The feed barley market has been fairly consistent these past few weeks, trading around $3.85 -$4.30/bu FOB depending on farm location. News of a major meat processing plant being closed in Alberta due to Covid-19 has popped up. The full affect of the closure is yet to be determined, but this could have some negative impact on feed values. If you are sitting on feed barley, now may not be a bad time to make a hedge and price some out. For the most part, bids are quoted for summertime movement, but those who are on primary weights year-round, may find some quick movement options.
The pea market has had some excitement in the past couple of days. Old crop prices have risen to $13.00/bu FOB on green peas and $7-7.50/bu FOB on yellows. The strength in this market is likely to push seeded acres slightly higher. As per reports, we are expecting around a 3% increase in pea acres this year. With strong old crop pricing we’ve seen a bit of product moving into the market. This is going to put our 2019/2020 stocks quite low, therefore, an increase in 2020/2021 pea plantings may not adversely affect the market. Current new crop bids are around $9.00/bu FOB on greens with an Act of God and $10.00/bu FOB on a deferred delivery contract. Yellow peas have seen $7.00/bu FOB with an Act of God. The maple pea market is also a bit brighter now that China seems to be recovering and back in the market. Old crop and new crop prices are trading at $9.00/bu FOB.
Lentil prices remain volatile and fluid again this week. Bids are up from where they were several weeks ago due to Covid-related disruptions in the market. New crop prices have also jumped which means more lentil acres likely to go in the ground. If you are seeding lentils and have not yet priced out any for new crop, this might be a good time to do so. There will come a point when the nervous buying will stop. Once buyers obtain some coverage, the upward rally on prices will come to a halt. With higher prices over the last couple of weeks, carry-over stocks are starting to tighten, as increased farmer selling takes place. Analysts figure there will be more support for green prices versus reds due to the expected increase in red lentil acres. Call us for up to date prices on lentils as bids are volatile.
Movement on canaryseed to Thunder Bay for export to Europe didn’t affect the canary pricing this past week as it maintains around that 28c/lb FOB farm. This small window that was hoping to lead to a price perk didn’t amalgamate, indicating that there may still be some pockets of unreported farm stocks lurking around; though not to the degree we saw a couple months ago. Supplies are still tight just not as tight as maybe once perceived. There may still be an opportunity later on for a bump in price as buyers may need to cover a short as we approach new crop, but that spike will be just that, here and then gone. The expectation on new crop moving forward suggests that we will see an increase in acres and right now bids are sitting at that 24c/lb FOB farm with an act of God. A little bit of a price pick up from last week, which may be indicate buyers are looking for a bit more coverage moving through to 2021.
Chickpea markets are seeing higher than average exports out of competing country Russia to common buyers Turkey and Pakistan. This is part in parcel why the Canadian market struggles to find strength while the rest of the special crops markets see gain in some respect. Old crop large kabuli chickpea bids are $0.24-$0.26/lb FOB farm but we are seeing offers trade slightly higher. New crop steady at $0.23-$0.24/lb with an AOG. Feed chickpea still seeing $0.10/lb FOB farm trades. It should be noted with all the red lentil activity it is believed that chickpea acres will be replaced with reds and could create a bit of disturbance in the long-term market. Keep an eye on the intended acres report from StatsCan to be an indicator.
Oats are trading sideways once again this week as pricing is stalling out at roughly $3/bu FOB farm on milling quality. If you run the Sask/Manitoba boarder expect that to pull up a bit as $4/bu delivered into Manitoba seems to be the going rate. Feed oats continue to trade in that mid $2.50 ish range butting up to $3/bu FOB farm for dry heavy product moving east. On suspect product, pencil in $2.50/bu and south for FOB farm pricing. With Spring finally feeling like it’s here, talk to your merchant if secondary roads are applicable to you as freight can get a little dicey with road bans and closures. Looking ahead, Canada will need a 4+ MMT oat crop to full fill supply and demand needs with the ‘possibility’ of some measured increases down the road due to the uncertainty of the current global economy. After all is said and done, it’s projected that we will be left with a slight up tic from last year’s ending stocks and as we inch closer to seeding and the forecasted expectation of increased oat acres, there seems to be an inept ability to find profitable new crop pricing.
Feed wheat bids remain stable and strong this week at $5.00-$5.40/bu picked up at the farm for summertime movement. Some opportunities exist for quicker movement for any growers able to load primary weights over the May/June months. These prices are based on wheat that is 58 lbs and under 14.5% moisture, although we have options at slightly discounted prices for product not falling into those ranges. Pricing is best the further west you’re located, with most product heading into feedlot alley. Milling wheat markets have taken a hit lately, due in part to Russian stocks hitting the market and the recent downswing in oil markets dragging futures down across the board. After seeing a quick jump up in durum prices, they have settled in and are trading around $8/bu delivered into plants around the province.
Canola prices are up a little today after a solid couple weeks trending mostly down. The month of April has pushed May futures from $470/MT to $453 today. This has not been a steep fall but a steady meticulous slide over the course of the month. From this slide, one can draw a pretty straight line back to soybeans and other oils in the related complex. All of the associated markets have bounced back a bit today, which one hopes is a bit of a recovery in oils, but that is a big world issue that we won’t tackle here. In the meantime, as it relates to prices on your farm, luckily supply numbers seem to have tightened up a bit and we are seeing better basis levels from many buyers. Bids on the farm for summer don’t look as bad as 2 weeks of lower futures prices would suggest. Some basis levels have changed from a negative 50 to a negative 30 in the past few weeks, which keeps the price pretty similar to the $9.60 to $10.00/bu range that has been floating around for quite some time. Occasional better basis levels do come along so if you have a firm target in mind let your merchant know.
With a lot of action in other grain markets over the past week, mustard remains on its own island of quiet pricing. Slow changes have taken place as buyers seem content at these levels for now, but we are maybe seeing a slight uptrend in oriental. Growers also have been quiet on the sell side. Oriental spot mustard has quietly crept up to 28 cents for Forge and 26 cents for Cutlass for May to June movement. New crop is as high as 29 FOB for Forge or Vulcan and 27 cents now for Cutlass. Yellow mustard remains at 38 cents for spot and new crop. Brown trades at 27 to 28 cents FOB for spot and as high as 29 cents for new crop. Talk to your merchant about placing targets. We still have open acres for an IP Brown mustard program at a premium to commercial markets. Certified seed is still possibly available for delivery to your yard but call us as soon as possible as trucks are now delivering.
Milling quality brown flax bids saw some strength, hitting $15.00 FOB farm in certain locations. Number 1 quality is still trading around the $13.50 to $14.00 mark. Buyers are also still signing up new crop contacts on both golden and brown flax. The flax supply still has some uncertainties such as what quality is left in the bin and what is the quality of the flax that was left out over winter. If you are harvesting flax this spring gives us a call for selling options. Early reports are suggesting USA acres will be less this year with Canadian acres increasing. Canadian acres are expected to increase due to poor canola markets right now. This increase in Canadian acres looks like it will offset the reduction in US acres. It seems there are only a couple things left to affect the flax markets now; Black Sea region production, and uncertainties of Covid 19.
Soybeans and soybean oil followed gains in the corn and energy complex higher today. However, soybean meal was weighed down by reports of reduced feed demand in the livestock sector. Brazil continues to set soybean export records due to Chinese demand. This has virtually shut the door on North American soybean exports to China. Local soybean bids continue to hover around $9.75/bu picked up depending on location. Faba export demand is limited with small opportunities at $9.00 picked up and feed bids still hanging on near $6 picked up. New crop dry bean production contracts are getting close to sold out…still a few acres available. Call your Rayglen merchant for more info.
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