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Rayglen Market Comments – October 14, 2020

Flax prices are up slightly from last week, with some buyers showing bids at $16.50/bu FOB on brown varieties and up to $18.00/bu FOB on yellow. For the most part, bids are pushed into the new year for those values, but the odd trade is being done for Nov/Dec. Buyers have had some aggressive bids to meet export sales and with the low carry-over, 2020/21 supplies are projected to be tight again going forward. There are some unanswered questions about the size of the Russian / Kazakh crop, but for the time being, the rally in prices overseas has stalled out as the end of harvest season approaches. With these early strength in prices, we know that there is something happening in the market, but no one is reporting an actual disaster anywhere.

Stability in a market would typically be a good thing, but when talking chickpeas, we are all on the edge of our seats waiting for something to happen. News out of Argentina give initial reports of issues with the quality of the chickpea harvest. They are still a few weeks away from harvest, but this does give the ray of hope everyone is waiting for. Despite the uncertainty there is one thing that rings true, growers have waited this long and will continue to wait before moving chickpeas below their target prices. While buyers are more interested in purchasing, the bids remain the same. Jan-Feb bids for #2 Kabuli’s hit $0.30/lb FOB farm, but nearby remains $0.27-$0.28/lb FOB farm. Sample/feed bids at $0.14/lb FOB farm.

The yellow and maple pea market had a few prices bumps this week. Yellows saw bids up to $8.25/bu delivered to a couple areas within Saskatchewan, while maple peas traded at $9.00/bu picked up for movement into the new year. Green peas remain stable at $9.00/bu picked, but there is less grower interest at this price point and fewer trades being done. Right now, most of our export interest has been coming from China, which has been the major supporter in yellow pea bids. As farmers becoming more bullish, we may also see bids firm up into the new year as bin doors remain closed. As per reports, India still has not been a big player in the market, therefore, if anything changes and they start looking to import again, we can only expect the pea market to become more bullish. On the other hand, should India remain a non-player and China decides to step back, we could see values fall.

The oats market has been fairly quiet as of late as buyers have been mostly bought up in the nearby windows. We have a few buyers posting bids delivered out into Manitoba on a #2 milling oat at $3.70 to $3.80/bu into spring and summer months. If you are looking for a FOB farm price we can work that back for you, just touch base with your favorite merchant. If you have milling oats and want to move them this fall, we do have some options, but the prices likely work back to $2.60 to $2.95/bu range on farm pending location. Feed prices on the oats seem to have settled in at $2.25 to $2.50/bu range on farm but there has been the occasional opportunity to sell heavy feed oats at stronger levels. 

Canary seed continues to plant its flag and remain firmly entrenched, trading sideways again this week. That being said, most will take trading sideways at $0.30 – $0.31c/lb as a win on a commodity that historically bangs its head on the ceiling at those levels. On the export side, things have been quiet these last couple months as inventory was on the lighter side and product wasn’t off yet. Though, we may start to see export numbers creep up a bit as product is now in the bins and the price remains supported. There may be room to give on pricing moving forward, but at the same time the canary seed market can also be pretty finicky and cool down in a hurry when quotas are meet.

Planting delays in Brazil due to dry weather and labor disputes at Argentina crush plants has offered more strength to the soybean complex. US soybean harvest is well underway and could wrap up in early September if good harvest weather continues to hold. Local soybean bids now hover around $11.00-$11.50/bu picked up depending on location. Fabas bids are aligned with long term trading values at $7.50 -$8.00/bu for #2 export quality. Increased global competition and the reestablishment of typical global trade patterns will regulate our local faba bids. North American dry bean harvest is approaching completion. Common classes of beans are expecting large production increase this year, whereas specialty beans will see tighter production volumes. Dry bean demand still exists, and buyers will be interested in purchasing any new crop contract overages.  

Overall barley production and quality is a positive “glass half-full” situation this year, with most producers giving favorable reports for both. Feed barley bids are quite strong for this time of season and bids are plus/minus $5/bu FOB farm in SE AB and SW SK. Values start to drift closer to $4.50/bu FOB farm as you move east further away from feedlot alley. Malt bids are sparse and maintain a very narrow premium to feed bids, thus many producers are opting to sell feed. Casual reports indicate malt bids are near $5.00/bu delivered with small variety specific premiums.

Lentils remain solid this week as all varieties and colours either hold their value or see slight increases. Reds seem to have settled in between that 27 cent and 28 cent mark and likely won’t see much change until we hear what India is going to do with tariffs at the end of the month. Green lentils on the other hand have strengthened slightly with #2 large greens at 36 cents FOB farm for Nov/ Dec movement. Small greens also seen an uptick and are trading as high as 31 cents picked up in some cases. The Saskatchewan crop report states this year’s lentil crop yielded 1487lbs/acre compared to 1413lbs/acre last year and harvest is 100% complete compared to only 93% the year prior. The report did not say what this year’s grade breakdown was for the lentils but based on good harvest conditions and what we’ve seen so far, majority will likely be #1/#2 grade.

Wheat prices have continued to gain strength this week as some dryness in the US and Russia causes some concerns. In the Black sea, wheat prices continue to climb despite last year’s crop showing strong yield. This all comes after the USDA stayed neutral on wheat ending stocks in their latest report. Milling wheat is trading locally around the $6.75-$7/bu delivered range. On the feed side of the market, bids have gained strength and range from $5.50-$6/bushel FOB farm depending on location and movement timeframe.

November canola futures sit at $526/MT at time of writing. This is up slightly from the same time last week when they were at $525/MT. There was very little fluctuation in price over the past week, despite the USDA report coming out last Friday and dropping expected soybean acres slightly. There is a bit of carry into the January futures, which sit at $533/MT today. The next big report for Western Canada will be the StatsCan production report on December 3rd. That will play a large role in which way this market heads moving forward.

Once again, mustard prices remain in the same range as previous weeks. We have seen slight bumps over the past month on yellow and oriental, but reports continue of very sluggish shipping and demand from overseas, so bids remain basically flat for now. Bids today are sitting at $0.40/lb FOB farm for yellow; show us offers at $0.41 as they might be looked at for shipping in the new year. Brown sits at 30 to 31 cents/lb; again the 31 cents may be available for shipping further out. Oriental Forge sits at 27 to 28 cents depending on movement and cutlass is at 25 to 26 cents for new year shipping, both FOB farm. We are now creeping up on the end of October and it may be a good time to actually start new crop contracting soon. Call your merchant with offers and the latest in prices.

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.


Rayglen Market Comments – October 7, 2020

The prices for flax remain up from the usual seasonal trend with $16.00/bu FOB farm available for relatively quick movement. Yellow flax pricing is just north of $17.00/bu picked up and in light trade this week. Flax demand is expected to remain strong from China, the EU and the US and potential exports will be limited to the size of the Canadian flax crop. Earlier reports suggested that heavy rains in China had reduced their flax yields, however the majority of flax growing regions were not hit the hardest and the issue could be less serious than earlier indicated. The Black Sea region has some reports that their crop is going to be 10-15% less bountiful than last year, but far from an actual disaster. While there could be some upside to flax prices, those higher prices will likely start to discourage demand for Canadian supplies.

Chickpea bids in the last couple of weeks have strengthened for movement into the new year. Analysts question the sizing of the Canadian chickpea crop, but have little concerns about the quality. Some of the chickpea exports in the past have gone into markets that utilize lower quality, with better grades expected this year, that could also make it more difficult to export into new channels. The lower kabuli production in other countries could finally be the push that the North American crop needs to fill some of the demand. Bullish sellers will keep bids at bay even if supplies are comfortable.

This week yellow peas are getting a bit more buyer interest. Bids are being shown at $7.25 – $7.50/bu picked up on the farm with movement by the end of December. Green peas have not changed much in price from last week, with buyers still bidding at $9.00/bu picked up in the northernly areas and $8.50/bu range in the south. Western Canada has been seeing strong export pace, with more focus towards yellow peas, which is supporting the rise in current prices. Maple peas have been much slower in comparison with current pricing is at $8.25 – 9.00/bu picked up on farm. Currently, growers have slowed their selling since bin space isn’t the main topic anymore. As per reports, we can likely expect bids to become a bit more aggressive into the 2020/2021 marketing year to influence selling as farmers become more bullish.

For the most part, barley harvest is wrapped up across the Canadian prairies with the exception of a few growers just finishing up. The spread in value from feed to malt remains minimal and some growers are opting to sell their malt into feed markets for movement advantages and an available sale. Feed barley has been trading between $4.00 to $4.50/bu FOB depending on location and movement. Stronger bids are seen if you can live with shipment in the Jan-Mar 2021 period and/or the closer you are to feed lot alley in southern Alberta. As for malt barley prices, reports suggest they have been sitting around $5.00/bu delivered in on 2 row Metcalfe and Copeland varieties if you are able to find a bid. Our malt buyers remain quiet, but have indicated we may see some bids in the coming weeks.

Oat markets remain steady this week with little to no spread between milling and feed bids in many cases. Milling markets continue to be indicated at $2.50/bu FOB for a large part of Saskatchewan, with the exception of the SE corner, where we’ve seen some product bid up to $3.00/bu FOB. For comparison, feed oats, so long as they are heavy and dry, are seeing bids in the $2.50/bu range as well. We hope that the development of new markets such as the oat milk market will provide more opportunities and better values to milling quality oats, but so far that remains amiss. This year’s increased acreage and higher yields may subdue a price hike near term.

Canary continues to hold steady again this week as pricing remains firmly entrenched at $0.30 – $0.31/lb picked up on the farm with movement between Oct – Jan. If you look back on canary pricing since 2016, there is a pretty hard ceiling halting this commodities movement past $0.31/lb. Is this the year to burst that bubble? There are reports of US millet issues that have already pushed red millet past canary pricing, with white millet on the rise as well. That being said, this is a commodity that can turn on a dime as there is only so much need. Only time will tell.

Soybeans continue to rally to levels last set in 2018 based on dry conditions delaying planting in Brazil, strong exports to China and bullish expectations of Fridays (Oct 9th) USDA report. Local soybean bids now hover around $11.00/bu picked up depending on location. Fabas bids are aligned with long term trading values at $7.50 -$8.00/bu for #2 export quality. Increased global competition and the reestablishment of typical global trade patterns will regulate our local faba bids. Dry bean harvest progress varies across the North American growing areas, but generally speaking is 75% complete.  Some classes of dry bean (navy, pinto) will have sharp production increases year over year, whereas white bean production appears to be relatively flat year over year. Dry bean demand still exists, and buyers will be interested in purchasing any new crop contract overages.  

After a slight dip earlier in the week, November canola futures bounced back and are up from last week’s prices. November futures are sitting at $525.30/MT at time of writing, compared to $520/MT at the same time last week. There is a bit of carry in the market for the January futures as they are at $531.70/MT, compared to $528/MT a week ago. The strength in the market appears to be coming from palm oil and soy oil price increases as well as a decrease in farmer selling as harvest begins to wrap up in most areas.

Lentils markets continue to strengthen this fall and now many buyers are starting to show interest in small green lentils. The most common bid for small greens is 28 cents/lb picked up on farm, but we are hearing some better delivered prices depending on location in the province. Large green lentils remain strong with prices at 35 cents per pound for on farm pickup, while red lentils remain stable at 27-28 cents. Buyers are also looking for French greens and Beluga lentils with some strong indications. All in all, lentil markets seem to be strong at this time. Keep an eye on these markets as we approach the end of the month, this is when India will revisit their tariff protocol.

Wheat markets have had 3 strong days to start the week with both CWRS and CWRW gaining strength; on Monday both wheats had hit a 5 and 8 month high. Wheat markets are on the move due to weather concerns for planting in the US, Russia and Kazakhstan. Markets are also being affected by reports the USDA is expected to cut the 20-21 wheat carryover forecast, as well as world inventories are likely to shrink. On the feed side of things price are in the $5.25-5.75 depending on location. Low protein wheat was also been trading around the $6.75-$7.00/bu delivered range.

Mustard prices remain fairly flat as buyers still report slow overseas demand at this point. There has not been enough news to shift the price greatly one way or another this week, but we are seeing a slight increase in some brown and oriental for further out movement. Bids today are sitting at $0.40/lb FOB farm for yellow; show us offers at $0.41 as they might be looked at for shipping in the new year. Brown sits at 30 to 31 cents/lb; again the 31 cents may be available for shipping further out. Oriental Forge sits at 27 to 28 cents depending on movement and cutlass is at 25 to 26 cents for new year shipping, both FOB farm. Even though October is just beginning, it may be time to actually start thinking about new crop contracting soon. Call your merchant with offers.

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.

 


Rayglen Market Comments – September 30, 2020

As updated reports on production estimates keep rolling in, it looks like green pea supplies will be up about 12% this year and yellows down 2%. Looking overseas, the Black Sea region is also expected to have lower production numbers due to reduced yields; this should bring less export competition for the Canadian crop, causing prices to firm up a bit. Currently, green pea targets have hit at $9.00/bu picked up, but buyers are actively showing bids closer to $8.50/bu. Yellow peas are trading at $7.00 – 7.25/bu picked up and maple peas have been trading at $8.00 – 9.00/bu picked up, with the latter being shown in south east Sask. India has also seen increased pricing on their yellow peas with stocks being limited, as per reports. We will have to see if this will end up affecting India’s import tariffs or not.

Feed prices have been holding strong in the wheat/durum markets this week. We have seen bids at $5 – 5.55/bu picked up. The stronger bids are being shown in south west Sask and with movement into the new year. We still have options for October – December delivery if you are needing cash flow before years end. The milling wheat market has been a bit quiet on the trading side, with bids around $6.50/bu delivered based on higher protein levels (13.5%). There is pricing on lower protein wheat, however, moving into the feed market is almost showing better/equal pricing opportunities. Milling durum is priced around $7.50 – 7.75/bu delivered.

The malt barley market remains a dead horse this week, not coming as a surprise to most. We have very few bidders on malt quality at present and suggest growers use firm targets to capture any potential buyers’ interest. Most recent indications suggest producers target the $5.00/bu delivered to plant range on 2 row Copeland and Metcalfe varieties. Although not a slam dunk, we may catch someone in need of product, just waiting on the right offer to come along. On the feed barley side of things, markets remain strong and trading between $4.00 to $4.50/bu picked up depending on location. You can see higher prices for pushed out movement into the Jan-Mar 2021 timeframe. As is usually the case, the closer you are to feedlot alley in Southern Alberta, the better the price will be.

Another week of patiently watching chickpea markets and waiting for a swing. There was a bit of activity from the buyer’s side this week to purchase in the deferred months. Early 2021 values for #2 Kabuli’s hit $0.30/lb FOB farm, but nearby remains $0.27-$0.28/lb FOB farm. The problem with this carry is that if a grower signs up for January movement and the nearby ends up getting support, they kick themselves for selling to soon, so instead, we wait. Feed/sample values are $0.12-$0.13/lb FOB farm and the desi market remains radio silent.

Flax pricing remains strong again this week with firm bid at $15.00/bu picked up before the new year.  If you have milling quality, you could capture up to $15.50/bu FOB for a Jan/Feb type movement. Yellow flax has firmed up as well, now sitting in that $16.00/bu picked up range. These flax prices, early into harvest, reflect lower supply in the Black Sea region. The market is depending on fresh supplies and export destinations are sending clear signals with these values. However, this could prove challenging as Canadian supplies will not be able to meet all the demand coming from the major importers. The unknown is when this market will hit the price ceiling.

Canary seed harvest should be wrapping up across Saskatchewan this next little bit, as it’s estimated that there is roughly only 20% un-harvested. This should put us well ahead of the 10-year average. How is the crop fairing? Well, from reports that we are hearing, things sound promising, but the question that always plagues this commodity is the disparage in reporting. There are some that actually peg this crop to be upwards of 200,000 MT, a vast difference from roughly 159,000 MT that is floating out there right now. Either way, we continue to see pricing hold stead at 30-31c/lb FOB for movement within Oct – Jan. Price support is holding for this commodity and stems from the weaker CDN dollar, US millet crop shortfalls and possibly the confusion in expected harvest numbers.

Oats prices are sideways this week with milling bids around $2.50/bu FOB farm in most areas of the province; this doesn’t put a milling oat much better priced than a feed oat right now. If your farm is located in southeastern Sask we have had some milling bids catch $3/bu picked up on yard for fall movement. If you’re not in a hurry to move product the bids tend to get better into 2021 and you can put an extra quarter a bushel on your price waiting until spring as a viable option to lock in as well. We can see the finish line for harvest this year, but the north has been struggling with spotty rain dragging things out. Harvest pace had been wild, but it really has slowed down in the past couple weeks.

After a steady decline in canola futures to start the week, markets have rebounded in a big way today. November futures are up $8.40/MT today alone, placing them at $520.40/MT, which is up about $1 from the same time last week. Today’s big increase comes from the USDA reporting a large decline in US stocks of soybeans, corn and wheat when compared to a year ago. US soybeans stocks are down 42% compared to Sept. 1, 2019 and are sitting at 523 million bushels. This is a good chance for those that missed getting some solid futures prices locked in before last week’s slip.

Lentils continue to be the sought-after commodity this week, with the bright spot being small greens. We are starting to see them gain some strength after trailing behind so far this fall and bids are now in the 27-28 cents FOB farm range. Large green lentils remain strong as well with trades taking place at the 34-cent mark and even some firm offers triggering at 35 cents for #2 quality. Red lentils continue to trade in that 27cent range for October through December movement and the odd buyer willing to entertain 28 cents picked up for Jan-Mar shipment. In the last week buyers have also been looking for French lentils and Beluga lentils. The last Saskatchewan crop report had lentil harvest 99% complete, 11% ahead of last year. With lentil harvest wrapped up we are hearing from buyers that quality is mostly #2 or better for all categories of lentils.  If you still have poor quality lentils in the bin this maybe the time to get rid of them as the pet food market will need product at some point to fill their rations.

It looks like the mustard harvest has wrapped up well ahead of the usual average, but markets remain flat as buyers digest the outcome here in Saskatchewan and Alberta. This will certainly lead to a good quality of mustard this year, with a high percentage grading #1. There has not been really strong demand behind export business, and this is keeping the bids firm, but stuck in this trading range for now. Bids today for mustard are sitting at $0.40/lb FOB farm for yellow, $0.305/lb FOB farm on brown, Oriental Forge at $0.275/lb and cutlass at $0.255/lb FOB farm. Even though October is just beginning, it may be time to actually start thinking about new crop contracting soon. Call your merchant with offers.

Despite harvest pressure and easing Chinese demand, soybean futures are up strongly based on the recent USDA stocks report. Year or year inventories are down sharply and have spurred the market up dynamically. Local soybean bids now hover around $11.00-$11.50/bu picked up depending on location. Still good opportunities to contract new crop fabas at $7.50 -$8.00/bu for #2 export quality. Aussie faba bids are down and now aligned with long term market ranges. This will mean more competition for our fabas into Egypt and thus moderate our local bids. Some classes of dry bean (navy, pinto) have sharp production increases year over year, whereas white bean production appears to be relatively flat year over year. Dry bean demand still exists, and buyers will be interested in purchasing any new crop contract overages.  

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.


Rayglen Market Comments – September 23, 2020

Flax demand from China, the EU and US look to remain strong and with low Canadian carry-over, prices have crept up slightly this week. Trades are being done upwards of $15.00/bu picked up in the yard for milling quality brown flax, while yellow flax prices perk up to around $16.00/bu FOB. Favorable weather over the last week has allowed flax harvest to advance nicely, so we expect more product coming to the table shortly. The Black Sea region exports have fallen off due to lower supplies, meaning the market will be looking for fresh supply in other areas. Bids are reflecting the market demand, however, Canadian supplies will not be able to meet all the demand, so values are likely to remain strong with some possible upside.

The oat harvest is underway with just over 15% in the bins as of the middle of this month. Early indications suggest that the volume is still set to outpace last year by a bit but there is still the question mark on quality. The early stuff that’s off looks to be nice but the later crop that was subject to the heat with no rain could prove to be interesting. Once more numbers are gathered, we’ll see how things are really shaking out. Right now, milling quality prices are hovering around that $2.55 – $2.80/bu FOB farm with movement in the new year. If you happen to be near the SE Sask/Man boarder and product is off, call your Rayglen merchant as you may be scratching $3.00/bu FOB for quicker movement. On the feed side, prices are ranging in that $2.50 – $2.75/bu FOB farm.

The feed barley market has really been taking off this last week, but unfortunately the same cannot be said in malt barley markets. Currently we have very few bidders and/or options on malt barley contracts and suggest targets as a possible way to catch someone’s attention. Rumors suggest $5.00/bu delivered to plant is attainable on Copeland and Metcalfe varieties, but so far, we’ve been unable to corroborate them. The feed barley market has a tight trading range this past week with most bids sitting between $4.00-$4.50/bu picked up pending location. A decent carry in value is seen for deferred Jan-Mar 2021 shipment for those who can hold product into the new year. Bids increase as FOB locations move Southwest, with the highest values seen in Southern AB close to feedlot alley.

Bids have firmed up in the pea market this week since StatsCan came out with lower production estimates. Yellow peas have been trading at $7.00/bu picked up, green peas are priced at $8.90 – 9.00/bu delivered and maple peas are seeing bids at $8.00-$8.25/bu picked up. China’s continued steady buying is holding the yellow pea market up as well and helps contribute to these stronger markets. If the new StatsCan estimates are correct about production, then our yellow pea supplies will end up being a lot tighter than expected which could bring a positive affect to pricing this marketing year. As we know, green pea acres were up this year, but with lower production estimates our supplies should sit at more comfortable levels. That being said, any price increase will likely be more subdued when compared to yellow peas.

With chickpea harvest reportedly 69% complete, StatCan has once again adjusted their yields upwards to 30bu/acre. This translates to production on a whole being 5% below last year, again, rendering a large carry for 2020/2021. Despite that, there is a bit of a firmer tone as reports of smaller caliber chickpeas are being harvested; quality seeming to be decent thus far. The overseas market is putting some weight into the results of the Argentinian harvest, but this will not be reported till November. It feels like there are several different ways this market can move right now but from a grower’s perspective it needs to improve before the bins open again. Bids for a #2 Kabuli sit around $0.27-0.28/lb FOB farm and sample grade remain at $0.12/lb FOB on average.

Wheat prices have smartened up a bit here in recent weeks, with feed bids back touching $5 to $5.50/bu in most areas. Prices depend greatly on the area your farm is located and whether you want product unloaded now or in the winter (Jan-March); the latter of the two is bringing a solid carry. How solid? Well, usually the carry from fall into winter is a few bucks a tonne, but a few buyers have said they are showing up to $10/MT right now, which is pretty solid. Milling wheat prices moved up to $6.50 delivered in range on a #1 CWRS with 13.5% protein. If you have a target in mind on your wheat talk to your preferred merchant about what you are looking for and we can see what works. We have a few options on low protein #1 wheat as well at values in between feed and milling.

Canola futures have dropped off this week after seeing a big jump upwards the previous two. This appears to be coming from large sales in soybeans early in the week due to concerns of a second COVID wave putting the global economy in trouble again. That being said, prices are still strong at a time of year when they usually push yearly lows. November futures at time of writing are at $519.60/MT, down from $530/MT at the same time last week. The January futures do hold a bit of carry in them at $527/MT today, down from $536 at the same time last week.

The canary seed market continues to ride a bit of a hot hand and there is not much right now that will get in the way and bring this market down. Product has been trading between $0.30 – $0.31/lb picked up on the farm with movement pushed out till January. The feedback that we’ve been receiving is that overall product is looking good and bushels seem to be on par with a decent crop. That being said, canaryseed is a notoriously under reported and we, as well as analysts, can only make their best guess as to what’s out there. With tight carry and a decent crop, we should see this market supported in the near term.

As might be expected, soybean futures have pulled back based on harvest pressure and farmer sales to elevators and crushers. From a demand perspective, this dip in futures has spurred on further opportunistic purchases from international buyers. Local bids are in the range of $10.75-$11.00/bu picked up on farm. Dry bean harvest is in its early stages and average yields are being reported. Many dry bean prices are currently similar to what was available prior to planting; thus, the market remains well supported. New crop faba bean bids are in the range of $7.00-$7.50/bu picked up on farm for zero-tannin varieties. Tannin varieties may command a premium with early indication of $9/bu FOB farm for select tannin varieties.

Reports of tariffs coming off in India and stories of troubles with the India pigeon pea crop (likely some relation) have lentils prices continuing to climb this week. Green lentils are seeing a nice increase in price with large green lentils trading up to 32 cents FOB farm for a #2 and small greens sitting in the 26-27 cent range FOB farm. Red lentils aren’t moving up in price as quick as greens, but we are still gaining strength with #2s currently trading at 27 cents FOB farm. Rising markets are always hard to trade into as no one knows where the top is, but this makes a perfect time to push the market with targets and/or to start making incremental sales – selling into a rising market is never a bad thing!

Mustard markets continue to trend sideways. In conversations with buyers, foreign demand remains quiet and everybody seems to have a “steady as she goes” attitude so far. Many growers are now complete on their harvest and yields continue to be all over map depending on where late rains went. Everyone seems to be wondering if the lower seeded acres eventually will lead bids higher as time goes on. Bids today for mustard are sitting at $0.40/lb FOB farm for yellow, Brown @ $0.305/lb FOB farm, Oriental Forge @ $0.275/lb & Cutlass @ $0.255/lb FOB farm. While it is early, it may be time to actually start thinking about new crop contracting soon. Call your merchant with offers.

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.


Rayglen Market Comments – September 16, 2020

Chickpea markets are becoming the first topic of conversation again as we get into harvest. Initial numbers out show expected yield for the 2020 production will be, on average, 27 bu/acre but concern of the size of the chickpeas has come to light. Timely weather events are believed to have affected the sizing and it is predicted there will be a smaller scale of caliber in the production. End of season frost also occurred which will likely yield some damaged production. Globally, Indian prices are the highest since 2018 which indicates they have been eating through their stocks. This does not translate to a huge jump in value, but it does support a bullish market. Prices have not moved from last week, but chatter has increased, and it is decidedly a bull market with today’s levels being a potential bottom.

The most recent StatsCan report was released showing that the large pea crop that was expected to come off is closer to 4.3 mln tonnes versus the 5 mln tonnes originally thought. Yellow pea tonnage looks to be just under last years numbers with green pea tonnage at a 25% over. As such, we are starting to see a little more firming up in the yellow pea price at $6.75/bu delivered in with green peas staying soft around that $8/bu delivered. The maple pea market continues to flatline as prices hover around that $8.25/bu delivered in with a small pocket in the south east where you may be able to pick up $8/bu FOB farm. With pea harvest winding down keep an eye out for seasonal pattern pricing to edge up. Typically, around this time to November then with a hiatus till the new year, more so on yellows right now versus greens and maples, as supply is available for those two but demand isn’t.

Flax prices are holding strong for another week with bids in the $14.00-$14.25/bu range picked up in the yard depending on movement time frame and quality. The estimated acres are larger than last year, but the little carry-over of good quality flax has kept the prices supported. Another factor surrounding pricing will be if the flax yields are affected by the late July heat and early September frost. China will be increasing their flax imports due to some damage from heavy rains so there will be some pull on Canadian supplies. Russia and Kazakhstan flax yields are still the biggest unknown. However, there seems to be limited selling pressure out of those areas which suggests lower availability.  There are opportunities for quick movement on flax so once harvested, make sure to get samples into us

Mustard markets maintain values this past week despite StatsCan’s correction upwards of 2bu/acre on production to an average of 18.2 bu/ac. The reported fewer acres seeded this year is the concern and the factor that could drive buyer bids higher. In addition, buyer demand has not waivered and ending stocks maintained averages at 60,000 MTS. Harvest progress is ahead of the average at this point and quality is not a concern. Bids today for mustard average through to March as follows: Yellow @ $0.40/lb FOB farm, Brown @ $0.305/lb FOB farm, Oriental Forge @ $0.275/lb & Cutlass @ $0.255/lb FOB farm. While it is early days, this crop is believed to be a front runner in producers minds for increased acres next year; keep this in mind for your planning!

Wheat harvest is well on its way with a recent report suggesting 83% complete which compares to similar numbers on other cereals. Yield reports have been a quite a mix across the province though, as we hear numbers from 30 – 60 bushels per acre. All in all, bids and delivery on wheat (milling and feed) have seen slightly better quotes this week: feed values now sit around $4.75 to $5.35/bu FOB farm for Oct-Dec delivery, while milling bids hover at $6.25/bu delivered plant range depending on location and movement period. We have also seen some lower protein product (12.5%) trading at very attractive levels in central SK. Please call for details on this program.

Production estimates were released for September and lentils were up even more, with StatsCan showing an increase of 36% from last year. A big jump indeed, but so far these numbers have yet to affect pricing. This week #2 large green lentils are catching buyer’s attention and we’ve been trading at 30 cents picked up on farm quite consistently. There has been a bit of questioning on where this strength is coming from and it seems that some buyers are filling a short. Therefore, once filled, we may see some prices soften a bit again. Red lentils have been holding their price at 25 cents picked up and possibly a bit higher if movement is pushed out. As per reports, India’s demand has softened, however, sales are still filling into other destinations which is supporting the market.  Small green lentils haven’t sparked as much interest in comparison, but we do have bids at 24 – 25 cents being shown.

Barley markets showing some strength this week with price moving up around 10 cents per bushel. A few buyers still have September movement available, but for the most part Oct-Dec is quoted. A small premium is seen for Jan-Mar delivery windows. Buyers are suggesting that price increase maybe short lived as once sales are covered, price will slip again. These suggestions make sense when you look at the StatCan numbers released on the September 14, showing a gain of 200,000 tonnes over last year’s ending stock and 300,000 tonnes over 18/19 ending stocks. South east and North East Saskatchewan barley is trading @ $3.75-$4.00/bu, Southwest and West central $4.00-$4.30 and Northwest $3.75-$4.00bu.

Canary seed prices continue to be very strong this week. Prices are up as high as 30 cents FOB on October to November movement now. We are starting to get yield reports on canary into the office. Average seems like a good way to describe it at this point with most reports in the 20’s bushel per acre in a lot of cases. This year’s supply will likely remain tight and support prices at this point from the looks of it. Call your merchant on movement options as we may be able to ship earlier than October to November.  

The oats market is pretty weak these days with milling bids around $2.60 to $2.75/bu picked up in many areas, but movement pushed into next summer. Feed bids are wide ranging from $2.25/bu to $2.75/bu range depending on area and quality, but the feed movement is significantly faster than milling and possibly would allow bins to free up, or bags to empty, within 3-4 weeks. Waiting on milling movement to next summer for little to no premium doesn’t make a ton of sense based on today’s values. Hopefully we see milling rates climb up a bit after we break free of harvest pressure and yield numbers get a little more accurate to how the crop actually ran and not just projections.

Soybean futures caught their breath yesterday after lower August crush numbers. Today is a new day and soybean futures have staged another leg-up fueled by continued Chinese demand and an announcement by the US EPA. EPA announced it will hold refiners to account on renewable inclusion rates. This has direct impact on corn consumption, but as it said “corn floats all boats” and the commodities board turned green today. Local bids are in the range of $10.75/bu picked up on farm. Dry bean harvest reports are in the early stages and average yields are being reported. We continue to get dry bean buying inquiries from a well-supported but not panic driven market. New crop faba bean bids are in the range of $7/bu picked up on farm for zero-tannin varieties. Tannin varieties may command a premium with early indication of $9/bu FOB farm for select tannin varieties.

Canola futures have jumped up sharply today after seeing small losses yesterday. Those losses came from speculators booking in profits and taking their risk off the table. End user demand appears to be driving prices up and this type of price strength at harvest might be a sign of strength to come for the rest of the crop year. November canola futures are sitting at $530.20/MT at time of writing while January futures are $536.90/MT. There is a bit of carry into March/May futures but a slight decline into July. As always, keep an eye on local basis levels and those deferred positions to find that little bit extra.

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.


Rayglen Market Comments – September 9, 2020

The effects of early frost that touched most of western Canada are still yet to be seen. Specifically, on canola, reports suggest this frost could prove to be harmful in a few areas where temperatures dropped below minus 5 degrees Celsius and the crop was still standing. Luckily, many areas have canola swathed now and damage should be limited. We have seen bids perk up a touch this week due to a weaker Canadian dollar, strong soyoil markets and presumably some weather instability. Today, bids range between $10.25 to $11.50/bu depending on which area of the province you are in and delivery timeframe. The highest bids are seen for Jun-Jul 2021 delivery in west central SK. Please call your Rayglen merchant for a firm bid on your farm.

The pea market remains quiet into this week and some classes have even softened a bit more. Yellow peas are being bid up to $6.75/bu delivered plant, greens came down to $7.50 – $8/bu and maple peas remain at the $8/bu picked up mark. Yellow peas seem to have hit their lows, with hope bids will firm up later into the marketing year. Green peas, however, seem to keep slipping and buyer interest is lacking. Green peas are not likely to see the increase that we are expecting in yellows. As per reports, India’s yellow pea and desi pea prices continue to rise due to shrinking supply. This is where we could see some positivity in the yellow pea market further into the year.

Flax prices remain strong this week. With little carry-over, prices are in the $14.00-$14.25/bu range picked up in the yard. Flax supplies for 2020/21 are estimated to be larger than last year, of course considering any impact of frost this week. There is potential for strong exports this coming year to draw supplies down to the 2019/20 levels. China will likely need to increase their flax imports as there are reports that indicate damage due to heavy rains and we are seeing those prices firm up. While most of the Canadian flax crop is still in the field, the US harvest is well advanced. Flax prices are also edging up in Europe due to limited selling pressure from Russia. There is potential for price increases on Canadian supplies going forward.

Chickpeas saw a bit of frost this week but the hope from the market is that anything that might have been affected was already desiccated. There is still an air of uncertainty on the direction of chickpea value as we teeter on harvest and will get a full picture of quality and quantity from this year’s production. Acres were down but are the environmental factors combined with that enough to push the market up? Spot trades for large kabuli’s sitting at $0.27/lb FOB farm for a #2 and so far, no carry for further out delivery. Feed/sample values still at $0.12/lb.

Southern Alberta has pretty much wrapped up their barley harvest, so the onslaught moving into feedlot alley in Lethbridge has backed off. As such, we have seen a bit of a price pick up on barley. Prices are ranging in that $3.50 – $3.80/bu range for some quicker movement with the better pricing the closer to Alberta. If you are looking for stronger prices and are willing to defer delivery, give your Rayglen merchant a call. According to the most recent StatCan report, this year’s barley yield average is being pegged at 71.7bu/a which would make the second highest ever. That coupled with an increase in farm and commercial stocks has the potential for us to be loosening the belt a loop or two. What may possibly spell some relief comes in the form of an ongoing rift between Australia and China as China has imposed 80.5% duties on Australian barley imports. Could there be potential for Canadian barley to make some inroads??

Lentils prices see to gaining strength this week with increased bids in large green and small red lentils.  Markets for red lentils are trading as high as 25-26 cents delivered, while large greens are trading 28-29 delivered on offer. Small greens seem to be stable at 24 cents FOB farm again this week. Markets could be seeing an increase as Stats can released the project ending stocks.  The 20/21 ending stocks are pegged at 161,000 tonnes, which is 100,000 more than this year and 555,000 less than 18/19. A second consecutive year of low ending stock and high-quality lentils may have buyers trying to purchase now as an insurance policy just in case Australia’s and India’s crop have quality and quantity issues. Their crops have yet to be harvested and most of the Canadian crop is now in the bin.

Canary seed prices are holding up solidly in the harvest pressure season. Current bids from a few buyers are at 27 cent/lb picked up on farm for movement in early fall. You can add a cent on the price for movement into late fall or early winter timeline as well. We have not heard too many reports of yield on canary come through the office yet, but expectations are that a decent crop, like most others this year, was hurt by the hot and dry stretch that we saw in July. StatsCan keeps adjusting and readjusting past year’s production to try and account for canary seed that sits in the bins for multiple birthdays then strolls back into the marketplace when 30 cents appears like a Rip Van Winkle of the commodity world. All these updates so our carryover stocks do not appear as a negative number. This year’s supply will remain tight most likely to support prices but if you have bin space issues or bills to pay, we have options to move product in a timely fashion.

Soybean futures managed to stave off a profit taking tremble ahead of Friday’s WASDE report. Chinese demand clashed to offset any significant losses with purchases for their recovering national hog herd along with stockpiling to avoid another shortage. US soybean crop conditions continue to slide with reports of pod aborting due to heat stress. Local bids are in the range of $10.50 picked up on farm. Dry bean harvest is at its early stages across the US with the greatest progress in Washington and lesser amounts as you head east across the US. Dry bean markets remain well supported. New crop faba bean bids are in the range of $7/bu picked up on farm for zero-tannin varieties. Tannin varieties may command a premium with early indications of $9/bu FOB farm for select tannin varieties.

This week we have heard several more reports on mustard yields, and they are all over the map. It certainly depended on the showers this year and the late August heat and dryness seems to have brought expected yields down. Late flowering crops were especially hit hard it seems. Spot yellow is still generally trading at 40 cents/lb FOB farm for September/October movement, but if you need quick movement straight September movement is available today; this could change at any time. Brown sits at 30 cents for September movement still, so far. Oriental bids for short term movement continue to be a challenge with only a few options on the table. Call your merchant about an offer on oriental as a possible way to market it.

Feed wheat prices have stayed the course this week across the province. Bids range between $4.75-$5.25/bu FOB farm depending on location. Some buyers are looking to cover off a few loads for movement in the next week so if you need to free up a bin, now might be a good time to ship some out. We also have options going both east and west, so pricing is firm in more areas than usual. These bids are based on minimum 58 lbs and maximum 14.8% moisture wheat. We do have bids for wheat that does not meet those specs as well at discounted prices.

Milling oats pricing have stagnated a bit, which is not unusual during the harvest season. Prices range from $3.15-$3.35/bu delivered out into Manitoba on a 2CW grade. These prices are obviously more likely to work out of eastern Saskatchewan once freight is considered. On the feed side of the market, we have bids between $2.50-$2.75/bu FOB farm for minimum 42 lbs and maximum 14% moisture oats. As always, we have markets for off spec oats as well. Give us a call with your specs for a price picked up in your yard.

 

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.


Rayglen Market Comments – September 2, 2020

 

The pea market has started the year off at a slow pace with all pea markets trending softer. Yellow peas are trading around that $6.00/bu FOB farm mark maybe a touch higher in the right area. Green peas are trading at $8.00/bu delivered and maples are at $8.00 to 8.25/bu FOB farm. StatsCan is reporting that this will be one of our biggest, if not the biggest pea crop, the province has ever produced. This speculation is based off of their model-based satellite vegetation estimate, which will be revisited in two weeks. When talking to our clients it seems this estimation maybe a little high, as yield seems to be a mixed bag. At this point the markets have not seemed to reacted to the news. We will see if there are adjustments made on the next release from StatsCan.

 

Flax prices continue to remain consistent again this week as trading holds steady sitting around $13.50/bu FOB give or take a quarter or so depending on location. With some new crop coming off and in the bins, yield estimates have picked up to 25bu/a. An increase of over 7% from the previous five years offsetting the slight drop in seeded acres. Let’s hope we continue to see the good quality and bushels as harvest continues. If we look globally, USDA reports show that flax acres have decreased a bit and if they have an average crop, estimates show a double digit decrease in tonnage from the previous year. Drought looks to have caused some issues in Kazakh yields; how much is yet to be determined. Reports on new crop Russian flax is a bit of a question mark as well as no news has really surfaced swaying things one way or another. Overall, exports are tight right now and pricing seems to be a direct beneficiary.

 

The feed barley market has definitely quietened down over the last while due to harvest pressure, a yearly occurrence. The feed price has been ranging between $3.20 to $3.75/bu as FOB farm pricing. As we have mentioned numerous times, the closer you are to the southwest part of the province the better the price is normally. Limited tonnage opportunities will likely arise from time to time throughout the year so firm targets on the table can be effective. Malt barley contracts have been scarce with very few companies actually bidding. Current malt indications are high $4’s to low $5’s depending on malting type and variety; it helps to have samples in to get checked out to help generate firm bids.

 

As seems to be the norm, credible canary seed production data is a bit contradictory and ever changing. Despite last fall’s price spike and the subsequent brisk farmer sales, old crop on-farm inventories still exist predicated on holding on for 1 penny more. It has been proposed that we will carry in more inventory than previous years and that we will produce a little less despite higher seeded acres; ultimately resulting in an approximate 10% increase in total supply. Our Canadian currency has an impact on our local canary seed bid. The CAD has been rising steady since March and has kept pressure on the US equivalent conversion for canary seed. Market has subsided a little from the Oct-Apr run but still remains well supported at the cusp of new crop. Local bids continue to hover around 27 cents/lb picked up on farm.

 

Feed wheat prices have remained stable this week across the province. Bids are ranging between $4.75-$5.10/bu FOB farm. Movement is starting to be pushed out into the new year for some buyers and prompt movement is getting tough to find. Heat blast appears to be an issue in some areas that have moved into the wheat harvest. Some areas are seeing lower yields as well as bushel weight issues. Milling wheat bids have been down so far this crop year with #1, 13.5% protein bids falling below $6/bushel. We do have an opportunity delivered into north central Saskatchewan however, on a #1, 13% protein at $6/bu.

 

A stressful start to the week in lentils as Western Canada was waiting on the decision of the India import tariff, only to be disappointed as they reverted back to the 33% “tax” beyond Aug. It was hoped that their tariff would have continued at the reduced rate of 11% helping prop up prices but that is no longer the case for the remainder of 2020. Mixed reviews of harvest have been rolling in with drier areas taking a hit to yield (15bu/acre) and some areas reporting anywhere from 35-50 bu/acre. New this week are reports of wind damage cutting yields in all sorts of crops as harvest continues. Those exceptional early acres could make up for the later downfall and produce a better than average yielding year but time will tell. There is no doubt that lentils are still a crop that can take a turn with the shift of the market but for now it seems bids of $0.23-$0.24/lb on #2 reds and $0.27/lb on #2 large greens off the farm for shipment in 2020 are still available. Sentiment is these bids could slip as we continue through harvest and yield/quality reports roll in.

 

The chickpea market has not seen a lot of variation in pricing over the past couple of weeks. Both the US and Canada saw a decrease in acres which is supportive to pricing, but we have yet to see a larger change in the market. As per reports, we will have to see how the 2020 Russian crop turns out which is our competition into the Asian markets. However, with the acres being down in Canada and the US and as supplies are used up, we are expecting some price recovery to occur. Current chickpea pricing is at 27 cents/lb picked up on farm with most buyers wanting a max of 10% 7mms. We also have homes for feed chickpeas that have been moving at 12 cents/lb picked up.

 

Oats prices on a #2 milling oat delivered out into Manitoba show a range of $3.15/bu to $3.50/bu depending if you want to send the truck in October or May. Obviously there is still some decent freight costs that would need to be deducted off these values so the further east you are the better. We have some interesting opportunities for heavy feed oats still catching a FOB farm price north of $2.50, which would be as strong or stronger than milling prices in some areas. Standard feed oats bids hover in the low 2’s price range as the feed complex as a whole takes its standard punch to the throat at harvest time.

 

Soybeans saw some upside earlier this week when the charts reached an eight month high. However, that rally did not last long and this morning there is a weaker tone. New supply buying has taken a breather with the market expecting weather conditions to stabilize. That doesn’t mean there isn’t demand. The demand will likely stay fairly firm into the fall. We are seeing soybean prices up to $10.50/bu FOB while faba beans have backed off slightly to $7.00/bu also picked up. The market is establishing a range but there are some warnings that this rally may be overextended. If you have soybeans in the bin, now may be a good time to get some locked in.

 

This week we did get more yield reports on mustard and they are all over the map it appears. Yellow has been reported at less than 10 and some as high as 25 bu/ac. We have had some brown mustard harvested at 10 to reports of almost 30 bu/acre. If it’s not heat and moisture issues, its wind, lately the wind has been playing havoc with swaths. So this will be interesting to see how this pans out in the end with reduced acres being planted. Spot yellow is still trading at 40 cents/lb FOB farm for September/October movement. Brown sits at 30 cents for September movement still so far. Oriental bids for short term movement continue to be a challenge with only a few options on the table. Call your merchant about an offer on oriental as a possible way to market it.

 

Canola markets are currently well supported just prior to the bulk of canola being harvested. This is in large part due to canola futures following the escalating soybean futures. Market still waiting for early canola yield indications from canola country. With very few acres harvested yet, it is still anyone’s guess on average yield and if late season heat had a real yield impact. However, seems to be a consistently held belief that canola residual stocks from the 20/21 crop will shrink year over year. Local bids of $10.50/bu delivered are available. Call your Rayglen merchant to discuss.

 

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.


Rayglen Market Comments – August 26, 2020

Canaryseed is one of the commodities holding strength again this week. Consistent bids of 27-27.5c/lb picked up on the farm are the going rate for both old and new crop right now. If you’re sitting with some in the bins, there is still prompt movement options available and for those with product still in the field, you’re looking at Sept – Dec movement with potential to still obtain an act of God. If you’re looking to pad the pockets a bit more it never hurts to call your Rayglen agent to set up a firm target. This should prove to be an interesting year as ending stocks are lower than past years putting the pressure on a good harvest.

As of this morning, the canola market is trading around $492/MT on the November futures, a solid gain compared to a month ago when it was trading around $481.10 /MT. January futures offer some carry in value to $502/MT at time of writing. The rise in price right now could be related to yields that are expected to be slightly less than once thought. Reports suggest the heat wave in August contributed to canola crops not reaching full potential and pods not filling/ aborting seeds. We’ve also seen the soyoil market gaining strength which has been pushing canola values slightly higher.

Flax prices remain fairly strong for this time of year with prices up to $14.00/bu FOB. There are favorable signs of strong export demand for the upcoming year along with a small carry-over of supply. If the flax crop can make it through decent harvest weather, there will also be an improvement of quality from last year. Based on the USDA’s August seeded flax acres, we could see a decrease in reported acres. Still the biggest unknown is the Black Sea regions estimates of the Russian flax crop. Analysts imagine there to be reduced yields in the Kazakh area caused from drought. The flax prices are expected to hold as demand grows from China and Europe towards Canada.

Oats continues to trade soft again this week as the reported crop looks to be quite bountiful. As such, buyer pricing on old and new crop milling oats is hovering around that $2.50/bu range picked up on the farm, give or take a dime or so depending on location for 2020 movement. If you are able to hold out to the new year you will see a price perk around a quarter. If you have some feed oats weighing 43 pounds plus, the price is sitting around that $2.50 – $2.65 range. You heard right, feed oats, in many cases, are worth more than milling. An odd inverse not usually seen, which should be factored in when selling oats in the near term. 

This week there has not been much change in the pea market. Pricing is quiet as harvest is rolling along quite well in most areas. For the most part, pea yields have been pointing towards an ample increase in supply this year; this is also weighing on current prices. Yellow peas are trading at $6.00/bu picked up, green peas are $8.00/bu picked up and maple peas are also trading at $8.00/bu. To be able to avoid larger ending stocks for the 2020/2021 year, we are going to be counting on more peas being exported to China. China’s feed price has been increasing, which will hopefully support more Canadian peas being moved in, along with their continued demand from the fractionation market, as per reports. For right now, we can expect pea prices to stay quiet and any increases we may see will likely be later into the marketing year.

Harvest pressure seems to be affecting the barley market, as the weeks go on. Feed prices have been slipping every week now it seems, with current pricing trading at $3.15 – 3.75/bu. The stronger bids are being seen in South west Sask. Off the combine movement is harder to find, as many feed buyers are getting booked up for the coming months. There is a slight premium if you can hold on to the barley till early next year. Malt contracts have also been a bit harder to come by. We do have some pricing around $5.00/bu delivered for movement out to January – March.

Chickpea markets quite again this week as we wait for harvest to get underway. There has been adjustment on quality concerns or value and suspect we will remain in limbo until the first few acres are off. Feed chickpeas are still trading ranging from $0.10-$0.16/lb depending on down grading factors and there still seems to be a steady supply in the bins. No news on the Desi markets and trying to get a value out of the end user is similar to cracking the DaVinci code. Offers are the best route and values hover at the same levels as large Kabuli’s.

Chicago soybean futures continue on an upwards trend as they reach numbers not seen in a few months. Weather concerns in Arkansas as well as questions about the ability for late pods to fill across the Midwest is contributing to this price strength. Locally, soybeans are trading around $10/bu FOB farm for a #2 quality with no minimum protein levels required. On the faba bean side of the market, old crop bids have been minimal, but we have still been seeing new crop contracts come out around $8/bu FOB farm based on a #2 quality. There are discounted prices included in the contract for lower quality product.

Lentils prices are starting to feel a little bit of the typical harvest pressure as prices slide slightly since last week. Currently, reds lentils are trading at 24 cents FOB farm, while large greens sit in the 26-27 cent range for #2 quality, FOB farm. The early market outlook on lentils is that reds will see more downward pressure compared to greens. India has been heavily buying and we suspect the next big news that will affect this market is India’s decision on whether to increase tariffs. Taking advantage of a 24-cent market on another 5 to 10 bushel per acre may be a positive play this time next week if the Indian government does choose to increase the tariff. That being said, we may see prices on reds trail back either way due to amped up harvest pressure as more product becomes available. Barring any unforeseen circumstances, we do not expect lentil values to increase in the short term. 

Feed wheat prices have been weakening over the past few weeks and now, across Saskatchewan, most of our buyer bids have fallen below $5/bu FOB Farm. Comments around the province on wheat quality and quantity seem to be a bit of a mixed basket as always but overall decent with some issues of late heat causing weight & yield problems in some areas. The milling wheat bids around are no shining light either as many bids are sub $6/bu on a #1, 13.5 CWRS which is all in all pretty revolting. Once a bit of the harvest glut feeds through the Lethbridge feed market, we may see bids settle out a touch better in the winter as they often firm through the year.         

Reports are starting to slowly come in on mustard yields and at this point it is difficult to sum anything up as reports vary widely. It seems like showers absolutely controlled yields this year with drastic variances from producers only a few miles down the road from each other. It will be interesting to see how supply shakes out as mustard harvest gets fully underway. Spot yellow is still trading at 40 cents/lb FOB farm for August/September movement. Brown sits at 30 cents and oriental bids for short term movement continue to be a challenge with only a few options on the table. New crop mustard has basically finished for the year and spot prices now dictate the way.

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.


Rayglen Market Comments – August 19, 2020

As flax get closer to being harvested, new crop prices have met up with old crop. Bids this week are anywhere from $13.00/bu FOB to $14.00/bu delivered, with some flax buyers withdrawing their bids completely until new crop becomes available. Although the crop outlook is favorable, old crop supplies are thin which is keeping flax prices at a supported level. There are mixed reports from overseas which are also keeping flax prices at bay. Russia and Kazakh are reporting some drought which will affect yields and on the other hand, the EU is reporting an increase in flax acres. Prices are likely to remain sideways in the short term until harvest gets rolling and more solid reports from overseas start to emerge.

The barley market has really taken a turn to the downside with harvest in full swing in southern AB. Recent bids are in the $3.45 to $3.65/bu picked up on farm in eastern Sask and potentially up to $4.00/bu FOB farm in western Sask/ eastern AB. We are seeing some carry in value for those able to hold on to their product for a few months. Reports of large barley crops could keep grower bids suppressed this year, but only time will tell. Selling barley at a premium for new year movement may be a good play as supply should be plentiful throughout the year. If you are looking for the most current and up to date prices in your area, please call your Rayglen merchant.  

The oat harvest is underway and some early yield reports deserve recognition and mentioning; up to 140 bus per acre in certain locations. Now, as always, these kinds of reports aren’t across the board, but so far, we can infer that yields will be above average, and supply should be plentiful. That being said, bids have not moved much over the last week in either direction. Indications are still being quoted as $3.50 to $3.75/bu picked up for good quality #2 CW oat for relatively quick movement. The opportunity to sell at those levels may fade as supply becomes available and we are already seeing bids for deferred delivery lower.

Chickpea markets shed a sliver of light as we head into festival season in India. While the attendance to festivals may be low, it should translate to higher consumption of chickpea flour. In addition, the Indian government has also decided that it will continue its distribution of 1 kg of chickpeas to almost 190 million families in need till November free of cost. It is believed that India is sitting on stock of over 2 mil tonnes, but the free food program will likely eat up half of that…. pun intended.  New crop and old crop values have come together for large Kabuli’s hovering around $0.26/lb FOB farm. Smaller calibre chickpeas are also back on the radar with the same values as larger. Desi chickpeas are still quiet and are trading at a lower value to Kabulis with no firm price in hand. If you are looking to market Desi’s, please call your broker and prepare samples for shipping.

Wheat markets remains mute this week as we roll into harvest. There is chatter of what percentage of this year’s production will make feed. An average year can produce 10-11% of feed quality, but about half of the time we will see a better-quality production with only 5-6% feed. This year could be one of those years where milling quality is a higher yield which would explain the stall for milling wheat.  CWRS 13.5% pro bids range from $5.50-$6.00/bu off the farm and 12.5% pro at $5.00-$5.35/bu. Feed wheat bids range from $5.71/bu in Lethbridge to $4.50/bu FOB farm Western Canada. All of this is location dependent and based on nearby movement (Sept-Dec). We are still in question period though and as we get more information on harvest; these values could shift.

Peas are being harvested in quite a few areas and yields to date haven’t been disappointing. This information is unlikely to provide any support to the already quiet market. Bids have been softening over the past month and there doesn’t seem to be any short-term upside to the pea market. Yellow peas are trading at $6.00/bu, greens up to $8.00/bu and maple peas are also seeing $8.00/bu, all picked up on farm. As per reports, India has seen an increase in their desi chickpea prices as supply has declined. However, this increase is still below their minimum support price which won’t encourage any import restrictions to be removed, yet. Therefore, if we do see any support to the pea market it likely won’t be till later into the marketing year.

Canola futures continue their steady climb up this week as November futures are posted at $488.60/MT today, compared to $485/MT at the same time last week. There is some carry in the futures market with January at $495.5/MT and March at $501/MT. As has been the case in the past, support for canola pricing is coming from strength in soybean oil futures. With canola futures on the upswing, now may be a good time to put out some firm targets and catch the rising market.

Soybean prices are still solid for the time being with bids at $10/bu in many areas of the province as a picked up on farm price. Our low Loonie has kept our price mostly in the double digits through a particularly weak period for soybeans as issues between China and US persist. Most of the buyers that we deal with on soybeans do not have any protein requirements and generally there are little to no issues on grading. Faba bean bids are pretty quiet right now for old crop but if you have some product to move let your merchant know and we can track down some pricing. Fall bids on #1 fabas are around $8.00/bu range on select varieties with a discount schedule on lower grades.

Lentil harvest seems to be well underway throughout the province. Early yield indications have been a wide range from disappointing to well above average. Red lentils are trading between 24-25 cents delivered, with some companies offering prompt movement. Large green lentils are sitting between 29-30 cents for a number 1 and 27-28 cents on a number 2. With similar demand we will likely see these prices fall as farmers get further along with harvest and more supply becomes available.

Canaryseed remains stable again this week with a few major players seeking product. Highest price being offered that we’ve seen is 27 cents FOB farm for immediate movement for those with product in the bin but offers may capture slightly better. If you’re looking for a new crop value with deferred delivery, say Sep-Dec, 26 cents FOB farm should be attainable. Canaryseed crops looks decent at this point in time, but if these high temperatures stick around much longer, it may lower yields as seeds in top of the head may not fully develop. Canary should have another good trading year as ending stocks will be lower than the last few years.

Stable unchanged pricing from buyers continues this week in the mustard market. We have heard the earliest reports on yields just starting in southern Alberta and southwest Saskatchewan. We will see how this develops and we will get a better idea as harvest picks up. Spot yellow is trading at 40 cents/lb FOB farm for August/September movement. Brown sits at 31 cents and oriental bids for short term continue to be a challenge with few options on the table. New crop yellow mustard ranges from 39-40 cents, new crop brown from 30-32 cents and new crop oriental 26-28 cents on forge. This may be the last week for new crop pricing as harvest starts.  Call your merchant for details.

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.


Rayglen Market Comments – August 12, 2020

Chickpea markets are very quiet as of late. Current bids are in the 25 cents/lb range for a #2 product with across the board pricing. Obviously, this price is not bringing much (or any) product to the forefront as growers don’t get much inspiration at these levels. For most buyers that’s ok as the overseas market is very slow, and buyers are not looking to get much (if any) product on the books. The crop out in the field is a bit of a conundrum as issues with disease are reported to be pretty widespread and the jury is still out as to what tonnage and quality we will see from the infected acres. Reports suggest it may affect 20% of seeded acres. Ultimately the most important factor on our prices is that the world demand for chickpeas is strong and that we are still waiting to see how things unfold in India, Mexico and other areas.

Flax markets are definitely quieter than they were even a month ago. With new crop around the corner and analysts pegging the Saskatchewan crop 76% good or excellent, we are seeing prices around $14.00/bu delivered. The heat in the last couple of weeks may be a factor but at time of writing, analysts are giving the flax crop positive ratings. North American acreage is smaller and with less carry-over, prices should remain firm. The unknown is the European and Black Sea region crop. There have been some reports of drought on Russian and Kazakh flax which would impact yields. If yields are better than expected overseas, we could see the flax prices push down. As harvest evolves, prices will start to firm up.

The wheat markets have softened over the last couple of weeks. There is enough supply along with the large corn stocks, that buyers are not chasing the market. The 2020/21 crop year will be about capturing small rallies. This crop year will be about looking at the price per acre versus the price per bushel. The feed wheat market has also reflected the drop in prices. Prices vary based on location, but indication in the $4.00-$4.50/bu range picked up. Milling durum prices have also been stagnant with sideways pricing in the $7.50-$8.00/bu range.

Producers have begun harvesting and pea crops with strong yields look to be the case thus far. Even though acres were slightly down from last year we are expecting a larger production, with green peas seeing a big increase in tonnage. As per reports, it is being estimated that yellows will be up 9% from last year and green peas up 37%. If this ends up being the case, we could expect to see more downside in the green pea market. Any upside in pricing we may see this year will likely be gradual as well. It isn’t looking like we will be seeing many exports into India this year, so we will be more dependent on moving peas into China. Current pricing has yellow peas at $6.00 – 6.50/bu, with maples and green peas at $8.00 /bu range.

Canola futures are up slightly today with November posting $485/MT and January offering a $6/MT premium at time of writing. On farm producer bids for nearby delivery are around $9.50/bu pending location and freight costs. Strength seen today is due to a rally in soyoil and canola’s ability to ride coattails. Recently we’ve seen some stronger bids for Jan-Mar delivery, so if you’re interested in a new year delivery time frame, give the office a call. Harvest is underway in many areas and once we know how this year’s production shakes out, it should provide a good road map for the general tone of canola this year. 

The lentil market is sitting relatively flat this week as we start to hear of some lentils coming off in the southern areas of the prairies. While early reports on yields make it sound like a big crop is coming, there remains some concerns on later seeded crops having too much heat near the end to properly fill in. As far as pricing goes, small red lentils are hovering between 24-25 cents/lb FOB farm for #2 quality, large greens are at 28 cents/lb FOB farm on a #2, and small greens are also between 24-25 cents/lb FOB farm on a #1 quality. We encourage growers with contracts to get pictures and samples sent in quickly to get the ball rolling on movement.

Canary seed markets appear to be bucking the usual trend of weakness in pricing around this time of the year, with bids staying fairly sideways as we get closer to the crop getting put into the bins. Sask Ag’s final crop ratings show a solid improvement in canary seed crops across the province. Good or excellent ratings jumped 7% to a final number of 67%. That being said, acres did not go up as much as many people expected and on farm stocks have been depleted from the strong pricing of the last year so growers should expect a bit of strength come October/November. As for right now, we’re still seeing bids of 27 cents/lb picked up promptly for product in the bin, while new crop is at 26 cents/lb picked up between Sept/Dec with an AOG.

Optimism over ongoing trade negotiations with China helped overcome bumper yield projections expected from USDA. Private exporters reported a 4.8-million-bushel soybean export sale to China yesterday morning. It marked the fifth trading day in a row that China purchased 2020/21 U.S. soybeans. Soybean bids continue to hover between $9.50-$10.00/bu picked up location dependent. Faba bean demand for export quality is currently quite low with very little price differentiation between feed and #2 quality. Australian faba crop prospects continue to increase which is pushing prices down and also pushing Canadian fabas to the back of the line. Bids are in the range of $6/bu picked up in most locations. In general, across Western Canada, dry bean conditions would suggest above-average dry bean yields. Concerns about the US dry bean crop have moderated from some the earlier concerns that were being discussed in eastern part of the growing region. If seeded acres and crop intentions come to fruition, one can expect some price pressure on local cash bids.

Barley prices have really fallen back over the last week as new crop is already coming off in Alberta. Old crop Sask prices are ranging in that $3.40-$3.75/bu picked up on the farm and you may be able to still get movement here for August depending on the quantity. New crop prices are also weak as we’ve seen figures at $3.50 – $4.30/bu picked up on the farm depending on location with the latter being Alberta pricing. Feedlots are being shown an absurd amount of grain as it’s coming off hot and heavy in Alberta.

The oat market has remained pretty quiet here again this week. You can still find bids on old crop around that $3.25-$3.50/bu FOB farm on #2CW. There hasn’t been any change in the new crop market as buyers are still looking at $3.50 – $3.75/bu delivered in with movement being pushed out into the new year. If you are looking for some firm pricing call your Rayglen agent. There doesn’t seem to be a whole lot of feed oats around, but pricing is still hovering between $2.50 – $3.00 picked up on farm.

Mustard remains stuck in a holding pattern price wise. It’s a bit early yet for mustard harvest reports, so we anxiously await some yield information. Buyers report muted demand still, but there is some quick movement possible. Spot yellow is trading at 40 FOB for August/September movement. Brown sits at 31 cents. Moving oriental, short term is a challenge right now with little options on the table. New crop yellow mustard ranges from 39-40 cents, new crop brown from 30-32 cents and new crop oriental 26-28 cents on forge.  The price depends on the movement timeline but are picked up in the yard and still have act of God at this late date.  Call your merchant for details.

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.

 


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