Flax prices are flat this week, with #1 quality still hanging around $11.75/bu delivered, while milling holds around $12.00/bu picked up for a June/July type movement. The latest StatsCan report that came out on Monday showed an increase in 16/17 carryout by 50,000 tonnes. This would explain why there is no rush for the market to push over $12.00/bu. Some analysts write that the 17/18 domestic crop will be closer to 175k, up from 150k. Ag Canada is projecting a 5% drop in Canadian flax plantings. New crop price indications show less than $12.00/bu. For those with yellow flax in the bins, we have seen some movement over the last week at $13.00/bu picked up in the yard on milling quality. The flax market will have some limiting factors on downside potential and there could be some gains before new crop is planted, however, keep in mind that the Black Sea region is still shipping out supplies.
Pea stocks at the end of December were large and we are expecting low export numbers, which will leave ending stocks at a record high. A bulk of exporting in December was destined for China and Chinese pricing has raised slightly since the Indian import tariff was announced. Indian prices for yellow peas have also been trading higher than they were when the tariff first came on. This may be an indication that yellow pea supplies aren’t as heavy as originally expected in India. There may be a chance that India returns to the market for yellow peas, but supplies will be large enough to support this demand if so. Green pea bids have more potential to stay strong as supplies aren’t as heavy. Looking at current bids, yellow peas are trading at $6.50 – $6.75/bu picked up. Green peas are at $8.50/bu delivered.
The canaryseed market has been very stagnant, with still no news of bids propping up anytime soon. Prices hang around 20c/lb FOB the farm again this week pending location. Overall, not much has changed as far as market news. We continue to wait for the usual January, February bump, that has yet to have happened. As the month of February rolls on, we hope to see some life, but only time will tell. There is very little movement happening right now on canaryseed and buyers seem to be comfortable with the small amounts they are buying; a very hand to mouth market. Once Thunder Bay starts opening you could see more movement so make sure you have your targets in.
What can you say about chickpeas that we have not already said the past few months? If you are holding onto unsold old crop in the bin, I would ask: “why?” The spot price on #1 large kabulis remains in the mid sixty range, though bids are much harder to track down as of late. The spot market does not project to get any better as the tap has almost run dry and buyers are aware, so they have moved onto other things. This could continue to diminish the price as opportunities dry up. For those that are seeding new crop kabulis should take a good look at new crop values. Bids are weakening this past week and 37 cents on #2 with an Act of God may still be tradable at time of publication. Contracts have been picked up in the yard, are based on 10 bushels/ acre and include discounts for lower grades. Touch base with your merchant if you are interested.
Soybean futures have enjoyed recent rallies based on new forecasts of drier Argentinian weather. At least half of the Argentinian crop is entering the reproductive phase during February when the crop is the most susceptible to inadequate rainfall. Brazil, being the largest soybean exporter in the world, is forecasted by the USDA to have a slightly smaller crop than last year with production at 112.5 MMT and exports of 65 MMT. A new USDA report will be released tomorrow (Thursday). Key aspects of the report will be US soybean carryout and the always present South American production levels. Pre-report estimates are a reduction in US exports and thus an increase in US carryout along with a decrease in Argentinian production and an increase in Brazilian production. Local soybean bids are a little over $10.45 FOB farm range depending on location. Local faba bean bids are in the $5.75/bu FOB farm range for feed and limited export opportunities at $6.25/bu FOB farm.
Lentils are stuck in rut that not even a John Deere quad track can pull out. Everyday export shipping periods get shorter and before we know it, new crop will be available. On top of this all, India has decided that more levies are needed. Despite this terrible news, buyers are still showing some interest in all classes of lentils, which growers should take a look at. Old crop reds are still being traded at 17.5-18¢ FOB farm with reasonable discounts on X3 and #3 quality. Large green old crop pricing remains at 28¢ for a number 2 and $0.30/lb for X2’s & #1’s. Small greens are trading between 26¢ – 27¢ delivered plant. Some buyers are starting to ask about new crop large green and red lentils, so if you have numbers in mind give us a call an we put some feelers on offer.
Feed barley is seeing some strength this week. Corn prices are moving up, which means feedlots aren’t buying as much and are looking to move to a cheaper alternative, which is feed barley. Another big factor is the cold weather we have been seeing lately as rations increase. As prices move up, buyers are becoming full for the short term and moving into April-May movement, which may be a problem for a lot of areas with the likely hood of road bans coming in March. With that being said, the premium lies with the farmers that can haul full loads in road ban season. Price indications this week are anywhere from $3.75-4.10 FOB farm depending on freight and what you can haul. Buyers are also wanting to see new crop offers, so talk to your merchant if that interests you.
The steady, sideways trend that is the oats market continues exactly that way this week. Prices have not done much either way for any oats due to a large supply and quiet demand for the time being. For high quality #2 CW oats, the price remains at the $2.40-$2.50/bu price point picked up in your yard. Demand is highest the closer you get to southwest Manitoba. For heavy and dry feed oats, the prices vary from $2.00-$2.25/bu picked up in your yard. If you are hoping to see higher you can always try putting in a firm target to try to catch a slightly above the market price. Be sure to give your merchant a call to discuss your options.
We have seen some added demand on the feed wheat side of the market over the past week, with values being indicated at $5.00-5.20/bu picked up on farm for good quality. Movement is into March/April and likely to get pushed further out sooner rather than later. Durum values have not seen much change this past week with old crop bids still hovering around $7.75/bu picked up on farm in the southeast areas of the province for #1 US grade, or 8.00/bu delivered plant for #1 CAN for high HVK quality. New crop values seen a bit of an uptick this past week, with a small program being done at $8.00/bu picked up on farm for #1 US grade, Sept/Dec movement. Growers interested in new crop should call in to see if more is able to be done, but keep in mind programs have and continue to be small, which means they need to be taken advantage of quickly when they arise. Spring wheat values have improved slightly over the past week for #1 13.5 protein hard red. Indications of $6.85-7.00/bu delivered plant depending on delivery window have been quoted. Growers should keep an eye on this market for developing opportunities that may arise and take advantage of them when they come.
The mustard market seems to have calmed this past week, as buyers are more stable on pricing. For now, anyways the day to day falling markets seem to be over. Spot trading continues this week as does great new crop options. Mustard continues to be a very strong new crop option. It ranks among the top on the list in comparison to many options. New crop bids are stable this week and are being bid around 32 cents/lb on oriental, 34 cents/lb on brown, and about 35 cents/lb on yellow. All new crop contracts are picked up in your yard and include a full Act of God clause. On the spot front, one exception remains; the very strong spot brown mustard price. Brown in the bin is trading at 44-46 cents/lb depending on movement, yellow stabilizes around 36 cents/lb, and oriental about 31 cents/lb depending on variety. All the spot prices are picked up in your yard and can be moved fairly quickly in certain cases. If you are looking for any seed, we have certified yellow and oriental, with some common brown available at very attractive values that include delivery to your yard. This seed can also be treated with a dual treatment. Call your merchant for more details.
Nearby canola futures closed the day at $498.20/MT, remaining below a recent resistance level of $500/MT. Notably, this level also seemed to be the former support level from mid-August through mid-December. Today (Wednesday) markets seen small losses of $1.60/MT on the March and $1.10/MT on the May. Traders are gearing up for the release of tomorrow’s USDA report, which is expected to see an estimated increase in Brazilian soybean production. Due to this factor, soy markets took a hit today, which offered some spillover into canola markets. Basis levels remain unchanged from last, with bids still hovering slightly over $11.00/bu delivered plant.
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