Even with the StatsCan report out on lentils, there is still some uncertainty in the industry. The report shows an 8% decrease in seeded acres, but does not differentiate between classes. Reports from various analysts predict the green lentil acres will be increased, while reds will be down more than 8%. It is important to recognize that there will be a significant carryover of red lentils, which will put the 2018/19 supplies 12% heavier than 2017/18. If export volumes do rebound, there will still be plenty of red lentils left at the end of 2019. Green lentils supplies are predicted to be up 44% from last year. Prices on lentils remain sideways, with old and new crop red lentils in the 16.5-17 cents FOB farm range, while large greens are 26/24 cents picked up in select areas. For those with lower grade lentils left in the bins, there are marketing opportunities right now to get them moved. Once new crop comes off, we could see a decrease in demand in the old crop. With seeding getting started, make sure you are up to date on the market by receiving our text or email alerts.
Soybean prices remain fairly sideways this week with old crop in the $10.75- $11.00/bu FOB range. Heavy rains in Argentina continue to complicate their soy harvest. The country is already trying to stabilize their peso, while their cash crop is being threatened. So, while prices in Saskatchewan have remained sideways, there is a fine line on which way this market could go. Faba Bean acres are also predicting to decrease as much as 37% as per the latest StatsCan report, but prices are still holding at $6.00-$6.50/bu picked up. Alberta reports are suggesting Faba Bean acres will increase. Faba Beans are generally used as animal feed due to the high protein levels, but since acres have not been consistent through the years, they have had trouble catching on as a main source of feed.
Barley hasn’t seen a whole lot of change in the market this week. Old crop levels are still sitting at $4.50 – $4.85 picked up on your farm depending on location. The farther South West you are in Saskatchewan the stronger the bid. According to STAT reports we may start to see more rejected malt hit the feed channels during the summer months. Typically, we also see feed demand pull back a little during this time. Therefore, if you have feed in the bins you are needing movement on before harvest, it may be beneficial to take advantage of today’s pricing. New crop values are trading at $3.85-$4.00 FOB farm depending on movement dates, with an Act of God. New crop malt prices have been seldom and when comparing to the feed market of $4 with no discounts – feed is looking favorable.
Canola is up today with it sitting at $528.00 per MT as we write, which is up $3.60/MT from previous closing day. July futures are up ever so slightly as well, with it sitting around $531.50 per MT, up $3.00/MT from yesterdays close. Canola is getting some help from our lower Canadian Dollar, making the commodity more attractively priced to importers. Obviously, there are definite weather concerns out there with many areas across the prairies lacking some moisture and many producers needing some showers to get the canola crop off to a good start. It is too early to say what the weather will do throughout the summer, but producers are definitely looking for some help from mother nature. Markets will likely not fluctuate heavily due to weather concerns yet, but keep an eye on it down the line.
Mustard prices have not changed a whole lot as of late. In the spot market, brown is the most attractively priced with a few buyers still willing to pick up product over 40 cents/lb at the yard. For those with product still in the bin this might be time to take advantage, for a couple reasons; the spot market is a little unsteady with a few buyers throwing lower bids out, the increased seeded acres in mustard this year will be heavily weighted to brown, and fall pricing for brown is at 33 cents today. Spot price on yellow and oriental have not changed much lately with yellow at 34 to 35 cents and oriental around 28 to 29 in most cases. New crop production contracts on yellow and oriental basically mirror the spot prices today. The weather market may yet play a role here in the mustard world in the short term as the heaviest mustard production areas are dry, so we will keep an eye on the forecast.
Canaryseed market has picked up a little as of late with a recent uptick in bids ranging between 20.5 – 21 cent/lb picked on farm. As seeded acres subside from the peak of 15/16 with every consecutive year creeping lower than the previous, so do the carryout numbers as exports/disposition are fairly static year over year. Canadian 18/19 stocks to use are forecasted right around 20%, which from a long-term perspective is neutral. An important aspect to canaryseed is the correlation between our Canadian Dollar and the Mexican Peso. Mexico represents over 20% of global canaryseed imports, and since the beginning of April our dollar has continued to aggressively gain value against the Peso. Canadian exports could be moderately buoyed this year with shipments to Brazil due to an Argentinian production shortfall. The next seasonal exporting window generally occurs in November with local farmgate prices showing strength a few months prior. Recent bids have been for prompt delivery, so call your merchant if you’re considering moving product.
Flax prices remain flat this week with no major changes from last week. The Special Crop letter says that “bids are remaining relatively flat as flax needed to fill current export shipments have already been assembled early”. Even with StatsCan reporting a 5% decrease in seeded area on flax this year, the yields could cover the loss of acres and we could be 8% larger than last year. Prices on old crop #1 flax are $12.50/bu delivered to plant, and $12.50 to maybe $12.75/bu FOB Farm on milling quality. New crop prices are still floating around that $12/bu FOB Farm with an Act of God. Old crop yellow flax is still at $13/bu and $13.50/bu on new crop.
HRS wheat markets have started the week slowly. However, the feed markets are still strong with prices in the southeast close to, if not, $6.00/bu FOB. On the westside, $5.80 for feed still trades. The durum markets seem to be quiet right now with a few trades at $7.15-7.25 delivered. We do have a buyer looking for No. 1 CWAD with low protein at the $7.00 value, which is rare. The markets do not seem to be interested in low protein wheats as the discounts have not changed all winter and spring. We have heard as high as 8¢ per 1/10th of a point to as low as 4¢ per 1/10th, at these discounts rates the feed prices look very attractive. No. 1 wheat grade is just that, a grade. Just as protein only matters when there is no high protein grain available. When marketing, look at the numbers that matter; price and supply. Right now, wheat stocks are long and we have some of the best quality Durum we have seen in a long time, and with ample supply. This means lower pricing even though it is good quality. Same statement is true for the wheat, No. 1 CWRS with low protein is basically a feed this year. This is one of those years where we will not see pricing reflecting the quality of the grain.
Very little news on old crop Kabuli chickpeas as on-farm supply is almost nonexistent. Most left on farm is currently being put back into the ground as a higher number of farmers are getting into the fields for seeding. Although, indications are still showing premiums on old crop, expectations are that those numbers will continue to make their way lower to reflect new crop prices. This is due, in large part to significant acreage increases around the world. Contracts are still available in most areas for new crop Kabuli’s in the $0.29-$0.30/lb range. This is based on across the board #2 pricing picked up in your yard for Sept/Dec movement and a full AOG.
Pea markets remain fairly stable this week, with little fluctuation in demand or pricing. Yellow varieties are still tickling the $7.00/bu mark FOB farm in the majority of the province, with slight premiums in Southeast Sask. Green markets continue to pick product off at $8.50-8.75/bu FOB farm across the province on large size (Raezer and/or Striker variety). There are many buyers out there looking for higher bleach, off grade and small sized (Pluto and/or Patrick) greens as well, at very attractive values. Keep in the loop with Rayglen text and/or email alerts this spring, and don’t hesitate to call while on the tractor!
Oats have stayed in a very tight trading range this week – this has been ongoing for quite some time now. Not a lot of trades have been taking place recently, but with that being said, we do have active buyers for both milling quality and feed oats. For #2CW oats, bids can be as high as $2.50/bu picked up in your yard depending on location. On the feed side, as long as the oats are heavy and dry, bids range from $2.00-$2.25/bu picked up. On larger lots, buyers may have some room to go slightly higher on bids, so don’t be afraid to put out an offer at your target price and see what they can do.
Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.