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Rayglen Market Comments – May 12, 2021

Lentil markets remain virtually on par this week, with values tending to creep up a little until demand is filled, then dropping back down. For now, the swing on all varieties does not seem to be more than a cent/lb up or down either way. Spot large green lentils have been trading around that $0.40/lb FOB farm mark for June/July movement, while new crop is being bid at $0.37/lb with a full act of God. Old crop reds continue to trade at $0.35/lb FOB farm, with new crop trading at $0.32/lb FOB farm with a full act Of God. After many areas finally getting some much-needed rain, we suspect that new crop bookings will start to pile up at these strong values. Take advantage of some new crop pricing and earlier movement to get some cash flow back into the farm. Old crop selling seems to be halted which can be attributed to one of two things: producers just wanting to get seed in the ground before making final decisions or growers are sitting on the last few bushels and waiting it out for a higher price. There is nothing written in stone out there that you need to sell everything, but with these values it’s hard to not to make incremental sales. Yes, the price may go higher and there doesn’t seem to be much downside, but as we have seen time and time again, values could drop off overnight. Trying to catch the market on the way down is tricky as it usually doesn’t drop slowly, but rather plummets.

Trying to put a number on canola these days is rather tricky and let’s be honest everyone and their dog knows what the canola market is doing. We are seeing all-time highs in canola right now, but the question remains whether the market continues the course or eventually finds a place and levels off or possibly drops. To put a firm number on canola is tough as values seem to change daily and/or hourly. It has backed off a little bit this week, but prices are still attractive. With rain received over the weekend and the general outlook of more to come, we suspect this has taken a little bit of heat off the buying side. The real question right now is: if you are sitting with canola in the bins what are you waiting for? Don’t be the guy saying you could have had a record price but waited too long! You don’t necessarily need to sell it all in one shot, but with the availability of $20.00/bu or better (yes you read that right $20.00/bu or more) the comment has to be made!

Seeding is progressing well, with reports stating that 23% of the pea acres have been planted as of early May. Lack of moisture has farmers staying in the fields; however, we are going to need some timely rains this year as to not adversely affect yield. Pricing has not changed much over the past weeks as China’s buying interest seems to be fading for the time being. Yellow peas have seen a couple $10.00/bu FOB trades (location specific) with $9.50/bu FOB available in more areas. New crop yellows remain at $8.50 – 9.00/bu FOB with an act of God. Green peas had a couple more trades over the week with $9.50/bu FOB hitting on firm target. New crop remains quiet at $9.00/bu FOB with an act of God. Maple peas have seen no change or action, with old crop at $9.75 – $10.00/bu FOB and new crop at $9.50/bu FOB.

Canaryseed markets remains strong this week and although some areas of the province were lucky enough to receive rain over the weekend, other parts weren’t as lucky. That said, it’s still early and tough to write a crop off mid May as things have more than enough time to turn around. Old crop has slowed down a bit, as buyers aren’t as aggressively buying, but are still looking for product around $0.35c/lb FOB farm for May- June movement. You can always post an offer for further out Summertime movement and see if that gets picked up. New crop is still very attractive at $0.33c/lb FOB farm with act of God. New crop contracts are on the first 10bu/acre, so you are taking some risk of the table but not booking your whole crop.

Chickpea markets maintain trading tone as we move through seeding season. Values have stayed the same from last week at $0.33/lb on old crop and $0.31/lb Sept.-Dec. with an AOG on new crop. Pakistan is still the main buyer of Canadian supply, but we have seen Italy pop up as an importer as well. As we slowly start to eat though stocks and assuming acres remain monotone, the expectation is for an upward shift in the coming months. Mexico’ values have been creeping up which could indicate reports of lower yields are factual for their production.  If rumored lower production in competing countries is true, it will support higher values for Canadian stock despite the large carry. General tone is bullish, but the buying side has not yet decided it is time to get aggressive. Consider targets when marketing as a lot of value can be left on the table in a bull market.

Not a lot of change in the wheat market from week to week. Prices remain attractive with 13.5% protein #1 Milling wheat still bid over $9.00/bu delivered to plant for May/June movement this week. Milling wheat that meets the same #1 spec but is only 12.5% protein carries a minimal discount with the same movement. The durum market is very strong as well and has been trading between $9.00 to $9.50/bu FOB over the past week or so for Summer movement in Southeast SK. Feed wheat continues to be a bull this week and has been trading around $8.00 to $8.50/bu FOB depending on location. The closer you get to the Southwest part of Sask, the better the price usually is. Wheat prices in general continue to be profitable and should continue to be for the foreseeable future.

Oats continue to trade sideways again this week as milling prices hold steady around that $3.70/bu range picked up on the farm. Bids are still a bit spotty to come by as most buyers are covered through Fall on old crop. New crop milling prices are also much of the same with mid $3’s for Fall movement and high $3’s -$4 plus for 2022 onwards. Active feed bids have been fairly quiet, but if you have something firm let us know as the odd trade has triggered around that $3.40/bu picked up on the farm. Overall, oat stock reports are down from last year according to StatsCan, as it’s been a strong marketing year with domestic use increasing over 5%, while exports shot up to just over 18%, sitting at 2.1 MMT. Let’s hope for another strong marketing year for oats as planting has started in almost all regions.

Bean exports are running ahead of average so far for the year although analysts are expecting carryover into the 2021/22 crop year. That said, some demand is still expected to come from Mexico which may chew through some of the supply. China increased their exports to 11,500 tonnes so far this year compared to 3,000 tonnes a year ago, which is also something to note. Seeded acreage in key growing areas across Canada and the US are expected to be down for this growing season and we suspect strong markets across most commodities is playing a roll. Black beans have seen the strongest gains as far as prices go, but pinto and black bean values have seen some strength in the last couple of weeks, mostly due to the stronger demand from Mexico. Faba bean prices remain fairly strong driven by moisture concerns in Western Canada and the US.

Flax prices remain linear for another week with a small pool of buyers still looking to buy at the highs of $23.00/bu picked up.  New crop pricing also remains strong with prices hovering around $17.00/bu delivered with an act of God. Flax prices in Europe have come down, likely due to decent growing conditions in the Black Sea region. The new crop prices are expected to remain sideways as the carryover on old crop flax will be minimal. As seeding is underway, weather will play a factor on expected yields, which may not build up that cushion of flax inventory going into the 2021/22 crop year.  The big factor will be if the Black Sea production will have enough supply to fill the gaps.

Sitting with some barley? You may want to double check those bins as feed continues to trade strong with pricing around $6.40 – $6.75/bu picked up on the farm for June/July movement. With historically high pricing and tight stocks we’re in for a bit of a wild ride. New crop values are sitting at $5.00 – $5.50/bu picked up on the farm in Sask. Like always, farm location plays a factor. So, look for stronger bids on both old and new crop in Alberta as you get closer to feedlot ally. Curious about malt prices? Well, maltsters seem content to lurk along the sidelines and play by themselves as they don’t want any part of these prices.

Mustard has traded sideways all week with bids virtually unchanged. A lot of talk about dryness in mustard growing areas continues, but we did see a half to one inch of moisture on the weekend in the extreme Southwest corner of Sask. and Southeast Alberta. This should alleviate short term concerns in those areas and offer a decent start now. The old argument remains on how many acres were planted this year and that picture will become clearer very soon. Mustard bids are seeing yellow at $0.45/lb for new crop with a new bid appearing on spot product at $0.46/lb for July to August pickup. Oriental old crop sits at $0.35/lb for Forge and Vulcan and $0.32 for Cutlass, while new crop Forge sits at $0.35 and Cutlass at $0.33/lb for Sept to July movement. We haven’t seen Oriental bids at these levels in a long time, so it may be a good idea to get some product locked up. Brown is bid at $0.40-$0.41/lb on both old and new crop. Shorter pickup times are available with discounts for December and March time windows.

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.


Rayglen Market Comments – May 5, 2021

Once again pea markets go another week without much change or excitement. Yellow pea prices are posted at $10.00/bu delivered, but supplies are getting hard to come by. Green peas have seen a couple of firm targets hit at $9.50/bu FOB, but trades have been limited with buyer and farmer price expectations not quite matching up. New crop values remain at $8.50 – $9.00/bu FOB on yellows and $9.00/bu FOB for green peas. As seeding gets underway, pea acres are forecasted to be down from last year, with most of the decline coming from green peas. Moisture conditions also remain a factor as almost every area would welcome some rain, so we will have to see what the next few weeks will bring. For maple peas, pricing also remains the same as last week, $10.00/bu FOB on both old and new crop (in a few areas) has traded.

Barley exports continue to rise and outpace previous years as pricing remains extremely aggressive. Feed barley has been trading at $6.30 – $6.60/bu FOB for June – July movement. If you still have some feed left in the bin, now might be a good time to get your barley priced out at these all-time highs. New crop feed barley is also posted at $5.00 – $5.50/bu FOB (deferred delivery contract) with the latter being seen in Southwest Sask. As you head into Alberta, prices on both old and new crop will get stronger. Malt barley remains quiet on both old and new, with almost all barley trades being priced into the feed market.

Chickpea markets are much the same this week, with old and new crop values unchanged around $0.33/lb FOB farm. Old crop delivery windows are posted as June-July movement, while new crop is quoted as September-December with a full AOG. Rumblings of seeded acres increasing since the last estimate seems to have no effect on value so far, but whether those reports ring true is yet to be seen. We must factor in the carry-over from years past, which is sure to play a role in values. That said, a generally firmer tone is felt and if you do not like the current price and are holding out for $0.35/lb or higher, don’t be scared to throw out a target. Throughout the past couple of days, the Prairies have seen some scattered showers and reports are showing that we might be in for some more precipitation over the next couple of days. Cross your fingers and toes, that we receive this much-needed moisture and start 2021 crops off the right direction.

Canaryseed is steady for another week as buyers look for both old and new crop with aggressive bids. This week, old crop canary is trading at 35 cents/lb FOB farm for May-June movement, while new crop bids are posted at 33.5 cents /lb delivered into plant. Pending freight costs, most FOB farm bids on new crop are penciling out between 32.5-33 cents/lb. New crop contracts still have an act of God, but as seed hits the ground and we get closer to product in the bins, expect to see the act of God clause taken out. If you are thinking about locking some production up, sooner than later might be the best option.

For 13.5% protein #1 Milling wheat, bids are coming in over $9.00/bu delivered to plant for May movement this week. For product that meets that spec but is only 12.5% protein, growers can expect to see a slight discount at around $8.90/bu with the same movement. There is still time to lock in new crop milling wheat around $8.50/bu delivered on 13.5% protein product for Nov./Dec. shipping. Durum bids are very strong as well and are trading between $8.50 to $9.00/bu FOB for Summer movement down in the Southeast part of Sask. Bids fluctuate from those values the further North and West you move. Feed wheat remains strongly priced as well and has been trading between $7.50 to $8.50/bu FOB farm depending on location. Prices in the wheat market continue to be very attractive this week.

Lentils remain stable this week with not much change in pricing at the farmgate, despite values having dropped in India. The recent drop in India can be attributed to the recent spike in Covid cases.  India is still tight with lentil stocks but as cases rise, fears of a major lock down support the thought that the country will be using less food in the short term. Long term speculation is that they we will have to come back to table and buy lentils. Back here in Canada, seeding is underway and as farmers hit the field we expect selling to slow as focus shifts to getting the crop into the ground. Market analysists are suggesting that the Fall supply could be tight, based on acres and an average yield. The big question mark is how many more lentils will ship yet before the end of the year and what is really in the bin for stocks. Moisture concerns also seem to be in the back of everyone’s mind; if we see rain in the next couple of weeks expect farmers to take advantage of the new crop pricing, with new crop markets most likely softening as contracts start to book.

Seeded acres of flax are only pegged to increase by 6% over last year, which will make it difficult for flax supplies to increase significantly for the 2021/22 crop year. Global flax markets will depend much more on production out of the Black Sea region. Prices on flax remain strong with a small pool of buyers purchasing at $23.00/bu FOB into Summer months.  New crop also remains between $16.25-$16.75/bu FOB with an act of God depending on movement timeframe. These record prices weren’t caused by low supply but rather strong export demand. Flax prices in Europe have declined by about $75US per tonne as they get more supply coming in from the Black Sea region. StatsCan will release stock estimates later this week and analysts expect to see numbers lower than they have been in the last 20 years.

The canola market continues to reach new heights this week. At the time of writing, May canola futures are trading at $933/MT which is up from $900/MT last week.  July futures trade at $905/MT which is up significantly from last week at $834/MT. November futures have also been gaining strength this week, trading at $727/MT, which is up from last week at $689/MT. If you have not sold all or any of your canola, you’ve made the right call, but as the old saying goes, “prices take the stairs up, but the elevator down”, so now may be time to hedge what’s in the bin. It is still generally dry across the Prairies and farmers will start seeding canola very soon if they have not already started. We will need to see strong yields this year to keep up with the demand that is currently seen, but there is no saying demand will continue at the current pace.

There is not much noise in the oat market lately. Things seem to have tapered off with only the odd old crop bid popping up here and there for either milling or feed. As such an offer may be a great way to go. Expect to see milling prices in the upper $3’s with feed around the low end $3/bu picked up on the farm if you can find a firm bid. Farm location continues to play a major factor on price. On new crop milling oats, bids are more abundant, sitting around $3.50/bu for fall with delivery in new year onward ranging from $3.75 – $4.25/bu. The closer you are to Sask/Manitoba boarder the better.

Faba bean prices have not seen a whole lot of change in recent weeks as bids for #2 quality are few and far between but remain around the $9/bu on farm range. Buyer interest in feed fabas still seems to be around $8.50/bu at the yard, which is a solid price to clean out the bins. Soybean planting in the US continues at a faster than normal pace this year and a shrinking supply of old crop has been bullish news for the futures market. Higher Loonie values will keep a bit of a cap on prices as an 81c Loonie is a pretty big difference from 71c a year ago. Current bids on soybeans are still around $15/bu but tougher to track down as many buyers are fairly covered for the time being. Firm targets are encouraged as business is very hand to mouth and they don’t want to own what they can’t sell.

Prices remains strong and steady in the mustard market as talk continues to circle around the acres being planted this year. Is the StatsCan estimate a little too high? Competition for acres this year is certainly an issue with commodity prices being so strong, so we will see where we end up in short order. Looking at recent weather conditions, it seems that the mustard growing areas remain dry with everybody needing rain.  This is adding a little fuel to the fire on both old and new crop for picked up with an Act of God on 10 bushels. Today’s bids are seeing yellow at $0.45/lb for old and new crop.  Oriental old crop sits at $0.35/lb for Forge and Vulcan and $0.32 for Cutlass, while new crop Forge sits at a strong $0.35 and Cutlass at $0.33/lb for Sept. to July movement. Brown is bid at $0.40-$0.41/lb on both old and new crop. Shorter pickup times are available with slight discounts.

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.


Rayglen Market Comments – April 28, 2021

Seeded acres have been reported and StatsCan has field peas down more than originally expected, dropping to 3.8M from 4.2M. It is expected that this drop will encompass more green peas, however yellows and specialty peas will be down too. Therefore, supplies may be tight for this next marketing year, unless the weather smartens up and yields are exceptional. Having a positive price reaction looks favorable but this may not come into play until later in the year once China’s demand is known. Hopefully, we can see green peas move back into a premium, with acres being decreased. Current pricing has not seen any change from last week. Yellow peas are at $10.00/bu delivered (9.50/bu FOB), with new crop values at $8.50/bu FOB; $9.00 may be available in limited areas. Old crop green peas are priced at $9.50/bu FOB and new crop is at $9.00/bu FOB. Maple peas have yet to see much change with old crop at $9.50 – 10.00/bu and new crop at $9.50/bu FOB.

Canaryseed is starting the week off strong. We have buyers that have purchased old crop product at  $0.35/lb FOB farm  for Summertime movement on firm offer. New crop is also strong with prices moving to $0.33/lb delivered plant at the end of last week and still sticking around. Even with some areas looking for moisture at this point in time, getting 10bu/acre on the books doesn’t seem like a terrible play given the historically high value and contracts including an Act of God. We have booked quite a few acres so far so talk with your merchant if you are interested in getting some acres locked up. Seed sales are very close to coming to an end, but if you need some last-minute supply, give us a call and we can help you out.

Barley markets remain steady without much new and exciting to talk about. The price for old and new crop has come up slightly this week with spot bids reaching $6.50/bu FOB farm in Central SK and production hitting $5.75/bu in Eastern AB. The story remains the same, a “hot” feed market and a lackluster malt market. Covid has had a big impact on malt barley and with sports venues, concerts, fairs etc. being shut down, demand for malt just isn’t what we normally see. Luckily, record high feed markets are there to alleviate the lack of a malt market. As is with anything, this feed market could very well drop off overnight and with current demand driven by China, it’s highly suggested that you don’t miss the “boat” on this one. Our general suggestion: sell what’s in the bin and make room for new crop. At the end of the day, production is not too far away and at a $1/bu discount, we’d hate to see those bids converge while there’s still product in the bin. Hedging the downside on old crop is likely a good play. As for new crop, locking in 25% of your expected bushels at a higher-than-average bid is a great starting point. This puts some relief on your shoulders knowing you you’ve secured movement, bin space and cashflow, leaving you with another 75% to play the open market with when the time comes.

Flax prices remain sideways for another week on old and new crop. While there are still opportunities for old crop flax, it seems the market has topped off and the pool of buyers willing to hit the highs of the year is dwindling. New crop prices remain strong with bids ranging from $16-$16.75/bu FOB with an act of God, depending on movement timeframe. According to customs data from China, there was 34,000 tonnes of flax imported in March. Twenty thousand tonnes originated from Canada, while the remainder was split between Kazakhstan and Russia. Exports from the Black Sea region were lower in the earlier months of 2021, likely caused by some hurdles at the Chinese border. With seeding starting up in a few areas of the province, make sure you get our alerts for any changes in the market.

Despite being mostly in the red the last two days, canola futures are still advancing, reaching new highs again this week. At time of writing, May futures are sitting right on $900/MT which is up substantially from $871/MT last week. Physical buyers have not been trading off May futures for quite some time now as speculators drive the price up. July is the only old crop futures worth looking at if you are still holding some canola in the bins. Currently sitting at $834/MT, July futures have risen from $814/MT last week. November futures have also seen an increase to $689/MT from last week at $680/MT. Wild volatility this week has some people on edge, but stocks on farm are still very tight and conditions are dry across much of the Prairies as we get into seeding. If demand stays this strong into the next crop year, we will need to see some strong yields this year to keep up.

The milling wheat market has seen some strength this week in Central Saskatchewan. Bids, basis #1 quality with 13.5% protein, have been coming in around $9.00/bu delivered plant for May movement. For #1 product with 12.5 % protein a slight discount of 20 cents is seen, putting bids at $8.80/bu delivered for the same time frame. There are some opportunities to lock in new crop milling wheat around $8.50/bu delivered on 13.5% protein product for Nov./Dec. shipment. Durum bids are holding strong with $8.50 to $9.00/bu FOB trading for Summer movement down in the Southeast part of the Sask. The feed wheat market remains attractive, actively trading between $7.50 to $8.00/bu FOB farm depending on location. Growers in Alberta and Western Saskatchewan are seeing the highest values, but all areas are receiving attractive values.

Confusion is a good way to describe chickpea markets today. StatsCan is showing some very defining numbers on expected acres down 28% from last year (298k acres vs. 212k acres). The confusion comes from outlying opinions that express the opposite and go as far as predicting a slight increase in chickpea acres from last year. There is no commentary to support that opinion, but it is a bold statement worth noting. A typo perhaps? Seeding is just starting to roll and so far, the moisture reports are not all bad. Conditions may be acceptable for germination, but a spring rain will be necessary to keep progress on track. Old crop values for #2 Kabuli’s are $0.33/lb FOB farm for June/July movement and new crop bids are the same at $0.33/lb Sept.-Dec. with an AOG. Sample chickpeas valued anywhere from $0.18-0.23/lb FOB farm depending on downgrading factor. On a side note, marketing discussions often end with a chickpea value that a producer would be happy to sell at, but the intention is to wait until the market gets there. Our recommendation is to set that target. Tell the market what you want and go after it. Roughly 8/10 times we have had success in this style of transaction, and it has become common place in today’s agricultural environment.

The mustard market remains linear this week as prices remain strong.  StatsCan numbers indicate that the mustard acres will see a pretty significant increase and that tamped things down a little. StatsCan is suggesting acres will increase to 358k from 257k last year but many in the trade feel that number seems too high based on reports from growers, so there may be a revision in subsequent updates. Current bids still show $0.40/lb for old and new crop on brown mustard, $0.45/lb on yellow for old and new crop, whilst $0.35/lb is attainable on specific varieties of oriental mustard. There is still lots of talk of dry conditions which is dominating farmers plans on making too many sales on old or new crop. If a good heavy rain does come in the near future, does that open the proverbial floodgates on sales? Time will tell, but it’s a problem we would all like to see, we think.

Old crop milling oats continue to trade soft as the majority of buyers report having coverage with product on hand at this time. With bids few and far between, pricing remains elusive as well on feed, but look for around $3/bu picked up on the farm for dry, heavy product. Just the other day, the StatsCan seeded acreage report came out indicating a decrease in seeded acres which was expected. We haven’t seen any correlation with new crop pricing as it’s not expected to be a big factor. As many have said, “we haven’t lost a crop in April yet.”

Lentils continue to gain strength as we head into seeding. This uptick in the markets could be the start of another wild ride for lentils. There has been lots of talk about India reducing tariffs so they can cover a shortfall in lentil supplies, although this is yet to be seen. Moisture concerns in Canada and the US is also helping push lentil prices up. StatsCan released their latest seeded acreage report suggesting that we will see 4,218,000 this year, which is relatively similar to last year’s acreage, meaning we will likely not see an increase in ending stocks. At current price levels everything points to profitability on the farm, yet farmers are resistant to lock in new or old crop due to the fact prices keep climbing upwards. So, to recap what is driving these markets? First and foremost are moisture concerns, second is buyers trying to secure acres, and third is the effects Covid-19 is having on the world food supply.  The first two factors are having the greatest effect on pricing. If we see rain in the next couple weeks, prices will likely fall back, and we will see acres start to book and fill buyer’s needs. If this is the case, expect buyers to walk away until Fall. These markets seem very fragile right now making marketing extremely tough on everyone.  Remember high prices cure high prices.

It is expected that U.S. planting pace will increase next week. This prompted some technical selling and thus a drop in soybean futures. Old crop supplies remain snug with rumors of minor U.S. imports. Buying appetite has waned a bit based on what is perceived to be high prices. Local soybean bids are reflecting buyer coverage and have slid to now hover around $15.50/bu picked up depending on location. Buyers are encouraging any reasonable offer to be brought forward rather than posting a standing bid. Buyer’s inquiries for higher quality fabas have slowed. That said, $9.00/bu FOB farm is a reasonable target for #2 quality. Dry bean acres are forecast to decrease for 2021. This isn’t new news, but it was once again further reinforced in the recent StatsCan report. Shrinking new crop acres has prompted a bit of an uptick on old crop values with some buyers.

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.


Rayglen Market Comments – April 21, 2021

Canadian flax exports have more than doubled from last year and with an estimated increase in the StatsCan seeding intentions report next week, we hope to see that export strength continue. If you still have flax in the bins, prices vary depending on movement.  New crop is still holding strong at $16-$16.75/bu picked up with an act of God. The Kazakh market is still hard to decipher, as the National Statistics Service reports 405,000 tonnes of flax inventories as of April 1. However, flax prices also remain at record highs despite these heavy stocks which is a tad surprising. A couple things could be happening; farmers aren’t selling, keeping prices supported and/or the quality is poor. European flax prices seem to have levelled off causing crush margins to drop significantly. Analysts are pretty confident the highs have passed for old crop flax, so now it’s time to weigh in on these new crop values.

The mustard market remains very strong on both new and old crop product. Current spot bids are showing yellow up to $0.45/lb picked up on farm for #1 quality, brown mustard up to $0.40/lb and oriental up to $0.35/lb for Forge and Vulcan type. Cutlass type still carries a couple cent discount. New crop bids are similar to spot prices to encourage growers to stick with mustard. This push is needed with so many other profitable cropping options this year. The biggest hurdle for many growers to consider forward contracting still seems to be moisture concerns. Recent snow events have helped some, but not made too big of a dent in the shortfall; we still need rain. As always mustard production contracts do come with an act of God, mitigating marketing risks in the future, while keeping your farm protected in the event of a total production loss.

The milling wheat market continues to see strength this week with bids based on #1 quality with 13.5 % protein sitting around $8.70/bu delivered plant for April-May. Growers with #1 product & 12.5% protein can expect bids in the $8.50/bu delivered range for the same timeframe. Short term need seems to be in play as further out bids for June/July drop considerably. New and old crop durum bids remain unchanged with production values at $8.25 to $8.50/bu FOB farm in the Southeast part of Saskatchewan. Spot values are indicated at $8.50/bu range delivered to plant throughout most of Saskatchewan. Feed wheat markets have seen a bit of an uptick again this week, making its way back to previous highs of $7.75/bu FOB farm in many areas of Sask. and over $8.00/bu FOB farm in Alberta. It looks like now is the time to sell any milling or feed wheat left in the bins!

Barley remains unchanged from the week previous with old crop still trading in the $6.00/bu FOB farm range, depending on the area. New crop values remain the same with availability to lock in $5.00/bu FOB farm in many locations. If you are still sitting on old crop or planting new crop, we stick with our previous suggestion: it just may be time to sell! Although the market does not seem to be dropping off at all, it also isn’t going up either. As growers hit the field and therefore harvest is right around the corner, a last-minute push on old crop seems unlikely. It stands to reason that values for old crop feed barley throughout the year were more than adequate to purchase enough stock to cover needs until new crop. Buyers are still willing to purchase, however, expect bids to stay similar with delivery windows getting pushed out. Recent snowfall will help barley crops get off to a better start, so put some of your new crop barley on the books at these very attractive values and leave the rest to the open market. At this point it’s no secret that current values are being driven by Chinese demand and although this makes the numbers look great, those markets can dry up overnight. Your goal may be to capture an additional 10-25 cents, but are you prepared for the potential $1-$2 drop? It’s all a risk vs reward situation and hedging against the potential downside is likely a good option.

Oat trading has been pretty quiet as of late. Buyers seem to have an abundance of coverage on the books, thus not having to chase any old crop or even post a bid, as is the case with many of our buyers. Old crop milling prices are hovering around that $3.70/bu range picked up on the farm in the right location, granted you can find a purchaser. Feed oats have also run into a similar marketing phase as this soft trend has producers sitting on product. Buyers are looking for good heavy feed oats which would garner bids around $3/bu. If you’re looking for a better price let your merchant know as an offer may be the best way to go.

There is very little change in the pea market as prices continue to hold their values over the past couple of weeks. Yellow peas are at $10.00/bu delivered, with new crop values at $8.50 – 9.00/bu picked up depending on location and movement period. Green peas remain quiet with $9.50/bu picked up being available in few locations. New crop pricing is holding at $9.00/bu. Maple peas also remain at $9.50 – 10.00/bu picked up on old and $9.50/bu picked up on new crop. Shipments have slowed down on peas, as yellows are hard to come by and buyers have softened their bids to wait for new crop. There is also still a good chunk of green peas on farm, however, buyer and grower price expectations have yet to align. We are expecting a drop in green pea acres so that brings hope that this market could move back to its premium position for new crop.

A nice shift in chickpea markets this week as StatsCan reports an improvement in export numbers at 15k MTS which is also the highest it’s been since April 2019. The Mexican harvest has been reporting 5-year average lows on production and with the rumors of Indian tariffs being lifted and questionable supply in India and Pakistan, chickpeas could be on the rise again. On the buy side, the demand is steady and starting to show improvement on bids. Old crop #2 Large Kabuli chickpeas are being bid at$0.34-$0.35/lb FOB farm for May-June with new crop bids as high as $0.355/lb delivered to central SK. plants. There is still strong demand for low quality product, but this becomes a needle in a haystack situation on the seller side – hard to find. All eyes are on chickpeas as they start to come to life again after a very long nap.

Canola futures continue to fly high, almost hitting limit up yesterday on the nearby months and seeing solid gains into the new crop months as well. May futures are at $871/MT currently, which is up from $834/MT last week. July futures are at $814/MT, which is also up big from last week when we saw $761/MT. There are many factors out there that have led to this rally in canola. Technical signals are looking bullish which has speculators adding to their positions, meanwhile soy has given support to the canola market as well. Add extremely tight stocks on the farm, dry weather, and slightly weakening Canadian dollar and you get a perfect storm for price increases. November futures have not shied away from the higher prices either and sit at $680/MT, up from $638/MT last week. With some attractive local basis options out there, signing up some new crop is very tempting to many growers.

Lentils have stabilized this week with prices remaining relatively unchanged. We are seeing a slight variance in the abundance of new crop red traded at $0.30/lb FOB farm with an AOG, but some targets are still triggering.  This week, reports suggest the price of red lentils in India has jumped by $61 USDA/MT since the start of April, but due to import tariffs it’s still tough for companies to put a large number of sales on the book. This, along with rising COVID cases in India will influence pricing going forward. When COVID cases rose in Indian last spring, we experienced a strong response in Indian purchasing along with reduced tariffs, which may be the case again. We also patiently await the arrival of StatsCan’s projected seeded acreage report next week. The early prognosis is that lentil acres will be slightly lower than the last average, thus, making supplies for next year tight even if we produce an average crop. If acres are down more than previously thought it may cause a slight rally in new crop pricing. More on this subject next week once the report is released.

U.S. planting delays and dwindling old crop supplies continue to drive soybean prices higher and higher. China has signaled that they may be backing off the proportion of corn and soybean in livestock rations. The market seemed to breeze past that memorandum and continues to trade higher values. Local soybean bids continue to hover around $16.25 bu picked up depending on location. The faba bean market continues to have decent demand for higher quality grades. Good quality #2 Faba bids are in the range of $9.00/bu FOB farm location dependent. Dry bean market prices remain well supported coupled with healthy export numbers. New crop dry bean acres are forecast to decrease both North and South of the border.

Canaryseed has continued strong this week, and we are seeing an average spot price of about $0.33/lb FOB farm for July movement. That said, we have had a couple targets triggered for higher. New crop is sitting around the $0.30/lb mark for Sept. to December pickup with Act of God, again with a slight opportunity for stronger contracts on offer.  Getting 10bu/acre on the books to take some risk off the table may not be a bad play, especially with an act of God clause. We have booked quite a few acres recently, so be sure to talk to your merchant. For those looking to move spot canaryseed sooner than later, we may have some options available for May around $0.32/lb.  Acres are still projected to be up around 10, which doesn’t seem like a lot if that’s indeed accurate but may be enough to keep markets at bay. On the other hand, there is also some thinking that available farm stocks have and are tightening, which could perhaps cause more action in the near term. We will have to see how this plays out in the next few months prior to the new harvest. Last minute seed is still available so call your merchant if you’re in need of some.

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.


Rayglen Market Comments – April 14, 2021

Pea shipments continue to slow as export demand becomes quieter and as a result, bids have softened over the last couple weeks. The good news today is that we are still trading the same values as last week with yellow peas at $9.50/bu picked up on old crop, while new crop values are bid at $8.50 – $9.00/bu pending delivery timeline. Green peas have had targets hit at $9.50/bu picked up on old crop and new crop values are quoted at $9.00/bu picked up. Maple peas remain quietly priced at $9.50 – $10.00/bu with new crop at $9.00 – $10.00/bu picked up (variety and location dependent). Reports show that India’s pea prices continue to drop which is a signal of a larger harvest. Therefore, it seems unlikely that any import restriction will be lifted as their prices continue to fall. The Canadian pea market will again depend fully on China’s repeat demand. We also must keep an eye on China and Ukraine to see if they reach an agreement on phytosanitary issues, as this would increase our competition into China.

Canaryseed has seen a bit of life in old crop markets at the beginning the of the week, with buyers looking for product in the $0.33/lb FOB farm range for summertime movement. If you are looking for quicker delivery, you may be able to capture bids around $0.30-$0.31/lb FOB farm for April/May. Although we don’t have firm bids there, we suspect targets will get some attention. New crop still seems to be holding at $0.30/lb FOB farm in good freight locations and no more than a penny less for locations further from plant. A few southern zones received a much-needed precipitation event this week and those areas should now have at least some moisture to seed into. That said, with acres projected to increase and better moisture conditions, we may have a good size crop come off in the fall. Getting 10bu/acre on the books to take some risk off the table may not be a bad play, especially with an act of God clause. Of course, seed is still available so call your merchant if you’re interested.

Barley markets remain unchanged and there is not much to say that you haven’t heard in previous weeks. The feed market remains strong with new crop still being priced in the $5.00/bu range FOB farm, give or take, pending location. Given the recent snow fall across many areas these past couple of days we should see some better moisture conditions to get this year’s crop off to the right start. Old crop barley continues to be bid at the $6.00/bu FOB farm range, again with wiggle room on both sides of that value pending location. Suggestions are still the same today as in previous weeks; make sales on the remainder of old crop and get 10-25% of expected production on the books, while playing the open market on anything over and above. The malt side of the barley world remains quiet and tough to find a true and accurate bid. With feed values as strong as they are, this becomes a risk vs reward scenario. Whether it be the crop holding up throughout the growing season, or holding dormancy in the bin, current feed values may push growers towards the “easier” market. The recent price spread, or lack thereof, it seems like a straightforward decision on which way to go. Seeding is not far off in most areas, so we expect to see producers buckle down and making those last-minute decisions. Whether this will have an impact on current values is hard to say, but if you are stuck on which way you want to go, we would highly suggest not to think too long and take those profits where available.

The milling wheat market has really been showing life this week with prices ranging from $8.45 to $8.52/bu for April-May delivery based of a #1 quality with 13.5 % protein.  For #1 Product with 12.5% protein, bids have been ranging between $8.25 to $8.35 for April-May delivery. New crop durum has been showing some life as well and has been trading between $8.25 to $8.50/bu FOB farm in the Southeast part of Saskatchewan.  Looking at old crop durum, bids have been trading between $8.50 to $9.00/bu delivered to plant in many areas. Feed wheat has held on for another week, trading between $6.50 to $7.50/bu FOB depending on farm location. The highest bids for feed wheat have been in Western Saskatchewan and Eastern Alberta.  

No major changes on flax prices this week, despite some areas of the province lucky enough to receive moisture heading into seeding. Old crop prices vary, so call us with what you have in the bin.  New crop prices are still holding strong, ranging from $16-$16.50/bu picked up depending on movement timeline and location. Analysts are expecting smaller amounts of flax moving to the EU due to smaller supplies available, with exports from the Black Sea region into the EU also falling off. However, exports to China were up 63% from last year, suggesting that there was a shortfall in China’s own flax production and a key factor in the market shift this year. Chinese production will be a variable on global markets for this coming season. This, combined with an increase in overall flax acres increasing in key producing countries, might mean taking some risk off the table and looking at these new crop prices is a good play.

Chickpea markets maintain tone for another week. Snow over parts of the prairies is a welcome sign for most for obvious reasons and calms a bit of the concern for both buyers and sellers. No new information out of India or Mexico on production quantity or quality and values remain flat. Historically chickpea values tend to soften during seeding and through the summer months but with grower floor price expectations higher than buying capabilities, expect values to remain flat. Old Crop bids for a #2 or better kabuli are $0.32-$0.33/lb FOB farm and $0.30/lb FOB farm W/AOG for new crop. We are not seeing a lot of business done at these levels and encourage sellers to set targets for buyers to realistically work with.

Mustard values have been strong this past week and we saw a nice jump in some old and new crop bids, particularly in yellow and oriental mustard. Concern over dryness in mustard growing areas and the number of acres being planted may have crept into the equation as of late. Advertised spot pricing sits at $0.40/lb on #1 brown mustard now, while yellow is up quite a bit to $0.45/lb on #1. Oriental has seen values move to $0.35/lb on #1 depending on variety. Oriental still carries a 2-cent premium on Forge type over Cutlass which sits at $0.33/lb now. Movement can be as short as May and as long as June/July on some contracts, so talk to your merchant for options that meet your needs. Bin space and cash flow are always factors involved and we have options to satisfy both. New crop mustard values are very similar to the old crop prices. These are some very aggressive new crop prices that we have not seen in quite a while. It’s important to talk to your merchant this week about options for new crop pricing in regard to movement. If you are stuck for seed, last minute options may be available for all types of mustard and possibly still delivered to your yard if you live in Saskatchewan. Call us anytime for new crop and seed.

Oat acres for this upcoming year are expected to decrease a bit but potential supply levels can be recouped so long as yield production and quality are present. Demand is also expected to taper off as there was a marked influx this year due to inflation buying because of Covid. As well, there was also Chile’s random insurgence in the import market which was great to see but that looks to be more of a “one hit wonder.” In regard to pricing, we have seen the oat market soften a bit as buyers look to be pretty well covered. Expect bids closer to the mid to high range $3’s depending on farm location. New crop bids are a little softer as buyers have been doing what they do best, buying. So, to catch $4.00/bu look for movement from Mar./April onward of 2022. The feed side is a tad quiet with bids around that $3.00/bu picked up. If you are looking for a bit better, give your merchant a call as an offer may be the best way to go.

Even with some much-needed precipitation across most of the prairies this week, canola futures markets continue their torrid pace upwards. At time of writing, May futures are at $834/MT, up from $793/MT last week. July futures are sitting at $761/MT today which is up from $735/MT last week. Not much has changed of late to stop this momentum upwards as recent moisture hasn’t done enough to ease people’s thoughts of drought as seeding approaches. Combine that with canola stocks continuously getting tighter and support from veg. oil markets, we can see why this market doesn’t want to slow down. New crop futures are also rising as November futures are now up to $638/MT, which is $9/MT higher than last week.

Lentil pricing is seeing some support this week, especially on the new crop side of things.  Buyers are really trying to lock in new crop acres to get some coverage for Fall deliveries. On large green lentils we are seeing bids trade as high as $0.35/lb FOB farm with an act of God. This is only a cent behind old crop pricing.  Reds are following the strength trading around $0.29/lb FOB farm for new crop and between $0.30-$0.31 on old crop. There are lots of rumors that India is back in the market for lentils, but nothing has been confirmed. At this point markets are rallying due to the fact that we are mid-April and very little new crop contracts have been put on the books to cover the demand.  If buyers are just looking for some coverage for fall, expect these markets to soften if/when growers start to make heavy sales. Current best guess is that buyers are not likely looking for big tonnage at these levels this early in the game.

Soybean futures are taking their lead from corn. US planting concerns and domestic soybean crush demand underpinned support for the overnight gains. Local soybean bids continue to hover around $16.25/bu picked up depending on location. The Faba bean market continues to have decent demand for higher quality grades. #2 Faba bids are in the range of $9.00/bu FOB farm, location dependent. Dry bean market prices remain well supported coupled with healthy export numbers. New crop dry bean acres are forecast to decrease both North and South of the border.

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.


Rayglen Market Comments – April 7, 2021

Pea market values have softened across all varieties again this week. Old crop yellow peas have pulled back to $10.00/bu delivered, while $9.50/bu FOB farm green pea bids are tough to find with most buyers now quoting $9.00/bu. Maple peas still have an option or two at $10.00/bu picked up, but buyers are limited. For new crop, bids picked up on farm with an act of God are as follows: yellows are bid at $8.50 – 9.00/bu, greens at $9.00/bu and maples at $9.50 – 10.00/bu (variety dependent). If you still have some yellow peas on farm, we recommend moving them into the market as many buyers are willing to wait for cheaper new crop product in fall. At this point it’s still looking like China will come back with heavy demand for the 2021-2022 marketing year and if dryness remains a threat then we can expect prices to remain strong. It also looks hopeful that the green pea market will pick back up this coming marketing year.

The forecast for seeded flax acres in Canada project an increase of 18% according to some analysts, while the USDA report, last week, estimated a 31% increase for our neighbours to the south. There hasn’t been a lot of export activity in the past weeks, and with limited availability left in the bins, prices are starting to come off their highs. For those with any flax left, call us for pricing and movement options as we still have a few buyers willing to pay up. New crop flax is still holding onto its highs of $16-$16.50/bu picked up with an act of God this week, although the number of buyers willing to purchase is shrinking. Looking ahead, the size of the 2021/22 Chinese flax crop will be a major factor. If Chinese production increases, flax from other countries will have a harder time finding a home. If we get some favorable weather, we may see these new crop prices slip as well.

The barley market once again holds strong with little to no change this week. Feed values continue to hit highs of around $6.00/bu FOB farm for old crop and anywhere between $4.00 – $5.00/bu FOB farm for new crop. It remains tricky to find malt values, but given current feed pricing, most producers are exploring feed markets for anything sitting in the bin and/or future production. As previously mentioned, we suggest getting some of these high price feed values on the books; 10-25% of the farm is a good starting number. If there ends up being a drought, the assumption is that you should still be able to hit this target and at least you have some guaranteed cash flow in the fall. On the other side of things, if we end up with good moisture and pull off an average to above average crop, it is likely values will waiver and you’ve locked in some of the highest numbers for the year. Given the upswing in projected seeded barley acres, planning to grow and then search for a price come harvest may result in delivery periods being pushed out further than hoped and/or anticipated. Barley continues to pencil in as one of the top return-on-investment crops at current new crop values. For any further information regarding pricing on new crop, old crop or seed call a Rayglen merchant today.  

This week has seen fairly stable mustard pricing, but the offer system here at Rayglen has triggered higher values for later movement! Advertised spot pricing sits at $0.38-$0.39/lb on #1 brown mustard, $0.41-$0.42/lb on #1 yellow and $0.32-$0.34/lb on #1 oriental depending on variety. Oriental still carries the premium on Forge type over Cutlass, although the gap appears to have narrowed. Movement can be as short as April and as long as July on some contracts, so talk to your merchant for options that meet your needs. Bin space and cash flow are always factors involved and we have options to satisfy both. Strong new crop prices are currently trading for 10bu/ac with an act of God. It’s important to talk to your merchant this week about options for new crop pricing. If you are stuck for seed, last minute options may be available for all types of mustard, and possibly still delivered to your yard if you live in Saskatchewan. Call us anytime.

Milling wheat prices have slipped a little bit this week. CWRS milling bids pulled back a touch to $7.20 to $7.45/bu for April-Aug. delivery basis #1 with 12.5% protein. For #1 product with 13.5% protein, bids sit in the $7.40 to $7.65/bu range for the same time period. The new crop durum market has had some more action lately with product trading between $8.25 to $8.50/bu FOB farm in the southeast part of Saskatchewan.  Old crop durum bids sit at $8.50 to $9.00/bu delivered to plant in many areas.  The feed wheat market has seen a slight pull back over the past couple weeks but is still posting very strong values. Recent trades are taking place at $6.75 to $7.70/bu FOB farm pending location. Highest bids are seen in Western SK and Eastern AB. We still see some producers selling decent quality wheat with low protein (or other discounting specs) into feed markets and penciling out better than elevator bids after discounts. Consider these factors before shipping your product!

Soybean futures have returned to last week’s pre-report levels. Market drivers are comprised of a basket of global events all contributing to sensitive global supplies. Brazil’s soybean harvest is approaching 80% complete. Brazilian production estimates exceed last year despite weather issues. US planting delays are expected with heavy rains being forecasted for the US Heartland. 2021 global soybean supply is forecast to remain tight, largely predicated on strong Chinese demand. Local soybean bids continue to hover around $16.00/bu picked up depending on location. The Faba bean market continues to have decent demand for higher quality grades with #2 Faba bids in the range of $9.00/bu FOB farm, location dependent. Dry bean market prices remain well supported, coupled with healthy export numbers. New crop dry bean acres are forecast to decrease both north and south of the border.

Canola futures are trading up again today after a week of solid gains. These gains come on the back of last weeks USDA report estimating less than expected acreage for corn and soybeans. May futures are at $793/MT, up big time from last week when they were $757/MT. July futures currently sit at $735/MT, also up from last week when they were $715/MT. Local basis levels remain strong in many areas as unsold canola stock on farm continues to tighten. While new crop futures aren’t seeing as big of a spike as the nearby futures, they are still up from last week with November sitting at $629/MT. With these strong values, one must expect a significant increase in canola acres this growing season.

Canaryseed is holding strong again this week and with new and old crop bids around $0.30/lb, it’s tough to go wrong making sales. New crop canaryseed is still trading at $0.30c/lb FOB farm with an act of God in some locations, but bids are getting tougher to find. Keep in mind these contracts are only on the first 10bu/acre, so you will have overage to play the market with later on should the value creep up. Old crop bids have perked up a touch with some interest at $0.32-$0.33/lb FOB farm for summertime movement. Quicker movement is becoming harder to find, but we suggest you post an offer and see if someone will take it at a slightly discounted price. Seed sales are almost coming to an end as we hear rumours of some growers in the field and others getting very close. With that being said we do still have a good supply left, so talk with your merchant if you’re looking for last minute options.

The lentil market has been sideways to weaker this week on most types of lentils. Spot prices on #2 large greens are down a cent or so to $0.34-$0.35/lb FOB farm as of late, while #1 small greens likely still trade at $0.35/lb on farm. Reds continue to flutter around $0.29 to $0.295 on farm depending on area and freight costs. New crop prices for fall make some sense at $0.28 picked up on farm on #2 reds and $0.32-$0.33 on farm for a #2 or better large green. These are solid starting points to get some market risk off your plate on contracts that carry an act of God with drought protection, if it comes to that.  Projected overall lentil acres seeded in Canada are about the same as last year with some rejuggling on types: less reds and a few more greens. US acres look to increase on the green lentil side of things and as that is mostly what they seed, their overall lentil acres will likely be up. Talk of price strengthening in the Indian market may lead to some price increase but we won’t know until it happens and there is still a fairly strong export pace from Australia to tamp down our price expectations.

The oat market remains relatively unchanged from last week. We continue to see bids in the high $3’s to low $4’s/bu for milling oats with pushed out movement. If you are looking to lock in some new crop milling oats, we’re seeing mid $3’s for Sept.-Dec. movement with 2022 movement ranging around $4/bu. The closer you are to the Manitoba boarder the better, as most product is bid to head east. On the feed side, buyers are still looking for heavy product and paying anywhere from $3 – $3.50/bu picked up on the farm depending on location. If product is coming in light, look for the discounts to be applied.

Chickpea markets overseas have been seeing a bit of uptick in value despite India and Pakistan being in the middle of harvest.  Canada is still reporting a drop in acres by an estimated 24% while the US is slated to increase 7% from last year. There is no question that both the US and Canada are experiencing dry conditions. With chickpeas in the bins from up to 3 years ago, growers making last minute changes to their rotation could mean a shift in these statistics. The market bids have not moved from last week ranging from $0.32-$0.33/lb for a #2 large Kabuli FOB farm for May-July movement. New crop bids are still $0.25-$0.27/lb FOB farm with an AOG and sample/feed grade bids are coming in around $0.18/lb depending on the downgrading factor.

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.


Rayglen Market Comments – March 31, 2021

USDA:
March 31st was the release of both the seeding intentions and the projected carryout stocks.  The market moved dramatically higher as the seeding intentions forecast by the USDA fell significantly short of the market anticipations.  Soybeans being the greatest market driver over the past 3 months, acreage was estimated to increase from 83.1m last year to 87.6 however the market was expecting a number closer to 90 million acres.  Corn estimates were almost unchanged at 91.14m up from 90.8 last year where the market was looking for 93 million acres.  Spring wheat was estimated at 11.74m from 12.25 last year, with most of the wheat production coming from 46.358m (44.349 in ’20) Winter wheat well out of dormancy at this point. Other crops worth mentioning are Durum at 1.540m (1.684 in ’20), Canola at 2.115 (1.825 last), Flax at 400k (305 last), Lentils at 611k (528 last), Peas at 893k (999 last) and chickpeas being somewhat unchanged at 290k (270 last and 860 in ’18).  No major changes in the stocks worth mentioning, rather the excitement was from a smaller than anticipated projected planting.

We would speculate the estimates by the USDA are quite conservative and that the actual number will be more in line with the trade estimates.  There is certainly a time delay in obtaining and releasing these numbers, and they are just that, estimates.  The next big report will be in June, and one would expect bigger increases in corn and beans versus the March report.

The USDA report shows wheat acres decreasing from 12.5 mil last year to 11.74 mil this year. As well, durum acres are also down from 1.68 mil acres to 1.54 mil acres. As such we’ve seen a little bump up in new crop milling durum prices with $8.50/bu picked up on the farm for Oct.-Dec. movement in SE Sask. There also seems to be a little uptick in old crop feed wheat with some prices popping back up to $7.75/bu FOB in the right location for pushed out movement. Maybe someone should relay those prices to the milling market, as a #1 13.5% pro HRSW sits patiently waiting to join the party. Bids delivered to plant in Central Saskatchewan hover around that $7.50 – $7.65/bu for late Spring/Summer movement, which as we can see is cheaper than feed bids in some cases. New crop wheat pricing is lurking in the bushes with less than a few indications available, so if you have a firm offer on milling or feed let your merchant know.

Soybean futures rocketed to limit up (70 c/bu USD) today based on the USDA Prospective Planting Report. Soybean acres were forecasted at 87.6 million, much lower than anticipated. Local soybean bids now hover around $16.00/bu picked up depending on location. The faba bean market has received a shot in the arm from domestic milling and processing demand. Faba bids are in the range of $9.00/bu FOB farm, location dependent. Dry bean market prices remain well supported coupled with robust export numbers.

After a tough start to the week, canola has rebounded in a big way today due the bullish news coming from the USDA report. Canola takes direction a limit up soybean market today, and at time of writing May canola futures are also limit up on the day and sitting at $757/MT. Although an impressive gain, values are still down from the same time last week when they were at $792/MT. July futures are also near to testing the upper limit and are currently showing $715/MT at time of writing. Last week we were seeing the July futures at $738/MT. Looking at new crop, we’re actually seeing an increase from last week in the November futures after today’s big day bringing it up to $616/MT. It will be interesting to see if canola can trend back up to recent highs as the week finishes up on this bullish report.

As has been suspected over the last couple weeks, the price of barley is slowly starting to tail off on old crop. Feed bids at $6.00/bu FOB farm are still out there, but currently growing harder to find. This week, emphasis remains on selling what is left in the bins. Reports still suggest an increase in barley acres and whether it be malt or feed, current feed vs malt bids suggest majority will be pushed into the feed market. We all know how the malt barley game is played, so even if most of the acres being seeded are malt varieties, you can expect that there will be a good chunk that will not be malt quality. Buyers are seeing this as well, so it’s likely a safe bet to think that the price of feed is not going higher anytime soon. New crop bids at $5.00/bu FOB are still kicking around which makes for a great starting point. The malt side of things remains quiet, so putting a value on it is difficult. For the most part, many buyers either don’t have an active bid or are right around the same value as feed. Current COVID shutdowns have decreased overall use and demand for malt is not necessarily the same as it has been in previous years. Sporting venues, concerts and restaurants not being at full capacity plays a big roll into this demand and remaining competitive with current feed pricing is tough for malt buyers. At the end of the day, if you are growing a malt variety, there aren’t any rules saying you can’t lock up 10-25% of your production as feed now and look to malt markets for the overage come harvest time. By now it is no secret that the high-priced feed market is being pushed by China’s urgency to buy, so beware that this market could very well drop off overnight if they decide they no longer want or need barley. All in all, would you rather wait another 2 months to potentially gain $0.20/bu or take a $1.50/bu (or more) hit?

Canaryseed is still very strong this week. New crop prices have pushed back a touch in some instances, but we are still trading high value contracts with an act of God. Right now, bids are sitting around $0.295/lb FOB farm, with opportunities for an additional half penny if the freight warrants it. Like we have said in previous weeks, this looks to be a very good place to get 10bu/acre locked up on some or all of your acres. If acres go up like they are projected to, we could very well see some price softness come harvest. All in all, signing a contract at above average pricing is a good play to take some risk of the table. Old crop prices are still holding strong with options for quick delivery at discounted values or, deferred delivery at top end values. Highest spot bids are currently sitting at $0.325/lb FOB farm for Summer shipment in good freight areas. Seed sales are getting close to wrapping up, so if you are still looking for product let us know, as we have a good supply of certified left.

The pea market has taken a decline in pricing and whether that is due to seasonal tendencies, exports slowing, or more likely a combination of the two, yellow peas have pulled off their highs.  Most of our buyers have moved yellow pea bids to $10 – 10.50/bu picked up. New crop values have also softened to $8.50 – 9.00/bu picked up with the latter getting harder to find and movements being pushed out into early 2022. Green peas remain lackluster with old crop bids posted at $9 – 9.50/bu picked up ($10 delivered in a few areas). New crop values remain at $9.00/bu picked up on greens in most cases. Maple peas have not fluctuated much with bids at $10 – 10.50/bu picked up on old crop (variety specific), while new crop values are bid at $9 – 9.50/bu picked up. As per reports, there is still optimism of strong Chinese demand for the 2021/2022 marketing year, however, there are threats to consider. These include, China’s uncertain feed pea demand and Ukraine potentially supplying more of China’s 2021/2022 demands, previously heavily dominated by Canada.

The oats market continues its sideways run of strong prices. Spot bids are still catching high $3’s to $4/bu on a #2 milling oat in many areas of the province for Summer movement and new crop bids remain at similar levels once you push into Jan.-March of 2022. These values should be a big push for oats to get seeded this year, but the strength in the market across many different crops keeps a cap on things going too wild. No act of God on oats contracts does pose some risk, but the high price does pose some risk protection in the assumption markets should not be able to push too much higher. As most of you know, many buyers are zero tolerance on glyphosate sprayed on oats so keep that in mind as you do your crop and harvest planning this year. Spraying glyphosate preharvest will close up a large portion of the market to you.  

Not much change in flax prices this week other than the fact that the pool of buyers willing to pay $23.00/bu FOB for Summer months is dwindling. If you still have flax in the bins there is a $7/bu spread between old and new crop, so holding onto old crop at this point is risky. New crop contracts are still available with the market now closer to $16.00/bu picked up and earlier movements at that price are mostly booked up. If the new crop acre projections are correct, then we could see that market drop further. Analysts have mentioned that they are forecasting an increase in seeded acres in the Black Sea region up 25% from last year. That could boost production upwards of 47%. Seems that prices are only holding sideways is because of concerns about dry conditions locally, but keep in mind that may not offset the bigger crops overseas.

Lentil markets remain quiet this week with minimal trades taking place compared to years past at the same time. Green lentils are still under pressure as a larger amount remains in the bins than originally thought as we head into the last four months before new crop arrives. At this stage we aren’t seeing any reason for a price rally in the near future, but if crop conditions look poor in mid to late June, we may see a late season spike.  When it comes to marketing your green lentils there are few things to consider. At this point most green lentil producers are concerned with moisture and most still have product in the bin. We currently see a 5-cent gap between old and new crop, so what are the marketing options? We believe signing new crop offers two good options. First option: hold your old crop and if you’re fearful of lack of moisture then sign-up new crop with an AOG. If there is a crop failure due to drought (or anything else) the AOG comes into play, presumably bids rise, and you sell product in the bin for increased revenue. Second option: sign up new crop and if crop conditions look good, sell the product in the bin before the expected market collapse. In either case, with no immediate market rally in sight, growers need to consider locking in some profitability. When it comes to marketing you won’t always get it 100% right, however, locking in profitability and limiting downside risk is always good a plan.

Chickpeas remain stable this week with trades taking place between $0.32-$0.33/lb FOB farm depending on sizing for May-July movement.  New crop bids are similar to old crop values, but the number of buyers willing to purchase is fewer. Most buyers are concerned with the amount of 7mm sized product in the sample and wanting product to contain under 10%. There are a few buyers that would look at purchasing chickpeas that have over 10% 7mm size, but contracts are likely to carry some discount. Either way, there are options available to move your product and we urge growers to reach out with sizing breakdowns at the ready. Chickpea trades remain quiet with producers reluctant to sell waiting for a rally. Of course, this market has not taken off like most were expecting and buyers sit idly, but comfortably by, content with trickling in product. Saskatchewan Pulse Growers “In the Market” report suggested that India’s chickpeas will be smaller than expected but they will still produce a sizable crop. This may be enough to hold prices at bay for a while.

The talk around mustard recently is how many acres are being planted this year. Will planted acres be enough paired with average yields to at least keep stocks stable? Will the stocks be impacted by even the slightest production problem this year? This all remains to be seen, but generally things are being viewed as potentially tight. Prices, for now, remain stable at $0.38-$0.39/lb on #1 brown mustard, $0.41-$0.42/lb on #1 yellow and $0.32-$0.34/lb on #1 oriental depending on variety. Oriental still carries the premium on Forge type over Cutlass although the gap to appears to have narrowed slightly over the past 2-3 months. Movement can be as short as April and as long as June on some contracts, so talk to your merchant for options that meet your needs. Strong new crop prices are trading at 10 bu/ac with an act of God, and we have bids relatively similar to spot prices available for a September through July program. Last minute seed is available for mustard, and possibly delivered to your yard if you live in Saskatchewan. Give us a call to see if we can still deliver to you.

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.


Rayglen Market Comments – March 23, 2021

Not a lot of change from last week in the wheat markets. Feed prices remain persistent and have been trading between $7.00 to $7.50/bu FOB farm pending farm location and freight costs. The milling CWRS market has been holding on as well with bids for 12.5% protein ranging between $7.40 to $7.60/bu for April/Aug. delivery. For growers with 13.5%+ protein product, bids sit between $7.60 and $7.80/bu delivered for April/Aug. The new crop durum market has some prolonged interest this week with price indications around $8.00-$8.50/bu FOB farm in the Southeast part of Saskatchewan. Old crop durum has been trading around $8.50/bu delivered to plant in many areas.

There have been very few positive fluctuations in the pea market over the past weeks. If anything, old crop yellow peas have softened a bit. Most of our buyers have moved their bids to $10.50/bu delivered on yellows, as waiting for cheaper new crop supplies is of more interest. New crop has still been trading at $9.00/bu picked up, however, movements are getting pushed out to early 2022. Green peas remain quiet as growers wait for $10.00/bu FOB while buyers haven’t waivered from $10.00/bu delivered. There have been a few options of delivered bids getting pushed slightly higher, but those tend to get filled quickly. Maple peas, once again, remain consistent. Old crop is trading at $10.00 – $11.00/bu picked up (variety specific for the latter) and new crop bids are $9.00 – $9.50/bu FOB. Looking overseas; Australia’s pea crop is quite large compared to last year, however we have yet to see their exports aggressively hit the market. Even if they do, it is unlikely to have a large global impact assuming China’s demand remains constant.

This week, oats are still sitting competitively priced, with delivered old crop values posting $4 – $4.50/bu. A good chunk of our milling oat bids remain set for delivery into Manitoba, therefore, the more Eastern you are, the more aggressive the bid. For old crop, movements are getting pushed out to Summertime shipments, but we can still find some quicker options, if needed, at a discount. If you have feed oats on the farm, we have bids around $3.50/bu picked up if the weight is 40lbs +. Buyers are focused on the weight of product and if there are any road bans to work around, so make sure you have this information when calling your merchant for a bid.

Canaryseed markets remain steady once again and have shown no change from last week. We are still seeing buyers post very strong new and old crop bids and believe growers should take advantage of these. Right now, $0.30/lb FOB farm, with an act of God should trade in many areas for new crop. These contracts are on 10bu/acre, so getting a bit of your production locked up at this price is a great way to hedge downside risk. Projected acres are supposed to go up, and with these high new crop prices there might be a few extra acres that get switched over. Old crop bids are still strong, but movement is getting pushed out. Bids right now are around $0.32-$0.33/lb FOB farm for May-July timeframe. If you need to empty a bin or move a few loads, an offer at a lower value might trade for quicker shipment. A reminder once again, that we still have seed available so call your merchant if you are interested.

Barley markets remain in strength this week. Although it seems to be on a bit of a rollercoaster ride for daily spot prices, the change is only a few cents up or down. Targeting $6.00/bu at the bin will likely have a good shot at trading so long as freight costs aren’t excessive. Delivery periods are pushing out to May-July but given the dollar figure offered, this is still a great option. Nothing much to speak of on the malt trade side of things but given current and previous feed barley pricing province wide, there is not much left sitting in the bins; nor should there be. New crop barley is a same story, different day, topic right now. Lock some in at $5.00/bu and roll the dice on the rest.  This leaves you with insurance that some product will be moving in the Fall with a decent value and relatively low risk contract. Feed barley and malt barley seed is getting harder to find as the days grow closer to seeding. If you are on the fence, we suggest that now is the time to take the plunge. Not only is the pricing attractive right now for barley, but it makes a great rotation crop on the farm. Call a Rayglen rep today to discuss more and learn about your options whether it be new crop, old crop, or seed.  

Flax prices are still holding around $23.00/bu picked up into Summer months, but the pool of buyers willing to pay those values has declined significantly due to export sales and lower supplies. There is also risk for new crop pricing as global supplies are expected to increase for the 2021 crop year.  We can still offer $16.00-$16.50/bu picked up, with an act of God, but movement time frames vary. The USDA will issue their intentions of acres report next week and while flax prices in the US were slower to rally, an increase in seeded acres to the South of us is also expected. With these higher-than-average new crop prices still available, locking in the first 10-15bu/ac takes risk off the table. Analysts feel like there is an inverse in price coming sooner than later. The only factor that could support these prices is concern about dry conditions in North America, but that may not offset the larger crops in the Black Sea region.

Soybean futures price volatility appears to be narrowing this week and it’s anybody’s guess as to how long this will last. Recent support is coming from the veg oil complex. Whereby shrinking global veg oil stocks and growing demand for green energy have put veg oil futures in a state of constant climb. Brazilian harvest progress and US prospective planting reports will be increasingly important market factors over the coming weeks. Local soybean bids now hover around $16.00/bu picked up depending on location. The faba bean markets remain the same and stay largely focused on domestic feed demand. Australia is back online with faba production and is dominating Egyptian imports. Feed faba bids are in the range of $8.00/bu FOB farm, location dependent. Dry bean market prices remain well supported coupled with robust export numbers.

The chickpea market has been fairly sideways for a couple weeks on spot and new crop values. Current bids are around $0.31-$0.32/lb picked up in the yard for #2 quality including some sizing restrictions depending on the buyer you are dealing with. We have had a few rumors of higher prices coming down the pipeline, but thus far nothing has materialized, and we still sit here waiting for markets to heat up. Export of Canadian chickpeas around the world remains at a slower pace than normal with US still the biggest buyer of our product in recent months. There still seems to be some optimism that better days are ahead for the spot market in Kabulis, so trade is light with many farmers waiting to see what happens. New crop prices show some buyer interest at $0.33/lb FOB farm on #2 product, which is not a terrible starting point to get some risk off your plate.

Large green lentils are once again seeing downside pressure as bids lose another cent this week with some buyers. Current bids are anywhere between $0.36-$0.37/lb delivered plant with buyers stating that the markets are not showing any interest in purchasing large greens at this time, nor are they showing any upside in future months. The market is also seeing pressure from the farmgate side of things as buyers receive multiple calls from producers wanting to move lentils. The spot red lentil market is holding a bit steadier and is still trading at $0.29/lb FOB farm in many areas. New crop reds are still bid between $0.27/lb and $0.2925/lb with the variance dependent on whether you want an act of God and/or picked up or delivered plant. Large green lentil new crop bids are holding strong $0.30-0.32/lb FOB farm with the latter likely to trade in most areas. Spot small green lentil bids remain stagnant at $0.33 – $0.34/lb FOB farm, while new crop trades at $0.30/$0.28 for #1/#2 product, FOB farm with AOG.  Expect lentils to remain quiet until we get into seeding/early summer; we may see prices start to improve if the new crop looks unfavorable.

After an up and down week on the canola futures, today we see a jump in the nearby months, while new crop numbers are down slightly. May futures are sitting at $792/MT, which is up from last week when it was at $781/MT.  July futures are at $738/MT, which is up from $734/MT at the same time last week. Some rumours have been making their way into the market, such as China cancelling purchases of Canadian canola as well as Eastern Canada importing two vessels of canola from Ukraine. These rumours come a couple of weeks after China cancelled vessels of canola from Australia. There is still bullishness in the canola market despite these rumours as tight stocks and strong crush margins hold the market up.

The mustard market remains stationary as buyers and sellers seem content at these levels, for now.  Seeded acreage is still a hot topic and how demand will shape up as we enter year 2 of covid lockdowns. Spot bids remain at $0.38-$0.39/lb on #1 brown mustard, $0.41-$0.42/lb on yellow and $0.32-$0.34/lb on oriental with variety being a factor on the price. Oriental still carries the premium on Forge type over Cutlass from buyers at this time. All spot bids are being quote as FOB farm for a May/June type window, although offers may shorten that up.  Strong new crop prices are trading at 10 bu/ac with an act of God, and we have bids relatively similar to spot prices available for a September through July program. Last minute seed is available for mustard, and possibly delivered to your yard if you live in Saskatchewan. Call us to see if we can still get it to you at this late date.

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.


Rayglen Market Comments – March 17, 2021

If you are currently sitting with barley in the bin and reading this commentary, now is the time to sell. Although the price for old crop feed barley has not fluctuated much in the past couple weeks, we have seen some buyers hint at prices softening. Values are area dependant, but you are looking at anywhere from $5.70 – $6.20/bu at the bin for feed. With seeding and harvest coming right around the corner the demand for old crop barley at these values may lessen off in the upcoming days. Reports are being shown that the expected seeded acres of barley, whether it be malt or feed, are going to be up this year. As they should be, given the fact that you can lock in roughly $5.00/bu picked up on feed for new crop, making it one of the top returns on investment crops this year. A great starting point is to lock in even 25% of what you might be expecting to produce this year. The malt side of prices is rather quiet, but there is suspicion that lots are trying to sit back and see how the crop year is going to pan out. We all know how the malt barley game is and it is either malt or feed, but given pricing on feed barley today, that’s a game you can afford to play and win.

New crop is getting closer, and this warm weather is sure making us feel like Spring has sprung. With that, we had a few buyers pull back their yellow pea bids this week to $10.00 – $10.50/bu picked up. Supplies are still quite low, but buyers are starting to feel like they can wait until new crop comes off at cheaper values. If you have any yellow peas left in the bin, we recommend moving into the market at these still historically high values. New crop is still trading at $9.00/bu picked up with act of God, but some buyers have pushed their movement windows out. This is a good level to get 10 – 20 bushels on the books. Green peas have bids at $9.00 – $9.50/bu picked up with demand very quiet. Farmers are targeting $10.00/bu, however, there seems to be no buyer interest at this level. New crop greens are also at $9.00/bu picked up. Maple pea bids have increased slightly to $10.00 – $11.00/bu picked up (variety specific for the latter), with new crop values at $9.00 – $9.50/bu picked up.

Old crop flax is not getting as much attention as it was a month ago. Prices still range from $21.00-$23.00/bu picked up, however the pool of buyers at those values is getting smaller and we are starting to see some pushback at these levels. The highest bids are quoted for July shipment. New crop is holding at $16.50/bu FOB with act of God with timeframe for movement varying from buyer to buyer. As mentioned before, these are historically high prices and leaving flax in the bins unpriced at this point or not signing up new crop at 10bu/acre, leaves risk on the table. The feeling of this market is that seeing an increase in prices is just not there. There are several factors to consider such as an increase in flax acres along with overseas product still making its way into the market. If you are still looking for seed, call the office as supplies are running low.

Chickpea markets are sitting on the edge of their seats to see if a new tender will be awarded and if so, to whom it will go to. All things considered; it would translate to a slight bump in the value for the nearby to shake out just enough to cover the required tonnage. We do not expect to see a full market rally. While statistics rumor a decrease of 12% in chickpea acres in Canada, the US market chatter could indicate otherwise. Conversations with growers about the ever-changing rotation have chickpeas back in the mix. It is believed that pea prices have been strong enough that growers expect a lot more acres than usual, in turn reducing chickpea acres and creating a potential uptick. This is all speculation but at this point, everything is worth mentioning. If you are one of the growers that wants to consider chickpeas and are looking for seed, give us a call and we will get you set up!

In the last week soybean futures appear to be on a slight downward trajectory, albeit still hovering in historically lofty territory. Recent market pressure is being attributed to Brazilian harvest progress and institutional profit taking. Local soybean bids now hover around $16.00/bu picked up depending on location. The faba bean market remains the same and stays largely focused on domestic feed demand. Australia is back online with faba production and is dominating Egyptian imports. Feed faba bids are in the range of $8.00/bu FOB farm, location dependent. Dry bean market prices remain well supported coupled with robust export numbers. New crop dry bean contracts are available at attractive price levels. Contact Rayglen to book your acres.

Wheat markets continue to shine this week with prices not changing much from last. Feed bids remain strong trading between $7.00 to $7.75/bu FOB depending on location and freight. The milling CWRS market has been very stable as well with bids for 12.5% protein ranging between $7.80 to $7.90/bu for April/May delivery. For 13.5% protein product, prices are range between $8.05 to $8.10/bu delivered for April/May. New crop durum has some renewed interest this week with indications of $8.00-$8.50/bu FOB farm in the Southeast part of Saskatchewan. Durum that is in the bin has been trading around $8.50 to $9.00/bu delivered to plant in quite a few areas.

The mustard market has been running a little sideways this past week as spot bids remain at $0.38-$0.39/lb on #1 brown mustard, $0.41-$0.42/lb on yellow and $0.32-$0.34/lb on oriental with variety being a factor on the price. Oriental still carries the premium on Forge type over Cutlass from buyers at this time. All spot bids are being quote as FOB farm for a May/June type window, although offers may shorten that up. Stocks have been tight this year but at the same time demand has not been particularly strong due to current circumstances (Covid), so prices have hummed along pretty much sideways for most of the year. This is primarily seen in yellow, with a little strength on Oriental and Brown. If you are looking for new crop prices to take a bit of risk of your plate on 10 bu/ac, we have bids relatively similar to spot prices available for a September through July program. If those don’t float your boat, let us know what does and we can show it around to buyers to see who might match your terms.

Canola futures saw an increase at the end of last week, but most of those gains have been erased since Monday. May futures are at $781/MT, up just slightly from the $777/MT we were seeing at the same time last week. July futures are at $734/MT, which is about same amount we saw at this time last week. Weakness in oil markets started a small decline in some of the nearby futures but spec fund sales seem to be driving the biggest losses. Tight supplies in the canola market means we should continue to see strong prices for the time being. The November futures held onto their gains a bit better and are at $628.80/MT, up from $617/MT one week ago.

New crop canaryseed jumped last week, but spot contracts continue to stay relatively unchanged, except for movement timelines. Spot bids are now at $0.32-$0.33/lb FOB farm, with an April-June delivery window.  Currently, it is very difficult to find quick movement on spot canaryseed, but you may have some luck on a firm offer below that $0.32 mark. If you have old crop in the bin and want it out before Summer, now is your chance to sign it up. New crop contracts jumped to $0.30/lb FOB farm late last week with a Sept.-Oct. movement timeline, including act of God. With reports suggesting acres going up from last year, taking some risk of the table might be a good play at these very attractive and profitable values. Hope for strong yields and anything over your contracted 10bu/acre you can play the market with. If you are looking for seed, we still have a good supply, so talk with your merchant for more details.

We sure produced some oats this year! With about 4.6mmt harvested, this is the second largest crop produced since 2007/2008 crop year. That being said, demand has been strong and as such, our stocks could grind down to roughly 315K MT, making things a bit tight. Right now, prices continue to stay strong with $4.00-$4.25/bu picked up on the farm for milling quality available, location dependent. New crop pricing also looks attractive with high $3’s on last quarter and $4.00+/bu into the new year and onwards. On the feed side, buyers are looking for dry heavy product so knowing your weight is important as bids can pencil out around that $3.50/bu range.

Looking at the lentil market this week, reds remained stable while large greens slipped another cent. Old crop reds continue to trade in the $0.30/lb range with some buyers biding FOB farm for Summertime movement, pending location. New crop ranges from $0.28/lb FOB up to $0.295 delivered with an act of God. Large greens are now trading at $0.37/lb delivered for Summertime movement with most buyers. Large greens seem to be at a stalemate with buyers unexcited to purchase while sellers wait for one last spike in the market. The green lentil market could be heading for a major correction in price if this year’s carry out is larger than expected and new crop production remains similar to last year. Supply will be more than enough to provide world needs next year.  Small greens remain stable again this week with most buyers wanting to purchase at $0.35/lb delivered for old and $0.30/$0.28 for a #1/#2 quality new crop. In the last couple of weeks, we have had a few calls about French green lentils, so if you still have some in the bins, give us a call and we will find them a home.

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.


Rayglen Market Comments – March 10, 2021

 

Lentil markets make it through another week relatively unchanged. Old crop reds continue trading between $0.29-$0.30/lb with new crop at $0.27-$0.28/lb FOB, including AOG and $0.29-$0.30/lb on a deferred delivery contract, delivered plant. Large green lentils are still trading at $0.37/lb FOB or $0.38/lb delivered for April-July movement. New crop is in light trade with indications at $0.32/lb FOB farm, with an act of God. Small green lentils have traded this week at $0.34/lb FOB farm or slightly higher depending on freight for April through July movement.  Based on our internal crop planner, red lentils at $0.30/lb delivered now pencil out as the #1 return on investment for new crop. Markets are sitting at historically high values for Fall delivery, and we think it might be time to consider taking some risk off the table. On the old crop side of the things, one needs to look at the risk versus the reward. Do you hold out for another cent or two and risk the return of prices to low-mid 20’s? If sales don’t pick up before the end of the crop year, some companies may even go to no bid and wait for new crop to become available at a cheaper price. This is something to consider as it wouldn’t be the first time that we’ve seen this. Large green lentils stock is showing there may be more available product than first thought. Again, something to keep in mind when thinking about what to do next. High thirties are likely not the worst value you’ve sold large greens for and at least at these levels you’re still profitable. The last thing to consider is the movement time frame. Currently, many companies are pushing delivery windows to July, which may suggest that at this point in time there is not a lot of demand from overseas.

Canola futures rebounded in a big way at the end of last week and have been mostly sideways this week until taking a big step downwards today. Both May and July futures are down roughly $19/MT on the day so far. May futures are currently at $777.20/MT, which is up from $756/MT last week. Meanwhile July futures are at $734/MT, up from $720/MT last week. A USDA report from yesterday left most markets unchanged, which should keep markets fairly bullish with tight ending stocks moving forward. However, a drop in Chinese grain and oilseed markets last night is causing the slide in prices that we are seeing today. November futures are also trading lower today but are still up from the same time last week at $617.30/MT. Strong futures combined with aggressive local basis levels are creating some very attractive new crop options that are worth looking at.

The mustard market continues strong this week with new and old crop mustards booking at a steady pace. Prices stayed relatively similar this week on all types and talk continues about just how many seeded acres will hit the ground this year. Brown mustard prices remain strong with spot and new crop at $0.38 to $0.39/lb. Yellow mustard prices remain similar with $0.42/lb trading for both spot and new crop. Oriental Forge or Vulcan remain strong after last week’s little pop. New crop will now trade at $0.34/lb while old crop is sitting at about $0.33/lb at the bin. Cutlass new crop has hit a high of $0.32/lb and spot is being bid around the $0.31/lb cent mark. We are getting to the end of our mustard seed program as trucks are being loaded and soon shipping to destinations. Please call us if you have any seed needs so we can get you booked last minute for delivery to your farm.

Canaryseed markets remain virtually unchanged this week with only a slight adjustment to old crop delivery windows. Bids now are being posted for April-June movement at $0.32/lb FOB farm. With spot bids still strong, we caution growers not to miss this opportunity hoping that something will pop up for quicker delivery. An offer at a lower value might get you some quicker movement, but even that is hard to determine at this moment. Reports suggest that the acres might be up from the year previous and signing a new crop contract at $0.28/lb FOB farm on 10bu/ acre with AOG is a highly suggested power play move. Taking a market value of only $0.04/lb less than what is in your bins now seems like a writing on the wall scenario. Take some of the risk off your table, hope for strong yields this year and play the market with anything over and above your contracted 10bpa. If values are higher come harvest, you can only average up, but if the market falls to its previously established comfort level (low to mid 20’s) at least you’ve got some product locked in. As always, reach out to a merchant today to discuss seed options.

Soybean futures are going through another round of profit taking after yesterday’s USDA report and their increased projection in Brazilian soybean production. It’s expected that this will be a short-term set back as global soybean consumption remains voracious with global ending forecast to be the slimmest in over a decade. Local soybean bids now hover around $16.00/bu picked up depending on location. The Faba bean market remains the same and stays largely focused on domestic feed demand. Australia is back online with faba production and is dominating Egyptian imports. Feed faba bids are in the range of $8.00/bu FOB farm, location dependent. Dry bean market prices remain well supported coupled with robust export numbers. New crop dry bean contracts are available at attractive price levels. Contact Rayglen to book your acres.

Who continues buying all the yellow peas and is currently the only one supporting our yellow pea market? China.  However, we’re not the only player trying to get in on the action. Ukraine has been working through agreements to get their peas into China, which would be direct competition for Canadian peas. Current forecasts estimate that Ukraine will produce 700K tonnes which is up from last year as per reports and would infringe on Canadian sales if an agreement can be reached. Yellow pea pricing remains strong at $10.50 – $11.00/bu picked up as supplies have become very tight. New crop is bid at $9.00/bu picked up with an act of God. We recommend taking some risk off the table and signing up a few bushels/acre at this value. Green peas remain stagnant at $9.00 – $9.50/bu picked up with new crop also at $9.00/bu. Maple peas are $10.50/bu picked up on old and $9.00 – $9.50/bu on new crop. Yellow peas will remain strong IF China keeps buying at these levels which would keep supplies tight into 2021/2022. As for green peas, hopefully we see a positive price reaction as some acres are shifted into yellows for this marketing year. 

The wheat market continues strong with product steadily trading from $7.00 to $7.75/bu FOB depending on location and freight costs. The milling CWRS market has been very secure as well with bids for 12.5% protein ranging between $7.95 to $8.00/bu delivered for April/May. For 13.5% protein product, prices range between $8.15 to $8.20/bu delivered for April/May.  The new crop durum market has been quiet for a while now and trades seem to have tapered off. We suggest targeting $8.00-$8.50/bu range FOB farm in the Southeast part of Saskatchewan and slightly under those values as you move North and West.  Old crop durum has been trading around $8.50 to $9.00/bu delivered to plant in many areas.

An unchanged barley market has feed quality still trading around $6.00/bu FOB farm while malt sales remain virtually nonexistent. As always, bids are freight dependant and will fluctuate a few cents, plus or minus, depending on where the barley is located. Active bids on malt seem to be at a standstill and we have reason to believe Maltsters are attempting to clean up what they already have on the books before contracting more. With planting right around the corner, don’t be surprised if we see buyers sit and wait to see what this year’s crop is going to bring before heavily booking. New crop feed barley is still sitting around that $5.00/bu picked up mark, pending location, but we suggest growers show offers to maximize that dollar value. Reports of some buyers dropping their pricing arise this week in anticipation of seeded acres being up. This is another commodity we highly suggest forward contracting to hedge the downside risk. Although it’s not necessary to go out and sign up 100% of your estimated production, having 25% locked up gives you a good cushion to work with at profitable values. Rolling the dice on only 75% takes some risk off your plate. Holding out and hoping for a higher number off the combine may pay off, but if everyone out there plays that game, then it becomes a supply vs. demand scenario. Maybe the risk of holding out will pay off, but there is also the chance that it won’t, and you will leave yourself with the “could’ve, should’ve, would’ve, had I known” attitude. Locking some in now guarantees some cash flow, bin space and a delivery window come harvest. Yes, there is a chance prices could go up, but with that being said there is also the chance they go down. We all know how the market works, our guess is, if markets go up it will be by cents, but if prices drop it will be by dollars.

Flax acres are expected to increase this year, both overseas and domestically.  New crop can still be locked in at $16.50/bu picked up in the yard with an act of God and even though some shipping periods are getting pushed out, locking in at these values makes sense. With so much uncertainty in the market coupled with increased acres worldwide, we could potentially see a mean a drop in flax values. Old crop flax prices have been steady as of late in the $21-$23/bu range FOB farm. Those higher values are running into Summer month delivery with the lower end bids for movement in the next couple months. With such historically high prices and the market seeing uncharted territory, sitting on old crop flax is quite a gamble at this stage of the game. Taking risk of the table needs to be considered. We have already started to see some pullback from buyers as they don’t want to be caught with high priced contracts when this market dips. If you still are looking for flax seed, those supplies are also dwindling, so give us a call to check options.

When it comes to chickpeas it’s no secret that many producers are holding onto stocks from 2 and 3 years ago. When buyers are discussing opportunities about new sales, the discussion of current crop year stock has only come up. If it has been a while since you have checked your stocks, it might be a good time to get a handle on the quality of that older product in case selling opportunities present themselves. New crop Chickpeas are a bit of an outlier this week with a bid to purchase #2 large kabuli’s at $0.33/lb FOB farm with an AOG for Sept.-Dec. movement.  This is not a widespread bid, but it is nice to see interest in the coming production. Old crop values are still around $0.30/lb FOB farm and more if willing to deliver in to select locations. There is still chatter of another World Food tender, but thus far there are no accepted bids to bump up the current crop value. Interest in damaged chickpeas has buyers looking to pay up to $0.25/lb FOB farm depending on the down grading factor.

Not much change to report on the oats front as pricing remains strong on old crop with $4.25/bu picked at the bin available for further out movement and location dependent. Just keep an eye out when you are looking to lock in old crop as road bans are or will be popping up in a good number of locations in short order. New crop pricing for the last quarter of the year seems to be hovering around that $4.00 -$4.15/bu delivered in range. Call your Rayglen merchant for pricing specifics for your location. Feed prices remain firm at $3.50/bu for dry heavy product.

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.


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