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Rayglen Market Comments – November 13, 2019

The soybean market has slipped a little in price from the strength we have seen in recent weeks with buyers down two bits paying $10.00 to $10.25/bu picked up in the yard on #2 quality with no minimums on protein. Movement will still occur before Christmas on the soybeans at this point, but we are pressing closer and closer to 2020 window. The faba bean market has not really heated up so far as samples have been slow to come in. We are hearing bid indications on #2 quality at as high as $8.50/bu picked up in the yard.  Buyer interest has been lighter on faba as overseas markets are not as desperate for fabas as last year due to better supply from traditional markets.

 

Over the last few weeks, the oat market has not seen much change. For milling quality oats, there is a lack in supply this year due to poor harvest conditions. However, we do have options for movement on oats that aren’t making top milling quality. Our buyer is looking for samples that have been graded poorly in other places as they feel that much of this product is still useable, so it is worth checking out. On #2 oats we have seen pricing around $3.00/bu FOB and depending on location, might be able to get movement in before the new year. For feed oats, we have buyers looking at $2.65 – $2.75/bu FOB for a prompt movement. For this market, there can’t be a high percentage of sprouts as the oats need to be dehulled.

 

Lentil markets are moving through another week with little change and reports that India is finding weed seeds in bulk imports which has Canadian exporters concerned about doing business in what feels like a “witch hunt” environment. Large green lentils softened a little last week which has carried through to this week. Bids for #2 LGL FOB farm are hanging around $0.23/lb and offers are $0.24/lb. SGL #2 bids are at $0.19/lb with offers a penny above. With such close values between the seller and the buyer trading has been happening but not as fluidly as you might expect. Small red lentil markets remain quiet with several sellers setting targets at $0.20/lb but trades coming through at $0.19/lb FOB farm in a few areas. General comment is to piece meal out 2019 crop (and carry from last year) and not miss an opportunity at pops in the market.

 

Canary seed has been fairly flat the last few weeks. There are still trades going out at 30c/lb FOB farm on good quality, but the demand isn’t as strong as it was a month or two ago. There are some rumours that the end users are shying away from the 30c/lb but if you can wait until Jan-Feb you should be able to still find someone to take your product at 30c/lb. If you need product moved by year end 28-29c/lb FOB farm is where the price would be. The quietness in the market may be from buyers trying to figure out what kind of quality and quantity is out there, as the late harvest has extended normal timelines. Maybe getting a bit of sales on the books might not be such a bad idea, seeing 30c/lb FOB is a great bid. For new crop prices, we don’t have anything yet, but you could always get things going with an offer and see if someone will take it.

 

Canola is trading flat the last couple days presumably from the soybean markets downward pressure.  Price for No.1 canola on the west side of the province is trading around the $9.72/bu mark for November movement and the East side is sitting $9.59/bu delivered plant.  February movement pricing is $10.16/bu west side and $10.30/bu east side delivered to plant, so carrying product into the winter shows some promise. Buyers now seem to be comfortable with the supply of Canola as no one is showing concern with product still remaining out in the field.  Some of the canola will now remain out in the field now until spring due to recent snow.  If you have off spec canola give our office a call as we do have some homes for heated and damaged canola.

 

Strong green pea pricing has been around for a couple of weeks now and pricing is holding steady, anywhere from that $10.00 – $10.50/bu FOB farm with the later for Jan/Feb movement. There have been some offers recently, trading with a little quicker movement. So, don’t hesitate to call your merchant to post up an offer. There has been some suggestion that this may be due to China having difficulty sourcing quality green peas that they require, thus bolstering green pea pricing for the time being. Once they receive their fill, watch for prices to pull back. On the maple pea front, prices are starting to make some noise. We’ve seen prices rally from that $7.00 – $7.25/bu FOB to $8.00 – $8.25/bu FOB for Nov/Dec/Jan movement. Definitely a price to start looking at moving some of that product with an exorbitant amount sitting in the bins. In regard to yellow peas, trading is still holding sideways. With not much change you can look to see $6.60/bu delivered to plants in the North West and South West locations. Things have been pretty quiet this week on dun peas so if you are looking to market yours give us a call.

 

Feed barley prices have firmed up a little over this past week. Feed quality product has been trading between $3.75 to $4.00/bu FOB farm for January to February movement over the past week. Movement for November to December has been filled for quite some time. You would probably have to take a discount on price to get it moved in that earlier timeframe if needed, but those opportunities are few and far between.   Finding heavy and dry barley this year has been proven to be very difficult, with the emphasis on dry, along with the issue of finding trucks going west into Alberta as there is a shortage of product moving back east. The malt barley market has been slow for quite a while, but there are some buyers who might look at some samples and give you a price. Please send in your two row Copeland or Metcalfe samples to us at Rayglen. Buyers may potentially be looking for a lot more malt in the not so distant future.

 

Quality remains to be the biggest concern among buyers and sellers of flax this year. The market has held on to strength price wise but oil content as well as damage and moisture are the most important grading factors currently. We recommend getting samples into the office so we can have them analyzed, getting you the best price possible. Milling quality flax is still trading around $14/bu FOB farm depending on location, with movement getting pushed into early 2020. #1 quality flax is holding between $12.50-$13/bu FOB farm with a November/December movement. We have markets for off spec flax as well so be sure to give your merchant a call with what you have. 

 

The mustard market has shown some modest strength and along with that some seller interest. The market is still wrestling with what the available supply of each class will be, but early indications seem to tend to tighter yellow mustard supplies. New crop opportunities are present in the marketplace and represent attractive starting points for next year acres. Local bids for fall shipping are yellow mustard are in the range of 37-38 cents/lb fob farm, brown 29.5-30 cents fob farm and oriental (Forge/Vulcan) 24-25 fob farm. Thus far export demand has been pedestrian and therefore buyers don’t require a lot of coverage now. That said, firm offers to sell have had good success bringing the needs of the farmer and buyer together. Call your Rayglen merchant to discuss your mustard marketing options.

 

One of the hottest trades this week has been feed wheat and durum. We have had a pop in price again giving us the opportunity for us to trade in the $4.60/bu – $5.00/bu FOB range on dry and good weight product. It is very important though on your location in Saskatchewan or Alberta when working out an FOB price. How long this pop lasts is the question, as the market is being pushed a little from the US corn issues. We are still seeing a lot of high moisture grain though, and that of course will affect the price lower, but we are finding homes for some. Please make sure you have your grain tested, so when it comes to marketing you will know what we are working with. Milling quality prices have been stable at $6.30 – $6.50 delivered into plant on #1 red spring with 13.5 protein. Milling durum seems to be trading in a wide range as we had reports all the way from $8 for fairly prompt movement, to $8.50 delivered for spring movement.  

 

 

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.


Rayglen Market Comments – November 6, 2019

The canaryseed market remains fairly stable, although some of our buyers have stated end users are starting to shy away from 30 cents. Today, bids range from 28c/lb to 30 c/lb FOB farm and for the most part, 30 cent bids are quoted for early 2020 movement.  If you need to clear some bin space, 28-29 cents should get it out by Dec. 31, 2019. We hope to see these types of bids for a while but are unsure what the future holds in light of this recent buyer comment. There has not been a lot of panic to buy canaryseed lately as was seen in September and October, so hedging your bets may be a good play at this time. As for harvest, it is almost safe to say its over and what is out there now, probably won’t get harvested until the spring… that being said, this is Saskatchewan; if you don’t like the weather, just wait 15 minutes.   

 

Steady as she goes for chickpeas this week. The phones have certainly started to heat up since we are close to ending #harvest2019 and unfortunately, but not surprisingly, there is a lot of green and tough chickpeas on the farm. Feed values have ranged from $0.06-0.12/lb FOB farm depending on the range of quality. If you have tough or damp chickpea, in some cases drying them down is an option, but at a typical $0.20/bu ($0.0033/lb) per percent down you quickly get priced out beyond the lowest bid. It is hard to say where that market is going but consider quality when planning to store for a period of time. Mould and musty smell can quickly put that product below $0.06/lb. No change to #2 market bids ranging from $0.25-$0.27/lb FOB farm and we are always on the lookout for desi’s both old and new crop.

 

There has been a steady amount of pea trades happening this week. Green peas are trading at $10.00/bu FOB for a January – February movement, we also have movement for higher bleached greens. Yellow peas hit $6.60/bu delivered into North West and South West Sask plants and maple peas are trading at $7.50/bu FOB, unless your variety is Acer then $8.00/bu FOB is tradable. We have also seen movement on Dun peas this week at $8.00/bu delivered. Looking at seasonal tendencies we are expecting pricing to remain mostly sideways to slightly higher, therefore, if your target price is close speak with your merchant on putting in a firm offer. We will also have a supply of pea seed, let us know what variety you are searching for.

 

The Canola market still remains in the rut it has been in for a number of weeks with the futures seemingly tethered to the $450/mt market in the near term. The January futures carry a $10/mt premium to the November and the March almost the same to the Jan so there is some advantage to pricing further out at this time. Current basis levels puts most bids in the $9.50 to $9.75/bu range delivered, but the occasional short term cover catches closer to $10/bu. We are hearing lots of horror stories of heated canola around the country so if you have anything that went into the bin tough keep a close eye on it. Delayed Pricing options are around again on canola to get the storage risk off your plate but allow you some time for the markets to move if you’re of a bullish opinion on futures or basis levels. This market awaits some good news to get it out of the current sideways trend it continues in.  

 

The large green lentil market is feeling a little pressure this week with price sliding between 1 cent to 2 cents per pound for a number 1 and 2 grades. We have a few buyers looking for X3 and #3 large green lentil prices at 15 cents to 13 cents FOB farm. Nothing has been reported for any significant reason behind this drop other than demand is slowing at the moment.  Red lentils remain in the 18 – 18.5cent FOB farm range. India is still the biggest factor in how the red lentil pricing will go, at this time their minimum support price is increased which will help Canadian lentils look a little less expensive, but if they start importing too much then India could impose more tariffs. It will be a balancing act for the short term to keep this market climbing. Don’t expect huge changes in pricing, until the market gets a better handle on actual harvested tonnage and quality in Canada. Setting targets a half cent to a cent higher than the current going rate seems to be working for some to get a sale on the books.

 

The oats market remains quiet, but solid as prices continue to get interest from farmers across the province. Deliveries remain above pace when compared to last year and there aren’t any expectations of a dip in demand any time soon. Milling oats are trading between $3.40-$3.75/bu delivered to plant in Saskatchewan depending on delivery timeframe. On the feed side of the market, bids are available between $2.50-$2.75/bu FOB farm depending on location. All bids are based on heavy oats that are under 14% moisture.

 

Flax prices are holding steady this week as more and more acres are taken off. Quality is the biggest concern this year and buyers are all asking to see samples before giving much for firm bids. Top milling quality flax can trade between $13.50-$14/bu FOB farm for January/February movement. #1 quality flax is trading between $12.50-$13/bu FOB farm for November-January movement. While harvest delays are a main factor in prices holding strong, the belief is that Kazakhstan’s flax crop may be in trouble with low yields and a delayed harvest as well. Despite historical low demand for this time of the year, these quality and yield concerns should hold prices firm for the near future. 

 

Soybeans values have been drifting sideways since the end of October. We will have new information on Friday from the USDA with many traders anticipating a bullish report due to a shrinking US crop. Still no new news on Chinese demand, thus US crop size continues to be the topic that is most apt to the move the market. Local soybean bids are trading in the range of $10.25-$10.50/bu picked up on farm. North American dry bean production has hit some stumbling blocks this harvest. This has kept the local market supported. Final quality and production numbers continue to roll in for this year’s crop. It seems that Canada will fall back into its more traditional position within global faba exporters, which means we take a back seat to Europe and Australia. Once again quality appears variable this year with top quality fabas trading as high as $8.50/bu FOB farm.

Barley seems to have a bit of life this week. Maybe the cold temperatures that have swept across the province have also brought better bids. Trucks still seem to be an issue for getting product to Lethbridge and back, which has jammed up buyers until the new year or at least until December. November is completely full for movement, so make sure if you need product moved by end of December you get some contracted before that month is filled as well. Prices this week on barley are between $3.50-3.75/bu FOB farm for December movement, but if you can hold until Jan-Feb a few offers have traded at $4 FOB farm, depending on freight of course. Malt seems to be a of a bit slower process on getting sample results and prices, but there are still buyers looking for some, so send us samples if you are interested.

 

Mustard prices have stayed in a similar range this week with no major changes. If you are ready to start thinking about next year’s crop plan, we have certified mustard seed available that can be treated and is all delivered to your yard. For new crop contracts, show us offers and we will bring them back to our buyers. Spot yellow mustard is firm at 38c/lb FOB farm for movement early in the new year.  Brown mustard prices are still at 30c/lb FOB farm, and oriental, depending on variety, is bid between 23-25c/lb FOB farm. All pricing is based on #1 and is subject to sample acceptance.

 

Feed wheat continues to see a lot of trading again this week. Look for pricing in that $4.40/bu – $5.00/bu FOB range on dry heavy product, location dependent. The one issue though that seems to be hampering the price for both the buyer and seller is toughness. There is a lot of wet grain out there so make sure you’ve had your grain tested, so when it comes to marketing it you know where you’re starting at. On the milling side of things prices have inched higher. Watch for $6.40 – $6.50 delivered into plant on #1 13.5 pro red spring. Milling durum has been holding steady trading from $8.00 – $8.65/bu FOB depending on location.

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.


Rayglen Market Comments – October 30, 2019

Feed wheat values are similar to the last few weeks with bids around $4.30 to $4.70/bu picked up in the yard, location dependent. Stronger prices are for further west areas, as feedlot alley seems to remain the price driver right now. Finding homes for feed wheat before Christmas is tough and movement timelines have mostly been pushed out into Jan/Feb. High moisture wheat seems to be the talk of the town and we do have homes for tough product at a discount. Depending on the buyer the discounts range from a dollar figure per MT (i.e. $6/MT per % point over dry) to a percentage discount. Discounts usually increase in rate past ~16% as product moves from tough to wet. Milling wheat prices are quiet remaining in the $6.20 to $6.40 range delivered to elevator on #1 13.5pro. We have some milling durum pricing opportunities in the SE part of Sask for winter and into summer movement windows; check with your merchant for details to your farm.

 

There was some progress made in the flax harvest last week, but we have seen some quality issues.  For any later harvested production, it is crucial to get your samples sent in to help us better understand where and how to market your product. For those with #1 quality, $12.50 to $13.00/bu is available, while milling quality flax is bid at $14.00/bu picked up in many instances. Yellow flax still remains around $15.50/bu. Flax sales have been sporadic so far; volumes to China have been limited due to built up inventories and Kazakhstan is reporting a 6% increase in inventories compared to a year ago. There could be an increase in price potential if the harvest delays turned into actual crop loss. Finally, something to touch on is that US demand is expected to be quieter this year, limiting our opportunities there.

 

Well, for the most part, harvest was starting to wrap up in a good majority of the prairies… that is, before the white stuff started flying Friday night into Saturday morning putting a damper onto the conclusion of harvest. Friday morning reports indicated that barley harvest was 93% completed across Sask. For many farmers now, what’s left in the field will be coming off in Spring. On the pricing side, things seem to be holding steady sitting anywhere from $3.25 – $3.75/bu FOB farm. There is not a lot of wiggle room for anything prompt, for the most part you are looking at Nov/Dec movement. Look for the latter pricing to be paired with later movement, think new year. One thing to note when you’re talking to your merchant is knowing if your product is making weight and if it’s dry. Both of these numbers are critical to finding a home for your grain.

The pea market has seen little excitement when compared to last week. As harvest is slowly wrapping up, the bulk of the peas are already in the bin and the completion rate has essentially quit moving at 96%. Therefore, as per reports, the pea crop is now estimated to be 4.37 million tonnes. Looking at our export volumes, the bulk of the peas have been heading into China and when comparing other years, exports into China have usually increased during this time of the year. Current pricing on green peas is $9.00/bu FOB, yellow peas are $5.75-6.25/bu FOB depending on location, and maple peas are trading at $7.50/bu FOB.

 

This has been a very challenging year for farmers across the Great Plains as the weather hasn’t been cooperating with producers. The good news is that harvest is near completion because of a 2ish week stretch of favourable weather. That being said, the canaryseed market has not changed at all for roughly a month. The price has been very stagnan, but strong, and hanging around 30 c/lb FOB farm based on sound quality. As of October 21st, the canaryseed progress was reported to be 77% complete, behind the 10 year average of 80%. We suspect that number to have risen after the week following the report.  Canaryseed is a resilient crop and can with stand weather situations, which may be one reason buyers are not panicking to buy canaryseed at the moment.

 

Canola prices are stable this week as futures remain rangebound around $450/MT. Although most producers were able to get a good amount of combining done over the last couple weeks, we still have reports of unharvested canola. Reports of green, tough and down right ugly canola is hitting our phones as well… does this mean markets will react? Well, we hope so. For those who have this type of product, we do have buyers that will take it, so please get your specs and we will find you a bid. For those lucky enough to pull off #1 canola, we have bids in the $9.50/bu delivered bid on prompt movement, which may be a good option if you need bin space. We also have a buyer with a free storage contract available. This means you can deliver canola without locking in futures or basis, and price it out in the future. This alleviates storage risk such as heating. Talk with your merchant for all the details.

 

Soybean futures have been drifting lower since last week’s short rally. Market bulls are still hoping on a smaller US carryout number coupled with any forward advancement in the Chinese trade deal. Local soybean bids are trading in the range of $10.25-$10.50/bu picked up on farm. Dry bean harvest delays have kept the market reasonably supported. Harvest samples have started to roll in with early harvest product showing best quality. Faba quality appears to be variable once again this year. Top quality fabas, located in the right freight zone, have traded as high as $8.50/bu FOB farm.

Red lentils remain stable while large green lentils slip a little this week. Rumors circulated around the industry that a shipment of large green lentils destined for India have been rejected upon arrival. Whether this is true or not doesn’t really matter now, as the scare of similar situations happening has already hit the market. This translates into #2 large greens trading at 22 cents this week, down 2 pennies from Monday’s trades. We hoping this is a small stumbling block, things get sorted out and markets return to their upward trend, but this is to be seen. Red lentils still trade at 18 cents FOB for later movement and have not swayed for a couple weeks. The pulse market appears to be on shaky ground as any spooks or concerns from overseas seems to initiate a downward trend.

 

The oats market hasn’t been giving us much to talk about lately as guys are finally wrapping up their harvest. This isn’t necessarily a bad thing as the prices have remained stable at strong values. So far, Canadian farmers have delivered 660,000 MT into the market in the 2019-20 marketing year. This is a 90,000 MT increase when compared to the same time frame last year. This trend bodes well for farmers as we shouldn’t see a decline in prices over the next few months. Milling oats are trading between $3.40-$3.75/bu delivered into plant depending on location and movement timeframe. On the feed side of the market, indications are between $2.50-$2.75/bu FOB farm for a Nov/Dec movement period.

 

Prices have stayed similar to last week with some light trading in different mustard grades this week. Yellow mustard popped last week, and bids are stable at 38c/lb FOB farm on a #1 for movement early in the new year. Again, we are waiting to see mustard samples after the late harvest, but most are reporting they got it off this year. Brown mustard prices are still at 30c/lb FOB farm, and oriental, depending on variety, is bid between 23-25c/lb FOB farm. All pricing is based on #1 and is subject to sample acceptance. If you are ready to start thinking about next year’s crop plan, we have certified mustard seed available that can be treated and is all delivered to your yard. For new crop contracts, show us offers and we will bring them back to our buyers.

 

Chickpea exports are reported to be higher than last year with Pakistan being the catalyst behind it. There are rumors that the neighbouring countries to India have been importing more than usual and selling to India as way to get around tariffs. This is rumor and not sure how sustainable it is, if there is truth to it. Main export markets today for Canadian chickpeas are US, EU and Pakistan. Best practice is to watch these markets as opposed to India. Current values for #2 Kabuli range from $0.24-0.26/lb FOB with smaller sizes at a $0.02-0.03/lb discount. Desi market has finally picked up! No reported trades but the buyers are calling in looking for offers and asking about quality. There is not a lot of confidence in quality given the harvest weather so if you have it in the bin, get it graded. Good quality desi’s should add value to your book this year.

 

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.


Rayglen Market Comments – October 23, 2019

Canola prices maintain posture for another week and as the weather improves, we see harvest picking up in many locations throughout the Prairies. Concerns over green and high moisture are real, but the focus is not on marketing, rather, getting the product in the bin. Values today maintain around $9.65-$9.90/bu deld plant for OND with slight carry in the market for JFM at $10.00-$10.25/bu through June. Heated, green and off spec canola with high moisture trades steady around the $3.50/bu -$6.50//bu FOB farm range depending on percentages off each.

 

Lentil prices have had some movement over the last week, with red lentils at 18 cents picked up, small greens at 19 -19.5 cents delivered and large greens holding sideways at 24 cents picked up. Any lentils that have come off in recent weeks, will more than likely have some quality issues, but we do have prices for lower grades. Lentil movement through the Canadian handling systems has been positive over the last month, mostly due to the delays in harvest. At this time, import restrictions by the Indian government could hinder the future outlook. Australia’s crop estimate on red lentils is still positive regardless of the concerns of the other crops as the main lentil growing regions have potential. We could see some competition with Russia as new crop supplies become available and while we have seen a slight increase in lentil prices, this does not automatically translate to a long-term bullish market.

 

This past week has provided some decent enough weather for producers to get back in the field and resume harvest. We have seen a good amount of feed wheat coming off after the harvest delay and that doesn’t come as much of a surprise to most. The feed wheat market hasn’t faltered quite yet though and trading remains between $4.30 to $4.70/bu FOB farm. The milling market remains relatively stable as well, trading between $6.50 to $7.00/bu delivered to plants around Saskatchewan. Milling bids may see some life as more and more feed is reported, so make sure you keep in touch with your merchant. Milling durum is another commodity that is expected to remain firm throughout the year. #1 CWAD in the south east part of the province has traded as high as $9.00/bu FOB farm, although those bids seem to have slipped a little over the past couple weeks. Currently most of the Prairies are seeing bids in the $8.00 to $8.50/bu FOB farm range. We are asking producers to send in their durum specs so we can get you an accurate bid on your product. We also suggest getting firm targets posted into the new year to try and push these values.

 

There is some life sparked into the pea market late last week and early into this week. Larger variety green peas are trading at $9.00/bu Fob January – February and yellow peas had targets triggering at $6.25-6.50/bu FOB November – December. At the moment, green peas are still holding strong, but yellows have pulled back slightly. Green peas are holding this strength due to the tight supplies last year and the quality issues we are experiencing this year. We haven’t seen any overseas marketing changes that are looking to affect our market anytime soon. Therefore, locking in a target with your merchant is the way to go if your target price is close. Maple peas have been trading at $7.50/bu FOB and Dun peas are at $7.25 – $7.50/bu delivered.

 

The chickpea market is a bit of an enigma right now with a wide range on prices from lowly feed bids at 10 cents to #2 trading as high at 28 cents/lb picked up in the yard this week on the large kabuli types. Buyers are still concerned with sizing and want to know the general representation of 7mm sizing in the product as a starting point. There is still a fairly significant amount of chickpeas that have not been harvested at this time and the quality on the outstanding product is suspected to be poor. We have heard some combines getting into chickpeas, but in many areas combining is a matter of picking and choosing which parts of the field you won’t get stuck in, so it is a slow process. We have not heard many bids on desi type chickpeas in recent weeks, but reports suggest numbers are in the low twenties for those with binned product. 

 

Well, if you asked the farmers at the beginning of the year if they’d still be harvesting now, a good majority would have said, “no”, but boy oh boy, no one saw this lack of summer and rain/snow filled fall, not even the farmers almanac… we think. This has pushed canary harvest production behind and as of last week Friday, canary was reported to be 69% complete in Saskatchewan. A positive note being that we continue to hold a solid price of 30c/lb FOB farm. As more canary is moving off the farm and into the market, we are starting to see tighter margins of carry over and early indications point towards a stronger demand for canary world-wide, so stay tuned.

 

As harvest slowly progresses, we are starting to hear that the flax crop is finally making its way into the bin. Unfortunately, we are also hearing and seeing that quality is all over the map. Many samples are coming in light weight, which usually lowers the oil content, discolored, throwing it out of milling spec and others seem to be completely fine. Getting a pre-grade on your flax will be beneficial in making it easier to market. When you get your flax graded make sure to get the test weight, moisture, dockage and, if possible, oil content. Flax has lost a little steam this week with prices ranging between $13.50-$14.00/bu for milling quality and $13.00-$13.50 for #1. Lower quality flax buyers are asking to see the sample before providing a bid. Yellow flax is still in demand with trades triggering at $15.00 to $15.50/bu.  

 

The sideways trading of the oats market continues this week with very little happening price wise. Milling oats maintain a solid price amid concerns of quality around the prairies with this poor weather. The last week has provided some relief in Saskatchewan as combines have been rolling around most of the province and reports of some producers wrapping up harvest 2019 have been coming in. Milling oats are trading between $3.40-$3.75/bu delivered to plant. Feed quality oats are currently worth $2.50-$2.75/bu FOB farm as long as they are heavy and dry.

 

Compared to last week, the mustard markets are fairly flat, with an exception to yellow varieties. More interest in yellow mustard has popped up and bids have jumped to 38c/lb FOB farm on a #1. The quality this year is still generally unknown due to mustard being harvested late and taking a beating from the weather. It sounds like a few lots were taken off before the weather turned for the worst although, we haven’t seen many samples yet. Brown mustard prices are still at 30c/lb FOB farm, and oriental, depending on variety, is bid between 22-25c/lb FOB farm. All pricing is based on #1 and is subject to sample acceptance. If you are ready to start thinking about next years crop plan, we have certified mustard seed available that can be treated and is all delivered to your yard. For new crop contracts, show us offers and we will bring them back to our buyers.

 

Barley prices are stalled out this week, which we view as a positive. The past week has been great for weather and has a lot of growers back in the field finishing up harvest. This means more feed barley is likely to hit the market, so the fact that bids are stable is exciting, but we don’t expect that to hold for too long. Many reports from growers sound the same; they needed this week to get that last barley off no matter how flat it was! Movement on feed grains is being pushed back as feedlots remain bought up for October and now November, so we are looking into December or further out delivery periods. This isn’t all bad news though, as bids seem to have some carry for deferred delivery. Prices right now are anywhere between $3.25-$3.65/bu FOB farm Nov-Dec, depending on freight. We also have buyers looking for malt quality barley, so send us your samples.

 

Soybean futures continue to yo-yo due to crop conditions and delayed harvest. We also have no new news in China U.S. trade talks. Local soybean bids are trading in the range of $10.50/bu picked up on farm. Dry bean bids have held reasonably firm with harvest delays being reported in Western Canada and North Dakota. We are hearing faba quality variability from this year’s crop, some of which has been harvested whereas other geographies have yet to harvest. #2 faba bean bids continue to hover near $8.00/bu picked up.

 

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.


Rayglen Market Comments – October 16, 2019

One of the crops being heavily affected by this poor harvest weather is flax. September reports suggested flax harvest was still under 10% completed and as we reach mid-October, we suspect that number is still valid.  The small amounts of flax being taken off has had reports of quality and weight issues. With this, we have seen some life in the flax bids. #1 Brown flax has been trading at $14.00/bu FOB and milling quality yellow flax traded at $15.50/bu FOB. What will contain this upside in pricing is how the Russian and Kazakh crop’s come off. As of now, they appear to be affected by drought conditions which is supportive for our market. If this is the case, we could see flax prices staying strong into the 2019/2020 crop year.

 

As of October 7th, canaryseed harvest is approximately 50% complete, which is not out of line from previous years. Canaryseed is more resilient than other crops out there and we hope it can stand up to some of this poor weather. Estimated yield is around 23 bu/acre according to Sask Ag, up from 19 bu/acre from the previous month. The canaryseed price has been sitting around 30 c/lb for a while now. The reason the canaryseed price hasn’t risen above that 30-cent mark is because buyers are able to secure product at these levels. Canaryseed bids could firm up as producers raise their targets.

 

Local growers in the Moose Jaw area reported chickpea harvest 80% complete and 50% near Estevan. These tend to be the areas that are adversely affected by the weather conditions and notable. Sprouting is a part of the daily conversation at this point with values hovering around $0.10/lb for feed and/or pet food markets. #2 chickpea bid and ask has come together as we see $0.26-$0.27/lb FOB farm trades trigger. This is location and quality dependant of course, but worth setting a target if it is near your trigger price. Desi markets steadfast in the $0.20-0.21/lb FOB farm range, but we feel there is traction there with an offer. General feel is neither buy nor sell, parties don’t want to stick their neck out for fear of being “wrong”, so the trades are very cautious with slow moves.  

 

This week, feed barley prices remain stable. Harvest continues to be delayed as mother nature does her thing and buyers want to see how much is actually going to come off this year. The long-term forecast looks promising (for now) and lots of guys are back in the field. Some areas are quite advanced compared to others and with a stretch of good weather, we remain optimistic that this year’s harvest will be completed. Movement on feed grains is being pushed back as feedlots are bought up for October, so we are now looking into Nov-Dec, or further out, movement. This isn’t all bad news though, as bids seem to have some carry for deferred delivery. Prices right now are anywhere between $3.25-$3.65/bu FOB farm Nov-Dec, depending on freight. We also have buyers looking for malt quality barley, so send us your samples.

 

Pea harvest is still slowly progressing; however, most peas are already in the bin. Quality will most likely be deteriorated for anything left in the field and estimates based on previous years with similar harvest conditions/time line suggest quality will be as such: 19% #1 Canada, 59% #2 Canada and 22% #3 or lower. Looking at yields, Alberta reports lower values than StatsCan’s estimates, which has the 2019 crop coming in slightly below 4.5 million tonnes. Export has been strong for peas lately, but bids haven’t seen much change over the past week. Yellow peas are trading at $5.75 – $6.00/bu FOB, green peas are $8.00 – $8.25/bu FOB and maple peas are $7.00/bu FOB.

 

Oats continue to trade sideways this week. Latest reports show that oat harvest is sitting around 35% completed in Alberta, 50% completed in Saskatchewan and well, unfortunately, we’re waiting for Manitoba to dig themselves out of this latest bit of crazy weather to see where things sit for them. On the pricing side, everything seems to be holding steady with milling oats, trading between $3.40 – $3.75/bu delivered to plant. On the feed side, look for that $2.50 – $2.75/bu FOB farm. If you’re looking to lock in some new crop give your Rayglen agent a call as we have options available.

 

Large green lentils remain unchanged from last week. Product continues to trade at 24 cents FOB farm with a lack of 25 cent offers on our website triggering. The market seems to be comfortable at the 24-cent mark for now and sales are being made. Small green lentils hit 20 cents FOB farm if you’re willing to wait for Jan/Feb movement. Red lentils are also seeing bids at 18 cents FOB farm for that Jan/Feb movement. Large green lentils may be stalling out a little as the trade is telling us that Russia is selling greens for 18 cents CAD. This may hold lentils in check until the world uses up the Russian supply. Feed lentils range between 8 – 10 cents, and buyers don’t see much upside to this market as there seems to be a lot of supply. If you are unsure about marketing your lentils make sure to at least get your samples graded so you have the upper hand when marketing your grain.

 

The feed wheat market has shown some strength this week as harvest continues to be a very slow process. With the weather supposedly smartening up and allowing guys to get back in the fields, we should see some significant progress, finally. With that, we expect a glut of feed wheat becoming available to the market and that should knock values back down to lower numbers. This week’s feed wheat bids range from $4.30-$4.75/bu FOB farm. Milling quality spring wheat has slowly been rising price wise due to the large amount of feed wheat coming off. Today’s prices come in between $6.40-$6.90/bu delivered to plants all around the province. On the milling durum side of things, #1 CWAD has traded as high as $9/bu FOB farm in south east Saskatchewan, while the rest of the province hovers between $8-$8.50/bu FOB farm. This market has potential to climb up so be sure to call your merchant and put in your firm target.

 

It looks like the weather might finally improve for a week, and maybe give that mustard that is left in the field a chance to be harvested. We are waiting to see samples on the quality of mustard that is pulled off and if some still gets left behind. We are seeing a slight bump in spot yellow mustard. Yellow mustard is currently trading at 36 cents for quicker movement and higher for movement into the new year. Brown is still at 30 cents and oriental at 23.5 cents on Cutlass variety. All pricing is based on #1 grades and subject to sample acceptance. It may be time to talk to us about new crop contracting. Let us know what you are thinking for prices with an Act of God. We have also begun sales on all types of certified mustard seed delivered to your yard, both treated an un-treated. Call your merchant for more details.

 

Canola prices are still in the mostly sideways trend that they have been for quite a while. The November futures (which we will soon move off of into January) are remaining at about $460/MT in recent trade and have not wavered much in recent weeks. It sounds like harvest did perk back up in most areas late last week before snow and rain delayed things again, but canola is going to be one of the last crops off from most reports, due to lingering green. If the weather holds out for a few weeks of drier, as it is supposed to, we should be able to get a lot more of this crop actually in the bin and get a grasp on what our quality looks like. If the soybean markets continue to show some strength from progression in the China/US trade talks then we would hope that canola can ride the coat tails of soybeans a little.

Soybean futures are down a bit due to recent U.S. crop ratings not indicating big losses from last week’s U.S. cold snap. Furthermore, trade talks between China and the U.S. continue to tread water thus no one is feeding the bull market. Local soybean bids are trading in the range of $10.25-$10.50/bu picked up on farm. Dry bean bids have held reasonably firm with harvest delays being reported in Western Canada and North Dakota. We are hearing faba quality variability from this year’s crop. Some of which has been harvested whereas other geographies have yet to harvest. Exports are expected to wane a little this year as the rest of the globe resumes normal production levels. #2 faba bean bids continue to hover near $8.00/bu picked up.

 

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.


Rayglen Market Comments – October 9, 2019

The pea market has seen little to no change from last week and although harvest is progressing slowly, most of the peas are already in the bin. Chinese pricing for Canadian peas isn’t showing any strength right now, according to recent reports, and this is a good indication that we likely won’t see a large uptick in bids for the short term. We are also still competing with the Black Sea region and their shipment of peas into the European market, which poses a significant freight advantage when compared to Canada. Current trades are being done at $5.75-6.00/bu FOB on yellows, $8.00-8.25/bu FOB on greens and $7.00/bu FOB on maple peas. If you have dun peas in the bin $7.00/bu FOB is an indication worth targeting.

 

The constant start, stop, start and stop due to the weather has prolonged harvest and the quality that was maybe once there, is no more by this point. As a result, feed buyers continue to see an onslaught of product being shown to them. Feed wheat/durum is fetching anywhere in that $4.00 – $4.40/bu range depending on location. Now, on the opposite side of the spectrum, is the good quality product. CWRS with a 13.5% protein is pulling in $6.40 – $6.90/bu with the later for pushed out movement, delivered to plant. The topic everyone is talking about… #1 CWAD. These past couple of days pricing has been on the rise, but where it lands is anyone’s guess. We haven’t seen a lot of commitment on either the buyer or the seller side for pricing and selling. We have seen some $9.00/bu FOB farm trade in select locations though the market is fluctuating in that $8.00-$8.50/bu FOB farm for the most part. A strong play for this market is to call your merchant and put out a target to try and jump start buyers with quantity, quality and a firm price in mind. One thing to be aware of when you are looking for prices is to make sure you have had testing done on your product. Buyers are looking to know what they’re bidding on and variables such as falling number and sprouting are going to be vital.

 

There is no big news out of the canaryseed market this past week. Bids are still flat in the 30c/lb range with some opportunity for prompt delivery available. Trading has slowed in the canary market and we suspect this can be attributed to harvest delays and continued producer bullishness. Buyers have pulled quite a bit out of the bins already at 30 cents, now we wait to see how the rest of the crop year shakes out and if this market has more legs. Producers have been waiting for a surge in price like this one and should hedge some product at current values. There is no saying this market pushes higher, especially when current levels are still being rewarded with sales. There is still lots of canaryseed in the field and producers are waiting patiently to take in this year’s crop. We hope mother nature will cooperate in the upcoming weeks.

Flax prices are holding sideways this week and 2019 harvested acreage has been minimal so far, with the focus being on more vulnerable crops. As another snow fall makes its way through the prairies, delayed harvest reflects on the near-term price, with values of $13.50/bu picked up in the yard being bid for product that is in the bin. Yellow flax prices are near $14.00/bu picked up. Flax harvest in the US has been reported favorable and prices have dropped off in recent weeks. Flax movement has been fairly quiet, but the supply squeeze and delayed harvest is enough to boost prices. The latest snowfall will create some more challenges, so it’s hard to say where these flax prices will go. However, the biggest factor still remains the Black Sea region. If the Black Sea region has modest inventories of flax, we could see export competition decline.  

Unharvested chickpea quality is starting to crumble, and we may be seeing a slight bump in recent #2 bids because of it. For those who have product off, we have seen trades hitting the books at upwards of 26 cents/lb delivered for large kabuli varieties. Desi chickpeas are in the 20-cent range, with little grower interest. Yield estimates seem to vary due to some disease issues this year, but there is carry-over, which is what is keeping prices from rallying too strongly. The Indian market for kabuli and desi chickpeas is also showing very few signs of life. India has stockpiles of desi chickpeas so; those supplies will be moved first. The impact of the harvest delay will play a factor in pricing out any lower grade chickpeas and finding homes for lower grades could be a struggle. We do have some pricing opportunities now, but these values depend on specs, so please call your merchant or send in your samples.

 

Feed barley markets haven’t seen much change from last week. Continued poor harvest conditions are holding prices steady as we wait to see if the weather will cooperate. A lot of tough and sprouted grain has been seen in the Rayglen office, and we have buyers for both! Just make sure you know the percentages of each, so your merchant can find the best home for it. October movement is tough to find, but there is a slight chance if you lock something in near-term. For the most part bids are quoted as Nov-Dec now for $3.10-3.40/bu FOB farm. Holding until Jan-Mar 2020 captures $3.20-3.50/bu or April-June 2020 at $3.30-3.60/bu FOB farm depending on freight. If you have malt quality barley, make sure you are sending us samples, as we have malt buyers looking for product.

 

The canola futures are down a touch today, with November sitting at $465/MT. Rain/snow has once again delayed our canola harvest and the general comment we’ve been hearing is that very little has been harvested thus far. Some is swathed or standing (now lodged), which makes it a lot harder to get. Canola can take the weather better than a lot of other crops and we hope there aren’t too many quality issues but won’t know until the crop hits the bin. For the few that have been able to harvest, yield reports are good. On a pricing note if you are taking canola off and there is some green count in it, get a percentage and talk with your merchant as we have homes.

 

The mustard market as expected remains flat. As this harvest slowly continues along, it will be interesting to see what quality of mustard is pulled off and if some gets left behind. Will this start to impact prices? It will be interesting to see what happens. Yellow mustard is currently trading at 36c/lb FOB farm, brown at 30c/lb and oriental at 23.5c/lb on Cutlass variety. All pricing is based on #1 grades and subject to sample acceptance. It may be time to talk to us about new crop contracting. Let us know what you are thinking for prices with an Act of God. We have also begun sales on all types of certified mustard seed delivered to your yard, both treated an un-treated.

 

Little change has taken place in the oats market this week. There are expectations of significant amounts of snow falling in south central Manitoba, which will have an impact on the oats harvest moving forward. In Saskatchewan, we are roughly just over 50% done the oats harvest and the cold, wet weather will likely affect the quality of what’s left in the field. Milling quality oats are trading between $3.40-$3.75/bu delivered to plant depending on what area you’re in and what delivery timeframe you choose. Feed oats are trading between $2.50-$2.75/bu picked up in the yard.

 

As the US soybean crop rating continues to slide, the market is expecting the USDA to lower its production estimate on Thursday. Couple that with the lower stocks report from the beginning of the month and you have a slightly nervous market that continues to feed the bull. Planting pace in Brazil continues to lag which also adds optimism to the market. Local soybean bids are trading in the range of $10.25-$10.50/bu picked up on farm. We have had reports of new crop faba harvest in southern regions with very few of the northern acres in the bin. #2 faba bean bids continue to hover near $7.50/bu picked up. Dry bean bids have held reasonably firm with selling opportunities across a few local buyers.

 

Lentil markets are holding onto last week’s pricing for the most part. A few buyers have pulled back their small green bids, but 20 cent FOB farm is still available in certain locations. Large green lentils seem to be holding at 24 cents for #2 or better and reds remain quiet with no movement in value this week. Any lentils remaining in the field will most likely be feed quality and this is reflected in recent bids. Feed market values are all over the place depending on colour and location. Feed greens have seen bids as high as 11 cents on farm and reds as low as 8 cents with on farm pick-up.  Low grade lentils will see the most downward pressure as the industry feels there will be ample supply to meet demand.

 

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.


Rayglen Market Comments – October 2, 2019

Trades on canaryseed have slowed down over the past week or two as harvest across the province has ground to a halt due to weather issues. Prices remain at recent highs of 30 cents/lb FOB farm for those looking to cook while the pan is hot. We obviously have yet to see if increased harvesting will diminish the proverbial wind in the sails on this market or if it will keep floating along. The initial jump to 30 cents definitely cleaned out a decent amount of the canary that has been held onto for quite some time, so it might be a bit before sellers are ready to jump back into sales. If you have not moved anything at these values, there is no guarantee that we will be priced this high forever so moving at least some product now is likely the best play.

 

Flax harvest for 2019 has been minimal so far, with the focus being on more vulnerable crops. The delayed harvest has reflected on the near-term price, with values of $13.50/bu picked up in the yard being bid for product that is in the bin. Flax harvest in the US is also lagging, but not nearly as behind as western Canada with 60% harvested in North Dakota compared to 4% in Saskatchewan as of September 23rd reports. The US yields have been reported favorable and prices have dropped off in recent weeks. If the Black Sea region has modest inventories of flax, we could see export competition decline. While exports of flax have been quiet, the delayed harvest and lack of supply is enough to boost prices. How long these prices hold will depend on many factors in the upcoming months.

 

Well, this past weekend is one to forget as the weather continues to put a damper on this year’s harvest. The continued onslaught of rain and now add in the snow, has made what was out there for wheat, less than desirable. Meaning, more and more is moving into the feed market and the feed prices are starting to reflect that. The price range is varied, depending on your location, look to see pricing anywhere in that $4.00 – $4.35/bu FOB farm. Still better than the 2016 harvest that was moving in that $2.50/bu range. Good quality wheat and durum has been a little harder to come by. A CWRS with a 13.5 protein is fetching anywhere from $6.15 – $6.65 delivered into plant with the later for pushed out movement. As well, top tier durum may be quite the commodity to have right now as we aren’t seeing a slew of it moving in the market. Reports of top end durum are $8.25/bu FOB farm in SE Sask, but putting out an offer is never a bad idea to target the price you’re looking for.

 

Due to less than ideal weather, the oat harvest remains delayed and many producers are well behind their average pace at this point. This is reflected in the number of samples showing up in our office and a few buyers pushing to buy (unavailable) product. Thus far, 50% of the oat crop has been graded in the top two grades, which is lower than the 5-year average. We expect that number to dwindle even more as harvest commences, simply due to weathering in the field.  As of last week, about 25% of the oat crop was reported off and in the bin. The price on oats, maybe somewhat surprisingly, remains stable week to week, trading around $3.40 to $3.75/bu delivered to plant, based on milling spec. Feed oats are trading between $2.50 to $2.80/bu range FOB farm. When you are looking for the most current and up to date prices in your area, please call your Rayglen merchant.

Canola futures have edged up slightly, just over $3.50/MT. November futures sit at $454.1/mt this morning. The harvest delays and quality concerns from recent moisture and colder temperatures across the province remain supportive to the market. The prices have not jumped significantly due to forecasts calling for warmer and drier weather later in the week. Carry-over on old crop supplies and firmness on the Canadian dollar have also been weighing on values. What changes the market price? Supply talks only have a limited shelf life, while demand is mediocre, analysts write that the government dictates majority of purchasing behaviour. When trying to understand price behaviour, there is a difference between market ready supply and potential supply.

Bean futures have pulled back a bit after Mondays big jump based on the reported lower stocks. Traders remain nervous as they await more info on the 2019 US production level. Lack of fresh buying from China, where markets are closed through Oct. 7, continues to limit enthusiasm ahead of trade talks set to start up again next week. Brazil planting pace continues to run behind schedule. Local soybean bids are trading in the range of $10/bu picked up on farm. New crop faba harvest progress is spotty given current Canadian Prairies weather. #2 faba bean bids continue to hover near $7.25-$7.50/bu delivered. Dry bean harvest samples are rolling in and quality appears to be good. Dry bean bids have held reasonably firm with selling opportunities across a few local buyers.

 

The large green lentil markets continue to strengthen for #2 or better product, with bids at 24c/lb picked up at the farm. Small greens are trading at 18c/lb on farm, with some potential for better bids based on high quality #1’s. Green lentils should have the most upside out of all the lentils as we assume quality will be the major talk this year. The question now is if green lentils carry their cousins, red lentils, along for the ride? So far, we have not seen this take place. That being said, red and greens are different markets and we don’t expect the reds to take off as quickly. The reds are still being hampered by tariffs and smaller demand.  Until India becomes a major player in reds again, don’t expect big improvements in the market, but rather, watch for the small blips when buyers may be covering shorts.

 

Feed barley markets are stable this week. As snow and rain continue to hit the prairie provinces over the weekend, harvest gets pushed back once again. The long-term forecast seems to look good so far with no rain in sight, so maybe October will be the lucky month. Buyers have filled up October movement as of right now, so we are looking into Nov/Dec for movement, or into the winter months where you will see a slight premium if you can hold onto it that long. Prices this week on Nov/Dec movement are around $3-3.40/bu FOB farm, while Jan-Mar movement is between $3.25-3.60/bu FOB farm, both depending on location. The malt market has made a bit of a come back, so if you have malt quality talk to your merchant or call into the office for more information.

 

The pea market has not seen much of a change since last week. The Black Sea region is still supplying a good amount of peas into the European market and with Canadian peas being a higher value, we won’t see a lot hit the European feed market until later in the marketing year, as per reports. Current pricing on peas are at $5.75-6.00/bu FOB, green peas at $8.00/bu FOB and maples peas at $7.00/bu FOB. Depending on location, we may be able to push a little higher on green peas if the quality is good. There have been some reports of earth tag in all varieties, which is downgrading product, however, as samples are rolling in, we see the majority of peas harvested before the late rains being decent quality.

 

We’ve noticed a blip in the market when it comes to chickpeas but have not been able to decipher if it is market move or a short cover. #2 or better Chickpeas are rumored to trigger at $0.25/lb FOB for a longer shipping period and limited tonnage. Despite this information, and clear jump from last weeks $0.22/lb, it is like a ghost town when trying to find sellers or even resellers. Something is going on that we cannot put our finger on, but some thoughts are, posturing for the ANUGA conference in Germany coming up, a play at seed sales for the coming crop year or covering of a short. This could also be a long shot market speculation. Either way, its feels unstable. Desi chickpeas finally have a $0.20/lb FOB farm value behind it, but these levels do not translate to a sell yet. It is good news that they are back on the radar though and we will continue to poke for further bids and information. Feed chickpeas remain steady at $0.10/lb.

 

The mustard market remains flat this week. The next area to possibly concern buyers could be the weather. As we all know, the serious snow storm last week may have impacted remaining mustard left in the field. How many acres were caught out prior to the storm system?  As this harvest slowly continues along, it will be interesting to see what quality of mustard is pulled off and if some gets left behind possibly. Yellow mustard is currently trading at 36c/lb FOB farm, brown at 30c/lb and oriental at 23.5c/lb on Cutlass variety. All pricing is based on #1 grades and subject to sample acceptance. Call the office for seed needs as pricing should be set shortly and as we move into October harvest hopefully wraps up for many more growers.

 

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.


Rayglen Market Comments – September 25, 2019

As of Sept 9th, chickpea harvest was only 9% complete vs 63% last year and 30% on a 10-year average. It is no surprise that the slower pace of harvest equates the unavailability of good quality chickpeas and a more available supply of pet food and feed market product. Canadian exports numbers showed a 26% increase of export compared to 116,000MTS in 2017/18 but we still are met with a lack luster response when predicting chickpea values for the current production. Australian production is almost identical to last year and while the USDA reported smaller crop, there is still a great deal of carry to eat through before anyone gets excited. Current #2 Kabuli bids sit around $0.22/lb FOB farm and $0.19/lb FOB for smaller varieties. Feed values are sitting @ 0.10/lb FOB farm. Desi chickpeas remain a mystery for yet another week as we continue to push for clarity in that market.

 

Dry bean yields were estimated at 38.5bu/acre for the 2019 production, but since have been revised to 37 bu/acre, which is still a record yield according to StatsCan. This is inclusive of pinto, black and navy. Larger exports are expected for the coming year, which could expand even further as heavy rainfalls continue in North Dakota, Southern Manitoba and Northwest Minnesota. North Dakota is 28% complete harvest vs. the 5-year average of 59%; Minnesota at 20% complete vs. the 5-year average of 64% and lastly, Manitoba being 6% vs 62% on a 3-year average. Seeded area in Mexico is reportedly down 21%, which would mean they should produce the smallest crop since 2011 with a production of 663,000 MTS. Local soybean bids are still trading in the range of $9.25-$9.50/bu FOB farm. New crop #2 faba bean bids continue to hover near $7.00-$7.50/bu FOB farm.

 

There is some interest being shown in the flax market this week for product that is in the bin. $14.00/bu delivered on brown flax is available but must be harvested as movement is prompt. With the delays in harvest, buyers are behind on filling some orders. We most likely will see prices fall back once the majority of flax is harvested. The other factor that will affect prices is the crop outcome in the Black Sea region. We will either see a flat market if their crop is sizeable, or if yields are reduced, we could see some spikes in prices, but it will take awhile for that to filter into the Canadian market. Yellow flax prices have been holding steady in the $13.00-$13.25/bu range picked up. To keep up to date on price alerts, make sure you are getting our text or emails.

 

Feed barley continues a downward trend once again this week. Buyers are being shown a tremendous amount of feed barley after wide spread rain. We are starting to see sprouted product as well, which you have to be careful with, as some buyers will start discounting after 25% sprouted. Rejected malt is also making its way into the market, plugging it up even more. Immediate movement is getting harder to find, so make sure if you need bin space, you get some on the books. Prices this week are anywhere between $3-3.40/bu FOB farm depending on freight and product must be heavy and dry for movement by end of December. There are discounts for lighter or tougher grain, just talk with your merchant on what you have. If you can hold the product into the new year, AKA Jan-Mar, you will see a bit of a premium.

 

There have been constant delays this harvest, as rain, rain and more rain continues to be a thorn in the backside of producers. These delays are costly and frustrating for farmers, not to mention downgrading on all crops. There is a lot of feed wheat and durum that is currently hitting the market and we suspect more to come. Large lots of product continue to be booked at $4.40 to $4.50/bu FOB farm range with buyers starting to get skittish and bids tougher to find day by day. Movement windows get pushed further out each day as well and for the most part, buyers want to see J/F/M 2020 product now. It would not be a bad idea to pre-sell some bushels before this feed wheat market drops even more.  For good quality durum, there have been some bids around $8.00/bu delivered in the south-central part of the province, while milling wheat continues to hover in the $6/bu range.

The canola market continues a fairly sideways week with values working back to anywhere from $9.35/bu to $10/bu delivered to plant in most areas. There is not much for new crop off at this point as lots of canola is still standing (or in the swath) around the country waiting for the weather to smarten up to allow harvest to resume (or begin in some extreme cases).  Obviously, the trade situation between Canada and China remains strained due to the ongoing trade spat between the US and China so we sit and wait for better days. Near term frost warnings raise concern for some of the green canola, but time will tell as to what damage, if any, that causes.

 

Harvest is slowly progressing as our current weather conditions continue to delay combining. In Saskatchewan, as per Stat reports, the pea crop is 80%, behind our ten-year average of 94%. We are still determining how these late rains and cold weather are going to affect the quality of the peas in the field. However, we can expect more peas moving into the feed market, especially any green peas that have yet to be harvested. Bids are sitting at harvest lows and may take a while to see any upside, as the Black sea region is moving their product into Europe at a discount to Canadian values. Currently, yellow peas are at $5.75/bu FOB, green peas are $7.50-8.00/bu FOB and maples peas are at $7.00/bu FOB.

 

Lentil harvest is progressing at about 70% complete in Saskatchewan. Any samples received here at Rayglen before the rain, quality was good; however, any lentils coming off now are starting to have issues with colour, wrinkle and sprouting. As more off grade product comes to the table, especially green lentils, we see upside potential in good quality #1 & #2 large greens and #1 small greens. Current pricing is at 22-22.5 cents FOB on #2 large greens and 18 cents FOB on #1 small greens. Red lentils have yet to see much upside, with pricing ranging from 16-17 cents FOB. Red lentil markets still have the threat of rising tariffs into India lingering overhead, which is going to hold pricing at bay for the meantime.

 

This poor harvest weather is not making it pretty for the oat crop right now as we are hearing reports of roughly 25% in the bin. We have seen a slight increase in prices from last week, as milling oats are trading in that $3.40 – $3.75/bu delivered to plant with the better price for pushed out movement and near the Saskatchewan/Manitoba boarder. As well, you can lock in some 2020 new crop oats at $3.45 delivered to plant for Oct-Nov movement. On the feed side oats are trading in that $2.50 – $2.80/bu range FOB farm, depending on location. Call your Rayglen agent for area specific bids.

The canaryseed market has maintained its strength, but due to lots of booking, delivery timeframes have been getting stretched out into Jan-Feb 2020. Despite some minor adjustments on expected production and continued delay in the 2019 harvest, trading is still taking place at 30 cents/lb FOB farm for those later movement periods. Some options do exist for a quicker movement at a slightly lower price. While there is lots of speculation this market could potentially move a bit higher, it’s not a bad idea to get some of your production locked in as a starting point at today’s values.

 

The mustard market remains flat this week with no price change. As of September 16th, Saskatchewan’s mustard harvest is 24% complete, well behind our 10-year average and the slowest pace since we started keeping such statistics. As this harvest slowly continues along, it’ll be interesting to see what quality of mustard is pulled off. For right now, yellow mustard is trading at 36 cents/lb FOB farm, brown at 30 cents/lb FOB farm, and oriental at 23 cent/lb FOB Farm. All pricing is based on #1 grades and subject to sample acceptance.

 

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.


Rayglen Market Comments – September 19, 2019

As harvest slowly progresses, feed wheat/durum volumes keep rising. Feed pricing is being affected every day as more tonnage keeps getting moved into the market. Today, prices are trading at $4.25-4.80/bu FOB with the stronger pricing in the South West of Saskatchewan. If you are harvesting wheat and durum right now, marketing a few bushels/acres as a hedge seems to be a good a strategy. Locking in some product will secure a movement window and we may see prices that start with a three near term. We suspect some upside in the good quality milling durum markets and producers that were able to harvest #1 grade before the rain, or have some in the bin, may consider holding. Currently, we are seeing product trade in South Central Saskatchewan trading at $8.00/bu delivered.

 

Flax markets have been stagnant for a while now, which can be attributed to very little export demand. Thin carry in supply and slow harvest progress, preventing new crop product from hitting the market, seems to be holing bids steady. China has recently approved imports of flax by rail from Kazakhstan, adding more competition in the Chinese market. Subsequently, this will provide less flax to the European market, potentially opening up new opportunities for high quality milling flax. Flax bids have been quoted in the range of $12.25 to $12.75/bu FOB farm this week, based on milling quality. Yellow flax bids remain unchanged, and trades continue to hit the books around $13.00/bu picked up.

 

As of September 9th, Sask Ag showed 63% of Canadian lentils harvested. With rains occurring around most of the province last week, we could be seeing some quality issues on what is left in the field. The latest estimate form the Australian lentil crop came in 20,000 tonnes more from last year, but is not seen as burdensome, as Australian exports have been strong to move out old-crop supplies as per analysts. The Indian market could have some serious trade issues as the Indian ministry is recommending import tariffs raise to 70% from 30% on all lentil imports. This is in response from Canada and Australia “dumping” lentils. If this action follows through, there will be further disruptions in the trade. As far as pricing goes, we have bids for all lentils of all grades. There have been some rising bids on large green lentils, but not so much for other lentils even with some harvest challenges.

 

News of sprouting chickpeas over the last few days has perked up the conversation when it comes to market value. General thoughts are that this will largely affect the pet food and feed side of the market but how it impacts commercial quality remains to be seen. It Is hard to believe that it won’t have some effect on the value, but it is doubtful that we will see values of the last 2 years come back to the table. Recommend the best approach is to understand the quality of chickpea you have. Get the size breakdown, know your moisture levels and understand the downgrading factors if any and market it with all information in hand. There will be a mishmash of quality out there this year with what was in the bins and what is still in the field so look for opportunity knowing what you are selling.

 

Harvest proceeds slowly across the province this week and the mustard market brings us little change or news. The last progress report stated 20% of Saskatchewan’s mustard had been harvested. At the same time in 2018, we were sitting at 70% harvested across the province. As more yield numbers and samples roll in over the next few weeks, buyers should get a better understanding of what’s out there and the market will react accordingly. Spot mustard prices today are 36 cents/lb FOB farm for yellow, 30 cents/lb FOB farm for brown, and 23 cents/lb FOB farm for oriental. As always, we will have a good supply of certified seed this year so be sure to check in with your merchant on a price delivered to your yard.

 

Poor weather conditions continue to delay pea harvest province wide. Concern over quality is the main topic of conversation and as the days tick past one would expect that this should help put legs on a stale market. From the buyers interest we have seen continued support on green peas at $7.75-$8/bu FOB farm range with relatively quick shipment. Yellow peas are steady in the mid to high $5/bu FOB value and maples peas steady in the $7.50-$8/bu range. On an international level it is not going unnoticed that the value of a Canadian Yellow pea is down, and it is suspected that India has been importing through Bangladesh to capture these values. General feel is that China will again be a buyer but not from a “need” standpoint, rather, the price is right. Without India being back at the table it is expected that yellow pea prices will continue to be a long game.

 

The feed barley market has faltered a little on price this week as the supply demand scale took a dramatic shift with the poor weather we have received. Feed bids on barley are down into the low to mid $3’s range now depending on location of farm. West is still best on pricing at this time, but feedlot alley is filling up fast so price parity from east to west may be on the horizon. If you’re a feed seller, then time is of the essence as more and more downgraded product hits this market and hurts our values. We have maltsters looking for samples to be submitted on values in the mid- $4’s to $5/bu mark delivered to facility, which is a solid premium to the feed values on today’s snapshot.

 

The Saskatchewan Crop Report from last week stated that 11% of the oat harvest is complete. This is well behind last year’s progress when we were 43% done at the same time. Statistics Canada released their model-based yield projection, which is predicting this year’s yield to be 4.016 MMT, 800K MT more than the five-year average. At this point the market seems to unsure whether the increased tonnage is enough to offset any possible quality issues. With little oat harvest completed the quality of this year’s crop is still very uncertain. Until we see more samples or field more calls on oats, don’t except much in the markets to change. Markets for milling quality oats are trading in the 3.30-$3.45/bus range delivered plant for a milling quality and feed oats this week have been trading at $2.50/bus.

 

The canola market again remains quiet. On the trade front, there has been rumors out there about an imminent deal between China and the US, but nothing firm as of yet. Rains again have delayed the canola harvest and potential for frost becomes more likely every day. So, we will be dealing with quality issues perhaps as time moves on and mid-September has already passed us. Local bids continue to range between $9.75-$10/bu delivered in for movement this year with deferred options available above $10/bu delivered in.

 

Strong trading continues from last week to this in the canary market. 30c/lb FOB farm seems to be the magic number to pulling some of that underreported farm stock into the market with prices maintaining a steady hold. This is only the 4th time in the last 25 years that canary has made it to that 30c/lb level. How long does this last? Do we see a price drop/maintain or increase once the canary harvest starts? If you’re in limbo, it’s a safe bet to move some into the market to hedge your bets at this historically high price. All in all, canary, the cream of this year’s crop, maintains its place on top.

 

Soybeans searching for market support amidst the “kick the can down the road” trade deal news and debates over yield prospects. USDA continues to announce soybean sales to China, which at this point amount to token purchases relative to what was once sought by China. Soybean production will be sharply lower for 2019 but even the bullish report Sept. 12 may have limited impact until demand improves or yields fall in South America. Local soybean bids are trading in the range of $10/bu picked up on farm. New crop faba harvest is yet to get rolling. #2 faba bean bids continue to hover near $7.25-$7.50/bu delivered. Dry bean harvest is underway in Alberta and dry bean bids have held reasonably firm with selling opportunities across a few local buyers.

 

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.

 


Rayglen Market Comments – September 12, 2019

Late rains and frost have been delaying harvest and boosting the amount of wheat and durum we are now expecting to move into the feed market. Feed prices may not be as strong as they were a month ago, but prices are still attractive. Depending on location, feed wheat and durum have been trading at $4.50-5.00/bu FOB, with the odd bid coming in north of $5 for prompt movement. Compared to the #1 wheat market that is closer to $5.50-5.75/bu delivered, feed is looking like a viable option. Durum, on the other side, is seeing some upside. If you’re in Southeast Saskatchewan $7.00/bu FOB is achievable on a milling quality. If $7 is your mark, but you’re not in the Southeast, try out a target with your merchant.

Flax development is delayed as per the latest Sask Ag report, but analysts are still predicting above average yields. Ending stocks for 2019/20 are forecasted to be slightly below last year due to tight carry-over form 2018/19. Chinese inventories are built up, so we can expect prices to remain sideways for the interim. Milling flax prices are sitting around $12.25-$12.50/bu. Yellow flax prices remain around $13.00/bu picked up. The Black Sea region is still a mystery with the 2019 flax potential confirmations still under wrap. If the Black Sea region yields poor, then we may see some upside in prices, for now the market will remain flat.

Lentil harvest is underway with some areas making good progress, while others struggle to make any headway at all. The Saskatchewan Crop report has 25% of lentils harvested, that is 50% behind from this time last year. With harvest progress being delayed we are seeing large green lentil and small green lentil prices stabilize, this is mostly due to buyers becoming concerned that later combined crops may have quality issues. Red lentils are still facing major market and harvest pressure. Samples that have been submitted to office to date seem to be of #2 or better quality; most of these were harvested before last week.  We have not seen many red samples yet. Large green lentils are trading at 20 cents picked up in the yard, small greens at 16 cents picked up and red lentil pricing has been very quiet and hard to nail down. Estimated value is around 16 cents picked up. Finding prices on US origin lentils is also getting tough. If you’re looking to trade red lentils and US origin grain, target pricing is likely the best option.

Chickpea markets are seeing some action but not when it comes to #2 or even #3 quality. Feed and sample grade have been trading in the $0.11-$0.13/lb range and there is appetite for more at these levels.  Commercial trade for #2 or better is still very quiet. Typically, there will be some business done during or after the Canadian Specialty Crop Association conference every year, but with the delays in harvest, quality concerns and supply and demand figures being what they are, everything remains flatlined. Desi chickpeas are unchanged as well. If chickpeas are a commodity you want to get off the farm first this year, offers are going to be your best bet.

The market hasn’t reacted to strongly to last week’s StatsCan report on mustard. The modest 10% reduction in total supply compared to last year has not disrupted the market either way. There could be a slight tightening of stocks as time goes on, but nothing to move the market yet. We will see how this plays out regarding price as we get into fall. We are getting a few yield reports on mustard now in the southwest part of the province, but still seems a little behind schedule due to drought and the very slow start. Rain showers over the past few days continue, which certainly has not helped. Brown mustard prices still might be considered at 29-30c/lb FOB range, with spot yellow mustard bids remaining at the 36c/lb range FOB. Oriental mustard again stays at the 23c/lb FOB range for old crop. Already…. even though its early, please inquire about seed delivered to the yard for next season. 

The yellow pea market has seen seldom trade over the past week as harvest continues to provide pressure. However, green peas did see some movement with close to $8.00/bu FOB achievable. We have also seen some product move up from the US as bids hit $5.50/bu USD, picked up on farm. As for yellow market, $5.50/bu CAD and sub $4.00/bu USD isn’t providing a whole lot of grower interest. Finally, in the specialty pea market, bids and interest remain tapered on an expected large production year. Specifically, the maple pea market continues to slip with $7.50/bu the most common bid. To lock in movement, we highly recommend signing up a few bushels of your maple peas if you haven’t already as we suspect this market has the most potential to fall apart.  At this point, pea markets in general aren’t showing many signs of improvement.

The barley market has been slipping in value as harvest shrugs along. Current trades for feed barley have been between $3.50 – $4.00/bu range picked up with movement being pushed to winter months for the most part. That is a far cry from where it was trading earlier on in the year, but still a great value considering the large number of planted acres and current yield reports. The closer you are to the Alberta border, the more likely you are to get into that $4/bu range. Recent widespread rains have stalled harvest and are likely to push malt destined barely into the feed side, another bearish factor to watch out for. As producer reports flow in, we remind growers to get the test weight and moisture checked to avoid any discounts and surprises after shipping. Feed barley weight is a minimum 48 lbs, while moisture needs to be 14.8%. It is expected this year that shipments of US corn into southern Alberta will be virtually nonexistent due to the larger barley crop this year. This year’s crop is expected to be up 15% from the previous year and is the largest since 2013.

Well it looks like we survived early frost warnings with little to no harm across the prairies. The next challenge we must face is this rain that seems to keep slowing us down on the daily. We have not heard much for harvest reports on oats as most remains in the field, trying to mature. Crops being quite late this year in some areas doesn’t bode well with rain/frost either. Right now, prices are holding firm and may continue too if the crop doesn’t make it in the bin.  Old crop feed oats that are good and heavy range between $2.70-2.90/bu FOB farm in value. Milling oat markets hover in the $3.75/bu delivered to plant ballpark and growers are encouraged to talk with a merchant about a picked-up price. New crop bids around are around $3.65/bu delivered on milling quality, while feed oats are being bid at $2.70/bu FOB farm in certain locations.

The story on canola continues to be the same this week with very little happening. Lower expected production this year doesn’t seem to be making much headway against trade restrictions with China. Wet conditions in much of the province has delayed the canola harvest and potential for frost becomes more likely every day. This leaves big question marks on what the quality of this year’s canola will look like moving forward. Local bids continue to range between $9.50-$9.75/bu delivered in for a quicker movement with deferred options available at and above $10/bu delivered in.

Canary continues to be one of the shining stars this harvest season. The 70,000mt production report from StatsCan helps bolster this number as this small crop is comparative in size to that of the prairie drought year of ‘88. Now that’s putting things into perspective. With tight production numbers we may see the ever elusive on farm stock, that’s been stashed away, finally come into play. No matter how you cut it, canary will continue to garner premium pricing for sound quality. Right now, you can still sign up new crop with an act of God for 26.5c/lb FOB farm with old crop pricing standing by its side. The future looks bright for this commodity!

The Canadian bean crop has had some conflicting reports. Some are favorable for Ontario, but like reports out of Manitoba, there are large differences in crop development. The recent rains in western Canada may be too late to help the dry bean crop. Analysts predict the yield could come in below the 5-year average, leaving tonnage 9% less than last year. The US bean crop has stabilized, export demand remains slow and the environment is likely to continue this way unless an agreement is reached in US – China trade. The Mexican bean crop is behind as far as seeding goes and if there is a reduction in final seeded area, this could result in more demand for Canadian and US beans, mainly pinto and black beans. Prices will vary on the type of bean, so call our office with what you have.

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.


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