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Rayglen Market Comments – October 16, 2019

One of the crops being heavily affected by this poor harvest weather is flax. September reports suggested flax harvest was still under 10% completed and as we reach mid-October, we suspect that number is still valid.  The small amounts of flax being taken off has had reports of quality and weight issues. With this, we have seen some life in the flax bids. #1 Brown flax has been trading at $14.00/bu FOB and milling quality yellow flax traded at $15.50/bu FOB. What will contain this upside in pricing is how the Russian and Kazakh crop’s come off. As of now, they appear to be affected by drought conditions which is supportive for our market. If this is the case, we could see flax prices staying strong into the 2019/2020 crop year.

 

As of October 7th, canaryseed harvest is approximately 50% complete, which is not out of line from previous years. Canaryseed is more resilient than other crops out there and we hope it can stand up to some of this poor weather. Estimated yield is around 23 bu/acre according to Sask Ag, up from 19 bu/acre from the previous month. The canaryseed price has been sitting around 30 c/lb for a while now. The reason the canaryseed price hasn’t risen above that 30-cent mark is because buyers are able to secure product at these levels. Canaryseed bids could firm up as producers raise their targets.

 

Local growers in the Moose Jaw area reported chickpea harvest 80% complete and 50% near Estevan. These tend to be the areas that are adversely affected by the weather conditions and notable. Sprouting is a part of the daily conversation at this point with values hovering around $0.10/lb for feed and/or pet food markets. #2 chickpea bid and ask has come together as we see $0.26-$0.27/lb FOB farm trades trigger. This is location and quality dependant of course, but worth setting a target if it is near your trigger price. Desi markets steadfast in the $0.20-0.21/lb FOB farm range, but we feel there is traction there with an offer. General feel is neither buy nor sell, parties don’t want to stick their neck out for fear of being “wrong”, so the trades are very cautious with slow moves.  

 

This week, feed barley prices remain stable. Harvest continues to be delayed as mother nature does her thing and buyers want to see how much is actually going to come off this year. The long-term forecast looks promising (for now) and lots of guys are back in the field. Some areas are quite advanced compared to others and with a stretch of good weather, we remain optimistic that this year’s harvest will be completed. Movement on feed grains is being pushed back as feedlots are bought up for October, so we are now looking into Nov-Dec, or further out, movement. This isn’t all bad news though, as bids seem to have some carry for deferred delivery. Prices right now are anywhere between $3.25-$3.65/bu FOB farm Nov-Dec, depending on freight. We also have buyers looking for malt quality barley, so send us your samples.

 

Pea harvest is still slowly progressing; however, most peas are already in the bin. Quality will most likely be deteriorated for anything left in the field and estimates based on previous years with similar harvest conditions/time line suggest quality will be as such: 19% #1 Canada, 59% #2 Canada and 22% #3 or lower. Looking at yields, Alberta reports lower values than StatsCan’s estimates, which has the 2019 crop coming in slightly below 4.5 million tonnes. Export has been strong for peas lately, but bids haven’t seen much change over the past week. Yellow peas are trading at $5.75 – $6.00/bu FOB, green peas are $8.00 – $8.25/bu FOB and maple peas are $7.00/bu FOB.

 

Oats continue to trade sideways this week. Latest reports show that oat harvest is sitting around 35% completed in Alberta, 50% completed in Saskatchewan and well, unfortunately, we’re waiting for Manitoba to dig themselves out of this latest bit of crazy weather to see where things sit for them. On the pricing side, everything seems to be holding steady with milling oats, trading between $3.40 – $3.75/bu delivered to plant. On the feed side, look for that $2.50 – $2.75/bu FOB farm. If you’re looking to lock in some new crop give your Rayglen agent a call as we have options available.

 

Large green lentils remain unchanged from last week. Product continues to trade at 24 cents FOB farm with a lack of 25 cent offers on our website triggering. The market seems to be comfortable at the 24-cent mark for now and sales are being made. Small green lentils hit 20 cents FOB farm if you’re willing to wait for Jan/Feb movement. Red lentils are also seeing bids at 18 cents FOB farm for that Jan/Feb movement. Large green lentils may be stalling out a little as the trade is telling us that Russia is selling greens for 18 cents CAD. This may hold lentils in check until the world uses up the Russian supply. Feed lentils range between 8 – 10 cents, and buyers don’t see much upside to this market as there seems to be a lot of supply. If you are unsure about marketing your lentils make sure to at least get your samples graded so you have the upper hand when marketing your grain.

 

The feed wheat market has shown some strength this week as harvest continues to be a very slow process. With the weather supposedly smartening up and allowing guys to get back in the fields, we should see some significant progress, finally. With that, we expect a glut of feed wheat becoming available to the market and that should knock values back down to lower numbers. This week’s feed wheat bids range from $4.30-$4.75/bu FOB farm. Milling quality spring wheat has slowly been rising price wise due to the large amount of feed wheat coming off. Today’s prices come in between $6.40-$6.90/bu delivered to plants all around the province. On the milling durum side of things, #1 CWAD has traded as high as $9/bu FOB farm in south east Saskatchewan, while the rest of the province hovers between $8-$8.50/bu FOB farm. This market has potential to climb up so be sure to call your merchant and put in your firm target.

 

It looks like the weather might finally improve for a week, and maybe give that mustard that is left in the field a chance to be harvested. We are waiting to see samples on the quality of mustard that is pulled off and if some still gets left behind. We are seeing a slight bump in spot yellow mustard. Yellow mustard is currently trading at 36 cents for quicker movement and higher for movement into the new year. Brown is still at 30 cents and oriental at 23.5 cents on Cutlass variety. All pricing is based on #1 grades and subject to sample acceptance. It may be time to talk to us about new crop contracting. Let us know what you are thinking for prices with an Act of God. We have also begun sales on all types of certified mustard seed delivered to your yard, both treated an un-treated. Call your merchant for more details.

 

Canola prices are still in the mostly sideways trend that they have been for quite a while. The November futures (which we will soon move off of into January) are remaining at about $460/MT in recent trade and have not wavered much in recent weeks. It sounds like harvest did perk back up in most areas late last week before snow and rain delayed things again, but canola is going to be one of the last crops off from most reports, due to lingering green. If the weather holds out for a few weeks of drier, as it is supposed to, we should be able to get a lot more of this crop actually in the bin and get a grasp on what our quality looks like. If the soybean markets continue to show some strength from progression in the China/US trade talks then we would hope that canola can ride the coat tails of soybeans a little.

Soybean futures are down a bit due to recent U.S. crop ratings not indicating big losses from last week’s U.S. cold snap. Furthermore, trade talks between China and the U.S. continue to tread water thus no one is feeding the bull market. Local soybean bids are trading in the range of $10.25-$10.50/bu picked up on farm. Dry bean bids have held reasonably firm with harvest delays being reported in Western Canada and North Dakota. We are hearing faba quality variability from this year’s crop. Some of which has been harvested whereas other geographies have yet to harvest. Exports are expected to wane a little this year as the rest of the globe resumes normal production levels. #2 faba bean bids continue to hover near $8.00/bu picked up.

 

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.


Rayglen Market Comments – October 9, 2019

The pea market has seen little to no change from last week and although harvest is progressing slowly, most of the peas are already in the bin. Chinese pricing for Canadian peas isn’t showing any strength right now, according to recent reports, and this is a good indication that we likely won’t see a large uptick in bids for the short term. We are also still competing with the Black Sea region and their shipment of peas into the European market, which poses a significant freight advantage when compared to Canada. Current trades are being done at $5.75-6.00/bu FOB on yellows, $8.00-8.25/bu FOB on greens and $7.00/bu FOB on maple peas. If you have dun peas in the bin $7.00/bu FOB is an indication worth targeting.

 

The constant start, stop, start and stop due to the weather has prolonged harvest and the quality that was maybe once there, is no more by this point. As a result, feed buyers continue to see an onslaught of product being shown to them. Feed wheat/durum is fetching anywhere in that $4.00 – $4.40/bu range depending on location. Now, on the opposite side of the spectrum, is the good quality product. CWRS with a 13.5% protein is pulling in $6.40 – $6.90/bu with the later for pushed out movement, delivered to plant. The topic everyone is talking about… #1 CWAD. These past couple of days pricing has been on the rise, but where it lands is anyone’s guess. We haven’t seen a lot of commitment on either the buyer or the seller side for pricing and selling. We have seen some $9.00/bu FOB farm trade in select locations though the market is fluctuating in that $8.00-$8.50/bu FOB farm for the most part. A strong play for this market is to call your merchant and put out a target to try and jump start buyers with quantity, quality and a firm price in mind. One thing to be aware of when you are looking for prices is to make sure you have had testing done on your product. Buyers are looking to know what they’re bidding on and variables such as falling number and sprouting are going to be vital.

 

There is no big news out of the canaryseed market this past week. Bids are still flat in the 30c/lb range with some opportunity for prompt delivery available. Trading has slowed in the canary market and we suspect this can be attributed to harvest delays and continued producer bullishness. Buyers have pulled quite a bit out of the bins already at 30 cents, now we wait to see how the rest of the crop year shakes out and if this market has more legs. Producers have been waiting for a surge in price like this one and should hedge some product at current values. There is no saying this market pushes higher, especially when current levels are still being rewarded with sales. There is still lots of canaryseed in the field and producers are waiting patiently to take in this year’s crop. We hope mother nature will cooperate in the upcoming weeks.

Flax prices are holding sideways this week and 2019 harvested acreage has been minimal so far, with the focus being on more vulnerable crops. As another snow fall makes its way through the prairies, delayed harvest reflects on the near-term price, with values of $13.50/bu picked up in the yard being bid for product that is in the bin. Yellow flax prices are near $14.00/bu picked up. Flax harvest in the US has been reported favorable and prices have dropped off in recent weeks. Flax movement has been fairly quiet, but the supply squeeze and delayed harvest is enough to boost prices. The latest snowfall will create some more challenges, so it’s hard to say where these flax prices will go. However, the biggest factor still remains the Black Sea region. If the Black Sea region has modest inventories of flax, we could see export competition decline.  

Unharvested chickpea quality is starting to crumble, and we may be seeing a slight bump in recent #2 bids because of it. For those who have product off, we have seen trades hitting the books at upwards of 26 cents/lb delivered for large kabuli varieties. Desi chickpeas are in the 20-cent range, with little grower interest. Yield estimates seem to vary due to some disease issues this year, but there is carry-over, which is what is keeping prices from rallying too strongly. The Indian market for kabuli and desi chickpeas is also showing very few signs of life. India has stockpiles of desi chickpeas so; those supplies will be moved first. The impact of the harvest delay will play a factor in pricing out any lower grade chickpeas and finding homes for lower grades could be a struggle. We do have some pricing opportunities now, but these values depend on specs, so please call your merchant or send in your samples.

 

Feed barley markets haven’t seen much change from last week. Continued poor harvest conditions are holding prices steady as we wait to see if the weather will cooperate. A lot of tough and sprouted grain has been seen in the Rayglen office, and we have buyers for both! Just make sure you know the percentages of each, so your merchant can find the best home for it. October movement is tough to find, but there is a slight chance if you lock something in near-term. For the most part bids are quoted as Nov-Dec now for $3.10-3.40/bu FOB farm. Holding until Jan-Mar 2020 captures $3.20-3.50/bu or April-June 2020 at $3.30-3.60/bu FOB farm depending on freight. If you have malt quality barley, make sure you are sending us samples, as we have malt buyers looking for product.

 

The canola futures are down a touch today, with November sitting at $465/MT. Rain/snow has once again delayed our canola harvest and the general comment we’ve been hearing is that very little has been harvested thus far. Some is swathed or standing (now lodged), which makes it a lot harder to get. Canola can take the weather better than a lot of other crops and we hope there aren’t too many quality issues but won’t know until the crop hits the bin. For the few that have been able to harvest, yield reports are good. On a pricing note if you are taking canola off and there is some green count in it, get a percentage and talk with your merchant as we have homes.

 

The mustard market as expected remains flat. As this harvest slowly continues along, it will be interesting to see what quality of mustard is pulled off and if some gets left behind. Will this start to impact prices? It will be interesting to see what happens. Yellow mustard is currently trading at 36c/lb FOB farm, brown at 30c/lb and oriental at 23.5c/lb on Cutlass variety. All pricing is based on #1 grades and subject to sample acceptance. It may be time to talk to us about new crop contracting. Let us know what you are thinking for prices with an Act of God. We have also begun sales on all types of certified mustard seed delivered to your yard, both treated an un-treated.

 

Little change has taken place in the oats market this week. There are expectations of significant amounts of snow falling in south central Manitoba, which will have an impact on the oats harvest moving forward. In Saskatchewan, we are roughly just over 50% done the oats harvest and the cold, wet weather will likely affect the quality of what’s left in the field. Milling quality oats are trading between $3.40-$3.75/bu delivered to plant depending on what area you’re in and what delivery timeframe you choose. Feed oats are trading between $2.50-$2.75/bu picked up in the yard.

 

As the US soybean crop rating continues to slide, the market is expecting the USDA to lower its production estimate on Thursday. Couple that with the lower stocks report from the beginning of the month and you have a slightly nervous market that continues to feed the bull. Planting pace in Brazil continues to lag which also adds optimism to the market. Local soybean bids are trading in the range of $10.25-$10.50/bu picked up on farm. We have had reports of new crop faba harvest in southern regions with very few of the northern acres in the bin. #2 faba bean bids continue to hover near $7.50/bu picked up. Dry bean bids have held reasonably firm with selling opportunities across a few local buyers.

 

Lentil markets are holding onto last week’s pricing for the most part. A few buyers have pulled back their small green bids, but 20 cent FOB farm is still available in certain locations. Large green lentils seem to be holding at 24 cents for #2 or better and reds remain quiet with no movement in value this week. Any lentils remaining in the field will most likely be feed quality and this is reflected in recent bids. Feed market values are all over the place depending on colour and location. Feed greens have seen bids as high as 11 cents on farm and reds as low as 8 cents with on farm pick-up.  Low grade lentils will see the most downward pressure as the industry feels there will be ample supply to meet demand.

 

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.


Rayglen Market Comments – October 2, 2019

Trades on canaryseed have slowed down over the past week or two as harvest across the province has ground to a halt due to weather issues. Prices remain at recent highs of 30 cents/lb FOB farm for those looking to cook while the pan is hot. We obviously have yet to see if increased harvesting will diminish the proverbial wind in the sails on this market or if it will keep floating along. The initial jump to 30 cents definitely cleaned out a decent amount of the canary that has been held onto for quite some time, so it might be a bit before sellers are ready to jump back into sales. If you have not moved anything at these values, there is no guarantee that we will be priced this high forever so moving at least some product now is likely the best play.

 

Flax harvest for 2019 has been minimal so far, with the focus being on more vulnerable crops. The delayed harvest has reflected on the near-term price, with values of $13.50/bu picked up in the yard being bid for product that is in the bin. Flax harvest in the US is also lagging, but not nearly as behind as western Canada with 60% harvested in North Dakota compared to 4% in Saskatchewan as of September 23rd reports. The US yields have been reported favorable and prices have dropped off in recent weeks. If the Black Sea region has modest inventories of flax, we could see export competition decline. While exports of flax have been quiet, the delayed harvest and lack of supply is enough to boost prices. How long these prices hold will depend on many factors in the upcoming months.

 

Well, this past weekend is one to forget as the weather continues to put a damper on this year’s harvest. The continued onslaught of rain and now add in the snow, has made what was out there for wheat, less than desirable. Meaning, more and more is moving into the feed market and the feed prices are starting to reflect that. The price range is varied, depending on your location, look to see pricing anywhere in that $4.00 – $4.35/bu FOB farm. Still better than the 2016 harvest that was moving in that $2.50/bu range. Good quality wheat and durum has been a little harder to come by. A CWRS with a 13.5 protein is fetching anywhere from $6.15 – $6.65 delivered into plant with the later for pushed out movement. As well, top tier durum may be quite the commodity to have right now as we aren’t seeing a slew of it moving in the market. Reports of top end durum are $8.25/bu FOB farm in SE Sask, but putting out an offer is never a bad idea to target the price you’re looking for.

 

Due to less than ideal weather, the oat harvest remains delayed and many producers are well behind their average pace at this point. This is reflected in the number of samples showing up in our office and a few buyers pushing to buy (unavailable) product. Thus far, 50% of the oat crop has been graded in the top two grades, which is lower than the 5-year average. We expect that number to dwindle even more as harvest commences, simply due to weathering in the field.  As of last week, about 25% of the oat crop was reported off and in the bin. The price on oats, maybe somewhat surprisingly, remains stable week to week, trading around $3.40 to $3.75/bu delivered to plant, based on milling spec. Feed oats are trading between $2.50 to $2.80/bu range FOB farm. When you are looking for the most current and up to date prices in your area, please call your Rayglen merchant.

Canola futures have edged up slightly, just over $3.50/MT. November futures sit at $454.1/mt this morning. The harvest delays and quality concerns from recent moisture and colder temperatures across the province remain supportive to the market. The prices have not jumped significantly due to forecasts calling for warmer and drier weather later in the week. Carry-over on old crop supplies and firmness on the Canadian dollar have also been weighing on values. What changes the market price? Supply talks only have a limited shelf life, while demand is mediocre, analysts write that the government dictates majority of purchasing behaviour. When trying to understand price behaviour, there is a difference between market ready supply and potential supply.

Bean futures have pulled back a bit after Mondays big jump based on the reported lower stocks. Traders remain nervous as they await more info on the 2019 US production level. Lack of fresh buying from China, where markets are closed through Oct. 7, continues to limit enthusiasm ahead of trade talks set to start up again next week. Brazil planting pace continues to run behind schedule. Local soybean bids are trading in the range of $10/bu picked up on farm. New crop faba harvest progress is spotty given current Canadian Prairies weather. #2 faba bean bids continue to hover near $7.25-$7.50/bu delivered. Dry bean harvest samples are rolling in and quality appears to be good. Dry bean bids have held reasonably firm with selling opportunities across a few local buyers.

 

The large green lentil markets continue to strengthen for #2 or better product, with bids at 24c/lb picked up at the farm. Small greens are trading at 18c/lb on farm, with some potential for better bids based on high quality #1’s. Green lentils should have the most upside out of all the lentils as we assume quality will be the major talk this year. The question now is if green lentils carry their cousins, red lentils, along for the ride? So far, we have not seen this take place. That being said, red and greens are different markets and we don’t expect the reds to take off as quickly. The reds are still being hampered by tariffs and smaller demand.  Until India becomes a major player in reds again, don’t expect big improvements in the market, but rather, watch for the small blips when buyers may be covering shorts.

 

Feed barley markets are stable this week. As snow and rain continue to hit the prairie provinces over the weekend, harvest gets pushed back once again. The long-term forecast seems to look good so far with no rain in sight, so maybe October will be the lucky month. Buyers have filled up October movement as of right now, so we are looking into Nov/Dec for movement, or into the winter months where you will see a slight premium if you can hold onto it that long. Prices this week on Nov/Dec movement are around $3-3.40/bu FOB farm, while Jan-Mar movement is between $3.25-3.60/bu FOB farm, both depending on location. The malt market has made a bit of a come back, so if you have malt quality talk to your merchant or call into the office for more information.

 

The pea market has not seen much of a change since last week. The Black Sea region is still supplying a good amount of peas into the European market and with Canadian peas being a higher value, we won’t see a lot hit the European feed market until later in the marketing year, as per reports. Current pricing on peas are at $5.75-6.00/bu FOB, green peas at $8.00/bu FOB and maples peas at $7.00/bu FOB. Depending on location, we may be able to push a little higher on green peas if the quality is good. There have been some reports of earth tag in all varieties, which is downgrading product, however, as samples are rolling in, we see the majority of peas harvested before the late rains being decent quality.

 

We’ve noticed a blip in the market when it comes to chickpeas but have not been able to decipher if it is market move or a short cover. #2 or better Chickpeas are rumored to trigger at $0.25/lb FOB for a longer shipping period and limited tonnage. Despite this information, and clear jump from last weeks $0.22/lb, it is like a ghost town when trying to find sellers or even resellers. Something is going on that we cannot put our finger on, but some thoughts are, posturing for the ANUGA conference in Germany coming up, a play at seed sales for the coming crop year or covering of a short. This could also be a long shot market speculation. Either way, its feels unstable. Desi chickpeas finally have a $0.20/lb FOB farm value behind it, but these levels do not translate to a sell yet. It is good news that they are back on the radar though and we will continue to poke for further bids and information. Feed chickpeas remain steady at $0.10/lb.

 

The mustard market remains flat this week. The next area to possibly concern buyers could be the weather. As we all know, the serious snow storm last week may have impacted remaining mustard left in the field. How many acres were caught out prior to the storm system?  As this harvest slowly continues along, it will be interesting to see what quality of mustard is pulled off and if some gets left behind possibly. Yellow mustard is currently trading at 36c/lb FOB farm, brown at 30c/lb and oriental at 23.5c/lb on Cutlass variety. All pricing is based on #1 grades and subject to sample acceptance. Call the office for seed needs as pricing should be set shortly and as we move into October harvest hopefully wraps up for many more growers.

 

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.


Rayglen Market Comments – September 25, 2019

As of Sept 9th, chickpea harvest was only 9% complete vs 63% last year and 30% on a 10-year average. It is no surprise that the slower pace of harvest equates the unavailability of good quality chickpeas and a more available supply of pet food and feed market product. Canadian exports numbers showed a 26% increase of export compared to 116,000MTS in 2017/18 but we still are met with a lack luster response when predicting chickpea values for the current production. Australian production is almost identical to last year and while the USDA reported smaller crop, there is still a great deal of carry to eat through before anyone gets excited. Current #2 Kabuli bids sit around $0.22/lb FOB farm and $0.19/lb FOB for smaller varieties. Feed values are sitting @ 0.10/lb FOB farm. Desi chickpeas remain a mystery for yet another week as we continue to push for clarity in that market.

 

Dry bean yields were estimated at 38.5bu/acre for the 2019 production, but since have been revised to 37 bu/acre, which is still a record yield according to StatsCan. This is inclusive of pinto, black and navy. Larger exports are expected for the coming year, which could expand even further as heavy rainfalls continue in North Dakota, Southern Manitoba and Northwest Minnesota. North Dakota is 28% complete harvest vs. the 5-year average of 59%; Minnesota at 20% complete vs. the 5-year average of 64% and lastly, Manitoba being 6% vs 62% on a 3-year average. Seeded area in Mexico is reportedly down 21%, which would mean they should produce the smallest crop since 2011 with a production of 663,000 MTS. Local soybean bids are still trading in the range of $9.25-$9.50/bu FOB farm. New crop #2 faba bean bids continue to hover near $7.00-$7.50/bu FOB farm.

 

There is some interest being shown in the flax market this week for product that is in the bin. $14.00/bu delivered on brown flax is available but must be harvested as movement is prompt. With the delays in harvest, buyers are behind on filling some orders. We most likely will see prices fall back once the majority of flax is harvested. The other factor that will affect prices is the crop outcome in the Black Sea region. We will either see a flat market if their crop is sizeable, or if yields are reduced, we could see some spikes in prices, but it will take awhile for that to filter into the Canadian market. Yellow flax prices have been holding steady in the $13.00-$13.25/bu range picked up. To keep up to date on price alerts, make sure you are getting our text or emails.

 

Feed barley continues a downward trend once again this week. Buyers are being shown a tremendous amount of feed barley after wide spread rain. We are starting to see sprouted product as well, which you have to be careful with, as some buyers will start discounting after 25% sprouted. Rejected malt is also making its way into the market, plugging it up even more. Immediate movement is getting harder to find, so make sure if you need bin space, you get some on the books. Prices this week are anywhere between $3-3.40/bu FOB farm depending on freight and product must be heavy and dry for movement by end of December. There are discounts for lighter or tougher grain, just talk with your merchant on what you have. If you can hold the product into the new year, AKA Jan-Mar, you will see a bit of a premium.

 

There have been constant delays this harvest, as rain, rain and more rain continues to be a thorn in the backside of producers. These delays are costly and frustrating for farmers, not to mention downgrading on all crops. There is a lot of feed wheat and durum that is currently hitting the market and we suspect more to come. Large lots of product continue to be booked at $4.40 to $4.50/bu FOB farm range with buyers starting to get skittish and bids tougher to find day by day. Movement windows get pushed further out each day as well and for the most part, buyers want to see J/F/M 2020 product now. It would not be a bad idea to pre-sell some bushels before this feed wheat market drops even more.  For good quality durum, there have been some bids around $8.00/bu delivered in the south-central part of the province, while milling wheat continues to hover in the $6/bu range.

The canola market continues a fairly sideways week with values working back to anywhere from $9.35/bu to $10/bu delivered to plant in most areas. There is not much for new crop off at this point as lots of canola is still standing (or in the swath) around the country waiting for the weather to smarten up to allow harvest to resume (or begin in some extreme cases).  Obviously, the trade situation between Canada and China remains strained due to the ongoing trade spat between the US and China so we sit and wait for better days. Near term frost warnings raise concern for some of the green canola, but time will tell as to what damage, if any, that causes.

 

Harvest is slowly progressing as our current weather conditions continue to delay combining. In Saskatchewan, as per Stat reports, the pea crop is 80%, behind our ten-year average of 94%. We are still determining how these late rains and cold weather are going to affect the quality of the peas in the field. However, we can expect more peas moving into the feed market, especially any green peas that have yet to be harvested. Bids are sitting at harvest lows and may take a while to see any upside, as the Black sea region is moving their product into Europe at a discount to Canadian values. Currently, yellow peas are at $5.75/bu FOB, green peas are $7.50-8.00/bu FOB and maples peas are at $7.00/bu FOB.

 

Lentil harvest is progressing at about 70% complete in Saskatchewan. Any samples received here at Rayglen before the rain, quality was good; however, any lentils coming off now are starting to have issues with colour, wrinkle and sprouting. As more off grade product comes to the table, especially green lentils, we see upside potential in good quality #1 & #2 large greens and #1 small greens. Current pricing is at 22-22.5 cents FOB on #2 large greens and 18 cents FOB on #1 small greens. Red lentils have yet to see much upside, with pricing ranging from 16-17 cents FOB. Red lentil markets still have the threat of rising tariffs into India lingering overhead, which is going to hold pricing at bay for the meantime.

 

This poor harvest weather is not making it pretty for the oat crop right now as we are hearing reports of roughly 25% in the bin. We have seen a slight increase in prices from last week, as milling oats are trading in that $3.40 – $3.75/bu delivered to plant with the better price for pushed out movement and near the Saskatchewan/Manitoba boarder. As well, you can lock in some 2020 new crop oats at $3.45 delivered to plant for Oct-Nov movement. On the feed side oats are trading in that $2.50 – $2.80/bu range FOB farm, depending on location. Call your Rayglen agent for area specific bids.

The canaryseed market has maintained its strength, but due to lots of booking, delivery timeframes have been getting stretched out into Jan-Feb 2020. Despite some minor adjustments on expected production and continued delay in the 2019 harvest, trading is still taking place at 30 cents/lb FOB farm for those later movement periods. Some options do exist for a quicker movement at a slightly lower price. While there is lots of speculation this market could potentially move a bit higher, it’s not a bad idea to get some of your production locked in as a starting point at today’s values.

 

The mustard market remains flat this week with no price change. As of September 16th, Saskatchewan’s mustard harvest is 24% complete, well behind our 10-year average and the slowest pace since we started keeping such statistics. As this harvest slowly continues along, it’ll be interesting to see what quality of mustard is pulled off. For right now, yellow mustard is trading at 36 cents/lb FOB farm, brown at 30 cents/lb FOB farm, and oriental at 23 cent/lb FOB Farm. All pricing is based on #1 grades and subject to sample acceptance.

 

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.


Rayglen Market Comments – September 19, 2019

As harvest slowly progresses, feed wheat/durum volumes keep rising. Feed pricing is being affected every day as more tonnage keeps getting moved into the market. Today, prices are trading at $4.25-4.80/bu FOB with the stronger pricing in the South West of Saskatchewan. If you are harvesting wheat and durum right now, marketing a few bushels/acres as a hedge seems to be a good a strategy. Locking in some product will secure a movement window and we may see prices that start with a three near term. We suspect some upside in the good quality milling durum markets and producers that were able to harvest #1 grade before the rain, or have some in the bin, may consider holding. Currently, we are seeing product trade in South Central Saskatchewan trading at $8.00/bu delivered.

 

Flax markets have been stagnant for a while now, which can be attributed to very little export demand. Thin carry in supply and slow harvest progress, preventing new crop product from hitting the market, seems to be holing bids steady. China has recently approved imports of flax by rail from Kazakhstan, adding more competition in the Chinese market. Subsequently, this will provide less flax to the European market, potentially opening up new opportunities for high quality milling flax. Flax bids have been quoted in the range of $12.25 to $12.75/bu FOB farm this week, based on milling quality. Yellow flax bids remain unchanged, and trades continue to hit the books around $13.00/bu picked up.

 

As of September 9th, Sask Ag showed 63% of Canadian lentils harvested. With rains occurring around most of the province last week, we could be seeing some quality issues on what is left in the field. The latest estimate form the Australian lentil crop came in 20,000 tonnes more from last year, but is not seen as burdensome, as Australian exports have been strong to move out old-crop supplies as per analysts. The Indian market could have some serious trade issues as the Indian ministry is recommending import tariffs raise to 70% from 30% on all lentil imports. This is in response from Canada and Australia “dumping” lentils. If this action follows through, there will be further disruptions in the trade. As far as pricing goes, we have bids for all lentils of all grades. There have been some rising bids on large green lentils, but not so much for other lentils even with some harvest challenges.

 

News of sprouting chickpeas over the last few days has perked up the conversation when it comes to market value. General thoughts are that this will largely affect the pet food and feed side of the market but how it impacts commercial quality remains to be seen. It Is hard to believe that it won’t have some effect on the value, but it is doubtful that we will see values of the last 2 years come back to the table. Recommend the best approach is to understand the quality of chickpea you have. Get the size breakdown, know your moisture levels and understand the downgrading factors if any and market it with all information in hand. There will be a mishmash of quality out there this year with what was in the bins and what is still in the field so look for opportunity knowing what you are selling.

 

Harvest proceeds slowly across the province this week and the mustard market brings us little change or news. The last progress report stated 20% of Saskatchewan’s mustard had been harvested. At the same time in 2018, we were sitting at 70% harvested across the province. As more yield numbers and samples roll in over the next few weeks, buyers should get a better understanding of what’s out there and the market will react accordingly. Spot mustard prices today are 36 cents/lb FOB farm for yellow, 30 cents/lb FOB farm for brown, and 23 cents/lb FOB farm for oriental. As always, we will have a good supply of certified seed this year so be sure to check in with your merchant on a price delivered to your yard.

 

Poor weather conditions continue to delay pea harvest province wide. Concern over quality is the main topic of conversation and as the days tick past one would expect that this should help put legs on a stale market. From the buyers interest we have seen continued support on green peas at $7.75-$8/bu FOB farm range with relatively quick shipment. Yellow peas are steady in the mid to high $5/bu FOB value and maples peas steady in the $7.50-$8/bu range. On an international level it is not going unnoticed that the value of a Canadian Yellow pea is down, and it is suspected that India has been importing through Bangladesh to capture these values. General feel is that China will again be a buyer but not from a “need” standpoint, rather, the price is right. Without India being back at the table it is expected that yellow pea prices will continue to be a long game.

 

The feed barley market has faltered a little on price this week as the supply demand scale took a dramatic shift with the poor weather we have received. Feed bids on barley are down into the low to mid $3’s range now depending on location of farm. West is still best on pricing at this time, but feedlot alley is filling up fast so price parity from east to west may be on the horizon. If you’re a feed seller, then time is of the essence as more and more downgraded product hits this market and hurts our values. We have maltsters looking for samples to be submitted on values in the mid- $4’s to $5/bu mark delivered to facility, which is a solid premium to the feed values on today’s snapshot.

 

The Saskatchewan Crop Report from last week stated that 11% of the oat harvest is complete. This is well behind last year’s progress when we were 43% done at the same time. Statistics Canada released their model-based yield projection, which is predicting this year’s yield to be 4.016 MMT, 800K MT more than the five-year average. At this point the market seems to unsure whether the increased tonnage is enough to offset any possible quality issues. With little oat harvest completed the quality of this year’s crop is still very uncertain. Until we see more samples or field more calls on oats, don’t except much in the markets to change. Markets for milling quality oats are trading in the 3.30-$3.45/bus range delivered plant for a milling quality and feed oats this week have been trading at $2.50/bus.

 

The canola market again remains quiet. On the trade front, there has been rumors out there about an imminent deal between China and the US, but nothing firm as of yet. Rains again have delayed the canola harvest and potential for frost becomes more likely every day. So, we will be dealing with quality issues perhaps as time moves on and mid-September has already passed us. Local bids continue to range between $9.75-$10/bu delivered in for movement this year with deferred options available above $10/bu delivered in.

 

Strong trading continues from last week to this in the canary market. 30c/lb FOB farm seems to be the magic number to pulling some of that underreported farm stock into the market with prices maintaining a steady hold. This is only the 4th time in the last 25 years that canary has made it to that 30c/lb level. How long does this last? Do we see a price drop/maintain or increase once the canary harvest starts? If you’re in limbo, it’s a safe bet to move some into the market to hedge your bets at this historically high price. All in all, canary, the cream of this year’s crop, maintains its place on top.

 

Soybeans searching for market support amidst the “kick the can down the road” trade deal news and debates over yield prospects. USDA continues to announce soybean sales to China, which at this point amount to token purchases relative to what was once sought by China. Soybean production will be sharply lower for 2019 but even the bullish report Sept. 12 may have limited impact until demand improves or yields fall in South America. Local soybean bids are trading in the range of $10/bu picked up on farm. New crop faba harvest is yet to get rolling. #2 faba bean bids continue to hover near $7.25-$7.50/bu delivered. Dry bean harvest is underway in Alberta and dry bean bids have held reasonably firm with selling opportunities across a few local buyers.

 

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.

 


Rayglen Market Comments – September 12, 2019

Late rains and frost have been delaying harvest and boosting the amount of wheat and durum we are now expecting to move into the feed market. Feed prices may not be as strong as they were a month ago, but prices are still attractive. Depending on location, feed wheat and durum have been trading at $4.50-5.00/bu FOB, with the odd bid coming in north of $5 for prompt movement. Compared to the #1 wheat market that is closer to $5.50-5.75/bu delivered, feed is looking like a viable option. Durum, on the other side, is seeing some upside. If you’re in Southeast Saskatchewan $7.00/bu FOB is achievable on a milling quality. If $7 is your mark, but you’re not in the Southeast, try out a target with your merchant.

Flax development is delayed as per the latest Sask Ag report, but analysts are still predicting above average yields. Ending stocks for 2019/20 are forecasted to be slightly below last year due to tight carry-over form 2018/19. Chinese inventories are built up, so we can expect prices to remain sideways for the interim. Milling flax prices are sitting around $12.25-$12.50/bu. Yellow flax prices remain around $13.00/bu picked up. The Black Sea region is still a mystery with the 2019 flax potential confirmations still under wrap. If the Black Sea region yields poor, then we may see some upside in prices, for now the market will remain flat.

Lentil harvest is underway with some areas making good progress, while others struggle to make any headway at all. The Saskatchewan Crop report has 25% of lentils harvested, that is 50% behind from this time last year. With harvest progress being delayed we are seeing large green lentil and small green lentil prices stabilize, this is mostly due to buyers becoming concerned that later combined crops may have quality issues. Red lentils are still facing major market and harvest pressure. Samples that have been submitted to office to date seem to be of #2 or better quality; most of these were harvested before last week.  We have not seen many red samples yet. Large green lentils are trading at 20 cents picked up in the yard, small greens at 16 cents picked up and red lentil pricing has been very quiet and hard to nail down. Estimated value is around 16 cents picked up. Finding prices on US origin lentils is also getting tough. If you’re looking to trade red lentils and US origin grain, target pricing is likely the best option.

Chickpea markets are seeing some action but not when it comes to #2 or even #3 quality. Feed and sample grade have been trading in the $0.11-$0.13/lb range and there is appetite for more at these levels.  Commercial trade for #2 or better is still very quiet. Typically, there will be some business done during or after the Canadian Specialty Crop Association conference every year, but with the delays in harvest, quality concerns and supply and demand figures being what they are, everything remains flatlined. Desi chickpeas are unchanged as well. If chickpeas are a commodity you want to get off the farm first this year, offers are going to be your best bet.

The market hasn’t reacted to strongly to last week’s StatsCan report on mustard. The modest 10% reduction in total supply compared to last year has not disrupted the market either way. There could be a slight tightening of stocks as time goes on, but nothing to move the market yet. We will see how this plays out regarding price as we get into fall. We are getting a few yield reports on mustard now in the southwest part of the province, but still seems a little behind schedule due to drought and the very slow start. Rain showers over the past few days continue, which certainly has not helped. Brown mustard prices still might be considered at 29-30c/lb FOB range, with spot yellow mustard bids remaining at the 36c/lb range FOB. Oriental mustard again stays at the 23c/lb FOB range for old crop. Already…. even though its early, please inquire about seed delivered to the yard for next season. 

The yellow pea market has seen seldom trade over the past week as harvest continues to provide pressure. However, green peas did see some movement with close to $8.00/bu FOB achievable. We have also seen some product move up from the US as bids hit $5.50/bu USD, picked up on farm. As for yellow market, $5.50/bu CAD and sub $4.00/bu USD isn’t providing a whole lot of grower interest. Finally, in the specialty pea market, bids and interest remain tapered on an expected large production year. Specifically, the maple pea market continues to slip with $7.50/bu the most common bid. To lock in movement, we highly recommend signing up a few bushels of your maple peas if you haven’t already as we suspect this market has the most potential to fall apart.  At this point, pea markets in general aren’t showing many signs of improvement.

The barley market has been slipping in value as harvest shrugs along. Current trades for feed barley have been between $3.50 – $4.00/bu range picked up with movement being pushed to winter months for the most part. That is a far cry from where it was trading earlier on in the year, but still a great value considering the large number of planted acres and current yield reports. The closer you are to the Alberta border, the more likely you are to get into that $4/bu range. Recent widespread rains have stalled harvest and are likely to push malt destined barely into the feed side, another bearish factor to watch out for. As producer reports flow in, we remind growers to get the test weight and moisture checked to avoid any discounts and surprises after shipping. Feed barley weight is a minimum 48 lbs, while moisture needs to be 14.8%. It is expected this year that shipments of US corn into southern Alberta will be virtually nonexistent due to the larger barley crop this year. This year’s crop is expected to be up 15% from the previous year and is the largest since 2013.

Well it looks like we survived early frost warnings with little to no harm across the prairies. The next challenge we must face is this rain that seems to keep slowing us down on the daily. We have not heard much for harvest reports on oats as most remains in the field, trying to mature. Crops being quite late this year in some areas doesn’t bode well with rain/frost either. Right now, prices are holding firm and may continue too if the crop doesn’t make it in the bin.  Old crop feed oats that are good and heavy range between $2.70-2.90/bu FOB farm in value. Milling oat markets hover in the $3.75/bu delivered to plant ballpark and growers are encouraged to talk with a merchant about a picked-up price. New crop bids around are around $3.65/bu delivered on milling quality, while feed oats are being bid at $2.70/bu FOB farm in certain locations.

The story on canola continues to be the same this week with very little happening. Lower expected production this year doesn’t seem to be making much headway against trade restrictions with China. Wet conditions in much of the province has delayed the canola harvest and potential for frost becomes more likely every day. This leaves big question marks on what the quality of this year’s canola will look like moving forward. Local bids continue to range between $9.50-$9.75/bu delivered in for a quicker movement with deferred options available at and above $10/bu delivered in.

Canary continues to be one of the shining stars this harvest season. The 70,000mt production report from StatsCan helps bolster this number as this small crop is comparative in size to that of the prairie drought year of ‘88. Now that’s putting things into perspective. With tight production numbers we may see the ever elusive on farm stock, that’s been stashed away, finally come into play. No matter how you cut it, canary will continue to garner premium pricing for sound quality. Right now, you can still sign up new crop with an act of God for 26.5c/lb FOB farm with old crop pricing standing by its side. The future looks bright for this commodity!

The Canadian bean crop has had some conflicting reports. Some are favorable for Ontario, but like reports out of Manitoba, there are large differences in crop development. The recent rains in western Canada may be too late to help the dry bean crop. Analysts predict the yield could come in below the 5-year average, leaving tonnage 9% less than last year. The US bean crop has stabilized, export demand remains slow and the environment is likely to continue this way unless an agreement is reached in US – China trade. The Mexican bean crop is behind as far as seeding goes and if there is a reduction in final seeded area, this could result in more demand for Canadian and US beans, mainly pinto and black beans. Prices will vary on the type of bean, so call our office with what you have.

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.


Rayglen Market Comments – September 4, 2019

Canary continues to be one of the shining stars this harvest season. The 70,000mt production report from StatsCan helps bolster this number as this small crop is comparative in size to that of the prairie drought year of ‘88. Now that’s putting things into perspective. With tight production numbers we may see the ever elusive on farm stock, that’s been stashed away, finally come into play. No matter how you cut it, canary will continue to garner premium pricing for sound quality. Right now, you can still sign up new crop with an act of God for 26.5c/lb FOB farm with old crop pricing standing by its side. The future looks bright for this commodity!

 

The barley market has been slipping in value as harvest shrugs along. Current trades for feed barley have been between $3.50 – $4.00/bu range picked up with movement being pushed to winter months for the most part. That is a far cry from where it was trading earlier on in the year, but still a great value considering the large number of planted acres and current yield reports. The closer you are to the Alberta border, the more likely you are to get into that $4/bu range. Recent widespread rains have stalled harvest and are likely to push malt destined barely into the feed side, another bearish factor to watch out for. As producer reports flow in, we remind growers to get the test weight and moisture checked to avoid any discounts and surprises after shipping. Feed barley weight is a minimum 48 lbs, while moisture needs to be 14.8%. It is expected this year that shipments of US corn into southern Alberta will be virtually nonexistent due to the larger barley crop this year. This year’s crop is expected to be up 15% from the previous year and is the largest since 2013.

 

The yellow pea market has seen seldom trade over the past week as harvest continues to provide pressure. However, green peas did see some movement with close to $8.00/bu FOB achievable. We have also seen some product move up from the US as bids hit $5.50/bu USD, picked up on farm. As for yellow market, $5.50/bu CAD and sub $4.00/bu USD isn’t providing a whole lot of grower interest. Finally, in the specialty pea market, bids and interest remain tapered on an expected large production year. Specifically, the maple pea market continues to slip with $7.50/bu the most common bid. To lock in movement, we highly recommend signing up a few bushels of your maple peas if you haven’t already as we suspect this market has the most potential to fall apart.  At this point, pea markets in general aren’t showing many signs of improvement.

 

Late rains and frost have been delaying harvest and boosting the amount of wheat and durum we are now expecting to move into the feed market. Feed prices may not be as strong as they were a month ago, but prices are still attractive. Depending on location, feed wheat and durum have been trading at $4.50-5.00/bu FOB, with the odd bid coming in north of $5 for prompt movement. Compared to the #1 wheat market that is closer to $5.50-5.75/bu delivered, feed is looking like a viable option. Durum, on the other side, is seeing some upside. If you’re in Southeast Saskatchewan $7.00/bu FOB is achievable on a milling quality. If $7 is your mark, but you’re not in the Southeast, try out a target with your merchant.

 

The Canadian bean crop has had some conflicting reports. Some are favorable for Ontario, but like reports out of Manitoba, there are large differences in crop development. The recent rains in western Canada may be too late to help the dry bean crop. Analysts predict the yield could come in below the 5-year average, leaving tonnage 9% less than last year. The US bean crop has stabilized, export demand remains slow and the environment is likely to continue this way unless an agreement is reached in US – China trade. The Mexican bean crop is behind as far as seeding goes and if there is a reduction in final seeded area, this could result in more demand for Canadian and US beans, mainly pinto and black beans. Prices will vary on the type of bean, so call our office with what you have.

 

Flax development is delayed as per the latest Sask Ag report, but analysts are still predicting above average yields. Ending stocks for 2019/20 are forecasted to be slightly below last year due to tight carry-over form 2018/19. Chinese inventories are built up, so we can expect prices to remain sideways for the interim. Milling flax prices are sitting around $12.25-$12.50/bu. Yellow flax prices remain around $13.00/bu picked up. The Black Sea region is still a mystery with the 2019 flax potential confirmations still under wrap. If the Black Sea region yields poor, then we may see some upside in prices, for now the market will remain flat.

 

Well it looks like we survived early frost warnings with little to no harm across the prairies. The next challenge we must face is this rain that seems to keep slowing us down on the daily. We have not heard much for harvest reports on oats as most remains in the field, trying to mature. Crops being quite late this year in some areas doesn’t bode well with rain/frost either. Right now, prices are holding firm and may continue too if the crop doesn’t make it in the bin.  Old crop feed oats that are good and heavy range between $2.70-2.90/bu FOB farm in value. Milling oat markets hover in the $3.75/bu delivered to plant ballpark and growers are encouraged to talk with a merchant about a picked-up price. New crop bids around are around $3.65/bu delivered on milling quality, while feed oats are being bid at $2.70/bu FOB farm in certain locations.

 

Lentil harvest is underway with some areas making good progress, while others struggle to make any headway at all. The Saskatchewan Crop report has 25% of lentils harvested, that is 50% behind from this time last year. With harvest progress being delayed we are seeing large green lentil and small green lentil prices stabilize, this is mostly due to buyers becoming concerned that later combined crops may have quality issues. Red lentils are still facing major market and harvest pressure. Samples that have been submitted to office to date seem to be of #2 or better quality; most of these were harvested before last week.  We have not seen many red samples yet. Large green lentils are trading at 20 cents picked up in the yard, small greens at 16 cents picked up and red lentil pricing has been very quiet and hard to nail down. Estimated value is around 16 cents picked up. Finding prices on US origin lentils is also getting tough. If you’re looking to trade red lentils and US origin grain, target pricing is likely the best option.

 

The story on canola continues to be the same this week with very little happening. Lower expected production this year doesn’t seem to be making much headway against trade restrictions with China. Wet conditions in much of the province has delayed the canola harvest and potential for frost becomes more likely every day. This leaves big question marks on what the quality of this year’s canola will look like moving forward. Local bids continue to range between $9.50-$9.75/bu delivered in for a quicker movement with deferred options available at and above $10/bu delivered in.

 

The market hasn’t reacted to strongly to last week’s StatsCan report on mustard. The modest 10% reduction in total supply compared to last year has not disrupted the market either way. There could be a slight tightening of stocks as time goes on, but nothing to move the market yet. We will see how this plays out regarding price as we get into fall. We are getting a few yield reports on mustard now in the southwest part of the province, but still seems a little behind schedule due to drought and the very slow start. Rain showers over the past few days continue, which certainly has not helped. Brown mustard prices still might be considered at 29-30c/lb FOB range, with spot yellow mustard bids remaining at the 36c/lb range FOB. Oriental mustard again stays at the 23c/lb FOB range for old crop. Already…. even though its early, please inquire about seed delivered to the yard for next season. 

 

Chickpea markets are seeing some action but not when it comes to #2 or even #3 quality. Feed and sample grade have been trading in the $0.11-$0.13/lb range and there is appetite for more at these levels.  Commercial trade for #2 or better is still very quiet. Typically, there will be some business done during or after the Canadian Specialty Crop Association conference every year, but with the delays in harvest, quality concerns and supply and demand figures being what they are, everything remains flatlined. Desi chickpeas are unchanged as well. If chickpeas are a commodity you want to get off the farm first this year, offers are going to be your best bet.

 

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.

 

 


Rayglen Market Comments – August 28, 2019

Old crop flax bids have merged with new crop values at $12.50/bu picked up in most areas. The StatsCan yield report could be a bit of a stretch, but they have pegged the average yield to be around 24bu/acre. Exports are likely to be limited and we can expect a lull in Chinese buying over the next several months until new crop comes off. Lower US prices and an ample supply in China means that flax bids will remain sideways for the most part. The Black Sea flax crop will also be hitting the market soon. If Russian or Kazakh flax crops are reduced, Canadian supplies will be an important factor. However, the size of the Black Sea crop is still a wild card. For those with yellow flax in the bins, we have had some interest at $13.00/bu FOB.

 

StatsCan yield estimates came out with a 18.2% increase on peas, which was very close to previous expectations. Prices have softened as harvest progresses, which is putting pressure on the market and keeping export demand quiet. We have not seen any new light on China or India coming back to the market, so we are aren’t anticipating any near-term rallies. Currently, yellow peas are trading at $5.50/bu, greens at $7.50-8.00/bu, and maple peas are at $7.50/bu, all FOB farm. As per reports, green peas have the better chance of recovery when compared to yellows and maples. Looking to the future, finding a home for maple peas may become difficult, locking in delivery on a few bushels is a good play to ensure movement and price security.

 

Rain, rain go away seems to be the sentiment this time of year. The cool, moist weather that’s hovering and rotating around Sask is stalling harvest production. With the snail’s pace getting back into the fields, look to see a little pop reflective in old crop oat prices. Somewhere around that $3.75/bu delivered to plant for milling oats seems to be the going rate. Call your merchant for location specifics. Heavy old crop feed oats prices are fluttering around $2.80/bu. New crop prices seem to be holding steady with feed hovering around $2.25 – $2.50/bu FOB farm and milling trading around $3.15 – $3.60 with the latter for pushed out movement. Prices may become interesting once we get into harvesting the oat crop as, according to StatsCan reports, there will be roughly 500,000MT more oats out in the field compared to last year. So, when production starts… well, open the gates. What remains to be seen though, is weather, late timing and overnight frosts could push more than anticipated into the feed market instead of milling markets.

 

According to Statistics Canada, chickpea production for 2019/20 should come in around 250k MTS, which would be a 19% reduction from 2018. This is based on an estimated average yield of 24bu/acre, which is felt to be overstated. These numbers can read as a bull in the market, but keep in mind the year after year exceptional carry to chew through. General sentiment remains dull with potential pops in demand as we learn about quality and quantity that remains to be harvested. Old and New crop values hover in the $0.22-$0.24/lb FOB farm for large sizes and a steep drop to
mid-teens for small. Feed values hover around $0.11-0.13/lb and desi chickpeas continue to remain under the radar. Buyers are sitting on desi supply bought from last year’s production and the overseas markets have no interest in putting on new business. Anticipate little change as we progress through harvest.

 

Lentils are still under pressure this week as harvest continues to move forward. The 2019 yield and production estimates from StatsCan were released this morning and lentil production is pegged to be 10-15% higher than 2018. Adding this information to the other problems such as India’s minimal trade and supply outweighing demand, we expect prices will continue to fight an uphill battle. The news out of Montreal last week was that traders were quiet as most of them feared their own shadows and no one wants to get caught with high price contracts in a falling market. Marketing lentils this year is going to take lots of patience. Keep an eye out for small rallies and don’t pass up these opportunities when presented to you.

 

Barley markets seem to be sliding as harvest progresses and decent yields being reported. StatsCan is stating 9.645MMT of barley will be produced. Early reports are that some of the barley is coming off with low test weights, the minimum test weight for feed barley is 48lbs/bu. If you’re concerned with weight get it checked before marketing to avoid surprise discounts after it has been sold and delivered. West side Saskatchewan barley is trading anywhere from $3.75-$3.90 depending on location and movement. With the projected increase in barley, taking a part of your production off the table is likely one of the better hedges for the year. Keep in mind the last time we saw production numbers in this range, barley traded around $2.50/bu. Here is a comparison of gross return per acre numbers based on average yields and today’s prices. Barley would be $253/acre, Red lentils $240/Acre, Yellow peas $210/acre, and canary seed $250/acre. Last year saw some record high numbers in the barley market, don’t be surprised to see values fall back to “normal” levels or below on a very large crop.

 

The StatsCan report was released this morning on mustard. Nothing to shake the market in the report, but it is showing a modest 10% reduction in total supply compared to last year. So, even with an average export season, we could see these stocks tighten a bit further. We will see how this plays out regarding price as time goes on. Again, in talking with mustard growers, this year’s harvest of mustard does look a little behind schedule due to drought and the very slow start. Rain showers over the past few days, certainly don’t help and are slowing harvest. Brown mustard prices still might be considered at 29-30c/lb FOB range, with spot yellow mustard bids remaining at the 36c/lb range FOB. Oriental mustard again stays at the 23c/lb FOB range for old crop. Already…. even though its early, please inquire about seed delivered to the yard for next season.  

 

This year’s canola crop is being pegged at 18.45MMT by StatsCan. This is a 2MMT decrease when compared to last years canola crop and on the lower end of what most in the market were expecting. While this news is positive for canola prices in the long term, our dispute with China on top of a large carry over supply is holding gains on the futures board today to a minimal $1.50 through March 2020. This year’s crop is far from the bin though, with some time needed yet before the first frost of the year in most areas to ensure #1 product is harvested. Most local bids are between $9.50-$9.75 delivered for September, with possibilities of reaching $10 if selling deferred into the new year.

 

Soybean prices continue to battle improving US crop conditions and uncertainty over U.S.-China trade relations. Soybeans got friendly news from USDA on acreage, but not enough to change the landscape unless yields suffer too. The Canadian soybean crop is forecasted to be smaller in both yield and harvested acres, resulting in a year over year decline of 14.6% to 6.2 million tonnes. Local old crop bids are in the range of $9.50/bu picked up. We are hearing early reports of varied faba bean crop conditions across the Prairies. Anecdotal reports conveyed the somewhat common downgrading issues of chocolate spot and perforated damage within some geographies. New crop export faba bids are in the range of $7.00-$7.50/bu picked up on farm. Pedestrian dry bean trade continues throughout the globe. Bullish issues to pay attention to are prospects of underperformance in the Mexican crop and increased Canadian exports to Europe if US/EU trade disputes continue.

 

Feed wheat continues its downward spiral this week. Big yield numbers projected/being reported around the province show ample supply to “feed” the market. There is also worry of an early frost this year, which will damage a lot of wheat, that would have most likely been destined for the milling market. We have our fingers crossed that the cold weather stays away long enough to get this crop off. General reports out of Alberta indicate crops are wet, late and have a lot of staging issues, so whatever comes off in those areas is likely to be feed. Prices this week are between $4.70-5.00/bu FOB farm for a Sept- Dec delivery. September movement is getting pretty booked up, so make sure you get some on the books if you need to clear out the bins.

 

Bullish news for canaryseed this week as the StatCan production estimate numbers are very low at only 70,000mt for 2019. The carryout numbers on canary remain exactly what they have been for years, a mystery, as many farms seem to still have a bin or two that has been around since the iron age. This old product may start to come out of the woodworks if we do see this market get a bit of a stir. We still await to see how this crop comes in as the canary harvest has not really got off the ground as of yet. Prices are a little uptick this week with bids back up to 25 cents picked up in the yard for prompt movement timeline for those looking to clear some bin space in the nearby.

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.


Rayglen Market Comments – August 21, 2019

The pea market remains soft as harvest is underway in a few areas. Most of our yield reports have peas coming off average. There are still some concerns of bleaching due to the late rains. However, pricing will continue to grind along as harvest progresses. As per reports, India isn’t in any rush to come back to the market and remove any tariffs as their production forecasts are adequate. Today’s prices are at $5.50/bu FOB for yellow peas and $7.25/bu FOB for green peas. Maple peas are trading at $8.00/bu FOB and if you haven’t locked in any bushels yet on this crop, we highly recommend signing some up for movement purposes.

 

Barley production was already likely to be high but with reports of frost in northern areas we can expect more barley to be coming off as feed. Prices have pulled back again this week as yield reports/expectations are average to above average. We could end up seeing production close to 10MMT this year, which will weigh on prices. Currently, feed barley is priced from $3.60-4.00/bu FOB for an August-September movement; prices are stronger as you head south west. As barley keeps coming off, we aren’t expecting prices to pull up. Due to this, we recommend contracting some tonnage to lock in the movement period you need for cash flow.

 

Flax exports in June were the highest of the year and inventories in western Canada are running low.  With harvest underway, prices on both old and new crop have been around the $12.50/bu FOB range. Until the new crop comes off, we can expect a lull in Chinese buying. With a build up of Chinese inventory and lower prices in the US, export business will be quiet over the next couple of months. Values in the European market are weakening as the Black Sea flax crop will be hitting the market soon. If Russian or Kazakh flax crops are reduced, the Canadian supplies will be an important factor.  However, the size of the Black Sea crop is still a wild card. For those with yellow flax in the bins, we have had some interest at $13.00/bu FOB.

 

Chickpea supplies are comfortable going into the 2019/20 crop year and prices are reflecting that.  Prices do seem to vary, so it’s best to call with what you have for variety, and sizes to get pricing options. With that being said, prices range from 21-24 cents/lb delivered. The reduced US acres may shed some light for support to buy some Canadian supplies, but prices are not likely to rally anytime soon. India’s supplies of Kabuli chickpeas are comfortable as prices remain steady overseas. Turkey has had a high export rate and for the 2019 crop, their government has estimated an even larger crop than 2018.

 

It’s the beginning of the harvest season as we are starting to see a spattering of combines and swathers here and there. One field we haven’t quite spotted them in yet, is the oats. For the most part, that will be a couple of weeks yet. With the close proximity of harvesting upon the oat crop, new and old crop pricing is converging. Depending on location, feed oats are garnering around that $2.25 – $2.50/bu FOB farm with some premium options down in south east Saskatchewan. Milling oats are currently trading around that $3.15 – $3.50/bu delivered. If you are near the Manitoba border, look to see pricing perk up.

 

Same old, same old on the canaryseed market side of things. Prices have not really done anything in the last week. With that being said, it is one of the few bright spots in commodity markets at the moment and prices are hanging in there. Bids still range from 24-25 cents/lb FOB for sound quality canaryseed. According to Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada, production is expected to be down 11% from the previous year, totaling around 105,000 MT. Most of this production loss is due to a decrease in seeded acres. With this lowered supply, exports are expected to be down slightly, keeping prices stable for the near future. 

 

As we inch closer to September and the wheat harvest, we have seen old crop values almost disappear and new crop values come into play. There is very little space left for old crop, so make sure if you have bins to clean out for new crop you get it booked before space is gone. Buyers are predicting a large wheat crop this year, and with many crops running behind, we could see quite a bit of this product going into the feed market. There have been some rumours of fusarium issues in select areas, but for the most part it is not a widespread issue as of right now. Old crop values for August movement are between $5-5.35/bu, but as stated earlier space is filling up. New crop values are around $4.60-5.10/bu FOB farm depending on freight.

 

Lentil markets remain quiet as harvest gets under way. Most of the trade has members in Montreal this week for the CSCA’s (Canadian Special Crops Association) Pulse and Special Crops Convention and so far, there has been no major news or highlights released yet. Highlights will likely be forthcoming towards the end of the week. Markets remain oversupplied with product therefore holding prices down. India released a report last week saying that they have a buffer of 1.4 MMT of pulses. They also stated in the report that the Indian trade needs incentives to be competitive in the international market.  With India struggling to export pulses we may see their buffer continue to grow. India is having a tough time competing against other countries including Canada. This news suggests that the pulse markets will remain sluggish until India becomes an importer again and not an exporter. Prices this week see red lentils at 17 cents/lb delivered for a #2, large green lentils at 21 cents/lb for a #1 delivered, 20 cents/lb for a #2 delivered and, small green lentils at 17 cents/lb for a #1 delivered.

 

Soybean futures are finding some support as of late due to maturity uncertainty across the US Midwest. Production levels will be unknown for soybeans until August weather plays out and late planting should extend the uncertainty well into fall this year. Soybeans also got friendly news from USDA on acreage but not enough to change the landscape unless yields suffer too. Local old crop bids are in the range of $9.50/bu FOB. Prairie faba acres are concentrated back into traditional growing areas of NE Sask and Northern Alberta. That said, there are few pockets of minor planted acres scattered throughout the West. New crop export faba bids are in the range of $7.50-$8.00/bu FOB. The average Canadian dry bean price is forecast to be unchanged for the season due to similar expected year over year supply in North America.

 

Canola continues to plod along as the gravity of the Chinese dispute drifts into new crop markets. Acres are down from last year and thus production will also be down. However, the historically large old crop carryout is forecast to carry forward into new crop with little improvement on the visible horizon. The Western Canadian canola crop is still a few weeks away from any harvest activity. Many reports of canola crops with full pod fill but no seed color change yet. Whereas there is also the odd report of late canola that is just on the backside of flowering. Local canola bids for September delivery have settled in the range of $9.50-$9.70/bu delivered based on a -$35 to -$25/MT local basis. Selling deferred delivery positions into the calendar New Year is a solid strategy to get sales around that seemingly elusive $10/bu delivered.

 

As expected, when talking with buyers, things seem very flat in the mustard market right now. We are starting to hear a couple of yield reports trickle in, but still early for mustard in general to get an overall picture of yields. This year’s harvest of mustard does look a little behind schedule due to drought and the very slow start, so we are expecting a couple week delay on results this year in general. Brown mustard prices still might be considered at 30 cents/lb FOB, but 29 cents/lb seems to be the new normal. Spot yellow mustard bids remain at the 35-36 c/lb range FOB. Oriental mustard stays at the 22-23 c/lb FOB range for old crop. It appears Act of God contracts have ended for the season as buyers look to mustard already in the bin.

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.


Rayglen Market Comments – August 14, 2019

Harvest is ongoing in Southern areas and with reports of barley crops yielding well overall, bids have pulled back on new crop. For those with product off or still in the bin and ready to ship, we do have a few options for August – September movement at the $4 value on the west side of Saskatchewan. Otherwise, $4/bu FOB is workable for central/eastern areas, but movement is pushed out until January or later.  Producers had increased their barley production this year because of last year’s high values, so we were already predicting a large production with ample supply. Late rains across the prairies pose the risk of presumed malt barley now getting pushed into the feed market as well, increasing supply further. Therefore, we suggest hedging your bets by locking in these $4 values where available.

 

Chickpeas are holding steady in the low $0.20/lb range for both old and new crop as we continue through the harvest weeks. Rain has been preventing growers from steadily getting into the field and it is any wonder what it is doing to quality. Despite those facts there has been no reaction from the trade. Mexico, which typically is a year-round buyer of our production, has turned off the tap and are in a holding pattern to see where the floor is on the market. With higher than expected acres in Canada and the US, uncertainty of quality and rumored supply still in the bin, the market maintains a flat line.

 

The canola market continues with its small movements over the past few weeks, a little up, a little down. Today is one of the biggest pushes up we have seen in a while with a $3.5/mt increase in the Nov futures at time of writing, moving the futures up to $452.50/mt. This seems to be supported mostly, as of late, by the lower loonie and some strength in other oil (veg) markets. As you have heard a hundred times, the situation with that country in Asia remains a shadow on the market and keeps a cap on things. At this point there have been next to no reports on canola harvest yields and we wait patiently to see how this crop comes in. Harvest of some crops has started in the south part of Sask and Alberta, but we have still a few weeks to go in many other areas.

 

The canaryseed market remains firm as we inch closer to new crop coming off. Prices still range between 24-25c/lb FOB the farm on both old and new crop, with the latter seen in specific areas where freight makes sense. Firm offers have been a great way to capture these types of value and we will preach once again the effectiveness of a target.  Last year’s final good to excellent crop rating was 69% vs the ten-year average of 65%. At the beginning of the month reports suggested a rating of 54% in this category, but recent rumors from growers would suggest this number has improved slightly. Analysts expect yields to be down 5% of the 5-year average at 1,128 lb/acre, penciling produced tonnage around 90,000 to 95,000.

 

Feed wheat continues to trend downward this week as a result of a large increase in all feed grain acres this year. It is no surprise the high $4, low $5/bu FOB bids are slowly disappearing. If the rains would have stayed away, this would be a different story, but feed grain crops look nice throughout the prairies, according to most reports. Poor milling markets don’t help the price of feed either. We are starting to hear a few comments of disease in durum and if that’s true, we will see the feed market become even more flooded than it already, presumably, will be. Bids are still good compared to most years, a few buyers left at $4.80-5.10/bu FOB farm to finish off commitments. Offers are a great way to catch a high in the market so don’t forget to talk to your merchant if you have a number in mind.

 

It’s that time of year where we start to see old crop and new crop prices merging together. This seems to be the case with the oat market. Since last week, we have seen the old crop milling oats falter to the new crop milling price. The amalgamation of the new and old pricing sits around $3.15 – $3.50/bu delivered, with the latter price for pushed out movement. On the feed side, look for that $2.50/bu range for heavy, dry product. With a good-looking new crop on the horizon, it may make sense to lock in some bushels.

 

Whipsaw soybean market movement has been the outcome of Mondays USDA report. 20 cent swings both up and down have been the norm since Monday. The report was mildly bullish for soybeans, but the big bearish forecast for corn has pushed the market around. Trump has delayed additional Chinese tariffs, claiming that the China intends “to buy a lot of farm product” after what he describes as “a very, very productive call”. Both local old crop supplies and bids are thin but appear to be in the range of $9.75/bu picked up. Aussie faba acres are up 28% over last year and they are poised to resume their preferential exporting relationship with Egypt. The average faba on-farm bid for the upcoming season is forecasted to be right around $7/bu at the farm gate. Local new crop bids are aligned with typical historical bids hovering near $8.00/bu picked up on farm. Global dry bean markets continue to report stable and production. Thus, old crop dry bean bids have also held stable with selling opportunities across a few local buyers.

 

The field pea market continues to be soft this week with multiple reports of pea harvest well underway in southern Alberta and southern Saskatchewan. Overall, early reports show an average yield across all types of peas. For pricing, yellow pea bids are around $5.50-$5.75/bu FOB farm, green peas are at $7.25/bu FOB farm and maple peas are trade-able at $8/bu FOB farm. These prices are all freight dependent and as always, if you have a target price in mind be sure to let your merchant know or check out our website to post a firm offer.

 

Early yield reports coming in from the southern parts of the province are telling us that yields are ranging from 20-35 bushels per acre. First product off, we are being told, looks good and should make a #1 quality. With rain over the weekend in some areas it may have an effect on grade, but we will have to wait and see when combines get back into the field. The early yield numbers reiterate that the Saskatchewan lentil crop is in decent shape.  Markets remain quiet as buyers just don’t seem to be interested in purchasing a large amount of tonnage at this time, they seem to be happy to work hand to mouth to fill their needs. These markets will likely stay sluggish for the short term as harvest pressure will hold prices down. Best prices we are seeing today are $0.21/lb delivered on large green lentils for a #2, $0.17/lb delivered on reds for a #2, $0.18/lb delivered on small greens for a #1.

 

Mustard bids remain stalled, as expected, for now. This is no surprise as buyer and grower selling remain in a steady state. One thing remains this week, this year’s harvest of mustard does look a little behind schedule due to drought and the very slow start, but both sides of the trade don’t appear too concerned. Brown mustard prices still might be looked at 30 cents, but 29 cents seems to be the new normal. Spot yellow mustard bids remain at the 35-36 c/lb range picked up on the farm. Oriental mustard stays at the 22-23 c/lb range for old crop. It appears Act of God contracts have ended for the season as buyers look to mustard already in the bin.

 

The latest flax report as of July 29 showed an increase of 49% good to excellent flax conditions in the province. Inventories in western Canada are running low after heavy exports in May/June.  Because of this, analysts expect a lull in Chinese buying while new crop becomes harvested. The market will be watching to see if Russian exports ramp up in August/September and whether or not the Russian crop suffered from hot and dry conditions and more recently, heavy rains during harvest. If that is the case, then it would limit some competition into the EU and Chinese markets. Values in the European market are weakening as the Black Sea flax crop will be hitting the market soon. Export business is expected to be quieter over the next couple of months, but the wild card is still the size of the Kazakh crop.

 

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.


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