There has been quite a bit of chatter this week regarding the trade relations with Saudi Arabia. Their main state wheat buying agency had announced on Tuesday that they will no longer accept Canadian wheat and barley. However, reading through stat reports this is unlikely to affect us much, as Canada has shipped zero tonnes of barley to Saudi Arabia in the 2017/2018 marketing year. Looking at prices for the week; feed barley is trading at values around $4.35 – $4.80/bu picked up depending on location of grain. The closer to the Alberta border the more aggressive the pricing is (may even have pricing above $4.80/bu). We still have some new crop bids available as well, speak with your merchant on pricing/movement options.
Flax prices are sideways this week with milling in the $12.50/bu range picked up and #1 quality $12.25/bu delivered to plant. Analysts report that western Canada estimates yields of 22.5/bu acre on 2018 flax. The ending stocks are still in question and the smaller 2018 crop could mean restrictions on exports and prices likely to remain supported. The US crop continues to look positive with ratings at 82% good or excellent. US flax prices are keeping Canadian bids low for now, but we could see prices edge higher once the US looks north for supplies. The first estimate out of Russia came last week at 31% larger than last year for seeded acres. This in turn could limit upside potential for Canadian flax, but there is still uncertainty on Black Sea region yields. China flax prices remain under pressure and inventories are comfortable. For those looking for bin space, plan ahead as movement is extended out.
Soybean Nov futures have been hovering around near-term resistance at $9.00. This level is attributed to good US crop conditions and the ongoing trade tensions with China. Currently, the soybean crop is estimated at 67 percent in good-to-excellent condition. Year-over-year there is still a substantial improvement with good-to-excellent crops up 7 percentage points from 2017 and 1 percentage point from the five-year average of 66 percent. Industry yield expectations are aligning at 49.7 bushels per acre which is up from the current USDA projection of 48.5 bpa. Local Canadian bids currently show good pricing opportunity at $10.40/bu picked up on farm dependent on freight area. Faba beans are once again showing early indications of select export opportunities. $7.00/bu picked is currently available based on sample matching strict export quality standards. Local faba feed bids are in the $6.00/bu picked up on farm dependent on freight location. Dry bean crops are in good shape across North America; this will ultimately put some pressure on local grower bids. Canadian buyers are aggressively looking for product so contact your Rayglen merchant if you are looking to market.
Canary seed is still maintaining the same prices it has for the past couple weeks. Current indications are showing from 21 cents picked up at the farm gate to 22 cents delivered to plant or processing facility. The acres are low and the dry conditions raise some concerns about production numbers so we will see if this market heads up or if the hidden tonnes in bins from years previous production still weigh heavily on the price.
Canola has shown some recent strength but is largely following the soybean market. That’s not to say that recent hot dry weather in the Canadian Prairies hasn’t helped buoy the market a little. We are all still working with the Stats Can 22.7 million seeded acres and so far, a forecasted decrease by 1.5 bpa yield to 39.45 bpa. Everything being considered, it’s forecasted that we’ll decrease carry outs and end up with an approximate 24% stocks to use ratio for 2018/19; this would be down 4% from 2017/18. Local basis has adjusted for harvest and generally sits in that negative $25/MT delivered range. November canola futures are likely to experience head winds at $520-$525/mt barring some big change in fundamental news. Current futures levels of $510/mt are still generating $11/bu delivered bids which is pretty good for harvest and taking some risk off the table.
The chickpea market has been running a little sideways the past week or so after the prices took a bit of a tumble down a few weeks ago. Currently on large kabulis we have some new crop bids at 24 to maybe 25 cent range across the board pricing on new crop acres including an act of God. These bids are not widespread or open for large tonnage but if you have interest, we may still be able to find some room to squeeze you in. Crop reports show the chickpeas in Sask to be ok on quality but dryness over the past couple of weeks may steal a few bushels away on the final tonnage. If you are one of the handful of growers still in the desi chickpea market we do have some buyer interest at some decent looking pricing options, call the office for more details.
This week we are seeing a bit of life to the oats market which is a change since oat pricing has been dead for so long. With the shortage of feed grains right now from it being so hot and dry in the key feed growing areas, buyers are starting to look for alternatives from barley and wheat and oats is next in line. Make sure if you have oats in the ground or have some stored in a bin to let your merchant know so they can keep you updated on prices or throw an offer up and see if it triggers. Market prices today are sitting around $2.25-2.40/bu fob farm.
We will soon discover exactly what our lentil supply situation looks like as harvest has started across the prairies with lentils being the first crop many producers will take off. Some pre-harvest estimates are floating around 24 bu/acre. Speaking with a few producers that are out in the fields we have heard yields anywhere from 15-30 bu/acre, which takes us close to those pre-harvest estimates. Based on this information, Western Canada is going to have a very high number of lentils on farm in the near future. Current bids for red lentils remain in the 14.5-15.5 cents/lb delivered range depending on the closest delivery point to you. Large green lentils are tradable today at 20 cents/lb picked up in your yard for a #2 quality. News came out of India last week that they are looking into restricting the import of lentils that have been sprayed pre-harvest with glyphosate. While nothing firm has come out of the situation since, we do want to make everyone aware of the possibility and allow you to make the best, educated decision for your farm. We have seen some producers switching to Reglone for their desiccation to offset the potential market risks.
Wheat markets have heated up a bit over the last 2 weeks. The MN board has been showing a bit of pop since news of USDA projections of EU and Russia reduction in acres. CWRS valued FOB farm at $7.20-$7.40 O/N/D location dependent. Durum harvest is starting up with yield suspect to be average. All things considered, we are seeing opportune interest in for 4th quarter movement of 2018. Believe this is to cover sales made earlier in the year with the anticipation of lower values in the 4th quarter as opposed to a solid market move. Southern Sask bids for #1 CWAD FOB farm range from $7-$7.25 for S/O/N and a bit of carry with $7.25-$7.50 for J/F/M. Durum market this year would be opportunity driven so watch for that rather than solid moves.
There is not much exciting news in the pea market this week to speak of. The markets have been quiet overseas with not a whole lot of buying interest. This is reflected on the current market prices. Yellow peas have been trading around $6.00/bu fob the farm for a good quality #2. Green peas have interest at $8.00/bu fob the farm also for a good quality #2. Maple peas have been doing the best out of all of the peas and have been sitting around $11.25/bu fob the farm, however this market can get saturated very quickly, so those with any in the bins should be talking to your Rayglen merchant. There have been reports that some peas have been harvested with average yields, but it is still early in the 2018 harvest. In Saskatchewan, the growing conditions was rated 70% good to excellent. This is on par with the long-term average.
Mustard has stayed relatively stable this week even as harvest approaches quickly. There are some yield reports starting to trickle in from southern areas, but it’s very early at this point. Production contracts on yellow mustard are around 33 cents, 32 cents on brown mustard, and oriental at 27 cents/lb. This will be coming to an end shortly, as act of god contracts have already been tough to get. You may still be able to get one for hail only for instance. On old crop; brown mustard has slipped a little, trading around 32c/lb and yellow has been around 33 to 34 c/lb and up to 35c/lb for later movement. Old crop oriental has been quiet and has been sitting around the 27 c/lb mark. It is best to call the office and speak with one of our merchants as you may find some quick movement if it’s needed for space.
Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.