The canaryseed market remains without much change this week, but many wonder if it is only a matter of time before we see adjustments. Old crop is trading around $0.37/lb FOB farm depending on area and timeframe of delivery, but demand does not appear to be deep at these values. We suspect once they get a bit more tonnage locked up values may soften further. Now onto the new crop side of things, there are still some $0.35/lb FOB farm act of God contracts available today and buyers are willing to lock in the first 10 – 15 bushels an acre on this program. This opportunity seems like a win this week and we suggest getting something on the books. Not only will you be locking in a great new crop value, but you’ll also get some early movement, early cash flow, and a sense of relief knowing you have the AOG should things go south during the growing season. The same thought rings true for new crop – once buyers lock in some acres and tonnage, we think a drop in price is inevitable.
Old and new crop mustard bookings continue to hold a steady pace throughout January. Spot trading has been historically strong, with values quoted at $1.27/lb for yellow, $1.23/lb for brown, and $1.20/lb for oriental this week. New crop contracts also continue to see strong pricing, with $0.80/lb for yellow, $0.70/lb for brown and $0.78/lb for oriental being bid. Despite historically strong prices, as farmers continue to commit new crop acres and sell old crop product, buyers have not shied away from pulling back their bids on a weekly, if not daily, basis. With some estimates as high as 600,000 acres for 2023 seeded area, even a slight increase to 575,000 acres and a normal yield could build the supplies to the highest they’ve been since 2004/05. With Canada’s average mustard usage at roughly 130,000 tonnes, the expected acres and normal yield could push these supplies to over 260,000 tonnes. The combination of high acreage and old crop carryover could result in heavy mustard supplies in Canada, so we encourage growers to take advantage of the strong pricing while it is still available. We have seen recent success on firm offers for old crop, so keep in mind this is an option for product that’s still in the bins. Lastly, a reminder that new crop contracts include an Act of God on 10bu/acre, and we have available seed with treatment options on all mustard types.
Wheat prices are down again this week with indications around $11.25/bu delivered on a #1 HRS, with CPS red just under $11.00/bu. US wheat exports are down 7% according to the USDA. Domestic supplies are tight; however, this is off set by a larger crop in Russia that has deeper discounts to the world market. Other record-breaking wheat crops include Brazil and Australia which has reduced US wheat sales into some overseas markets. Feed wheat prices are mostly sideways valued in the $10.00/bu picked up range depending on area and movement. Like all the other markets this week, durum prices are also sliding, whether justified or not. Call our office for the latest price out of your area.
Flax prices continue to search for the floor with values peeling back some more this week. Buyer bids sit around $17.50/bu delivered in central Sask for movement over the next couple months. With a good chunk still on farm, producers may be looking at putting a birthday candle on this harvested crop. Many producers are putting pen to paper figuring out this upcoming years’ acreage rotation and flax is not coming out smelling like a rose. Tough to pencil in a crop that’s projected at a loss at current pricing, and as such, the expectation is for acres to be down. Overseas Russia and Kazak crops continue to feed China, making Canadian product predominantly a domestic commodity. Back in 2014, the Black Sea accounted for 500,000MT in the market; this past year production nearly reached 2.5MMT. That’s a huge number and it doesn’t bode well for Canadian flax.
The canola market has pushed down through the $800/MT floor this week and now, at time of writing, trades around $795/MT on most trading months out through July. The futures market has basically zero carry from the March through to the July, so the only advantage to hold today through to the summer would be if the basis levels from your buyer make it worth your while. In that line of thinking, we do see a few buyers that have sharpened basis levels leading into the summer, but those mostly show a $5 to $15/MT advantage. So, it’s not a big gain, but maybe worth considering. The Chinese buying seems to be back up and rolling and stocks are not terribly deep, but the futures markets will, in large, lean on what the soybean market dictates. Thusly, we rely on world news on soybean supply and demand to provide external pressure, be it positive or negative.
Chickpea markets have been on a slide to start this week. Many buyers seem to be dropping their bid by 1-2 cents/lb after every purchase they make, confirming our, “fill and kill,” comments from last week. Current bids reflect 55 cents/lb FOB farm for #2 chickpeas with max 10% 7 mm sizing. This is a shallow market and likely continues to fall once a few loads get bought, so if you’re in need of moving a few chickpeas, now may be the time to pull the trigger. On the new crop side of things, contracts are still available for movement in the fall. Prices are around 45-46 cents/lb FOB farm for #2 chickpeas with an AOG on 10 bu/acre. Again, this is a volatile market, so be sure to touch base with your merchant to get current prices in your area.
Very little news in the oats market again this week, which has been the trend for a while. Many buyers have filled up their programs for this crop year, although there could be some small purchasing later in the year to fill in some holes. This will be small amounts and unlikely to move markets in any significant way. Indications for old crop continue to be around that $4/bushel mark for milling quality, but actual bids have been tough to come across. The market will have to chew through a significant supply before we see any price improvements. New crop oat bids are falling as well as producers are signing up to ensure movement. Bids are down to $4-$4.50/bu delivered for movement out into spring of 2024.
A bit of flurry over the last week as reports coming out of Australia indicate that their lentil crop is large and ready for export. Turkey has been reporting trades equivalent to $0.28/lb FOB farm in Canada on reds which is adding pressure to spot values. Bids have slipped across the board with #2 reds trading around $0.30-0.31/lb FOB farm depending on area and time of movement. Expect opportunistic trading to happen in the nearby with a slight pop to value, otherwise bids will remain subdued. New crop reds have also been on topic, but we’re not finding buyers and/or sellers actually willing to trigger anything. Old crop large green lentils have slipped a little trading around $0.50/lb FOB farm for a #2. Export markets have gone radio silent on purchasing, and domestic markets are gun-shy to take long positions with such a definitive spread between reds and greens that most believe should tighten up. Old crop small green lentils are still in demand around $0.50/lb FOB farm, but not as heavily as weeks past. Seems the boots are starting to fill, and interest is starting to fade. Both large and small green new crop bids are active at around $0.40/lb FOB farm with an AOG and Sept-December movement. If reds and greens need a smaller spread to entice trade, we could see these values shift down. If green lentils are in the rotation, it might not be a bad idea to lock in some acres.
Soybean futures started today’s trading session down due to rain in Argentina, subdued Chinese demand, and an expected big Brazilian crop. That said, a mid-session turnaround was staged predicated on an unknown purchase reported by the USDA. Local market is in the range of $16.75-$17.25/bu FOB farm. Overall, North American dry bean production is up year over year with exceptions existing in specific classes of dry beans. Exports have lagged and inventories are thus a bit heavier. Production concerns in key dry bean producing countries may provide an opportunity to export and thus reduce current inventory. New crop dry bean contracts are available with price points ranging from 46¢/lb on larger more common classes to 70¢/lb on specific specialty classes. Aussie new crop faba exports have lagged last year’s pace, but is in line with historical pace. Feed quality fabas continue to be supported by pet food values. Local bids with export quality #2 faba bids being in the range of $13.00-$13.50/bu FOB farm and feed quality values are near $10.00-$10.50/bu FOB farm location dependent.
Barley prices remain stable compared to other markets, but are starting to feel some downside pressure as well. There is still some movement options left for February-March shipping, but most buyers would rather see April through June. Trades this week have been as high as $8.00/bu for Swift Current area with freight playing a bigger role as you move east. New crop bids in southeast Sask are quoted as high as $6.75/bu for Sept-Oct movement on a deferred delivery contract. Malt prices seem to be in the $8.50/bu to $9.00/bu delivered range if you can find some willing to buy. Maltsters seem to have most of their supply needs meet, which in turn will keep prices from moving up. That seems to be influencing companies from releasing new crop pricing. If there is extra carry over, malting companies may continue to hold off on releasing new crop contracts as they don’t feel the need to encourage acres; hence the reason that we don’t have a lot of new crop pricing yet. That said, we do have one indication at $7.50/bu delivered plant with an AOG or $8.00/bu delivered plant on a deferred delivery contract (no act of God). If you wish to pursue a sale into this program, give your merchant a call.
Pea markets are sitting fairly flat this week. Green peas remain around $13.50/bushel FOB farm in most locations for max 3% bleach, but we are getting solid bids for peas with higher bleach percentages. Those with higher bleach product, please call with specs so we can accurately quote values. Yellow peas are trading around $12/bu FOB farm for the most part, but there may be small opportunities to trade values closer to $12.50 FOB in the right location and with some longer delivery windows. We have seen some strong new crop yellow pea programs in SE Sask/Manitoba this week as well, with bids at $12.00-12.50/bu FOB, dependent on movement period, including a 15bu/acre Act of God. Acres are limited, so if you have interest, call now. New crop green bids are quiet still, which is not uncommon for this time of year. Spot prices on maple peas sit between $17.00-19.00/bu delivered, location and variety dependent; FOB farm options are available, call with location. New crop maple programs remain few and far between and we suggest growers use firm targets to try and get contracts secured. Feed peas seem to have bids in the $11.50/bu FOB range today.
Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.