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Rayglen Market Comments – January 9, 2019

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Aside from maple peas, the pea market has not seen much change over the past week. Market prices on yellows are seeing $7/bu FOB in areas but, is freight sensitive. There is an opportunity for those in the South East of Saskatchewan at $7.25-7.50/bu picked up, however, movement is in the spring-summer timelines. Green peas are trading at $10.50/bu picked up in most areas; and recently, maple peas saw interest at $16/bu picked up. Planning for the 2019-2020 growing season, greens and yellows are a little quiet but maples have bids at $11/bu picked up with an Act of God. Reading through Stat reports, there has not been many change overseas. India still has not come back to the market or reduced any tariffs and China has been our main importer of peas. Rayglen also has a selection of pea seed, call your merchant for details.

Flax prices have not seen many changes over the last month. Movement of flax was a bit quieter in December, compared to November shipments. Inventories at terminal elevators have not increased and farmer deliveries are low, which suggests there is limited export business for the short term. Milling quality flax is $13.25-$13.50/bu picked up for further out movement, while #1 quality is indicating $13.00-$13.30/bu delivered. We have seen some new crop contract go out in the $12.00-$12.50/bu Fob range, with an Act of God. Yellow flax movement remains quiet with prices around $14.00/bu delivered to plant. Prices in China have relaxed somewhat but, buying has been steady. For the long term, once exports pick up, we should see Canadian prices also firm up due to limited production from 2018.

This week has brought strength in the feed barley market as prices have bumped up slightly. If the cold weather continues through the next couple of months, hopefully these prices can hold on or possibly rise a touch more. Bids for movement in the short-term are in the $4.50-$4.75/bu range picked up on your farm. Most of this appears to be heading west into feedlot alley so the best bids are in Alberta or western Saskatchewan. We do have buyers signing up new crop barley with options for an Act of God clause as well, so be sure to call your merchant or the office for a price picked up in your yard. Malt barley prices remain flat but may have some options for new crop. Rayglen also has some seed options available, so call your merchant today for more details.

Wheat markets have not seen much change over the last few weeks.  Feed wheat markets continue to hover around $5.55-5.70/bu picked up on farm depending on location and movement timeline for heavy and dry feed quality.  Milling hard red spring wheat is still hovering around $7.20-7.30/bu delivered plant for #1, 13.5 protein quality with the latter being more deferred delivery months.  Durum values have fluctuated mainly due to specials coming and going with buyers as they need product.  We have seen values as good as $7.25/bu delivered into spring months, but tonnage is limited and can fill quickly.  Once the special is filled values are then being quoted in the $6.50-6.70/bu range for #1 milling durum. New crop durum bids have popped up here and there with some business being done in the $7.00-7.40/bu range FOB for #1 US durum spec, again depending on location and delivery.  Growers contemplating carrying over some durum into next year may want to look at this as a decent hedging opportunity for new crop to get some product sold.

Red lentils have taken a bit of a jump in the southwest part of Saskatchewan, as some buyers were paying as high 20c/lb delivered into plant.  All other areas are still sitting at 18.5 picked up or 19c/lb delivered.  Canadian lentil shipping is on pace compared to last year’s numbers, but due to larger supply, prices will continue to struggle to make significant gains. The past 4 four months of lentil trade has remained steady but due to more supply the industry continues to grind through these markets.  The numbers for Aug-Nov shipping was a total of 588,261 MT, during the same time frame last year, the numbers were similar. The good news on this is that the trade has found more places to trade lentils to other than India.  Prices will likely bounce up and down for the short term until India’s election is over and they get a better idea on knowing the size of their Rabi Crop.  We have seen some new crop contracts trade in the 18c/lb range as well. Call us with your offers.

Oats this week seems to have a bit more demand than the last few weeks. We have seen a rush in the fall for good quality oats, and now we are seeing a rush for feed oats. With corn prices moving up and barley following, the next substitute for ranchers/feedlots is oats. Buyers right now are paying anywhere from $2.75-3.00/bu fob farm. The closer you get to Manitoba the better the price gets. Movement is also good with buyers looking to move product quickly. Milling oats are still holding in there at $4/bu delivered into Manitoba for May-July movement. Offers are a great way to catch a high in the market so if you have a number in mind talk with your merchant about posting one.

We have not seen much for big action on the canola market as of late. There have been some small blips up and down attributed to soybean market spillover and movements on the Loonie but vastly things are pretty unchanged. Some recent approvals in China regarding GMO canola may help to bolster the market as sales to China open up further down the road, giving growers more options. Currently we have bids rolling around $10.25 to $10.50/bu range depending on location. Numbers for the fall of 2019 are similar to slightly less. Poor moisture conditions in South America may help the soybean price which could give strength somewhat to canola prices in the foreseeable future. Watch for small opportunities on rallies with an unstable Loonie and tightening basis levels as buyers look to cover sales.

Chickpeas had little activity this week as news continues to stream from India of a dry Rabi crop. Typically, the week before the annual Crop Production Show markets seem quiet in the hopes that this event could create some clarity in the markets. It is clear that chickpea acres will be down next year but, it is not clear if this will make anything more than a subtle difference in their worth when considering the amount of carry that will be brought over. There has been a slight bump in values this week with limited volume so call if any interest.  Orion/Leaders trading between 28-29c/lb FOB farm #2 quality and Frontiers at a 2c/lb discount. High green and damaged chickpeas are also in demand being valued at 18-20c/lb FOB farm depending on location. Desis are still on the table if you are a seller. Call your broker for more information.

Canary seed markets have bounced back and forth the last couple months between 20c/lb and 23c/lb. Most of Canadian production is sold to Mexico and European markets and their weak currency has not supported an uptick prices. Sentiment is seller will hold onto their production till a stronger market reappears and the buyer remains steadfast on their bids knowing the volume is out there. Current pricing is trading at 22c/lb picked up and new crop is starting at 20c/lb FOB with an Act of God.

Mustard continues flat this week……and we are starting to wonder if this won’t be the normal for quite awhile. Export demand continues to be weak, which may not improve in the near future.  Black Sea exports continue to be strong, holding our exports in check. New crop bids on 2019 mustard have started trading. With predicted acres being down this year, this is becoming a very strong option. Check with us about pricing and movement windows. Spot pricing remains exactly the same as yellow mustard trades today at 34-35c/lb depending on movement and brown at 29-30c/lb.  Oriental Mustard remains at 25-26c/lb. All prices are picked up in the yard. For your mustard planting needs, call us, as we have certified seed available for new crop acres and have many options including untreated, treated, and delivery to your yard along with financing options.

Soybean market has slowly staged a comeback since it’s mid-September lows, that said, it’s set to test a chart resistance point. Soybean market has recently been fueled by expectations of reduced production from Brazil and progress in China trade talks. Overall fundamentals remain bearish and increased export numbers are what will be needed to change this view. No new news to drive the market given that the USDA didn’t release its Jan 11th WASDE report due to the shutdown of the USDA data services by the U.S. Government. Local soybean bids are in the range of $10.85/bu fob farm. Faba bean market is still searching for export quality which is tougher and tougher to find. Local bids remain strong for exportable #2 at $11/bu fob farm and feed values are in the range of $6.50 fob farm. Dry bean market continues to hold firm based on Europe’s tariffs on US origin beans. Buyers looking for uncontracted beans now that we’re into the New Year, call Rayglen for details and information on seed.

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.