The mustard market continues to show strength throughout the winter on both new and old crop. In the latest news, oriental prices and buyer interest have started to perk up as we see bids push closer to the mid-thirties on new crop. Regarding oriental, there is still a current premium for Forge type over Cutlass and/or Vulcan if you happen to be looking at seed and wondering which direction to go. If you are growing oriental and looking for a contract, we can likely find some buyers willing to listen to what value you’re looking for. Brown mustard prices remain in the high 30’s with trades at $0.38 to $0.39/lb hitting the books on old and new crop product. Yellow mustard prices have moved the least but are still at attractive numbers with buyer bids at $0.42/lb on old and new crop product. The big outstanding question will be seeded acres, as reports have so far varied a bit; from sideways to doubling. In office we are hearing many growers indicate, despite very strong prices, we may have trouble getting much elbow space on acres as weed control and dry conditions persist as the main issues of concern.
No new stories to tell in the pea market this week. Yellow stocks are tight and likely will be again for the 2021/2022 marketing year which bodes well for pricing. What we did see last week was a couple of green pea bids at $10.75/bu delivered. This seemed to be short lived and is tough to find this week. Target pricing for some green pea growers seems to be $10.00/bu picked up and most of our buyers are sitting at $10.00/bu delivered right now. Yellow peas are still holding strong, due to short supplies and product continues to trade at $11.00/bu picked up. We have some new crop bids at $9.50/bu delivered with an act of God, which is also a good starting point to get 10-20bu/ac on the books. New crop green peas are holding at $9.00/bu picked up, while new crop maple peas have bids of $9-9.50/bu picked up. As mentioned, several times, China is the source keeping the pea market strong. If China continues steady buying into next year, prices will stay strong and supplies as a result will remain tight. However, political tensions can change on the drop of a dime. We recommend locking in some bushels of new crop yellow peas at these historically high values.
Not much new to report on the forefront of the barley world. Prices remain around the same as previous weeks with the availability to get anywhere from $6.00 – $6.25/bu FOB farm depending on location. The malt market demand seems to be even quieter, with not much to report on trades or offers going out. Our thoughts would be: maltsters are hanging tough so they don’t have to overpay just to keep up with current feed values… when you can source out $5.00/bu new crop feed, it makes it hard to be competitive and still make a profit. As we slowly start creeping closer to 2021 seeding there might not be a huge push from buyers to be locking up new crop. Given the time length, many sellers may want to sit back and address what they are seeing out there. If you are sitting on the fence right now and wondering if you should lock some product in at a $5.00/bu value, our opinion is, get at least 25% on the books. After all, given the price of seed and inputs, locking in at $5.00/bu FOB puts you into the green. Given the current market values on all commodities, having some of the farm hedged with new crop contracts is a great idea. At the end of the day locking in some feed barley is a lot less risky than some of the other crops and you’re getting a great price as well. As always if you are needing seed or any additional information on new and old crop contracts reach out to a Rayglen rep today!
The wheat market is holding steady for another week. Feed wheat prices continue to trade between $7.00 to $7.75/bu FOB depending on freight with the best values seen in Southwest Sask. and Alberta. The milling CWRS market has been very strong as well with bids for 12.5% protein ranging between $7.70 to $7.90/bu delivered depending on delivery month. For 13.5% protein, prices range between $7.85 to $8.05/bu delivered, again depending on delivery month. The new crop durum market has been at a bit of a standstill with prices ranging from $8.25/bu to $8.50/bu FOB farm in the Southeast part of Saskatchewan. Old crop durum bids have been indicated between $8.50 to $9.00/bu delivered in a variety of areas.
Chickpea markets were seeing a bit of a bump last week, but this has not turned into the rally everyone was hoping for. Rumors of a second tender have been squashed and interest levels on the buy side have dropped about $0.02/lb. Talks of a 24% reduction in acres for the coming season have no one flinching as export numbers are low and stock still high. In global news, India reported an estimated 5% increase in production from last years Rabi crop, but not everyone is on board with that evaluation. Late dry weather and recent price gains have some believing that the increase is not quite as reported. All eyes are on export markets as that is what will bring some life back to chickpeas. Old Crop #2 Kabuli bids are around $0.30/lb FOB farm May-June and new crop still at $0.27-$0.28/lb FOB farm Sept.-Dec. movement. Sample/feed chickpeas are unchanged at $0.19-.20/lb dependant on downgrading factors. If Desi’s are in your rotation, give us a call as this market is more specific and requires some digging.
Flax prices remain sideways this week with nearby movement in the $22.00/bu FOB farm range, while further out delivery is bid at $23.00-24.00/bu. New crop flax sits at $16.00-$16.50/bu picked up with act of God for delivery in 2021. Analysts expect more Canadian flax acres to be seeded this year, however how much of an increase is still unknown. We suggest getting some product hedged at these very attractive new crop values. Now switching gears to world markets, 2021 acreage is still uncertain in the Black Sea region, if there is an increase of 5%, paired with 5-year average yields, we could see their production rise by 23%. This may not bode well for values either. Flax deliveries have slowed the last couple weeks and if there are large amounts of Black Sea supplies tied up at the Chinese border, then spot prices could go back down. The trouble is that the timing of their release is up in the air. With these record high prices there could be other factors we are not aware of as well.
Lentils are mixed this week, with some markets on the rise and others on the descent. Red lentils had a positive start with bids pushing to $0.31/lb delivered in Northwest and Southwest Sask. This warrants $0.30/lb FOB farm in many locations. New crop reds hold steady, now priced at $0.27/lb with AOG or $0.28/lb on a deferred delivery contract. Most buyers have adjusted their large green lentil bid as they feel there is more product available than originally thought. The bid for #2 large greens currently tops out at $0.38/lb delivered for April/May/June movement. Word out of India is that the pigeon pea crop is struggling; this may cause an increased need for green lentils in the near term. The increase may be limited due to logistics as we are already booking lentils into June, but it is still something to keep an eye on. New crop large greens are trading $0.31/lb basis #2 grade and $0.29/lb for X3 grade, FOB farm, with an act of God.
This week has brought modest gains in the canola futures markets after a steep dive at the end of last week. At time of writing, May futures are at $756.50/MT which is down from $764.50/MT at the same time last week. July futures followed a very similar trend and are at $720/MT, compared to $730.50/MT last week. Last week’s testing of limit down losses mostly came from speculators dropping their long positions as canola was beginning to look overbought. Weakness in soy contributed to the bearish market movements. As mentioned above, we have seen a small recovery this week across the futures board. This is reflective of the fact that on farm canola stocks are becoming very tight and crush margins are still high enough for domestic crushers to keep buying. Gains in soy this week also helped push canola back up. Local basis levels are still very aggressive for both old and new crop and November futures are still holding around $604/MT, down just slightly from last week.
Canaryseed is very much the same as last week. We continue to see the market holding strong, but buyers are starting to push out their movement windows for the highest bids. Prompt movement is becoming very hard to find, if you can find it at all, with most posting April-May 2021. Bids this week are sitting at $0.32/lb FOB farm, which is still a very attractive value. If you are needing quicker movement, talk to your merchant about posting an offer slightly under $0.32/lb as this may catch some buyer interest. New crop values are still sitting at $0.28/lb FOB farm, with an act of God. Now, with the acres projected to go up, getting 10bu/acre on the books doesn’t sound like a bad idea. Seed is also still available if you are looking at getting into canary this year or wish to update variety.
We are still seeing attractive spot prices on old crop milling oats with bids around that $4.25/bu picked up on the farm mark. Perks are seen as bin location moves closer to Manitoba. New crop pricing remains solid for this upcoming year with roughly $3.60/bu picked up for the last quarter of the year and around $4.00/bu picked up for the beginning of 2022. We should get a bit of a preview as to seeding intentions once the crop insurance numbers come out. It will be interesting to see if there is much of a change in oat acres with strong new crop prices, like barley, looking to steal the show. On the feed side, we continue to see trading done at $3.50-$4.00/bu picked up on the farm for heavy product.
US soybean futures are surging with the standard profit-taking cycles of institutional traders. The fundamental underpinnings of the market remain bullish. Brazil is struggling with poor harvest quality. Chinese Dalian soybean futures hit record highs amid continuing reports of African swine fever. US domestic monthly soybean crush rates continue to defy any demand rationing theories. Local soybean bids now hover around $16.00/bu picked up depending on location. The faba bean market remains the same and maintains focus on domestic feed demand. Feed faba bids are in the range of $8.00/bu FOB farm, location dependent. Dry bean market prices remain well supported. Future market direction will come from Mexico and Argentina harvests. New crop dry bean contracts are available at attractive price levels. Contact Rayglen to book your acres.
Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.