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Rayglen Market Comments – January 23, 2019

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Canadian oat production in 2018 decreased by 8% from the previous year due to less harvested area and poorer yields. Because of the smaller crop, supply is down by 5.5% to 4.2 MMT. The total domestic use of oats is expected to decline by 12.5% although more oats are being used in the milling market and stocks are expected to get tighter as the year goes on. A weaker Canadian dollar is making USA business more appealing to traders. Pricing on feed quality oats has been trading around $2.50 to $3.00/bu FOB farm depending on your location. As for a good quality #2 CW Oats, bids range from $3.25 to $3.50 FOB. The closer you are to Manitoba, the better pricing you will receive. It is best to call your Rayglen merchant for the most up to date pricing in your area.

The pea market has not been overly volatile the past couple of weeks. Overseas demand has been holding firm, mainly China, while India has not changed any import tariffs. India may not see any change until their upcoming election. However, we have seen more new crop contracts with an Act of God coming to light. Yellow peas are trading at $7/bu picked up on both old crop and new crop in a few areas of Saskatchewan. Green peas are still trading at $11/bu delivered; with new crop contracts closer to the $8.50 value. As for maple peas, there has been increased interest, with old crop trading at $15.50-16/bu and new crop values at $10.50-11/bu picked up. Seed is seldom to find but we do have limited supply available for those looking to get into maple peas. We also still have a supply of yellow and green varieties.

Another year of the Crop Production show came and went last week in Saskatoon and with that, prices remain sideways with no major changes. #1 quality of flax is still $13.25/bu delivered to plant, while milling quality has seen upwards of $13.50/bu picked up for movement out to June. Yellow flax prices remain soft, with indications of $13.00/bu picked up.  We are seeing a couple more bids pop up on new crop brown flax with an act of God at $12.50/bu. The long-term outlook for flax remains friendly as supplies tighten up and the possibility of limited production in 2019.  However, export shipments are keeping bids at a lull, along with supplies in the Black Sea region. Chinese prices have also come off the earlier highs as warehouses have received stock from late November shipments. For those with off-grade flax in the bins or higher moisture, we still have options, call your Rayglen merchant for more details.

Feed barley is flat this week. Buyers are bought up for January now and looking into February forward for product.  If you want to have your product moved out before the road bans come on, you should lock it up sooner than later, before buyers are full and can’t take it. Prices right now are sitting around $4.25-4.65/bu FOB farm for February-March movement. New crop prices are still floating around $4/bu FOB with an act of God, you may find a touch better if you are in the south west corner of Saskatchewan. We also have a great supply of barley seed. Whether you are looking for malt or feed varieties, we have options, so talk with your merchant for pricing and delivery.

The chickpea world still seems to be bubbling under a little as markets have held up in recent weeks. Current bids, with some sizing restrictions, are around 27 to 28 cents per pound on large kabuli types for nice #2 quality. If you have product that sizes up really well (lots of 9mm and 10mm), some price premiums can be found, but on the flip side discounts are seen on product that is much smaller, though we can still find a home for that product. New crop prices are a little tougher to peg down as buyer indications are pretty rare, but the last trading numbers were around 27 cents picked up with an act of God. Desi chickpeas we have a few buyers still looking for product so if you have samples get them sent into our office.

The canaryseed market is quiet this week, but export numbers show reason for a bit of optimism as we move closer to the next major export window in April/May. Year to date exports from Canada are at 53400 MT which is the strongest pace we have seen in the canaryseed market since 2014/2015. While it can be a tough market to gauge as far as ending stocks go, if we keep our current pace we can expect ending stocks to tighten and firm prices up a little bit. Current bids are showing $0.22/lb picked up in the yard while new crop bids hold flat at $0.20/lb for a Sept/Dec movement, including an Act of God.

Lentils markets remain on pace since the holiday season. Crop production didn’t produce much interest from buyers as most found farmers still have ample supply in the bin. Buyers did express some interest in new crop large green and reds though, which is encouraging. Large greens have traded at 24¢ for No. 1 and 22¢ for No. 2, while red lentils traded for 18¢ for No.2 both contracts were for new crop product, September to December movement and included an Act of God.  Most local traders told us India is still not buying a lot of lentils, rather, other countries are specking on India becoming a buyer at some point therefor, hoping for a price increase. India trade is telling Canadian markets that there is ample supply and that price will only slightly increase over time.

Mustard prices have remained in the same range again…as export demand continues to be weak, which may not improve in the near future. In talking with buyers in the trade, short term certainly appears to be flat for awhile. New crop bids on 2019 mustard have started trading. Mustard remains a very strong option held in comparison to other crops. All new crop is for the full crop year, has an act of god and are FOB. Shorter movement is available. Yellow is at 35 cents, brown continues at 30 and oriental is at 28 for Forge or Vulcan varieties while Cutlass is at 26 cents.  Spot pricing remains exactly the same as yellow mustard trades today at 35c/lb depending on movement and brown at 29-30c/lb.  Oriental Mustard remains at 25-26c/lb. All prices are picked up in the yard. For your mustard planting needs, call us, as we have certified seed available for new crop acres and have many options including untreated, treated, and delivery to your yard along with financing options.

Chatter from the Crop Production Show in Saskatoon indicates cereal acres will be up next year. That being said, this does not include durum. Expect a decrease in durum acres, but with carry still significant from 2017 & 2018 there should not be any leaps from those markets with staying power. Keep an eye on bid “specials” as an opportunity to market some of your stored production or putting targets in. Milling quality durum values range from $6.50-$7.00/bu for today through to 2020 location dependant and a bit of carry into JFM of 2020. Feed wheat markets remain at $5.50-$5.75/bu for heavy and dry and Spring Wheat bids in the low $7.00/bu  values FOB farm for #1, 13.5 pro quality. There is some carry in the deferred months if later movement is preferred.

Soybeans futures have slowly been trending upwards since mid-September, despite domestic fundamental headwinds. Little has changed in recent weeks, Brazil crop still forecasted to be smaller than previous which is mildly bullish. However South American harvest has begun, and their exports will suppress global soybean markets. China/U.S. trade tensions remain, but with the U.S. government shutdown any grain trade that may occur is going unreported. Local soybean bids are in the range of $10.50/bu fob farm. Faba bean market is still searching for export quality which is tougher and tougher to find. Local bids remain strong for exportable #2 at $11/bu fob farm and feed values are in the range of $6.50 fob farm. Dry bean market continues to hold firm based on Europe’s tariffs on US origin beans. New crop contracts now available.

We have not seen too much change in the canola market over the last while.  Nearby March futures are trading around 486/MT which pencils back to around $10.50-10.75/bu delivered plant depending on location and end user’s basis level.  Some areas are still posting basis levels that would equate back to $11.00/bu delivered plant for summer delivery for growers able to wait that long.  New crop values are still hovering around $10.50-10.75/bu delivered plant depending on location for Sept/Dec movement.  Later deliver is where the premiums will be found.  These values seem to keep hanging around with no major changes occurring over the past while.

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.