Dry bean bids are now inching higher as the market digests what will surely be lower production. On-farm old crop inventories are suspected to be higher than usual which will ease the impact of lower production this harvest. Dry beans are another market that buyers are requesting seller offers as they mutually discover market price.

Feed barley market pricing remains firm this week. Old crop pencils in around the $8.25/bu FOB farm as an area dependant value, but we are starting to hear of some buyers pulling the pin on old crop, opting to wait for new crop. New crop feed barley is sitting around that $6.00-$7.00/bu price range, but as we all know these numbers could fluctuate a bit once the combines start rolling. The malt side of barley remains pretty quiet to date. There is still opportunity out there, but given the price and demand for feed, we suspect maltsters are finding it difficult to pay a “premium”. Although they are both “barley” markets, the end game and user are completely different, making it tough for one to compete with the other. We suspect there will be lots of high protein/ light weight barley this year so maltsters might need to sharpen their pencils to fill the malt houses once we have a better grasp on quality. Firm offers seem to be trading lately as most buyers wait for the producer to come to the table first. We all know the game being played this year, given the drought, so firm grower offers help keep the bins at the feed lot full and the bins at home empty.

As we all know, lack of moisture and high temperatures have affected pea yields all over the Prairies and across the US. This has had a positive outcome for pricing though, with bids increasing again this week. Yellow and green peas both have bids at $12.00/bu FOB, with some grower offers being entertained at higher values. Maple peas have also seen an uptick, trading at $11.00/bu FOB last week, and are likely to trade slightly higher this week. Old crop and new crop bids are being indicated at similar levels this week with the odd opportunity to still capture an AOG, but that option is fading. Buyers have shown increased interest in peas these past weeks, therefore, if you have a target price in mind let your merchant know. One thing to keep an eye on is movement, as some buyers are bidding into September – October already.

Wheat markets remain strong all around for both feed and milling quality. Old crop feed values are sitting in some widespread ranges but $9.50 – $10.30/bu at the bin is indicated for August movement, while new crop feed values are sitting around that $8.00 – $9.00/bu, both freight dependant. The biggest news recently has been the push for soft white and red winter wheat. Current pricing is quoted at $10.75/bu and $10.55 respectively for August movement. The durum market seems to be a tricky one to nail down right now, but a good indication is around $12.50 – $13.00/bu. Although you have likely heard it before, we cannot stress enough that if these values are not appealing to you, firm offers are getting lots of attention. Buyers are likely sitting back as uncertainty over this coming crop is at an all-time high. Firm offers grab attention as nobody really wants to miss out on any opportunities this year. Lots of wheat is being put into bails so we suspect production this year may be less than initially anticipated. You most definitely don’t have to go out there and sell the whole farm but starting out with 25% is a good number and can bring some cash flow back to the farm.

As we inch another week closer to flax harvest, prices remain sideways with old crop anywhere from $24-$25/bu picked up and new crop quoted in the $20-$21/bu FOB farm range. According to analysts, flax ratings in Saskatchewan have levelled off but even at 22% good or excellent as of July 28, the flax crop is rated the worst since 2003. There has been some confusing data surrounding the Kazakhstan flax inventories and there is a possibility that there was quite a bit of flax held back. Once those supplies start to make their way to destinations, it could affect Chinese demand. Although there is lingering uncertainty, we are not likely to see any downside as far as pricing goes. Tight North American supply and potential issues in the Black Sea region 2021 crop should keep this market propped up.

Harvest has begun early this year and some yield reports are coming in now. Even though mustard hasn’t really started to hit the bin yet, it is obvious there are going to be yield challenges. This is keeping mustard markets and values very strong. All types of mustard are included in this strength. New crop mustard is pretty much done for the year now, so all prices are spot and picked up in your yard. Yellow mustard is trading at 55 cents FOB for a November/December type movement. Brown mustard sits at 45 cents FOB. Oriental Forge and Vulcan has moved up to 38 cents FOB for fall movement, while Cutlass sits at 37 cents now.  Please call your merchant to discuss movement options as quick pickup will likely be available. Show us all offers, and we will see if we can get them traded.

According to the latest crop condition reports out of Saskatchewan, Alberta and Montana, the general consensus is that lentils continue to deteriorate.  This continued deterioration in crop condition will tighten up the overall end stocks. Markets are responding to the realization that Canadian and USA crop conditions are not going to produce big yields. Large green lentils have responded the most with bids now at 45-47 cents/lb.  While reds trail in the uptick, they’re still showing strength with bids around 35-36 cents/lb. Small greens have seen a spike as well trading as high as 41 cents/lb. These markets are changing daily so call us for the most up to date prices as we are in constant communication with buyers.

Concerns about this year’s Canary seed yield potential remains in full force as rains continue to elude large areas around the Prairies. Despite an expected rise in Canary seed acres this year, it appears we will see well below average yields and not produce enough to meet our usual export numbers. Old and new crop bids keep rising and today sit at 40 cents/lb FOB farm, numbers that we have not seen in quite some time. While we don’t see much downside in this market right now, only time will tell where the top will be and if customers will continue to come to the table at higher values.

After a drop down to start the week, canola futures are rebounding today, although still slightly down from a week ago. November futures sit at $871/MT, compared to $874/MT at this time last week. January futures are a bit lower still at $858/MT, just down from last week when they were $860/MT. These solid futures prices combined with strong local basis levels make for solid bids on canola moving forward. The rebound we’re seeing today is coming from continued drought across big areas of the province. As harvest nears in the Southern half of the Prairies, concerns over what total canola production will be is rising. Expect strong pricing to continue moving forward.

With expected bushels aiming in a downward trend, oat prices are coming around as buyers are on the hunt again. Pricing looks to be sitting in around that $5.45/bu delivered into Southern Manitoba. Yes, that number started with a 5. When was the last time we’ve seen that? Bushel weight will be a big factor though this year as the expectation is to be pulling in light and thin, which is not a great combination… but this is a year where most can’t afford to be too picky as top quality may be a bit elusive. Time will tell until the bushel numbers and weights start rolling in.

The chickpea crop outlook report indicates that Saskatchewan and Alberta are hovering around 10% good to excellent. Not exactly overwhelmingly great, but in a year like this one, it seems kind of par for the course. We have seen bids pull up to sit around 40c/lb on a #2 Kabuli. That used to be the magic number for a lot of producers several weeks ago, but now it’s crickets. Poor crop conditions have pushed the need to get as much value out of chickpeas and any other high-priced commodity to offset the lack of expected bushels coming in. Look to see this commodity buoyed for the time being as well due to our US counterparts who, unfortunately, are also struggling with poor crop conditions. Where is the ceiling?

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.

Rayglen Market Comments – July 21, 2021

Much like the weather, the barley market remains hot. Old crop feed values currently hover around $7.50 – $8.00/bu picked up on the farm for August movement. Prices will differ depending on the area, but regardless, these are great values. We suspect there is not much barley left sitting in storage to date, but if you have some bin bottoms left on the farm, now is the time to pay the neighbour kids to come shovel. New crop barley is still trending at $5.50/bu on the farm with pickup for earlier movement, and if this price doesn’t quiet do the trick for you, call in and throw out a firm offer. This does not necessarily mean that it trades at a higher value, but demand is strong and to quote an unknown source, “you never know, unless you try.” Although the new crop values do not come with an act of God, it may be late enough into the growing season now that you have a pretty good handle on what you can expect to bring in off the combine. This should alleviate some of the risk or stress of entering into a DDC contract.

As the majority of Canadian crops continue to experience a heatwave and lack of moisture, so do US crops. Domestic pea harvest will be occurring earlier than normal this year and has already begun in some of the northern states, such as Montana. After reports of a decline in green pea acres and now reduced yields, we see more demand and strength in green pea values. Expected yields have been cut back for all peas and we anticipate that supplies will be short this marketing year; likely boding well for pricing on all types. Old crop bids for yellow peas are indicated at $10.00/bu FOB with new crop at $9.50/bu FOB. Green peas are trading at $10.00/bu FOB on old and indicated as high as $10.50/bu on new crop. Maple peas are still quiet with bids around $9.00/bu on old and new with very few buyers coming to the table.

Canary seed production, like most other crops, is taking a hit on potential yield outcome. Earlier in July the canary crop was rated at 18% good to excellent and we have not had much favorable weather since, which means that percentage is likely reduced. On one hand we did have an increase in canary seed acres, however, these reduced yields will likely tighten supplies for this marketing year. Right now, old and new crop bids remain historically strong at $0.37/lb delivered plant; values we haven’t seen in ~20 years. We can expect that there will not be much downside in pricing, however we will have to see how much upside potential there is if demand is scaled back.

Flax prices remain solid as we move another week closer to harvest. There are buyers who still have room for old crop with indications up to $24.00/bu FOB and moved within the next couple months. New crop bids vary depending on movement timeframe, but prices can be found starting at $19.50 -$20.00/bu picked up, still with an act of God. With low carry-over supplies, there hasn’t been much flax moving into the market as of late and deliveries are well below average since April. On the flip side, stocks have been sitting at the West Coast, likely heading to China, which means there is still some buying interest before new crop comes off. What new crop yields will be remains a guessing game, but we don’t think anyone expects a bumper crop. Conditions continue to change but demand still needs to be filled. You will likely see prices continue to be historically high for the near future as we move forward.

Wheat markets see continued strength this week based on poor crop conditions throughout much of North America. On the feed side of things, you can expect to see values in the $9.50-$10.00/bu range FOB pending location. That said, with the recent strength, growers are encouraged to use the offer system to try and capture values slightly higher. The strongest bids remain to be seen in SW Sask. and Alberta as you move closer to feedlot alley, but buyers are looking for whatever they can get their hands on, meaning those in NE & SE Sask. need not worry. Milling wheat markets have also seen prices strengthen up this week, now indicated around $10.25 to $10.60/bu delivered for 13.5% protein product. The durum market is not left on the sidelines either and has been exploding this week. Prices seem to be all over the board, but bids are strong, and we’ve heard reports of $12-$15/bu available. If you do have some in the bin or in the field and are looking to market it, the best thing to do is to show your Rayglen merchant and they will get you a firm value in your yard.

Chinese soy demand is temporarily waning largely due to diminishing margins for Chinese soy crush facilities. Chinese buyers have partially opted for cheaper feed alternatives for the country’s large hog herd. This has caused traders to pause and, at times, has created some short-term softening in the Chicago soybean complex. The weakening Chinese demand is offset by global supply concerns in both Brazil and the US Midwest. Both have suffered from drought conditions in particular production regions. Bids are muted and buyers are asking for firm offers from sellers. Old crop fabas are trading between $8.50-$9.00/bu FOB farm, location dependent. New crop #2 export quality fabas are hovering right around $8.50/bu FOB farm. It’s estimated that dry bean acres in Canada and the US have decreased 18% and 13% respectively. Larger carryover inventory will not be enough to compensate for lower production and thus overall, 2021-22 supply is expected to decrease. Markets remain well supported predicated on export demand. Many are wondering when or if poor crop condition ratings will begin to factor into local price.

A reduction in seeded acres, diminishing carry-in and sliding yield prospects have the 2021-22 oat balance sheet tipping towards historically low levels. South of the 49th parallel, seeded acres are down 20% and expected harvest area is approaching a 30% decrease. US total oat production is anticipated to be down 37% year over year. Old crop milling demand is currently thin as millers largely have their programs covered. That said, they too have concerns about general supply with new crop bids being $4.25-$4.50 bu delivered in the eastern Prairies region.

Canola futures remain solid this week, but markets have seen some declines since yesterday’s close. At time of writing, November futures are down just over $36/MT with January not far off seeing a $30/MT fall. The majority of fragility is derived from the weakening soy complex, but scattered showers throughout the Prairies on Tuesday have likely helped to ease values as well. Currently, November sits at $874/MT with January only slightly lower at $860/MT. Local basis levels remain strong with indications on spot purchases still at $25/MT over for July/Aug., putting bids at roughly $20.50/bu delivered plant. New crop basis levels have shifted to $5/MT under for Sept./Oct. and $5-$15/MT over for November through March. This puts new crop bids in the $19.50-$20/bu range delivered plant. Values are historically strong and likely to stay as such until production hits the bin at which time the market will reevaluate supply and take direction.

The lentil market is very quiet on the selling side, even with buyers having some interest in purchasing. The red lentils market is the quietest of all the markets, this is likely due to the tonnage limit in India. Prices are ranging from 32-34 cents Fob farm. Buyers seem to have a bit more of an appetite for the large green lentils with price ranging from 36-40 cents Fob farm. Small green lentils are trading in the 34-35 cent range. Medium green lentils are trading in that 33-34 cent range.  Going into August, reds likely will remain flat to start the month off but may strengthen as yield reports come in. There is usually strong interest right off the combine for any green lentil as buyers want to book up and ship number 1 lentils right away as not to lose colour by shipping later in the year. Prices seem to vary from plant to plant and are changing rapidly, so leave the price discovery up to the merchants at Rayglen and you worry about harvest.

Mustard prices are again showing strength over the past week. With carryover tight, and crop conditions, there is no change to the tight outlook and prices remain strong. All types of mustard are included in this rise. Yellow mustard is trading at 54 cents FOB on both old and new crop, and it could possibly trade higher for full crop year movement. Brown mustard sits at 44 cents FOB and new crop goes even higher to possibly 45-46 cents for full year movement. Oriental Forge and Vulcan mustard go up to 37 cents FOB for old crop and new pushes to at least 38 cents. Cutlass sits at 36 for stuff in the bin and as high as 38 cents for full crop year on new crop. These prices are obviously at yearly highs and new crop is still available with an act of God for the time being. Good opportunities!

The chickpea market seems to be stronger, yet it’s not really making a racket about higher prices. We have had a few trades go through at 37c/lb FOB farm to 38 cents delivered on #2 large Kabulis over the last week, but by and large most sellers are in no rush as bin space is not at a premium this year. New crop prices on chickpeas are fairly similar with buyer interest at 37 cents, which should still include an act of God clause. Crop reports in recent weeks have surprisingly not fallen off drastically from the early positive conditions on chickpeas to the more recent very negatives. We are most likely passed the point of anything really helping this chickpea crop increase production, but quite possibly, cooler temperatures and smoke coverage might have lessened the complete losses. All in all, we do not expect much production on chickpeas given the weather conditions that most of the Canadian chickpea growing areas have experienced.

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.

Rayglen Market Comments – July 14, 2021

Canary seed prices are really holding at some unreal values with bids popping up to 37 cents as a delivered to plant price which is about the highest price, or darn close to it, that anyone here can ever recall on canary. New crop contract is at 37 cents with an act of God covering drought provided that the buyer is informed of any difficulties in due fashion. A notable point for any act of God contract is that the responsibility is there to inform your contracting parties promptly when you feel that the crop will not produce your contracted tonnages, so don’t let that important job fall through the cracks. Finally, the bins seem to be cleaned out on old canary seed stocks, which is not something we have been able to say for a number of years, but the stocks seem to be tighter now. It’s yet to be seen what this crop will produce this year but obviously this drought is not really adding up to a bumper crop on anything and canary is no different.

The US reported an increase to the chickpea acres for the coming year but with the ongoing poor growing conditions in both US and Canada the yield is expected to offset the increase. Some statistics expect the Canadian crop to be under 100k MTS which is under half of what was produced last year. As of June 28th, the crop rating is 10% good to excellent, down from 77% two weeks prior. Global trade is relatively quiet today, but as actual numbers start to leak out with harvest, it is suspected that the market perks up with slight concern over where supply will come from. Chickpeas have been known to bounce back but the question now is are we passed that point?

Mustard prices have moved up again this week as the crop conditions continue to regress within Canada and Montana. With another week of heat and concerns with grasshoppers popping up, we can expect yields to be down this year. Carryover supplies were already considered tight and with crop ratings coming down, prices are likely to remain bullish on all varieties. Yellow mustard is trading at 52 cents FOB on both old and new crop. Brown mustard took a jump on old crop to 44 cents FOB and new crop remains at 42 cents. Oriental mustard is priced at 36 cents FOB for both old and new. Demand is likely to increase and outlook on pricing remains positive.

Flax prices continue to climb as crop conditions deteriorate and supply gets tighter.  Buyers are still looking to purchase old crop at the $24.00 dollar range for July movement. New crop bids have perked up at $19.00-19.50 per bushel depending on movement window.  Not only are the North American flax crops in bad shape but reports now are suggesting that Kazakhstan and Russian crops may also be in rough shape.  Some major limiting factors in seeing the flax market push any higher than today’s crazy heights are the Chinese demand, and that the USA crush market continues to shrink. The overall outlook on flax will still remain positive but with current values obviously the upside provides some limitations on what more it could do.

The wheat market continues to be strong this week with most of the focus being pushed on the feed market side of things. Values range from $8.00 – $8.75/bu at the bin depending on the area. If you are searching for a bit higher value, we highly suggest putting in a target. New crop feed wheat also remains strong today with prices hitting around the $7.00 – $8.00/bu FOB farm. Milling wheat has also seen a bit of a rise this week with earlier movement ranging in that $10.20/bu for high protein (13.5%). Pushing into new crop, September delivery sits around $9.40 for a #1 CWRS, 13.5%, with that price trickling up as you push into later months for delivery. Although these prices do not come with an active act of God attached to them, locking in 5% – 10% of what you think you will produce would not be a bad idea to date. Preselling can give you a bit of money flow you can count on with some earlier movement.

Barley markets remain strong once again this week with all the push being into the feed market. There is not much talk surrounding malt prices but given the current price for feed, not many are exploring the option anyways. Old crop feed values are ranging in the $6.70 – $7.10/bu at the bin. Rightfully so as given the past few weeks, even months, with the price at those levels there is not much feed sitting in the bins. If someone had told you last fall that you could get $7.00 for your malt barley, let alone feed, you would have sold the whole lot. If you’re searching for a couple cents higher, product does seem to be moving on firm targets. New crop barley is hovering around the $6.00 – $6.50/bu at the bin price which is also a very strong number with earlier movement. Same scenario on new crop as old crop, so if you are searching for a bit more take-home price, call in and place out a firm offer. If it trades good, and if it doesn’t well at least you can say you tried.

Soybean futures are up on the week as the margin for error on this year’s US crop continues to be very small. While some soybean areas have received plenty of rain, there are significant areas such as North Dakota, which makes up 8% of national soybean acres, that continue to be in trouble. There is still buying interest in our markets these days, with firm targets appearing to be the best way to price out any soybeans left on farm. Reports out of Argentina are showing drought conditions have affected both yields and sizing of their dry bean crop. Meanwhile, Minnesota dry beans are entering into the flowering stage this week and there are concerns of drought in some key areas out there. Faba beans have stayed fairly quiet this week and look to be trading into feed markets around $8.50-$9/bu FOB farm.

Oats have been very quiet over the last while, but the brutal heat has been putting several crops in quite a bit of trouble. We have been hearing that a large chunk of the crop is in distress. So, the future, not just on oats, but all commodities are of concern to many producers. Quite a few buyers are covered for the rest of the crop year on old crop oats, but they continue to look for 2021 product on sales with movement into early 2022.  New crop milling oats have been trading around $3.50-$4.00/bu FOB farm. Price is dependent on movement and time frame. We always remind growers that if you spray your oats with glyphosate, you are potentially taking away marketing options. Touch base with your grain merchant to see what pre harvest chemicals are best for use on your oats.  If you have some feed oats, prices have been ranging between $2.50 to $3.25/bu FOB farm, also depending on bushel weight. Feed buyers like a nice heavy oat.

The green lentil market has shown a bit more interest this week.  There is some interest in old crop large green lentils up to 38c/lb FOB, while new crop hovers around 36c/lb FOB.  For those with small green lentils in the bins, showing an offer might get some attention this week.  Red lentils are mostly sideways at 32c/lb picked up. There will be areas of the province where yields will be affected by drought this year, however, analysts figure that will be offset by the lack of disease pressure. There has been some caution on both the buyer and seller end in the trade of lentils lately. There are some constraints being taking into consideration such as the uncertainty of the lentil crops and extreme high prices on ocean freight. The latest news about stock limits in India has had no serious impacts so far but it is another consideration for importers even though stocks in India are low right now.

Green pea prices have gained a bit of traction this week with prices up to $10.00/bu.  Yellow pea prices are also hanging around $10-$10.50/bu in some areas. With the low carry-in of supplies and the smaller seeded acres compared to last year, bids are likely to remain linear until harvest is well underway. There are some concerns with the smaller seeded pea acres in both Canada and the US, however it hasn’t generated a response from the market as buyers seem content with their coverage for now. This could change if we see the crop declining due to drought. Reports are coming in that there seems to be a mix of extremely poor pea crops and some good-looking crops. An additional factor to consider whether pea prices will rally is if and when China re-enters the market.

As new crop production concerns continue to mount, ICE canola futures respond by running up into the nosebleed section. Obviously, final production numbers won’t be known for certain until the harvest dust settles. However, that doesn’t tame the market from speculating. Not surprising the general theme in the trade is towards sliding production expectations. Most forecasts seem to be lining up confidently under 20 MMT, with a wide range on their wagers. One thing is certain though, new crop carryout inventory will be firmly under 1 MMT. Much of the price direction in canola will be dictated by global soybean and global vegetable oil markets. That said, given any run up in either of those markets and canola is poised to take any opportunity to follow. Cash delivered bids are bumping up against $21/bu delivered and new crop isn’t far behind.

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.

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