• AG BROKERS WITH AN EDGE
Submit Your Grain Offer

Grain News

Rayglen Market Comments – September 16, 2020

Chickpea markets are becoming the first topic of conversation again as we get into harvest. Initial numbers out show expected yield for the 2020 production will be, on average, 27 bu/acre but concern of the size of the chickpeas has come to light. Timely weather events are believed to have affected the sizing and it is predicted there will be a smaller scale of caliber in the production. End of season frost also occurred which will likely yield some damaged production. Globally, Indian prices are the highest since 2018 which indicates they have been eating through their stocks. This does not translate to a huge jump in value, but it does support a bullish market. Prices have not moved from last week, but chatter has increased, and it is decidedly a bull market with today’s levels being a potential bottom.

The most recent StatsCan report was released showing that the large pea crop that was expected to come off is closer to 4.3 mln tonnes versus the 5 mln tonnes originally thought. Yellow pea tonnage looks to be just under last years numbers with green pea tonnage at a 25% over. As such, we are starting to see a little more firming up in the yellow pea price at $6.75/bu delivered in with green peas staying soft around that $8/bu delivered. The maple pea market continues to flatline as prices hover around that $8.25/bu delivered in with a small pocket in the south east where you may be able to pick up $8/bu FOB farm. With pea harvest winding down keep an eye out for seasonal pattern pricing to edge up. Typically, around this time to November then with a hiatus till the new year, more so on yellows right now versus greens and maples, as supply is available for those two but demand isn’t.

Flax prices are holding strong for another week with bids in the $14.00-$14.25/bu range picked up in the yard depending on movement time frame and quality. The estimated acres are larger than last year, but the little carry-over of good quality flax has kept the prices supported. Another factor surrounding pricing will be if the flax yields are affected by the late July heat and early September frost. China will be increasing their flax imports due to some damage from heavy rains so there will be some pull on Canadian supplies. Russia and Kazakhstan flax yields are still the biggest unknown. However, there seems to be limited selling pressure out of those areas which suggests lower availability.  There are opportunities for quick movement on flax so once harvested, make sure to get samples into us

Mustard markets maintain values this past week despite StatsCan’s correction upwards of 2bu/acre on production to an average of 18.2 bu/ac. The reported fewer acres seeded this year is the concern and the factor that could drive buyer bids higher. In addition, buyer demand has not waivered and ending stocks maintained averages at 60,000 MTS. Harvest progress is ahead of the average at this point and quality is not a concern. Bids today for mustard average through to March as follows: Yellow @ $0.40/lb FOB farm, Brown @ $0.305/lb FOB farm, Oriental Forge @ $0.275/lb & Cutlass @ $0.255/lb FOB farm. While it is early days, this crop is believed to be a front runner in producers minds for increased acres next year; keep this in mind for your planning!

Wheat harvest is well on its way with a recent report suggesting 83% complete which compares to similar numbers on other cereals. Yield reports have been a quite a mix across the province though, as we hear numbers from 30 – 60 bushels per acre. All in all, bids and delivery on wheat (milling and feed) have seen slightly better quotes this week: feed values now sit around $4.75 to $5.35/bu FOB farm for Oct-Dec delivery, while milling bids hover at $6.25/bu delivered plant range depending on location and movement period. We have also seen some lower protein product (12.5%) trading at very attractive levels in central SK. Please call for details on this program.

Production estimates were released for September and lentils were up even more, with StatsCan showing an increase of 36% from last year. A big jump indeed, but so far these numbers have yet to affect pricing. This week #2 large green lentils are catching buyer’s attention and we’ve been trading at 30 cents picked up on farm quite consistently. There has been a bit of questioning on where this strength is coming from and it seems that some buyers are filling a short. Therefore, once filled, we may see some prices soften a bit again. Red lentils have been holding their price at 25 cents picked up and possibly a bit higher if movement is pushed out. As per reports, India’s demand has softened, however, sales are still filling into other destinations which is supporting the market.  Small green lentils haven’t sparked as much interest in comparison, but we do have bids at 24 – 25 cents being shown.

Barley markets showing some strength this week with price moving up around 10 cents per bushel. A few buyers still have September movement available, but for the most part Oct-Dec is quoted. A small premium is seen for Jan-Mar delivery windows. Buyers are suggesting that price increase maybe short lived as once sales are covered, price will slip again. These suggestions make sense when you look at the StatCan numbers released on the September 14, showing a gain of 200,000 tonnes over last year’s ending stock and 300,000 tonnes over 18/19 ending stocks. South east and North East Saskatchewan barley is trading @ $3.75-$4.00/bu, Southwest and West central $4.00-$4.30 and Northwest $3.75-$4.00bu.

Canary seed prices continue to be very strong this week. Prices are up as high as 30 cents FOB on October to November movement now. We are starting to get yield reports on canary into the office. Average seems like a good way to describe it at this point with most reports in the 20’s bushel per acre in a lot of cases. This year’s supply will likely remain tight and support prices at this point from the looks of it. Call your merchant on movement options as we may be able to ship earlier than October to November.  

The oats market is pretty weak these days with milling bids around $2.60 to $2.75/bu picked up in many areas, but movement pushed into next summer. Feed bids are wide ranging from $2.25/bu to $2.75/bu range depending on area and quality, but the feed movement is significantly faster than milling and possibly would allow bins to free up, or bags to empty, within 3-4 weeks. Waiting on milling movement to next summer for little to no premium doesn’t make a ton of sense based on today’s values. Hopefully we see milling rates climb up a bit after we break free of harvest pressure and yield numbers get a little more accurate to how the crop actually ran and not just projections.

Soybean futures caught their breath yesterday after lower August crush numbers. Today is a new day and soybean futures have staged another leg-up fueled by continued Chinese demand and an announcement by the US EPA. EPA announced it will hold refiners to account on renewable inclusion rates. This has direct impact on corn consumption, but as it said “corn floats all boats” and the commodities board turned green today. Local bids are in the range of $10.75/bu picked up on farm. Dry bean harvest reports are in the early stages and average yields are being reported. We continue to get dry bean buying inquiries from a well-supported but not panic driven market. New crop faba bean bids are in the range of $7/bu picked up on farm for zero-tannin varieties. Tannin varieties may command a premium with early indication of $9/bu FOB farm for select tannin varieties.

Canola futures have jumped up sharply today after seeing small losses yesterday. Those losses came from speculators booking in profits and taking their risk off the table. End user demand appears to be driving prices up and this type of price strength at harvest might be a sign of strength to come for the rest of the crop year. November canola futures are sitting at $530.20/MT at time of writing while January futures are $536.90/MT. There is a bit of carry into March/May futures but a slight decline into July. As always, keep an eye on local basis levels and those deferred positions to find that little bit extra.

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.


Rayglen Market Comments – September 9, 2020

The effects of early frost that touched most of western Canada are still yet to be seen. Specifically, on canola, reports suggest this frost could prove to be harmful in a few areas where temperatures dropped below minus 5 degrees Celsius and the crop was still standing. Luckily, many areas have canola swathed now and damage should be limited. We have seen bids perk up a touch this week due to a weaker Canadian dollar, strong soyoil markets and presumably some weather instability. Today, bids range between $10.25 to $11.50/bu depending on which area of the province you are in and delivery timeframe. The highest bids are seen for Jun-Jul 2021 delivery in west central SK. Please call your Rayglen merchant for a firm bid on your farm.

The pea market remains quiet into this week and some classes have even softened a bit more. Yellow peas are being bid up to $6.75/bu delivered plant, greens came down to $7.50 – $8/bu and maple peas remain at the $8/bu picked up mark. Yellow peas seem to have hit their lows, with hope bids will firm up later into the marketing year. Green peas, however, seem to keep slipping and buyer interest is lacking. Green peas are not likely to see the increase that we are expecting in yellows. As per reports, India’s yellow pea and desi pea prices continue to rise due to shrinking supply. This is where we could see some positivity in the yellow pea market further into the year.

Flax prices remain strong this week. With little carry-over, prices are in the $14.00-$14.25/bu range picked up in the yard. Flax supplies for 2020/21 are estimated to be larger than last year, of course considering any impact of frost this week. There is potential for strong exports this coming year to draw supplies down to the 2019/20 levels. China will likely need to increase their flax imports as there are reports that indicate damage due to heavy rains and we are seeing those prices firm up. While most of the Canadian flax crop is still in the field, the US harvest is well advanced. Flax prices are also edging up in Europe due to limited selling pressure from Russia. There is potential for price increases on Canadian supplies going forward.

Chickpeas saw a bit of frost this week but the hope from the market is that anything that might have been affected was already desiccated. There is still an air of uncertainty on the direction of chickpea value as we teeter on harvest and will get a full picture of quality and quantity from this year’s production. Acres were down but are the environmental factors combined with that enough to push the market up? Spot trades for large kabuli’s sitting at $0.27/lb FOB farm for a #2 and so far, no carry for further out delivery. Feed/sample values still at $0.12/lb.

Southern Alberta has pretty much wrapped up their barley harvest, so the onslaught moving into feedlot alley in Lethbridge has backed off. As such, we have seen a bit of a price pick up on barley. Prices are ranging in that $3.50 – $3.80/bu range for some quicker movement with the better pricing the closer to Alberta. If you are looking for stronger prices and are willing to defer delivery, give your Rayglen merchant a call. According to the most recent StatCan report, this year’s barley yield average is being pegged at 71.7bu/a which would make the second highest ever. That coupled with an increase in farm and commercial stocks has the potential for us to be loosening the belt a loop or two. What may possibly spell some relief comes in the form of an ongoing rift between Australia and China as China has imposed 80.5% duties on Australian barley imports. Could there be potential for Canadian barley to make some inroads??

Lentils prices see to gaining strength this week with increased bids in large green and small red lentils.  Markets for red lentils are trading as high as 25-26 cents delivered, while large greens are trading 28-29 delivered on offer. Small greens seem to be stable at 24 cents FOB farm again this week. Markets could be seeing an increase as Stats can released the project ending stocks.  The 20/21 ending stocks are pegged at 161,000 tonnes, which is 100,000 more than this year and 555,000 less than 18/19. A second consecutive year of low ending stock and high-quality lentils may have buyers trying to purchase now as an insurance policy just in case Australia’s and India’s crop have quality and quantity issues. Their crops have yet to be harvested and most of the Canadian crop is now in the bin.

Canary seed prices are holding up solidly in the harvest pressure season. Current bids from a few buyers are at 27 cent/lb picked up on farm for movement in early fall. You can add a cent on the price for movement into late fall or early winter timeline as well. We have not heard too many reports of yield on canary come through the office yet, but expectations are that a decent crop, like most others this year, was hurt by the hot and dry stretch that we saw in July. StatsCan keeps adjusting and readjusting past year’s production to try and account for canary seed that sits in the bins for multiple birthdays then strolls back into the marketplace when 30 cents appears like a Rip Van Winkle of the commodity world. All these updates so our carryover stocks do not appear as a negative number. This year’s supply will remain tight most likely to support prices but if you have bin space issues or bills to pay, we have options to move product in a timely fashion.

Soybean futures managed to stave off a profit taking tremble ahead of Friday’s WASDE report. Chinese demand clashed to offset any significant losses with purchases for their recovering national hog herd along with stockpiling to avoid another shortage. US soybean crop conditions continue to slide with reports of pod aborting due to heat stress. Local bids are in the range of $10.50 picked up on farm. Dry bean harvest is at its early stages across the US with the greatest progress in Washington and lesser amounts as you head east across the US. Dry bean markets remain well supported. New crop faba bean bids are in the range of $7/bu picked up on farm for zero-tannin varieties. Tannin varieties may command a premium with early indications of $9/bu FOB farm for select tannin varieties.

This week we have heard several more reports on mustard yields, and they are all over the map. It certainly depended on the showers this year and the late August heat and dryness seems to have brought expected yields down. Late flowering crops were especially hit hard it seems. Spot yellow is still generally trading at 40 cents/lb FOB farm for September/October movement, but if you need quick movement straight September movement is available today; this could change at any time. Brown sits at 30 cents for September movement still, so far. Oriental bids for short term movement continue to be a challenge with only a few options on the table. Call your merchant about an offer on oriental as a possible way to market it.

Feed wheat prices have stayed the course this week across the province. Bids range between $4.75-$5.25/bu FOB farm depending on location. Some buyers are looking to cover off a few loads for movement in the next week so if you need to free up a bin, now might be a good time to ship some out. We also have options going both east and west, so pricing is firm in more areas than usual. These bids are based on minimum 58 lbs and maximum 14.8% moisture wheat. We do have bids for wheat that does not meet those specs as well at discounted prices.

Milling oats pricing have stagnated a bit, which is not unusual during the harvest season. Prices range from $3.15-$3.35/bu delivered out into Manitoba on a 2CW grade. These prices are obviously more likely to work out of eastern Saskatchewan once freight is considered. On the feed side of the market, we have bids between $2.50-$2.75/bu FOB farm for minimum 42 lbs and maximum 14% moisture oats. As always, we have markets for off spec oats as well. Give us a call with your specs for a price picked up in your yard.

 

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.


Rayglen Market Comments – September 2, 2020

 

The pea market has started the year off at a slow pace with all pea markets trending softer. Yellow peas are trading around that $6.00/bu FOB farm mark maybe a touch higher in the right area. Green peas are trading at $8.00/bu delivered and maples are at $8.00 to 8.25/bu FOB farm. StatsCan is reporting that this will be one of our biggest, if not the biggest pea crop, the province has ever produced. This speculation is based off of their model-based satellite vegetation estimate, which will be revisited in two weeks. When talking to our clients it seems this estimation maybe a little high, as yield seems to be a mixed bag. At this point the markets have not seemed to reacted to the news. We will see if there are adjustments made on the next release from StatsCan.

 

Flax prices continue to remain consistent again this week as trading holds steady sitting around $13.50/bu FOB give or take a quarter or so depending on location. With some new crop coming off and in the bins, yield estimates have picked up to 25bu/a. An increase of over 7% from the previous five years offsetting the slight drop in seeded acres. Let’s hope we continue to see the good quality and bushels as harvest continues. If we look globally, USDA reports show that flax acres have decreased a bit and if they have an average crop, estimates show a double digit decrease in tonnage from the previous year. Drought looks to have caused some issues in Kazakh yields; how much is yet to be determined. Reports on new crop Russian flax is a bit of a question mark as well as no news has really surfaced swaying things one way or another. Overall, exports are tight right now and pricing seems to be a direct beneficiary.

 

The feed barley market has definitely quietened down over the last while due to harvest pressure, a yearly occurrence. The feed price has been ranging between $3.20 to $3.75/bu as FOB farm pricing. As we have mentioned numerous times, the closer you are to the southwest part of the province the better the price is normally. Limited tonnage opportunities will likely arise from time to time throughout the year so firm targets on the table can be effective. Malt barley contracts have been scarce with very few companies actually bidding. Current malt indications are high $4’s to low $5’s depending on malting type and variety; it helps to have samples in to get checked out to help generate firm bids.

 

As seems to be the norm, credible canary seed production data is a bit contradictory and ever changing. Despite last fall’s price spike and the subsequent brisk farmer sales, old crop on-farm inventories still exist predicated on holding on for 1 penny more. It has been proposed that we will carry in more inventory than previous years and that we will produce a little less despite higher seeded acres; ultimately resulting in an approximate 10% increase in total supply. Our Canadian currency has an impact on our local canary seed bid. The CAD has been rising steady since March and has kept pressure on the US equivalent conversion for canary seed. Market has subsided a little from the Oct-Apr run but still remains well supported at the cusp of new crop. Local bids continue to hover around 27 cents/lb picked up on farm.

 

Feed wheat prices have remained stable this week across the province. Bids are ranging between $4.75-$5.10/bu FOB farm. Movement is starting to be pushed out into the new year for some buyers and prompt movement is getting tough to find. Heat blast appears to be an issue in some areas that have moved into the wheat harvest. Some areas are seeing lower yields as well as bushel weight issues. Milling wheat bids have been down so far this crop year with #1, 13.5% protein bids falling below $6/bushel. We do have an opportunity delivered into north central Saskatchewan however, on a #1, 13% protein at $6/bu.

 

A stressful start to the week in lentils as Western Canada was waiting on the decision of the India import tariff, only to be disappointed as they reverted back to the 33% “tax” beyond Aug. It was hoped that their tariff would have continued at the reduced rate of 11% helping prop up prices but that is no longer the case for the remainder of 2020. Mixed reviews of harvest have been rolling in with drier areas taking a hit to yield (15bu/acre) and some areas reporting anywhere from 35-50 bu/acre. New this week are reports of wind damage cutting yields in all sorts of crops as harvest continues. Those exceptional early acres could make up for the later downfall and produce a better than average yielding year but time will tell. There is no doubt that lentils are still a crop that can take a turn with the shift of the market but for now it seems bids of $0.23-$0.24/lb on #2 reds and $0.27/lb on #2 large greens off the farm for shipment in 2020 are still available. Sentiment is these bids could slip as we continue through harvest and yield/quality reports roll in.

 

The chickpea market has not seen a lot of variation in pricing over the past couple of weeks. Both the US and Canada saw a decrease in acres which is supportive to pricing, but we have yet to see a larger change in the market. As per reports, we will have to see how the 2020 Russian crop turns out which is our competition into the Asian markets. However, with the acres being down in Canada and the US and as supplies are used up, we are expecting some price recovery to occur. Current chickpea pricing is at 27 cents/lb picked up on farm with most buyers wanting a max of 10% 7mms. We also have homes for feed chickpeas that have been moving at 12 cents/lb picked up.

 

Oats prices on a #2 milling oat delivered out into Manitoba show a range of $3.15/bu to $3.50/bu depending if you want to send the truck in October or May. Obviously there is still some decent freight costs that would need to be deducted off these values so the further east you are the better. We have some interesting opportunities for heavy feed oats still catching a FOB farm price north of $2.50, which would be as strong or stronger than milling prices in some areas. Standard feed oats bids hover in the low 2’s price range as the feed complex as a whole takes its standard punch to the throat at harvest time.

 

Soybeans saw some upside earlier this week when the charts reached an eight month high. However, that rally did not last long and this morning there is a weaker tone. New supply buying has taken a breather with the market expecting weather conditions to stabilize. That doesn’t mean there isn’t demand. The demand will likely stay fairly firm into the fall. We are seeing soybean prices up to $10.50/bu FOB while faba beans have backed off slightly to $7.00/bu also picked up. The market is establishing a range but there are some warnings that this rally may be overextended. If you have soybeans in the bin, now may be a good time to get some locked in.

 

This week we did get more yield reports on mustard and they are all over the map it appears. Yellow has been reported at less than 10 and some as high as 25 bu/ac. We have had some brown mustard harvested at 10 to reports of almost 30 bu/acre. If it’s not heat and moisture issues, its wind, lately the wind has been playing havoc with swaths. So this will be interesting to see how this pans out in the end with reduced acres being planted. Spot yellow is still trading at 40 cents/lb FOB farm for September/October movement. Brown sits at 30 cents for September movement still so far. Oriental bids for short term movement continue to be a challenge with only a few options on the table. Call your merchant about an offer on oriental as a possible way to market it.

 

Canola markets are currently well supported just prior to the bulk of canola being harvested. This is in large part due to canola futures following the escalating soybean futures. Market still waiting for early canola yield indications from canola country. With very few acres harvested yet, it is still anyone’s guess on average yield and if late season heat had a real yield impact. However, seems to be a consistently held belief that canola residual stocks from the 20/21 crop will shrink year over year. Local bids of $10.50/bu delivered are available. Call your Rayglen merchant to discuss.

 

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.


Rayglen Market Comments – August 26, 2020

Canaryseed is one of the commodities holding strength again this week. Consistent bids of 27-27.5c/lb picked up on the farm are the going rate for both old and new crop right now. If you’re sitting with some in the bins, there is still prompt movement options available and for those with product still in the field, you’re looking at Sept – Dec movement with potential to still obtain an act of God. If you’re looking to pad the pockets a bit more it never hurts to call your Rayglen agent to set up a firm target. This should prove to be an interesting year as ending stocks are lower than past years putting the pressure on a good harvest.

As of this morning, the canola market is trading around $492/MT on the November futures, a solid gain compared to a month ago when it was trading around $481.10 /MT. January futures offer some carry in value to $502/MT at time of writing. The rise in price right now could be related to yields that are expected to be slightly less than once thought. Reports suggest the heat wave in August contributed to canola crops not reaching full potential and pods not filling/ aborting seeds. We’ve also seen the soyoil market gaining strength which has been pushing canola values slightly higher.

Flax prices remain fairly strong for this time of year with prices up to $14.00/bu FOB. There are favorable signs of strong export demand for the upcoming year along with a small carry-over of supply. If the flax crop can make it through decent harvest weather, there will also be an improvement of quality from last year. Based on the USDA’s August seeded flax acres, we could see a decrease in reported acres. Still the biggest unknown is the Black Sea regions estimates of the Russian flax crop. Analysts imagine there to be reduced yields in the Kazakh area caused from drought. The flax prices are expected to hold as demand grows from China and Europe towards Canada.

Oats continues to trade soft again this week as the reported crop looks to be quite bountiful. As such, buyer pricing on old and new crop milling oats is hovering around that $2.50/bu range picked up on the farm, give or take a dime or so depending on location for 2020 movement. If you are able to hold out to the new year you will see a price perk around a quarter. If you have some feed oats weighing 43 pounds plus, the price is sitting around that $2.50 – $2.65 range. You heard right, feed oats, in many cases, are worth more than milling. An odd inverse not usually seen, which should be factored in when selling oats in the near term. 

This week there has not been much change in the pea market. Pricing is quiet as harvest is rolling along quite well in most areas. For the most part, pea yields have been pointing towards an ample increase in supply this year; this is also weighing on current prices. Yellow peas are trading at $6.00/bu picked up, green peas are $8.00/bu picked up and maple peas are also trading at $8.00/bu. To be able to avoid larger ending stocks for the 2020/2021 year, we are going to be counting on more peas being exported to China. China’s feed price has been increasing, which will hopefully support more Canadian peas being moved in, along with their continued demand from the fractionation market, as per reports. For right now, we can expect pea prices to stay quiet and any increases we may see will likely be later into the marketing year.

Harvest pressure seems to be affecting the barley market, as the weeks go on. Feed prices have been slipping every week now it seems, with current pricing trading at $3.15 – 3.75/bu. The stronger bids are being seen in South west Sask. Off the combine movement is harder to find, as many feed buyers are getting booked up for the coming months. There is a slight premium if you can hold on to the barley till early next year. Malt contracts have also been a bit harder to come by. We do have some pricing around $5.00/bu delivered for movement out to January – March.

Chickpea markets quite again this week as we wait for harvest to get underway. There has been adjustment on quality concerns or value and suspect we will remain in limbo until the first few acres are off. Feed chickpeas are still trading ranging from $0.10-$0.16/lb depending on down grading factors and there still seems to be a steady supply in the bins. No news on the Desi markets and trying to get a value out of the end user is similar to cracking the DaVinci code. Offers are the best route and values hover at the same levels as large Kabuli’s.

Chicago soybean futures continue on an upwards trend as they reach numbers not seen in a few months. Weather concerns in Arkansas as well as questions about the ability for late pods to fill across the Midwest is contributing to this price strength. Locally, soybeans are trading around $10/bu FOB farm for a #2 quality with no minimum protein levels required. On the faba bean side of the market, old crop bids have been minimal, but we have still been seeing new crop contracts come out around $8/bu FOB farm based on a #2 quality. There are discounted prices included in the contract for lower quality product.

Lentils prices are starting to feel a little bit of the typical harvest pressure as prices slide slightly since last week. Currently, reds lentils are trading at 24 cents FOB farm, while large greens sit in the 26-27 cent range for #2 quality, FOB farm. The early market outlook on lentils is that reds will see more downward pressure compared to greens. India has been heavily buying and we suspect the next big news that will affect this market is India’s decision on whether to increase tariffs. Taking advantage of a 24-cent market on another 5 to 10 bushel per acre may be a positive play this time next week if the Indian government does choose to increase the tariff. That being said, we may see prices on reds trail back either way due to amped up harvest pressure as more product becomes available. Barring any unforeseen circumstances, we do not expect lentil values to increase in the short term. 

Feed wheat prices have been weakening over the past few weeks and now, across Saskatchewan, most of our buyer bids have fallen below $5/bu FOB Farm. Comments around the province on wheat quality and quantity seem to be a bit of a mixed basket as always but overall decent with some issues of late heat causing weight & yield problems in some areas. The milling wheat bids around are no shining light either as many bids are sub $6/bu on a #1, 13.5 CWRS which is all in all pretty revolting. Once a bit of the harvest glut feeds through the Lethbridge feed market, we may see bids settle out a touch better in the winter as they often firm through the year.         

Reports are starting to slowly come in on mustard yields and at this point it is difficult to sum anything up as reports vary widely. It seems like showers absolutely controlled yields this year with drastic variances from producers only a few miles down the road from each other. It will be interesting to see how supply shakes out as mustard harvest gets fully underway. Spot yellow is still trading at 40 cents/lb FOB farm for August/September movement. Brown sits at 30 cents and oriental bids for short term movement continue to be a challenge with only a few options on the table. New crop mustard has basically finished for the year and spot prices now dictate the way.

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.


Rayglen Market Comments – August 19, 2020

As flax get closer to being harvested, new crop prices have met up with old crop. Bids this week are anywhere from $13.00/bu FOB to $14.00/bu delivered, with some flax buyers withdrawing their bids completely until new crop becomes available. Although the crop outlook is favorable, old crop supplies are thin which is keeping flax prices at a supported level. There are mixed reports from overseas which are also keeping flax prices at bay. Russia and Kazakh are reporting some drought which will affect yields and on the other hand, the EU is reporting an increase in flax acres. Prices are likely to remain sideways in the short term until harvest gets rolling and more solid reports from overseas start to emerge.

The barley market has really taken a turn to the downside with harvest in full swing in southern AB. Recent bids are in the $3.45 to $3.65/bu picked up on farm in eastern Sask and potentially up to $4.00/bu FOB farm in western Sask/ eastern AB. We are seeing some carry in value for those able to hold on to their product for a few months. Reports of large barley crops could keep grower bids suppressed this year, but only time will tell. Selling barley at a premium for new year movement may be a good play as supply should be plentiful throughout the year. If you are looking for the most current and up to date prices in your area, please call your Rayglen merchant.  

The oat harvest is underway and some early yield reports deserve recognition and mentioning; up to 140 bus per acre in certain locations. Now, as always, these kinds of reports aren’t across the board, but so far, we can infer that yields will be above average, and supply should be plentiful. That being said, bids have not moved much over the last week in either direction. Indications are still being quoted as $3.50 to $3.75/bu picked up for good quality #2 CW oat for relatively quick movement. The opportunity to sell at those levels may fade as supply becomes available and we are already seeing bids for deferred delivery lower.

Chickpea markets shed a sliver of light as we head into festival season in India. While the attendance to festivals may be low, it should translate to higher consumption of chickpea flour. In addition, the Indian government has also decided that it will continue its distribution of 1 kg of chickpeas to almost 190 million families in need till November free of cost. It is believed that India is sitting on stock of over 2 mil tonnes, but the free food program will likely eat up half of that…. pun intended.  New crop and old crop values have come together for large Kabuli’s hovering around $0.26/lb FOB farm. Smaller calibre chickpeas are also back on the radar with the same values as larger. Desi chickpeas are still quiet and are trading at a lower value to Kabulis with no firm price in hand. If you are looking to market Desi’s, please call your broker and prepare samples for shipping.

Wheat markets remains mute this week as we roll into harvest. There is chatter of what percentage of this year’s production will make feed. An average year can produce 10-11% of feed quality, but about half of the time we will see a better-quality production with only 5-6% feed. This year could be one of those years where milling quality is a higher yield which would explain the stall for milling wheat.  CWRS 13.5% pro bids range from $5.50-$6.00/bu off the farm and 12.5% pro at $5.00-$5.35/bu. Feed wheat bids range from $5.71/bu in Lethbridge to $4.50/bu FOB farm Western Canada. All of this is location dependent and based on nearby movement (Sept-Dec). We are still in question period though and as we get more information on harvest; these values could shift.

Peas are being harvested in quite a few areas and yields to date haven’t been disappointing. This information is unlikely to provide any support to the already quiet market. Bids have been softening over the past month and there doesn’t seem to be any short-term upside to the pea market. Yellow peas are trading at $6.00/bu, greens up to $8.00/bu and maple peas are also seeing $8.00/bu, all picked up on farm. As per reports, India has seen an increase in their desi chickpea prices as supply has declined. However, this increase is still below their minimum support price which won’t encourage any import restrictions to be removed, yet. Therefore, if we do see any support to the pea market it likely won’t be till later into the marketing year.

Canola futures continue their steady climb up this week as November futures are posted at $488.60/MT today, compared to $485/MT at the same time last week. There is some carry in the futures market with January at $495.5/MT and March at $501/MT. As has been the case in the past, support for canola pricing is coming from strength in soybean oil futures. With canola futures on the upswing, now may be a good time to put out some firm targets and catch the rising market.

Soybean prices are still solid for the time being with bids at $10/bu in many areas of the province as a picked up on farm price. Our low Loonie has kept our price mostly in the double digits through a particularly weak period for soybeans as issues between China and US persist. Most of the buyers that we deal with on soybeans do not have any protein requirements and generally there are little to no issues on grading. Faba bean bids are pretty quiet right now for old crop but if you have some product to move let your merchant know and we can track down some pricing. Fall bids on #1 fabas are around $8.00/bu range on select varieties with a discount schedule on lower grades.

Lentil harvest seems to be well underway throughout the province. Early yield indications have been a wide range from disappointing to well above average. Red lentils are trading between 24-25 cents delivered, with some companies offering prompt movement. Large green lentils are sitting between 29-30 cents for a number 1 and 27-28 cents on a number 2. With similar demand we will likely see these prices fall as farmers get further along with harvest and more supply becomes available.

Canaryseed remains stable again this week with a few major players seeking product. Highest price being offered that we’ve seen is 27 cents FOB farm for immediate movement for those with product in the bin but offers may capture slightly better. If you’re looking for a new crop value with deferred delivery, say Sep-Dec, 26 cents FOB farm should be attainable. Canaryseed crops looks decent at this point in time, but if these high temperatures stick around much longer, it may lower yields as seeds in top of the head may not fully develop. Canary should have another good trading year as ending stocks will be lower than the last few years.

Stable unchanged pricing from buyers continues this week in the mustard market. We have heard the earliest reports on yields just starting in southern Alberta and southwest Saskatchewan. We will see how this develops and we will get a better idea as harvest picks up. Spot yellow is trading at 40 cents/lb FOB farm for August/September movement. Brown sits at 31 cents and oriental bids for short term continue to be a challenge with few options on the table. New crop yellow mustard ranges from 39-40 cents, new crop brown from 30-32 cents and new crop oriental 26-28 cents on forge. This may be the last week for new crop pricing as harvest starts.  Call your merchant for details.

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.


Rayglen Market Comments – August 12, 2020

Chickpea markets are very quiet as of late. Current bids are in the 25 cents/lb range for a #2 product with across the board pricing. Obviously, this price is not bringing much (or any) product to the forefront as growers don’t get much inspiration at these levels. For most buyers that’s ok as the overseas market is very slow, and buyers are not looking to get much (if any) product on the books. The crop out in the field is a bit of a conundrum as issues with disease are reported to be pretty widespread and the jury is still out as to what tonnage and quality we will see from the infected acres. Reports suggest it may affect 20% of seeded acres. Ultimately the most important factor on our prices is that the world demand for chickpeas is strong and that we are still waiting to see how things unfold in India, Mexico and other areas.

Flax markets are definitely quieter than they were even a month ago. With new crop around the corner and analysts pegging the Saskatchewan crop 76% good or excellent, we are seeing prices around $14.00/bu delivered. The heat in the last couple of weeks may be a factor but at time of writing, analysts are giving the flax crop positive ratings. North American acreage is smaller and with less carry-over, prices should remain firm. The unknown is the European and Black Sea region crop. There have been some reports of drought on Russian and Kazakh flax which would impact yields. If yields are better than expected overseas, we could see the flax prices push down. As harvest evolves, prices will start to firm up.

The wheat markets have softened over the last couple of weeks. There is enough supply along with the large corn stocks, that buyers are not chasing the market. The 2020/21 crop year will be about capturing small rallies. This crop year will be about looking at the price per acre versus the price per bushel. The feed wheat market has also reflected the drop in prices. Prices vary based on location, but indication in the $4.00-$4.50/bu range picked up. Milling durum prices have also been stagnant with sideways pricing in the $7.50-$8.00/bu range.

Producers have begun harvesting and pea crops with strong yields look to be the case thus far. Even though acres were slightly down from last year we are expecting a larger production, with green peas seeing a big increase in tonnage. As per reports, it is being estimated that yellows will be up 9% from last year and green peas up 37%. If this ends up being the case, we could expect to see more downside in the green pea market. Any upside in pricing we may see this year will likely be gradual as well. It isn’t looking like we will be seeing many exports into India this year, so we will be more dependent on moving peas into China. Current pricing has yellow peas at $6.00 – 6.50/bu, with maples and green peas at $8.00 /bu range.

Canola futures are up slightly today with November posting $485/MT and January offering a $6/MT premium at time of writing. On farm producer bids for nearby delivery are around $9.50/bu pending location and freight costs. Strength seen today is due to a rally in soyoil and canola’s ability to ride coattails. Recently we’ve seen some stronger bids for Jan-Mar delivery, so if you’re interested in a new year delivery time frame, give the office a call. Harvest is underway in many areas and once we know how this year’s production shakes out, it should provide a good road map for the general tone of canola this year. 

The lentil market is sitting relatively flat this week as we start to hear of some lentils coming off in the southern areas of the prairies. While early reports on yields make it sound like a big crop is coming, there remains some concerns on later seeded crops having too much heat near the end to properly fill in. As far as pricing goes, small red lentils are hovering between 24-25 cents/lb FOB farm for #2 quality, large greens are at 28 cents/lb FOB farm on a #2, and small greens are also between 24-25 cents/lb FOB farm on a #1 quality. We encourage growers with contracts to get pictures and samples sent in quickly to get the ball rolling on movement.

Canary seed markets appear to be bucking the usual trend of weakness in pricing around this time of the year, with bids staying fairly sideways as we get closer to the crop getting put into the bins. Sask Ag’s final crop ratings show a solid improvement in canary seed crops across the province. Good or excellent ratings jumped 7% to a final number of 67%. That being said, acres did not go up as much as many people expected and on farm stocks have been depleted from the strong pricing of the last year so growers should expect a bit of strength come October/November. As for right now, we’re still seeing bids of 27 cents/lb picked up promptly for product in the bin, while new crop is at 26 cents/lb picked up between Sept/Dec with an AOG.

Optimism over ongoing trade negotiations with China helped overcome bumper yield projections expected from USDA. Private exporters reported a 4.8-million-bushel soybean export sale to China yesterday morning. It marked the fifth trading day in a row that China purchased 2020/21 U.S. soybeans. Soybean bids continue to hover between $9.50-$10.00/bu picked up location dependent. Faba bean demand for export quality is currently quite low with very little price differentiation between feed and #2 quality. Australian faba crop prospects continue to increase which is pushing prices down and also pushing Canadian fabas to the back of the line. Bids are in the range of $6/bu picked up in most locations. In general, across Western Canada, dry bean conditions would suggest above-average dry bean yields. Concerns about the US dry bean crop have moderated from some the earlier concerns that were being discussed in eastern part of the growing region. If seeded acres and crop intentions come to fruition, one can expect some price pressure on local cash bids.

Barley prices have really fallen back over the last week as new crop is already coming off in Alberta. Old crop Sask prices are ranging in that $3.40-$3.75/bu picked up on the farm and you may be able to still get movement here for August depending on the quantity. New crop prices are also weak as we’ve seen figures at $3.50 – $4.30/bu picked up on the farm depending on location with the latter being Alberta pricing. Feedlots are being shown an absurd amount of grain as it’s coming off hot and heavy in Alberta.

The oat market has remained pretty quiet here again this week. You can still find bids on old crop around that $3.25-$3.50/bu FOB farm on #2CW. There hasn’t been any change in the new crop market as buyers are still looking at $3.50 – $3.75/bu delivered in with movement being pushed out into the new year. If you are looking for some firm pricing call your Rayglen agent. There doesn’t seem to be a whole lot of feed oats around, but pricing is still hovering between $2.50 – $3.00 picked up on farm.

Mustard remains stuck in a holding pattern price wise. It’s a bit early yet for mustard harvest reports, so we anxiously await some yield information. Buyers report muted demand still, but there is some quick movement possible. Spot yellow is trading at 40 FOB for August/September movement. Brown sits at 31 cents. Moving oriental, short term is a challenge right now with little options on the table. New crop yellow mustard ranges from 39-40 cents, new crop brown from 30-32 cents and new crop oriental 26-28 cents on forge.  The price depends on the movement timeline but are picked up in the yard and still have act of God at this late date.  Call your merchant for details.

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.

 


Rayglen Market Comments – August 5, 2020

Reports coming out of Saskatchewan suggest lentil yields are a little softer due to disease in central and some southern regions. The lentil crop has dropped below 70% rating good to excellent. This hot dry weather has really started to “turn” things with farmers not receiving the “fill” that was hoped for. On a pricing front, we are starting to reach parity as new crop inches closer to the bin. Large green lentils are sitting at 27-28 cents/lb on a #2 for both old and new crop. Medium green lentils are trading at 20-21.5 cents/lb, with small green lentils fetching 24-25 cents/lb and reds fluttering around 24-25 cents/lb on new and old crop.

Feed barley prices have pulled back some this week and are hovering around $3.80 – $4.30/bu picked up on farm. The latter price for those closer and into Alberta. As we start to creep closer to new crop product coming off you may see prices pull back some more as supply replenishes. Now may be a good time to dump the remainder of last year’s crop and make way for new crop. On that note, if you are looking to lock in some new crop give your Rayglen agent a call as buyers are willing to bid.

The oat market has not really done anything this week in terms of price movement. Bids range from $3.50 to $3.75/bu picked up for good quality #2CW’s. New crop oats are still roughly the same as last week as well and have been trading around $3.50 to $3.75/bu delivered depending on movement period. We also have some buyers looking for glyphosate free oats, which is becoming more of a common practice these days across many markets. Be sure you’re aware of any pre harvest desiccant restrictions so you don’t limit your marketing ability.

The flax crops around the province are looking really good thus far. The overall general feeling on flax remains very upbeat and positive. There is potential for above average yield if mother nature cooperates.  The price on new crop has been trading around $13.00 to $13.50 FOB for brown varieties and yellow is bid around the same value. It is expected that the price on flax should not dip to much or at all due to tightened carryout stock. For most up to date prices in your area or to throw out a firm target, please call your Rayglen merchant.

As we write this morning, canola futures start their day down with on farm bids fairly stagnant in the range of $10.30 to $10.00/bu pending location. With harvest getting ever so closer, the canola crop generally is in good shape, but there are a few areas that have gotten a substantial amount (or lack) of rain that are a bit concerning. Cash bids could push a touch higher in the long term, but short term we expect things to remain fairly stable. Keep an eye on the Canadian dollar as rises and falls usually sway the market in the opposite direction.

The pea crops in Saskatchewan are doing quite well and are rated at 88% good to excellent. This has the potential for yields to be above average this year, however, the crop is not yet in the bin and we look to the weather to continue to cooperate. Looking overseas, there was talk that the Ukraine pea crop was going to be large which would add to the competition into Europe, but the drought has significantly affected their yields. On to prices, old crop has scaled back to new crop levels. Yellow peas are at $6 – 6.50/bu FOB, green peas are $8.50/bu and maple peas are $8 – 8.50/bu. Looking to the new marketing year, any price upside will likely be small if yields end up coming off as high as predicted. Any price recovery would be regarding yellow peas, green peas may not be so lucky.

Canary seed pricing has remained stable these past couple of weeks. Old crop and new crop are both trading at 26-27 cents FOB. As per reports, we have seen an acreage increase this year, but yield estimates are a bit harder to judge as of right now. What could affect the canary seed pricing for the better is that US millet has seen a spike in pricing. Therefore, unless our yields come up substantially higher, we could expect to see some price recovery in the canary seed market.

Spring wheat supply is looking to rise this year in Canada and the US as the crops are looking quite well. Reviewing market prices, wheat had fallen back earlier this week and the markets saw some price recovery this morning. In overseas news, it is looking like China will be importing more wheat this year than it has in the past 7 years. Finally, after the recent explosion in Beirut, reports suggest one of the main silos containing wheat has been destroyed. Their wheat reserves are now lacking, and they will have to replenish to get back up to a comfortable 3 months’ supply on hand. For pricing, hard red spring wheat is around $6.00/bu, milling durum is $7.50 – 8.00/bu and feed wheat/durum is trading at $5.00/bu.

Soybean futures claw back some losses today after early week declines across the whole soy complex. Looking to our southern neighbours, one report predicts US yields to be around 54 bu/ac and after a lower than assumed seeded acreage number, these yields should leave the states with a comfortable supply. This likely doesn’t offer too much upside to the commodity price, but time will tell as the crop still needs to hit the bin. Local Canadian bids see little change this week with most buyers indicating $10/bu range FOB farm, give or take pending freight costs. For a firm bid in your yard on soybeans or any other dry bean on your farm, please call the office.

Chickpea markets continue flat as we move towards harvest. We have seen disease firsthand in some area, as our merchants return from crop inspections. We will see how this plays out in samples and yields. Old crop large kabuli bids hover around $0.26/lb off the farm and new crop coming in at the same value. With continued concern around growing conditions, is it possible we will see higher prices? Stay tuned on this front as reports start to roll in.  

Mustard prices are solid this week. Not a lot of change on this front. Demand has not been stellar from buyers this week with quick movement, but prices remain strong based on future demand and the planted acre situation here in the province. New crop yellow mustard ranges from 39-40 cents, new crop brown from 30-32 cents and new crop oriental 26-28 cents on forge.  The price depends on the movement, but are picked up in the yard and still have act of God.  Call you merchant for details.

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.

 


Rayglen Market Comments – July 29, 2020

Its crop inspection week(s) here at Rayglen so the office is pretty sparse on staff. Comments will be pretty short and sweet this week.

Soybean prices have been lower due to low demand and good crop conditions in US. Most of the bids we have seen lately have been closer to $9/bu FOB farm, maybe a touch better in the right freight area. No fall pricing to post as buyers waiting to see how things unfold over next few months. If you are looking for prices on faba beans for fall we have a buyer looking for some firm grower targets; north of $8/bu sounds to be workable on the preferred varieties.

Feed wheat markets are weaker in lots of areas of the province lately as $5.00/bu becomes much harder to track down from most buyers. If you are to the west we can still find bids on the right side of $5 picked up on farm but end users are filling and focus turns to new crop which tends to diminish prices, you know, the whole supply vs demand dance. Milling wheat prices just scratch above $6 bucks a bushel delivered to plant for a #1, 13.5px CWRS which is obviously, not great. 

Mustard prices are holding strong again this week. New crop yellow mustard ranges from 39-40 cents, new crop brown from 30-32 cents and new crop oriental 26-28 cents on forge.  The price depends on the movement, but are picked up and still have act of God.  There is also room in August to move out some old crop. While the 2020/21 crop year may have some tighter supplies, analysts are reporting that this won’t impact price the same as it has in previous years. The Black Sea region supplies will offset the smaller Canadian crop.

There is limited room to move old crop oats, but if there are some in the bins, we are seeing prices range from $3.50-$3.75/bu picked up. New crop is also still holding with prices ranging from $3.50-$3.75/bu delivered depending on movement. Reminder that some buyers, and the list grows, are only buying glyphosate free oats.  If you have any feed oats in the bins, we have opportunities as well.

Feed barley prices have stayed strong this week again. Old crop barley that is heavy and dry is trading between $4.00 – $4.50/bu FOB Farm depending on location.  New crop prices are $3.50 -$4.00/bu. Much of the barley is heading west into Alberta so, pricing is best the closer you’re located to southern Alberta.  We always have bids at discounted prices for any off-spec barley as well so be sure to let us know what’s in your bins.

Chickpea markets hold fast as we move through the final stretch of the growing season. Reports of white mold and root rot are prevalent but this has no reflected on the values on the market. Old crop large kabuli bids hover around $0.26/lb off the farm and new crop coming in at the same value. With continued concern around growing conditions it would not be surprising to see a bump in these values sooner rather than later as previously expected.

Flax crops are still flowering but looking really good. Quality is not a concern as of yet despite talk for most special crops being under disease pressure. New crop bids are around $13.00/bu FOB for Brown and Yellow is at par. Old Crop can still get a bit of a premium depending on quality and movement. Old crop is more of an opportunistic scenario where buyers are coming in with a short to fill and the need is immediate. Best way to capture that market is setting targets. Call your broker to discuss options and opportunities.

As we head into the upcoming harvest the old crop peas markets have gone quiet. Old crop green peas are trading between$8.50 and $9.00/bu picked up on farm whilst old crop yellows are at $6.00 to $6.50. Maples bids, if you can find one, are between $8.50 and $8.75 delivered to plant. Early reports suggest that pea crops will be average to above yield. Most buyers will likely not back to the market until combines hit the field.

Lentil markets are staying relatively strong for this time of year. Old cop reds are still trading at 28 cents/lb delivered with new crop trading between 24-25 cents. Large green lentils are still sitting at 28.5 cents picked up on farm for a #2 quality. New crop pricing on large greens seems to be harder to find right now which, in part, could be due to India this week suggesting they may have a big pigeon pea crop.  Lots of pigeon peas limits India’s need for large green lentils. Medium green lentils have lost a cent or new and old crop bids and small greens still have some interest at 28 cents on a #1 FOB farm.  

Canola disappearance is occurring at faster rate than earlier anticipated. Whether this was whole seed exported through developing trading channels or finished product through Western Canadian crush facilities, the result is a carryout number that is less burdensome than originally forecasted. If disappearance holds pace into new crop, we end up with carryout figures that could conceivable be well below the five-year average of 13%. Local spot bids for canola are near $10.90/bu delivered in some locations. New crop bids are also strong hovering around $10.50 delivered. We continue to have premium picked on farms bids for non-GMO canola. Contact your Rayglen merchant for more details.

Credible canary seed yield forecasts seem to remain elusive and firm carryout numbers are equally as vague. With that considered, sometimes demand and current bid are as good an indication as to what the market believes the relative abundance will be. Some have attempted to quantify these statistics and have assembled supply and disposition tables with their assumptions resulting in lower carry outs than last year. This would be supportive for bids and in large part that is what the market is currently reflecting. Local spot bids are 27-28 cents/lb picked up location dependent and new crop bids are in the range of 25 cents/lb picked up.

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.


Rayglen Market Comments – July 22, 2020

Flax is looking good to excellent in Saskatchewan according to the latest reports from analysts anticipate good odds of above average yields for 2020. While the crop is not in the bin yet, it has given some breathing room for exporters. Old crop flax prices are starting to merge with new crop pricing and the highs we saw a couple of weeks ago are down slightly. The flax outlook in the key areas of Kazakhstan are reporting dry conditions with yield potential reduced. On the other hand, seeding acres are up 15% in those same areas, so that will offset lower yields somewhat. This could provide more support for Canadian flax exports. There is a small window to move old crop flax out before buyers wait for the new crop harvest to hit the bins, so consider making some final sales.

Oat prices remain strong again this week with old crop bids for July / August still hovering around $4.65/bu delivered to some locations. New crop ranges anywhere from $3.50-$3.70/bu delivered depending on the time frame of delivery. Feed oats have some movement as well indicating $2.50/bu FOB farm as long as they are heavy and dry. We also have some buyers only looking for glyphosate free oats now and after harvest, something to keep in mind to expand selling options. If you have a target in mind, call our office and we can get that set up for you.

The November futures price on canola is down a little bit this morning at time of writing, although grower bids seem to be stable. Product has been trading around $10.50/bu delivered plant in the Saskatoon area with other varying bids throughout the province. The canola-rape oil stocks are getting tight in China, which could provide some support down the line. China’s rape oil prices have gained nearly a third since May 27th. The China/Canada rocky relationship is definitely not helping the situation, but continued purchase commitments of US soybeans from China should provide underling support for canola.

The pea market remains quiet as we inch closer to harvest and is expected to continue this way till new crop comes around. Right now, the pea acres seem to be doing well, with a few disease issues popping up due to excessive moisture. This next week is forecasted to bring some heat which should help with the pulses. Pea prices aren’t expected to fluctuate a bunch after harvest, unless we have yield issues pop up. Even if yield is affected, a price bump could be slow to arise as per reports. Green pea acres are up which will keep pricing at bay, while yellows could see a price recovery if China stays in the market. Current pricing on yellows is $6.00 – 6.50/bu FOB and new crop at $6.50 – 7.00/bu and spot green peas are $9.00/bu FOB with new crop at $8.50/bu. Maple peas are $8.00/bu FOB and $8.50/bu FOB on new crop. Into this week we have seen more buyers state glyphosate free is the preference, so growers need to be aware on their market restrictions.

Wheat futures were up across the board this morning. However, wheat acres in Canada and the US seem to be doing well overall, which could affect pricing from pushing higher. Bids on higher protein (13.5%) HRS wheat see $6.00/bu but with delivery dates pushed out further into the year. We do have a buyer looking for low protein wheat, so if you have some in the bin that isn’t quite feed, we may have some other options. Feed wheat/durum is trading at $4.75 – 5.50/bu FOB and the durum market also had a few $8.00/bu new crop trades in the South East based on a #1 US quality.

The chickpea market is very quiet right now. Spot prices are very hard to come by, but we have a few buyers kicking around with some bids in the mid 20’s with across the board pricing. On the other hand, some buyers are showing much lower prices. We still have a buyer or two posting new crop values in the high twenties delivered to plant with an act of God, but we don’t have any indication how deep that business is so treat as such. Reports again this year, like last, of an emerging plant health issue showing up in chickpeas in southern Saskatchewan as well as Montana & North Dakota raise concerns with this crop and bring questions about the future on growing them here. As further information on this malady comes in, we will share it but we have talked to multiple producers who have already dropped chickpeas as an option last year due to this problem so this will likely compound that response.

Old crop canary seed pricing has dipped down as new crop and old start to converge. Old crop bids are currently sitting at 27 – 27.5 cents/lb delivered in. New crop canary continues to trade at 26 cents/lb picked up on the farm for Sept – Dec with an Act of God. The crop conditions on canary seed have dipped a bit and are pegged at around 60% rating good to excellent. Hopefully the weather will co-operate and bump these numbers up.

Soybean futures are in a tug-o-war with optimism over favorable crop development and continued Chinese demand. Tensions between the U.S. and China could spoil demand prospects. That said China continues to make purchase commitments for U.S. origin soybeans. Local soybean bids continue to hover around $9.50-$10.00/bu picked up depending on location. Still good opportunities to contract new crop faba bids at $8.00/bu for #2 export quality. Dry bean demand still exists, and buyers will be interested in purchasing any new crop contract overages.  

Feed barley prices are still strong for movement in July/Aug. They then start to drop off to slightly lower new crop values so now is the time to get the last bit in the bin sold before the prices converge. Old crop barley that is heavy and dry is trading between $4.00-$4.40/bu FOB farm depending on location, while new crop ranges between $3.50-$4.00/bu FOB farm. For both prices, the closer to southern Alberta you get, the stronger the pricing will be. We have also have bids for any off spec feed barley, so be sure to call in for a price in your area.

With the recent rain we are heating some reports that lentil crop conditions are deteriorating due to disease. Talking with farmers this week most have done their first pass of fungicide and some are on their second. News of these condition has not affected market price as of yet. Red lentil old crop pricing continues to converge with new crop pricing. Large green lentils remain relatively strong on old crop pricing with #2’s trading between 28-29 picked up on farm. New crop large green pricing is a little hard to find but seems to be still sitting around 28/26 for a number #1/#2 priced contract. Predictions are that red lentil supply should be average, but the green lentils supply may remain tight. The Hindu Business Line reported that the Indian government has announced an increase in their MSP (minimum support price) for lentils for the upcoming kharif crop. The increase is said to be a gain of 3.48%. They are hoping to encourage the seeding of more pulse therefore reducing their need to import. Increase acres on paper is great concept but the crop is a long way from the bin. So, until the crop is in the ground and harvested it is anyone’s guess on what kind of supply they will have this winter.

This past week has been fairly stable on mustard prices, with the low acreage number seeming to still provide support. The prospect of very good crops and yields hasn’t dampened prices due to the surprise seeded acreage report showing the huge reduction. Again, the story remains the same; slow export pace along with some skepticism in the seeded acreage report. This is why we see values creeping up a little but not going much higher at this juncture. Yellow mustard remains at 40 cents for old and new crop. Brown is solid at 32 for new crop and 30 to 32 for spot pricing, depending on movement. Oriental Forge sits at 28 for new crop and 26 to 27 cents for old crop might trade. Oriental Cutlass sits at 27 for new crop and 25 for old crop possibly. Moving old crop oriental is a bit of a challenge right now. Call your merchant for details.   

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.


Rayglen Market Comments – July 15, 2020

Milling quality flax prices are still holding but some buyers are starting to make that transition from old to new crop pricing. The window is also getting smaller for old crop to move out before buyers just put on a hold and wait for the new crop to come off. Canadian supplies are pegged to remain tight, but the demand is what is shifting. Canadian seeded flax acres are more concentrated here in Saskatchewan with a 5% increase. Alberta acres are down by 15% while Manitoba’s seeded flax acres are even lower by 48%. The larger than expected US acres will restrict some imports. The wild card will be the Black Sea region and the size of their crop.

The oat market remains strong with many companies paying upwards of $4.25 to $4.50/bu delivered in. If you are looking for a price FOB farm or would like to put in a target, please call the office. The feed oat market also is very consistent, and product has been trading between $2.50 to $3.00/bu FOB the farm for dry/heavy oats. A friendly reminder that some buyers have moved to only taking glyphosate free oats and that these sorts of markets seem to be popping up more often. Something to keep in mind this harvest season.

Pea crops are looking decent at this time of the year, however concerns about disease are starting to arise. These wet conditions could start to cause issues as some areas are already reporting yellowing in pulse crops. Right now, pea bids are quiet, however come harvest we could see some changes. Green pea acres are up and if a decent crop comes off, prices we could see prices soften a bit. On the other hand, yellow pea carryout supply and planted acreage is down, therefore we could see slight price recovery after harvest. Green peas are trading at $9.00/bu and new crop at $8.50/bu FOB. Yellow peas are $6.50/bu for old crop and $7.00/bu FOB on new crop. Maple peas have remained quiet with old crop at $8.00/bu and new crop at $9.00/bu FOB.

The canola crop across the prairies looks to be in relatively good shape although some areas are showing concern over excess moisture. Still, it is reported that about 72% of the crop is in good to excellent shape. November and January futures are down this morning as we write. Along with a rise in the Canadian dollar, weaker vegoil complex seems to be the culprit for these softening markets. Producer delivered plant bids remain relatively unchanged with the highs around $10.50/bu in the northwest and down to $10.15/bu in the southwest part of the province. These values translate back to roughly $9.75/bu range FOB farm and higher across Saskatchewan.

Chickpea markets are status quo despite buzz of root rot and issues in applications of fungicide. That’s not to say that it won’t change, but right now there does not seem to be a huge concern over quality for the current crop with the belief that the bins are full of good quality. Old crop values for #2 Kabulis have slipped to $0.25-0.26/lb FOB farm and new crop slightly below that with an AOG. Feed chickpeas are starting to slow on movement as processors fill up, but bids remain the same @ $0.10-$0.12/lb FOB farm.

Low StatCan seeded acres on mustard have provided a bit more fodder to the current mustard spot price with the yellow varieties creeping back up to 40 cents/lb for summer movement. We have heard some oriental interest in the mid-twenties plus range and brown prices have saw some interest north of 30 cents on the right grower target. The seeded acreage report showed drastic reduction in the oriental and brown mustard acres and a smaller reduction in yellow. Our carryout numbers this year are tight but not as tight as they could be as our exports are over 10% behind the normal pace; so the cupboards are not as bade as they could/should be.  This slow export pace, along with some skepticism in the seeded acreage report, is why we see values creeping up a little but not going wild at this juncture. The crop conditions for mustard are reported to be very good, but mustard does tend to start strong and creep lower as the hot and dry season comes along.

Canary seed prices remain stable for new crop at 26 cents for fall delivery with an Act of God. Old crop has been trading at 28 cents but that is getting hard to find especially for quick movement. The industry feels that 20/21 supply is going to remain tight as the acreage numbers are modest. If trade numbers remain similar to 19/20 numbers, future canary prices should remain similar to this past year. 

Old crop red lentil prices seem to have lost a cent or two pricing over the last week. This is normal as we near the upcoming harvest. If grain cannot be delivered before the end of July, then most companies will wait for the new crop to come off and start taking delivery of their precontracted product. Even though old crop prices are slipping new crop prices remain around the 25-26 cent mark for September to December delivery. Large green lentils remain strong for old and new crop. Old crop #2’s are still trading at 29-30 cents, and new crop values average 29 cents for #1 and 28 cents for a #2. We also had a buyer come to us this week looking for a few loads of French greens. If you still have some in the bin give us call to find out more information.

Feed barley prices are hanging on late in the crop year with bids not changing much over the past few weeks. Heavy and dry feed barley will fetch an attractive $4.00-$4.40/bushel FOB farm depending on your location for July/August movement. Bids look strongest the further west you are in Saskatchewan. We always have bids at discounted prices for any off-spec barley as well so be sure to let us know what’s in your bins. New crop feed barley bids have shown up and are as high as $4.00/bushel FOB farm in western Saskatchewan.

Weather and crop ratings continue to underpin supply pressure, recently sending futures prices higher. China continues to firm up purchases as the country expands its poultry and swine herds. Local soybean bids continue to hover around $9.50-$10.00/bu picked up depending on location. Still good opportunities to contract new crop faba bids at $8.00/bu for #2 export quality. The acreage increase in dry beans is old news. Dry bean production will still be a question mark as we move through summer and into harvest. If seeded acres and crop intentions come to fruition, one can expect some pressure on local cash bids.

From a US and a commodity futures perspective, concerns about looming production cuts following last week’s La Niña weather outlook has offered modest support to the wheat complex. Across the Western Prairies wheat production volume per acre is anticipated to be up due to favorable weather patterns. Quality becomes the question now, with regard to grade and protein levels. Old crop milling wheat #2-13.5 hovering near $6.50 delivered. Feed wheat bids are ranging from $5.00-$5.50 picked up location dependent.

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.


Next Page »