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Rayglen Market Comments – October 20, 2021

Flax prices are holding again for another week and while there is a mixed bag of pricing depending on movement and location, bids remain historically high in all areas. Prices are still holding at the $43-$45.00/bu FOB levels for now. The demand at these levels is mostly coming from the US.  The biggest question is when the US will pivot to other locations for sourcing. Flax seed for next year will run into short supply, so call your Rayglen merchant sooner rather than later to help source supply. New crop targets did trigger last week in the $22-$23.00/bu range, picked up on farm with an act of God.

Barley markets repeat themselves and continue to show strength as we progress into the week. Feed bids show life once again despite the inevitability of corn reaching our boarders (if it hasn’t already). Offers at $7.75-$8.50/bu FOB farm are still triggering today, with firm values dependant on farm location and delivery window. Recent rumblings suggest maltsters have entered the purchasing game as well, as buyers look to get their hands on some product. A wide range of pricing indications have been thrown around and sit anywhere from $9.00 – $10.25/bu FOB farm pending delivery window, location, and quality. Malt buyers are willing to look at higher protein product at top end prices as well, so if this is a road you’d like to venture down, call in and we can sort out the details. Speculation in 2022 new crop is starting to pop up as well. Growers may want to start securing seed supplies as availability is presumably less than last year. We can help you source your barley seed!

Yellow peas continue to hold their price premium to greens. Recent yellow pea trades have taken place at $17.00/bu, with the odd $18.00/bu triggering in Southeastern Sask. Movement timelines are mainly quoted as December – January 2022. Green peas remain stable at $16.00/bu with the potential of $16.50/bu trading in certain areas. Feed pea markets have heated up a bit with trades taking place around $15.00-16.00/bu for fairly prompt shipping. Call your merchant if you have lower quality in the bin which you are looking to move before the new year. Maple peas remain quiet these past weeks; bids are stable at $18.00-19.00/bu FOB farm.

Sask Ag is showing a modest Canary seed yield difference with a reduction of 75,000 tonnes compared to 2020. The Canary rally seems to have run out of steam and prices have backed down to the 50-51 cent/lb level. While short-term demand seems to have been filled, it’s not clear if higher levels will return later in 2022. If we see some price rallies later in the year, suspect that volumes will be limited. Competition for new crop acres will be concentrated and some analysts are only expecting a 4% increase in Canary seed acres for the 2022 crop. Millet in the US has also come down in price and yields for the 2021 are expected to be fairly decent.

Last week’s chickpea tender was intended to be awarded on Monday, but it is still active, with everyone on pins and needles waiting for a response. The tender itself requires a portion to come from Canada, so it seems likely there will be some activity soon. Best to keep in mind this will likely result in a bump in the market versus a run. News out of Australia suggests their harvest is delayed, but decent. AUS production numbers are expected to be typical and according to overseas markets their offers are, on average, $100/MT less than where the Canadian offer lands. There is some solace in the majority of AUS crops being Desi chickpeas, but it is also the majority of what Pakistan and India like to consume on a daily basis. #2 Large Kabulis traded at a high of $0.60/lb this week from targets and pet food/feed markets are somewhere around $0.47-$0.48/lb FOB farm for last quarter movement. New crop values are still on the shelf.

After a big drop last week, canola futures markets have shot right back up and we are seeing some highs for this crop year. Physical trading is being based off the January futures, which are sitting at $942/MT, up from $893/MT last week. With local basis levels strong, bids for December are getting very close to $22/bu delivered to some plants around Saskatchewan. On the new crop side of things, November 2022 futures are now at $725/MT and new crop bids are approaching $16/bu delivered to plant. Renewed strength in world vegetable oil markets is helping push canola today. Also, concerns of a small Canadian crop remain intact as we continue to get a clearer picture of total production across the Prairies.

What a crazy week for oat prices! What started off as strong bids in the $8/bu range quickly shifted into high gear when buyers pushed to $10/bu delivered to plant for a time. At time of writing the $10/bu range seems to be tough to track down, but if you’re an interested seller let us know ASAP and we will try to firm it again. The big push seems to be a supply driven run of someone possibly covering a short that others did not want to be left behind on. These types of situations are not generally long lived as we did not see a run up in the oats futures to coincide with the move. That said, if you’re interested, we will look under some rocks and see what we can find.

Not much change in the mustard market this week. High bids and even higher-priced trades continue to hit the book. We still think the best way to trade mustard is with a firm offer through our target system. This is a very important marketing tool in this environment as posted bids are often below what actually trades. We also believe it may be time to book seed as the price could increase in relation to commercial sales values. There is also the real possibility of a shorter supply of high-quality planting seed which needs to be taken into consideration. Call us about treated and un-treated options with delivery to your yard. We even have access to the new brown and yellow hybrid varieties. Spot bids on mustard are posted as follows: Yellow at 90 cents/lb for a December to January type movement. Brown mustard sits at 85 cents and Oriental as high as 54 cents for the same approximate timeframe for pickup. Again, speak with your merchant in regard to putting out a firm target about posted bids.

Well, the page has turned on another week and again we continue to see strong pricing on wheat. Feed continues to trade in that $10-$10.50/bu range with movement by the end of the year or early 2022 on dry and heavy product. Flipping to the milling side, a 13.5% CWRS pockets around $11.70/bu delivered in December. As well, there is buyer interest for #1 CWSWS into Central Saskatchewan with pricing into the high $11’s to possibly even $12/bu delivered in. Turning to the durum, we have seen prices flatten since last week, though this looks to be more of a hiccup than anything. Buyer interest seems to be more geared toward the end of this year and into 2022 for the strongest pricing. If you have a firm target let your Rayglen merchant know.

Lentils remain quiet this week and are likely to stay this way for the near future. The major events effecting the lentil markets are as follows: perceived high values, logistic problems, and the upcoming Australian crop. Most concerning is Australia’s lentil crop. Reports suggest it is in great shape and will likely produce above average yields. It is assumed that a slowdown of Canadian lentil purchases is likely to take place knowing that there is a crop in Australia. The cheaper freight alone makes Australian lentils more attractive to the overseas markets. The world logistical problem is also a big factor affecting prices. With an unstable shipping schedule, it is hard for companies to a make a solid marketing plan. Therefore, no company wants to get themselves caught in a position where they have product that they can’t move on time should the market come off its highs. All these uncertainties have put the lentil market into a holding pattern. Reds remain between 46-48 cents/lb FOB farm, LGL lentils at 60-62 cents/lb FOB farm, and SGL lentils between 57-69 cents/lb FOB Farm.

Soybean futures have legged up since mid-last week. Positive momentum spurred on by sparse global edible oil supplies, export vs domestic tug-o-war, the prospect of expanding biodiesel production and domestic soymeal demand. Local bids have been as high as $14.50 to $15.00 FOB farm with farmer offers being the preferred marketing tool. Canadian faba yields are below trendline this year. The prospects of a successful Aussie faba crop and varied Canadian quality pose as headwinds for Canadian producers. Aussie exports may be hindered by domestic export competition from other grains and limited export capacity. Feed quality bids are near $13/bu FOB farm and #2 export quality hovering near $15/bu FOB. Canadian dry bean volumes are down sharply year over year and US volumes are expected to be down about 30% year over year. Lower bean prices in Mexico and Argentina may be a price bellwether.

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.


Rayglen Market Comments – October 20, 2021

Flax prices are holding again for another week and while there is a mixed bag of pricing depending on movement and location, bids remain historically high in all areas. Prices are still holding at the $43-$45.00/bu FOB levels for now. The demand at these levels is mostly coming from the US.  The biggest question is when the US will pivot to other locations for sourcing. Flax seed for next year will run into short supply, so call your Rayglen merchant sooner rather than later to help source supply. New crop targets did trigger last week in the $22-$23.00/bu range, picked up on farm with an act of God.

Barley markets repeat themselves and continue to show strength as we progress into the week. Feed bids show life once again despite the inevitability of corn reaching our boarders (if it hasn’t already). Offers at $7.75-$8.50/bu FOB farm are still triggering today, with firm values dependant on farm location and delivery window. Recent rumblings suggest maltsters have entered the purchasing game as well, as buyers look to get their hands on some product. A wide range of pricing indications have been thrown around and sit anywhere from $9.00 – $10.25/bu FOB farm pending delivery window, location, and quality. Malt buyers are willing to look at higher protein product at top end prices as well, so if this is a road you’d like to venture down, call in and we can sort out the details. Speculation in 2022 new crop is starting to pop up as well. Growers may want to start securing seed supplies as availability is presumably less than last year. We can help you source your barley seed!

Yellow peas continue to hold their price premium to greens. Recent yellow pea trades have taken place at $17.00/bu, with the odd $18.00/bu triggering in Southeastern Sask. Movement timelines are mainly quoted as December – January 2022. Green peas remain stable at $16.00/bu with the potential of $16.50/bu trading in certain areas. Feed pea markets have heated up a bit with trades taking place around $15.00-16.00/bu for fairly prompt shipping. Call your merchant if you have lower quality in the bin which you are looking to move before the new year. Maple peas remain quiet these past weeks; bids are stable at $18.00-19.00/bu FOB farm.

Sask Ag is showing a modest Canary seed yield difference with a reduction of 75,000 tonnes compared to 2020. The Canary rally seems to have run out of steam and prices have backed down to the 50-51 cent/lb level. While short-term demand seems to have been filled, it’s not clear if higher levels will return later in 2022. If we see some price rallies later in the year, suspect that volumes will be limited. Competition for new crop acres will be concentrated and some analysts are only expecting a 4% increase in Canary seed acres for the 2022 crop. Millet in the US has also come down in price and yields for the 2021 are expected to be fairly decent.

Last week’s chickpea tender was intended to be awarded on Monday, but it is still active, with everyone on pins and needles waiting for a response. The tender itself requires a portion to come from Canada, so it seems likely there will be some activity soon. Best to keep in mind this will likely result in a bump in the market versus a run. News out of Australia suggests their harvest is delayed, but decent. AUS production numbers are expected to be typical and according to overseas markets their offers are, on average, $100/MT less than where the Canadian offer lands. There is some solace in the majority of AUS crops being Desi chickpeas, but it is also the majority of what Pakistan and India like to consume on a daily basis. #2 Large Kabulis traded at a high of $0.60/lb this week from targets and pet food/feed markets are somewhere around $0.47-$0.48/lb FOB farm for last quarter movement. New crop values are still on the shelf.

After a big drop last week, canola futures markets have shot right back up and we are seeing some highs for this crop year. Physical trading is being based off the January futures, which are sitting at $942/MT, up from $893/MT last week. With local basis levels strong, bids for December are getting very close to $22/bu delivered to some plants around Saskatchewan. On the new crop side of things, November 2022 futures are now at $725/MT and new crop bids are approaching $16/bu delivered to plant. Renewed strength in world vegetable oil markets is helping push canola today. Also, concerns of a small Canadian crop remain intact as we continue to get a clearer picture of total production across the Prairies.

What a crazy week for oat prices! What started off as strong bids in the $8/bu range quickly shifted into high gear when buyers pushed to $10/bu delivered to plant for a time. At time of writing the $10/bu range seems to be tough to track down, but if you’re an interested seller let us know ASAP and we will try to firm it again. The big push seems to be a supply driven run of someone possibly covering a short that others did not want to be left behind on. These types of situations are not generally long lived as we did not see a run up in the oats futures to coincide with the move. That said, if you’re interested, we will look under some rocks and see what we can find.

Not much change in the mustard market this week. High bids and even higher-priced trades continue to hit the book. We still think the best way to trade mustard is with a firm offer through our target system. This is a very important marketing tool in this environment as posted bids are often below what actually trades. We also believe it may be time to book seed as the price could increase in relation to commercial sales values. There is also the real possibility of a shorter supply of high-quality planting seed which needs to be taken into consideration. Call us about treated and un-treated options with delivery to your yard. We even have access to the new brown and yellow hybrid varieties. Spot bids on mustard are posted as follows: Yellow at 90 cents/lb for a December to January type movement. Brown mustard sits at 85 cents and Oriental as high as 54 cents for the same approximate timeframe for pickup. Again, speak with your merchant in regard to putting out a firm target about posted bids.

Well, the page has turned on another week and again we continue to see strong pricing on wheat. Feed continues to trade in that $10-$10.50/bu range with movement by the end of the year or early 2022 on dry and heavy product. Flipping to the milling side, a 13.5% CWRS pockets around $11.70/bu delivered in December. As well, there is buyer interest for #1 CWSWS into Central Saskatchewan with pricing into the high $11’s to possibly even $12/bu delivered in. Turning to the durum, we have seen prices flatten since last week, though this looks to be more of a hiccup than anything. Buyer interest seems to be more geared toward the end of this year and into 2022 for the strongest pricing. If you have a firm target let your Rayglen merchant know.

Lentils remain quiet this week and are likely to stay this way for the near future. The major events effecting the lentil markets are as follows: perceived high values, logistic problems, and the upcoming Australian crop. Most concerning is Australia’s lentil crop. Reports suggest it is in great shape and will likely produce above average yields. It is assumed that a slowdown of Canadian lentil purchases is likely to take place knowing that there is a crop in Australia. The cheaper freight alone makes Australian lentils more attractive to the overseas markets. The world logistical problem is also a big factor affecting prices. With an unstable shipping schedule, it is hard for companies to a make a solid marketing plan. Therefore, no company wants to get themselves caught in a position where they have product that they can’t move on time should the market come off its highs. All these uncertainties have put the lentil market into a holding pattern. Reds remain between 46-48 cents/lb FOB farm, LGL lentils at 60-62 cents/lb FOB farm, and SGL lentils between 57-69 cents/lb FOB Farm.

Soybean futures have legged up since mid-last week. Positive momentum spurred on by sparse global edible oil supplies, export vs domestic tug-o-war, the prospect of expanding biodiesel production and domestic soymeal demand. Local bids have been as high as $14.50 to $15.00 FOB farm with farmer offers being the preferred marketing tool. Canadian faba yields are below trendline this year. The prospects of a successful Aussie faba crop and varied Canadian quality pose as headwinds for Canadian producers. Aussie exports may be hindered by domestic export competition from other grains and limited export capacity. Feed quality bids are near $13/bu FOB farm and #2 export quality hovering near $15/bu FOB. Canadian dry bean volumes are down sharply year over year and US volumes are expected to be down about 30% year over year. Lower bean prices in Mexico and Argentina may be a price bellwether.

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.


Rayglen Market Comments – October 13, 2021

Chickpea markets are buzzing about a new food tender announced this week and buyers are looking to sellers for targets. Price expectations are likely met somewhere around $0.64-$0.65/lb FOB farm for a #2 or better Kabuli in most areas of Western Canada. While this may not be the level growers had in mind it should not be ignored that these values are almost double from a few months ago. Feed markets are still hot at $0.47/lb FOB farm and while still quite low, new crop discussions have already started. Call if you want to set a target for the next couple weeks, or to discuss seed purchases/sales and new crop opportunities.

Yellow peas continue to lead the pack in terms of pricing this week. Buyers have increased bids slightly with yellows now priced at $16.50 -$17.00/bu picked up.  For the most part, these values carry a slightly pushed out delivery window; quoted as December – January 2022. Green peas remain bid at $16.00/bu FOB, but we did have a couple location specific firm targets hit at $16.50/bu last week. Maple pea markets have been quiet in light trade with values sitting around $18/bu FOB farm. We do have some seed available for purchase, but the supply is going quickly. Call your merchant regarding seed and where to start your new crop offers.

The oat market remains strong and continues to make gains week after week. There is high demand for milling quality with prices now posted around $7.75/bu delivered for October – December. If you can hold product into the new year, bids have been posted over $8.00/bu delivered. Historically, these are huge prices, but if you’re not quite satisfied, posting a firm target is always an option. If you don’t happen to have milling quality, the feed market continues to show very strong bids. Focus remains on bushel weight into the feed market, which is why having your samples graded is beneficial in helping us find the best bid available.

The barley world remains much the same this week. Feed barley continues to trigger in that $7.50 – $8.00/bu FOB farm range depending on location and shipment timeline. The malt side remains quieter, but recent chatter shows some buyers are interested in purchasing. Firm bids are scarce, but we have had indications in the $10.00/bu range cross our plate. If you’re sitting with malt barley on farm this makes it a perfect time to use the target system and show the market what you’re looking for. Buyers won’t typically buy any malt without seeing specs and/or physical samples, so we highly suggest getting that process started to avoid delay when firm bids become available. Rumblings of new crop feed barley have started. Bids hover around $5.50/bu FOB farm without an act of God clause. If these values are of interest, call your merchant to secure a firm bid.

Flax prices are up this week and remain aggressive. Prices range anywhere from $42-$45.00/bu FOB depending on movement timeline and location. So, what is the risk for holding and not selling at these price levels? The US could import Russian flax just as China is doing right now. US flax processors could get larger volumes of flax brought in by rail or barge from the Black Sea region instead of smaller lots from Canada. If prices continue to climb these scenarios could play out despite logistical costs. Yellow flax prices are sitting at $45.00/bu picked up. We have started to see early new crop pricing available along with seed bookings taking place this week. As supply is smaller this year, growers may want to consider making seed purchases early before sellers either run out or opt to make sales into these wild commercial markets.

The wheat market continues to hold its own with support coming from yesterday’s USDA report. Wheat numbers for each country were pegged close to where they had been predicted in general, less production and carryout. Canadian numbers shrank a bit more than anticipated though, roughly 2MMT from the previous report. As such, we continue to see price support. Milling price on a #1 HRSW with a 13.5% protein sits around $11.50/bu delivered for December movement. Action into the feed market is as strong as ever with $10.25-$10.75/bu picked up actively trading. Durum prices continue to hold strong as well with $21/bu delivered in and in some cases FOB farm triggering. As always, if you have a price point in mind, let your merchant know and they can put up a target for you.

Chicago soy futures moderated on increased crop production forecasts. There is some optimism on the horizon as we get closer to the typical season when China buys in preparation for January New Year. Local bids have been as high as $14.00 to $14.25/bu FOB farm with posted bids being thin. Canadian faba yields are below trendline this year. The prospects of a successful Aussie faba crop and varied Canadian quality pose as headwinds for Canadian producers. Feed quality bids are near $13/bu FOB farm and #2 export quality hovering near $15/bu FOB. Dry bean prices continue to experience strength through harvest. However, prices are anticipated to soften in an effort to slow delivery pace.

The Canary market has been quieter this week as bids from some buyers have tapered off. That said, we still have one or two opportunities in the mid 50 cent/lb range picked up on farm. Reports that Canary buyers are reworking their mix on product due to lack of available supply for the near term has taken the wind out of the sails for now. This might just be a marketing lull as things build up for future sales in the niche world that is Canary pricing, but it’s also possible we have seen the highs and this market will trend sideways and slowly slip through the season. No one really knows what will happen but being partially sold at this point is a good place to be if you’ve been lucky enough to make some sales at 50c/lb or higher.

The canola market has taken a big step backwards this week for the first time in a while. November canola futures recovered a small amount today and sit at $902/MT, down from the same time last week when they were up to $925/MT. Buyers have begun to look to January futures for pricing, now down to $893/MT, in comparison to $912/MT last week. One of the big reasons for the drop in pricing was a bearish feeling in the soy market after the updated USDA report. US and world soybeans stocks were both increased in the report. Despite all of that, local basis levels and cash bids remain historically strong and are worth keeping a close eye on.

The mustard market has been a wild ride as of late. Rumors of some very high-priced trades continue as some companies require short term coverage. With this in mind, keep giving your merchant offers for product at any movement window. The posted price we have right now shows yellow at 80 cents/lb for Oct. to December movement. Brown mustard sits at 70 to 75 cents and Oriental at 45-48 cents/lb depending on movement. As these prices continue to climb it may be time to think about booking your seed as the price could increase in relation to sale prices. We do our best to keep costs down in this environment. Call us about treated and un-treated options with delivery to your yard. We even have access to the new brown hybrid variety.

Lentil markets are unchanged for another week. This sideways trend is based on oversea trades remaining slow. At these levels no one wants to take a risk on being over bought, meaning buyers are comfortable to take a hand to mouth approach. Reds remain at 47-48 cents/lb FOB farm as a high, with many bids coming in under those values. Large greens are still trading between 60 to 62 cents FOB farm in most cases, but there may be a small opportunity to trade for slightly higher in Western SK.  Small greens are in light trade but bid at 57-59 cents/lb FOB farm. What does the future have in store? Reds could see some more downside pressure on news of a good looking, larger than expected Australian crop. The lentil markets are a tough read in today’s environment but putting some sales on the book at these historically strong levels is likely not the worst idea.

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.


Rayglen Market Comments – October 6, 2021

Barley markets remain much the same this week. Growers are still able to capture bids in the $7.50 – $8.00/bu FOB farm range depending on location and delivery time frame. Recent reports suggest the new supply of corn will hit Canada mid-month, and it is still expected these shipments will affect feed barley pricing negatively. The price of feed barley is more than likely to drop and at this point we just wonder when and by how much. Now is the time to highly consider making some sales as we don’t want you missing out on these great feed values. Malt barley bids remain scarce without much interest to date, but we suggest growers use the firm offer system to show the market what you have and want. Reduced yields, high pricing, and an expected acreage bump due to reduced input costs make a perfect storm for limited seed barley availability this coming season. Producers interested in planting barley in 2022 may want to consider sourcing their seed supply early as to not miss the boat. Contact your merchant and they will be happy to help you find what you’re looking for.

Historically, prices are still sitting quite high for the pea market. We haven’t had many changes over the past week, as bids seem to have stabilized. Yellow peas continue to trade at $16/bu picked up, with the opportunity to attain $17.00 – $17.50/bu delivered if your peas are glyphosate free. Green peas remain at $16.00-$16.50/bu FOB, while maples continue to be bid in the $18.00– 19.00/bu range. Reports state that this market will be looking towards the US and China to see how far their processing coverage goes out. It is expected that coverage only extends a couple months with these lower yields and reluctant farmer selling. Therefore, pricing should continue to be supported.

Flax prices remain firm and up slightly from last week. Recent bids are indicated at $40.00/bu picked up in many locations with most delivery windows quoted into Jan. 2022. There remains potential for slightly higher values on a firm target when movement is pushed out to March 2022. Tight supplies and little substitution for linseed oil could help these values remain firm into the new year. The Black Sea region flax crop is the biggest unknown right now and only time will tell when those supplies begin to move into the market. Yellow flax prices are also in the $40-$42.00/bu range picked up. It’s not too early to start thinking about new crop as buyers start to chew on the idea of purchasing. Although firm values haven’t been quoted, contracts will include an act of God and FOB farm. This offers the opportunity to use a firm target to show buyers what value you’re expecting for new crop. Talk to your Rayglen merchant about an offer along with any seed you may be needing as we suspect it will be in short supply.

Chickpea bulls are slowing down as India continues to hold off on purchasing and harvest in Australia is reported as average. Overseas buyers have not shown interest in importing product at current local levels, but rather values that equate to $0.10/lb less. It is speculated that the values today are where they are simply because growers are unwilling to sell. Many sellers are holding out for historical bids, but keep in mind, today’s bids are still historically large in comparison to average years. The phrase “selling on the curve” comes to mind for chickpeas as we may not see those huge gains all were expecting. Current crop bids for #2 Kabuli chickpeas @ $0.58/lb-$0.60/lb FOB farm location dependant with no chatter on new crop values yet. If you’re wanting to add chickpeas to the rotation, feel free to call us for your seed needs.

The oats market has been showing some unbelievable bids over the past few weeks, with some buyers willing to push to $7/bu picked up on farm for heavy #2 quality oats. Supply is tight and prices will ebb and flow as sales are made and buyers get covered, but it is likely we will not see much change until the end of the year when StatsCan’s December report tells us if there is any change in ending stocks. We have also had great opportunities on selling light oats into the milling market as well as uncompromising feed oats bids. Regardless of the quality of oats you have in the bin we have a home for them. On an aggressive market like this, firm targets are one of the most effective ways to get your preferred movement window for a top price.

It has been another strong week for canola as futures markets have seen significant increases for the second week in a row. Vegetable oil markets across the globe are the biggest reason for the strength we are seeing, but there is also support from an increase in energy markets around the world. At time of writing the November futures sit at $925/MT, up from $895/MT last week. Some buyers are now trading off the January futures which are at $912/MT, up from $885/MT last week. Local basis levels continue to be positive in the coming months, resulting in some strong bids, hovering around $21/bu delivered plant, for producers to take advantage of.

Soybean values are being driven by the perpetual balancing of current market vectors. The positive winds of edible oil values and export optimism are measured against the downdraft in the Chinese economy and persistent Gulf shipping issues. Local bids have been as high as $14.00/bu FOB farm with posted bids being thin. Canadian faba yields are underwhelming this year. Quality variance is typical and insect damage appears prevalent this year. Feed quality bids are near $13/bu FOB farm and #2 export quality hover near $15/bu FOB. Dry bean prices continue to see strength with harvest volumes coming in at 80% of long-term average in some growing zones. Prices are anticipated to soften post-harvest largely in an effort to slow delivery pace and cadence to receiving and processing capacity.

The Canary seed market is adjusting to lower available supply and market price elasticity. The early fall “to infinity and beyond” trajectory has moderated to a degree. Market gossip would indicate that end use is trying to reduce their reliance on Canary due to the perceived high acquisition costs. That said, new players enter the market with buying positions to fill and buoy the market. Nearby shipping opportunities appear to be filling and more buyers are moving to Dec.-Jan. bids at 54¢ delivered.

Durum pricing is garnering some strength again this week as the overseas market is on the hunt for some product. They will look to fill their troughs a little closer to home instead of pulling from Canada. Right now, Canadian pricing and freight are a bit rich for the liking but eventually it will come into play as buyers can only hold out for so long. Top bids in Southeast Saskatchewan sit around $21/bu for a #1CWAD while Southwest Saskatchewan may see a slight dip. There is also a strong showing for lower grades as well so grab your grading papers and let your merchant know what you’re working with. Flipping over to wheat, a #1 13.5 protein HRSW looks to be hovering in around that $11.40/bu delivered in Nov./Dec. with some really strong interest on soft white for 2022 movement at $11.80/bu delivered in Central Sask. Feed continues to trade sideways as pricing remains firm at $9.50-$10/bu FOB farm.

Lentils are having another quiet week with not many trades taking place and pricing remains flat. Reds seem to be topping out at 49 cents delivered for the most part. If you have lower quality lentils 42 cents trades for prompt movement. Large greens are at stalemate with sellers holding tight and buyers not showing a ton of interest. This market is very quiet at the moment even with prices at 62-63 cents for a number #2 or better lentil. It will be interesting to see who blinks first in this market. Buyers are still looking for offers on specialty lentils such as French greens and Belugas.

Mustard has to be one of the most fought over commodities this year as every buyer in the market is looking for product. The question at this point of time is how high it can go before the markets just pull away and wait for things to settle down and/or encourage an overall slowdown.  The old adage of high prices cure high prices will likely come into play at some point. The mustard market has been tough to keep pricing straight between actual prices, offers and the rumor mill of what mustard has traded for this Fall.   The posted price sheets that we have received shows yellow priced 75-80 cents/lb for Jan. movement, oriental 40-47 cents/lb depending on when you would like it to move, and brown 70-75 cents/lb. Keep in mind firm targets have triggered significantly higher, so it is best to chat with your merchant before taking the first bid you get. As these prices continue to climb it may be time to think about booking your seed as the price could increase in relation to commercial prices.

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.


Rayglen Market Comments – September 29, 2021

Canary seed continues its sideways trend this week as end users have purchased their fair share of product over the past month. As such, we see canary seed values hold steady at $0.55/lb picked up on the farm with movement into the new year. We still await final harvest numbers on this crop but do know that bushels will down this year. Where the numbers will stack up is always a little elusive on a crop that’s notoriously under reported. It’s worth keeping an eye on this commodity moving forward as demand is limited but when it comes values could pop.

Flax prices remain solid again this week with product trading at $37.00-$40/bu picked up on farm. Opportunities exist for the highest pricing when delivery windows are pushed out to Jan. – March 2022.  Yellow flax is getting some traction with prices starting at $40.00/bu mark picked up. Offers higher may trigger so be sure to discuss this with your merchant. Right now, flax prices are in the acceleration phase, but keep in mind, these prices could have a push back. As more farmer selling takes place, the market will eventually sort out where the price rally runs into resistance. End users of flax will have to sort out which demand will get rationed as there is no real substitution for linseed oil. Global supply issues weigh on everyone’s mind, as Kazakhstan has concerns about their flax yields. If you need flax seed for next year, it’s time to also start thinking about making purchases as supply will be tight. Contact Rayglen for seed options!

The wheat market continues to hold strong again this week as pricing remains steady. We continue to see feed wheat trading around that $9.50-$10.00/bu picked up on the farm. As well, buyers are looking for some milling quality product with values ranging around $11.40/bu delivered in. Knowing your protein and moisture will go a long way in being able to market your product accordingly. Pricing remains supported here with expected USDA cuts coming to the spring wheat crop, which could be the smallest they’ve had in 19 years. Durum prices have picked up as of late with $20/bu delivered in to Southeast Sask. for movement into the new year on a #1 CWAD. In Southwest Sask. we are seeing values at $19/bu delivered in. If you have a price in mind on some bushels, a firm target is not a bad way to go as there is interest.

Looking back at last week, the pea market has seen very little change. Green peas continue to be priced at $16/bu picked up with maple peas indicated at $19/bu picked up, both on a #2 quality. Yellow peas had a bit more action late last week and into this week. The majority of trades were at $16/bu picked up, however if you are in the Southeast there were some premium pricing options. Many of the movements are getting pushed back to November – January, so if you are needing movement and payment before the new year let your merchant know. As mentioned last week, we should have a supply of seed, but it may be limited this year. Stay in touch on what varieties and quantities you need.

Barley markets remain robust today. Feed values still range in that $7.50 – $8.00/bu FOB farm area depending on delivery time frame and location. The corn supply heading up from the US grows closer daily. Not to sound like a broken record, but when the day finally arrives, we expect to see a drop off in these values for the feed market. Malt remains quiet to date, but we suspect they are still attempting to figure out what is out there and what type of quality it comes with. A year or two ago if someone was offering you $6.00 for your feed barley it would have been a no brainer to sell, and now we sit with values $2 dollars greater than that. Take some risk off your plate and look to sell even a percentage of what is sitting in your bins. Future markets are hard to read but this may be the only time you can say you sold into a feed market for $8.00/bu.

Lentils remain flat this week with little change in pricing. Reds are still losing a little strength with movement being pushed out until the new year. Feedback from buyers is that there is not much for trades taking place overseas. We had a few trades take place at the 49-cent/lb mark but most buyers are happy to sit and wait, quoting 46-47 cents FOB farm.  Large green lentils have not changed in pricing this week. Selling has been quiet as growers are willing wait to pull the trigger on sales. The highest trades we have seen this week were at 64 cents/lb FOB farm on the West side of the province. Small green lentil pricing this week is supported between 60-62 cents FOB farm. Buyers are still looking for French green and beluga lentils at outstanding values. Call for information on these as only a couple buyers are looking for limited tonnage.

Soybean futures are up based on export optimism. Most export facilities in the Gulf are now back operating. USDA will release quarterly stocks and usage tomorrow; little change is expected. Local bids have been as high as $14.00/bu FOB farm, but active bids remain sparse. Canadian faba bean production is forecast to be down sharply and one of the lowest produced volumes in recent years. Anecdotal reports have indicated varying quality in the Canadian crop, which actually is fairly standard. Feed quality bids are near $13/bu FOB farm and #2 export quality hovering near $15/bu FOB. Export values seem to be getting established. Dry bean prices continue to see strength as final harvest numbers remain speculative. Water cooler talk is expecting a year over year production decline in the US and Canada. Globally that may be muted by the positive prospects of the Mexican and Argentinian crops.

Chickpea markets speculate where values can go as we consider a 70% smaller planting area in Canada for 2021 and a 40% increase in the US, but with lower yield. The certainty of a bullish market is starting to come to question as global markets search for other sources. Trades are occurring around $0.61/lb FOB farm for large sized kabuli chickpeas, but sales remain slow. New crop values have not come to fruition yet, but chatter is starting. If you need seed, the best advice is to start looking now. As markets move so do seed prices. Call for any seed opportunities or marketing information.

The oat market has remained stable and strong over the past week as bids stay high for all grades of oats. Bids in Saskatchewan on milling oats are regularly over $5.50 FOB farm with some delivered to plant bids into Manitoba in the $6.50-7.00/bu range. Meanwhile, good quality feed oats are fetching around $5.00/bu FOB farm these days. We do have markets for off spec oats as well at some historically high prices. New crop bids have started to be discussed so if you have plans of planting some oats next year, give us a call to be kept in the loop.

It has been a strong week in the canola market as futures have soared upwards. November futures are sitting at $895/MT at time of writing, up all the way from $866/MT last week. With local basis levels solid in most areas, November-December bids are over $20/bu FOB farm in some areas. No surprises as weak yield results are still trickling in across areas of Western Canada and dryness remains a concern for next year, albeit that’s far away still. The next big event we’re waiting for is the USDA report on Oct 12th, to hear more up to date production numbers.

Mustard continues its very strong path again this week. Brown is sitting at 65 cents/lb, yellow mustard is bid in record territory at 75 to 77 cent/lb and oriental is indicated up to 50 cents/lb, all based on #1 quality. All types have offers being entertained at higher values as well, so make sure to discuss this marketing tactic with your broker. Although firm values are scarce, we would also like to see offers on new crop contracts. Even though it is early, buyers have shown interest in securing some acres. These contracts are FOB farm and have an act of God clause included. We have competitively priced certified seed available as well, which includes delivery to your farm. It is certainly best to start with certified seed to avoid any unnecessary grade or quality issues at harvest. It may be very important to book seed early this year as certified seed values remain reasonable compared to the market.

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.


Rayglen Market Comments – September 22, 2021

The market for mustard continues to improve, especially on yellow. Yellow mustard is now trading in record type territory at the 75-cent/lb range. Brown is sitting at 65 cents and oriental is indicated up to 50 cents, all based on #1 quality and picked up on farm. It is important to talk to your merchant as higher offers will likely be looked at. In this environment, most offers are being considered if the time frame is reasonable. New crop contracts have started to appear. Please feel free to talk to a merchant about opportunities at very high values already with an act of God. We have competitively priced certified seed available as well, which includes delivery to your farm. It is certainly best to start with certified seed to avoid any unnecessary grade or quality issues.

The barley market remains rather strong this week, with bids sitting anywhere from $7.25 – $8.00/bu FOB farm for feed. As always, these values are area dependant with freight playing the biggest role in determining where the firm bid shakes out. Every week this report is released, we edge closer to corn being brought up from the US at cheaper values, which will inevitably affect the high feed barley price. The window to lock in these historical bids is still there but closing fast, so growers may want to consider makings sales short term. We suspect that given the growing conditions through-out the Prairies this year, many uncontacted malt varieties are struggling to make grade, ultimately adding more tonnes to the feed market. Recent rumblings suggest that growers with malt quality can catch somewhere in the range of $9.00/bu, but actual trading remains quiet to this date. Feed barley tends to carry a shorter delivery window than malt as buyers attempt to just hold themselves over until corn arrives in Canada.

As expected, StatsCan decreased its pea yield estimate, now reporting a 39% decline from last year. The USDA also decreased their estimate, down 44% from last year, which is why we were seeing such strong US values. Canadian peas were also being moved south, but it is looking like that immediate demand has been met as US yellow pea bids pulled off their highs. Current local yellow pea bids are indicated at $16.00/bu picked up, with potential protein premiums if you are in Southeast Sask. Green peas are priced at 16.00/bu picked up as well, while maple peas are down a touch to $19.00/bu. Finding seed might be the next struggle experienced this year, but we will have a supply of certified seed if you are in need.

While canola trade remained sideways for another week the November futures are slightly up at time of writing to $866.80/MT. Local values seem to find the most strength in the Dec./Jan. shipping window with bids hovering around $19.66/bu today. Weather has been cooperative for a late harvest but a need for rain is apparent. Subsoil moisture is severely lacking and concern for Spring is already growing. Early statistics out of the US and Canada both indicate canola production down 40% from last year despite an increase in seeded acres. This is based on StatsCan number release last week and the USDA will be releasing their crop production number on Oct. 12th.

The oat market continues a strong and steady path with bids consistently on the rise since the start of harvest. Recent pricing has been quoted over $5.50/bu picked up in many cases with delivered to plant bids hovering around $6.50-$7.00/bu in Manitoba. Recently, deferred shipment has been capturing the highest values with buyers looking to secure product into the new year. The feed oat market remains strong as well, trading around the $5.00/bu range for good quality feed. Discounts will likely apply for lighter and higher moisture oats, so make sure to have your specs on hand so we can market your grain effectively. Strong values like this are tough to ignore and it might not be a bad idea to take some risk off the table and make some incremental sales. Call your merchant for a bid catered to your farm.

The Canary seed market has backed off from the highs of 58 cents per pound picked up on farm for movement out into the early part of 2022. Current price indications show bids slumped a little to the 55-56 cent range FOB farm with some buyers pushing all movement into 2022.  With Canary yields coming in around half of what they did last year, the market is tight. Based on very high prices and lack of supply Canary does sit on a precarious spot as the birdseed market will likely be forced to rework their mix and use replacement commodities in their product. That said, for those with Canary that haven’t made a move yet, it may be a good plan to take some risk off your plate at current levels. Can you really go wrong saying you sold Canary at 55 cents/lb? These are the kinds of values the old timers talk about from way back!

Flax prices remain strong again this week with product trading at $37.00-$38.00/bu picked up on farm. Opportunities exist for slightly higher pricing when delivery windows are pushed out to March 2022, so feel free to discuss this option with your merchant. Will these prices hold? That is the main question among the masses. We have seen push back in other commodities and flax too will have its highs, but right now flax prices are in the acceleration phase. Supply issues globally weigh on everyone’s mind, as Kazakhstan has concerns about their flax yields. As flax harvest picks up pace and more farmer selling takes place, the market will eventually sort out where the price rally runs into resistance. End users of flax will have to sort out which demand will get rationed as there is no real substitution for linseed oil. If you need flax seed for next year, it’s time to start thinking about making purchases as supply will be tight. Contact Rayglen for seed options!

The chickpea market has maintained a similar trading range over the past few weeks with no major changes showing up. Bids have reached as high as $0.61/lb FOB farm for large sized kabuli chickpeas with the bottom end sitting right around $0.58/lb FOB, mostly location dependent. Contracts typically require maximum 10% 7mm sizing, with discounts to apply on product over 10% 7mm. We strongly recommend knowing the sizing of your chickpeas before marketing as to avoid any surprises and because many chickpeas have been coming off small compared to past years. We do have options to market all sizes and grades of chickpeas so be sure to get us your specs and/or samples so we can get to work on finding homes for your product.

Chicago soybean futures are up on rumors of China booking another large sale. Confirmation is expected to occur later this morning. A stronger US dollar, South American production prospects, and uncertainty about loading paces at the U.S. Gulf continue to limit gains in the soy complex. Local bids have been as high as $17.50 FOB farm, but active bids remain sparse. Canadian faba bean production is forecast to be down sharply and at one of the lowest produced volumes in recent years. Anecdotal reports have indicated varying quality in the Canadian crop, which is actually fairly standard. Feed quality bids are near $11/bu FOB farm, while #2 export quality typically brings a $2/bu plus premium. Export values seem to be getting established. Dry bean prices continue to see strength as final harvest numbers remain speculative. Water cooler talk is expecting a year over year production decline in the US and Canada. Globally that may be muted by the positive prospects of the Mexican and Argentinian crops.

There was not much change in the wheat market since this time last week. Feed values continue to range between $9.50 – $10.00/bu picked up on the farm. Looking at the milling sector, there is buyer interest on some higher protein (14%+) #2 CWRS with bids at $11.20/bu delivered in Central Sask. for end of the year movement. If you have some higher or lower protein product let us know as offers are a great way to show buyers what you’re working with. Cash prices continue to be supported due to tighter stock margins, but we’ll have to keep watch on Australia’s and Argentina’s crops, although they are some distance from harvest yet, the outlook is positive. Moving on to durum, the market pricing remains steady at $18/bu delivered in for a #2ob CWAD with movement this year both in SW and SE Sask. As well, there is buyer interest in lower grade product so if you have grading specs let your merchant know as they might be able to work on some blending packages.

Most lentil markets remain quiet again this week with little selling taking place and most buyers content not changing markets. India came out early this week and imposed a 33% tariff on American red lentils, so far, the only country affected. With India adding this tariff it now throws some more uncertainty into the markets. Red lentils continue to slip in price this week with 49cents/lb delivered plant seeming to be the high. Keep in mind some buyers are posting bids as low at 46 cents FOB farm. Large greens are still trading at the 62-63 cents/lb FOB far though, with small greens bid at 59-60 cents/lb FOB farm. Buyers are also still looking for offers on Belugas and French Greens and some record pricing. Call to discuss these niche crops!

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.


Rayglen Market Comments – September 15, 2021

Last year’s average Canary seed yield was pegged at roughly 29bu/ac across the Prairies. This year, estimates range from 14.5-18bu/ac, which is virtually half of the year prior. With this information, it is really no surprise that values are reaching record levels. Markets have been bullish since the start of harvest and for now, seem to be holding steady as we move into mid-September. Based on recent buyer indications, growers can secure bids in the $0.58/lb range picked up on the farm; this is up 3 cents from last week. If you are looking to squeeze a bit more out of your product, it is not a bad idea to throw up a firm target. Although we can’t guarantee a trade, this is a good tool to make sure you’re not leaving money on the table. How high will Canary seed go? It is very uncertain at this point, but we suspect there comes a time where it is viewed as overpriced. Making small sales along the way to hedge against the downside is never a bad play, especially at record price levels.

The mustard market continues to move up as buyers look for product. Yellow mustard is priced at 70 cents/lb, brown up to 65 cents and oriental indicated up to 50 cents/lb, all based on #1 quality and picked up on farm. These are historically huge prices and if you have any mustard left in your bins, we recommend talking to your merchant on sales options. If, by chance, you’re not quite pleased with these numbers, we highly suggest throwing firm targets out to try and push these values higher. In this environment, most offers are being considered. Moving on to future sales, new crop indications have started to pop up. Buyers are looking to next year already and strong new crop values will be available. Although it is early, feel free to inquire on possible options with your merchant. Also, just like every year, we have competitively priced certified seed available which includes delivery to your farm. Mustard is finicky when it comes to grade, so cleaning up your own seed isn’t always the best play. Moving product in your bins at today’s high prices and starting with new certified seed is a smart play.

The flax market remains interesting to say the least. Historical pricing continues to be pushed into the market with trades taking place anywhere from $34.00 – $37.00/bu FOB farm pending delivery window and location. Although there is lots of flax still standing, if you’re lucky enough to have some off already we highly suggest making sales into these markets. Not necessarily saying you need to sell everything, but moving a percent now is a very wise decision. With worldwide tonnage of flax expected to be down these numbers do seem to make sense at the moment, but sustainability remains a real question. At the end of the day the end user must be able to pay these prices and the question remains: at what point do we start to rock the boat? Offers and targets are getting hard looks as well, so if you’re seeking a bit more call in and place an offer. Should the market start to find itself, we aren’t sure if these (for lack of a better term) crazy prices will stick around.

The pea market has taken a bit of a breather over the past week as some of the highs seem to be off the table for the time being. Bids on #2 yellows range from $14/bu to $16/bu picked up on farm depending on a few factors such as: October movement versus February and whether or not they were sprayed with glyphosate. Green peas bids on #2 quality are seeing prices from $15 to $16/bu FOB as of late. Maple pea bids are down in to the $18 -$19/bu range after some trades at $20/bu picked up on farm in recent weeks. It’s tough to say what these markets are going to do, but the initial price run up seemed to fill some sales, cover some short positions, and has applied some “harvest pressure” to the position. We still are catching trades at the high end of the bid ranges this week so there are still buyers at the table for those that want to generate some cashflow or take risk off the table.

Canola saw a big drop last week to $852.70/MT which is the lowest since June. Despite the value recovering, the last 7 days of trade has mostly been sideways. Today the November futures are at $879/MT. The bullish feel in the market is still present but today’s levels are still very tradeable. StatsCan reported a production number of 12.79mil tonnes for this year’s production. All of this information indicates a stronger market for the coming trading months, but we are in a strange year where anything can happen. The bids today should not be ignored if the bins are full.

Barley markets are sideways from last week with the anticipation of corn moving up having the biggest impact on pricing. Bids this week range anywhere from$7.25 -$8.00/bu picked up, freight and delivery timeframe dependant. Although unconfirmed, it is largely assumed that corn imports from the US will have more of an impact on barley prices once actual shipping starts in Oct./Nov. For now, the prices on barley are still high enough to encourage corn imports and we are likely going to see prices hug each other until 2022 crop becomes available. For those with barley available, make sure you know your test weight and moisture as any later crop may have some quality issues that warrant discounts at destination. The malt market has not been overly aggressive, but some stronger indications have popped up, still below the $9.00/bu mark.

The chickpea market has seemingly slowed down this week after recent jumps had brought bids over 60 cents/lb. Canadian chickpeas are at a small price premium to their US counterparts and look to be following a break in higher prices that the US market has shown. With a very small Western Canadian chickpea crop and a solid export program throughout the past year, a bounce back up into new highs for the year is still a possibility. Current bids are around 58 cents/lb FOB farm based on a #2 large sized Kabuli chickpea. These bids often have a maximum 10% 7 mm sizing restriction, with discounts on any amount of 7 mm above the 10%. Large chickpeas should be in high demand this year as the drought conditions have resulted in a lot of smaller sized seeds.

StatsCan numbers are in and it’s looking a little thin on wheat this year compared to last. This puts us on pace for the smallest crop since 2007. Where it sits now, total wheat production numbers are pegged at roughly 38% below last year’s harvest. As such, we’re seeing some pretty strong values. Feed wheat continues to trade around $9.25-10.00/bu FOB farm. As well, buyers are interested in #1 and #2 HRSW with a 11% or more protein. Having your grading sheet will definitely help in marketing as we’ve seen prices range from $10 – $10.50/bu depending on farm location and spec. Call you merchant for pricing opportunities in your area as there may be room to grow. Flipping over to durum, we have seen milling prices retract this last little bit coming in around that $18/bu FOB farm in SE with a price pull back in SW Sask. to $18/bu delivered, both for pushed out movement basis #2 CWAD. These values would be deemed a historically strong price on any other year but given the year we’re in and production pegged at roughly 3 million tonnes less than last year well… there is room to pull back up to previous values and possibly more if you are able to sit on your hands and hold out for a while.

The oat market continues to plug along with #2CW quality bid in the mid $5.00/bu range picked up at the yard with further out pricing showing a little more strength. Feed oats have seen some strong bids as well with trading taking place at $5.00/bu for high quality feed with the potential for slight discounts on weight and other specs. The oat market has not seen the downward trend like other markets so this may be the time to book a few loads.  Here are a few things to remember when marketing your oats to ensure you’re getting the best value. Have the following information ready: weight, moisture, sprout damage and variety. The more information given to your merchant, the quicker we can put a sale together. As with most commodities this year, the majority of oat trades taking place are based off farmer targets. As this market is so competitive right now, buyers posted bids are usually slightly lower than what they are willing to pay.

Lentil bids remain fairly flat this week. The 2021 lentil crop was lowered to 1.8 million tonnes by StatsCan on a yield estimate just over 900lbs per acre. We will see what happens as the days go by, but there was no initial knee jerk reaction to speak of. Red lentils remain trading between 47-49 cents/lb FOB farm. The 50 cent FOB mark was not attained this week in trading and that seems to be a big target for growers. Large green lentils are now bid between 60-63 cents/lb FOB farm, with a slight chance of 64 cents in the right area.  Small green lentils are also stable at 58-60 cents FOB farm. Buyers are also still aggressively looking for French green and Beluga lentils, so please call your merchant with offers.

Soybean futures are up largely based on veg. oil strength. Chinese buyers keep cautiously picking around the edges and making incremental purchases. That said, there were some large cancellations due to reductions in Gulf port fobbing capacity from hurricane Ida damage. US harvest is poised to move into full swing shortly. Local bids have been as high as $17.50 FOB farm, but active bids remain sparse. At 86k MT, Canadian faba production is forecast to drop approximately 30%-40% below the 5-year average and last year’s production number. Due to reduced volume, faba export business is expected to shrink. Not to mention the competitive pressures that will come from an above average Aussie faba crop. Old crop fabas trading between $10.50-$11.00/bu FOB farm location dependent. Canadian dry bean production is forecast to be down 30% from last year but in line with the 10-year average. US dry bean production is also forecast to be lower this year and will be supportive for Canadian values.

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.

 


Rayglen Market Comments – September 8, 2021

Barley markets continue to fall back this week on the anticipation of corn moving up from the states. Current feed market is trading anywhere from $7.50 – $8.00/bu FOB farm depending on location and delivery time frame. We don’t suspect these numbers to stay relevant much longer though, as everyday grows closer to the import of corn into Canada. If you are sitting with some barley in the bin, now is the time to consider selling and hopefully still hit the some of the highs seen in the feed market. Firm offers are still being looked at but seem to be on a day-to-day basis. There has not been much for news surrounding the malt market recently, but we believe maltsters may just sit back for a little while longer to try and get a handle on this year’s availability. Anything that was left standing after the last few rains may be subject to quality issues, ultimately downgrading product from malt spec. As always, feel free to post a target to try and stir things up. Even though the price for feed has slowly started to decline over the last week, on farm values are still very aggressive.

The feed wheat market has slipped a bit over the past week with some buyers now showing indications around $9.00-$9.50/bu FOB farm. That said, we still have a hand full of purchasers supporting values around 10.00/bu FOB, pending location, for September/October movement. This gap in bids is concerning and leaves us wondering if those still buying at the top end are due for a negative price correction. It might be a good time to hedge your bets and get some feed wheat sold in anticipation of a softer market to come. Good quality milling wheat trades between $10.00 to $10.75/bu, delivered to plant, on a 13.5% protein min. spec. The durum market remains quite strong with product trading at $22.00/bu FOB farm in SE Saskatchewan and around $21.00/bu FOB as you move North. If these prices are not where you would like to sell at, we suggest using firm targets to try and capture your desired value.

A slower start after the long weekend in the pea market as both yellow and green peas soften. This suggests that buyers were able to get the coverage that they needed for the short term and now slow down the aggressive demand side. Yellow peas have moved down to an average bid of about $15/bu FOB, while buyers post bids around $16/bu for greens. Maple peas still seem to have some strength and $20/bu or slightly higher on offer may still be available. There may still be an opportunity for peas to find strength again, but for the immediate term, buyers seem to be stepping back. If you have a target price in mind, let your merchant know so they can stay relevant if/when markets perk back up. Although it is early, seed inquires have started and we will have supply available if you are looking to get into a new variety or need to replenish on farm stock.

It’s no surprise, but Chickpea markets maintain their tempo for another week. Harvest is currently underway with Sask Ag reporting 64% of the crop still standing in the field. Talk of smaller caliber is still present but we have yet to see an abundance of harvest samples roll into the office to confirm this. US buyers have been very aggressive in North American markets and have set the watermark thus far for marketing. US Bids range from $0.45-$0.50/lb USD or $0.58-$0.65/lb CAD. The Canadian market has seen trades at $0.60/lb, but grower hesitancy and bullish mindset has yet to open the floodgates. There is a lot of harvest left and time to determine what is actually in the field so “wait and see” is the general marketing strategy despite a few outliers.

Looking back over last year, just under 160,000 tonnes of canary was exported, similar to the previous year, but above the 5-year average of 153,000 tonnes. With low stock numbers and a projected smaller bushel amount, pricing should hold strong moving forward and we continue to see just that. Pricing has inched up another cent to settle in comfortably at $0.55/lb picked up on the farm. One possible stumbling block though could be the downward shift in millet pricing in the US. With canary prices going up, will birdseed packers rejig the bird feed “recipe” to minimize the reliance on canary?

Canola futures are exactly sideways from last week after an up and down week of trading. Canola oil is currently being seen as an expensive option compared to other oilseeds as soyoil has been taking some losses lately. Production concerns across western Canada as well as some weakness in the Canadian dollar are supporting current canola bids. November futures sit at $882/MT at time of writing, continuing to reflect the strong local prices we have been seeing over the past few months. Time will tell what Canada’s total production ends up at but keeping an eye out for strong local opportunities and taking advantage of them is good business at these price levels.

Lentil bids continue to lose traction this week, likely due to recent news of the Indian government deciding to remove import tariffs on product from the Black Sea region. With India looking to the Black Sea for lentils, this could imply they are seeking a cheaper supply. Short term, this could be viewed as bearish, but the upside to this news, for the long-term, may be that world supplies are tighter than thought. This could mean that India becomes a bigger importer of local supply down the line. Prices are weakening but remain strong for this time of year. Red lentils are still trading between 47-49 cents/lb FOB farm. Large green lentils are now bid between 60-63 cents/lb FOB farm, with a slight chance of targets triggering higher.  Small green lentils now trade at 58-60 cents FOB farm. Buyers are also still aggressively looking for French green and Beluga lentils and we urge growers to call and discuss their options.

Harvest reports continue to be all over the map regarding oats. Unsurprisingly, vast differences in yields pour in from brutally hit areas, to areas that caught some moisture. Overall, yield averages are expected to be down this year and with that, oats have been trading strong and sideways for the most part. Good #2 oats continue to trade in the mid $5 dollar range picked up in the yard or about $6 dollars per bushel delivered to plant. If movement gets stretched into the new year, we have seen the occasional bid perk up to $6.25 delivered range and we suggest growers continue to use firm targets to capture market highs. Even light and/or feed oats continue to secure strong values with indications around the $5 mark FOB farm. Call us with any available product on farm. Be sure to have weights and other specs on hand so we can effectively market your product and find you the best value.

Mustard prices remain at very strong levels through the past week. Recent bids on yellow have pushed up to 70 cents/lb in a few locations, brown varieties have buyers showing interest at 55 cents/lb picked up and the oriental market has pushed to around 40 cents without the usual concern on variety that we often see. These indications are based on #1 quality with varying delivery periods, but for the most part, moving quick. Latest projections put the provincial average for Sask. mustard just over 10bu/ac for the year, so supply is very tight with next to no carryover. We have a few buyers with interest in seeing firm targets over posted prices as long as they have a little time to work them into the overseas market. So, if you have a target price in mind, let your merchant know and we can put out a firm target to try and catch that premium. Obviously, no one’s bins are stocked full of mustard, but at these levels it’s not a terrible plan to make a move on some sales while the iron is hot.

Flax prices remain strong this week with prices pushing over $30/bu picked up. This year we can expect exports on flax to key destinations to be cut, as it will be no surprise that we have a lower-than-average supply. Reports in the Black Sea region also suggest that their level of exports will decline. There is no doubt these record high prices indicate there is concerns with the 2021 crop: not just in North America but also overseas. Once flax harvest is well underway and farmer selling commences, this price rally could pause, but in the meantime, if you have your flax off, give us a call for a picked-up price in your area.

Soybean futures oscillated in a narrow band today settling up slightly. This coming Friday’s USDA WASDE report has some traders levelling positions on what might be, a bean crop downgrade. Recent damage to the Gulf port hangs over the market and potentially threatens the export capacity on the brink of peak season. We are still early to be calling any finite production numbers as only 20% of the US crop is at the dropping leaves maturity phase. Local bids remain well supported near $17.00/bu FOB farm with prompt shipping. North American dry bean production will be markedly down year over year. Around the globe, Mexican bean production will be lower and Argentinian production is expected to be up. North American bids being led firmer by US values founded on the production volume decline. UK faba bean crop is expected to yield well. That said, local demand is likely to consume production and limit participation in export markets. A small amount of new crop has been harvested yet with bids hovering around $10.50/bu-$11.00/bu delivered.

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.


Rayglen Market Comments – September 1, 2021

Barley continues to pull some historical figures on product destined for the feed market. Area dependant values are indicated at $7.50 – $8.00/bu FOB farm for relatively quick shipment. If you are on the fence about selling, now may be a good time to pull the trigger as reports suggest nearby corn imports will reduce the need for feed barley, ultimately decreasing the value. Scattered showers throughout the Prairies last week will also increase the amount of feed hitting bins, another bearish signal for our strong values. The malt side of things seems to be growing interest as well and we suggest targeting $9.00 – $9.50/bu for good quality 2-row malt. We aren’t 100% certain these values will trigger, but recent rumors suggest maltsters may be interested in purchasing these values. At the end of the day if your offer trades, then great, if not, at least you didn’t leave money on the table. Delivery windows are starting to be pushed to October forward, so if you need cash flow or bin space consider making sales now.

As yield reports roll in, it is no revelation that pea supplies are going to be down in Canada and the US. This continues to support pricing with green and maple pea values increasing again this week. Green peas now have targets hitting at $17/bu picked up while buyers start to trigger maple peas at $18/bu picked up. Yellow peas are still priced competitively at $16/bu FOB but are showing a little less strength in comparison. Production in the US is also significantly down, which has US pricing showing strong gains. We have buyers looking for all qualities, so if you have #3 or feed specs give your merchant a call and we will work to capture the strongest values.

StatsCan estimates flax yields to be 30% below the 5-year average and the smallest crop since 2011. If that estimate is correct, then our export program for the upcoming year will be forced to reduce. As of August 23, only 1% of Saskatchewan flax was harvested. The Black Sea region also has reports of smaller yields which means that area will also have difficulty maintaining the level of exports they are accustomed to. We can expect flax prices to remain at record highs until the prices force buyers out of the market. A positive for flax marketing is that substitution is difficult for the majority of the linseed users, which should keep this market bullish. Prices do vary depending on movement, so call the Rayglen office for sale options once your flax harvest is underway.

The milling wheat market remains strong, but in light trade this week as bids remain comparative to feed pricing. This closeness in value makes milling sales tough as added quality specs push growers to make “easier” sales with very little spec to uphold. The feed wheat market trades between $10.00 – $10.75/bu FOB farm pending your location, with the highest bids still being seen in Western Sask. and Alberta. In comparison, good quality milling CWRS wheat, has been quoted between $10.50 – $11.00/bu delivered plant basis 13.5% protein. The durum market has been taking off like a rocket recently with bids for #2 or #3 CWAD sitting around $20/bu. If those values don’t quite do it for you, we suggest using the target system to try and squeeze a bit more out of the market.

The canary seed market is turning up the heat once again with bids of 54c/lb for sound quality actively trading. Strong values look to stay buoyed due to decreased production estimates here at home. As well, there is noise that Argentina’s outlook for planting is estimated to decrease roughly 30%. Couple that with continued production issues over in India and the year over year decrease in Niger seed and all together this could be interesting. The one hurdle to pushing things too much further may be the increase in US millet acres. With all that said, prices are at all-time highs, but how much further this market can go remains a mystery.

More reports are starting come in on mustard being harvested, and like everything else, the yields have been reported poor. The market has been a little more aggressive this week after sitting fairly flat for some time. Buyers are still looking for product and quick movement is still available. Posted bids remain at the following levels: Yellow mustard is indicated at 60 cents/lb, brown mustard at 50 cents/lb and oriental at 40 cents/lb, all picked up for a #1 quality. It is important to note that trades have triggered much higher on offer. Call your merchant with a target for any timeline and price, and we will see what we can do to get it traded.  Also, early seed orders are available for next year already. Talk to your merchant on this, as we are striving to keep pricing as close as we can to last year, but treatment costs are up like everything else.

The chickpea market in Canada is holding firm this week, encouraged by a surprisingly low production number coming from the StatsCan report released on Monday. They are estimating a 63,000 MT crop this year, down 72% from last year’s production. With chickpeas being such a small crop, we need to take this number with a grain of salt, but the overall trend lower is in line with expectations and should keep our prices high in the meantime. Current bids are as high as 60 cents/lb FOB farm, based on #2 kabuli chickpeas with max 10% 7mm sizing. Our buyers are taking looks at all offers above those values and we have homes for smaller sized chickpeas as well.

Lentil markets have softened a bit over the last week. All markets seem to have lost some steam, but reds have taken the biggest decline going from a peak of 55 cents/lb last week, down to an average bid of 50 cents/lb this week. That said, we have seen targets trigger at 51-52 cents/lb, so we encourage growers to try and push the market on firm offer. Large greens showed some slight declines from the highs as well, but we currently still have players in the 65 cent/lb FOB range. We suspect this bid isn’t very deep, so if you’re on the fence about selling, now may be the time. Small green bids remain strong trading at the 60-62 cents pending location and buyer. Again, posting targets at the high end is encouraged. Price decline/demand softness is attributed, for the most part, to harvest pressure sales and buyers taking delivery of pre booked contracts, which is relieving the pressure of needing product to fill orders. Markets will likely continue to have an ebb and flow until a firm number on supply is determined instead of just estimates.

Canola markets have been up and down through the week. November futures sit at $882/MT compared to $892/MT from last week so slightly down, but the demand is still strong for bushels. StatsCan predicted a drop of 24% in canola production from last year. The general trade tends to look at the StatCan numbers as overstated which could account for the lack luster response in the decreased production. Soybean oil futures are also seeing a decline in value which effects Canola but again, very little response to date. This indicates very tight stocks with no one willing to take a leap one way or another on exactly how short the supply might be…yet.

The oats market has been strong but sideways the last week or so. Sellers have not been offering up major tonnages, but a few sales here and there have kept things rolling along. For good #2 oats many bids are in the mid to high $5’s per bushel picked up on farm, with higher pricing being seen for those who are willing to hold out for 2022 for movement. We are seeing lighter oats around this year, but sales on those can still eclipse $5/bu in the yard in many cases, still a solid return. Harvest has been largely on hold the last couple weeks so reports have not brought much new news on what the rest of this crop will look like in terms of quality. Despite the already vastly reduced quantity, we hope some warmer days will come soon and we can at least see an end to the harvest on these disappointing yields.

Soybean futures have been in an overall downward trend since mid-August. Recent downward pressure is associated with gulf logistical damage due to hurricane Ida. Chinese crush volume is dipping slightly further, bringing additional burden to the soybean complex. Rains also continue across the Midwest. Local bids remain well supported near $15.00/bu delivered. Buyers are open to any reasonable offer as posted bids remain scarce. North American dry bean production will be markedly down this year over last year. Around the globe, Mexican bean production will be lower and Argentinian production is expected to be up. North American bids are being led firmer by US values founded on the production volume decline. The UK faba bean crop is expected to yield well. That said, local demand is likely to consume production and limit participation in export markets. Very minimal new crop has been harvested, with bids hovering around $10.50/bu-$11.00/bu delivered.

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.


Rayglen Market Comments – August 25, 2021

The barley market seems to be taking a quick breather and attempting to find itself. That $8.00/bu FOB farm pricing is still bouncing around but expect the delivery to be pushed out a bit. With recent showers throughout the Prairies, one would expect that we might see more feed grains then initially anticipated, so don’t expect a big run up in price anytime soon. Malt remains to be somewhat quiet to date, but it is suspected that is due to risk vs reward on comparing feed market to the malt market. China recently released information that they will be allowing imports from Kazakhstan which could have a bit of an impact on the feed market. If you’re on the fence if you should sell or not, locking in a percentage of the farm is not a bad idea. Would you rather sell in the middle, at a couple cents below the highest trade, or hold out and sell at the bottom, for a potential difference of dollars.

The wheat market remains to be an interesting one this week, as the spread from milling to feed is not much difference. Depending on location for feed wheat, you are looking anywhere from $10.00 – $10.50/bu FOB farm. Good quality milling wheat with high protein sits around $11.00 – $11.10. Durum values seem to be up in the air with buyers posting $20.00/bu, but with recent rains, it’s expected that what’s left standing in fields will be pushed down a grade or two. Posting a firm offer for any durum above posted values should gain some interest and locking up a certain percentage is not a bad idea. Even if you only do a couple loads you can brag that you sold $20 dollar durum. Soft white wheat seems to be making a splash right now as well, posting an $11.25/bu delivered bid.

Flax prices have been sideways as harvest is underway. Prices are holding in the $23.00-$24.00/bu range with the possibility of higher for a longer movement. Russian flax production is pegged to be steady as increased acres offsets a lower yield. In the US, lower yields will also offset the increased acres and the overall change in supplies compared to last year is expected to be small. Still, the biggest unknown, is what the Chinese market will do. Since these flax prices are historically high, especially right before harvest, it’s hard to gauge how much upside there could be in pricing going forward before some demand starts to back off. For now, the momentum on prices remains strong.

The pea market continues to stay strong this past week with great bids showing on all types of peas. Spot bids are up to $16.00 – $16.50/bu FOB farm on both yellow and green peas for standard #2 quality. If you have a little bit of bleaching in your greens, there are options at minimal discounts that can be sorted out. If you are a maple pea grower, we have buyers that are triggering offers at $16.00/bu picked up on farm for fall movement, but buyers do need to know what variety they are buying, as different ones are preferred for different markets.  For those that are growing one of the lesser-known pea types such as a Dun pea, we have current bids as high as $16.00/bu delivered to plant. These pea prices seem to be mainly driven by the US market and not the usual overseas buyers. Therefore, it is yet to be seen how deep this market is and how long this will be sustained but for the time being market prices are great, so act accordingly.

Oats continue to trade sideways this week as we haven’t seen much variance in bids. That being said, pricing remains strong around that $5.50/bu range delivered in. Buyers are looking for product so if you have a target price in mind, let your Rayglen merchant know. With production on the lighter side this year, there have been musings of possibly importing from Australia or Europe to help absorb some the shortfall expected. Time will tell on whether this comes to fruition as oat harvest has just started in some locations. Though this rain is welcome, it has a start and stop type of dance going on with the combines, let’s just hope it doesn’t mess with quality too much more, as it’s already been a tough year.

The canary seed harvest is just beginning in a few areas, with many combines being held up by rain. Bids have been holding quite strong in this market, and consistently moving upwards each week it seems. We can expect the canary seed crop will be reduced this year as drought has affected it heavily. Over this past week, canary seed pricing has been posted at 50 cents/lb FOB farm. If you have a certain price in mind, we suggest calling your Rayglen merchant and putting up a firm offer.

Lentils continue to climb this week. The biggest question being asked is whether this market is at the top, or can they climb a little bit higher? Whether they go higher or not is anyone’s guess. It has been a long time since lentils have remained at this level and we must keep in mind that most places that are buying lentils are not rich countries. Therefore, if the prices get too high, they will find a replacement. Right now, Canada is in a situation where we are one of the few countries that has product available to market.  In a couple months, Australia’s lentils will come online, and reports suggest that they have a decent crop that will be harvested.  If they get the expected quantity and good quality, this should put pressure on the red market for later in the marketing year.  The other factor that would cause prices to drop is if these markets are running due to short covering. Once these shorts are covered, buyers will back away from the table.  Looking at today’s pricing, we are seeing reds at 55 cents, large green lentils at 65 cents, and small green lentils are 62 cents, all FOB farm. In today’s market, it is best to call in to get up to date pricing as they are changing daily.

Mustard is starting to come off in areas of Alberta and Saskatchewan. Recent rains and cool weather have slowed progress. Growers that have started are reporting below average yields, which is what we expected. Things are very tough in many areas. Will prices start to pick up again? This is yet to be seen as the market has been completely flat this week. Buyers are still looking for product and quick movement is still available. Yellow mustard is priced at 60 cents, brown mustard at 50 cents and oriental indicated at 40 cents, all picked up for a #1 quality. Call your merchant with a target for any timeline and price, and maybe a trade for a little better can be done.

The canola market was up and down through the week but steady from last week at $914.80 Nov. and $898.40 Jan 22’. Markets are watching soybeans very closely this week as soy prices start to slide. Canola will require a huge premium to soy to keep the acres up for the coming year. The bean production is massive and can easily replace Canola where it is lacking, but to lose Canola acres can mean a huge disruption in the market for the coming years. Right now, it is too soon to see a definite guideline, but the market is paying close attention.

After staying incredibly quiet for 2-3 years, the chickpea market has taken off in a big way over the past week. Instead of the usual 1-2 cent changes we would normally see in this market, we’ve been looking at 5-10 cent intervals. This type of extreme pricing movement is not something we see often and has caught the attention of chickpea growers all over. Currently, bids are around 60 cents/lb FOB farm for #2 large kabuli chickpeas. Many bids are based on max 10% 7 mm sizing with discounts to apply over the 10%. We are encouraging offers for different qualities and price points to show to our buyers as they are eager to see what it takes to make purchases.

The soybean market showed big gains yesterday based on degrading crop condition scores. Followed today by profit taking and a marginal dip until propped back up by rumors of Chinese purchases, a refocus on crop condition scores and river logistics issues in South America. Local bids remain well supported near $15.50/bu delivered. Buyers are open to any reasonable offer as posted bids remain scarce. North American dry bean production will be markedly down year over year. Around the globe, Mexican bean production will be lower and Argentinian production is expected to be up. North American bids being led firmer by US values founded on the production volume decline. UK faba bean crop is expected to yield well. That said, local demand is likely to consume production and limit participation in export markets. Very few new crop acres have been harvested yet with bids hovering around $8.50/bu fob farm location dependent.

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.


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